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Readiness Good/Bad
Index
Index........................................................................................................................................................................................................1 *** Readiness Good ***.........................................................................................................................................................................2 Allied Prolif- Generic Scenario (1 of 2)..................................................................................................................................................3 Allied Prolif- Generic Scenario (2 of 2).................................................................................................................................................. Allied Prolif- !a"an Scenario..................................................................................................................................................................# Allied Prolif- !a"an- Asian Prolif $%...............................................................................................................................................& Allied Prolif- !a"an- 'as(mir )...............................................................................................................................................................* Allied Prolif- !a"an- Confidence Re-arm.......................................................................................................................................+ Allied Prolif- ,ai-an Scenario (1 of 2)................................................................................................................................................... Allied Prolif- ,ai-an Scenario (2 of 2)................................................................................................................................................1/ Allied Prolif- Interal for Asia Scenarios- Readiness 0..........................................................................................................................11 Asian Stabilit1 Scenario........................................................................................................................................................................12 Asian Prolif Scenario............................................................................................................................................................................13 2e3e Scenario (1 of 2)..........................................................................................................................................................................1 2e3e Scenario (2 of 2)..........................................................................................................................................................................1# 2e3e- Readiness 0 deterrence4-arfi3(tin3 (1 of 2)..............................................................................................................................1& 2e3e- Readiness 0 deterrence4-arfi3(tin3 (2 of 2)..............................................................................................................................1* $' Scenario..........................................................................................................................................................................................1+ $'- Readiness 0...................................................................................................................................................................................1. Re3ional Conflicts Scenario (1 of 2).....................................................................................................................................................2/ Re3ional Conflicts Scenario (2 of 2).....................................................................................................................................................21 Re3ional Conflicts- Perce"tion of Readiness 0e1.................................................................................................................................22 Re3ional Conflicts- Readiness 0e1 (1 of 2)..........................................................................................................................................23 Re3ional Conflicts- Readiness 0e1 (2 of 2)..........................................................................................................................................2 Re3ional Conflicts- Prolif )...................................................................................................................................................................2# Re3ional Conflicts- ,errorism ) (1 of 2)...............................................................................................................................................2& Re3ional Conflicts- ,errorism ) (2 of 2)...............................................................................................................................................2* Re3ional Conflicts- 5a6ndr1 list )........................................................................................................................................................2+ Re3ional Conflicts- ) Calc Probabilit1..................................................................................................................................................2. ,ai-an Scenario (1 of 2).......................................................................................................................................................................3/ ,ai-an Scenario (2 of 2).......................................................................................................................................................................31 ,ai-an- Readiness 0e1 (1 of 2)............................................................................................................................................................32 ,ai-an- Readiness 0e1 (2 of 2)............................................................................................................................................................33 ,errorism Scenario (1 of 2)...................................................................................................................................................................3 ,errorism Scenario (2 of 2)...................................................................................................................................................................3# ,errorism- Readiness 0e1 (1 of 2)........................................................................................................................................................3& ,errorism- Readiness 0e1 (2 of 2)........................................................................................................................................................3* ,errorism- 7ailed States 0e1.................................................................................................................................................................3+ A, Inter8ention 9ad- ) t4 S(ield (1 of 2)..............................................................................................................................................3. A, Inter8ention 9ad- ) t4 S(ield (2 of 2).............................................................................................................................................. / A, Inter8entionism- Its Good (1 of 2).................................................................................................................................................. 1 A, Inter8entionism- Its Good (2 of 2).................................................................................................................................................. 2 A, Inter8entionism ,errorism......................................................................................................................................................... 3 A, $o s"ecific scenario "ro8es no )..................................................................................................................................................... *** Readiness 9ad ***......................................................................................................................................................................... # Co6nterbalancin3 Scenario................................................................................................................................................................... & Inter8ention4Pre-em"tion Scenario (1 of 3).......................................................................................................................................... * Inter8ention4Pre-em"tion Scenario (2 of 3).......................................................................................................................................... + Inter8ention4Pre-em"tion Scenario (3 of 3).......................................................................................................................................... . Inter8entionism- ,errorism (1 of 2).................................................................................................................................................#/ Inter8entionism- ,errorism (2 of 2).................................................................................................................................................#1 Inter8entionism- A, Ine8itable.............................................................................................................................................................#2 Inter8entionism- %on:t deter conflict...................................................................................................................................................#3 Readiness 6nnecessar14-on:t colla"se.................................................................................................................................................# $o ) (1 of 2)..........................................................................................................................................................................................## 1
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Readiness Good/Bad
$o ) (1 of 2)..........................................................................................................................................................................................#& A, Asian Stabilit1................................................................................................................................................................................#* A, German1.........................................................................................................................................................................................#+ A, !a"anese Prolif................................................................................................................................................................................#. A, Iran..................................................................................................................................................................................................&/ A, Israel...............................................................................................................................................................................................&1 A, 'as(mir...........................................................................................................................................................................................&2 A, ,ai-an -ar.....................................................................................................................................................................................&3 A, ,ai-anese Prolif (1 of 2)................................................................................................................................................................& A, ,ai-anese Prolif (2 of 2)................................................................................................................................................................&#
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Readiness Good/Bad
commitments far from its national territor1. It maintains -orld-ide militar1 de"lo1ments to 0ee" alliances credible. It ri3(tl1 desires a militar1 so 6nambi36o6sl1 stron3 t(at it can 3enerall1 deter -ar and= failin3 t(at= -in decisi8e 8ictories -it( minimal cas6alties. 7inall1= 3i8en t(at its armed forces are not "artic6larl1 lar3e (constit6tin3 onl1 abo6t & "ercent of 3lobal militar1 man"o-er)= it relies on (i3(-C6alit1 and t(6s ex"ensi8e eC6i"ment and man"o-er rat(er t(an s(eer siEe for its -ar-fi3(tin3 ed3e. <8en if t(e Anited States c6t its defense s"endin3 in (alf= it -o6ld still o6ts"end Ian. IraC= and $ort( 'orea b1 a factor of fifteen= and C(ina b1 more t(an 2 to 1. Fet it -o6ld t(en (a8e far too small a militar1 to maintain its 3lobal commitments. As a res6lt= "otential foes mi3(t be tem"ted to attac0 A.S. allies in 0e1 re3ions s6c( as t(e Persian G6lf and $ort(east Asia. Reco3niEin3 t(e "otential dan3er t(ese A.S. allies -o6ld be li0el1 to embar0 on militar1 b6ild6"s= "er(a"s e8en "6rs6in3 n6clear -ea"ons ca"abilities= in a manner t(at co6ld be destabiliEin3. So broad defense b6d3e com"arisons resol8e little= es"eciall1 -(en made bet-een co6rtiers -it( different t1"es of
3lobal militar1 res"onsibilities= economies= and "olitical s1stems.
B. Allied prolif NW
Millo !"
(;arc Gean-= S6mmer= ,(e %as(in3ton H6arterl1= I7acin3 t(e <mer3in3 Realit1 of Re3ional $6clear Ad8ersariesJ= Kol. 1* L3= 5exis@ !acob) ,(e lac0 of credible sec6rit1 ass6rances -ill "6s( allies of t(e Anited States to-ard n6clear arsenals of t(eir o-n to restore t(e militar1 eC6ilibri6m 6"set b1 t(eir local n6clear ad8ersaries or b1 more 3eneral re3ional n6clear instabilities. ,(ese allies ma1 -ell see a realiEation of t(eir 8irt6al n6clear arsenal as t(e onl1 alternati8e to losin3 all infl6ence o8er t(eir o-n national sec6rit1. ,(is de8elo"ment= (o-e8er= -o6ld lead do-n a -orrisome "at(= -it( dan3ero6s im"lications for re3ional stabilit1 and 6ltimatel1 for t(e sec6rit1 of t(e Anited States itself. Mne lesson A.S. defense decision ma0ers s(o6ld ta0e from t(e 3ro-in3 6nderstandin3 of A.S.-So8iet crises is t(at n6clear stabilit1 is not a6tomatic. 91 t(e end of t(e Cold %ar n6clear stabilit1 -as "racticall1 an instit6tion@ in t(e 3
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Readiness Good/Bad
be3innin3 it -as barel1 a conce"t. As (istorians re"ort t(eir findin3s on s6c( e8ents as t(e C6ban missile crisis= it is becomin3 a""arent t(at t(e s6"er"o-ers learned to create stabilit1 on t(e basis of trial and error. n&2 Readin3 t(e res6lts of t(is researc( it is diffic6lt not concl6de t(at= "artic6larl1 in t(e earl1 da1s of A.S.-So8iet com"etition= l6c0 "la1ed an 6ncomfortabl1 si3nificant role in a8oidance of n6clear -ar. It is "ossible t(at t(e ne- n6clear "o-ers -ill learn from t(e (istor1 of A.S.-So8iet n6clear crises= N6st as t(e1 (a8e learned to ta0e ad8anta3e of A.S. tec(nolo3ical inno8ations in t(e de8elo"ment of t(eir o-n n6clear -ea"ons "ro3rams. Per(a"s t(e relati8el1 ra"id de8elo"ment of a stable re3ional n6clear balance is feasible. Mn t(e ot(er (and= A.S. leaders s(o6ld be concerned t(at nations -it( -idel1 8ar1in3 8al6es= t(o63(t "rocesses= and c6lt6res ma1 3o t(ro63( t(e learnin3 ex"erience -it(o6t t(eir o-n 3ood fort6ne. It is (ard to 0no- -(ere an1 n6clear -ar mi3(t end= or -(at lessons onloo0ers -ill ta0e a-a1 from it.
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Readiness Good/Bad
36arantors of sec6rit1. S(o6ld American "rotecti8e "led3es be seen as -ea0enin3= t(e tem"tation to res6rrect t(e n6clear o"tion on t(e "art of bot( states -ill increase -- to t(e conseC6ent detriment of AmericaBs 3lobal anti"roliferation "olic1. <C6all1 si3nificant= (o-e8er= is t(at !a"an= and "ossibl1 So6t( 'orea as -ell= -o6ld of necessit1 (a8e to embar0 on a si3nificant con8entional b6ild6"= es"eciall1 of missile= maritime and air forces. ,(e res6ltin3 force "ost6re -o6ld in "ractice be indistin36is(able from a lon3-ran3e "o-er "roNection ca"abilit1 "ossessin3 an offensi8e orientation. <8en if s6c( forces are de8elo"ed "rimaril1 for defensi8e "6r"oses= t(e1 -ill certainl1 3i8e rise to ne- sec6rit1 dilemmas re3ion--ide -- -(ic(= in t6rn= -o6ld lead to an intense arms race= 3ro-in3 s6s"icions= and "ossibl1 -ar.
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Readiness Good/Bad
,(ere is 3reat concern abo6t (o- -e s(o6ld ens6re t(at bitter ri8alries in t(e Asian "art of t(e 3lobe -ill not brin3 do-n a s1stem t(at is emer3in3 in t(e -orld no-. %e do not -ant a re"eat of 1.1 . I am concerned t(at an armed conflict mi3(t arise in So6t( or <ast Asia in 2//+= for exam"le= and brin3 do-n t(e credit= financial floand ca"ital in t(e re3ion. Irie? I s(are Prof. 'enned1Bs sense of "essimism abo6t some serio6s "roblems facin3 t(e -orld toda1. ,(ere are man1 more so8erei3n nations toda1= and t(e maNorit1 of t(em are ne-l1 inde"endent states. ,(erefore= t(e1 are e8en more nationalistic. $ationalism (as often ser8ed as t(e onl1 s1mbol of national 6nit1 for some African= Asian and ;iddle <astern co6ntries t(at (a8e been 3rated in t(eir re3ions -it(o6t national traditions com"arable to t(ose of <6ro"ean co6ntries. ,(is (as made matters e8en -orse. $ationalism is all t(at can 0ee" a co6ntr1 to3et(er. It is essential to ens6re t(at local conflicts -ill be 0e"t from blo-in3 6" t(e entire -orld.
,(e bloc0s -o6ld fall C6ic0est and (ardest in Asia= -(ere "roliferation "ress6res are alread1 b6ildin3 more C6ic0l1 t(an an1-(ere else in t(e -orld. If a n6clear brea0o6t ta0es "lace in Asia= t(en t(e international arms control a3reements t(at (a8e been "ainsta0in3l1 ne3otiated o8er t(e "ast / 1ears -ill cr6mble. ;oreo8er= t(e Anited
States co6ld find itself embroiled in its fo6rt( -ar on t(e Asian continent in six decades--a costl1 reb60e to t(ose -(o see0 t(e safet1 of 7ortress America b1 (idin3 be(ind national missile defenses. Consider -(at is alread1 (a""enin3? $ort( 'orea contin6es to "la1 36essin3 3ames -it( its n6clear and missile "ro3rams@ So6t( 'orea -ants its o-n missiles to matc( P1on31an3Bs@ India and Pa0istan s(oot across
borders -(ile r6nnin3 a slo--motion n6clear arms race@ C(ina moderniEes its n6clear arsenal amid tensions -it( ,ai-an and t(e Anited States@ !a"anBs 8ice defense minister is forced to resi3n after extollin3 t(e benefits of n6clear
-ea"ons@ and R6ssia---(ose 7ar <ast n6clear de"lo1ments alone ma0e it t(e lar3est Asian n6clear "o-er--str633les to maintain territorial co(erence. 7i8e of t(ese states (a8e n6clear -ea"ons@ t(e ot(ers are ca"able of constr6ctin3 t(em. 5i0e ne6trons firin3 from a
s"lit atom= one nationBs actions can tri33er reactions t(ro63(o6t t(e re3ion= -(ic( in t6rn= stim6late additional actions. ,(ese nations form an interloc0in3 Asian n6clear reaction c(ain t(at 8ibrates dan3ero6sl1 -it( eac( ne- de8elo"ment. If t(e freC6enc1 and intensit1 of t(is reaction c1cle increase= critical decisions ta0en b1 an1 one of t(ese 3o8ernments co6ld cascade into t(e second 3reat -a8e of n6clear--ea"on "roliferation= brin3in3 re3ional and 3lobal economic and "olitical instabilit1 and= "er(a"s= t(e first combat 6se of a n6clear -ea"on since 1. #.
&
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Readiness Good/Bad
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Readiness Good/Bad
States in decline often s6ffer from a 0ind of societal insec6rit1 o8er f6t6re economic and sec6rit1 s(ortfalls. S6c( anxiet1 co6ld -ell tri33er national consideration of n6clear o"tions to forestall t(e (ei3(tened 86lnerabilit1 t(at nat6rall1 accom"anies decline. !6st as failin3 or sli""in3 states (a8e (istoricall1 so63(t to -a3e "re8enti8e -ar a3ainst risin3 and com"etiti8e states in t(e international s1stem= declinin3 states ma1 -ell consider t(e n6clear o"tion as a relati8el1 cost-effecti8e and tec(nicall1 ac(ie8able eC6aliEer t(at co6ld "re8ent t(e stateBs descent into obli8ion or trial b1 risin3 re3ional ri8als. ,(is com"lex societal d1namic of Ore3ime "essimismO is c6rrentl1 in "la1 amon3 8irt6all1 all t(e states in t(e ;iddle <ast= and some mi3(t e8en ar36e in !a"an as -ell. Co6ntries t(at once as"ired to international 3reatness or at least a le8el of "rominence b6t t(at no- fear irrele8ance or -orse mi3(t re3ard n6clear -ea"ons as a -a1 to "ro8ide not onl1 a "s1c(olo3ical (ed3e b6t "otentiall1 a strate3ic one.
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Readiness Good/Bad
e8a"orated. Commission on P6blic Gi"lomac1? t(e Anited States is -idel1 8ie-ed in t(e re3ion as an essential balancin3 force= a 36arantor of "eace and stabilit1 in a "art of t(e -orld -(ere territorial dis"6tes= n6clear "roliferation= ci8il -ar and ot(er ris0s of militar1 ad8ent6rism -arrant A.S. 8i3ilance and readiness.O C(ina offers a 3ood exam"le of t(e c(allen3es= beca6se of a massi8e militar1= n6clear -ea"ons= a "ro"ensit1 to sell destabiliEin3 militar1 eC6i"ment= "roblems -it( ,ai-an= testiness o8er t(e "lanned reinte3ration of 2on3 'on3 in 1..*= and territorial dis"6tes -it( R6ssia and some ot(er former So8iet re"6blics= Kietnam= India=
O,oda1 9(6tan= t(e P(ili""ines= ;ala1sia and 9r6nei. Ironicall1= a $erce$ ion co6rses t(ro63( m6c( of Asia t(at t(e Anited States co6ld be contem"latin3 -it(dra-al from t(e re3ion. ,(at "erce"tion is fed b1 t(e forced closin3 last 1ear of (63e A.S. militar1 installations in t(e P(ili""ines= b1 "o-erf6l "olitical infl6ences in t(e Anited States t(at see0 to foc6s national attention in-ard and b1 American b6d3etar1 constraints. In "art= t(ose fears ma1 (a8e been laid to rest b1 ClintonBs stated sec6rit1 "riorities for t(e re3ion. ,(e1 incl6de a contin6ed A.S. militar1 commitment= stron3er efforts a3ainst -ea"ons of mass destr6ction= ne- re3ional dialo36es on sec6rit1 c(allen3es and s6""ort for democrac1. ,(e most "rominent exam"les of t(e A.S. sec6rit1 commitment to Asia are bases in !a"an and So6t( 'orea. ,(e1 (el" to 0ee" "eace in t(e re3ion and "ro8ide a s"ecific co6nter-ei3(t to "otential a33ression from $ort( 'orea. ,(atBs a central concern= man1 anal1sts a3ree. ,(is national interest -as s6mmed 6" b1 t(e Anited States Ad8isor1
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Readiness Good/Bad
C6iet "ress6re from %as(in3ton. An increasin3 con8entional imbalance and an' sense of alienation or lac6 of s/$$or fro- *as,in2 on co6ld ca6se ,ai-anBs leaders to reconsider s6c( an a""roac(.
