Williams: Royal Wedding RNG Exploration 1

Field RNG Exploration: The British Royal Wedding

Bryan Williams Psychical Research Foundation

(Image: Alastair Grant/The Associated ress!

"ollo#ing se$eral months o% close media attention& the #orld #as %inally a'le to #itness the marriage o% England(s rince William to )atherine *iddleton on the morning o% April +,& +-11& a day that #as reportedly 'eing a#aited #ith eager anticipation 'y many people. According to ne#s reports& an estimated +/ million people #ithin the 0nited 1tates t2ned into the la$ish royal #edding ceremony held at England(s %amed Westminster A''ey that morning& either thro2gh the li$e tele$ision co$erage aired 'y the ma3or 'roadcast net#or4s (The Nielsen )ompany& +-11!& or thro2gh li$e streaming $ideo o$er the Internet. Gi$en the mass amo2nt o% attention to the #edding proceedings& and in the contin2ing e%%ort to explore a possi'le 56related mass 7gro2p conscio2sness8 e%%ect associated #ith mass p2'lic e$ents& I carried o2t a %ield RNG exploration o% the e$ent.1 As in other %ield RNG explorations I($e cond2cted& I contin2o2sly ran an 9rion RNG 2no'ser$ed in an empty room o% my home thro2gho2t the d2ration o% the p2'lic #edding e$ents.+ While $ie#ing the li$e T: 'roadcast& I 4ept a r2nning paper time log o% e$ents& #hich allo#ed me to time mar4 the res2lting data and pre6speci%y the d2ration o% the exploration period& prior to examination o% the data. According to most ne#s reports& the #edding #as expected to 'egin at aro2nd 11:-- A.*. ;ondon Time (#hich is < A.*. *o2ntain Time = the time >one I li$e in = and ? A.*. Eastern Time!& and most ma3or net#or4s 'egan their li$e co$erage at least t#o ho2rs 'e%ore this time. "rom this and the res2lting time log& the period o% exploration #as de%ined as

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+:-- = @:-- A.*. *o2ntain Time (,:-- A.*. = +:-- .*. ;ondon Time!. A2ring this period& I speci%ically predicted that a signi%icant de$iation %rom standard randomness in the positi$e (i.e.& increasing or 2p#ard direction! #o2ld 'e o'ser$ed in the RNG data. Bere I present the graphical res2lts o% the %ield RNG exploration o% the #edding& along #ith those o% an in%ormal s2pplementary exploration 2sing the data collected 'y the Internet6'ased glo'al net#or4 o% RNGs operating as an integral part o% the Glo'al )onscio2sness ro3ect (G) C http://noosphere.princeton.ed2!. While $ie#ing the graphs presented here& it is important to 4eep in mind that& altho2gh some o% the images may loo4 interesting on the s2r%ace& it is not proper to assign a lot o% meaning to them. The reason %or this& as pre$io2sly pointed o2t 'y G) director Roger Nelson (+-11C Bancel D Nelson& +--E!& is that it(s o%ten di%%ic2lt to relia'ly disting2ish a gen2ine gro2p conscio2sness 7signal8 %rom the sea o% random 7noise8 that reg2larly permeates the data o2tp2t prod2ced 'y these RNG de$ices. Beca2se o% ho# small they typically are on the statistical le$el& these 7signals8 may sometimes 'e '2ried #ithin the sea o% 7noise&8 to the point #here #e can(t see them. )on$ersely& some interesting6loo4ing 7signals8 may act2ally 'e coincident patterns created 'y nat2ral %l2ct2ations in the sea o% random 7noise&8 #hich are expected to occ2r in this 4ind o% data %rom time6to6time (and in %act& this exploration seems to sho# a good example o% this& as #e(ll see 'elo#!. Th2s& a large n2m'er o% %ield RNG explorations 2s2ally ha$e to 'e carried o2t 'e%ore a relia'le 7signal8 can 'e re$ealed& and #e there%ore ha$e to 'e ca2tio2s #hen trying to interpret indi$id2al exploration res2lts in a meaning%2l #ay. "or that reason& the res2lts presented here %rom this individual %ield RNG exploration o% the Royal Wedding are primarily 732st %or sho#.8 Results from B.W.s RNG "ig2re 1 sho#s the res2lting RNG data that I collected d2ring the exploration period speci%ied a'o$e& #ith some o% the nota'le #edding e$ents mar4ed.

