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Incorporating material from the Observer,
Le Monde and the Washington Post
Vol 189 No 5 2.20 4.20* Exclusions apply
A week in the life of the world | 12-18 July 2013
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Can political Islam ever work?
Egypts coup deals blow
to religious democracy
Fallout likely to be felt
through Muslim world
Even the most global events, those
whose reverberations are felt far be-
yond their borders, are rooted in the
specic and local. Last weeks coup
inEgypt, the army stepping into re-
move and then arrest the democrati-
cally elected president, is no dier-
ent. The toppling of Mohamed Morsi
had a hundred causes, many of them
peculiar to Egypt. Achoice exam-
ple: Morsi wanted to close all shops
at 10pm, so that Egyptians would
be fully rested in time for morning
prayers. That didnt go down well in
famously nocturnal Cairo.
Still, what happens in Egypt mat-
ters outside Egypt. One in four Arabs
is said to be Egyptian, the ancient
nationrepeatedly setting the lead
the rest of the Arab world follows.
One example: within a decade or two
of Nasser taking power in the early
50s, similar regimes were in place in
Iraq, Libya, Syria and Sudan.
One analyst says that the im-
plications of the latest events will
resonate even further, reaching
Indonesia, Pakistan and every place
where Muslims form the majority. Of
course the nearer neighbours are af-
fected most directly. The ambitious
Gulf state of Qatar, Morsis fellow
Islamists in Turkey, and the Muslim
Brothers of Hamas are among initial
losers, each having invested heavily
in the one-year president only to see
that investment evaporate.
But the fallout spreads far wider.
For this represents a deep blow not
just to Morsi and the other Brother-
hood leaders rounded up on the
generals orders. It strikes at a larger
project: namely, the creation of a
modern, viable form of political Is-
lam, one that aspires not just to be a
movement of protest but capable of
government. Granted a trial run on
For better or worse the military deposition of Mohamed Morsi will have global implications Khalil Hamra/AP
Comment
Jonathan Freedland
the biggest possible stage, that show
has now closed after just a year.
What to make of this failure of
the Islamist experiment? The hos-
tile will say this was no surprise.
Citing the conduct of the man who
before Morsi was most named as the
potential model of moderate Islam-
ism, Turkeys Recep Tayyip Erdogan
who last month crushed a wave of
anti-government protests they will
regret without sincerity that this
proves Islam and democracy are
incompatible. They might repeat that
oft-quoted nugget of cynicism: in
the Muslim world democracy means
one man, one vote, one time. In
this view, the 2012 Egyptian elec-
tion was always bound to be a freak
event, never to be repeated.
Defenders of Islamism will say
Morsis brand was denied a chance
to prove itself, strangled at birth by
the forces that took back control last
week. In this version, the Brother-
hood was Continued on page 5
Sarkozys new
eyes for France
Former president
plots a comeback
South Sudan
atcrossroads
Leaders feud
risks peace
new
rance
eessiiddeenntt
mmeebbaacckk
4 The Guardian Weekly 12.07.13
International news Egypt
Ian Black and
Patrick Kingsley Cairo
Egyptians were braced for further
violence after at least 51 supporters
of the deposed president Mohamed
Morsi were killed on Monday by se-
curity forces in what the Muslim
Brotherhood condemned as a massa-
cre, but the military insisted was the
result of an armed attack on a Cairo
barracks.
Hours after the countrys single
bloodiest incident in over a year,
interim president Adly Mansour set
out a timetable for amending the con-
stitution, and for elections for early
2014. Under a constitutional declara-
tion by Mansour late on Monday, he
would create two appointed commit-
tees to work out amendments to the
Islamist-drafted constitution passed
under Morsi.
A referendum on the new docu-
ment would be held within four
months. Elections for a new par-
liament would be held within two
months after that, around mid-Feb-
ruary. Once the new parliament con-
venes, it would have a week to set new
presidential elections.
Morsi, narrowly elected a year ago,
was deposed by the Egyptian military
last Wednesday after mass protests
led by the Tamarod (Rebellion) move-
ment. Mansour, the head of the high
constitutional court, replaced him as
interim president. Morsi supporters
say it was a military coup. Opponents
call it a continuation of the revolu-
tion that overthrew Hosni Mubarak
in 2011.