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Readiness Good/Bad
2o-e8er= t(e "roblem -it( t(at 0ind of Oacti8e defenseO is t(at it co6ld instead ra"idl1 "ro8o0e t(e 0ind of Oacti8e attac0O it is meant to "re8ent. %o6ld C(ina sit bac0 and allo- ,ai-an to effecti8el1 36arantee its "er"et6al de facto inde"endence for t(e foreseeable f6t6re b1 de"lo1in3 t(e 0ind of missile ca"abilit1 t(at= it co6ld be ar36ed= -o6ld be com"arable to t(e one t(e So8iet Anion tried to "lace in C6ba in t(e earl1 1.&/s to t(reaten t(e Anited States from close at (andQ President !o(n 7= 'enned1 did not sit bac0 and allo- t(e So8iets and t(eir comm6nist C6ban allies. Instead= (e ris0ed a f6ll-scale n6clear -ar in t(e C6ban ;issile crisis of 1.&2 to force t(e -it(dra-al of t(e missiles. %ill C(inaBs President 26 !intao 3o as far as !7' did in dealin3 -it( t(e missiles of ,ai-anQ Mr mi3(t (e e8en 3o f6rt(erQ ;iscalc res6ltin3 from 0ee"in3 -ea"ons on (air-tri33er alert C(inese 7irst Stri0e
and ot(er statesRincl6din3 o6r allies and friendsR-ill be siEin3 6s 6"= to see -(et(er -e (a8e t(e resol8e to face t(reats and deter t(em= and t(e di"lomatic s0ill in "eacetime to mana3e friends(i"s and alliances (a8in3 com"lex "olitical and economic= as -ell as sec6rit1 dimensions. If t(e ans-ers are 1es= and o6r alliances remain stron3= t(en -e ma1 mo8e in Asia= as -e did in t(e <6ro"ean Cold %ar= from t(e eC6i8alent toda1 of t(e (air-raisin3 9erlin Crises of t(e 1.#/s and 1.&/s= to some f6t6re eC6i8alents of Mst"oliti0 and Getente= ca""ed off= "er(a"s= b1 3en6ine liberaliEation in C(ina. 96t if 3e flinc,= t(en Asia -ill become a sec6rit1 free-for- all= li0e <6ro"e in t(e first (alf of t(is cent6r1= -it( e8er1 state armin3= none tr6l1 allied= and none able to find t(e -a1 to "eace.
)N*T+! 'ard also appears elsewhere ,the internal for Asian prolif-)
11
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Readiness Good/Bad
As -e 6nderta0e t(is cam"ai3n to combat terrorism in t(e Asia- Pacific re3ion= t(e critical missions end6re -(ic( -e -ere dealin3 -it( before .411 and -(ic( are still t(ere. ,(e ,ai-an Strait militar1 balance= a $ort( 'orea -(ic( is star8in3 its "o"6lation -(ile sellin3 missiles= and contin6ed tensions bet-een n6clear nei3(bors India and Pa0istan? all of t(ese still 0ee" me a-a0e at ni3(t and contin6all1 0ee" t(e A.S. Pacific Command extremel1 b6s1 maintainin3 deterrence t(ro63( readiness and t(ro63( t(eater sec6rit1 coo"eration.
12
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Readiness Good/Bad
ar' $re$ara ion is best t(o63(t of as ins6rance@ some(o- -e li0e it t(e best if in face -e ne8er need to 6se it. ,(e next se8eral 1ears -ill be an im"ortant test for t(e Anited States in Asia= C(ina= R6ssia= India= and ot(er statesRincl6din3 o6r allies and friendsR-ill be siEin3 6s 6"= to see -(et(er -e (a8e t(e resol8e to face t(reats and deter t(em= and t(e di"lomatic s0ill in "eacetime to mana3e friends(i"s and alliances (a8in3 com"lex "olitical and economic= as -ell as sec6rit1 dimensions. If t(e ans-ers are 1es= and o6r alliances remain stron3= t(en -e ma1 mo8e in Asia= as -e did in t(e <6ro"ean Cold %ar= from t(e eC6i8alent toda1 of t(e (air-raisin3 9erlin Crises of t(e 1.#/s and 1.&/s= to some f6t6re eC6i8alents of Mst"oliti0 and Getente= ca""ed off= "er(a"s= b1 3en6ine liberaliEation in C(ina. 96t if 3e flinc,= t(en Asia -ill become a sec6rit1 free-for- all= li0e <6ro"e in t(e first (alf of t(is cent6r1= -it( e8er1 state armin3= none tr6l1 allied= and none able to find t(e -a1 to "eace.
96t -ili
,(e bloc0s -o6ld fall C6ic0est and (ardest in Asia= -(ere "roliferation "ress6res are alread1 b6ildin3 more C6ic0l1 t(an an1-(ere else in t(e -orld. If a n6clear brea0o6t ta0es "lace in Asia= t(en t(e international arms control a3reements t(at (a8e been "ainsta0in3l1 ne3otiated o8er t(e "ast / 1ears -ill cr6mble. ;oreo8er= t(e Anited States co6ld find itself embroiled in its fo6rt( -ar on t(e Asian continent in six decades-a costl1 reb60e to t(ose -(o see0 t(e safet1 of 7ortress America b1 (idin3 be(ind national missile defenses. Consider -(at is alread1 (a""enin3? $ort( 'orea contin6es to "la1 36essin3 3ames -it( its n6clear and missile "ro3rams@ So6t( 'orea -ants its o-n missiles to matc( P1on31an3Bs@ India and Pa0istan s(oot across
borders -(ile r6nnin3 a slo--motion n6clear arms race@ C(ina moderniEes its n6clear arsenal amid tensions -it( ,ai-an and t(e Anited States@ !a"anBs 8ice defense minister is forced to resi3n after extollin3 t(e benefits of n6clear
-ea"ons@ and R6ssia---(ose 7ar <ast n6clear de"lo1ments alone ma0e it t(e lar3est Asian n6clear "o-er--str633les to maintain territorial co(erence. 7i8e of t(ese states (a8e n6clear -ea"ons@ t(e ot(ers are ca"able of constr6ctin3 t(em. 5i0e ne6trons firin3 from a
s"lit atom= one nationBs actions can tri33er reactions t(ro63(o6t t(e re3ion= -(ic( in t6rn= stim6late additional actions. ,(ese nations form an interloc0in3 Asian n6clear reaction c(ain t(at 8ibrates dan3ero6sl1 -it( eac( ne- de8elo"ment.
13
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Readiness Good/Bad
If t(e freC6enc1 and intensit1 of t(is reaction c1cle increase= critical decisions ta0en b1 an1 one of t(ese 3o8ernments co6ld cascade into t(e second 3reat -a8e of n6clear--ea"on "roliferation= brin3in3 re3ional and 3lobal economic and "olitical instabilit1 and= "er(a"s= t(e first combat 6se of a n6clear -ea"on since 1. #.
He2e Scenario (1 of 2)
A. 1eadiness is the bac$bone of U.S. leadership!deters co nterbalancing.
&,alil8ad !9
(Salma1-= S"rin3= %as(in3ton H6arterl1= I5osin3 t(e ;omentQ ,(e Anited States and t(e %orld After t(e Cold %arJ= Kol. 1+= L 2= 5exis@ !acob)
main deterrent to t(e rise of anot(er 3lobal ri8al is t(e militar1 "o-er of t(e Anited States= an inadeC6ate le8el of A.S. militar1 ca"abilit1 co6ld facilitate s6c( an e8ent. ,(is ca"abilit1 s(o6ld be meas6red not onl1 in terms of t(e stren3t( of ot(er co6ntries= b6t also in terms of t(e A.S. a4ili ' o carr' o/ t(e strate31 o6tlined (ere. A.S. tradition ma0es t(e "ros"ect of defense c6ts belo- t(is le8el a serio6s "ossibilit1? (istoricall1= t(e Anited States (as made t(is error on se8eral occasions b1 do-nsiEin3 excessi8el1. It faces t(e same dan3er a3ain for t(e lon3er term. ,(e iss6e is not onl1 -(at le8els of reso6rces are s"ent on defense b6t also on -(at= for -(at= and (o- t(e1 are s"ent. 7or t(e Anited States to maintain its militar1 "reeminence= in addition to meetin3 "ossible maNor re3ional contin3encies (;RCs)= it needs s"ecific ca"abilit1 in t(ree areas.
7irst= besides maintainin3 a rob6st n6clear deterrent ca"abilit1 beca6se of concerns -it( R6ssian and C(inese existin3 or "otential n6clear "ost6res= t(e Anited States needs to acC6ire increased ca"abilit1 to deter= "re8ent= and defend a3ainst t(e 6se of biolo3ical= c(emical= and n6clear -ea"ons in maNor conflicts in critical re3ions. ,(e re3ional deterrence reC6irements mi3(t -ell be different from t(ose -it( re3ard to t(e So8iet Anion d6rin3 t(e Cold %ar beca6se of t(e c(aracter and moti8ations of different re3ional "o-ers. A.S. abilit1 to "re8ent and defend a3ainst 6se is c6rrentl1 8er1 limited. In t(e near term= t(erefore= to deter 6se of %;G a3ainst its forces and allies= t(e Anited States ma1 (a8e to t(reaten n6clear retaliation.,o co6nter t(e s"read of %;G and t(eir means of deli8er1 (es"eciall1 ballistic and cr6ise missiles)= t(e Anited States s(o6ld see0 to de8elo" t(e ca"abilit1 to "rom"tl1 locate and destro1 e8en -ell-"rotected facilities related to biolo3ical= c(emical= and n6clear -ea"ons and t(eir deli8er1 s1stems. <C6all1 im"ortant -ill be t(e abilit1 to defend a3ainst t(e 6se of t(ese -ea"ons= incl6din3 bot( acti8e and "assi8e defense. Ge"lo1in3 rob6st= m6ltila1ered ballistic missile defenses is 8ital for "rotectin3 A.S. for-ardde"lo1ed forces and extendin3 "rotection to A.S. allies= t(6s 3ainin3 t(eir "artici"ation and coo"eration in defeatin3 a33ression in critical re3ions.
A 3lobal ri8al to t(e Anited States co6ld emer3e for se8eral reasons. 9eca6se t(e
im"ro8ed ca"abilit1 for decisi8e im"act in lesser re3ional crises (5RCs) -- internal conflicts= small -ars= (6manitarian relief= "eace0ee"in3 or "eacema0in3 o"erations= "6niti8e stri0es= restoration of ci8il order= e8ac6ation of noncombatant Americans= safe36ardin3 of sec6rit1 Eones= and monitorin3 and enforcement of sanctions. Gi8en t(e end of t(e Cold %ar= t(e Anited States can be more selecti8e in
decidin3 -(en to become in8ol8ed militaril1. It (as not been selecti8e eno63( d6rin3 t(e "ast t(ree 1ears. Gettin3 in8ol8ed in 5RCs can erode A.S. ca"abilities for dealin3 -it( bi33er and more im"ortant conflicts. $e8ert(eless = some crises ma1 occ6r in areas of 8ital im"ortance to t(e Anited States -- e.3.= in ;exico= C6ba= So6t( Africa= or Sa6di Arabia -- and ot(ers
mi3(t so c(allen3e American 8al6es as to "rod6ce A.S. militar1 in8ol8ement. ,(e Anited States mi3(t also consider "artici"atin3 -it( allies in some 5RCs beca6se of a desire eit(er to extend t(e Eone of "eace or to "re8ent c(aos from s"readin3 to a critical re3ion and t(ereb1 t(reatenin3 t(e sec6rit1 of members of t(e Eone of "eace.
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Readiness Good/Bad
itself= b6t beca6se a -orld in -(ic( t(e Anited States exercises leaders(i" -o6ld (a8e tremendo6s ad8anta3es. 7irst= t(e 3lobal en8ironment -o6ld be more o"en and more rece"ti8e to American 8al6es -- democrac1= free mar0ets= and t(e r6le of la-. Second= s6c( a -orld -o6ld (a8e a better c(ance of dealin3 coo"erati8el1 -it( t(e -orldBs maNor "roblems= s6c( as n6clear "roliferation= t(reats of re3ional (e3emon1 b1 rene3ade states= and lo--le8el conflicts. 7inall1= A.S. leaders(i" -o6ld (el" "recl6de t(e rise of anot(er (ostile 3lobal ri8al= enablin3 t(e Anited States and t(e -orld to a8oid anot(er 3lobal cold or (ot -ar and all t(e attendant dan3ers= incl6din3 a 3lobal n6clear exc(an3e. A.S. leaders(i" -o6ld t(erefore be more cond6ci8e to 3lobal stabilit1 t(an a bi"olar or a
He2e Scenario (2 of 2)
'. "ndependent of the strength of U.S. hegemony c#b NW 0 e2tinction
)'e !1
(!ose"(-= Gean of 'enned1 Sc(ool of Go8. > 2ar8ard= Bound to $ead= P. 1*)
Perce"tions of c(an3e in t(e relati8e "o-er of nations are of critical im"ortance to 6nderstandin3 t(e relations(i" bet-een decline and -ar. Mne of t(e oldest 3eneraliEations abo6t international "olitics attrib6tes t(e onset of maNor -ars to s(ifts in "o-er amon3 t(e leadin3 nations. ,(6s ,(6c1dides acco6nted for t(e onset of t(e
Pelo"onnesian %ar -(ic( destro1ed t(e "o-er of ancient At(ens. ,(e (istor1 of t(e interstate s1stem since 1#// is "6nct6ated b1 se8ere -ars in -(ic( one co6ntr1 str633led to s6r"ass anot(er as t(e leadin3 state. If= as Robert Gil"in ar36es= O international "olitics (as not c(an3ed f6ndamentall1 o8er t(e millennia=O t(e im"lications for t(e f6t6re are blea0 . # And if
fears abo6t s(iftin3 "o-er "reci"itate a maNor -ar in a -orld -it( #/=/// n6clear -ea"ons= (istor1 as -e 0no- it ma1 end.
1#
Caldebate.com
Readiness Good/Bad
Caldebate.com
Readiness Good/Bad
to defend freedom. M6r forces -ill be stron3 eno63( to diss6ade "otential ad8ersaries from "6rs6in3 a militar1 b6ild-6" in (o"es of s6r"assin3= or eC6alin3= t(e "o-er of t(e Anited States.
1*
Caldebate.com
Readiness Good/Bad
)& Scenario
A. 1eadiness $ deter North 3orean attac$
;a$or e 0"
(5eon !.-= General A.$. Command= A"ril 2.= 7ederal Goc6ment Clearin3 2o6se Con3ressional ,estimon1= Senate A""ro"riations Committee? S6bcommittee on ;ilitar1 Constr6ction= 5exis@ !acob) Combined 7orces Command ens6res t(e sec6rit1 of t(e "eo"le of t(e Re"6blic of 'orea. Combined 7orces Command "ro8ides t(e militar1 force t(at deters external a33ression and stands read1 to defeat an1 external "ro8ocation a3ainst t(e Re"6blic of 'orea. Combined 7orces Command= com"osed of air= 3ro6nd= na8al= marine= and s"ecial o"erations com"onent= cond6cts combined trainin3 exercises and readiness ins"ections to maintain t(e -arfi3(tin3 readiness t(at is essential to deterrence. ,(e Combined 7orces Command (eadC6arters is a f6ll1 inte3rated staff= manned b1 Re"6blic of 'orea and Anited States militar1 officers. ,(is t(oro63(l1 inte3rated (eadC6arters coordinates t(e o"erations t(at deter external a33ression. In 2//2= Combined 7orces Command assisted -it( t(e s6ccessf6l Anited $ations Command sal8a3e o"eration in t(e %est Sea and militar1 sec6rit1 s6""ort to t(e %orld C6" and Asian Games.
If t(ere is one "lace toda1 -(ere t(e m6c(-dreaded ,(ird %orld %ar co6ld easil1 er6"t and "robabl1 red/ce ear , o a ,/2e s-o/lderin2 cinder it is t(e 'orean Penins6la in 7ar <ast Asia. <8er since t(e end of t(e sa8a3e t(ree-1ear 'orean -ar in t(e earl1 1.#/s= militar1 tension bet-een t(e (ardline comm6nist nort( and t(e American bac0ed So6t( 'orea (as remained dan3ero6sl1 (i3(. In fact t(e 'oreas are tec(nicall1 still at -ar.
A forei3n 8isitor to eit(er P1on31on3 in t(e $ort( or Seo6l in So6t( 'orea -ill C6ic0l1 notice t(at t(e di8ided co6ntr1 is al-a1s on maxim6m alert for an1 e8ent6alit1. $ort( 'orea or t(e Gemocratic Peo"leBs Re"6blic of 'orea (GPR') (as ne8er for3i8en t(e AS for comin3 to t(e aid of So6t( 'orea d6rin3 t(e 'orean -ar. S(e still re3ards t(e AS as an occ6"ation force in So6t( 'orea and -(oll1 to blame for t(e non-re6nification of t(e co6ntr1. $ort( 'orean media constantl1 c(6rns o6t a tirade of attac0s on Oim"erialistO America and its Or6nnin3 do3O So6t( 'orea.
1+
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Readiness Good/Bad
,(e GPR' is one of t(e most secreti8e co6ntries in t(e -orld -(ere a 8isitor is 3i8en t(e im"ression t(at t(e "eo"leBs (atred for t(e AS is absol6te -(ile t(e lo8e for t(eir 3o8ernment is total. %(et(er t(is is reall1 so= it is extremel1 diffic6lt to concl6de. In t(e GPR'= a 8isitor is ne8er 3i8en a c(ance to s"ea0 to ordinar1 'oreans abo6t t(e "olitics of t(eir co6ntr1. $o 8isitor mo8es aro6nd alone -it(o6t 3o8ernment escort. ,(e American 3o8ernment ar36es t(at its "resence in So6t( 'orea -as beca6se of t(e constant dan3er of an in8asion from t(e nort(. America (as 8ast economic interests in So6t( 'orea. S(e "oints o6t t(at t(e nort( (as d63 n6mero6s t6nnels alon3 t(e demilitarised Eone as "art of t(e in8asion "lans. S(e also acc6ses t(e nort( of 8iolatin3 So6t( 'orean territorial -aters. <arl1 t(is 1ear= a small $ort( 'orean s6bmarine -as ca63(t in So6t( 'orean -aters after 3ettin3 entan3led in fis(in3 nets. 9ot( t(e Americans and So6t( 'oreans claim t(e s6bmarine -as on a militar1 s"1in3 mission. 2o-e8er= t(e intension of t(e alle3ed intr6sion -ill "robabl1 ne8er be 0no-n beca6se t(e craftBs cre- -ere all fo6nd -it( fatal 36ns(ot -o6nds to t(eir (eads in -(at (as been described as s6icide "act to (ide t(e tr6t( of t(e mission. ,(e AS
mistr6st of t(e nort(Bs intentions is so dee" t(at it is no secret t(at toda1 %as(in3ton (as t(e lar3est concentration of soldiers and -ea"onr1 of all descri"tions in so6t( 'orea t(an an1-(ere else in t(e %orld=
a"art from America itself. Some of t(e armada t(at -as de"lo1ed in t(e recent bombin3 of IraC and in M"eration Gesert Storm a3ainst t(e same co6ntr1 follo-in3 its in8asion of '6-ait -as from t(e fleet "ermanentl1 stationed on t(e 'orean Penins6la. It is tr6e too t(at at
t(e moment t(e $ort(4So6t( 'orean border is t(e most fortified in t(e -orld.
