Outline

Advanced Regression

A. B. C. D. E. F.

Introduction Simple linear regression Multiple linear regression Polynomial regression Non-linear regression Segmented (broken line) regression

Anuraga Jayanegara

Department of Nutrition and Feed Technology

A. Introduction
Organizational hierarchy

Quantitative nutrition Concerned with applications of mathematics to real-world problems and processes such as those in animal feed and nutrition

Mathematical modeling Modeling is a central and integral part of the scientific method Models provide a means of applying knowledge and a means of expressing theory and advancing understanding; they are simplifications, not duplications of reality Modeling is divided into: (1) empirical modeling, (2) mechanistic modeling

Department of Nutrition and Feed Technology

Department of Nutrition and Feed Technology

Empirical modeling - Process based and seek to understand causation - A mechanistic model is constructed by looking at the structure of the system under investigation, dividing it into its key components and analysing the behaviour of the whole system in terms of its individual components and their interactions with one another - Construct a description of the system at level i in terms of the components and their associated processes at level i 1 (and possibly lower) in order to gain an understanding at level i in terms of these component processes

Mechanistic modeling

- Models in which experimental data are used to quantify relationships and are based at a single level (e.g. the whole animal) in the organizational hierarchy - Based on observation and experiment, and not necessarily on any preconceived biological theory - The approach derives from the philosophy of empiricism and generaly adheres to the methodology of statistics - Empirical models are often curve-fitting exercises

Department of Nutrition and Feed Technology

Department of Nutrition and Feed Technology

B. Simple linear regression

Linear regression Model: Y = 0 + 1X +

Mathematical spectrum

Department of Nutrition and Feed Technology

Department of Nutrition and Feed Technology

Department of Nutrition and Feed Technology

Department of Nutrition and Feed Technology

Some applications

Department of Nutrition and Feed Technology

Department of Nutrition and Feed Technology

Exercise 1 - Data from Jayanegara et al. (2011), published in Animal Feed Science and Technology (AFST) - Using SPSS Software version 16.0 - Try to apply simple linear regression to the data

Department of Nutrition and Feed Technology

Department of Nutrition and Feed Technology

C. Multiple linear regression

Analysis of residuals

Model: Y = 0 + 1X1 + 2X2 + ... + nXn +

Graphical methodology to inspect residuals - No systematic dispersion of residuals - The variance of e is constant across all values of x(y) - No unusual extreme observations are apparent - The model is correct

Example: Jayanegara et al. (2009)

Department of Nutrition and Feed Technology

Department of Nutrition and Feed Technology

- Non-linear influence - Probably Xi2 or Xi3 is required in the model - It is also possible that the relationship a log, exponential or some other non-linear functions

Extreme observations

- The variance is not homogeneous (constant) - Transformation of either x or y variable is needed - Normality of errors should be checked - Apply generalized linear model
Department of Nutrition and Feed Technology

Department of Nutrition and Feed Technology

Multicollinearity Choosing the best model - Coefficient of determination (R2) - Residual mean square (MSres) - Partial F tests - Akaike information criterion (AIK)

- High correlations between independent variables - Parameter estimates are unreliable - Can be determined using Variance Inflation Factor (VIF)

- Rk2 is the coefficient of determination of the regression of independent variable k on all other independent variables in the model - If all independent variables are orthogonal (totally independent of each other Rk2 = 0 and VIF = 1 - If the independent variables are linearly dependent, then Rk2 = 1 and VIF appraoches infinity

- VIF > 10 suggests multicollinearity

Department of Nutrition and Feed Technology

Department of Nutrition and Feed Technology

Exercise 2

Thank you for your attention!

Ilmu tidak dibangun atas dasar arogansi, namun ia dibangun atas dasar kebenaran, kejujuran dan rendah hati

- Data from Jayanegara et al. (2011), published in Animal Feed Science and Technology (AFST) - Using SPSS Software version 16.0 - Try to apply the concept of multiple linear regression to the data

Department of Nutrition and Feed Technology

Department of Nutrition and Feed Technology

Department of Nutrition and Feed Technology