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INDIA
QUARTERLY UPDATE | OCTOBER | 2013
Accelerating success.
3Q 2013 | OFFICE
ECONOMIC INDICATORS
Gross Domestic Product at Factor Cost
12.0% 10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0%
Oct - Dec 09
Apr - Jun 12
Oct - Dec 10
Oct - Dec 11
Jan - Mar 09
Jul - Sep 09
Jan - Mar 10
Jan - Mar 12
Jun - Sep 12
Oct - Dec 12
Jul - Sep 10
Jan - Mar 11
Jul - Sep 11
Apr - Jun 09
Apr - Jun 10
ECONOMIC BAROMETER
Sep-12
REPO RATE REVERSE REPO RATE CRR INFLATION (WPI)1 PLR2 DEPOSIT RATE3 Exchange RATE INR - USD 54.31 63.30 8.00% 7.00% 4.50% 8.07% 9.75% - 10.50% 8.00% - 9.25%
Sep-13
7.50% 6.50% 4.00% 6.46% 9.70% - 10.25% 7.50% - 9.00%
Slowing economic growth, rising inflation, depreciating rupee and volatile equity markets further intensified the economic risk in Indian markets. Concerned with the increasing inflation, the Reserve Bank of India increased the repo and reverse repo rate by 25 basispoints. In 3Q 2013, relocation and consolidation were the primary demand generators for commercial office space. Overall demand for leasing commercial real estate softened due to the conservative expansion plans of most companies. The six major cities i.e. Mumbai, NCR, Bengaluru, Chennai, Kolkata and Pune recorded an overall absorption of around 6.2 million sq ft which is approximately 20% lesser than the last quarter absorption of around 8 million sq ft. COLLIERS VIEW : The economic environment in India is expected to remain uncertain due to overall global economic conditions and upcoming elections in 2014. We anticipate moderate leasing demand across the cities in next coming quarters. Inspite of moderate demand, rental values are expected to remain stable due to limited supply as developers deferring completion of their projects and refrained from adding more speculative supply in the market.
INR- Euro
71.30
84.17
* Rebase to 100
BSE Sensex
Apr - Jun 11
Realty Index
Exchange Rates
80 75 70 65 60 55 50 1-Jul-13 11-Jul-13 21-Jul-13 31-Jul-13 10-Aug-13 20-Aug-13 30-Aug-13 9-Sep-13 19-Sep-13
Note : All values in the above tables are as on 15th of September 2012 and 2013 1 Wholesale Price Index 2 SBI Prime Lending Rate 3 SBI interest rate < INR 1 crore Term Deposits for 1 Year
USD
Euro
www.colliers.com
Apr -Jun13
CBD 1%
MumBAI
4Q 2013F
Andheri East
Navi Mumbai
Micro Market
Rental Values
225 - 260 90 - 125 225 - 320 140 - 180 80 - 90 55 - 75 100 - 120 175 - 225 80 - 110 175 - 210 50 - 100
% Change
QoQ
0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
CBD Andheri East BKC Lower Parel Malad Navi Mumbai Powai Worli/ Prabhdevi Goregaon/ JVLR Kalina Thane / LBS
COLLIERS VIEW : A number of corporate are looking for consolidation and relocation options in order to optimise their real estate costs. Overall rental values are expected to remain stable except for SBD where a marginal increase can be witnessed in premium projects due to limited supply.
5,000
1Q2009
1Q2010
1Q2011
1Q2008
1Q2012
Note: Available Supply: Total Grade A office space being marketed for sale or lease in surveyed quarter. Grade A Rental/Capital Values: Indicative asking price for Grade A office space. Prime Office Average Rental Trends: Average market rental values for Grade A properties.
Note: All the rentals shown above are indicative Grade A rentals in INR per sq ft per month.
Colliers International |
1Q2014F
1Q2015F
1Q2013
p. 3
Demand and supply equilibrium had kept the overall price levels in check, and rental and capital values remained stable during the surveyed quarter.
Lower Parel
Malad
Powai
Goregaon / JVLR
200
Worli/ Prabhdevi
Kalina
CBD
BKC
Jasola 59%
Saket 29%
delhi
4Q 2013F
40,000
30,000
20,000
10,000
Micro Market
Rental Values
231 - 475 150 - 250 140 - 190 100 - 125 65 - 75
% Change
QoQ
0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
150 100 50
Note: All the rentals shown above are indicative Grade A rentals in INR per sq ft per month.