)&- Readiness 6
1eadiness $ deter war with N3
<ar2o 09
(,(omas 9.-= Commander A.S. Pacific Command= A"ril 1= Senate Armed Ser8ices Committee 2earin3= IGefense A6t(oriEation ReC6est for t(e 7iscal Fear T/#J= 5exis@ !acob) I (a8e t(e (onor to re"resent t(o6sands of men and -omen -- acti8e= 36ard= reser8e= and ci8ilians= and of co6rse= t(eir famil1 members -- for "ro8idin3 s6"erior ser8ice to t(e nation in t(e Asia and Pacific Re3ion and= indeed= aro6nd t(e -orld. ,(eir (i3( readiness and effecti8eness can be directl1 attrib6ted to t(e 3enero6s s6""ort to t(is esteemed bod1 and of t(e American "eo"le as a -(ole. ,oda1 IBd li0e to s6r8e1 o6r "rimar1 sec6rit1 concerns in t(e re3ion= and t(en I loo0 for-ard to ans-erin3 1o6r C6estions. And I a""reciate 1o6 "lacin3 m1 statement into t(e record= ;r. C(airman. Gramatic e8ents in So6t(-est Asia= for -(ic( t(e Pacific Command contin6es to be a "rimar1 force "ro8ider= (a8e not ecli"sed t(e im"ortance of t(e Asian-Pacific t(reats to 3lobal sec6rit1= nor o6r attention to t(em. 7irst and foremost= -e are 0eenl1 foc6sed on t(e 'orean Penins6la. General 5aPorte and I caref6ll1 monitor indications of $ort( 'orean militar1 readiness. And fran0l1= I donBt t(in0 t(at -ar is an1 more li0el1 toda1 t(an it -as 1+ mont(s or 2 mont(s a3o= b6t clearl1 t(e sta0es -o6ld be 8er1 (i3( if -ar occ6rred on t(e "enins6la. ;illions of So6t( 'oreans li8e -it(in ran3e of $ort( 'oreaBs artiller1. And t(e sta0es= of co6rse= -o6ld be e8en (i3(er if $ort( 'orea contin6es to "6rs6e a n6clear ca"abilit1. 96t $ort( 'oreaBs abilit1 to t(reaten "eace is not limited to t(e "enins6la. ,(e -orldBs lar3est "roliferator of ballistic missiles alread1 (as demonstrated t(e abilit1 to deli8er missile "a1loads be1ond e8en !a"an. And t(e reac( of its illicit acti8ities= s6c( as narcotics= extends as far as A6stralia= as -as demonstrated N6st last s6mmer. $o-= of co6rse= $ort( 'oreaBs (i3(l1 enric(ed 6rani6m "ro3ram= alon3 -it( its "l6toni6m re"rocessin3 "ro3ram= raise t(e s"ecter of n6clear -ea"ons eit(er in armed conflict or "roliferated into t(e (ands of terrorist 3ro6"s= "er(a"s o6r bi33est fear= and one t(at clearl1 -o6ld t(reaten all nations. President 96s( re"eatedl1 (as stated o6r commitment to a "eacef6l resol6tion of t(e $ort( 'orean n6clear iss6e. A di"lomatic initiati8e is mo8in3 for-ard to t(e six-"art1 tal0s= and o6r role at t(e Pacific Command (as been to ens6re t(at di"lomac1 is bac0ed b1 a 8iable militar1 ca"abilit1. And -e contin6e to do N6st t(at= "ost6rin3 o6r forces not to "ro8o0e b6t to deter conflict. 1.
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Readiness Good/Bad
,(e res6lt? ,oda1= t(e Anited States (as too fe- forces to fi3(t t-o nearl1 sim6ltaneo6s re3ional conflicts= and too little mone1 to "a1 for t(e inadeC6ate forces. ,(ere is= (o-e8er= more to t(e (istorical "attern t(an ne3lect and t6rnin3 in-ard. ,(e lac0 of 8i3ilance abroad after -innin3 a -ar al-a1s (as enco6ra3ed ne- a33ression for -(ic( t(e Anited States -as 6n"re"ared. It is safe to "redict t(at toda1Bs A3e of C(aos -ill be no exce"tion. Greed= "assion= and foll1 are imm6table "arts of (6man c(aracter@ and some-(ere= someda1= a ne- dictator= (a8in3 obser8ed t(e lac0 of >?S? -ili ar' $re$aredness= -ill embar0 6"on some mad 8ent6re t(at t(reatens AmericaBs 8ital interests or its allies. Sooner or later= t(ere -ill be anot(er maNor conflict -- or m6lti"le conflicts -- t(at -ill dra- in t(e Anited States. In fact= t(e forces of conflict alread1 are b6ildin3 6" steadil1 aro6nd t(e -orld -- 3reat "o-er com"etition= 6nbridled nationalism= et(nic strife= reli3io6s fanaticism= and (6n3er for ne-l1 disco8ered or diminis(in3 nat6ral reso6rces. %(en t(e ine8itable crisis -- -(et(er a sin3le e8ent or a s6ccession of con8er3in3 re3ional crises -er6"ts a3ain in t(e -orld= t(e (istoric "attern s(o-s t(e American "eo"le -ill rall1 and do -(at is needed. ,oda1Bs a"at(1 and lac0 of interest in national sec6rit1 -ill e8a"orate o8erni3(t. 96t t(e American "eo"le rel1 on t(eir elected leaders to maintain t(e tools t(e1 -ill need to do t(e Nob. If t(e1 find t(e ne3lected militar1 instr6ment r6st1 and brittle in t(eir (ands= t(e1 -ill (old acco6ntable t(ose -(o let o6r defenses decline. ,(e blood of t(eir sons= brot(ers=
c6t defense e8en more to "a1 for "romised tax c6ts.
2/
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Readiness Good/Bad
(6sbands= and fat(ers -(o die 6nnecessaril1 -ill demand it. ,(is is -(ere t(e stron3-defense comm6nit1 can -- and m6st -- "la1 a 8ital role. If ex"erts from t(is comm6nit1 cannot sto" or re8erse t(e (istoric "attern of "ost-ar ne3lect= at least t(e1 can concentrate t(eir efforts on "reser8in3 a militar1 t(at -ill remain relati8el1 effecti8e e8en -(ile -earin3 a
b6d3et straitNac0et. U e8idence contin6es U Polic1ma0ers on Ca"itol 2ill -(o s6""ort defense m6st learn to t(in0 more li0e militar1 strate3ists. ,(e misN6d3ments= missed o""ort6nities= and follies of t(e Clinton AdministrationBs forei3n and defense "olicies o8er t(e "ast fo6r 1ears (a8e serio6sl1 -ea0ened A.S. infl6ence and credibilit1 abroad. Anless Con3ress and its concerned allies can become more effecti8e= t(e Clinton fail6res -ill lead ine8itabl1 to t(e decline of t(e Anited States as a 3reat "o-er= -it(o6t t(e means or t(e -ill to defend its 8al6es and interests.
7or t(e Anited States= t(e c(oice is eit(er to lead or be led. ,(e first c(oice leads to freedom= sec6rit1= and 3reatness@ t(e second= to -ea0ness and s6bmission. 7or its o-n -ell-bein3= and for t(at of t(e entire -orld= t(e credibilit1 of t(e Anited States as a 3lobal "o-er m6st be restored. %it(o6t t(e credibilit1 t(at comes from a stron3 militar1 force= t(e Anited States -ill be red6ced to ma0in3 em"t1 -arnin3s and im"otent demarc(es in times of crisis. 7orfeitin3 national credibilit1 -- and moral a6t(orit1 -- means "ossibl1 (a8in3 to resort to force -(en credibilit1 and an ima3e of steadfast resol8e co6ld (a8e "re8ented conflict. 96t -(en t(at moment of crisis comes= t(e Anited States ma1 find itself -it(o6t a militar1 force able to meet t(e demands of conflict. If t(e Administration cannot or -ill not "ro8ide t(is leaders(i"= t(en Con3ress= -it( t(e acti8e aid of a
defense "olic1 comm6nit1 t(at -ants to ma0e America stron3 a3ain= m6st (old it "6blicl1 and "oliticall1 acco6ntable. ,(en= insofar as t(e Constit6tion and 3ood "6blic "olic1 allo-= t(e1 m6st ste" into t(e leaders(i" 8oid to safe36ard A.S. national sec6rit1.
<x"erts t(ro63(o6t t(e -orld ex"ect 3ro-in3 "o"6lation "ress6res and increasin3 en8ironmental stress to de8elo" o8er t(e comin3 decades into intense= far-reac(in3 social 6nrest and re3ional conflict. <conomic de8elo"ment is t(e sol6tion= (o-e8er slo- and 6ncertain it ma1 be in comin3. 96t t(e -orld also needs effecti8e re3ional conflict-"re8ention "roced6res. 5eft on its o-n= re3ional 8iolence can lead to confrontation and e8en -ar bet-een t(e 3reat "o-ers= incl6din3 t(e Anited States= as mi3(t occ6r= for exam"le= in t(e e8ent of conflict bet-een A0raine and R6ssia or bet-een C(ina and its nei3(bors. In t(e final anal1sis= 6nc(ec0ed re3ional 8iolence and t(e fear of f6rt(er 8iolence -ill lead more states to de8elo" n6clear -ea"ons. In "ast decades= t(is "rocess occ6rred in Israel= So6t( Africa= India= Pa0istan= IraC= and "res6mabl1= in $ort( 'orea. A -orld -it( 2/ or 3/ n6clear -ea"on states -o6ld not onl1 ma0e a more effecti8e 3lobal sec6rit1 s1stem im"ossible= it -o6ld lead t(e "resent n6clear -ea"on states to moderniEe and increase t(eir -ea"ons - and it -o6ld mar0edl1 increase t(e 86lnerabilit1 of t(e Anited States to direct attac0. Instead of s(r633in3 at (6man fallibilit1= acce"tin3 -ar as ine8itable= and= reactin3 after it (a""ens= A.S. "olic1 s(o6ld aim at establis(in3 an international "eace0ee"in3 s1stem t(at can (ead off an increasin3 n6mber of conflicts.
21
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Readiness Good/Bad
;ilitar1 readiness is 8ital beca6se declines in AmericaBs militar1 readiness si2nal to t(e rest of t(e -orld t(at t(e Anited States is not "re"ared to defend its interests. ,(erefore= "otentiall1 (ostile nations -ill be more li0el1 to las( o6t a3ainst American allies and interests= ine8itabl1 leadin3 to A.S. in8ol8ement in combat. A (i3( state of militar1 readiness is more li0el1 to deter "otentiall1 (ostile nations from actin3 a33ressi8el1 in re3ions of 8ital national interest= t(ereb1 "reser8in3 "eace.
22
Caldebate.com
Readiness Good/Bad
G6e to t(e emer3in3 3a" bet-een ca"abilities and strate31 ca6sed b1 t(e on3oin3 -ar a3ainst terrorism and t(e increasin3 need to "resent credible fi3(tin3 forces for t(e ;iddle <ast and 'orea= t(e nationBs national sec6rit1 concerns m6st be "rioritiEed. S"ecificall1= AmericaBs armed forces m6st= at a minim6m= be "re"ared for fo6r missions? 1. 7i3(t t(e immediate -ar on terrorism. G6e to t(e se8erit1 of t(e t(reat and t(e sta0es at ris0= t(e -ar on terrorism m6st be AmericaBs to" "riorit1. As President 96s( (as described n6mero6s times= most recentl1 in (is State of t(e Anion Address=& t(is -ar is m6ltifaceted. ,(e nation m6st (arness its reso6rces to en3a3e t(e terrorists and t(eir state s"onsors financiall1= "oliticall1= di"lomaticall1= and militaril1. ,(is 3lobal mission c6rrentl1 incl6des t(e o"eration in Af3(anistan= resol8in3 t(e IraCi crisis= and smaller de"lo1ments to nations li0e Femen= !ordan= and t(e P(ili""ines. 2. 9e "re"ared to fi3(t -it( little or no -arnin3 in 6nantici"ated "laces. ,(e emer3ence of 3lobal comm6nications= ad8ances in tec(nolo31= and t(e 3lobaliEation of terrorism "ro8ide man1 o""ort6nities for s6r"rise attac0s a3ainst t(e Anited States and its interests. ;aintainin3 t(e abilit1 to fi3(t and -in -ars in di8erse sit6ations and en8ironments can disco6ra3e man1 of AmericaBs enemies from (ostile acts. 3. ;aintain adeC6ate ca"abilit1 to deter a33ression a3ainst AmericaBs allies. America faces end6rin3 t(reats be1ond terrorism= as demonstrated b1 $ort( 'oreaBs n6clear -ea"ons "ro3ram. ,(ere are nations in e8er1 re3ion of t(e -orld t(at t(reaten AmericaBs 8ital interests in t(e near term. Ass6rin3 stabilit1 in t(ose re3ions and "rotectin3 A.S. interests reC6ires t(e abilit1 to defeat an1 nation or 3ro6" t(at t(reatens AmericaBs allies= -(ic( itself "ro8ides effecti8e deterrence a3ainst lar3e-scale a33ression. ,(is s(o6ld incl6de bot( con8entional
forces and ot(er ca"abilities s6c( as an effecti8e ballistic missile defense and reliable n6clear forces. ,(e Administration 23
Caldebate.com
Readiness Good/Bad
s(o6ld ta0e e8er1 ste" to stren3t(en its im"ortant alliances and be read1 to res"ond forcef6ll1 and immediatel1 to a33ression a3ainst AmericaBs allies. . Contrib6te to (omeland defense. ,(e armed ser8ices m6st co6nter t(reats to t(e (omeland as t(e1 e8ol8e abroad and "la1 a secondar1 role as t(at t(reat emer3es -it(in A.S. borders. Alt(o63( t(e Penta3on is not t(e "rimar1 federal a3ent of (omeland sec6rit1= it does (a8e a 8ital role to "la1 and m6st dedicate a "ortion of its reso6rces to t(at mission. ,(e acti8e A.S. militar1 s(o6ld be "rimaril1 res"onsible for defendin3 Americans from a33ression and "re8entin3 attac0s on t(e (omeland. Mnce an attac0 occ6rs= (o-e8er= $ational G6ard 6nits s(o6ld ta0e o8er t(e militar1 acti8ities -(ile ot(er 3o8ernment a3encies and "ri8ate entities s(o6lder t(e rest of t(e b6rden.* ,(e missions necessar1 for t(e militar1 to f6lfill its res"onsibilities incl6de deterrence= intelli3ence 3at(erin3= "reem"ti8e stri0es a3ainst entities "osin3 imminent t(reats= missile defense= and researc( and de8elo"ment of co6ntermeas6res and s1stems to defend a3ainst t(reats to t(e (omeland. Protectin3 t(e militar1 from ex"endin3 its reso6rces on (omeland sec6rit1 "ro3rams t(at are better (andled b1 ot(ers -ill be increasin3l1 im"ortant in f6t6re 1ears. ,(is is "artic6larl1 tr6e as t(e ne- Ge"artment of 2omeland Sec6rit1 comes on-line and acC6ires mandated ca"abilities ("artic6larl1 in researc( and de8elo"ment) t(at -o6ld be red6ndant to existin3 GMG "ro3rams.
7or-ard de"lo1ed combat forces "ro8ide t(is nation -it( s"eed of res"onse to an emer3in3 crisis from forces t(at can be immediatel1 em"lo1ed from -it(in a re3ion. 9efore t(e most recent action in Af3(anistan= $a8al forces (ad "ro8ided t(e same t1"e of timel1 res"onse on +& occasions in t(e last decade alone= incl6din3
11 different combat o"erations. In fact= e8en before t(e e8ents of Se"tember 11t( = t(e last 1/ $a81 carrier battle3ro6"s to de"lo1= a s"an t(at be3an in 1..+= (a8e en3a3ed in combat as "art of M"eration Allied 7orce in So6t(eastern <6ro"e and4or o"erations in t(e ;iddle <ast. Additionall1= in t(at time s"an= na8al forces cond6cted non-combatant e8ac6ation o"erations= cond6cted t(o6sands of boardin3s in s6""ort of A.S. dr63 "olic1 and Anited $ations sanctions= and "artici"ated in n6mero6s (6manitarian assistance o"erations. G6rin3 crisis or conflict= for-ard-de"lo1ed and for-ard-based na8al forces are "ositioned for timel1 res"onse. ,(e $a81-;arine Cor"s team stands read1= at t(e Oti" of t(e s"ear=O to ass6re access and to "roNect Noint and combined "o-er in s6""ort of $ational "olic1. Strate3ic <n8ironment and $a81 ,ransformation ,(e 2//1 H6adrennial Gefense Re8ie- (HGR) sets clear 3oals to ass6re allies and friends t(at t(e Anited States is a reliable sec6rit1 "artner= to diss6ade f6t6re militar1 com"etition from "otential ad8ersaries= to deter t(reats and
coercion a3ainst A.S. interests and decisi8el1 defeat an1 ad8ersaries -(o (a8e not been deterred from attem"tin3 to im"ose t(eir -ill on t(e A.S.= its allies or its friends. ,(e HGR reC6ires t(at -e restore and t(en im"ro8e c6rrent readiness -(ile transformin3 to address t(e circ6mstances of t(e 21 st Cent6r1. ,o s6""ort
t(ese 3oals= o6r so8erei3n na8al forces m6st be able to en(ance deterrence and= s(o6ld t(at fail= ass6re sea-based !oint force access to "roNect offensi8e and defensi8e "o-er as(ore to defeat all ad8ersaries.
