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1
1.0 roblem SLaLemenL
1.1 Crlgln of WaLer
1.1.1 Water is essential for life
1.1.2 Conditions for liquid water
1.1.3 Extrasolar planets
1.1.4 Origin of the Ocean

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WaLer ls essenual for llfe
1he search
for hablLable
planeLs ls
gulded by a
LemperaLure
range LhaL
allows llquld
waLer Lo
exlsL.
3
1.1.1
Figure source: ESO (2011)
Condluons for Llquld WaLer
1.1.2
-200 -100 0 100 400 500
73 173 273 373 673 773
K
C
Pluto
Neptune
Uranus
Saturn
Jupiter
Mars
Earth
Mercury
Venus
Modified from: Lunar and Planetary Institute 2012
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LxLrasolar laneLs
As aL 7
Lh
!an 2013 -
1he kepler Sclence
1eam found 2,740
poLenual planeLs
orblung 2,036 sLars.
4 of Lhe poLenual
new planeLs are less
Lhan Lwlce Lhe slze of
LarLh and orblL ln
Lhelr sun's hablLable
zone.
3 planeLs are
dlscovered everyday.
Sull no conrmauon
of llquld waLer on
any exLrasolar
planeLs.
1.1.3
Source: Johnson (2013)
Image Source: Rowe (2013)
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Crlgln of Lhe Ccean
Coollng of Lhe gas and dusL mass conformlng planeL LarLh orlglnaLed
4,600 mllllon years ago, Lhe prlmluve ocean, whlch recelved addluonal
waLer from meLeorlLes and comeLs - conLrlbuung
3
/
4
of Lhe volume of Lhe
presenL ocean.
1.1.4
nASA's SplLzer Space 1elescope recenLly found a pre-planeLary dlsk of dusk approx
1,000 llghL years away called nCC 1333-l8AS 48 drenched ln waLer vapour.
nASA, !" $% (2003)
Image : Mottar (2008)
A comeL called LlnLA8 was found Lo have a nucleus dlameLer of 1km and released
3,300,000,000 kg of waLer durlng lLs fragmenLauon.

Maklnen, !" $% (2001)
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1.2 Crlgln of llfe
1.2.1 Life originated in the ocean about 3,450 million years
ago
1.2.2 Cyanobacteria: Two key traits that changed the
Earth
1.2.3 Transformation of the Atmosphere
1.2.4 24-hour History of Life on Earth
1.2.5 Phylogenetic Tree of Life
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Llfe orlglnaLed ln Lhe ocean abouL 3,430 mllllon
years ago
1he oldesL fosslls know
are sLromaLollLes, 3,430
mllllon years old, whlch
are carbonaLed sLrucLures
bullL by mlcroblal
consorua domlnaLed by
cyanobacLerla.
1he evoluuonary orlgln of
CyanobacLerla on LarLh ls
sull unclear, so Lhe mosL
parslmonlous explanauon
maybe an exLraLerresLrlal
orlgln.

1.2.1
Image : CM Duarte
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CyanobacLerla:
1wo key LralLs LhaL changed Lhe LarLh
1.2.2
hotosynthes|s: 1he capaclLy Lo use solar
radlauon as a source of energy Lo generaLe
carbohydraLes from CC
2.
1he source of mosL
organlc mauer fuellng Lhe blosphere.


N|trogen hxanon: 1he capaclLy Lo converL nlLrogen
gas, abundanL ln Lhe aLmosphere, lnLo reduced
nlLrogen (ammonla) LhaL can be readlly lncorporaLed
lnLo amlnoaclds Lo form proLelns, Lhe machlnery of
llfe.
H
H
H
H
N + C C
R
O
O
R-Group
(variant)
Hydrogen
Carboxyl Amino
6 P
2
0 + 6 CC
2
6 C
2
+ C
6
P
12
C
6
WaLer carbon oxygen glucose
Image Source: Bergman (2007)
Image Source: Reprinted by
permission from Macmillan
Publishers Ltd: Nature (Zehr et
al), copyright (2001).
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1ransformauon of Lhe ALmosphere
1.2.3
1he LarLh was Lransformed when cyanobacLerla lnvenLed phoLosynLhesls.
Venus Larth Mars Larth
(no ||fe) (||fe)
CC
2
()