COLLIERS VIEW : Amid economic uncertainties, occupiers are likely to remain cautious, thus demand is expected to remain moderate in the coming quarter. Rental and capital values are expected to remain stable with an upward bias due to limited supply of Grade A office space in Delhi.
1Q2008
1Q2009
1Q2010
1Q2011
1Q2012
1Q2013
1Q2014F
Note: Available Supply: Total Grade A office space being marketed for sale or lease in surveyed quarter. Grade A Rental/Capital Values: Indicative asking price for Grade A office space. Prime Office Average Rental Trends: Average market rental values for Grade A properties.
p. 4
| Colliers International
1Q2015F
Rental values for Grade A office space remained unchanged during the quarter. Capital values remained stable, as the city witnessed almost no strata-title sales in secondary markets due to increased circle rates.
250
Manesar 26%
Gurgaon
4Q 2013F
20,000
15,000
10,000
5,000
MG Road
National Highway 8
Manesar
Micro Market
Rental Values
95 - 140 85 - 140 50 - 65 48 - 65 97 - 125 45 - 50 75 - 78 45 - 65
% Change
QoQ
-2% 0% -4% -2% 0% 0% 2% 0%
YoY
-2% 13% -9% -10% 13% -17% 2% 10%
MG Rd Golf Course Rd Institutional Sect. (18,32,44) Golf Course Rd Ext./Sohna Rd NH8 Manesar Cyber City Udyog Vihar & Industrial Sectors
Manesar (IT) 10,000 Capital Values -INR Per Sq.ft. 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 1Q2015F 0
100
80
60
40
20
1Q2010
1Q2008
Note: Available Supply: Total Grade A office space being marketed for sale or lease in surveyed quarter. Grade A Rental/Capital Values: Indicative asking price for Grade A office space. Prime Office Average Rental Trends: Average market rental values for Grade A properties.
Note: All the rentals shown above are indicative Grade A rentals in INR per sq ft per month.
1Q2009
Colliers International |
1Q2012
1Q2014
1Q2011
1Q2013
p. 5
Industrial Sectors (Sec. 1-9, 57-60, 63-65) (Grade B) 1.0% Commercial Sectors (Sec 18) (Grade B) 10.6% Commercial Sectors (Sec 18) (Grade B) 0.2%
noida
4Q 2013F
12,000
9,000
6,000
3,000
Micro Market
% Change
QoQ
0% 0% 0% 0%
YoY
3% 6% 3% 13%
Institutional Sectors (Non IT) Institutional Sectors (IT) Comercial Sectors Industrial Sector
Rental and capital values remained stable across all the micro markets barring few premium projects which recorded marginal increase in capital values. COLLIERS VIEW : Looking ahead, corporate occupiers are expected to largely remain cost cautious and incline towards deferring expansion plans due to uncertain economic sentiments. However, leasing will remain moderate due to demand for consolidation and relocation. Rentals are expected to remain stable with downward bias due to large supply availability.
Commercial Sectors
Industrial Sectors
2,000
Note: All the rentals shown above are indicative Grade A rentals in INR per sq ft per month.
Note: Available Supply: Total Grade A office space being marketed for sale or lease in surveyed quarter. Grade A Rental/Capital Values: Indicative asking price for Grade A office space. Prime Office Average Rental Trends: Average market rental values for Grade A properties.
p. 6
| Colliers International
CBD 14%
chennai
4Q 2013F
6,000
4,000
2,000
Guindy (SBD)
Ambattur
CBD
Micro Market
Rental Values
65 - 85 50 - 60 25 - 30 25 - 40 35 - 40
% Change
QoQ
0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
YoY
0% 4% 0% 0% 0%
50
30
20
Note: All the rentals shown above are indicative Grade A rentals in INR per sq ft per month.
Note: Available Supply: Total Grade A office space being marketed for sale or lease in surveyed quarter. Grade A Rental/Capital Values: Indicative asking price for Grade A office space. Prime Office Average Rental Trends: Average market rental values for Grade A properties.
Colliers International |
p. 7
CBD 6%
bengaluru
4Q 2013F
15,000
10,000
5,000
Micro Market
% Change
QoQ
0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
YoY
0% 0% 4% 0% 4% 1%
CBD Hosur Rd. EPIP Zone/ Whitefield Electronic City Bannerghatta Rd. Outer Ring Rd.