("ig2re 1 can 'e %o2nd on the next page!

Williams: Royal Wedding RNG Exploration /

The British Royal Wedding - April 29, 2011

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225 150 75 0 -75 -150 -225 -300 -375 -450 3:00 4:00 6:00 7:00 2:00 2:30 3:30 4:30 5:00 5:30 6:30
Prince Wi ia! !arrie" #ate $idd eton We"t!in"ter %&&e'( )ondon( En* and Exp oration Period: 2:00 - 7:00 %.$. $o+ntain ,i!e -.7 )ondon ,i!e/( 1-"econd data re"o +tion #ate $idd eton arri2e" W($$)*+ "(R( ,*Wi ia! 0 1arr' ea2e 3 arence 1o+"e 45 do4"67eddin* 2o7" &e*in 8ir"t 9i"" on &a con' RNG data Expectation p = .05 p = .95

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Figure 1. Graphical representation o% the RNG data collected 'y B.W. d2ring the Royal Wedding o% rince William and )atherine *iddleton on the morning o% April +,& +-11. The c2r$ed red arcs indicate the threshold o% statistical signi%icance at the .-F and .,F le$els (i.e.& odds o% +- to 1 against chance! as time passes.

Thro2gho2t the p2'lic e$ents o% the #edding& the RNG data seem to exhi'it a rather steady negati$e (i.e.& decreasing or do#n#ard! de$iation %rom standard randomness that is act2ally opposite to my prediction& and that e$ent2ally exceeds the lo#er threshold o% statistical signi%icance at the . ,F le$el. This de$iation is so steady that& had I predicted its occ2rrence 'e%orehand& it #o2ld ha$e odds o% a'o2t 1-- to 1 against chance ()hi6sG2are H 1@FF@.-?& 1E--- df& eG2i$alent to p H .--,F!. As a 2se%2l comparison& I also collected a series o% matching control data on the morning o% April +E (the day 'e%ore the #edding!. These data #ere collected 2sing the same RNG& 2nder ro2ghly the same conditions& and d2ring the same time period as the act2al #edding data (#ith the only di%%erence 'eing that the control data #ere o%%set in time 'y one day!. These matching control data are sho#n in "ig2re +.

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"ontrol - The British Royal Wedding - April 29, 2011

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3ontro RNG data ta9en da' &e;ore 7eddin* -%pri 2:/ Exp oration Period: 2:00 - 7:00 %.$. $o+ntain ,i!e -.7 )ondon ,i!e/( 1-"econd data re"o +tion Wi ia! 0 1arr' ea2e 3 arence 1o+"e 45 do4"67eddin* 2o7" &e*in W($$)*+ "(R( ,*8ir"t 9i"" on &a con' 3ontro data Expectation p = .05 p = .95

#ate $idd eton arri2e"

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Figure 2. Graphical representation o% the matching control RNG data collected 'y B.W. on the day 'e%ore the Royal Wedding o% rince William and )atherine *iddleton. The c2r$ed red arcs indicate the threshold o% statistical signi%icance at the .-F and .,F le$els (i.e.& odds o% +- to 1 against chance! as time passes.

These control data seem to o%%er an interesting insight in that& li4e the act2al data& they too exhi'it a rather steady negati$e de$iation %rom randomness. Tho2gh not as persistent in de$iation as the act2al data& these control data slightly exceed the lo#er threshold o% statistical signi%icance at the .,F le$el. I% predicted %or& they #o2ld 'e marginally signi%icant at odds o% +- to 1 against chance ()hi6sG2are H 1@?EF.+E& 1E--- df& eG2i$alent to p H . -<E!. "or a direct comparison o% the t#o& a graph o% the control data s2perimposed 2pon the act2al data ta4en d2ring the #edding is sho#n in "ig2re /.