96.3 98.0 93.0 0.03
C
2
() 0.00 0.00 0.13 21.00
Surface
1emp (C)
460 240 - 340 -33 13
Images Source: WikiImages (2012)
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24-hour PlsLory of Llfe on LarLh
Mod|hed from: ues Marals (2000)
hoLosynLheuc acuvlLy ln Lhe
ocean predaLes LhaL on land by
3,000 My.

lf all llfe hlsLory can be reduced
Lo 24 hours
hoLosynLhesls sLarLed ln
Lhe ocean aL 3am
Pumans ln Lhe lasL
mlnuLes
1.2.4
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hylogenuc 1ree of Llfe
1.2.3
Some Lxc|us|ve|y mar|ne
lacozoa
CLenophora
xenoLurbelllda
Cycllophora
Mesozoa
Slpuncula
Lchlurlans
horonldlans
8rachlopoda
LchlndermaLa
ChaeLognaLha
PemlchordaLa
CephalochordaLa (sub-phylum)
1unlcaLa (sub-phylum)
Source: 8oeuf (2011)
1he Lxc|us|ve|y terrestr|a|
Cnychophora (velveL worms)
up Lo 17 of Lhe ~ 33 anlmal phyla are consldered marlne, anoLher 3 are ma[orlLy marlne,
and 12 wlLh aL leasL some marlne specles.
Cnly 1 anlmal phylum ls compleLely LerresLrlal.
Source: Zelgler (2007)
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1.3 Ccean facLs
1.3.1 Surface Area
1.3.2a Ocean Bathymetry - Trenches
1.3.2b Ocean Bathymetry - Ridges
1.3.3 Ocean Volume and Depth
1.3.4 Marine Salt
1.3.5 Nutrient Concentrations
1.3.6 Ocean pH
1.3.7 Drivers of Current, Mixing and Flow
1.3.8 Thermohaline Circulation
1.3.9 Major Surface Currents
1.3.10 Light in the Ocean
1.3.11 Sound
1.3.12 Sounds of Ocean Life