$e- c(allen3es= incl6din3 t(e t(reat of c1ber-ar= -ea"ons of mass destr6ction= contin6ed international terrorism and t(e (a8oc -ro63(t b1 failed states= define a most 6n"redictable f6t6re. ,(ese and ot(er emer3in3 t(reats -ill call for ne- deterrence o"tions s"annin3 t(e f6ll ran3e of t(reats facin3 o6r nation.
2
Caldebate.com
Readiness Good/Bad
establis(ed n6clear states= co8ert (olders of n6clear -ea"ons= or ne- see0ers after n6clear de8ices= to t(in0 a3ain is a stable -orld of r6les= "enalties= and re-ards.
Prolif NW
> 2off 02
(Kictor-= Ge"6t1 Girector for t(e Strate31= 7orces= P Reso6rces Gi8ision of t(e Instit6te for Gefense Anal1sis= S6mmer= S6r8i8al= Kol. L2= P. +*-./) In s6m= -ides"read "roliferation is li0el1 to lead to an occasional s(oot-o6t -it( n6clear -ea"ons= and t(at s6c( s(ooto6ts -ill (a8e a s6bstantial "robabilit1 of escalatin3 to t(e maxim6m destr6ction "ossible -it( t(e -ea"ons at (and. Anless n6clear "roliferation is sto""ed= -e are (eaded to-ard a -orld t(at -ill mirror t(e American %ild %est of t(e late 1+//s. %it( most= if not all= nations -earin3 n6clear Bsix-s(ootersB on t(eir (i"s= t(e -orld ma1 e8en be a more "olite "lace t(an it is toda1= b6t e8er1 once in a -(ile -e -ill all 3at(er on a (ill to b6r1 t(e bodies of dead cities or e8en -(ole nations.
2#
Caldebate.com
Readiness Good/Bad
Caldebate.com
Readiness Good/Bad
O7or far too lon3= t(e Anited States (as allo-ed -ea0 states -- s6c( as Af3(anistan= 2aiti and Somalia -- to be on t(e "eri"(er1 of A.S. forei3n "olic1 concerns=O said St6art <iEenstat= anot(er commission co-c(air= -(o ser8ed in to" economic "ositions 6nder Clinton and !imm1 Carter (1.**-+1). OAs a res6lt= -e (a8e (ad to 6ltimatel1 en3a3e in militar1 inter8ention and costl1 Bnation-b6ildin3B acti8ities.O O,(e A.S. needs a fres( strate31 t(at identifies -ea0 states before t(e1 fail= or3anises t(e A.S. 3o8ernment to address t(e c(allen3es and o""ort6nities t(ese -ea0 states "ose= and 6tilises on a s6stained basis t(e entire "ano"l1 of de8elo"ment= di"lomatic= and "olitical tools necessar1 to s6cceed=O (e added. ,(e re"ort said t(ree 3a"s distin36is( tro6bled or -ea0 states from t(ose t(at are sim"l1 "oor. If a state cannot control its o-n territor1 or "rotect its citiEens from internal or external t(reats= it s6ffers a sec6rit1 3a" t(at can easil1 be filled b1 terrorists= criminal 3ro6"s or ins6r3ents.
,(e internationaliEation and br6taliEation of c6rrent and f6t6re terrorism ma0e it clear -e (a8e entered an A3e of S6"er ,errorism Ve.3. biolo3ical= c(emical, radiolo3ical= n6clear and c1ber] -it( its serio6s im"lications concernin3 national= re3ional and 3lobal sec6rit1 concerns. ,-o m1t(s in "artic6lar m6st be deb6n0ed immediatel1 if an effecti8e co6nterterrorism Obest "racticesO strate31 can be de8elo"ed Ve.3.= stren3t(enin3 international coo"erationW.
,(e first ill6sion is t(at terrorism can be 3reatl1 red6ced= if not eliminated com"letel1= "ro8ided t(e root ca6ses of conflicts - "olitical= social and economic - are addressed. ,(e con8entional ill6sion is t(at terrorism m6st be N6stified b1 o""ressed "eo"le see0in3 to ac(ie8e t(eir 3oals and conseC6entl1 t(e ar36ment ad8anced b1 Ofreedom fi3(tersO an1-(ere= O3i8e me libert1 and I -ill 3i8e 1o6 deat(=O s(o6ld be tolerated if not 3lorified. ,(is traditional rationaliEation of OsacredO 8iolence often conceals t(at t(e real "6r"ose of terrorist 3ro6"s is to 3ain "olitical "o-er t(ro63( t(e barrel of t(e 36n= in 8iolation of f6ndamental (6man ri3(ts of t(e noncombatant se3ment of societies. 7or instance= Palestinians reli3io6s mo8ements Ve.3.= 2amas= Islamic !i(adW and sec6lar entities Vs6c( as 7ata(Bs ,anEim and ACsa ;art1r 9ri3adesWW -is( not onl1 to resol8e national 3rie8ances Vs6c( as !e-is( settlements= ri3(t of ret6rn= !er6salemW b6t "rimaril1 to destro1 t(e !e-is( state. Similarl1= Msama bin 5adenBs international net-or0 not onl1 o""oses t(e "resence of American militar1 in t(e Arabian Penins6la and IraC= b6t its stated obNecti8e is to O6nite all ;6slims and establis( a 3o8ernment t(at follo-s t(e r6le of t(e Cali"(s.O
2*
Caldebate.com
Readiness Good/Bad
,(e second m1t( is t(at stron3 action a3ainst terrorist infrastr6ct6re Vleaders= recr6itment= f6ndin3= "ro"a3anda= trainin3= -ea"ons= o"erational command and controlW -ill onl1 increase terrorism. ,(e ar36ment (ere is t(at
la--enforcement efforts and militar1 retaliation ine8itabl1 -ill f6el more br6tal acts of 8iolent re8en3e. Clearl1= if t(is "erce"tion contin6es to "re8ail= "artic6larl1 in democratic societies= t(ere is t(e dan3er it -ill "aral1Ee 3o8ernments and t(ereb1 enco6ra3e f6rt(er terrorist attac0s. In s6m= "ast ex"erience "ro8ides 6sef6l lessons for a realistic f6t6re strate31. ,(e "r6dent a""lication of force (as been demonstrated to be an effecti8e tool for s(ort- and lon3-term deterrence of terrorism. 7or exam"le= IsraelBs tar3eted 0illin3 of ;o(ammed Sider= t(e 2ebron commander of t(e Islamic !i(ad= def6sed a Otic0in3 bomb.O ,(e assassination of Ismail Ab6 S(anab - a to" 2amas leader in t(e GaEa Stri" -(o -as directl1 res"onsible for se8eral s6icide bombin3s incl6din3 t(e latest b6s attac0 in !er6salem - disr6"ted "otential terrorist o"erations. Similarl1= t(e A.S. militar1 o"eration in IraC eliminated Saddam 26sseinBs re3ime as a state s"onsor of terror. ,(6s= it be(oo8es t(ose co6ntries 8ictimiEed b1 terrorism to 6nderstand a cardinal messa3e comm6nicated b1 %inston C(6rc(ill to t(e 2o6se of Commons on ;a1 13= 1. /? OKictor1 at all costs= 8ictor1 in s"ite of terror= 8ictor1 (o-e8er lon3 and (ard t(e road ma1 be? 7or 3i ,o/ Aic or'= t(ere is no s/rAiAal.O
Caldebate.com
Readiness Good/Bad
re3imes are concentrated -(ile t(e benefits are often diff6se= t(e maNor "o-ers no- confront a collecti8e action "roblem -(ose internal lo3ic s(o6ld fa8or a m6ltilateral res"onse.
2.
Caldebate.com
Readiness Good/Bad
%ai3an Scenario (1 of 2)
8ow U.S. military readiness emboldens 'hina! they5ll thin$ they can safely in4ade Taiwan.
+,ris enson 01
(,(omas= Assoc. Prof. of Poli. Sci. > ;I,= International Sec6rit1= IPosin3 Problems %it(o6t Catc(in3 A"? C(inaBs Rise and C(allen3es for A.S. Sec6rit1 Polic1J= Kol. 2#= P. 2/)
C(inese anal1sts sometimes em"(asiEe t(e "olitical 3eo3ra"(1 not onl1 of <ast Asia= b6t also of t(e 3lobe as anot(er ad8anta3e t(at C(ina (as in settlin3 "roblems s6c( as ,ai-an b1 force. ,(e Anited States as t(e sole s6"er"o-er often finds its militar1 assets tied do-n else-(ere. So one strate31 for addressin3 t(e ,ai-an "roblem -o6ld be to -ait 6ntil t(e Anited States is "oliticall1 and militaril1 distracted in anot(er "art of t(e -orld. ,(is= some C(inese anal1sts belie8e= -o6ld red6ce bot( AmericaBs ca"abilit1 and -illin3ness to inter8ene a3ainst C(ina in a meanin3f6l -a1. In t(e earl1 1../s= C(inese militar1 anal1sts reco3niEed t(is -ea0ness -(en t(e1 obser8ed t(at man1 Asia-based assets -ere 6sed to defeat Saddam 26ssein in t(e distant Persian G6lf. In !6ne 2///= t-o ci8ilian anal1sts made a similar ar36ment to me= statin3 t(at t(e Anited States cannot (andle t(e b6rden of t-o sim6ltaneo6s militar1 en3a3ements in se"arate "arts of t(e -orld. 3/ $i6 !6n ar36es t(at if t(e Anited States is in an intense conflict else-(ere and a -ar brea0s o6t across t(e strait= it mi3(t t(en O3i8e 6" on im"lementin3 militar1 inter8ention in ,ai-an.... ,(o63( American "o-er is 3reat= its "o-er (as limits.O 2e describes American Ostrate3ic linesO as Otoo lon3O and its "o-er as OscatteredO (fensan). 31
Caldebate.com
At t(is "oint= none
Readiness Good/Bad
of t(e t(ree "arties - C(ina= ,ai-an and t(e AS - -ants to see -ar brea0 o6t. C(ina is foc6sin3 on t(e de8elo"ment of its econom1= and needs a stable "olitical en8ironment. ,ai-an -o6ld be de8astated b1 an1 o6tbrea0 of (ostilities and t(e AS (as its (ands f6ll militaril1 -it( IraC= Af3(anistan and t(e -ar on terror. 2o-e8er= in t(e absence of dialo36e bet-een 9eiNin3 and ,ai"ei= mis6nderstandin3s can easil1 arise. If (ard-liners in 9eiNin3 belie8e t(e1 can resol8e t(e ,ai-an "roblem -it( a C6ic0 stri0e before t(e AS can inter8ene= t(en t(ere is a real dan3er of miscalc6lation and a maNor -ar t(at nobod1 -ants ma1 er6"t.
%ai3an Scenario (2 of 2)
The impact is n clear Armageddon.
S rai %i-es 00
(!6ne 2#= IRe3ional 7allo6t? $o one 3ains in -ar o8er ,ai-anJ= 5exis@ !acob) ,2< GMM;SGAF SC<$ARIM ,2< (i3(-intensit1 scenario "ost6lates a
cross-strait -ar escalatin3 into a f6ll-scale -ar bet-een t(e AS and C(ina. If %as(in3ton -ere to concl6de t(at s"littin3 C(ina -o6ld better ser8e its national interests= t(en a f6ll-scale -ar becomes 6na8oidable. Conflict on s6c( a scale -o6ld embroil ot(er co6ntries far and near and -- (orror of (orrors -- raise t(e "ossibilit1 of a n/clear 3ar.
9eiNin3 (as alread1 told t(e AS and !a"an "ri8atel1 t(at it considers an1 co6ntr1 "ro8idin3 bases and lo3istics s6""ort to an1 AS forces attac0in3 C(ina as belli3erent "arties o"en to its retaliation. In t(e re3ion= t(is means So6t( 'orea= !a"an= t(e P(ili""ines and= to a lesser extent= Sin3a"ore. If C(ina -ere to retaliate= east Asia -ill be set on fire. And t(e confla3ration ma1 not end t(ere as o""ort6nistic "o-ers else-(ere ma1 tr1 to o8ert6rn t(e existin3 -orld order. %it( t(e AS distracted= R6ssia ma1 see0 to redefine <6ro"eBs "olitical landsca"e. ,(e balance of "o-er in t(e ;iddle <ast ma1 be similarl1 6"set b1 t(e li0es of IraC. In so6t( Asia= (ostilities bet-een India and Pa0istan= eac( armed -it( its o-n n6clear arsenal= co6ld
Caldebate.com
Readiness Good/Bad
In (is boo0 ,(e 'orean %ar= a "ersonal acco6nt of t(e militar1 and "olitical as"ects of t(e conflict and its im"lications on f6t6re AS forei3n "olic1= Gen Rid3e-a1 said t(at AS -as confronted -it( t-o c(oices in 'orea -- tr6ce or a broadened -ar= -(ic( co6ld (a8e led to t(e 6se of n6clear -ea"ons.
If t(e AS (ad to resort to n6clear -ea"onr1 to defeat C(ina lon3 before t(e latter acC6ired a similar ca"abilit1= t(ere is little (o"e of -innin3 a -ar a3ainst C(ina #/ 1ears later= s(ort of 6sin3 n6clear -ea"ons. ,(e AS estimates t(at C(ina "ossesses abo6t 2/ n6clear -ar(eads t(at can destro1 maNor American cities. 9eiNin3 also seems "re"ared to 3o for t(e n6clear o"tion. A C(inese militar1 officer disclosed recentl1 t(at 9eiNin3 -as considerin3 a re8ie- of its Onon first 6seO "rinci"le re3ardin3 n6clear -ea"ons.
;aNor-General Pan S(an3Cian3= "resident of t(e militar1-f6nded Instit6te for Strate3ic St6dies= told a 3at(erin3 at t(e %oodro- %ilson International Centre for Sc(olars in %as(in3ton t(at alt(o63( t(e 3o8ernment still abided b1 t(at "rinci"le=
t(ere -ere stron3 "ress6res from t(e militar1 to dro" it. 2e said militar1 leaders considered t(e 6se of n6clear -ea"ons mandator1 if t(e co6ntr1 ris0ed dismemberment as a res6lt of forei3n inter8ention. Gen Rid3e-a1 said t(at s(o6ld t(at come to "ass= -e -o6ld see t(e destr6ction of ci8iliEation. ,(ere -o6ld be no 8ictors in s6c( a -ar. %(ile t(e "ros"ect of a n/clear Ar-a2eddon o8er ,ai-an mi3(t seem inconcei8able= it cannot be r6led o6t entirel1= for C(ina "6ts so8erei3nt1 abo8e e8er1t(in3 else.
de"lo1ment of t-o A.S. carriers -as a Ostron3 militar1 si3nalO of A.S. readiness to inter8ene in a "ossible -ar o8er ,ai-an. n#+ ;oreo8er= t(e carrier de"lo1ment firml1 co6"led t(e A.S. commitment to defend ,ai-an -it( t(e credibilit1 of its sec6rit1 commitments to its allies in <ast Asia. Since t(en= C(inese leaders (a8e ass6med t(at a -ar -it( ,ai-an means a -ar -it( t(e Anited States. As one obser8er (as noted= O%(at man1= man1 "eo"le realiEe is t(at t(e effecti8eness of VA.S.W deterrence . . . m6st mar0edl1 exceed t(at of 1..&= so t(at t(e li0eli(ood of A.S. militar1 inter8ention is e8en more notable= -it( a li0el1 corres"ondin3 escalation in t(e deterrence d1namics.O n#. Anot(er anal1st (as -arned t(at t(e "ossibilit1 of A.S. inter8ention means t(at an1 C(inese action co6ld enco6nter O6nex"ectedl1 serio6s conseC6ences.On&/
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Readiness Good/Bad
A.S. Pacific Command Commander nominee Adm. %illiam 7allon said ,6esda1 t(e Anited States m6st closel1 -atc( C(inaBs BB6n"recedentedBB 3ro-t( in militar1 s"endin3 and maintain a BBcredibleBB deterrence a3ainst $ort( 'orea to facilitate t(e six-"art1 n6clear tal0s.
In (is Senate confirmation (earin3= 7allon said t(e "lanned A.S. militar1 3lobal reali3nment -ill not affect t(e ca"abilities to defend So6t( 'orea and !a"an and to deal -it( a "ossible crisis in t(e ,ai-an Strait. BBAlt(o63( t(e economic relations(i" bet-een t(e Anited States and C(ina is ex"andin3= -e m6st 3ain 3reater insi3(t into C(inaBs 3ro-t( in militar1 s"endin3= its intentions to-ard ,ai-an= and its re3ional strate31 in Asia and t(e Pacific=BB 7allon said in (is "re"ared res"onse to C6estions 3i8en in ad8ance b1 t(e Senate Arms Ser8ices Committee.
BBIt is in t(e A.S. interest to "re8ent miscalc6lation and to maintain a stead1 si3nal of deterrence -it( read1= credible forces=BB (e said= addin3 t(at %as(in3ton BBo""oses an1 attem"t b1 eit(er side to 6nilaterall1 c(an3e t(e stat6s
C6o.BB
-arfare= ballistic and anti-s(i" cr6ise missiles= ad8anced fi3(ters and s6bmarines= co6nters"ace s1stem and air defense.O ,(ere is reason to fear t(at t(e C(inese belie8e some s6c( ca"abilities co6ld be s6ccessf6ll1 em"lo1ed= "ossibl1 in t(e relati8el1 near-term= -it( little -arnin3 -(ile t(e A.S. is tied do-n else-(ere to attac0 ,ai-an and assert C(inese (e3emon1 in <ast Asia.
