Hong Kong Examinations Authority

All Rights Reserved 2001

2001-AS-M & S1
HONG KONG EXAMINATIONS AUTHORITY
HONG KONG ADVANCED LEVEL EXAMINATION 2001
MATHEMATICS AND STATISTICS AS-LEVEL
8.30 am 11.30 am (3 hours)
This paper must be answered in English
1. This paper consists of Section A and Section B.
2. Answer ALL questions in Section A, using the AL(E) answer book.
3. Answer any FOUR questions in Section B, using the AL(C)2 answer book.
4. Unless otherwise specified, all working must be clearly shown.
5. Unless otherwise specified, numerical answers should be either exact or given
to 4 decimal places.
2001-ASL
M & S
2001-AS-M & S2 1
SECTION A (40 marks)
Answer ALL questions in this section.
Write your answers in the AL(E) answer book.
1. A and B are two independent events. If 4 . 0 ) P( = A and 7 . 0 ) P( = B A ,
find P(B) .
(4 marks)
2. Let
x
e u
2
= and u
u u
y
2
1
d
d
= .
(a) Express
x
u
d
d
and
x
y
d
d
in terms of x .
(b) It is known that y = 1 when x = 0 . Express y in terms of x .
(5 marks)
3. The ages of 35 members of a golf club are shown below:
Stem (tens) Leaf (units)
1 a 8 8 9 9
2 0 1 2 3 3 4 7 8
3 1 2 2 5 b 9 9
4 0 2 5 5 6
5 2 2 5 5 8 8
6 0 1 c 6
It is known that the median and the range of the ages are 36 and 48
respectively, and the ages of the two eldest members differ by 1 .
(a) Find the unknown digits a , b and c .
(b) The three members whose ages correspond to the three unknown digits
a , b and c are replaced with three new members with ages 12 , 38
and 68 respectively. Draw two box-and-whisker diagrams in your
answer book comparing the age distributions of the members before and
after replacement.
(6 marks)
2001-AS-M & S3 2
Go on to the next page
4. The binomial expansion of
n
ax
1
) 1 (

+ in ascending powers of x is
+ +
2
9
32
3
4
1 x x , where a is a constant and n is a positive integer.
(a) Find the values of a and n .
(b) State the range of values of x for which the expansion is valid.
(6 marks)
5. Suppose the rate of change of the accumulated bonus, R thousand dollars per
month, for a group of salesmen can be modelled by
150
200 1
2
+
=
t
R (0 t 6) ,
where t is the time in months since January 1, 2001.
(a) Use the trapezoidal rule with 4 sub-intervals to estimate the total bonus
for the first 6 months in 2001.
(b) Find
2
2
d
d
t
R
.
Hence or otherwise, state with reasons whether the approximation in (a)
is an overestimate or an underestimate.
(6 marks)
6. 3 students are randomly selected from 10 students of different weights. Find
the probability that
(a) the heaviest student is in the selection,
(b) the heaviest one out of the 3 selected students is the 4 th heaviest
among the 10 students,
(c) the 2 heaviest students are not both selected.
(7 marks)
2001-AS-M & S4 3
7. In the election of the Legislative Council, 48% of the voters support Party A ,
39% Party B and 13% Party C . Suppose on the polling day, 65% , 58%
and 50% of the supporting voters of Parties A , B and C respectively cast
their votes.
(a) A voter votes on the polling day. Find the probability that the voter
supports Party B .
(b) Find the probability that exactly 2 out of 5 voting voters support Party
B .
(6 marks)
2001-AS-M & S5 4
Go on to the next page
SECTION B (60 marks)
Answer any FOUR questions in this section. Each question carries 15 marks.
Write your answers in the AL(C)2 answer book.
8. A chemical factory continually discharges a constant amount of biochemical
waste into a river. The microorganisms in the waste material flow down the
river and remove dissolved oxygen from the water during biodegradation. The
concentration of dissolved oxygen (CDO) of the river is given by
G(x) =
kx kx
e a e a
2
) 12 ( 12 2