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Surface Area
1.3.1
Figure Source: Eakins and Sharman (2012)
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Ccean 8aLhymeLry - 1renches
1.3.2a
I|gure Source: CroLhe (2009)
Marlana 1rench
eru-Chlle 1rench
Aleuuan 1rench kurll-kamchaLka
1rench
uerLo 8lco 1rench
!ava 1rench
!apan 1rench
hllllplne 1rench
kermadec 1rench
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Ccean 8aLhymeLry - 8ldges
1.3.2b
I|gure Source: CroLhe (2009)
Mld-ALlanuc
8ldge
Mld-lndlan
8ldge
SouLheasL lndlan
8ldge
aclc-AnLarcuc
8ldge
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Ccean volume and uepLh
1.3.3
Surface
(m||||ons km
2
)
Depth
Vo|ume
(km
3
)
Ccean
Average
(km)
Max
(km)
Arcuc 14 .03 1.038 3 .430 14.38
ALlanuc 106 .40 3.338 8 .603 333.16
lndlan 73 .30 3.890 8 .047 283.92
aclc 169 .20 4.280 10 .911 724.18
SouLhern* 20 .33 - 7 .233 -
* 1he SouLhern Ccean's average depLh ls noL resolved due Lo poor
baLhymeLrlc coverage
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Marlne SalL
1.3.4
C|
Na
SC4
Mg
Ca
k
Cther
Ch|or|ne - SS.0
Sod|um - 30.6
Su|phate - 7.7
Magnes|um - 3.7
Ca|c|um - 1.2
otass|um - 1.1
M|nor Sa|ts - 0.7
1he salLs found ln seawaLer were released from conunenLal rocks Lhrough
weaLherlng and Lhen dellvered by rlvers Lo Lhe ocean.
1hese salLs have reached an equlllbrlum slnce abouL 600 mllllon ago, as
many of Lhe salLs have reached saLurauon.
Slx elemenLs
chlorlne (Cl
-
),
sodlum (na
+
),
sulfur (SC
4
-2
),
magneslum (Mg
+2
),
calclum (Ca
+2
), and
poLasslum (k
+
)
comprlse 99 of sea salLs,
whlch are presenL ln consLanL
proporuons ln all oceans.
Mod|hed from: ldwlrny (2006)
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nuLrlenL ConcenLrauons
1.3.3
CuL of Lhe essenual nuLrlenLs for planL growLh, avallable forms of nlLrogen, phosphorus and
lron are oen presenL ln llmlung concenLrauons ln surface waLers, where phoLosynLheuc
organlsms can lncorporaLe Lhem lnLo organlc mauer, and lncrease aL depLh, where
decomposluon processes release Lhem from organlc mauer ln mlneral form. SlllcaLe, whlch
ls an essenual nuLrlenL for dlaLoms, follows Lhe same pauern. 1he rauo beLween Lhese
elemenLs Lyplcally conform Lo a quasl-unlversal rauo, referred Lo as Lhe 8edeld rauo:
106 C: 16 n: 1 whlch reecLs Lhe blologlcal demands for Lhese elemenLs.
I|gure Cred|t: nL SubLroplcal ALlanuc by CM uuarLe
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Ccean pP
1.3.6
SeawaLer ls sllghLly alkallne, aL abouL 8.2
SeawaLer pP ls closely conLrolled by CC
2
, so hlgh CC
2
ln
seawaLer leads Lo low pP, wlLh values as much as 1 pP unlL
below normal seawaLer values.
I|gure Source: Zeebe and Cauuso (2009)
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urlvers of CurrenL, Mlxlng and llow
1.3.7
1here ls a rlver ln Lhe ocean. ln Lhe severesL droughLs lL never falls, and ln Lhe
mlghuesL oods lL never overows. lLs banks and lLs bouoms are of cold waLer, whlle
lLs currenLs are warm" - Maury, 1838, pp. 23
I|gure Source: nCAA (2008)
Wlnds lnLeracung wlLh Lhe
coasLllne generaLe currenLs
(Lkman LransporL) LhaL play an
lmporLanL role ln drlvlng
upwelllng of cold nuLrlenL rlch
waLers Lo Lhe surface -
ferullslng Lhe ocean and
Lransporung organlsms from
Lhe coasL Lo Lhe ocean.
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1hermohallne Clrculauon
1.3.8a
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http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3niR_-Kv4SM
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1hermohallne Clrculauon
1.3.8b
Figure Source: NOAA (2008)
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Ma[or Surface CurrenLs
1.3.9
Figure Source: Lumpkin (n.d.)
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1.3.10 1.3.10
LlghL ln Lhe Ccean
uv 1 43 m
8lue 1 230 m
Creen 1 113 m
8ed 1 10 m
I|gure Source: Morel !" $% (2007) - CopyrlghL (2007) by Lhe
Assoclauon for Lhe Sclences of Llmnology and Cceanography, lnc.
Image Source:
kempler and
Pedge (2012)
WaLer ls mosL LransparenL Lo blue radlauon,
LhaL peneLraLes deeper, glvlng lLs color Lo pure
waLers, and leasL LransparenL Lo red color (Lhe
color of human blood aL 20 m depLh ls blue!).