Mondays incident took place out-
side a Republican Guard o cers club
where Morsi had been rumoured to be
in detention. The Brotherhood said its
people were attacked during morning
prayers, but the army said an attempt
had been made by a terrorist group
to storm the heavily guarded build-
ing. Emergency services confirmed
435 people were injured.
Egypts interim presidency an-
nounced a judicial investigation into
the killings, but that did not appease
angry crowds . The US said it was
deeply concerned and called on
Egypts army to exercise maximum
restraint.
Sheikh Ahmed el-Tayeb, head of
the al-Azhar mosque and the coun-
trys senior Muslim cleric, warned of
the danger of civil war after the ear-
lier shootings and said he was going
into seclusion until violence ended
and reconciliation began.
Injured victims described how
shooting began hours after hundreds
of thousands of people attended ri-
val rallies for and against Morsi. The
deaths blocked attempts to form a
new civilian-led transitional gov-
ernment and fuelled already high
tensions on the eve of the Ramadan
holiday.
There were dawn prayers and then
I heard someone calling for help, Mo-
hamed Saber el-Sebaei said. Just be-
fore we nished, the shooting started.
The army units that were standing in
front of the Republican Guard head-
quarters rst started shooting teargas,
then live ammunition above peoples
heads.
People started to fall back and then
an armoured vehicle came round the
right-hand side escorted by a group
of soldiers with their ries shooting
directly into the people.
Initial claims that women and chil-
dren were among the dead were not
confirmed. But a doctor running a
eld hospital called the three hours
he had spent treating casualties some
of the worst in his life.
The army said an armed terror-
ist group had tried to break into the
compound and attacked security
forces. Two policemen and an army
o cer died and 40 soldiers were in-
jured, with seven in critical condition.
The army said it had arrested at least
200 people with large quantities of
firearms, ammunition and Molotov
cocktails.
But many unanswered questions
remained. Protesters could not agree
whether the security forces red rst
with teargas or live ammunition.
Some were lmed holding rearms.
In immediate political fallout, the
conservative Sala Noor party with-
drew from already faltering talks on
a transitional government. Political
sources said Mohamed ElBaradei
or Ziad Baha al-Din were likely to be
named interim prime minister.
The US has been trying to defuse
the crisis by brokering an agreement
between the Brotherhood and the
military, but Egyptian analysts and
politicians say there is now no chance
Morsi will be restored or that the de-
fence minister, General Abdel Fatah
al-Sisi, will resign, as the Islamists are
demanding.
Massacre leaves
anation in turmoil
Muslim Brotherhood
condemns killings as
political solution stalls
How a tiny band of coee
Martin Chulov and
Patrick Kingsley Cairo
Last Wednesday morning, as Mo-
hamed Morsi sat discussing his plight
with a small coterie of aides at a base in
the east of Cairo, a senior adviser reas-
sured him that the presidential guard
would protect him, no matter what.
But as Egyptian troops moved in on
the base on the orders of army chief
Abdul Fattah al-Sisi, even this elite
unit slipped away, so Morsi could be
easily detained. As with so many of
the political errors of his presidency,
Morsi hadnt seen it coming.
The 3 July coup may have been ex-
ecuted by the military, but its roots lie
in a civilian movement. On the even-
ing of 15 April, Mohammed Abdul
Aziz and ve other friends sat down
in Borsa coee shop in central Cairo
to plot ways to invigorate Egypts
tired civil opposition. According to
Aziz, the aims were simple at first .
In the beginning all we wanted to
do was gather petitions to renounce
Morsi, he said. But the group soon
got a name, Tamarod (Rebellion).
Within weeks it had also gained a mo-
mentum.
The means were not dissimilar
to the campaign that led to the top-
pling of President Hosni Mubarak 30
months ago. Smartphones, Facebook
and other forms of social media were
critical organising tools, but this time
the boot leather of volunteers and old-
fashioned petitions also played a piv-
otal role. By mid-May, Aziz said, there
were 8,000 volunteers in 15 of Egypts
22 governorates.