+ + ,
where G(x) mg/L is the CDO of the river at position x km downstream from
the location of discharge of the waste, and a , k are positive constants.
At the location of the discharge of waste (i.e. x = 0) , the CDO of the river is
9 mg/L .
(a) (i) Show that a = 3 .
(ii) Find the minimum CDO of the river.
(5 marks)
(b) Figure 1 shows a sketch of the graph of G(x) against x . It is found that
downstream from the location of the discharge of waste, a stretch of
2.85 km of the river has a CDO of 4.5 mg/L or below.
(i) Find the value of k correct to 1 decimal place.
(ii) Find G(x) .
Hence determine the position of the river, to the nearest 0.1 km ,
where the rate of change of the CDO is greatest.
(iii) A river is said to be healthy if the CDO of the river is 5.5 mg/L
or above. Will the river in this case become healthy? If yes, find
the position of the river, to the nearest 0.1 km , where it
becomes healthy again.
(10 marks)
0
9
4.5
2.85
G(x)
x
Figure 1
2001-AS-M & S6 5
9. The spread of an epidemic in a town can be measured by the value of PPI (the
proportion of population infected). The value of PPI will increase when the
epidemic breaks out and will stabilize when it dies out.
The spread of the epidemic in town A last year could be modelled by the
equation
a
ake
t
kt

1
04 . 0
) ( P , where a, k > 0 and P(t) was the PPI t days
after the outbreak of the epidemic. Figure 2 shows the graph of ) ( P ln t
against t , which was plotted based on some observed data obtained last year.
The initial value of PPI is 0.09 (i.e. P(0) = 0.09).
(a) (i) Express ) ( P ln t as a linear function of t and use Figure 2 to
estimate the values of a and k correct to 2 decimal places.
Hence find P(t) .
(ii) Let be the PPI 3 days after the outbreak of the epidemic.
Find .
(iii) Find the stabilized PPI.
(8 marks)
(b) In another town B , the health department took precautions so as to
reduce the PPI of the epidemic. It is predicted that the rate of spread of
the epidemic will follow the equation
2
3
) 4 3 )( 05 . 0 ( 6 ) ( Q

+ = t b t ,
where Q(t) is the PPI t days after the outbreak of the epidemic in town
B and b is the initial value of PPI.
(i) Suppose b = 0.09 .
(I) Determine whether the PPI in town B will reach the
value in (a)(ii).
(II) How much is the stabilized PPI reduced in town B as
compared with that in town A ?
(ii) Find the range of possible values of b if the epidemic breaks out
in town B . Explain your answer briefly.
(7 marks)
2001-AS-M & S7 6
Go on to the next page
t
ln P(t)
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
The graph of ) ( P ln t against t
Figure 2
2001-AS-M & S8 7
10. Let f(x) =
3
45 5
+
+
x
x
for 3 x and g(x) =
x
ka
9
1