1he 1 of lrradlance lncldence aL Lhe surface
peneLraLe ln Lhe clearesL naLural waLers
(mlnlmum exponenual exuncuon coemclenL, k
d
)
found ln Lhe cenLral aclc Lo Lhe followlng
depLhs:
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Sound
Cceanlc LarLhquake
1.3.11
ropagauon ln waLer ls 3 umes fasLer Lhan
alr (1400 - 1600 m/s dependlng on Lemp,
sallnlLy, and pressure)
-As LemperaLure lncreases, Lhe
speed of sound lncreases
-As pressure lncreases, Lhe speed of
sounds lncreases
-As sallnlLy lncreases, Lhe speed of
sound lncreases
Large Shlp volcanlc 1remors
Aud|o Source: Sounds of Lhe Sea (2001a) Aud|o Source: Sounds of Lhe Sea (2001b) Aud|o Source: uS navy Sound Survelllance (2012)
I|gure Source: Woods Pole Cl (1998)
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Sounds of Ccean Llfe
1.3.12
nCC Lhe 8eluga Whale
Source: 8ldgway eL al. (2012)
Sounds of whales propagaLe hundreds of km ln Lhe ocean
Cray Whale 8lowlng
Source: !ean-Mlchel CousLeau Ccean
AdvenLures (2006)
I|gure Source: !ean-Mlchel CousLeau
Ccean AdvenLures (2006)
I|gure Source: WlLhrow (1988)
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1.4 Crlgln of Pumans
1.4.1 Evolution of the Human Brain
1.4.2 Homo sapiens origin in South Africa
1.4.3 Homo neadentalis
1.4.4 Global Spread of humans
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Lvoluuon of Lhe Puman 8raln
1.4.1
1he human braln sLarLed Lo
expand rapldly 300,000 years
before presenL, wlLh evldence
LhaL &'(' )$*+!,) arose ln
Afrlca beLween 200 and 100
Lhousand years (kyr) ago
I|gure Source: Le !ournal ue neL (2010) 29 of 89
&'(' )$*+!,) orlgln ln SouLh Afrlca
1.4.2
Modern humans arose LhroughouL Afrlca shorLly before 193,000 years ago. Around
193,000 years ago Lhe planeL enLered a long glaclal sLage LhaL lasLed unul 123,000 years
ago. Puman populauons plummeLed from abouL 10,000 Lo posslbly a few hundred.
Image Source: Coogle LarLh
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&'(' ,!$-!,"$%+)
1.4.3
1he narrauve of Lhls encounLer has deplcLed
modern humans as lnLellecLually superlor and more
ued, whlle Lhe neanderLhals (red halred) have
been deplcLed as bruLal and prlmluve.

Powever, Lhese vlews have radlcally shled due Lo
recenL ndlngs ln MaasLrlchL (8oebroeks !" $%.
2012), 1he neLherlands, and Lhe 8enzu rock shelLer
ln CeuLa, Spaln (8amos !" $%. 2011).

neandenLhals were also uslng shell beads and red
ochre for ornamenLal purposes as early as 200,000
Lo 230,000 8, [usL aL Lhe same ume modern
humans ln SouLh Afrlca dld (8oebroeks !" $%. 2012).

1hls ndlng lndlcaLes LhaL neanderLhals were also
capable of absLracL and symbollc Lhlnklng and had
sophlsucaLed soclal pracuces.
Image Source: Zolllkofer, once de Leon and uaynes (2007)
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Clobal spread of humans
1.4.4
8y abouL 60,000 years 8, moderns humans lnluaLed a mlgrauon norLh,
branchlng ln paLhways around Lhe lndlan Ccean 8lm, Lo reach AusLralla abouL
30,000 years 8, enLerlng Lurope, where Lhey encounLered Lhe decllnlng
neanderLhals, and around Lhe L. MedlLerranean. Across Lhls paLhway Lhey
remalned 8eachcombers
Image Source: Coogle LarLh
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1.3 opulauon growLh
1.5.1 Population Growth
1.5.2 Projections of population size
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opulauon CrowLh
1.5.1
Figure Source: Population Reference Bureau (1998)
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1.5.2
ro[ecuons of populauon slze
LsumaLes of Lhe LarLhs Carrylng CapaclLy
2030
2013
Figure Source: Theodore et al. (2010)
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1.6 Celllngs Lo populauon
1.6.1 Malthus Arguments
1.6.2 Trajectory of Water
Use
1.6.3 Water Embedded as
Food
1.6.4 Diet and Food
Requirements
1.6.5 Per Capita Water Use
1.6.6 Water Resource
Distribution
1.6.7 Climate and Water
Security
1.6.8 Prosperity, Diet and
Water Demands
1.6.9 Arable Land
1.6.10 Changes in Land
Use
1.6.11 Losses of Arable
Land
1.6.12 Net Changes in
Arable Land
1.6.13 Phosphorous
Depletion
1.6.14 Calculations of
Carrying Capacity:
Water
1.6.15 Educational
Factors
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MalLhus ArgumenLs'
1.6.1a
1homas MalLhus
An Lssay on Lhe rlnclple of opulauon (1798)
MalLhus nouced LhaL food
producuon lncreased
arlLhmeucally, whereas
populauon slze lncreased
geomeLrlcally and predlcLed
human populauon Lo soon reach
a celllng

