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INDIA FMCG

Colgate-Palmolive (India)
Result Update
26 October 2013
Target Price CMP* Downside Previous Target Previous Rating Price Performance (%)* 1M CLGT NIFTY 5.0 5.3 6M (8.2) 4.7 Rs1215 Key Data Rs1279 Bloomberg Code

Hold

High A&P spends impact profitability


We maintain Hold rating on the stock with further risk of high A&P spends and losing market share though lower competitive intensity could boost margins. Despite launch of P&Gs Oral-B toothpaste during the quarter, the company was able to increase its market share in competitive category with 10% volume growth in the toothpaste category. However, in order to maintain its share of voice, advertising and other expenses grew by 34% YoY and 46% YoY respectively impacting operating margins which were at a 11 quarter low while operating profits declined by 10% YoY and PAT by 25% YoY. We expect the overhang and uncertainty to continue for the next couple of quarters and impact valuations as seen in the past 3 months where the stock under-performed the FMCG index and corrected by 12%. Sales to remain robust: Despite the launch of a toothpaste by P&G during the quarter, Colgate was able to grow its volume market share to 56%, up 140bps over 9MCY13 which helped the company post healthy 10% volume growth in the toothpaste category and 9% overall volume growth. Healthy growth in flagship brands Colgate Dental cream, Colgate Total, Active Salts and recently launched Visible Whites during the quarter helped topline grow by 15.8% YoY to Rs8957mn in-line with expectations. Market share in the toothbrush category grew as well to 41.4% from 39.3% aiding growth. High A&P spends on the back of P&G launch: Advertising spends for the company increased 34% YoY while admin and other expenses which includes promotion expenses increased by 46% YoY during the quarter following the entry of P&G into the toothpaste market. Though A&P spends will remain lumpy, we expect high intensity to remain for a few quarters with Colgate maintaining its share of voice to defend its market share as seen from Q2FY14 results. Hence we have modelled A&P spends of 18% of sales in FY14 against 3-year average of ~15.8%. Profitability takes a back seat during the quarter: Despite gross margin increase of 142bps to 59.6% during the quarter, operating margins for the company declined by 453bps to 15.8%, the lowest in the past 11 quarters. High A&P spends impacted operating profit which declined by 10% YoY to Rs1413mn while PAT declined by 25% YoY to Rs1095mn. We have lowered our operating profit by 10.9%/7.8% for FY14/FY15 on the back of higher A&P spends and other expenses while PAT has been lowered by 9.3%/7.6% for the same period following lower operating profit. Maintain Hold: Colgate is currently trading at 33.7x and 28.4x FY14E and FY15E respectively and we maintain Hold rating on the stock with a revised target price of Rs1215 (25x Sept 2015). The stock has underperformed the FMCG index and corrected ~12% in last 3 months on the back of increased competition in the oral care category with significant de-rating in multiples. Key downside risk could be further increase in A&P spends and loss of market share impacting volume growth while upside could be lower competitive intensity improving margins.
Y/E Mar (Rsmn) Net Sales Employee cost COGS Admin & Other Exp EBITDA EBITDA margin (%) Depreciation Other income Exceptional Item PBT Tax PAT Adj PAT Q2FY14 8,957 535 3,621 3,388 1,413 15.8 117 181 1,477 382 1,095 1,095 Q2FY13 7,738 543 3,238 2,385 1,571 20.3 106 335 1,801 350 1,451 1,451 YoY(%) 15.8 (1.5) 11.8 42.1 (10.1) (453) bps Q1FY14 8,446 620 3,283 3,042 1,502 17.8 117 322 706 2,413 561 1,852 1,297 QoQ(%) 6.0 (13.8) 10.3 11.4 (5.9) (201) bps Q2FY14E 8,976 590 3,500 3,080 1,806 20.1 115 170 1,861 447 1,414 1,414 Var(%) (0.2) (9.4) 3.5 10.0 (21.8) (434) bps

