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Lecture 1. 2
Instructors: Farshid Maghami ASL and Lee Maclin Email: fma1@nyu.edu Course Web sites:
Blackboard http://homepages.nyu.edu/~fma1
Teaching Assistant: Junyoep Park Email: junyoep@gmail.com Office Hours: Mondays 5-7 pm Office Location:
WWH 606
Lecture 1. 3
First Class: September 12, 2005, Last Class: December 12, 2005. There will be no class on Columbus Day (October 10, 2005). We will make it up on Wednesday 11/23/05.
Homework and Exam: There will be six homework sets which will be assigned every other week. Students must write up and turn in their solutions individually within one week. Computer assignments can be solved by C/C++/C#, MATLAB, R. For other tools, please coordinate with the TA or the instructor. There will be one final exam (no mid-term). Final grade will be evaluated based on homework solutions (30%) and the final exam (70%). Lecture Notes and Homework will be posted on the course website as they become available
Lecture 1. 4
Textbooks: Lectures are drawn from many sources including the following books: 1. Alexander, C. Market Models, John Wiley and Sons, 2001 2. Brockwell, P.J., Davis, R.A., Introduction to Time Series and Forecasting, Springer 3. Javaheri, A. Inside Volatility Arbitrage : The Secrets of Skewness Wiley 4. Tsay, R. S., Analysis of Financial Time Series, Wiley, 2002 5. Wilmott, P. Derivatives: The Theory and Practice of Financial Engineering, Wiley Frontiers in Finance Series 6. Pandit S.M., Wu S.M., Time Series and System Analysis with Applications. Krieger Publishing, Malabar, FL, 2001 7. Hamilton J. D. Time Series Analysis. Princeton University Press, 1994 A number of research articles will be posted on the course webpage.
Expected Background
Lecture 1. 5
Prior knowledge of Linear Algebra, Probability and Statistics is required I assume you have taken the following courses: Derivative Securities Continuous Time Finance Scientific Computing / Computing for Finance Programming in C/C++ or MATLAB/R is required
Lecture 1. 6
Arbitrage is a riskless profit. Arbitrage Strategy is a trading strategy that locks in a riskless profit.
Strategies and Implementation Process (Cointegration based pairs trading, Volatility trading, ) Financial Econometrics (Time Series Review and Volatility modeling)
Statistical Arbitrage covers any trading strategy which uses statistical tools and time series analysis to identify approximate arbitrage opportunities while evaluating the risks inherent in the trades considering the transaction costs and other practical aspects.
Market Microstructur Theory (Transaction costs and Optimal Control, Algorithmic Trading,) Risk Management (Practical Risk Measurement and Management Technics)
Farshid Magami Asl G63.2707 - Financial Econometrics and Statistical Arbitrage
Course Outline
Financial Econometrics (8 weeks) Time Series Models Review and Analysis Volatility and Correlation Models in Financial Systems Calibration and Estimation Methods Cointegration and Market Microstructure in Practice (3 weeks) Cointegration and Pairs Trading Transaction Costs, and Market Friction Trade Execution Strategies Practical Simulation and Risk Management (1 week) More on Trading Strategies (1-2 week)
Lecture 1. 7
Lecture 1. 8
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The unpredictability inherent in asset prices is the main feature of financial modeling. Because there is so much randomness, any mathematical model of a financial asset must acknowledge the randomness and have a probabilistic foundation.
G63.2707 - Financial Econometrics and Statistical Arbitrage
Lecture 1. 9
There are three general types of analysis used in finance and trading
1. Fundamental Analysis 2. Technical Analysis 3. Quantitative Analysis
Return in financial assets By return we mean the percentage growth in the value of an asset, together with accumulated dividends, over some period:
Return =
Change in value of the asset + accumulated cashflows Original value of the asset
Si +1 S i Si
Denoting the asset value on the i-th day by Si, the return from day i to day i+1 is given by
Ri =
Farshid Magami Asl
Lecture 1. 10
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Supposing that we believe that the empirical returns are close enough to Normal for this to be a good approximation. For start, we write the returns as a random variable drawn from a Normal distribution with a known, constant, non-zero mean and a known, constant, 1 1 non-zero standard deviation: N ( 0 ,1) = e 2 2
Ri =
Farshid Magami Asl
Lecture 1. 11
Time scale t Mean return over period t is Standard deviation over period t is
t 1/ 2
X
Ri =
Si +1 Si = t + t 1/ 2 Si
Basic Review
STOCHASTIC PROCESS:
Lecture 1. 12
A stochastic process is a collection of random variables {X t ( ), t } defined on a probability space ( , F , P ) . For a fixed
x 10 1.3
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1.1
Time
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Time
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Lecture 1. 13
Definition
Time Series:
Lecture 1. 14
A time series is a stochastic process where is a set of discrete points in time. In other words, it is a discrete time, continuous state process. In this course we consider
3
= { all integers}
Xk
-1
-2
-3
X1 X2 X3
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40
-4
k
Farshid Magami Asl G63.2707 - Financial Econometrics and Statistical Arbitrage
Lecture 1. 15