Pe was wrong.
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1.6.1b
1he developmenL of synLheuc ferullzer lead Lo a hlgh lncrease
ln Lhe agrlculLural yleld:

0.24 year
-1
lncrease ln agrlculLural land
vs.
2.2 year
-1
lncrease ln agrlculLural producuon

MalLhus' argumenLs were correcL, buL he could noL anuclpaLe
Lechnologlcal developmenLs


MalLhus ArgumenLs'
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1ra[ecLory of WaLer use
1.6.2
Figure Credit: Bice (n.d.)
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WaLer Lmbedded as lood
1.6.3
Data Source: Zlmmer and 8enaulL (2003)
1989 1994 1999
km
3
/yr m
3
/cap/yr km
3
/yr m
3
/cap/yr km
3
/yr m
3
/cap/yr
Consumed waLer of
cropped producLs

3,369 697 3,626 630 3,777 632
1raded vlrLual
waLer

1,008 197 1,111 199 1,247 209
8auon of Lraded
vlrLual waLer vs.
consumed waLer
28 31 33
WaLer consumed for crop producuon and vlrLual waLer Lraded beLween counLrles
aL global scale for years 1989, 1994 and 1999 assumlng an annual lncrease of 1
ln waLer producuvlLy.
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uleL and lood 8equlremenLs
1.6.4