CLGT IN 136.0 136.0 173.9/2.8 1580/1190 1580/309 154092

5% Curr Shares O/S (mn) Rs1416 Diluted Shares O/S(mn) Hold Mkt Cap (Rsbn/USDbn) 52 Wk H / L (Rs) 1Yr 5 Year H / L (Rs) 3.9 Daily Vol. (3M NSE Avg.) 8.5

*as on 25October2013; Source: Bloomberg, Centrum Research

Shareholding pattern (%)


Sep-13 Promoter FIIs Dom. Inst. Public & Others 51.0 19.8 6.7 22.5 Jun-13 51.0 21.3 5.6 22.0 Mar-13 51.0 21.6 5.2 22.2 Dec-12 51.0 21.6 5.4 22.1

Source: BSE

Colgate underperforming FMCG Index


140 130 120 110 100 90 80 Oct-12 Dec-12 Feb-13 Apr-13 Jun-13 Aug-13 Oct-13 NIFTY

COLGATE

FMCG INDEX

Source: Company, Centrum Research Estimates

Earning Revision
FY14E Particulars (Rs mn) Sales EBITDA EBITDA Margin (%) PAT New Old Chg (%) 0.0 (10.9) (9.3) New FY15E Old Chg (%) 0.0 (7.8) (7.6)

35,959 35,959 6,710 18.7 5,166 7,535 21.0 5,697

41,979 41,979 8,328 19.8 6,115 9,030 21.5 6,619

Source: Centrum Research Estimates

Centrum vs. Bloomberg Consensus*


FY14E Particulars (Rs mn) Sales EBITDA PAT Centrum 35,959 6,710 5,166 BBG 36,064 7,237 5,543 Var (%) Centrum (0.3) (7.3) (6.8) 41,979 8,328 6,115 FY15E BBG 41,651 8,495 6,328 Var (%) 0.8 (2.0) (3.4)

*as on 19 October2013;
Bloomberg Consensus BUY 10 SELL 21 HOLD 16 Target Price (Rs) 1304 Centrum Target Price (Rs) 1215 Variance (%)

(6.8)

*as on 25 October2013; Source: Bloomberg, Centrum Research

Ankit Kedia, ankit.kedia@centrum.co.in


91 22 4215 9634 (20.6)

(18.0)

(38.8) (38.8) (15.6) (15.6) Adj. PAT 4,465 4,968 5,166 6,115 7,102

(24.5)

(22.6)

Source: Company, Centrum Research Y/E Mar (Rsmn) FY12 FY13 FY14E FY15E FY16E Revenue 26,239 30,841 35,959 41,979 48,472 YoY (%) 18.2 17.5 16.6 16.7 15.5 EBITDA 5,092 5,771 6,710 8,328 9,690 EBITDA(%) 19.4 18.7 18.7 19.8 20.0

YoY (%) Adj. EPS (Rs) 10.9 32.8 11.3 36.5 4.0 38.0 18.4 45.0 16.1 52.2

RoE (%) 109 107 111 110 119

RoCE (%) 109 107 101 110 119

PE (x) 39.0 35.0 33.7 28.4 24.5

EV/EBITDA (x) 33.5 29.3 25.1 20.0 17.1

Source: Company, Centrum Research Estimates

Centrum Equity Research is available on Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters and FactSet

Exhibit 1: Sensitivity Analysis


Sensitivity to key variables (FY14E) Volume growth Gross margins Source: Company, Centrum Research Estimates % increase 1 1 % impact on EBITDA 1.56 5.30 % impact on EPS 1.47 5.09