where k and a are

positive constants. Figure 3 on Page 8 shows a sketch of y = g(x) . It is known
that f(0) = g(0) and f(9) = g(9) .
(a) Determine the values of k and a .
(2 marks)
(b) Find the equations of the horizontal and vertical asymptotes of y = f(x) .
(2 marks)
(c) Sketch y = f(x) and its asymptotes on Figure 3. Indicate the points
where the curve cuts the axes and y = g(x).
(3 marks)
(d) Let A be the area bounded by the curve y = f(x) , the x-axis, the y-axis
and the line x = 9 .
(i) Find the value of A .
(ii) If the area bounded by the curve y = g(x) , the x-axis, the lines
x = and x = + 9 is also A , find the value of .
(8 marks)
2001-AS-M & S9 8
Go on to the next page
Page Total
10. (Contd) If you attempt Question 10, fill in the details in the first three boxes
above and tie this sheet INSIDE your answer book.
Candidate Number Centre Number Seat Number
Figure 3
O
x
y
y = g(x)
(0, 15)
2001-AS-M & S10 9
This is a blank page.
2001-AS-M & S11 10
Go on to the next page
11. A building has only two entrances A and B . Within a 15-minute period, the
numbers of persons who entered the building by using entrances A and B
follow the Poisson distributions with means 3.2 and 2.7 respectively.
(a) Find the probability that, on a given 15-minute period,
(i) no one entered the building by using entrance A ;
(ii) no one entered the building by using entrance B ;
(iii) at least one person entered the building;
(iv) exactly two persons entered the building.
(7 marks)
(b) Let X be the number of persons who entered the building within a 15-
minute period. Suppose X follows a Poisson distribution with mean
and k is the most probable number of persons who entered the building
within a 15-minute period.
(i) By considering P(X = k 1) , P(X = k) and P(X = k + 1) , show
that k 1 .
(ii) Suppose = 5.9 . For any 5 successive 15-minute periods, find
the probability that the third time that exactly k persons entered
the building within a 15-minute period will occur during the fifth
15-minute period.
(8 marks)
2001-AS-M & S12 11
12. Table 1 gives the probability distributions of the lifetimes of two brands of
compact fluorescent lamps (CFLs). The lifetime of a Brand X CFL follows a
normal distribution with mean hours and standard deviation 400 hours.
The lifetime of a Brand Y CFL follows another normal distribution with mean
8 800 hours and standard deviation hours.
Table 1 Probability distributions of the lifetimes of
brands X and Y CFLs
Probability *
Lifetime of a CFL
(in hours)
Brand X : N(, 400
2
) Brand Y : N(8 800,
2
)
Under 8 200 0.0808 0.1587
8 200 to 8 600 0.2638
1
b
8 600 to 9 000
1
a
2
b
9 000 to 9 400 0.2195
3
b
Over 9 400
2
a 0.1587
* Correct to 4 decimal places.
(a) Using the probabilities provided in Table 1, find and .
Hence find the values of
1
a ,
2
a ,
1
b ,
2
b and
3
b in Table 1.
(5 marks)
(b) Based on the results of (a), which brand of CFL would you choose to
buy? Explain.
(1 mark)
(c) Figure 4 shows a lighting system formed by three lamps. The system
will work only if lamp a works and either lamp b or lamp c works.
Lamp a
Lamp b
Lamp c
Figure 4
2001-AS-M & S13 12
Go on to the next page
12. (continued)
(i) Suppose all the lamps in the system are brand X CFLs.
(I) Find the probability that the lifetime of the lighting
system is more than 8 200 hours.
(II) It is known that the lifetime of the lighting system is less
than 8 200 hours. Find the probability that only the
lifetime of lamp a is less than 8 200 hours.
(ii) Suppose the lighting system is formed by 2 brand X and 1
brand Y CFLs. In order for the system to have a better chance of
having a lifetime of more than 8 200 hours, where would you
put the brand Y CFL in the system? Explain.
(9 marks)
2001-AS-M & S14 13
13. You may use the probabilities listed in Table 2 to answer this question.
A salesman is promoting a new fertilizer which will improve the growth of
potatoes. He claims that using the fertilizer, farmers will produce 65% of
Grade A and 35% of Grade B potatoes (referred as the claim below). A
farmer uses the fertilizer on his potatoes. In order to test the effectiveness of the
fertilizer, he randomly selects 8 potatoes as a sample for testing.