SubslsLence dleL: 1 m
3
/cap day
vegeLarlan dleL: 2.6 m
3
/cap day
uSA dleL: 3 m
3
/cap day
1.17 m
3
of waLer per kg graln
2 kg graln/kg sh
2 kg graln/kg poulLry
4 kg graln/kg plg
7 kg graln/kg beef
(8,000 L waLer Lo grow 1 kg beef)
Image: SybarlLe48 (2012)
I|gure: Weller (2002)
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er CaplLa WaLer use
1.6.3
er caplLa waLer use lncreased almosL 10 fold along Lhe 20
Lh
CenLury
I|gure Cred|t: 8lce (n.d.)
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22
WaLer 8esource ulsLrlbuuon
1.6.6
uneven dlsLrlbuuon (23 Lo 29,000 m
3
year
-1
person
-1)
& consumpuon of
waLer
I|gure Source: WnC (1997)
I|gure Cred|t: hllllppe 8ekacewlcz (2000)
43 of 89
CllmaLe and WaLer SecurlLy
1.6.7
CllmaLe change wlll reduce waLer securlLy (e.g. droughLs)
I|gure Source: 8lack - 88C (2010)
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23
rosperlLy, uleL and WaLer uemands
1.6.8a
lorecasLed 23 lncrease ln meaL consumpuon
Average An|ma| roduct consumpnon (kCa|]person]day)
0 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 1,400 1,600
$200
$400
$800
$1,600
$3,200
$6,400
$12,800
$23,600
$31,200
GD per
cap|ta
()
!apan
uSA
Cermany
8razll
Chlna
aklsLan
lndla
8ussla
I|gure Mod|hed from: Mauhew Mlllar, Manager of Consulung Cperauons for Pubbard ueclslon 8esearch (2010)
43 of 89
rosperlLy, uleL and WaLer uemands
1.6.8b
lorecasLed 10 lncrease ln calorle lnLake
80
70
60
30
40
30
20
10
0
1964 -
1996
1997 -
1999
2030
Mlddle LasL &
norLh Afrlca
Sub-Saharan
Afrlca
Laun Amerlca &
Lhe Carlbbean
LasL Asla
SouLh Asla
Data Source: WPC
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24
Arable Land
1.6.9
Figure Source: The Global Education Project (n.d.)
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Changes ln Land use
1.6.10a
Image Source: UNEP (2011)
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23
1.6.10b
Figure Source: Hooke, Martin-Duque, and Pedraza
(2012)
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Losses of Arable Land
6.2 of LoLal land converLed lnLo urban,
lndusLrlal and lnfrasLrucLure by 2007
Puman lnduced degraded area ():
1.6.11
Source: lAC (n.d.)
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26
neL Changes ln Arable Land
new arable land, from converslon of Lroplcal foresLs, do noL
compensaLe losses, so Lhere ls a gross decllne ln global arable
land.
1.6.12
!""#
!"$#
!"%#
!"&#
!'##
!'"#
!'$#
!'%#
!'&#
!$##
!$"#
#
#(#)
#(!
#(!)
#("
#(")
#('
#(')
#($
#($)
!
*
%
!
!
*
%
%
!
*
+
!
!
*
+
%
!
*
&
!
!
*
&
%
!
*
*
!
!
*
*
%
"
#
#
!
"
#
#
%
!"#$
%# &"$
'#&()#
%#
*+,,,-,,,.
Data Source: lAC (2012)
31 of 89
hosphorous uepleuon
1.6.13
hosphorus producuon ls predlcLed Lo peak around 2030 and currenL global phosphaLe
reserves may be depleLed ln 30-100 years (Cordell eL al. 2009)
I|gure Source: Clobal hosphorus neLwork (2010)
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27
Calculauons of Carrylng CapaclLy: WaLer
1.6.14
8enewable freshwaLer ~ 40,000 km
3
yr
-1

Avallable freshwaLer ~ 9,000 - 14,00 km
3
yr
-1

er caplLa waLer use ~ 900 m
3
person
-1
yr
-1

Maxlmum populauon
LhaL can be supporLed ~ 8,000 - 12,000 mllllon


keference: Cohen (1993) & lAC (2006)
1.6.14a
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Calculauons of Carrylng CapaclLy: WaLer
Calculauons above are upper esumaLes as:
Assumes waLer and people Lo be evenly dlsLrlbuLed ln Lhe world.
Assumes all waLer Lo be avallable for food producuon (e.g. lndusLrlal
use lncreaslng rapldly).
Assumes mlnlmum dleLary requlremenLs.
uoes noL accounL for osclllauons ln resources, such as derlved from
droughLs, cllmaLe change, eLc.
1.6.14b
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28
Lducauonal lacLors
1.6.13
1he fo||ow|ng factors have been shown to modu|ate human
popu|anon growth:

lace of resldence: urban (lower growLh) vs. rural. opulauon ln clues
exceeded LhaL ln rural areas globally, for Lhe rsL ume, ln 2011.

Lducauon: on average lower growLh raLe wlLh hlgher educauon (Lhe
relauonshlp beLween female educauon and ferullLy ls parucularly sLrong).

ro[ecuons onLo Lhe second half of Lhe 21
sL
CenLury are sLrongly modulaLed
by Lhese facLors, buL hlgher educauon and urban areas are assoclaLed wlLh
a greaLer consumpuon of resources.