Exhibit 2: 1 year forward EV/EBITDA chart


35.0 30.0 25.0 20.0 15.0 10.0

Exhibit 3: 1 year forward P/E chart


45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10

Dec-09

Dec-10

Dec-11

Dec-12

Aug-07

Aug-08

Aug-09

Aug-10

Aug-11

Aug-12

Aug-13

Dec-07

Dec-08

Apr-07

Apr-08

Apr-09

Apr-10

Apr-11

Apr-12

Apr-13

Dec-07

Dec-08

Dec-09

Dec-10

Dec-11

Dec-12

Aug-07

Aug-08

Aug-09

Aug-10

Aug-11

Aug-12

EV/EBITDA

Mean

Mean + Std Dev

Mean - Std Dev

P/E

Mean

Mean + Std Dev

Mean - Std Dev

Source: Bloomberg, Company, Centrum Research Estimates

Source: Bloomberg, Company, Centrum Research Estimates

Exhibit 4: Comparative Valuations


Company Colgate-Palmolive Hindustan Unilever* GSK-CH # Nestle India # ITC * Mkt Cap (Rsbn) 174 1,284 191 533 2,695 CAGR FY13-FY15E (%) Rev. EBITDA PAT 16.6 12.1 16.3 13.8 17.0 20.1 13.5 17.3 13.7 18.4 10.9 2.6 18.9 13.1 18.9 EBITDA Margin (%) FY13 FY14E FY15E 18.7 15.6 15.1 22.0 35.9 18.7 15.8 15.3 22.3 36.3 19.8 16.0 15.4 22.0 36.8 PE (x) FY13 FY14E FY15E 35.0 33.8 43.7 48.5 36.0 33.7 35.6 36.9 44.2 30.6 28.4 32.1 30.9 37.9 25.8 EV/EBITDA (x) FY13 FY14E FY15E 29.3 24.3 37.9 29.5 22.2 25.1 27.8 31.8 26.1 20.8 20.0 24.0 26.6 22.4 17.5 RoE (%) FY13 FY14E FY15E 107.4 122.7 34.9 71.6 36.1 111.5 110.1 34.8 60.3 36.2 110.0 98.4 35.2 58.6 37.7 Div Yield (%) FY13 FY14E FY15E 2.2 1.8 1.0 0.9 1.5 2.6 2.0 1.2 1.2 2.0 2.8 2.2 1.5 1.6 2.4

Source: *Bloomberg consensus, Companies; Centrum Research Estimates Note: # Y/E Dec

Colgate-Palmolive (India)

Aug-13

Apr-07

Apr-08

Apr-09

Apr-10

Apr-11

Apr-12

Apr-13

Exhibit 5: Quarterly Financials


Particulars (Rs mn) Net Sales Expenditure CoGS Employee Cost Advertising Expenses Other Expenditure EBIDTA Depreciation EBIT Interest Cost Other Income Exceptional Item PBT Tax Reported PAT Adj PAT Margins % Gross Margin EBIDTA EBIT PBT Adj PAT Growth % Net Sales EBIDTA EBIT PBT Adj PAT KPI's Volume growth % Source: Company, Centrum Research Q3FY12 6,696 2,651 534 1,075 1,145 1,291 99 1,192 6 300 0 1,485 330 1,156 1,156 Q4FY12 6,859 2,748 518 583 1,481 1,529 100 1,429 2 301 0 1,728 420 1,308 1,308 Q1FY13 7,361 2,997 624 837 1,478 1,424 105 1,319 0 312 0 1,632 457 1,174 1,174 Q2FY13 7,738 3,238 543 889 1,496 1,571 106 1,465 0 335 0 1,801 350 1,451 1,451 Q3FY13 7,626 3,044 631 999 1,664 1,288 113 1,175 0 328 0 1,504 393 1,111 1,111 Q4FY13 8,116 3,222 696 821 1,890 1,487 113 1,374 0 320 0 1,695 463 1,232 1,232 Q1FY14 8,446 3,283 620 1,014 2,028 1,502 117 1,385 0 322 706 2,413 561 1,852 1,297 Q2FY14 8,957 3,621 535 1,195 2,194 1,413 117 1,296 0 181 0 1,477 382 1,095 1,095