Both rental and capital values were remained largely stable across the micro-markets owing to large vacant stock and cautious demand. COLLIERS VIEW : The fourth quarter is expected to witness a moderate level of absorption as decision-making is expected to remain slow by corporations due to economic and political uncertainties. Considering the large available stock and cautious occupier demand, the price levels are likely to remain steady with marginal downward bias.
40 30
6,000
4,500 3,000
20
Note: All the rentals shown above are indicative Grade A rentals in INR per sq ft per month.
10
1,500
1Q2008
1Q2011
1Q2013F
1Q2009
1Q2010
1Q2012
1Q2014F
Note: Available Supply: Total Grade A office space being marketed for sale or lease in surveyed quarter. Grade A Rental/Capital Values: Indicative asking price for Grade A office space. Prime Office Average Rental Trends: Average market rental values for Grade A properties.
p. 8
| Colliers International
1Q2015F
The vacancy rate increased marginally and approximately 11.5 million sq ft of Grade A commercial office space was available for fitout.
Bannerghatta Road
Hosur Road
Sector-5 52%
Kolkata
4Q 2013F
15,000
10,000
5,000
East Kolkata
Sector-5
Micro Market
Rental Values
100 - 125 90 - 105 70 - 80 48 - 50 34 - 38
% Change
QoQ
-6% -7% -6% 0% -1%
YoY
-6% -11% -6% -7% -1%
CBD Ballygunge Circular Rd. East Kolkata Sector-5 New Town, Rajarhat
100
PBD (New Town, Rajarhat) 10,000 Capital Values -INR Per Sq.ft. 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 0 1Q2014F
80
60
40
Note: All the rentals shown above are indicative Grade A rentals in INR per sq ft per month.
20
1Q2008
1Q2011
1Q2009
1Q2010
1Q2012
Note: Available Supply: Total Grade A office space being marketed for sale or lease in surveyed quarter. Grade A Rental/Capital Values: Indicative asking price for Grade A office space. Prime Office Average Rental Trends: Average market rental values for Grade A properties.
Colliers International |
1Q2015F
1Q2013
p. 9
Baner 10%
Hinjewadi 24%
2% Senapati Bapat Road 3% Bavdhan 1% Nagar Road 14% Kalyani Nagar 10%
pune
4Q 2013F
8,000
6,000
4,000
2,000 0 Baner Kalyani Nagar Bund Garden Senapati Bapat Road Airport road/ pune station Nagar Road Hinjewadi Aundh Bavdhan Hadapsar/ Fursungi Kharadi 8,000 7,000 Capital Values -INR Per Sq.ft. 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 0 1Q2015F
Micro Market
Rental Values
45 - 55 50 - 60 42 - 60 45 - 60 55 - 85 35 - 45 45 - 60 40 - 60 30 - 45 30 - 50 32 - 65
% Change
QoQ
0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
YoY
11% -8% -3% 24% 7% 7% 0% 18% 7% -6% 8%
Baner Bund Garden Airport Rd. / Pune station Aundh Senapati Bapat Bavdhan Kalyani Nagar Nagar Rd. Hinjewadi Hadapsar/ Fursungi Kharadi
Rents and capital values remained unchanged across every micro-market during the surveyed quarter. COLLIERS VIEW : Overall leasing is expected to remain upbeat during the next quarter. However, the majority of this demand is expected to come from corporate looking to optimise costs through consolidation and relocation in peripheral locales because of the lower rents and quality space that is available there. Under these circumstances, we expect rents to remain stagnant across the micromarkets in the coming quarters.
1Q2008
1Q2009
1Q2010
1Q2012
1Q2013
1Q2011
Note: Available Supply: Total Grade A office space being marketed for sale or lease in surveyed quarter. Grade A Rental/Capital Values: Indicative asking price for Grade A office space. Prime Office Average Rental Trends: Average market rental values for Grade A properties.
Note: All the rentals shown above are indicative Grade A rentals in INR per sq ft per month.