Source: LuLz and Samlr (2010)
33 of 89
1.7 Collapses
1.7.1 Introduction
1.7.2 Mesopotamia
1.7.3 Mayan Civilization Collapse
1.7.4 Rapa Nui
1.7.5 Regional Change in the Roman Empire
1.7.6 Historians of Global Change
1.7.7 The Vulnerability of Complex Societies

36 of 89
11/04/13
29
lnLroducuon
1.7.1
1he celllngs Lo populauon growLh we are approachlng aL Lhe global
scale have been experlenced aL Lhe pasL ln speclc reglons,
someumes wlLh devasLaung consequences for enure clvlllzauons.

An examlnauon of pasL collapses can lllusLraLe how Lhe depleuon of
naLural resources lead Lo vulnerablllues LhaL can generaLe lnsLablllLy
ln socleues.
37 of 89
MesopoLamla
1he Sumerlan clvlllzauon dlsappeared 4,000
years ago.
Cunelform Lables documenL deforesLauon, soll
sallnlzauon, llmlLed waLer supply and
overpopulauon, conduclve Lo famlne were
recorded as belng Lhe drlvers of Lhe collapse of
Lhe Sumerlan clvlllzauon, Lhe rsL documenLed
example of Lhe lmpacL of resource supply on Lhe
collapse of a clvlllzauon.
1.7.2
38 of 89
11/04/13
30
Mayan Clvlllzauon
Collapse

Plgh populauon
denslLy LogeLher wlLh
llmlLed waLer supply
(reservolrs holdlng
enough waLer for 18
monLhs ln Lhe gure)
rendered Lhe Mayan
clvlllzauon hlghly
vulnerable Lo droughLs


1.7.3a
39 of 89
Peterson, LC & Haug, GH 2005, Climate
and the Collapse of Maya Civilization: A
series of multi-year droughts helped to
doom an ancient culture. American
Scientist, vol. 93 no. 4, pp. 322 - 329.
[March 21, 2013].
Mayan Clvlllsauon Collapse
1.7.3b
I|gure Source: Paug !" $%/ (2003)
60 of 89
11/04/13
31
8apa nul
1.7.4
Image: uubouls (2007)
Source : PunL (2007)
eople kepL cumng down Lhe Lrees
fasLer Lhan Lhey could regeneraLe,
'1he people used land for gardens and wood
for fuel, canoes, and houses and of course, for
lugglng sLaLues. As foresL dlsappeared, Lhe
lslanders ran ouL of umber and rope Lo
LransporL and erecL Lhelr sLaLues. Llfe became
more uncomforLable - sprlngs and sLreams
drled up, and wood was no longer avallable for
res.. As we Lry Lo lmaglne Lhe decllne of
LasLer's
clvlllzauon, we ask ourselves, 'Why dldn'L Lhey look around, reallze whaL Lhey were dolng, and sLop before lL
was Loo laLe? WhaL were Lhey Lhlnklng when Lhey cuL down Lhe lasL palm Lree?' - ulamond (1993, pp. 68).
lnLroduced raLs conLrlbuLed Lo Lhe decllne
1helr populauon grew Lo 2-3mllllon wlLhln a few years.
ALe Lhe seeds of Lhe 012$!$ Lree (abundanL foresL) reduclng lL's recrulLmenL -
unable Lo regeneraLe wlLh deforesLauon pressure as well
8aLs may also have predaLed sea blrds, small mammals and oLher planLs on Lhe
lsland
61 of 89
8eglonal Change ln Lhe 8oman Lmplre
1.7.3a
Lar|y reports of changes due to excess|ve resource
use |n the Med|terranean
PlsLorlc 8eporLs: (PerodoLo, olybos, !ullus Caesarm SallusL, SLrabo, Llvlo,
1clLo, eLc.) reporL on a weL cllmaLe, more ralny ln summer and wlLh lush
vegeLauon ln n. Afrlca.
8eporLs on agrlculLural pracuces and yleld: (CaLo el vle[o, varro, Columella)
8eporLs on naLural hlsLory, fauna and ora (1eophrasLos, llnlo el vle[o,
Lolomaeus)
Archaeloglc evldence (Lepus Magna, CaLhago, 1hugga, Culcul, Cyrenalca,
almyra, Pellopolls, 8rldges, aqueducLs, eLc.).
opulauon slze and dlsLrlbuuon.
Comp||ed by: 8eale & ulrmeyer (2000)
62 of 89
11/04/13
32
1.7.3b
Lar|y c||mate change |n the Med|terranean
Source: 8eale & Shukla (2000)
8aLhs, brldges, eLc., were presenL ln 8oman clues ln Lhe mlddle LasL (e.g
almyra clLy, Syrlan deserL) where Lhere ls no waLer aL presenL, buL was
accordlng Lo 8oman hlsLorlans a prosperous and ferule reglon.
lnformauon on Lhe presence of foresLs, elephanLs and oLher anlmals LhaL ls
lndlcauve of a much smaller Saharan deserL Lhan presenL.
8eglonal Change ln Lhe 8oman Lmplre
63 of 89
8eglonal Change ln Lhe 8oman Lmplre
1.7.3c
ollucan crlses and abandoned clues.
Conc|us|on: Large-sca|e |and Degradanon |ead to reg|ona|
c||mate change w|th |mportant soc|o-econom|c consequences
|n the reg|on.
Lvldence of a humld cllmaLe, assoclaLed wlLh lush vegeLauon ln Lhe
MedlLerranean basln, parucularly ln n. Afrlca.
Lvldence for ma[or changes ln land use (deforesLauon, lnLenslve
agrlculLure, eLc.) - assoclaLed wlLh rapld populauon growLh - LhaL led Lo
deserucauon
64 of 89
11/04/13
33
1.7.6
1he reasons why some pasL
socleues have gone and some
remaln.