60.4 19.3 17.8 22.2 17.3

59.9 22.3 20.8 25.2 19.1

59.3 19.4 17.9 22.2 16.0

58.1 20.3 18.9 23.3 18.7

60.1 16.9 15.4 19.7 14.6

60.3 18.3 16.9 20.9 15.2

61.1 17.8 16.4 28.6 15.4

59.6 15.8 14.5 16.5 12.2

20.0 73.0 81.9 62.7 74.5

17.9 22.4 23.0 20.9 14.7

20.5 21.4 21.6 18.1 16.9

17.7 39.7 43.8 39.6 45.5

13.9 (0.2) (1.4) 1.2 (3.9)

18.3 (2.7) (3.8) (1.9) (5.8)

14.7 5.5 5.0 47.9 10.5

15.8 (10.1) (11.5) (18.0) (24.5)

13.0

11.0

11.0

10.0

8.0

12.0

9.0

10.0

Exhibit 6: Key Performance Indicators


Assumptions Volume growth % Source: Company, Centrum Research Estimates FY12 12.0 FY13 11.0 FY14E 12.0 FY15E 12.0 FY16E 12.0

Colgate-Palmolive (India)

Financials
Exhibit 7: Income Statement
Y/E March (Rsmn) Net Sales Growth (%) Employee Cost %of Sales Cost of Goods Sold % of sales Admin & other expenses % of sales EBIDTA EBIDTA Margins (%) Depreciation Interest expenses PBT for operations Other income Exceptional item PBT Provision for tax Effective tax rate (%) Net Profit Adj Net Profit FY12 26,239 18.2 2,156 8.2 10,502 40.0 8,489 32.4 5,092 19.4 393 15 4,683 1,201 5,884 1,419 24.1 4,465 4,465 FY13 30,841 17.5 2,494 8.1 12,502 40.5 10,074 32.7 5,771 18.7 437 5,334 1,296 6,630 1,663 25.1 4,968 4,968 FY14E 35,959 16.6 2,294 6.4 14,312 39.8 12,644 35.2 6,710 18.7 465 6,245 802 706 7,754 2,033 26.2 5,721 5,166 FY15E 41,979 16.7 2,592 6.2 16,792 40.0 14,268 34.0 8,328 19.8 491 7,837 680 8,517 2,402 28.2 6,115 6,115 FY16E 48,472 15.5 2,942 6.1 19,389 40.0 16,452 33.9 9,690 20.0 518 9,171 720 9,891 2,789 28.2 7,102 7,102

Exhibit 9: Balance Sheet


Y/E March (Rsmn) Share Capital Reserves & Surplus Total Shareholders Funds Loan Funds Total Capital Employed Fixed Asset Gross Block Less:- Accumulated Depreciation Net Block Capital WIP Total fixed assets Investments Deferred Tax Asset Inventory Debtors Loans & advances Cash & bank balances Interest Accrued on Deposits Total current assets Current liabilities & provisions Net current assets Total FY12 136 4,218 4,354 4,354 FY13 136 4,760 4,896 4,896 FY14E 136 5,230 5,366 5,366 FY15E 136 5,617 5,753 5,753 FY16E 136 6,036 6,172 6,172

6,132 3,587 2,544 694 3,238 471 121 2,177 873 1,254 3,090 64 7,458 6,934 524 4,354

6,735 3,929 2,807 1,020 3,826 471 224 1,853 812 1,560 4,288 33 8,546 8,172 374 4,896

7,135 4,393 2,742 800 3,542 471 224 2,353 985 1,618 4,912 33 9,901 8,772 1,129 5,366

7,535 4,885 2,650 800 3,450 471 224 2,760 1,150 1,889 6,644 33 12,476 10,869 1,607 5,753