p. 10
| Colliers International
1Q2014F
OFFICE SUBMARKETS
Mumbai The major business locations in Mumbai are the CBD (Nariman Point, Fort and Ballard Estate), Central Mumbai (Worli, Lower Parel and Parel), Bandra Kurla Complex (BKC) and Andheri Kurla stretch. Powai, Malad and Vashi are the preferred IT/ITES destinations, while Airoli at Navi Mumbai and Lal Bahadur Shastri Marg are emerging as new office and IT/ITES submarkets. Delhi The commercial areas in New Delhi metropolitan area can be broadly classified into the CBD (Connaught Place), SBD Nehru Place, Bhikaji Cama Place, Netaji Subhash Place, Jasola and Saket . Gurgaon The prime business locations in Gurgaon are MG Road, Golf Course Road, Cyber City and Udyog Vihar. Manesar on the outskirts of Gurgaon is also emerging as the citys new office destination. NOIDA NOIDA market is comprised of sectors broadly classified as institutional, industrial and commercial sectors. Institutional sectors include sec 16A, 62 and 125-142, industrial sectors include sec 1-9, 57-60 and 63- 65 while sector 18 is the most developed commercial sector. Chennai Prime office properties in Chennai are located in four principal sub-markets: the CBD, the IT Corridor, the SBD and the PBD. The SBD comprises Guindy, Manapakkam, Velachery and other areas. The PBD primarily includes Ambattur and GST Road, while the IT Corridor is the Old Mahaballipuram Road (OMR) in south Chennai. Bengaluru (Bangalore) Prime office properties in Bengaluru can be divided into three principal sub-market CBD, the SBD consisting of Banerghatta Road & Outer Ring Road (ORR) and PBD including Hosur Road, EPIP Zone, Electronic City and Whilefield. Pune The prime office sub-markets of Pune include Deccan Gymkhana, Bund Garden Road, Senapati Bapat Road & Camp (CBD), while the Off CBD includes Aundh, Airport Road and Kalyani Nagar, among other locations. The eastern corridor, along with Nagar Road and Kharadi, have emerged as a preferred location for financial and IT/ITES companies. Kolkata The major business locations in Kolkata are CBD (Park Street, Camac Street, Chowranghee Rd), SBD (AJC Bose Rd, Ballygunge circular Rd, East Kolkata), East Kolkata and PBD (New Town & Rajarhat). The area around Park Street, Camac Street and AJC Bose road houses number of high-rises commercial buildings such as Chatterjee International Centre, Tata Centre, Everest House and Industry House among others.
City Barometer
Increasing as compared to previous quarter Decreasing as compared to previous quarter Remained stable from previous quarter
Colliers International |
p. 11
Mumbai : Vaibhav Kumar, Office Director Vaibhav.kumar@colliers.com IndiaBulls Finance Centre, 1701-A, 17th Floor, Tower 3, Elphinstone Mills, Senapati Bapat Marg, Mumbai- 400 013. Tel : +91 22 4050 4527, fax : +91 22 2351 4272 Delhi NCR : Ajay Rakheja, Office Director Ajay.rakheja@colliers.com New Delhi : Statesman House, 4th Floor, Barakhamba Road, Connaught Place, New Delhi, India - 110001 Tel : +91 11 3044 6423, fax : +91 11 3044 6500 Gurgaon : Technopolis Building, 1st floor, DLF Golf Course Main Road, Sector 54, Gurgaon, India - 122002 Tel : +91 124 456 7500, fax : +91 124 456 7502 Bengaluru : Goutam Chakraborthy, Office Director Goutam.chakraborthy@colliers.com Prestige Garnet, Level 2, Unit No.201/202, 36 Ulsoor Road, Bengaluru, India - 560 042 Tel : +91 80 4079 5500, fax : +91 80 4112 3131 Pune : Suresh Castellino, Office Director Suresh.castellino@colliers.com Hotel Le Meridian, 101, R.B.M. Road, Pune, India - 411 001 Tel : +91 20 4120 6438, fax : +91 20 4120 6434 Chennai : Kaushik Reddy, Office Director Kaushik.reddy@colliers.com Heavitree Complex, Unit 1C, 1st floor, 23, Spurtank Road, Chetpet, Chennai, India - 600 031 Tel : +91 44 2836 1064, fax : +91 44 2836 1377 Kolkata : Soumya Mukherjee , Office Director Soumya.mukherjee@colliers.com Infinity Business Centre, Infinity Benchmark, Room No 13, Level 18, Plot G - 1, Block EP & GP, Salt Lake Sector V, Kolkata - 700 091 West Bengal, India Tel : +91 33 2357 6501, fax : +91 33 2357 6502 Recent Reports :
India office India reSIDENTIAL GLOBAL RETAIL BENGALURU RESIDENTIAL MARKET
REAL ESTATE
COLLIERS INTERNATIONAL INDIA RESEARCH
AUTHORS
Amit Oberoi MRICS National Director, Valuation & Advisory; Research Email: Amit.oberoi@colliers.com Surabhi Arora MRICS Associate Director, Research Email: Surabhi.arora@colliers.com Sachin Sharma Assistant Manager, Research Email: Sachin.sharma@colliers.com Heliana Mano Assistant Manager,Valuation & Advisory Email: Heliana.mano@colliers.com For general queries and feedback : India.Research@colliers.com Tel: +91 124 456 7580
This report and other research materials may be found on our website at www.colliers.com/India. Questions related to information herein should be directed to the Research Department at the number indicated above. This document has been prepared by Colliers International for advertising and general information only. Colliers International makes no guarantees, representations or warranties of any kind, expressed or implied, regarding the information including, but not limited to, warranties of content, accuracy and reliability. Any interested party should undertake their own inquiries as to the accuracy of the information. Colliers International excludes unequivocally all inferred or implied terms, conditions and warranties arising out of this document and excludes all liability for loss and damages arising there from. Copyright 2012 - 2013 All Rights Reserved.