Egypts problems had been piling
up since November, little more than
three months into the four-year term
of Morsis government. The economy
was in torpor, the body politic barely
functioning, society deeply polarised.
On one side of a by now gaping di-
vide was the Muslim Brotherhood,
the powerful Islamic group largely
responsible for sweeping Morsi to
Power shift ... opponents of Mohamed
Morsi gather at Cairos Tahrir Square
Suhaib Salem/Reuters
The Guardian Weekly 12.07.13 5
Coup fallout will be felt
far beyond Egypt
More online
Latest news on Cairo
guardian.co.uk/world/
middle-east-live
cheated of
power it won fair and square.
Less straightforward is the view
of those who dream of a secular, lib-
eral democracy in Egypt. Many are
cheered by last weeks events: the
theocrats have been scattered, their
power-grabbing constitution sus-
pended. Yet this is to underestimate
the danger of what has happened.
To remove an elected president,
to arrest a movements leaders and
silence its radio and TV stations, is
to send a loud message to them and
Islamists everywhere. It says: you
have no place in the political sys-
tem. It says: there is no point trying
to forge a version of political Islam
compatible with democracy, because
democracy will not be available to
you. It is the message sent in Algeria
two decades ago, when Islamists
were on course to win an election
but were pushed aside in a military
coup; and in Gaza in 2006, when
Hamas won the votes but were inter-
nationally shunned. Except this time
the point has been rammed home in
one of the mightiest Muslim nations.
The peril is clear . The Muslim
Brotherhood could again be driven
underground. It renounced violence
long ago and few believe it will go
back. But more radical jihadist voices
will now say: you tried the demo-
cratic route, look where it got you.
The challenge for Egypt now is
to somehow stop this pendulum
swing from secular, military-backed
dictatorship to illiberal democracy
and back again, in which one set of
masters seeks to replace entirely the
other typied by Morsis winner-
takes-all approach to power. A more
durable accommodation would
recognise that Islamist andsecular
Egypt have to live together and share
power. That will require the Muslim
Brotherhood not to conclude that
they cannot rule democratically, but
that they cannot rule alone.
The west are not detached by-
standers. US inuence in the region
may be diminishing, but in Egypt it
retains power of the rawest kind: its
$1.3bn in military aid gives it all but a
veto over Egypts armed forces. The
US could have used that muscle to
head o this crisis months ago, pres-
suring the army and Morsi to come to
an agreement. Instead Morsi and his
movement will now be martyrs.
Of course, its hard not to root for
the crowds in Tahrir Square, thrilled
to be rid of a man apparently bent
on becoming a theocratic tyrant.
But the manner of his departure
could pave the way for something far
worse forEgypt and beyond.
Leader comment, page 22
shop rebels triggered Morsis fall
power in elections last June. On the
other was the rest of the country
about 48% of voters, according to the
poll that gave Morsi the presidency
with close to 52% of the popular vote.
The disaected included a band of
unlikely allies, who sit uneasily even
now; at one end were the leftists and
secularists, at the other those who
resentedthe toppling of Mubarak.
The latter had been a formidable
foe-in-waiting. Away from the scenes
of Tahrir Square in January 2011, many
millions of Egyptians were uncom-
fortable with Mubaraks demise. They
had been safe under the dictator and
some of them had prospered. The 17
months after his ignominious exit had
been unsettling for the Mubarak faith-
ful. But the year since Morsis inaug-
uration had been even worse.
It was becoming clear that
everything that the state had built,
everything that it had stood on,
was coming crumbling down, said
Ahmed Badawi, a mid-rank police
o cer unhappy to see Mubarak go. It
was a case of my enemys enemy is
my friend, so we joined them in Tah-
rir Square this time, he said of last
weeks revolts.
A senior western diplomat who
had spent time with Morsi said the
writing was on the wall for his presi-
dency early this year. The army had
become more and more worried by
the [Brotherhood]. The economy
was being wrecked by the movement.
They were spending at least $1.5bn per
month more than they should have.