(a) If the claim is valid, find the probability that there is at most 1 Grade A
potato in the sample.
(2 marks)
(b) The farmer will reject the claim if there are not more than 3 Grade A
potatoes in the sample.
(i) If the claim is valid, find the probability that the farmer will
reject the claim.
(ii) If the fertilizer can only produce 20% Grade A and 80%
Grade B potatoes, find the probability that the farmer will not
reject the claim.
(5 marks)
(c) The farmers wife takes 3 independent samples of 8 potatoes each to
check the claim. She will reject the claim if not more than 3 Grade A
potatoes are found in 2 or more of the 3 samples. If the claim is valid,
find the probability that the farmers wife will reject the claim.
(4 marks)
(d) Suppose the claim is valid. By comparing the methods described in (b)
and (c), determine who, the farmer or his wife, will have a bigger chance
of rejecting the claim wrongly.
(1 mark)
(e) The farmers son will reject the claim if there are not more than k Grade
A potatoes in a sample of 8 potatoes. Find the greatest value of k such
that the probability of rejecting the claim is less than 0.05 given that the
claim is valid.
(3 marks)
2001-AS-M & S15 14
Table 2 Probabilities of two binomial distributions
Probability *
Number of success
B(8, 0.65) B(8, 0.2)
0 0.0002 0.1678
1 0.0033 0.3355
2 0.0217 0.2936
3 0.0808 0.1468
4 0.1875 0.0459
5 0.2786 0.0092
6 0.2587 0.0011
7 0.1373 0.0001
8 0.0319 0.0000
* Correct to 4 decimal places.
END OF PAPER
2001-AS-M & S16 15
Table: Area under the Standard Normal Curve
z .00 .01 .02 .03 .04 .05 .06 .07 .08 .09
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
.0000
.0398
.0793
.1179
.1554
.0040
.0438
.0832
.1217
.1591
.0080
.0478
.0871
.1255
.1628
.0120
.0517
.0910
.1293
.1664
.0160
.0557
.0948
.1331
.1700
.0199
.0596
.0987
.1368
.1736
.0239
.0636
.1026
.1406
.1772
.0279
.0675
.1064
.1443
.1808
.0319
.0714
.1103
.1480
.1844
.0359
.0753
.1141
.1517
.1879
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
.1915
.2257
.2580
.2881
.3159
.1950
.2291
.2611
.2910
.3186
.1985
.2324
.2642
.2939
.3212
.2019
.2357
.2673
.2967
.3238
.2054
.2389
.2704
.2995
.3264
.2088
.2422
.2734
.3023
.3289
.2123
.2454
.2764
.3051
.3315
.2157
.2486
.2794
.3078
.3340
.2190
.2517
.2823
.3106
.3365
.2224
.2549
.2852
.3133
.3389
1.0
1.1
1.2
1.3
1.4
.3413
.3643
.3849
.4032
.4192
.3438
.3665
.3869
.4049
.4207
.3461
.3686
.3888
.4066
.4222
.3485
.3708
.3907
.4082
.4236
.3508
.3729
.3925
.4099
.4251
.3531
.3749
.3944
.4115
.4265
.3554
.3770
.3962
.4131
.4279
.3577
.3790
.3980
.4147
.4292
.3599
.3810
.3997
.4162
.4306
.3621
.3830
.4015
.4177
.4319
1.5
1.6
1.7
1.8
1.9
.4332
.4452
.4554
.4641
.4713
.4345
.4463
.4564
.4649
.4719
.4357
.4474
.4573
.4656
.4726
.4370
.4484
.4582
.4664
.4732
.4382
.4495
.4591
.4671
.4738
.4394
.4505
.4599
.4678
.4744
.4406
.4515
.4608
.4686
.4750
.4418
.4525
.4616
.4693
.4756
.4429
.4535
.4625
.4699
.4761
.4441
.4545
.4633
.4706
.4767
2.0
2.1
2.2
2.3
2.4
.4772
.4821
.4861
.4893
.4918
.4778
.4826
.4864
.4896
.4920
.4783
.4830
.4868
.4898
.4922
.4788
.4834
.4871
.4901
.4925
.4793
.4838
.4875
.4904
.4927
.4798
.4842
.4878
.4906
.4929
.4803
.4846
.4881
.4909
.4931
.4808
.4850
.4884
.4911
.4932
.4812
.4854
.4887
.4913
.4934
.4817
.4857
.4890
.4916
.4936
2.5
2.6
2.7
2.8
2.9
.4938
.4953
.4965
.4974
.4981
.4940
.4955
.4966
.4975
.4982
.4941
.4956
.4967
.4976
.4982
.4943
.4957
.4968
.4977
.4983
.4945
.4959
.4969
.4977
.4984
.4946
.4960
.4970
.4978
.4984
.4948
.4961
.4971
.4979
.4985
.4949
.4962
.4972
.4979
.4985
.4951
.4963
.4973
.4980
.4986
.4952
.4964
.4974
.4981
.4986
3.0
3.1
3.2
3.3
3.4
.4987
.4990
.4993
.4995
.4997
.4987
.4991
.4993
.4995
.4997
.4987
.4991
.4994
.4995
.4997
.4988
.4991
.4994
.4996
.4997
.4988
.4992
.4994
.4996
.4997
.4989
.4992
.4994
.4996
.4997
.4989
.4992
.4994
.4996
.4997
.4989
.4992
.4995
.4996
.4997
.4990
.4993
.4995
.4996
.4997
.4990
.4993
.4995
.4997
.4998
3.5 .4998 .4998 .4998 .4998 .4998 .4998 .4998 .4998 .4998 .4998
Note: An entry in the table is the proportion of the area under the entire curve which is between z = 0
and a positive value of z . Areas for negative values of z are obtained by symmetry.
z 0
A(z)
x e z A
z
x
d
2
1
) (
0
2
2