Caldebate.com
Readiness Good/Bad
%erroris- Scenario (1 of 2)
1eadiness $ W*T! only way to deal with failed states
*es $,al 00
(Ga8id-= A636st #= Scri""s 2o-ard $e-s Ser8ice= I;ilitar1 "romotes A.S. -illJ= 5exis@ !acob) O<8er1 nation no- 0no-s t(at -e cannot acce"t - and -e -ill not acce"t - states t(at (arbor= finance= train or eC6i" t(e a3ents of terror=O 96s( said in a s"eec( on terrorism. 7or t(at reason= t(e Penta3on is b6s1 tr1in3 to ex"and t(e -ili ar''s a4ili ' o reac, an1 re3ion of t(e -orld C6ic0l1. 7rom t(e start of t(e 96s( administration= Gefense Secretar1 Gonald R6msfeld (as been "6s(in3 t(e sometimes rel6ctant armed ser8ices to foc6s on C6ic0-res"onse battlefield strate3ies. $o-= -it( t(e s6ccessf6l Af3(anistan and IraCi
OS"eed is a necessar1 C6alit1 of o6r militar1 ca"abilities= 3i8en t(e t1"es of c(allen3es -e ma1 face=O Ge"6t1 Gefense Secretar1 Pa6l %olfo-itE told Con3ress recentl1. 3
Caldebate.com
Readiness Good/Bad
9arnett= t(e $a8al %ar Colle3e researc(er= sa1s t(is ne- a""roac( is needed beca6se t(e Anited StatesB "rimar1 sec6rit1 t(reat toda1 comes from doEens of failed or failin3 states t(at can ser8e as breedin3 3ro6nds for terrorism.
9arnett describes an arc across t(e middle of t(e "lanet t(at incl6des "arts of So6t( America= all of Africa= t(e ;iddle <ast= and "ortions of Central and So6t(east Asia= all of -(ic( (e sa1s demand t(e attention of t(e A.S. militar1. %(1Q 9eca6se American troo"s are t(e onl1 ones t(at can do it= (e sa1s. OS(o- me t(e "laces -(ere t(ere is "lent1 of stabilit1=O (e told a %as(in3ton a6dience earlier t(is 1ear= Oand IBll s(o- 1o6 lon3-term sec6rit1 relations(i"s bet-een t(e Anited States and t(at "art of t(e -orld.O
%erroris- Scenario (2 of 2)
5i0e-ise= Israel and its citiEens= des"ite t(e colla"se of t(e Mslo A3reements of 1..3 and n6mero6s acts of terrorism tri33ered b1 t(e second intifada t(at be3an almost t(ree 1ears a3o= are still Os(oc0edO b1 eac( s6icide attac0 at a time of intensi8e di"lomatic efforts to re8i8e t(e morib6nd "eace "rocess t(ro63( t(e no- re8o0ed cease-fire arran3ements V(6dnaW. %(1 are t(e Anited States and Israel= as -ell as scores of ot(er co6ntries affected b1 t(e 6ni8ersal ni3(tmare of modern terrorism s6r"rised b1 ne- terrorist Os6r"risesOQ ,(ere are man1 reasons= incl6din3 mis6nderstandin3 of t(e manifold s"ecific factors t(at contrib6te to terrorismBs ex"ansion= s6c( as lac0 of a 6ni8ersal definition of terrorism= t(e reli3ioniEation of "olitics= do6ble standards of moralit1= -ea0 "6nis(ment of terrorists= and t(e ex"loitation of t(e media b1 terrorist "ro"a3anda and "s1c(olo3ical -arfare. Anli0e t(eir (istorical co6nter"arts= contem"orar1 terrorists (a8e introd6ced a ne- scale of 8iolence in terms of con8entional and 6ncon8entional t(reats and im"act.
,(e internationaliEation and br6taliEation of c6rrent and f6t6re terrorism ma0e it clear -e (a8e entered an A3e of S6"er ,errorism Ve.3. biolo3ical= c(emical, radiolo3ical= n6clear and c1ber] -it( its serio6s im"lications concernin3 national= re3ional and 3lobal sec6rit1 concerns. ,-o m1t(s in "artic6lar m6st be deb6n0ed immediatel1 if an effecti8e co6nterterrorism Obest "racticesO strate31 can be de8elo"ed Ve.3.= stren3t(enin3 international coo"erationW.
,(e first ill6sion is t(at terrorism can be 3reatl1 red6ced= if not eliminated com"letel1= "ro8ided t(e root ca6ses of conflicts - "olitical= social and economic - are addressed. ,(e con8entional ill6sion is t(at terrorism m6st be N6stified b1 o""ressed "eo"le see0in3 to ac(ie8e t(eir 3oals and conseC6entl1 t(e ar36ment ad8anced b1 Ofreedom fi3(tersO an1-(ere= O3i8e me libert1 and I -ill 3i8e 1o6 deat(=O s(o6ld be tolerated if not 3lorified. ,(is traditional rationaliEation of OsacredO 8iolence often conceals t(at t(e real "6r"ose of terrorist 3ro6"s is to 3ain "olitical "o-er t(ro63( t(e barrel of t(e 36n= in 8iolation of f6ndamental (6man ri3(ts of t(e noncombatant se3ment of societies. 7or instance= Palestinians reli3io6s mo8ements Ve.3.= 2amas= Islamic !i(adW and sec6lar entities Vs6c( as 7ata(Bs ,anEim and ACsa ;art1r 9ri3adesWW -is( not onl1 to resol8e national 3rie8ances Vs6c( as !e-is( settlements= ri3(t of ret6rn= !er6salemW b6t "rimaril1 to destro1 t(e !e-is( state. Similarl1= Msama bin 5adenBs international net-or0 not onl1 o""oses t(e "resence of American militar1 in t(e Arabian Penins6la and IraC= b6t its stated obNecti8e is to O6nite all ;6slims and establis( a 3o8ernment t(at follo-s t(e r6le of t(e Cali"(s.O 3#
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Readiness Good/Bad
,(e second m1t( is t(at stron3 action a3ainst terrorist infrastr6ct6re Vleaders= recr6itment= f6ndin3= "ro"a3anda= trainin3= -ea"ons= o"erational command and controlW -ill onl1 increase terrorism. ,(e ar36ment (ere is t(at
la--enforcement efforts and militar1 retaliation ine8itabl1 -ill f6el more br6tal acts of 8iolent re8en3e. Clearl1= if t(is "erce"tion contin6es to "re8ail= "artic6larl1 in democratic societies= t(ere is t(e dan3er it -ill "aral1Ee 3o8ernments and t(ereb1 enco6ra3e f6rt(er terrorist attac0s. In s6m= "ast ex"erience "ro8ides 6sef6l lessons for a realistic f6t6re strate31. ,(e "r6dent a""lication of force (as been demonstrated to be an effecti8e tool for s(ort- and lon3-term deterrence of terrorism. 7or exam"le= IsraelBs tar3eted 0illin3 of ;o(ammed Sider= t(e 2ebron commander of t(e Islamic !i(ad= def6sed a Otic0in3 bomb.O ,(e assassination of Ismail Ab6 S(anab - a to" 2amas leader in t(e GaEa Stri" -(o -as directl1 res"onsible for se8eral s6icide bombin3s incl6din3 t(e latest b6s attac0 in !er6salem - disr6"ted "otential terrorist o"erations. Similarl1= t(e A.S. militar1 o"eration in IraC eliminated Saddam 26sseinBs re3ime as a state s"onsor of terror. ,(6s= it be(oo8es t(ose co6ntries 8ictimiEed b1 terrorism to 6nderstand a cardinal messa3e comm6nicated b1 %inston C(6rc(ill to t(e 2o6se of Commons on ;a1 13= 1. /? OKictor1 at all costs= 8ictor1 in s"ite of terror= 8ictor1 (o-e8er lon3 and (ard t(e road ma1 be? 7or 3i ,o/ Aic or'= t(ere is no s/rAiAal.O
G6e to t(e emer3in3 3a" bet-een ca"abilities and strate31 ca6sed b1 t(e on3oin3 -ar a3ainst terrorism and t(e increasin3 need to "resent credible fi3(tin3 forces for t(e ;iddle <ast and 'orea= t(e nationBs national sec6rit1 concerns m6st be "rioritiEed. S"ecificall1= AmericaBs armed forces m6st= at a minim6m= be "re"ared for fo6r missions? #. 7i3(t t(e immediate -ar on terrorism. G6e to t(e se8erit1 of t(e t(reat and t(e sta0es at ris0= t(e -ar on terrorism m6st be AmericaBs to" "riorit1. As President 96s( (as described n6mero6s times= most recentl1 in (is State of t(e Anion Address=& t(is -ar is m6ltifaceted. ,(e nation m6st (arness its reso6rces to en3a3e t(e terrorists and t(eir state s"onsors financiall1= "oliticall1= di"lomaticall1= and militaril1. ,(is 3lobal mission c6rrentl1 incl6des t(e o"eration in Af3(anistan= resol8in3 t(e IraCi crisis= and smaller de"lo1ments to nations li0e Femen= !ordan= and t(e P(ili""ines. &. 9e "re"ared to fi3(t -it( little or no -arnin3 in 6nantici"ated "laces. ,(e emer3ence of 3lobal comm6nications= ad8ances in tec(nolo31= and t(e 3lobaliEation of terrorism "ro8ide man1 o""ort6nities for s6r"rise attac0s a3ainst t(e Anited States and its interests. ;aintainin3 t(e abilit1 to fi3(t and -in -ars in di8erse sit6ations and en8ironments can disco6ra3e man1 of AmericaBs enemies from (ostile acts. *. ;aintain adeC6ate ca"abilit1 to deter a33ression a3ainst AmericaBs allies. America faces end6rin3 t(reats be1ond terrorism= as demonstrated b1 $ort( 'oreaBs n6clear -ea"ons "ro3ram. ,(ere are nations in e8er1 re3ion of t(e -orld t(at t(reaten AmericaBs 8ital interests in t(e near term. Ass6rin3 stabilit1 in t(ose re3ions and
3&
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Readiness Good/Bad
"rotectin3 A.S. interests reC6ires t(e abilit1 to defeat an1 nation or 3ro6" t(at t(reatens AmericaBs allies= -(ic( itself "ro8ides effecti8e deterrence a3ainst lar3e-scale a33ression. ,(is s(o6ld incl6de bot( con8entional
forces and ot(er ca"abilities s6c( as an effecti8e ballistic missile defense and reliable n6clear forces. ,(e Administration s(o6ld ta0e e8er1 ste" to stren3t(en its im"ortant alliances and be read1 to res"ond forcef6ll1 and immediatel1 to a33ression a3ainst AmericaBs allies. +. Contrib6te to (omeland defense. ,(e armed ser8ices m6st co6nter t(reats to t(e (omeland as t(e1 e8ol8e abroad and "la1 a secondar1 role as t(at t(reat emer3es -it(in A.S. borders. Alt(o63( t(e Penta3on is not t(e "rimar1 federal a3ent of (omeland sec6rit1= it does (a8e a 8ital role to "la1 and m6st dedicate a "ortion of its reso6rces to t(at mission. ,(e acti8e A.S. militar1 s(o6ld be "rimaril1 res"onsible for defendin3 Americans from a33ression and "re8entin3 attac0s on t(e (omeland. Mnce an attac0 occ6rs= (o-e8er= $ational G6ard 6nits s(o6ld ta0e o8er t(e militar1 acti8ities -(ile ot(er 3o8ernment a3encies and "ri8ate entities s(o6lder t(e rest of t(e b6rden.* ,(e missions necessar1 for t(e militar1 to f6lfill its res"onsibilities incl6de deterrence= intelli3ence 3at(erin3= "reem"ti8e stri0es a3ainst entities "osin3 imminent t(reats= missile defense= and researc( and de8elo"ment of co6ntermeas6res and s1stems to defend a3ainst t(reats to t(e (omeland. Protectin3 t(e militar1 from ex"endin3 its reso6rces on (omeland sec6rit1 "ro3rams t(at are better (andled b1 ot(ers -ill be increasin3l1 im"ortant in f6t6re 1ears. ,(is is "artic6larl1 tr6e as t(e ne- Ge"artment of 2omeland Sec6rit1 comes on-line and acC6ires mandated ca"abilities ("artic6larl1 in researc( and de8elo"ment) t(at -o6ld be red6ndant to existin3 GMG "ro3rams.
3*
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Readiness Good/Bad
3+
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Readiness Good/Bad
3.
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Readiness Good/Bad
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Readiness Good/Bad
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Readiness Good/Bad
,(at "olic1 ma1 (a8e some "romise= b6t it needs to be ado"ted 8er1 selecti8el1 and caref6ll1. 7irst= A.S. abdication of dan3ero6s sec6rit1 mis-sions in <6ro"e -o6ld 8iolate t(e lesson learned not onl1 in t(e -orld -ars= b6t also in 9osnia from 1..2 to 1..#. M8er t(at "eriod= t(e Anited States sta1ed a-a1 from t(e 9osnian conflict= lea8in3 its allies to fo6nderRand to lose doEens of soldiers to sni"ers= mines= and acci-dents in t(e A.$.:s ill-fated A$PRM7MR mission. Kirt6all1 aG st6dents of <6ro"ean sec6rit1 on bot( sides of t(e Atlantic (a8e concl6ded t(at t(is t1"e of sit6ation needs to be a8oided in t(e f6t6re? in ot(er -ords= t(e Anited States m6st "artici"ate in f6t6re diffic6lt and dan3ero6s sec6rit1 missions in <6ro"e= "artic6larl1 if it -is(es to maintain its leaders(i" of t(e $A,M alliance. Second= it -o6ld be 6nfort6nate to codif1 a sit6ation in -(ic( <6ro"eans do little for sec6rit1 be1ond <6ro"e. ,(e Anited States s(o6ld not condone s6c( a territorial di8ision of labor= since most of t(e -orId:s diffic6lt f6t6re sec6rit1 tas0s -ill "robabl1 be o6tside t(at continent. <nco6ra3in3 <6ro"e to remain militaril1 ins6lar -o6ld not onl1 be bad for t(e ca6se of eC6itable defense b6rden s(arin3@ it co6ld also reinforce existin3 differences in strate3ic "ers"ecti8es bet-een t(e Anited States and <6ro"e on matters s6c( as "olic1 to-ard IraC and Iran. ,(ird= t(e "ro"osed "olic1 raises certain "ractical C6estions. 7or exam"le= R6ssian troo"s in t(e 9al0ans ser8e 6nder A.S. command= and a A.S. de"art6re -o6ld "6t at ris0 an im"ortant collaborati8e effort bet-een $A,M and R6ssia.3 7inall1= one s(o6ld not for3et t(at t(e allies are alread1 contrib6tin3 most of t(e troo"s in t(e '7MR mission in 'oso8o and t(e S7MR mission in 9osnia. A.S. troo" contrib6tions constit6te less t(an 2/ "ercent of t(e total in t(e 9al0ans toda1 (see table 2-31.3s
7+ inter4entions good
5oo 0"
(;ax-= Sr. 7ello- > t(e Co6ncil on 7orei3n Relations= ;a1 #= %ee0l1 Standard I%(at:s $extQJ= 5exis) 2
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Readiness Good/Bad
As IraC 5iberaliEes= t(e next tas0 -ill be to s"6r t(e liberaliEation of its nei3(bors. 2o- to ac(ie8e t(is 3oal is no- t(e s6bNect of intense debate. ,(e familiar cr1 is alread1 3oin3 6" from <6ro"e= t(e Anited $ations= t(e Arab -orld= and $ational P6blic Radio? Restart t(e O"eace "rocessO bet-een Israelis and Palestinians. Alas= t(ere is no reason to ima3ine t(at OMslo IIO -ill t6rn o6t an1 better t(an t(e ori3inal. Indeed itBs (ard to see (o- an1 Israeli 3o8ernment co6ld ma0e Fasser Arafat a more 3enero6s offer t(an t(e one (e reNected at Cam" Ga8id in 2///. If (e t6rned do-n .+ "ercent of t(e %est 9an0 t(en= -(at co6ld Israel "ossibl1 offer (im no-Q ,(e -a1 to ac(ie8e "eace -it( t(e Palestinians--as President 96s( (as reco3niEed--is to c(an3e t(eir 3o8ernment and liberaliEe t(eir societ1. ,(is is not a "rocess t(at can be com"leted o8erni3(t= and it -ill not be (el"ed b1 "remat6re Israeli concessions t(at a""ear to re-ard terrorism. 91 (an3in3 to63(= Israel seems to be defeatin3 t(e s6icide bombers and e8en forcin3 intros"ection and reform in t(e Palestinian A6t(orit1. A.S. inter8ention no- -o6ld set bac0 t(is o8erd6e "rocess. !6st as in t(e %est 9an0 and GaEa Stri"= so in t(e rest of t(e ;iddle <ast? ,(e "roblem isnBt t(e existence of Israel= t(e onl1 democrac1 in t(e re3ion. ,(e "roblem is t(e existence of so man1 nondemocratic re3imes. Pro3ress reC6ires liberaliEation. GemocratiEation alone is not eno63(= since= as Al3eria s(o-s= elections ma1 brin3 to "o-er Islamist radicals committed to Oone man= one 8ote= one time.O In IraC= not(in3 -o6ld be more disastro6s t(an to allo- forei3n-bac0ed reli3io6s extremists bent on establis(in3 a t(eocrac1 to ta0e "o-er t(ro63( t(e ballot box. Secretar1 R6msfeld reiterated t(e ot(er da1 t(at Oan Iranian-t1"e 3o8ernment . . . isnBt 3oin3 to (a""en.O Still= t(e Anited States s(o6ld be doin3 m6c( more to "romote S(iites committed to a "l6ralist state (1es= t(e1 do exist). It is 8ital to im"lement t(e r6le of la-= freedom of s"eec(= "ro"ert1 ri3(ts= and ot(er 36arantees t(at can act as a safe36ard a3ainst maNoritarian o""ression. ,(at s(o6ld not tem"er o6r commitment to democrac1@ it merel1 means t(at -e are committed to liberalism= too.