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The British Royal Wedding - April 29, 2011

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Grap<ica 3o!pari"on: %ct+a RNG data -& +e/ 2". 3ontro RNG data -*reen/ Exp oration Period: 2:00 - 7:00 %.$. $o+ntain ,i!e -.7 )ondon ,i!e/ 1-"econd data re"o +tion Wi ia! 0 1arr' ea2e 3 arence 1o+"e 45 do4"62o7" &e*in W($$)*+ "(R( ,*8ir"t 9i"" on &a con' RNG data 3ontro data Expectation p = .05 p = .95

#ate $idd eton arri2e"

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Figure 3. Graphical comparison o% the act2al exploration RNG data ('l2e trace! and the matching control RNG data (yello#6green trace! collected 'y B.W. %or the Royal Wedding o% rince William and )atherine *iddleton. The c2r$ed red arcs indicate the threshold o% statistical signi%icance at the .-F and .,F le$els (i.e.& odds o% +- to 1 against chance! as time passes.

9n the s2r%ace& this seems to pro$ide a $ery important lesson as to #hy #e cannot apply m2ch meaning to the res2lts o% indi$id2al %ield RNG exploration res2lts. Altho2gh they #ere expected to 'e at chance& the control data I collected are instead de$iant %or a reason that remains 2nclear. 9ne possi'le reason is that this is an expected %l2ct2ation in random data. Beca2se the 7sea8 o% random noise is expected to %l2ct2ate %rom time6to6time (as noted a'o$e!& s2ch 7ch2rnings8 o% the 7sea8 can sometimes arti%icially prod2ce patterns in the RNG data that can masG2erade as a 7signal&8 and can th2s 'e misleading. Th2s& it may ser$e as a possi'le ill2strati$e example as to #hy #e can (and sho2ld! not try to interpret the act2al #edding data #ith a lot o% meaning. Another possi'le reason s2ggested 'y a %riend I sho#ed the res2lts to is that& since I collected the control data on the day 'e%ore the #edding& the res2lt might re%lect the pre6#edding 73itters8 that many people may ha$e had in anticipation o% the e$ent (especially those directly participating!. While it might 'e a slight possi'ility& there is c2rrently no #ay in #hich #e can directly $eri%y this& and I personally tend to thin4 that the 7expected random

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%l2ct2ation8 $ie#point is the more li4ely possi'ility (again 4eeping in mind that #e sho2ld limit meaning%2l interpretation!. Th2s& #hile the RNG data I collected d2ring the #edding do loo4 some#hat interesting on the s2r%ace& #e cannot say that they exhi'it any 4ind o% gro2p conscio2sness e%%ect. Results from the GCP RNG Network In ma4ing my a priori prediction %or this %ield RNG exploration on "ace'oo4& *ichael A2ggan s2ggested that I sho2ld compare the RNG data I collected on the day o% the #edding #ith those collected 'y the glo'al net#or4 o% RNGs (#hich are o%ten called 7EGGs8! 'eing maintained 'y the G) . Altho2gh they are not directly compara'le& I decided to carry o2t a s2pplementary exploration 2sing the G) EGGs 32st to see the res2lts. "ig2re < sho#s the data %rom the @- EGGs acti$ely r2nning in the G) (s glo'al net#or4 on the morning o% the #edding. 5eeping in line #ith my exploration& the data are %rom the same exploration period that I speci%ied a'o$e./
The British Royal Wedding - April 29, 2011
2:0 230 1:0 130 :0 30 -20 -70 2:30 3:00 4:00 4:30 5:00 5:30 6:00 2:00 3:30 6:30 7:00
8ir"t 9i"" on &a con' RNG data Expectation p = .05