They were using months of reserves at
a critical level. You couldnt deny the
underlying trend that the government
was heading for bankruptcy.
By March, serious diplomatic ef-
forts had started to convince Morsi to
form a government of national unity.
We were trying to convince them to
broaden the base of political participa-
tion, said the diplomat. After much
negotiation, they declined and then
went about making it even worse by
maintaining a technocratic govern-
ment run by newly promoted lower-
grade o cials with bad ideas.
Bymid-June, withother stateinsti-
tutions sharing the militarys alarm,
the tide was turning against Morsi.
T amarod claimed to have received
more than 20m petition signatures.
Within a week, citizens experi-
enced shortages of essentials . In the
lead-up to the first anniversary of
Morsis swearing-in 30 June the
date chosen by Tamarod for a march to
Tahrir Square, the shortages seemed
specially severe. T he army had given
Morsi the rst ultimatum: nd ways
to end the crisis within a week. Unable
to deliver, Morsi watched as the large
crowds hoped for by the born-again
opposition materialised. The army
posted statements on its Facebook
site acknowledging huge crowds of
protesters on the streets. When the
rst deadline expired, the army gave
Morsi another deadline, this time 48
hours. It was to be his last as leader.
Continued from page 1
theguardianweekly
22 The Guardian Weekly 12.07.13
MiIIions of gyptians took to the streets re-
centIy with Iegitimate compIaints about
Mohamed Morsi. They accused him of mo-
nopoIising power, of assauIting the separa-
tion of powers between the presidency and
the judiciary, of bearing down on journaIists
and ruining the economy. These were genuine
concerns after just one year and the throng
was sweIIed by the deep resentment the Mus-
Iim Brotherhood itseIf had generated. This ex-
pIosion was a Iong time coming.
Last week, however, hundreds of thou-
sands more were on the streets demanding
his restoration. Whether or not Mr Morsi had
been good or bad, he had been their choice and
they were being robbed of it. !f you can take
to the streets, they were saying, we can take
to them too, and they did in provinces aII over
gypt. That is one of the consequences of de-
ciding the fate of regimes with miIitary coups,
however popuIar. Once you stage a coup once,
you can stage another one again. Once parIia-
ments are dissoIved and constitutions sus-
pended, the street becomes the onIy arbiter
of Iegitimacy. !t is, to say the Ieast, ironic that
the African Union caIIed the coup for what it
was and, notabIy, the uropean Union did not.
As the deaths and injuries from street
cIashes and shootings rose, it is not di cuIt
to see where this wiII end up. The stakes are
huge, not just for gypt but for the Arab worId
as a whoIe. Before the disaster of major civiI
unrest in the Arab worIds most popuIous
country unfoIds, two things must be done.
AII parties must be incIuded in the transition
and eIections must be heId as soon as possibIe.
This is a matter of deeds as weII as words. !t is
IittIe use for the judge who has been propeIIed
into the position of being the countrys new
interim president, AdIy Mansour, to reach out
to members of the MusIim Brotherhood, and
to caII it part of the fabric of society, when ]OO
Brotherhood o ciaIs have been arrested and
warrants have been issued for its entire top
Ieadership. !n the jargon of such operations,
this is caIIed decapitation. !t is designed to
crippIe an organisation and prevent it from
organising Iegitimate opposition.
!nviting the army in may yet prove to be one
of the biggest mistakes that the demonstra-
tion in Tahrir Square made. The miIitary onIy
agreed to aIIow presidentiaI eIections to take
pIace after the faII of Hosni Mubarak because
a majority of its top sta reaIised they couId
not controI the country on their own. That
concIusion is even truer today, as the protest
against the coup muItipIies. The army is not
protecting any revoIution by opening re on
feIIow gyptian citizens whoever they may
be. !t is imperiIIing it.
There are serious questions in poIitics. And
there are siIIy questions. Britains pIace in the
uropean Union is a serious question of the
rst order. So, possibIy with some reserva-
tions, is a referendum on continued British
membership of the U. But ames Wharton
MPs uropean Union (referendum) biII,
which the massed ranks of Conservative MPs
voted for unanimousIy Iast riday, does not
raise a serious question at aII. !nstead, this
attempt to bind the next parIiament to hoId
a referendum in 2O17 is a sideshow, even by
the standards of the farce that now passes for
Conservative party debate on urope. !t is a
siIIy stunt, nothing more and nothing Iess.