2001
Section A
1. 0.5
2. (a)
x
u
d
d
=
x
e
2
2
x
y
d
d
=
x
e
4
4 2
(b) 2 2
4
+ =
x
e x y
3. (a) a = 8 , b = 6 , c = 5
(b)
A
g
e
s
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
Before
replacement
After
replacement
4. (a) 4 = a , 3 = n
(b)
4
1
4
1
< < x
5. (a) 44.5548 thousand dollars
(b)
2
2
d
d
t
R
=
3 2
2
) 150 (
) 50 ( 7200
+

t
t
underestimate
6. (a)
10
3
(b)
8
1
(c)
15
14
7. (a) 0.375
(b) 0.3433
2001
Section B
8. (a) (i) Since G(0) 9 ,
9 ) 12 ( 12 2 + + a a
a 3
(ii) G(x)
kx kx
e e
2
15 12 6

+
G(x)
kx kx
ke ke
2
30 12

) 5 2 ( 6
kx kx
e ke

G(x) 0 when
5
2

kx
e or
2
5
ln
1
k
x
and G(x)

> >
< <
2
5
ln
1
when 0
2
5
ln
1
0 when 0
k
x
k
x
G(x) is minimum when
5
2

kx
e .
The minimum CDO
]
]
]
]
,
,

,
(
,
\
,
(
j
+ (
,
\
,
(
j

2
5
2
15
5
2
12 6 mg/L
3.6 mg/L
(b) (i) Solving G(x) 4.5 , we have
5 . 4 15 12 6
2
+
kx kx
e e
0 1 8 ) ( 10
2
+
kx kx
e e
10
6 4

kx
e
10
6 4
ln
1

k
x
Hence 85 . 2
10
6 4
ln
1
10
6 4
ln
1

+
+

k k
85 . 2
6 4
6 4
ln
1

+
k
5 . 0 k (1 d.p.)
(ii) G(x)
x x
e e

15 6
5 . 0
G(x)
x x
e e

+ 15 3
5 . 0
) 1 5 ( 3
5 . 0 5 . 0

x x
e e
G(x) 0 when
5
1
ln
5 . 0
1
x ( 3.2)
and G(x)

< >
> <
5
1
ln
5 . 0
1
0 when 0
5
1
ln
5 . 0
1
when 0
x
x
3.2 km downstream from the location of discharge of
the waste, the rate of change of the CDO is greatest.
(iii) Solving G(x) 5.5 , we have
0 1 24 30
5 .
+
x x
e e
30
114 12
5 . 0

x
e
30
114 12
ln
5 . 0
1
x
x 0.6 or 6.2
The river will return to be healthy 6.2 km downstream
form the location of discharge of waste.
9. (a) (i)
a
ak
kt t