A% In erAen ionis- %errorisTerrorist resentment ine4itable! strong military $ minimi&e the damage
5roo6s ( *o,lfor , 02
(Ste"(en G.-= Assist. Prof. in t(e Ge"t. of Go8. > Gartmo6t( = %illiam C-= Assoc. Prof. in t(e Ge"t. of Go8. > Gartmo6t( = !6l14 A636st= 7orei3n Affairs= IAmerican Primac1 in Pers"ecti8eJ= 5exis@ !acob) Some mi3(t C6estion t(e -ort( of bein3 at t(e to" of a 6ni"olar s1stem if t(at means ser8in3 as a li3(tnin3 rod for t(e -orldBs malcontents. %(en t(ere -as a So8iet Anion= after all= it bore t(e br6nt of Msama bin 5adenBs an3er= and onl1 after its colla"se did (e s(ift (is foc6s to t(e Anited States (an indicator of t(e demise of bi"olarit1 t(at -as i3nored at t(e time b6t looms lar3er in retros"ect). 96t terrorism (as been a "erennial "roblem in (istor1= and m6lti"olarit1 did not sa8e t(e leaders of se8eral 3reat "o-ers from assassination b1 anarc(ists aro6nd t(e t6rn of t(e t-entiet( cent6r1. In fact= a slide bac0 to-ard m6lti"olarit1 -o6ld act6all1 be t(e -orst of all -orlds for t(e Anited States. In s6c( a scenario it -o6ld contin6e to lead t(e "ac0 and ser8e as a focal "oint for resentment and (atred b1 bot( state and nonstate actors= b6t it -o6ld (a8e fe-er carrots and stic0s to 6se in dealin3 -it( t(e sit6ation. ,(e t(reats -o6ld remain= b6t t(e "ossibilit1 of effecti8e and coordinated action a3ainst t(em -o6ld be red6ced.
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Readiness Good/Bad
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Readiness Good/Bad
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Readiness Good/Bad
Perce"tions of c(an3e in t(e relati8e "o-er of nations are of critical im"ortance to 6nderstandin3 t(e relations(i" bet-een decline and -ar. Mne of t(e oldest 3eneraliEations abo6t international "olitics attrib6tes t(e onset of maNor -ars to s(ifts in "o-er amon3 t(e leadin3 nations. ,(6s ,(6c1dides acco6nted for t(e onset of t(e
&
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Readiness Good/Bad
Pelo"onnesian %ar -(ic( destro1ed t(e "o-er of ancient At(ens. ,(e (istor1 of t(e interstate s1stem since 1#// is "6nct6ated b1 se8ere -ars in -(ic( one co6ntr1 str633led to s6r"ass anot(er as t(e leadin3 state. If= as Robert Gil"in ar36es= O international "olitics (as not c(an3ed f6ndamentall1 o8er t(e millennia=O t(e im"lications for t(e f6t6re are blea0 . # And if
fears abo6t s(iftin3 "o-er "reci"itate a maNor -ar in a -orld -it( #/=/// n6clear -ea"ons= (istor1 as -e 0no- it ma1 end.
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Readiness Good/Bad
76rt(ermore= 96s( (as 1et to translate t(e militar1 s6ccess into s6""ort for (is domestic "olic1 -(ile all is not so sim"le (ere. In (is time= 96s( Sr.= (a8in3 -on t(e first IraC -ar in 1..1= lost t(e election. ;ean-(ile= after t(e -ar= 96s( Sr. (ad a +. "ercent "o"6larit1 ratin3= as com"ared to (is sonBs && "ercent no-. ,(is= 3i8en t(at a""roximatel1 &/ "ercent of Americans disa3ree -it( (is tax "olic1. In t(is context= t(e %(ite 2o6se co6ld s6cc6mb to t(e tem"tation to score ne- militar1 8ictories as a means of mobiliEin3 t(e nation and -innin3 elections. ;essianism -it( a Problem ,(e Anited States toda1 remains t(e onl1 ;essianicall1 minded co6ntr1. All ot(er democracies "refer calm to re8ol6tionar1 6"(ea8als. AmericaBs idealism= bac0ed 6" b1 its 8ast reso6rces= ma0es it b1 far t(e most d1namic societ1= ca"able of s1stemic s(ifts on t(e 3eo"olitical field. 76rt(ermore= t(e A.S. mi3(t dictates a to63( and 6ncom"romisin3 line of cond6ct on t(e international arena. As one commentator "6t it= 3,en 'o/'Ae 2o a ,a--er in 'o/r ,and1 all $ro4le-s 4e2in o loo6 li6e nails. ,(e s(eer "ossibilit1 of -a3in3 8irt6all1 stand-off -ars -it( minim6m cas6alties be3ets an as"iration to deal -it( -orld "roblems b1 stri0in3 a (ammer. ,(ere is no 3ettin3 a-a1 from t(e fact t(at t(e im"otence of international instit6tions= t(e (el"lessness of <6ro"e in militar1 affairs and its obsession -it( its internal "roblems of inte3ration do little to enco6ra3e t(e Anited States to dis"la1 collecti8ist instincts. Gra8itation b1 t(e A.S. elite to-ard forcef6l "olic1 "rod6ces a 8icio6s circle? ,(e 6se of force is reNected b1 t(e rest of t(e -orld= ma0in3 America more 86lnerable= -(ic( in its t6rn leads to f6rt(er 6se of force. As a res6lt= t(e Anited States ris0s endin3 6" as a destabiliEin3 factor in t(e -orld. ;ean-(ile= t(e f6t6re of a ne- -orld order toda1 is in t(e (ands of t(e Anited States -(ic( can t6rn it eit(er -a1. ,(is "6ts to t(e test American societ1Bs abilit1 to realisticall1 assess bot( international t(reats and its o-n limitations= b6t most im"ortantl1= its abilit1 to a""l1 democratic "rinci"les in t(e forei3n "olic1 s"(ere. $onet(eless= t(is also is a moment of tr6t( for t(e rest of t(e -orld -(ic( s(o6ld 6nderstand t(at t(ere are t(reats - abo8e all t(e dan3er of "roliferation of mass destr6ction -ea"ons and international terrorism - t(at reC6ire an immediate and to63( res"onse. So t(ere is a need to t(in0 abo6t "6ttin3 in "lace a le3al 3ro6nd-or0 -it( a""ro"riate ne- instit6tions to ens6re s6c( a res"onse. ,(is -ill ma0e it "ossible to a8oid sit6ations -(ere t(e Anited States co6ld once a3ain find itself in isolation= -(ic( is dan3ero6s bot( for itself and for t(e international comm6nit1.
attac0s or intended attac0s -it( %;G= and t(at it intends to 6se n6clear -ea"ons to destro1 6nder3ro6nd enem1 facilities. It is ar36ed t(at s6c( statements (a8e deterrent 8al6e= and t(at maintainin3 ambi36it1 as to -(at mi3(t tri33er a A.S. n6clear attac0 deters co6ntries from "6rs6in3 militar1 initiati8es t(at are contrar1 to A.S. interests. $onsense. ,(ose statements (a8e no deterrent 8al6e beca6se no one in (is or (er ri3(t mind -o6ld belie8e t(at t(e 3reatest democrac1 in t(e -orld -o6ld do s6c( a t(in3.
Anless t(e A.S. demonstrates= b1 act6all1 doin3 it once= t(at it is indeed "re"ared to do so. 2o- do 1o6 create t(e conditions to "erform s6c( a demonstration and a8oid immediate 6ni8ersal condemnationQ U a6t(or contin6es U 2o-e8er= t(e real -orld does not al-a1s follo- t(e scri"t en8isioned b1 A.S. "lanners= as t(e IraC ex"erience ill6strates. So (ere is a more li0el1 O"ost-demoO scenario? +
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Readiness Good/Bad a
* ;an1 non-n6clear co6ntries= incl6din3 t(ose c6rrentl1 friendl1 to t(e A.S.= -ill r6s( to de8elo" n6clear deterrent= and man1 -ill s6cceed. * ,errorist 3ro6"s s1m"at(etic to Iran -ill do t(eir 6tmost to retaliate in-0ind a3ainst t(e A.S.= and e8ent6all1 -ill s6cceed. * %it( t(e taboo a3ainst t(e 6se of n6clear -ea"ons bro0en= 6se of t(em b1 ot(er co6ntries -ill follo- in 8ario6s re3ional conflicts= and s6bseC6ent escalation -ill lead to 3lobal n6clear -ar. 91e-b1e -orld= incl6din3 t(e Anited States of America.
A st6d1 com"leted for t(e A.S. Ge"artment of Gefense notes t(at (istorical data s(o- a stron3 correlation bet-een A.S. in8ol8ement in international sit6ations and terrorist attac0s a3ainst t(e Anited States. Attac0s b1 terrorist 3ro6"s co6ld no- be catastro"(ic for t(e American (omeland. ,errorists can obtain t(e tec(nolo31 for -ea"ons of mass terror and -ill (a8e fe-er C6alms abo6t 6sin3 t(em to ca6se massi8e cas6alties. ,(e assistant secretar1 of defense for reser8e affairs maintains t(at s6c( catastro"(ic attac0s are almost certain to occ6r. It -ill be extremel1 diffic6lt to deter= "re8ent= detect= or miti3ate t(em. As a res6lt= e8en t(e -ea0est terrorist 3ro6" can ca6se massi8e destr6ction in t(e (omeland of a s6"er"o-er. Alt(o63( t(e Cold %ar ended nearl1 a decade a3o= A.S. forei3n "olic1 (as remained on a6to"ilot. ,(e Anited States contin6es to inter8ene militaril1 in conflicts all o8er t(e 3lobe t(at are irrele8ant to American 8ital interests. ,o satisf1 -(at s(o6ld be t(e first "riorit1 of an1 sec6rit1 "olic1--"rotectin3 t(e (omeland and its "eo"le--t(e Anited States s(o6ld ado"t a "olic1 of militar1 restraint. ,(at "olic1 entails inter8enin3 onl1 as a last resort -(en tr6l1 8ital interests are at sta0e. ,o "ara"(rase Ant(on1 Sinni=
t(e commander of A.S. forces in t(e ;iddle <ast= t(e Anited States s(o6ld a8oid ma0in3 enemies b6t s(o6ld not be 0ind to t(ose t(at arise.
contem"orar1 terrorists (a8e introd6ced a ne- scale of 8iolence in terms of con8entional and 6ncon8entional t(reats and im"act.
.
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Readiness Good/Bad
,(e internationaliEation and br6taliEation of c6rrent and f6t6re terrorism ma0e it clear -e (a8e entered an A3e of S6"er ,errorism Ve.3. biolo3ical= c(emical, radiolo3ical= n6clear and c1ber] -it( its serio6s im"lications concernin3 national= re3ional and 3lobal sec6rit1 concerns. ,-o m1t(s in "artic6lar m6st be deb6n0ed immediatel1 if an effecti8e co6nterterrorism Obest "racticesO strate31 can be de8elo"ed Ve.3.= stren3t(enin3 international coo"erationW.
,(e first ill6sion is t(at terrorism can be 3reatl1 red6ced= if not eliminated com"letel1= "ro8ided t(e root ca6ses of conflicts - "olitical= social and economic - are addressed. ,(e con8entional ill6sion is t(at terrorism m6st be N6stified b1 o""ressed "eo"le see0in3 to ac(ie8e t(eir 3oals and conseC6entl1 t(e ar36ment ad8anced b1 Ofreedom fi3(tersO an1-(ere= O3i8e me libert1 and I -ill 3i8e 1o6 deat(=O s(o6ld be tolerated if not 3lorified. ,(is traditional rationaliEation of OsacredO 8iolence often conceals t(at t(e real "6r"ose of terrorist 3ro6"s is to 3ain "olitical "o-er t(ro63( t(e barrel of t(e 36n= in 8iolation of f6ndamental (6man ri3(ts of t(e noncombatant se3ment of societies. 7or instance= Palestinians reli3io6s mo8ements Ve.3.= 2amas= Islamic !i(adW and sec6lar entities Vs6c( as 7ata(Bs ,anEim and ACsa ;art1r 9ri3adesWW -is( not onl1 to resol8e national 3rie8ances Vs6c( as !e-is( settlements= ri3(t of ret6rn= !er6salemW b6t "rimaril1 to destro1 t(e !e-is( state. Similarl1= Msama bin 5adenBs international net-or0 not onl1 o""oses t(e "resence of American militar1 in t(e Arabian Penins6la and IraC= b6t its stated obNecti8e is to O6nite all ;6slims and establis( a 3o8ernment t(at follo-s t(e r6le of t(e Cali"(s.O
,(e second m1t( is t(at stron3 action a3ainst terrorist infrastr6ct6re Vleaders= recr6itment= f6ndin3= "ro"a3anda= trainin3= -ea"ons= o"erational command and controlW -ill onl1 increase terrorism. ,(e ar36ment (ere is t(at la--enforcement efforts and militar1 retaliation ine8itabl1 -ill f6el more br6tal acts of 8iolent re8en3e. Clearl1= if t(is "erce"tion contin6es to "re8ail= "artic6larl1 in democratic societies= t(ere is t(e dan3er it -ill "aral1Ee 3o8ernments and t(ereb1 enco6ra3e f6rt(er terrorist attac0s. In s6m= "ast ex"erience "ro8ides 6sef6l lessons for a realistic f6t6re strate31. ,(e "r6dent a""lication of force (as been demonstrated to be an effecti8e tool for s(ort- and lon3-term deterrence of terrorism. 7or exam"le= IsraelBs tar3eted 0illin3 of ;o(ammed Sider= t(e 2ebron commander of t(e Islamic !i(ad= def6sed a Otic0in3 bomb.O ,(e assassination of Ismail Ab6 S(anab - a to" 2amas leader in t(e GaEa Stri" -(o -as directl1 res"onsible for se8eral s6icide bombin3s incl6din3 t(e latest b6s attac0 in !er6salem - disr6"ted "otential terrorist o"erations. Similarl1= t(e A.S. militar1 o"eration in IraC eliminated Saddam 26sseinBs re3ime as a state s"onsor of terror. ,(6s= it be(oo8es t(ose co6ntries 8ictimiEed b1 terrorism to 6nderstand a cardinal messa3e comm6nicated b1 %inston C(6rc(ill to t(e 2o6se of Commons on ;a1 13= 1. /? OKictor1 at all costs= 8ictor1 in s"ite of terror= 8ictor1 (o-e8er lon3 and (ard t(e road ma1 be? 7or 3i ,o/ Aic or'= t(ere is no s/rAiAal.O
Accordin3 to Secretar1 of State ;adeleine Albri3(t= terrorism is t(e most im"ortant t(reat t(e Anited States and t(e -orld face as t(e 21Jt cent6r1 be3ins. 2i3(-le8el A.S. officials (a8e ac0no-led3ed t(at terrorists are no- more li0el1 to be able to obtain and 6se n6clear= c(emical= and biolo3ical -ea"ons t(an e8er before. Fet
most attention (as been foc6sed on combatin3 terrorism b1 deterrin3 and disr6"tin3 it before(and and retaliatin3 a3ainst it after t(e fact. 5ess attention (as been "aid to -(at moti8ates terrorists to la6nc( attac0s. Accordin3 to t(e Penta3on:s Gefense
Science 9oard= a stron3 correlation exists bet-een A.S. in8ol8ement in international sit6ations and an increase in terrorist attac0s a3ainst t(e Anited States. President Clinton (as also ac0no-led3ed t(at lin0. ,(e board= (o-e8er= (as "ro8ided no em"irical data to s6""ort its concl6sion. ,(is "a"er fills t(at 3a" b1 citin3 man1 exam"les of terrorist attac0s on t(e Anited States in retaliation for A.S. inter8ention o8erseas. ,(e n6mero6s incidents catalo3ed s633est t(at t(e Anited States co6ld red6ce t(e c(ances of s6c( de8astatin3-and "otentiall1 catastro"(icR terrorist attac0s b1 ado"tin3 a "olic1 of militar1 restraint o8erseas.
#/
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Readiness Good/Bad
-orld is far more interconnected toda1= -(ic( ma0es t(e conseC6ences of sanctimonio6s= arro3ant= or cl6ms1 international be(a8ior ris0ier "oliticall1= di"lomaticall1= and economicall1. Second= t(e "otential costs associated -it( ma0in3 enemies toda1 are far 3reater t(an t(e1 -ere for em"ires "ast. Indeed= t(e 9ritis( and Romans -ere t(e tar3ets of assassinations= arson= and ot(er forms of anti-im"erial bac0las(= b6t t(at acti8it1 -as t1"icall1 small-scale and too0 "lace far a-a1 from t(e mot(er co6ntr1. In contrast= forms of bac0las( a3ainst t(e A.S. role as 3loboco" toda1 co6ld be lar3e-scale and lon3-ran3e and ma1 be directed at America:s (omelandRas s(o-n b1 t(e attac0s on Se"tember 11= -(ic( -ere la6nc(ed b1 Msama bin 5aden in retaliation for t(e A.S. militar1 "resence in Sa6di Arabia= A.S. s6""ort for Israel= A.S.-led economic sanctions a3ainst IraC= and A.S. bac0in3 of corr6"t re3imes in t(e ;iddle <ast. In t(e f6t6re= terrorists retaliatin3 for A.S. actions o8erseas co6ld 6se more "o-erf6l -ea"ons a3ainst t(e A.S. (omelandRfor exam"le= n6clear= biolo3ical= and c(emical -ea"ons. ,(6s= t(e resentment of A.S. neoim"erialism co6ld "ro8o0e catastro"(ic terrorism a3ainst t(e Anited States itselfRt(ereb1 dramaticall1 red6cin3 A.S. sec6rit1.
9eca6se terrorist attac0s 6sin3 -ea"ons of mass destr6ction are extremel1 diffic6lt to "re8ent or miti3ate= t(e administration needs to concentrate its efforts on minimiEin3 t(e moti8ation for s6c( attac0s in t(e first "lace. ,(e Anited States s(o6ld resist t(e tem"tation to inter8ene o8erseas in sit6ations not critical to its 8ital interests. ,(is tem"tation -ill be es"eciall1 3reat -(en (6manitarian ar36ments are offered for inter8ention. 96t e8en -(en it is not a co8er for ot(er moti8es= inter8ention for (6manitarian "6r"oses is 6s6all1 not "ercei8ed as ne6tral b1 all "arties to a conflict. Some of t(ose "arties ma1 e8ent6all1 see0 re8en3e for A.S. inter8ention t(e1 resent. In s(ort= A.S. "olic1-ma0ers s(o6ld 3et bac0 to basics and remember t(at a nationBs sec6rit1 "olic1 s(o6ld first "rotect its o-n citiEens= bot( o8erseas and at (ome. Americans s(o6ld not (a8e to li8e in fear of terrorism N6st so %as(in3tonBs forei3n "olic1 elite can attem"t to ac(ie8e amor"(o6s and e"(emeral 3ains on t(e -orld c(essboard.