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2- Understanding the statistical characteristics and building trading strategies based on them
Farshid Magami Asl G63.2707 - Financial Econometrics and Statistical Arbitrage
Basic Review
An Example of a Time Series:
Lecture 1. 16
Xk
1 0 8 6 4 2 0 -2 -4 -6 -8
-1 0
1 0 0 0
2 0 0 0
3 0 0 0
4 0 0 0
5 0 0 0
6 0 0 0
k
10 8 6 4 2 0 -2 -4
7 0 0 0
10 8 6 4 2 0 -2 -4 -6 -8 -10 -10 -8 -6 -4 -2 0 2 4
Xk
10 8 6 4 2 0 -2 -4
10
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8 6 4 2 0 -2 -4
Xk
Xk
Xk-1
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-6 -8 -10 -10 -8 -6 -4 -2 0 2 4
Xk-2
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-6 -8 -10 -10 -8 -6 -4 -2 0 2 4
Xk-3
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-6 -8 -10 -10 -8 -6 -4 -2 0 2
Xk-10
4 6 8 10
Lecture 1. 17
Let {Xt} be a time series. The autocovariance function of process {Xt} for all integers r and s is:
X (r , s ) = cov( X r , X s )
X (r , s ) = E[( X r E ( X r ))( X s E ( X s ))]
X (r , s ) = E[ X r X s X r E ( X s ) X s E ( X r ) + E ( X r ) E ( X s )] X (r , s) = E ( X r X s ) E ( X r ) E ( X s ) E ( X s ) E ( X r ) + E ( X r ) E ( X s ) X (r , s ) = E ( X r X s ) E ( X r ) E ( X s )
2 Note that X (r , r ) = E ( X r ) E ( X r ) = var( X r ) 0 2
=0
Autocovariance Function
Lecture 1. 18
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Lag
Farshid Magami Asl G63.2707 - Financial Econometrics and Statistical Arbitrage
Lecture 1. 19
A strict (strong) stationary time series {Xt , t=1,2,,n} is defined by the condition that realizations (X1, X2, , Xn) and (X1+h, X2+h, , Xn+h) have the same joint distributions for all integers h and n>0.
i.e. Cov(Xr,Xs) only depends on r and s and not on t. Note: If {Xt} is stationary, then
X (r, s) = X (r s, s s) = X (r s,0) = X (r s)
Define h=r-s
X (r s) = X (h) = cov(X t , X t +h )
Farshid Magami Asl
Definition Note:
Lecture 1. 20
Stationary Process
Lecture 1. 21
Stationary Process
Lecture 1. 22
Non-Stationary Process
200 250 300
4 2 0 -2 -4 -6 0
Mean-Reversion
50 100 150
Stationary Process
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Lecture 1. 23
If bad
5. Generate forecasts (find predictive distributions) and invert the transformations performed in 2. Note for option pricing: 6. Find a risk neutral version of the model 7. Obtain predictive distributions under the risk neutral model
Farshid Magami Asl G63.2707 - Financial Econometrics and Statistical Arbitrage
Lecture 1. 24
E ( X t ) = 2 and
2
2 X (r , s) =
r = s ( 2 < ) otherwise
Note that E[Xt Xs]=0 for t=s If Xt and Xs independent for t=s
5
Xk
0 WN
-5 -5
Xk-1
0 5
Lecture 1. 25
2 X (r , s) = 0
r=s otherwise
( 2 < )
Lecture 1. 26
St = j =1 X j
t
(Integrated Process)
Sk
Sk-1
10
Lecture 1. 27
St = j =1 X j
t
{Xt}
IID(0, )
2
Lecture 1. 28
Yt = X
+ X
t 1
Where could be any constant. This time series model is called a firstorder moving average process, denoted MA(1). The term Moving Average comes from the fact that Yt is constructed from a weighted sum of the two most recent values of Xt.
=0.5
4 2 0 -2 -4 -4
Yk
Yk-1
-2 0 2 4
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Lecture 1. 29
Yt = X t + X t 1
Lecture 1. 30
= X
t 1
+ Z
Where | |<1 and Zt is uncorrelated with Xs for each s<t. This time series model is called a first-order Autoregressive process, denoted AR(1). It is easy to show that E(Xt)=0
5
Random Walk
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10 5 0 -5
Xk
-10 -10
Xk-1
-5 0 5 10
Building Blocks of Financial Models Autoregressive Process (Is it Stationary?) {Zt } is WN(0, 2), and X t = X t 1 + Z
Lecture 1. 31
Lecture 1. 32
X
30 20 10 0 -10
= X
t 1
+ Z
t
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=1
Random Walk
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10 5 0 -5 -10
= 0.9
AR(1)
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4 2 0 -2 -4
= 0.1
AR(1)
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Lecture 1. 33
Classical Decomposition
X t = mt + St + Yt
Original Time series (Nonstationary) Trend Seasonal component Stationary Time series (zero-mean)
St+d=St
j =1
Sj = 0
Most observed time series are non-stationary but they can be transformed to stationary processes.
Farshid Magami Asl G63.2707 - Financial Econometrics and Statistical Arbitrage
Lecture 1. 34
Classical Decomposition
X t = mt + St + Yt
^ ^
Idea of transformation is to estimate mt and St by mt and St, then work with the stationary process:
X t* = X t m t + S t
Assume there is no seasonal component (St=0)
X t = mt + Yt
Consider a parametric form for mt e.g.
m t = a0 + a1t + a2t 2
Using observed data X1, X2, Xn, choose 0, 1, 2 to minimize
(X
t =1
mt )
G63.2707 - Financial Econometrics and Statistical Arbitrage
Lecture 1. 35
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Lecture 1. 36
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Lecture 1. 37
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mt = 6.1513 + 0.0004t
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Lecture 1. 38
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Lecture 1. 39
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Forecast
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Lecture 1. 40
Forecast
Convert back the difference in the Forecast of the model
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Lecture 1. 41
Forecast
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Lecture 1. 42
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Lecture 1. 43
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