+
1
04 . 0
ln ) ( P ln
From the graph,
0 18
) 5 . 3 ( 8

k , 25 . 0 k
5 . 3
1
04 . 0
ln
a
ak
, a 0.7512 0.75
t
e t
25 . 0
03 . 0 ) ( P


t
e t
25 . 0
12 . 0 ) P(

+ c for some constant c
Since P(0) 0.09, c 0.21
Hence 21 . 0 12 . 0 ) P(
25 . 0
+
t
e t
(ii) P(3) 0.1533
(iii) Stabilized PPI in town A 21 . 0 ) P( lim

t
t
(b) (i) Suppose b 0.09 .
(I)
2
3
) 4 3 ( 24 . 0 ) ( Q

+ t t
Q(t)
2
1
) 4 3 )( 2 )( 24 . 0 (
3
1

+ t + c for some constant c
c t + +

2
1
) 4 3 ( 16 . 0
Since Q(0) 0.09, c 0.17
If Q(t) = 0.1533
1533 . 0 17 . 0 ) 4 3 ( 16 . 0
2
1
+ +

t
0167 . 0
16 . 0
) 4 3 (
2
1
+ t
Since 0 4 3 > + t
3 . 29 t
i.e. the PPI will reach the value of .
(II) Stabilized PPI in town B 17 . 0 ) Q( lim

t
t
The stabilized PPI will be reduced by 0.04 .
(ii) 0.05 < b (< 1).
Otherwise, Q(t) 0 and the PPI will not increase.
It follows that the epidemic will not break out.
10. (a) f(0) g(0) 15
3
45
k
f(9) g(9)
12
90 15

a
2 a
(b) Since ) f( lim
3
x
x

3
45 5
lim
3 +
+

x
x
x
and ) f( lim
3
x
x
+

3
45 5
lim
3 +
+
+
x
x
x
+ ,
3 x is a vertical asymptote.
Since ) f( lim x
x

x
x
x 3
1
45
5
lim
+
+

5 ,
5 y is a horizontal asymptote.
(c)
y 5
O
x
y
y g(x)
x 3
(9, 7.5)
(0, 15)
(9, 0)
y f(x)
(d) (i) A x
x
x
d
3
45 5
9
0

+
+
x
x
d
3
30
5
9
0

(
,
\
,
(
j
+
+
[ ]
9
0
) 3 ln( 30 5 + + x x
4 ln 30 45 +
(ii) Let
x
u
9
1
2

, then x u
9
2 ln
ln and u
u
x d
1
2 ln
9
d .
x
x
d 2 15
9
9
1

u
u
u d
1
2 ln
9
15
1 ) 9 / (
9 /
2
2

(
,
\
,
(
j

1 ) 9 / (
9 /
2
2
2 ln
135

]
]
]
,

u

(
(
,
\
,
,
(
j

1
9 9
2 2
2 ln
135


9
2
2 ln 2
135

If 4 ln 30 45 2
2 ln 2
135
9
+

, then
( )
]
]
]
,

,
+
135
2 ln 2
4 ln 30 45 ln 2 ln
9

5253 . 1
11. Let
A
X and
B
X be the numbers of persons entered the building using
entrances A and B respectively within a 15-minute period.
(a) (i) ) 0 P( =
A
X =
! 0
) 2 . 3 (
2 . 3 0
e
=
2 . 3
e 0.0408
(ii) ) 0 P( =
B
X =
! 0
) 7 . 2 (
7 . 2 0
e
=
7 . 2
e 0.0672
(iii) ) 1 P( +
B A
X X = ) 0 and 0 P( 1 = =
B A
X X
= ) 0 P( ) 0 P( 1 = =
B A
X X
=
7 . 2 2 . 3
1

e e
=
9 . 5
1

e
0.9973
(iv) ) 2 P( = +
B A
X X
= ) 2 P( ) 0 P( ) 1 P( ) 1 P( ) 0 P( ) 2 P( = = + = = + = =
B A B A B A
X X X X X X
=
! 2
) 7 . 2 (
! 1
7 . 2
! 1
2 . 3
! 2
) 2 . 3 (
7 . 2 2
2 . 3
7 . 2 2 . 3
7 . 2
2 . 3 2