GLOBAL INDUSTRIAL
iNDIA bUDGET
Colliers Picks: The latest Colliers International research unvails top investment destination in Bengaluru (Bangalore)
Markets to witness residential real estate growth For investment purpose, the new residential developments located in peripheral areas alongside the
commercial developments are most attractive. Pune witnesses multidirectional growth of residential projects in various locations such as Pimpri, Chinchwad, Chakan & Talegaon in North Viman Nagar
Kharadi & Wagholi in East, Baner, Hinjewadi, Wakad & Pashan, Kothrud, Bavdhan & Wajre in west and Undri & Kondhwa in the South.
21.95 21.83 21.02 20.61 20.04 16.20 14.70 14.70 13.23 13.23
> Thanks in part to a recent drop in exports to the United States, Mexico
Ofce Absorption in Million sq ft among major 7 cities in India
has seen slowing economic growth. In Q1 2013, several Mexico City industrial warehouses were vacated, slightly increasing the vacancy rate to 3.49%.
une is a classic example of the real estate market where commercial activities lead the residential development in the city. Pune has a large manufacturing base, with many manufacturing as well as automobile companies having large plants. In last one decade the city has also emerged as a prominent IT/ITeS destination. Residential demand in the city is mostly from the large population of working professionals and the older generation retired from the mid-management cadre from Mumbai who find this place attractive due to affordability, peace and proximity to Mumbai. The
Collierss Pick: The areas that will witness maximum uptake would be those having commercial or industrial activities such as Hinjewadi, Magarpatta, Viman Nagar, Kharadi, Wagholi, Chakan, Pimpri, Bavdhan, Warje & Talegaon.
city also attracts students who are compelled by the citys offering of quality education. A large share of the upcoming premium residential space in Pune is in the form of township developments, the majority of which is concentrated in and around the IT and industrial hubs. In the past, the city has seen considerable appreciation in property values. The government is also actively participating in the economic growth of the city by undertaking various infrastructure projects such as Pune Metro, Bus Rapid Transit (BRT) and High Capacity Bus Route.
> While occupier demand for industrial property in Brazil remains strong,
Favorable exchange rate (INR/USD) 1 $ = INR 56.45
driven largely from international retailers seeking a share of the spoils. This is leading to some notable rental growth in the West Ends core locations, with Regent Street witnessing double digit annual rental growth.
the market now appears to have stabilized into a more rational mode of sustained growth. So Paulo has seen positive net absorption, in spite of the final tally in 2012 showing a 23% decrease over the previous year.
income range Falling Rupee making NRI investments more lucrative High commercial absorption indicates sustained demand growth Source: Maharashtra Economic Survey, RBI, Colliers International India Research
EMEA APAC
> In Hong Kong, high quality warehouse buildings are nearly fully
occupied. Those users seeking to expand or rationalize their real estate costs have had to consider the option of split operations in lower quality buildings.
3.9%
PARIS
2.2%
> Most U.S. high street rents grew over last year. In New York, Fifth
Avenue rents grew by 11 percent. At $3,052 per square foot, Fifth Avenue rents are the most expensive in the world. On Las Vegas Boulevard, asking rents grew by 25 percent. Philadelphias Walnut Street showed the biggest gains in the U.S., with 33.8 percent growth.
> Indian economic growth remained sluggish through the end of 2012,
however we expect industrial activity to improve, thanks to recent government actions. These include the government-proposed National Investment and Manufacturing Zones and the newly approved 51% foreign direct investment in multi-brand retail trading.
MIN
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Accelerating success.
Accelerating success.
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