7,935 5,403 2,532 800 3,332 471 224 3,187 1,328 2,181 7,691 33 14,420 12,275 2,145 6,172

Source: Company, Centrum Research Estimates

Exhibit 8: Key Ratios


Y/E March Growth ratios (%) Revenues EBIDTA Adj Net Profit Margin ratios (%) EBIDTA Margins PBIT Margins PBT Margins PAT Margins Return Ratios (%) ROCE RoNW RoIC Turnover Ratios Inventory period Collection period Payment period Working Capital Cycle Solvency Ratio (x) Debt-equity Net debt-equity Current ratio Interest coverage ratio Dividend Dividend (Rs) Dividend Yield (%) Dividend Payout (%) Per Share (Rs) Basic (end pt) EPS - Rep FDEPS (Adjusted) Basic (end pt) EPS - Adj FDEPS (Reported) CEPS Book Value Valuations (x) PER P/BV EV/EBIDTA EV/Sales M-cap/Sales FY12 18.2 13.0 10.9 19.4 17.9 22.4 17.0 109.2 109.0 3,236 26 9 66 (37) (0.8) 1.1 310.6 25.0 2.0 88.5 32.8 32.8 32.8 32.8 35.7 32.0 39.0 39.9 33.5 6.5 6.6 FY13 17.5 13.3 11.3 18.7 17.3 21.5 16.1 107.4 107.4 1,148 24 10 71 (47) (1.0) 1.0 NA 28.0 2.2 89.1 36.5 36.5 36.5 36.5 39.7 36.0 35.0 35.5 29.3 5.5 5.6 FY14E 16.6 16.3 4.0 18.7 17.4 21.6 15.9 101.3 111.5 10,445 21 9 74 (39) (1.0) 1.1 NA 33.0 2.6 91.8 42.1 38.0 38.0 42.1 45.5 39.5 33.7 32.4 25.1 4.7 4.8 FY15E 16.7 24.1 18.4 19.8 18.7 20.3 14.6 110.0 110.0 (1,136) 22 9 72 (44) (1.2) 1.1 NA 36.0 2.8 93.7 45.0 45.0 45.0 45.0 48.6 42.3 28.4 30.2 20.0 4.0 4.1 FY16E 15.5 16.4 16.1 20.0 18.9 20.4 14.7 119.1 119.1 (547) 22 9 75 (42) (1.3) 1.2 NA 42.0 3.3 94.1 52.2 52.2 52.2 52.2 56.0 45.4 24.5 28.2 17.1 3.4 3.6

Source: Company, Centrum Research Estimates

Exhibit 10: Cash Flow


Y/E March (Rsmn) CF from operations Profit before tax Depreciation & amortisation Others CF before WC changes Working capital changes Cash inflow from operations Income tax paid Cash from Operations Cash from investing Capex Investments Other Income Cash from investing Cash from financing Borrowings/ repayments Dividend paid Interest paid Cash from financing Net change in cash FY12 5,884 393 (1,182) 5,095 (787) 4,308 (1,419) 2,889 (904) (84) 1,201 212 (1) (3,951) (15) (3,967) (866) FY13 6,630 437 (1,495) 5,572 1,348 6,919 (1,663) 5,257 (930) 0 1,296 367 (4,426) (4,426) 1,198 FY14E 7,754 465 (802) 7,417 (130) 7,286 (2,033) 5,253 (180) 802 622 (5,251) (5,251) 624 FY15E 8,517 491 (680) 8,328 1,254 9,582 (2,402) 7,180 (400) 680 280 (5,728) (5,728) 1,732 FY16E 9,891 518 (720) 9,690 509 10,199 (2,789) 7,409 (400) 720 320 (6,683) (6,683) 1,046

Source: Company, Centrum Research Estimates

Source: Company, Centrum Research Estimates

Colgate-Palmolive (India)

Appendix A
Disclaimer
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Colgate-Palmolive (India)

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Colgate-Palmolive (India)

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