#1
Caldebate.com
Readiness Good/Bad
ad8ocates of em"ire recommend more di33in3. 96t di33in3 -ill neit(er 3et t(e man o6t of t(e (ole nor ma0e t(e Anited States safer. America and its citiEens -ill become an e8en 3reater li3(tnin3 rod for t(e -orld:s "olitical malcontents. As former Rea3an ad8iser and Cato Instit6te senior fello- Go63 9ando- -arns? I%it( t(e 3ro-in3 abilit1 of small "olitical mo8ements and co6ntries to 0ill A.S. citiEens and to t(reaten mass destr6ction= t(e ris0s of forei3n entan3lements increase. . . . In comin3 1ears= t(e Anited States co6ld concei8abl1 lose one or more lar3e cities to demented or irrational retaliation for American inter8ention.J1//
'laims that hege pre4ent war are wrong! U.S. act ally e2acerbates conflicts
+onr' !=
(9arbara-= forei3n "olic1 anal1st > t(e Cato Instit6te= 7eb #= Cato Polic1 Anal1sis= IA.S. OGlobal 5eaders(i"O? A <6"(emism for %orld PolicemanJ= L2&*= (tt"?44---.cato.or34"6bs4"as4"a-2&*.(tml@ !acob) #2
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Readiness Good/Bad
Mt(er "ro"onents of A.S. "olitical and militar1 leaders(i" do not "oint to "artic6lar benefits@ instead= t(e1 -arn of nearcertain disaster if t(e Anited States relinC6is(es its leaders(i" role. C(risto"(er "aints a blea0 "ict6re? !6st consider -(at t(e -orld -o6ld be li0e -it(o6t American leaders(i" in t(e last t-o 1ears alone. %e -o6ld (a8e fo6r n6clear states in t(e former So8iet Anion= instead of one= -it( R6ssian missiles still tar3eted at o6r (omes. %e -o6ld (a8e a f6llt(rottled n6clear "ro3ram in $ort( 'orea@ no GA,, a3reement and no $A7,A@ br6tal dictators still terroriEin3 2aiti@ 8er1 li0el1= IraCi troo"s bac0 in '6-ait@ and an 6nresol8ed ;exican economic crisis= -(ic( -o6ld t(reaten stabilit1 at o6r border. V##W Gin3ric( (as "rono6nced a f6t6re -it(o6t American leaders(i" Oa bi3 mess.O V#&WAnd former 9ritis( "rime minister ;ar3aret ,(atc(er (as -arned= %(at -e are "ossibl1 loo0in3 at in 2/.# Vabsent A.S. leaders(i"W is an 6nstable -orld in -(ic( t(ere are more t(an (alf a doEen O3reat "o-ers=O eac( -it( its o-n clients= all 86lnerable if t(e1 stand alone= all ca"able of increasin3 t(eir "o-er and infl6ence if t(e1 form t(e ri3(t 0ind of alliance= and all en3a3ed -ill1-nill1 in "er"et6al di"lomatic mane68ers to ens6re t(at t(eir relati8e "ositions im"ro8e rat(er t(an deteriorate. In ot(er -ords= 2/.# mi3(t loo0 li0e 1.1 "la1ed on a some-(at lar3er sta3e. V#*W In ot(er -ords= if America abdicates its role as -orld leader= -e are condemned to re"eat t(e bi33est mista0es of t(e 2/t( cent6r1--or "er(a"s do somet(in3 e8en -orse. S6c( t(in0in3 is serio6sl1 fla-ed= (o-e8er. 7irst= to assert t(at A.S. leaders(i" can sta8e off ot(er-ise ine8itable 3lobal c(aos 8astl1 o8erestimates t(e "o-er of an1 sin3le co6ntr1 to infl6ence -orld e8ents. ,(e Anited States is "o-erf6l= b6t it still can claim onl1 # "ercent of t(e -orldBs "o"6lation and 2/ "ercent of -orld economic o6t"6t. ;oreo8er= re3ardless of t(e reso6rces Americans mi3(t be -illin3 to de8ote to leadin3 t(e -orld= toda1Bs "roblems often do not lend t(emsel8es -ell to external sol6tions. As ;a1nes (as "ointed o6t= ,oda1= t(e 3reatest fear of most states is not external a33ression b6t internal disorder. ,(e Anited States can do little abo6t t(e latter= -(ereas it 6sed to be able to do a 3reat deal abo6t t(e former. In ot(er -ords= t(e coina3e of A.S. "o-er in t(e -orld (as been de8al6ed b1 t(e c(an3e in t(e international a3enda. V#+W Indeed= man1 of t(e forei3n "olic1 "roblems t(at (a8e confo6nded %as(in3ton since t(e demise of t(e So8iet Anion are t(e 0inds of "roblems t(at are li0el1 to tro6ble t(e -orld -ell into t(e next cent6r1. O7ailed states=O s6c( as Somalia= ma1 not be 6ncommon. 96t= as t(e ill-fated A.S. and A$ o"erations in t(at co6ntr1 s(o-ed= t(ere is 8er1 little t(at o6tside "o-ers can do abo6t s6c( "roblems. <xternal "o-ers 6s6all1 lac0 t(e means to "re8ent or end ci8il -ars= s6c( as t(ose in R-anda and t(e former F63osla8ia= 6nless t(e1 are -illin3 to ma0e a tremendo6s effort to do so. Fet t(ose t1"es of internecine conflicts are li0el1 to be one of t(e "rimar1 so6rces of international disorder for t(e foreseeable f6t6re. Ges"ite t(e doomsa1ers -(o "ro"(es1 3lobal c(aos in t(e absence of A.S. leaders(i"= (o-e8er= %as(in3tonBs limited abilit1 to dam"en s6c( conflicts is not ca6se for "anic. Instabilit1 is a normal feat6re of an international s1stem of so8erei3n states= -(ic( t(e Anited States can tolerate and (as tolerated for more t(an t-o cent6ries. If 8ital American interests are not at sta0e= instabilit1 itself becomes a serio6s "roblem onl1 if t(e Anited States bl6nders into it= as it did in Somalia and 9osnia. V#.W
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Readiness Good/Bad
extermination of ci8iliEation= 1et t(e exercise of American "o-er (as re"eatedl1 "ro8en in-com"etentl1 conce"t6aliEed and directed and in si3nificant res"ects irrele8ant to t(e -orld:s militar1 and ["olitical c(allen3es. <xam"les of s6c( mis(andlin3 incl6de not onl1 t(e Kietnam %ar= t(e maladroit Central American and Caribbean inter8entions= and t(e Somalia fiasco= b6t also t(e 1... inter8ention in 'oso8o. ,(ere= $A,M fo63(t a -ar t(at "ro8ed to be different from t(e one Serbia -as fi3(tin3= lea8in3 t(e Serbian arm1 intact -(ile failin3 to "re8ent t(e "6r3e of et(nic Albanians from 'oso8o. In t(e end= R6ssian di"lomatic inter8ention -as reC6ired to "rod6ce an o6tcome t(at "reser8ed $A,M:s re"6tation. ,(e 'oso8o cam"ai3nR-ell-meant b6t lac0in3 co(erent "olitical direction or 3eo"olitical 8ision= reliant on tec(nolo31 b6t[ recoilin3 from t(e ris0 of cas6altiesRre8ealed an American a""roac( to t(e exercise of "o-er t(at is scarcel1 one of a determined (e3emon. Mne of 7rance:s commanders in t(e 9osnia cam"ai3n= General P(ili""e ;orillon= as0ed at t(e time= I2o- can 1o6 (a8e soldiers -(o are read1 to 0ill= -(o are not read1 to dieQJ
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Readiness Good/Bad
)o . (1 of 2)
'laims that U.S. military presence pre4ents war are wrong! U.S. act ally e2acerbates conflicts.
+onr' !=
(9arbara-= forei3n "olic1 anal1st > t(e Cato Instit6te= 7eb #= Cato Polic1 Anal1sis= IA.S. OGlobal 5eaders(i"O? A <6"(emism for %orld PolicemanJ= L2&*= (tt"?44---.cato.or34"6bs4"as4"a-2&*.(tml@ !acob) Mt(er "ro"onents of A.S. "olitical and militar1 leaders(i" do not "oint to "artic6lar benefits@ instead= t(e1 -arn of nearcertain disaster if t(e Anited States relinC6is(es its leaders(i" role. C(risto"(er "aints a blea0 "ict6re? !6st consider -(at t(e -orld -o6ld be li0e -it(o6t American leaders(i" in t(e last t-o 1ears alone. %e -o6ld (a8e fo6r n6clear states in t(e former So8iet Anion= instead of one= -it( R6ssian missiles still tar3eted at o6r (omes. %e -o6ld (a8e a f6llt(rottled n6clear "ro3ram in $ort( 'orea@ no GA,, a3reement and no $A7,A@ br6tal dictators still terroriEin3 2aiti@ 8er1 li0el1= IraCi troo"s bac0 in '6-ait@ and an 6nresol8ed ;exican economic crisis= -(ic( -o6ld t(reaten stabilit1 at o6r border. V##W Gin3ric( (as "rono6nced a f6t6re -it(o6t American leaders(i" Oa bi3 mess.O V#&WAnd former 9ritis( "rime minister ;ar3aret ,(atc(er (as -arned= %(at -e are "ossibl1 loo0in3 at in 2/.# Vabsent A.S. leaders(i"W is an 6nstable -orld in -(ic( t(ere are more t(an (alf a doEen O3reat "o-ers=O eac( -it( its o-n clients= all 86lnerable if t(e1 stand alone= all ca"able of increasin3 t(eir "o-er and ##
Caldebate.com
Readiness Good/Bad
infl6ence if t(e1 form t(e ri3(t 0ind of alliance= and all en3a3ed -ill1-nill1 in "er"et6al di"lomatic mane68ers to ens6re t(at t(eir relati8e "ositions im"ro8e rat(er t(an deteriorate. In ot(er -ords= 2/.# mi3(t loo0 li0e 1.1 "la1ed on a some-(at lar3er sta3e. V#*W In ot(er -ords= if America abdicates its role as -orld leader= -e are condemned to re"eat t(e bi33est mista0es of t(e 2/t( cent6r1--or "er(a"s do somet(in3 e8en -orse. S6c( t(in0in3 is serio6sl1 fla-ed= (o-e8er. 7irst= to assert t(at A.S. leaders(i" can sta8e off ot(er-ise ine8itable 3lobal c(aos 8astl1 o8erestimates t(e "o-er of an1 sin3le co6ntr1 to infl6ence -orld e8ents. ,(e Anited States is "o-erf6l= b6t it still can claim onl1 # "ercent of t(e -orldBs "o"6lation and 2/ "ercent of -orld economic o6t"6t. ;oreo8er= re3ardless of t(e reso6rces Americans mi3(t be -illin3 to de8ote to leadin3 t(e -orld= toda1Bs "roblems often do not lend t(emsel8es -ell to external sol6tions. As ;a1nes (as "ointed o6t= ,oda1= t(e 3reatest fear of most states is not external a33ression b6t internal disorder. ,(e Anited States can do little abo6t t(e latter= -(ereas it 6sed to be able to do a 3reat deal abo6t t(e former. In ot(er -ords= t(e coina3e of A.S. "o-er in t(e -orld (as been de8al6ed b1 t(e c(an3e in t(e international a3enda. V#+W Indeed= man1 of t(e forei3n "olic1 "roblems t(at (a8e confo6nded %as(in3ton since t(e demise of t(e So8iet Anion are t(e 0inds of "roblems t(at are li0el1 to tro6ble t(e -orld -ell into t(e next cent6r1. O7ailed states=O s6c( as Somalia= ma1 not be 6ncommon. 96t= as t(e ill-fated A.S. and A$ o"erations in t(at co6ntr1 s(o-ed= t(ere is 8er1 little t(at o6tside "o-ers can do abo6t s6c( "roblems. <xternal "o-ers 6s6all1 lac0 t(e means to "re8ent or end ci8il -ars= s6c( as t(ose in R-anda and t(e former F63osla8ia= 6nless t(e1 are -illin3 to ma0e a tremendo6s effort to do so. Fet t(ose t1"es of internecine conflicts are li0el1 to be one of t(e "rimar1 so6rces of international disorder for t(e foreseeable f6t6re. Ges"ite t(e doomsa1ers -(o "ro"(es1 3lobal c(aos in t(e absence of A.S. leaders(i"= (o-e8er= %as(in3tonBs limited abilit1 to dam"en s6c( conflicts is not ca6se for "anic. Instabilit1 is a normal feat6re of an international s1stem of so8erei3n states= -(ic( t(e Anited States can tolerate and (as tolerated for more t(an t-o cent6ries. If 8ital American interests are not at sta0e= instabilit1 itself becomes a serio6s "roblem onl1 if t(e Anited States bl6nders into it= as it did in Somalia and 9osnia. V#.W
)o . (1 of 2)
U.S. attempts to deter regional conflicts fail! its enemies always ha4e less to lose and more to gain
;a'ne !=
(C(risto"(er-= Associate Prof in t(e Sc(ool of International St6dies > A. of ;iami= S6mmer= International Sec6rit1= I7rom Pre"onderance to Mffs(ore 9alancin3=J Kol. 22 L1) A cr6cial factor in -ei3(in3 t(e credibilit1 of a defenderBs extended deterrence commitments is t(e extent of its interest in t(e "rotected area 8i I lad t(e So8iets contem"lated serio6sl1 an attac0 on %estern <6ro"e= t(e ris0 calc6l6s "robabl1 -o6ld (a8e diss6aded t(em. In a bi"olar settin3 %estern <6ro"eBs sec6rit1 -as a matter of s6"reme im"ortance to t(e Anited States for bot( strate3ic and re"6tational reasons. In t(e earl1 t-ent1-first cent6r1= (o-e8er= t(e intrinsic 8al6e of man1 of t(e re3ions -(ere t(e Anited States ma1 -is( to extend deterrence -ill be do6btf6l. Indeed= in t(e "ost Cold %ar -orld Bfe- ima3inable dis"6tes -ill en3a3e 8ital A.S. interests.O It t(6s -ill be diffic6lt to con8ince a "otential attac0er t(at A S. deterrence commitments are credible. ;oreo8er= t(e atten6ated nat6re of AS. interests -ill res6lt in moti8ational as1mmetries fa8orin3 "otential c(allen3ers list is= t(e Obalance of resol8eO -ill lie -it( t(e c(allen3er= not -it( t(e Anited States= beca6se t(e c(allen3er -ill (a8e more at sta0e It is do6btf6l t(at t(e 6nited States co6ld deter a R6ssian in8asion of t(e 9altics or A0raine= or= se8eral decades (ence= a C(in assa6lt on ,ai-an. ,o en3a3e= in s6c( actions= ;osco- or 9eiNin3 -o6ld (a8e to be (i3(l1 moti8ated@ con8ersel1= t(e obNects of "ossible attac0 are 6nim"ortant strate3icall1 to t(e Anited States= -(ic( -o6ld ca6se t(e c(allen3er to disco6nt A.S. credibilit1 #&
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Readiness Good/Bad
,(e s"rin3 1._ Grids bet-een C(ina and ,ai-an s633ests t(e diffic6lties t(at A.S. extended deterrence strate31 -ill lace in comin3 decades (C(ina "ro - 8o0ed t(e crisis b1 cond6ctin3 intimidatin3 militar1 exercises in an attem"t to infl6ence ,ai-anBs "residential elections.) fairin3 t(e crisis a C(inese official said t(at C(ina co6ld 6se force a3ainst ,ai-an -it(o6t fear of A.S. inter8ention beca6se American decision ma0ers Ocare mom abo6t 5as An3eles t(an t(e1 do abo6t ,ai-an.O Alt(o63( an em"t1 t(reat toda1= as C(ina becomes more "o-erf6l militaril1 and economicall1 in comin3 decades= t(reats of t(is nat6re from 9eiNin3 -ill be more "otent.
#*
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Readiness Good/Bad
A% Ger-an'
*ther + ropean powers chec$ ;erman prolif
Mears,ei-er 01
(!o(n !.-= Se"t.4Mct.= 7orei3n Affairs= I,(e f6t6re of t(e American "acifierJ= (tt"?44it.stla-6.ed64\3o8t43&17/2;ears(imer.(tml) Fet e8en t(o63( German1 is li0el1 to become a "otential (e3emon if it (as to "ro8ide for its o-n sec6rit1= t(e Anited States is still li0el1 to "6ll its forces o6t of <6ro"e. %(1Q 9eca6se des"ite German1:s si3nificant militar1 "otential= ot(er <6ro"ean "o-ers s(o6ld be able to 0ee" it from dominatin3 <6ro"e -it(o6t (el" from t(e Anited States. ,(e Anited 'in3dom= 7rance= Ital1= and R6ssia to3et(er (a8e abo6t t(ree times as man1 "eo"le as German1 does= and t(eir combined -ealt( is ro63(l1 t(ree times 3reater t(an German1:s. ,(e Anited 'in3dom= 7rance= and R6ssia all (a8e n6clear -ea"ons= moreo8er= "ro8idin3 a stron3 deterrent a3ainst an ex"ansionist German1 e8en if it does de8elo" its o-n n6clear o"tion.