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Prince Wi ia! !arrie" #ate $idd eton Exp oration Period: 2:00 - 7:00 %$ $o+ntain ,i!e -.6 =,3/ 70 EGG" reportin*( 1-"econd data re"o +tion

2o7" W($$)*+ Wi ia! 0 1arr' ea2e #ate $idd eton 3 arence 1o+"e arri2e"

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Figure 4. Graphical representation o% the data collected 'y the G) (s glo'al net#or4 o% RNGs (7EGGs8! d2ring the Royal Wedding o% rince William and )atherine *iddleton on the morning o% April +,& +-11. The c2r$ed red arc indicates the threshold o% statistical signi%icance at the .-F le$el (i.e.& odds o% +- to 1 against chance! as time passes.

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5eeping in mind that they are not directly compara'le& the data %rom the G) EGGs d2ring the #edding are similar to those %rom my RNG& in that they seem to exhi'it signs o% a negati$e trend (al'eit a $ery modest one!. In general& these EGG data loo4 nominally random& as #e #o2ld expect them to 'e 2nder ordinary& non6e$ent circ2mstances& a point emphasi>ed 'y the %inding that these data ha$e odds o% less than + to 1 against chance ()hi6 sG2are H 1@,@<.+@& 1E--- df& eG2i$alent to p H .FF/!. 9% co2rse& #ith the large n2m'er o% EGGs (@-! in the G) net#or4 and so m2ch attention 'eing paid to the royal #edding& yo2 may #onder& 7#hy didn(t the EGGs clearly respondI8 Again this seems to 'e largely related to the small statistical nat2re o% gro2p conscio2sness e%%ects. In this case& #e may ha$e to consider the possi'ility that the 7signal8 is so s2'tle and %leeting that it is '2ried in the sea o% 7noise&8 to the point #here #e can(t see it (i% it(s there!. 9nce more& this possi'ly sho#s a good ill2stration o% #hy #e can(t (and sho2ldn(t! try to apply a lot o% meaning to the RNG data collected d2ring indi$id2al e$ents. 9nly #hen #e loo4 at the com'ined data %rom many indi$id2al e$ents (as in the G) C see the lin4 to its #e'site a'o$e! do #e see strong e$idence %or a possi'le mass 7gro2p conscio2sness8 e%%ect (#hich& in the G) (s case& is on a glo'al scale!. "or a 'it more sho#& "ig2re F displays the G) EGGs gro2ped into their general regions o% the #orld: England (;ondonC 12ssex& 05!& 0nited 1tates6 )anada& )entral D 1o2th America ()ent61 Amer!& E2rope& A%rica D the *iddle East (A%rica6*E!& Asia& and A2stralia D the islands o% the aci%ic Rim (A2st6 R!.

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Regional (++s - The British Royal Wedding - April 29, 2011

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G3P EGG" Gro+ped &' Wor d Re*ion Exp oration Period: 2:00 - 7:00 %.$. $o+ntain ,i!e -.6 =,3/ 1-"econd data re"o +tion )ondon >+""ex( =# =>-3anada 3ent-> %!er E+rope %;rica-$E %"ia %+"t-PR Expectation p = .05 p = .95

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Figure . Graphical representation o% the Royal Wedding data %rom the G) EGGs gro2ped into their general regions o% the #orld. The c2r$ed red arcs indicate the threshold o% statistical signi%icance at the .-F and .,F le$els (i.e.& odds o% +- to 1 against chance! as time passes. It sho2ld 'e noted that the strong res2lt %rom the A2st6 R gro2p (electric 'l2e trace! is 'ased on the a$erage o% only t#o EGGs.

