Table.

The Outlook for Japan's Economy

Forecast
FY2013
1st Qtr

2nd

3rd

4th

FY2014
1st Qtr

2nd

3rd

4th

FY2015
1st Qtr

2nd

3rd

4th

Real GDE (Chained 2005 Yen) *

1.0

0.3

0.3

1.1

-1.2

0.4

0.6

0.5

0.0

0.6

-0.7

0.4

Real GDE (Chained 2005 Yen) **

1.2

2.3

2.7

2.7

0.4

0.6

0.9

0.3

1.6

1.8

0.5

0.4

Private Consumption *

0.6

0.2

0.5

1.9

-2.8

0.4

0.3

0.3

0.4

0.9

-1.4

Private Residential Investment *

0.9

3.3

4.2

-1.3

-9.0

-5.7

1.6

4.0

4.0

-1.0

Private Non-Residential Investment *

1.1

0.2

1.3

2.4

-0.2

1.0

0.9

0.9

1.0

Public Investment *

6.9

7.2

2.3

-1.1

0.5

0.3

0.1

-0.1

Domestic Demand ***

0.8

0.8

0.8

1.3

-1.7

0.3

0.4

Foreign Demand ***

0.1

-0.5

-0.5

-0.2

0.4

0.2

Exports of Goods & Services *

2.9

-0.7

0.4

0.9

1.5

Imports of Goods & Services *

1.8

2.4

3.5

2.2

GDE at Current Prices *

1.0

0.2

0.4

Indices of Industrial Production *

1.5

1.7

Unemployment Rate (%)

4.0

Compensation of Employees **

1.2

10-Year Government Bond Yield (%)

Nikkei Stock Average (Yen)

FY2012 FY2013 FY2014 FY2015

Actual Forecast Forecast Forecast

0.6

2.3

0.6

1.1

0.5

1.5

2.4

-0.5

1.0

-3.6

-2.8

5.3

8.3

-9.7

3.0

1.6

0.0

0.8

0.7

0.8

3.8

3.8

-8.5

-1.5

-1.2

1.0

1.3

15.8

2.8

-9.8

0.4

0.1

0.7

-1.0

0.2

1.4

2.5

0.3

0.8

0.2

0.1

-0.1

-0.0

0.3

0.2

-0.8

-0.3

0.2

0.3

1.5

1.6

1.5

1.2

1.2

1.4

1.5

-1.2

3.4

4.7

5.6

-1.3

0.7

0.4

1.0

1.7

1.5

-0.1

0.5

3.7

5.8

3.6

4.1

0.4

0.3

0.5

0.9

0.7

-0.1

0.5

-0.1

0.6

-0.2

1.7

1.9

1.6

1.8

3.8

-2.4

0.9

0.8

0.7

0.5

0.6

-0.6

0.1

-2.9

3.3

3.0

1.9

4.0

3.9

3.8

3.7

3.7

3.7

3.7

3.7

3.6

3.6

3.6

4.3

3.9

3.7

3.6

0.6

1.8

1.7

1.6

1.0

0.3

0.3

0.5

0.6

0.6

0.5

0.1

1.3

0.8

0.5

0.731 0.768 0.636 0.625 0.659 0.694 0.728 0.762 0.803 0.844 0.884 0.889

0.781

0.690

0.711

0.855

13,629 14,128 14,951 14,834 15,021 15,848 16,108 15,968 16,380 17,033 17,057 17,008

9,612

14,386

15,736

16,870

82.9

100.1

104.1

106.9

Yen to US Dollar Exchange Rate

98.8

WTI Crude Oil Price

(Dollar / Barrel)

94.2 105.8

98.9 100.3 102.6 103.1 103.5 104.7 105.2 105.6 106.8 107.2 107.9
97.6

97.0

96.4

94.1

91.8

89.9

90.2

90.7

91.2

91.7

92.0

98.7

93.0

90.9

Corporate Goods Price Index **

0.7

2.2

2.5

2.8

5.3

4.5

4.3

3.5

0.4

0.4

2.1

2.3

-1.1

2.1

4.4

1.3

Consumer Price Index,

All Items Less Fresh Food **

0.0

0.7

1.1

1.5

2.8

2.7

2.7

2.8

1.1

0.9

2.0

1.9

-0.2

0.8

2.8

1.5

Current Balance of Payments /

Nominal GDP (%)

1.9

0.5

-0.3

-0.2

0.1

0.0

0.1

0.6

0.2

0.0

0.1

0.8

0.9

0.4

0.4

0.5

Real U.S. GDP (2009 Dollars) **

(Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate)

2.5

4.1

3.2

1.9

2.4

2.7

2.9

2.7

2.8

2.8

2.8

2.7

2.8
(C.Y.)

Real China GDP (1990 Prices) **

7.5

7.8

7.7

7.5

7.5

7.0

7.0

7.2

7.1

7.0

6.9

7.0

7.7
(C.Y.)

1.9
(C.Y.)

2.7
(C.Y.)

7.7
(C.Y.)

7.3
(C.Y.)

[Notes] 1. * Changes from the previous quarter (%), ** Year-on-year percentage change (%), *** Contributions to changes in real GDE growth over the previous period (%pt)
2. Figures for the corporate goods price index, consumer price index, indices of industrial production are at 2010 year basis.
3. Figures for GDP components, compensation of employees, unemployment rate, indices of industrial production and current account are seasonally adjusted.
4. Japan's fiscal year is April 1 to March 31.
5. Figures for the 10-year government bond yield, stock prices, oil prices, exchange rate and unemployment rate are shown as period averages.
Copyright (c) Japan Center for Economic Research. All Rights Reserved

2.8
(C.Y.)

7.0
(C.Y.)