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Readiness Good/Bad
German 6nification in 1.+. raised t(e s"ectre of German (e3emon1 in "ost-cold -ar <6ro"e. In t(is article= I demonstrate t(at German1 lac0s t(e str6ct6ral "o-er consistent -it( <6ro"ean (e3emon1 or dominance@ t(at t(ere is little e8idence s6""ortin3 an a""reciable 3a" bet-een German1Bs str6ct6ral "o-er and forei3n "olic1 ambitions@ and t(at a""arent s1m"toms of German (e3emon1= "artic6larl1 t(e "rocess of instit6tional em6lation in Central and <astern <6ro"e= reflect ot(er international "rocesses and incenti8es emanatin3 from t(e state s1stem itself. ,(is reassessment and do-n3radin3 of German1Bs relati8e and absol6te "o-er resol8e t(e "aradox of German str6ct6ral "o-er and German rel6ctance identified b1 ot(ers. 96t t(is alternati8e narrati8e raises anot(er more im"ortant C6estion? -(1 is German1 treated as a "otential or e8en as"irin3 (e3emon in <6ro"eQ ,(e ans-er to t(at C6estion is located in t(e interconnected le3acies of A6sc(-itE and t(e occ6"ation re3ime. ,(is Noint le3ac1 constit6tes an im"ortant "ar t of t(e (istorical context -it(in -(ic( -e frame o6r assessments and N6d3ements of German "o-er@ ex"lains t(e freC6entl1 6n-arranted exa33eration and s6s"icion of German "o-er@ and demonstrates (o- t(e "ast can f6nction as a "o-erf6l "rism t(o63( -(ic( -e inter"ret t(e intentions= ambitions and ca"abilities of a state.
A% #a$anese Prolif
Japan will ne4er re!arm
#o,nson 01
(C(almers-= ;a1 1 = ,(e $ation= I,ime to 9rin3 t(e ,roo"s 2ome ? AmericaBs "ro8ocati8e militar1 "ost6re in Asia ma0es -ar -it( c(ina more li0el1J= $o. 1.= Kol. 2*2@ P3. 2/= 5exis@ !acob )
forces sa1 t(e1 m6st remain in Asia= "artic6larl1 in !a"an= is t(at !a"an itself ma1 once a3ain become a t(reat to its nei3(bors. ,(is ar36ment is increasin3l1 distastef6l to !a"anese= -(o "oint o6t t(at "a1in3 for American bases on t(eir o-n soil as -atc(do3s is tantamo6nt to "a1in3 for t(eir o-n Nailers. ,(e !a"anese also ar36e t(at t(eir "ast (istor1 and c6rrent demo3ra"(ics (1& "ercent of t(e "o"6lation o8er &# and a belo--re"lacement birt(rate) ma0e re8i8ed militarism abo6t as li0el1 as re8i8ed sla8er1 in t(e Anited States.
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Readiness Good/Bad
Ges"ite t(e fa8orable Asian con8entional balances= some Asian "o-ers mi3(t feel "ress6re at t(e n6clear le8el from an American -it(dra-al. !a"an and So6t( 'orea c6rrentl1 enNo1 t(e sec6rit1 of t(e American n6clear 6mbrella= and some of t(eir nei3(bors= -it( -(om t(e1 s(are a (istor1 of conflict= alread1 (a8e n6clear arsenals.B It -o6ld not be s6r"risin3 if So6t( 'orea and !a"an -is(ed to re"lace t(e American n6clear commitment -it( t(eir o-n deterrent forces. Mn t(e ot(er (and= t(e1 mi3(t be restrained b1 t(e c(ance t(at "roliferation -o6ld scare t(eir nei3(bors@ t(e !a"anese are at least officiall1 sensiti8e to t(e Ofallac1 of t(e last mo8e.OO 7ort6natel1= if t(e1 do decide to de8elo" n6clear -ea"ons= !a"an and So6t( 'orea are 3ood candidates for safe "roliferationBs 9ot( co6ntries (a8e t(e militar1 "o-er to "rotect t(eir n6clear forces from con8entional attac0= miti3atin3 fears of inad8ertent escalation and bot( "ossess t(e tec(nolo3ical "ro-ess to de8elo" sec6re= second-stri0e arsenals. ,(e onl1 "roliferation dan3er lies in transition. ,(e Anited States= t(erefore= s(o6ld maintain its c6rrent n6clear commitments -(ile it "6lls o6t o Asia. G6rin3 t(at time America s(o6ld offer assistance on n6clear tec(nolo31 iss6es to t(e So6t( 'oreans and !a"anese if t(e1 decide to "6rs6e t(eir o-n deterrent forces.
A% Iran
1eadiness won5t deter "ran
Heis4o/r2 09
(7rancois-= 7eb. .= 7inancial ,imes= I%e need a common "olic1 on IranJ= 5exis@ !acob) It is tem"tin3 to describe t(is as a O3ood co"= bad co"O di8ision of labo6r bet-een a (ard-"o-er AS= -it( its militar1 forces in readiness= and a soft-"o-er <6ro"e tem"tin3 ,e(ran -it( assorted trade and tec(nolo3ical 3oodies. 96t t(is is not t(e -a1 t(in3s -or0 toda1. AmericaBs sabre-rattlin3 is not li0el1 to deter Iran? t(e last t(in3 t(e o8erstretc(ed AS forces in IraC need is Iran aidin3 and abettin3 ins6rrection in S(ia areas t(at are no- C6iescent. It -o6ld reC6ire a s6bstantial red6ction of AS ex"os6re in IraC to restore credibilit1 to militar1 "ress6re.
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Readiness Good/Bad
A% Israel
Non!U 0 e#d! "srael is paranoid now
%,e A lan ic Mon ,l' Gro/$ 00
(!6ne= I,(e 5o3ic of S6icide ,errorism= Kol. 2.1 L #) $earl1 e8er1-(ere in t(e -orld it is ta0en for 3ranted t(at one can sim"l1 "6s( o"en t(e door to a resta6rant= caf]= or bar= sit do-n= and order a meal or a drin0. In Israel t(e "rocess of enterin3 s6c( a "lace is more com"licated. Mne often enco6nters an armed 36ard -(o= in addition to as0in3 "ros"ecti8e "atrons -(et(er t(e1 t(emsel8es are armed= ma1 C6ic0l1 "at t(em do-n= feelin3 for t(e telltale b6l3e of a belt or a 8est containin3 ex"losi8es. <stablis(ments t(at cannot afford a 36ard or are 6n-illin3 to "ass on t(e cost of one to c6stomers sim"l1 0ee" t(eir doors loc0ed= res"ondin3 to 0noc0s -it( a C6ic0 3lance t(ro63( t(e 3lass and an instant N6d3ment as to -(et(er t(is or t(at "erson can safel1 be admitted. %(at -o6ld (a8e been 6nima3inable a 1ear a3o is no- not onl1 ro6tine b6t reass6rin3. It (as become t(e "rice of a redefined normalit1. In t(e Anited States in t(e t-ent1 mont(s since .411 -e= too= (a8e (ad to become acc6stomed to an arra1 of ne-= often "re8io6sl1 inconcei8able sec6rit1 meas6resRin air"orts and ot(er trans"ortation (6bs= (otels and office b6ildin3s= s"orts stadi6ms and concert (alls. Alt(o63( some are more noticeable and "er(a"s more incon8enient t(an ot(ers= t(e fact remains t(at t(e1 (a8e redefined o6r o-n sense of normalit1. ,(e1 are acce"ted beca6se -e feel more 86lnerable t(an before. %it( e8er1 ne- t(reat to international sec6rit1 -e become more -illin3 to li8e -it( strin3ent "reca6tions and reflexi8e= almost 6nconscio6s -ariness. %it( e8er1 ne- t(reat= t(at is= o6r e8er1da1 life becomes more li0e IsraelBs. &1
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Readiness Good/Bad
A% &as,-ir
U.S. can5t deter a war o4er the 3ashmir
5/lle in's <ron r/nner 02
(!6ne 3= India-Pa0istan ,ensions Gra-in3 7orces A-a1 7rom Al Haeda= ,aliban 26nt= 5exis@ !acob) ,(e %all Street !o6rnal (&43= Clo6d= Robbins) re"orts= O,(e A.S. (as no ob8io6s militar1 o"tions for (eadin3 off a clas( bet-een India and Pa0istan= one t(at co6ld escalate into t(e first -ar bet-een n6clear- armed states= and lea8e millions of cas6alties. Instead= President 96s( and (is to" aides (a8e "l6n3ed into ro6nd-t(e-cloc0 di"lomac1. 96t AmericaBs "o-er to steer e8ents ma1 be limited.O ,(e !o6rnal adds= OIndia and Pa0istan (a8e a million troo"s alon3 t(e border= nearl1 (alf of t(ose facin3 off at t(e 5ine of Control di8idin3 'as(mir. ,(ere is no c(ance of A.S. troo"s 3oin3 in to sto" t(em from fi3(tin3.
&2
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Readiness Good/Bad
A% %ai3an 3ar
No ris$ 'hina will attac$ Taiwan b#c they do bt the credibility of the U.S.5s deterrent
Ha22ard 0"
(Ste"(an-= !an. 1= !o6rnal of <ast Asian St6dies= I,(e balance of "o-er= 3lobaliEation= and democrac1? international relations t(eor1 in $ort(east AsiaJ= 5exis@ !acob) %(at abo6t t(e intentions of t(e "o-ers t(at (a8e been deemed Ore8isionist=O t(at is= C(ina and $ort( 'oreaQ ,(ere is one iss6e on -(ic( t(e PRC o"enl1 "refers a c(an3e in t(e territorial stat6s C6o= and t(at is -it( res"ect to ,ai-an. ;oreo8er= t(e cross-strait conflict is one in -(ic( C(inaBs risin3 "o-er "ro8ides it o""ort6nities to exercise infl6ence. %e m6st as0 t-o C6estions? does C(ina (a8e t(e ca"abilit1 to c(allen3e t(e stat6s C6o militaril1= and -o6ld it be inclinedto do so 3i8en "ossible A.S. res"onsesQ In s(ort= N6st (o- re8isionist is C(inaQ ,(e ans-er to t(e first C6estion abo6t ca"abilities is almost certainl1 no. C(inaBs militar1 moderniEation efforts (a8e been de8oted toca"abilities t(at are of "olitical as -ell as militar1 6se in dealin3 -it( ,ai-an. 96t t(ese ca"abilities do not c6rrentl1 constit6te a credible t(reat to t(e territorial stat6s C6o= in "art beca6se of contin6in3 s(ortcomin3s in C(inese ca"acit1 to "roNect force= in "art beca6se of t(e manifest -illin3ness of bot( ,ai-an and t(e Anited Statesto balance C(ina on t(e iss6e. (3 ) ,(e second C6estion is -(et(er C(ina -o6ld be inclined to test t(ecredibilit1 of t(at commitment or to 6se its militar1 ca"abilit1 as it de8elo"s. C(inaBs a""roac( to ,ai-an encom"asses a n6mber of elements= of -(ic( militar1 le8era3e is onl1 one. ,(e C(inese leaders(i" is also rel1in3 on economic inte3ration and a O6nited frontO strate31 of reac(in3 o6t to b6siness"eo"le and factions in t(e '6omintan3= t(ePeo"le 7irst Part1= and t(e Gemocratic Pro3ressi8e Part1 itself. ,(es(ift in tactics a-a1 from t(e o8ert militar1 &3
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Readiness Good/Bad
"ress6re demonstrated d6rin3 t(e 1..#-1..& crisis is ar36abl1 N6st t(at? a s(ift in tactics. Per(a"s t(e Anited States s(o6ld be as concerned -it( inte3ration t(ro63( economic and "olitical Ostealt(O as t(ro63( more o8ert means. (3#) Fet from t(e "ers"ecti8e of t(e ris0 of militariEed crisis= t(e C(inese Comm6nist Part1 a""ears to (a8e concl6ded t(at a confrontational a""roac( to resol8in3 t(e cross-strait conflict -as co6nter"rod6cti8e. ,(e reassessment of ,ai-an strate31 no- a""ears to be "art of a -ider ree8al6ation of C(inese 3rand strate31 t(at be3an in t(e mid-1../s. (3&) Concerns abo6t C(inaBs be(a8ior (ad anta3oniEed t(e AS<A$ (Association of So6t(east Asian $ations) states -it( res"ect to t(e So6t( C(ina Sea= contrib6ted to t(e rise of t(e C(ina (a-0s in t(e AnitedStates= and stirred !a"anBs fears. ,(ese de8elo"ments occ6rred in t(e context not of A.S. -ea0ness and disen3a3ement b6t a boomin3 A.S. econom1= a rein8i3oration of 0e1 alliance relations(i"s -it( !a"an andA6stralia= and a series of reminders of t(e 6niC6e A.S. ca"acit1 to "roNect force? in t(e first G6lf %ar= in t(e ,ai-an Strait in 1..#-1..&= in t(e 9al0ans= and finall1 in IraC. ,(ese 3eo"olitical de8elo"ments 6nfolded in t(e context of a ra"idl1 3ro-in3 C(inese de"endence on t(e A.S. mar0et and on forei3n direct in8estment (7GI) more 3enerall1 (see belo-).
A% %ai3anese Prolif (1 of 2)
U.S. 7ilitary doesn5t affect Taiwan5s n clear decision
G,ol81 Press1 ( Sa$ols6' !=
(<63ene= Gar1l G.= doctoral candidates in Poli Sci > ;I,= 2ar8e1-= Prof. of P6blic Polic1 P Mr3aniEation in Poli Sci > ;I,= S"rin3= International Sec6rit1= ICome 2ome AmericaJ= Kol. 21 L ) ,ai-an is a less li0el1 candidate for n6clear "roliferation. Americas -it(dra-al from Asia -o6ld not de"ri8e ,ai-an of an American n6clear commitment= beca6se ,ai-an ne8er (ad one. <8en -it( t(e Anited States en3a3ed in Asia= ,ai-an is 86lnerable to a n6clear first stri0e 7rom C(ina? restraint -ill do not(in3 to c(an3e t(is-,ai-an seems to (a8e concl6ded t(at t(e ris0s of a C(inese n6clear stri0e do not reC6ire a n6clear deterrent. ;an1 anal1sts (a8e lon3 do6bted t(e 6tilit1 of n6clear -ea"ons in ci8il -ars= and if C(ina reall1 belie8es it Oo-nsO ,ai-an= t(en a n6clear attac0 -o6ld be li0e an attac0 on itself. V#/W ,(e bottom line for American defense "olic1 is t(at= -(ile t(e iss6e of ,ai-anBs n6clear 86lnerabilit1 is tric01= AmericaBs c6rrent militar1 "ost6re in Asia does little to relie8e an1 n6clear tension t(ere. %it( or -it(o6t American "o-er in t(e re3ion= ,ai-an -ill do -(at it (as to do to defend itself.
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Readiness Good/Bad
b. No scientists
Mi c,ell 0"
(Gere0 !.- Sr. 7ello- for Asia in t(e International Sec6rit1 Pro3ram > CSIS= I,(e $6clear ,i""in3 Poin1 %(1 States Reconsider ,(eir $6clear C(oicesJ) Second= t(e scientists -(o led ,ai-an:s n6clear "ro3ram (a8e retired or "assed a-a1= re"ortedl1 incl6din3 t(e t-o most ca"able n6clear en3ineers of t(eir da1. %(ile tec(nical 0no--(o- (as ass6redl1 been "reser8ed for a ne- 3eneration of C(6n3s(an Instit6te scientists and tec(nicians= t(e1 (a8e not (ad t(e o""ort6nit1 to en3a3e in "ractical trainin3 in t(e field. Indeed= ,ai-an obser8ers note t(at 1o6n3 en3ineers are not interested in "6rs6in3 s6c( -or0= 8ie-in3 it as irrele8ant and not Icareer-en(ancin3.JI ,ai-an scientists claim t(at a -(ole ne- 3eneration of n6clear scientists -o6ld need to be Ino6ris(ed=J reC6irin3 a s6bstantial in8estment of mone1 and time.J A.S. monitors note t(at tec(nicians (a8e not been maintainin3 t(eir ex"ertise in t(e rele8ant areas of n6clear "(1sics= incl6din3 sol8ent extraction c(emistr1= 6rani6m f6el fabrication and re"rocessin3= 6rani6m "6rification= and related as"ects of c(emical en3ineerin3= for exam"le. %ere tec(nicians indeed "6rs6in3 s6c( trainin3= t(ese monitors contend= it -o6ld be detectable.
A% %ai3anese Prolif (2 of 2)
c. No material and processing capability
Mi c,ell 0"
(Gere0 !.- Sr. 7ello- for Asia in t(e International Sec6rit1 Pro3ram > CSIS= I,(e $6clear ,i""in3 Poin1 %(1 States Reconsider ,(eir $6clear C(oicesJ) ,(at said= des"ite its clear n6clear -ea"ons ambitions and ca"abilities of t(e "ast= ,ai-an (as se8eral tec(nical and "ractical obstacles to C6ic0l1 becomin3 a n6clear "o-er toda1. 7irst= accordin3 to ex"erts= ,ai-an is in far -orse s(a"e toda1 in terms of materials and "rocessin3 ca"abilit1 t(an it -as fifteen 1ears a3o -(en it reno6nced its n6clear "ro3ram and s(6t do-n its lar3est researc( reactor and its re"rocessin3 facilities. ,(e researc( reactor is no- re"orted b1 o6tside so6rces to be entirel1 clean= a (ollo- s(ell disassembled in t(e "resence of A.S. and IA<A obser8ers= -it( 0e1 com"onents b6ried and onl1 t(e f6el "ondRand s"ent f6elRremainin3 inside 6nder 0een IA<A obser8ation. All ,ai-an "o-er reactors are d6tif6ll1 ins"ected C6arterl1. An informed A.S. so6rce confirms t(at ,ai-an "ossesses less t(an t-o 0ilo3rams of "l6toni6m and less t(an t-o tons of 6rani6m= lefto8ers from 1.++ t(at are closel1 monitored b1 t(e Anited States and t(e IA<A. ,(e island toda1 lac0s 6rani6m enric(ment or s"ent f6el re"rocessin3 ca"abilities. Its facilit1 for (andlin3 "l6toni6m (as been dismantled. Mbser8ers confirm t(at I$<R itself is &#
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Readiness Good/Bad
o6t of t(e f6el c1cle b6siness= does not do n6clear material (andlin3= (as ended its n6clear researc( "ro3rams and li3(t--ater reactor f6el de8elo"ment -or0= and foc6ses toda1 instead on t(e Nob of de8elo"in3 alternati8e ener31 so6rces.
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