Altho2gh it co2ld ha$e 'een 'ro2ght a'o2t 'y chance& it is perhaps interesting to note that %i$e o% the eight gro2ps (incl2ding those closest to the #edding ta4ing place in England! seem to exhi'it negati$e trends& and to this extent& loo4 similar to the negati$e trend o'tained in my RNG exploration. 9ne might 'e rather impressed 'y the strong trend exhi'ited 'y the A2stralia6 aci%ic Rim gro2p& altho2gh it sho2ld 'e noted that this gro2p contained only t#o EGGs& and th2s co2ld 'e an in%lated res2lt. Again d2e to statistical iss2es& #e m2st 'e ca2tio2s a'o2t meaning%2l interpretation. 9$erall& #e cannot say that any 4ind o% mass 7gro2p conscio2sness8 e%%ect #as clearly exhi'ited in the RNG data %rom my exploration o% the Royal Wedding& or in the G) EGG data& on the 'asis o% these res2lts. B2t they do seem to ha$e $al2e in the possi'le lesson they teach 2s a'o2t trying to meaning%2lly interpret RNG data %rom indi$id2al e$ents. In short& the statistical e%%ects typically seen in %ield RNG explorations are 32st too small o%tentimes on the indi$id2al e$ent le$el to allo# 2s to con%idently apply any le$el o% meaning to them. To do that& #e m2st loo4 at the com ined res2lts %rom many %ield RNG explorations to see i% a 7signal8 is nota'ly apparent& apart %rom the sea o% random 7noise.8 9$er the co2rse o% its 1/6year r2n& the G) has 'een a'le to do this& and has o'tained a statistically signi%icant

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res2lt (#ith odds c2rrently greater than a 'illion to one! across the more than /-- indi$id2al #orld e$ents that it has examined (Bancel D Nelson& +--EC Nelson& +-11C see also the G) #e'site lin4 a'o$e!. This seems to 'e an important lesson to heed in the e%%ort to try and ma4e sense o% the $arying res2lts o'tained across many %ield RNG explorations.
Notes: 1.! 9riginally& I #as to 'e 3oined in this %ield RNG exploration 'y *i4e Wilson& #ho had planned to r2n his o#n %ield RNG d2ring the Royal Wedding. 0n%ort2nately& d2e to technical iss2es& he #as 2na'le to do this. Bo#e$er& I #o2ld li4e to ac4no#ledge his e%%ort in trying to do so& #hich I do appreciate (than4s& *i4e!. +.! A starting 'asis %or determining the time seG2ence o% p2'lic e$ents came %rom a tentati$e timeline o% e$ents p2'lished on the AB) Ne#s #e'site (Golodryga D )hapman& +-11!. /.! This exploration period is slightly di%%erent %rom the period speci%ied 'y the G) %or its %ormal examination o% the #edding& in that the start time is shi%ted 'ac4 t#o ho2rs and ends t#o ho2rs 'e%ore the G) period. The res2lt %or the act2al G) prediction is also modestly negati$e and near chance o$erall (see the %ormal G) res2lt at http://noosphere.princeton.ed2/#illiam.catherine.html!.

Re!eren"es:
Bancel& .& D Nelson& R. (+--E!. The G) e$ent experiment: Aesign& analytical methods& res2lts. !ournal of "cientific #$ploration & %%& /-, = ///. Golodryga& B.& D )hapman& ). (+-11!. rince William and 5ate *iddleton(s #edding day timeline. A$aila'le o$er the Internet at: http://a'cne#s.go.com/International/RoyalJWedding/prince6#illiam64ate6 middletons6royal6#edding6day6timeline/storyIidH1//-E@@,. Retrie$ed April +@& +-11. Nelson& R. (+-11!. Aetecting mass conscio2sness: E%%ects o% glo'ally shared attention and emotion. !ournal of Cosmolo&y& :ol2me 1<. Electronic 3o2rnal a$aila'le o$er the Internet at: http://###.3o2rnalo%cosmology.com/)onscio2sness1-+.html. Retrie$ed April +@& +-11. The Nielsen )ompany. (+-11!. +/ million #atch royal #edding in 0.1. Internet 'log article a$aila'le at: http://'log.nielsen.com/nielsen#ire/mediaJentertainment/+/6million6#atch6 royal6#edding6in626s/. Retrie$ed *ay +& +-11.