Labour and LiberaI Democrat MPs adopted
the simpIe expedient of going back to their
own constituencies as usuaI Iast riday, thus
denying Mr Wharton the chance to inate this
exercise into a major poIiticaI event.
!t is Iess than six months since David Cam-
eron a Conservative Ieader who once sensibIy
warned his party against banging on about u-
rope went to the City of London and banged
on that a future Tory government wouId hoId
a referendum on UK membership of the U
in 2O17. This was meant to cement Mr Cam-
erons controI over his party over urope. But
in May, after Ukip eIectoraI successes had put
the wind up the Tory party (much of which
beIieves Ukip is right about Ieaving the U
anyway), a succession of serving and former
ministers said they want Britain out . As a con-
stitutionaI position it is a nonsense, because
no parIiament can bind its successors. As an
exercise in Ieadership it has been shamefuI.
PoIitics, though, is a ckIe business. The
same Conservatives who Iost their heads
over urope and pIotted against Mr Cameron
in May have now rather Iost their interest in
the biII that they once deemed to be so cruciaI
to his Ieadership. ust conceivabIy, this may
have something to do with the recent drop-o
in poII support and pubIicity for Ukip. ear of
Ukip on the Tory benches has not disappeared
but it has certainIy decIined.
Divisions on urope between those who
want to Ieave and those who want to stay re-
main as Iarge as ever. urope remains a funda-
mentaI and serious question in British Iife . But
the Tory party no Ionger has anything serious
to say about it.
EU referendum
Gesture politics
Egypt
On the brink of disaster
Selling ction
byits weight
12 July 1909
The six-shiIIing noveI has withstood
severaI attacks, of which, perhaps,
the sevenpenny reprint is the most
insidious, and we seem to be enter-
ing upon an experimentaI period
which may bring the soIution of a
considerabIe di cuIty.
Mr. WIIIIAH HLINLHANN recentIy
remarked on the inconsistency of
paying the same sum for Iong or
short, good or bad, and he proposes ,
in a Ietter which he has issued to the
trade, to make certain distinctions.
He wiII pubIish a series of noveIs in
the autumn which wiII be either two
shiIIings or three shiIIings net per
voIume, according to their size.
!f the noveIs are Iong they wiII be
in two voIumes, and here, we think,
Mr. HLINLHANN is on dangerous
ground. !t is true that the worId once
managed to get on with three-voI-
ume noveIs, but the wrong voIume
was aIways turning up and the right
one sIipping away out of sight; stiII,
if the change wiII give the author
more scope we shaII not grumbIe.
OddIy enough, Mr HLINLHANN
suggests that he has soIved the
probIem of giving the buyer vaIue
for his money. The di cuIty is, it
seems to us, that it may be neces-
sary to obtain the bigger prices for
what are, from the pubIishers point
of view, the inferior noveIs.
The uniform and comparativeIy
high price of noveIs gives a chance
to writers who couId never hope
for very Iarge saIes, though their
books are of better quaIity than
the ephemeraI stu that is bought
by thousands. ive hundred peo-
pIe might want a good, unpopuIar
noveI, and wouId pay a price that
wouId give, say, a prot of sixpence
to the pubIisher; but if this book be
produced at a price that might give a
penny prot there wiII not be three
thousand readers for it.
However, art has aIways strug-
gIed with this di cuIty of nding
somebody to pay for it, and this has
had its use in tethering it within the
range of humanity. !t is consoIing to
remember that some popuIar books
are good.
!f we compare THL BIRB-LIIL UI
LUNBUN (W. Heinemann, 6s. net)
with the |same| book of (O years
ago, we nd strange changes. Then
a few pairs of ringdoves nested near
London, now hundreds of these
tame and fat pigeons strut about the
parks and squares; the bIack-headed
guII was a rare visitor, now seIdom
absent and nowhere in these isIands
so tame.