+ +
e
e
e e
e
e
=
9 . 5
405 . 17

e
0.0477
(b) (i) Since k is the most probable number of persons entered
the building within a 15-minute period,
P(X = k 1) P(X = k) and P(X = k + 1) P(X = k)
Hence
! )! 1 (
1
k
e
k
e
k k

k
and
! )! 1 (
1
k
e
k
e
k k

+

+
1 + k
k 1
(ii) From (b)(i), k = 5 .
The probability required
= )] [P( )] P( 1 [ )] [P(
2 2 4
2
k X k X k X C = = =
=

! 5
) 9 . 5 (
! 5
) 9 . 5 (
1
! 5
) 9 . 5 (
9 . 5 5
2
9 . 5 5
2
9 . 5 5
4
2
e e e
C
0.0183
12. Let
X
E and
Y
E be the lifetimes of brand X and brand Y CFLs respectively.
(a) 1151 . 0 ) 8200 P( = <
X
E 0808 . 0
400
8200
400
P =

<

X
E
4 . 1
400
8200
=

8760 =
1587 . 0 ) 8200 P( = <
Y
E 1587 . 0
8800 8200 8800
P =

<

Y
E
00 . 1
8800 8200
=

600 =
1
a = 0.3811 ,
2
a = 0.0548
1
b = 0.2120 ,
2
b = 0.2586 ,
3
b = 0.2120
(b) The mean of the lifetimes of the 2 brands only differ a little but the
standard deviation of the lifetimes of brand X CFLs is significantly
smaller than that of brand Y .
I shall choose brand X because the lifetimes of its CFLs are more reliable.
(c) (i) Let
a
X ,
b
X and
c
X be the lifetimes of lamps a , b and c resp.
(I) The required probability
= [ ] ) 8200 or 8200 P( ) 8200 P( > > >
c b a
X X X
= { }
2
)] 8200 [P( 1 )] 8200 P( 1 [ < <
X X
E E
) 0808 . 0 1 )( 0808 . 0 1 (
2

0.9132
(II) The required probability
=
9132 . 0 1
) 8200 P( ) 8200 P( ) 8200 P(

> > <

c b a
X X X
=
9132 . 0 1
) 0808 . 0 1 ( 0808 . 0
2

= 0.7865
(ii) Note that ) 8200 P( <
X
E 0.0808
and ) 8200 P( <
Y
E 0.1578 .
Since a brand X CFL is less likely than a brand Y CFL to have
a lifetime less than 8200 hours, and lamp a is the most critical lamp
for the lighting system to work (according to the result of (c)(i)(II)),
Lamp a should be a brand X CFL.
Hence I will put the brand Y CFL as lamp b or c .
13. Let X be the number of Grade A potatoes in the 8 selected potatoes.
(a) ) 65 . 0 | 1 P( = p X 0.0002 + 0.0033
0.0035
(b) (i) ) 65 . 0 | 3 P( = p X 0.0002 + 0.0033 + 0.0217 + 0.0808
0.1060
(ii) ) 2 . 0 | 3 P( = > p X
0.0459 + 0.0092 + 0.0011 + 0.0001 + 0.0000
0.0563
(c) The required probability
=
3 3
3
2 3
2
) 1 ( q C q q C +

3 3
3
2 3
2
) 1060 . 0 ( ) 1060 . 0 1 ( ) 1060 . 0 ( C C +
0.0313
(d) The probability that the farmer will wrongly reject the claim is 0.1060
whereas the probability that his wife will wrongly reject the claim is 0.0313 .
Therefore the farmer will have a bigger chance of rejecting the claim wrongly.
(e) ) 65 . 0 | 2 P( = p X 0.0252
) 65 . 0 | 3 P( = p X 0.0808 0.0252 + 0.1060
Since ) 65 . 0 | 2 P( = p X < 0.05 < ) 65 . 0 | 3 P( = p X
k = 2 .