SocloculLural and economlc
changes are muludlmenslonal buL
are essenually llnked Lo
envlronmenLal lssues.

Lcologlcal ueLermlnlsm

Lcologlcal dlsasLers can ellmlnaLe
clvlllzauons
PlsLorlans of Clobal Change
!ared ulamond
63 of 89
1.7.7
1he vulnerablllLy of Complex Socleues
1he relauons beLween Lhe complexlLy and Lhe collapse
1he ablllLy Lo deal wlLh soclal problems ls
relaLed Lo Lhe lncreaslng complexlLy of
lnsuLuuons. 1he collapse of socleues ls Lo
a large exLenL a consequence of Lhelr
growlng complexlLy.

1he lndusLrlal and Lechnologlcal advances
were made aL Lhe expense of lncreased
complexlLy renderlng
socleues vulnerable Lo
dlsrupuons.
!oseph 1alnLer
66 of 89
11/04/13
34
1.8 8esource use
1.8.1 Resource Use
1.8.2 Mineral Resources
1.8.3 Synthetic Chemicals
1.8.4 Fertilizer
1.8.5 Total World Oil Production
1.8.6 Paper Consumption
1.8.7 Food Production
1.8.8 Plastic Production
1.8.9 Human Footprint
1.8.10 Global Trajectory
1.8.11 Global Distribution
67 of 89
8esource use
1.8.1
1he use of resources by humanlLy ls dependenL on
populauon slze, per caplLa resource use and Lhe accesslblllLy
of resources.

All of Lhese have lncreased slnce Lhe lndusLrlal revoluuon,
and Lechnologlcal developmenLs are rendered resources LhaL
could noL be accessed Lo be now avallable.
68 of 89
11/04/13
33
Mlneral 8esources
1.8.2
69 of 89
http://gerdaumarketupdate.com/journal/2012/5/3/
weekly-market-update-may-3-2012.html
SynLheuc Chemlcals
1he ulrLy uozen
Aldrln & uleldrln
Chlordane
uu1
Lndrln
Mlrex
PepLachlor
Pexachlorobenzene
C8s
1oxaphene
uloxlns and lurans
1.8.3
I|gure Source: AlLAS 2013
I|gure Source: C8lu-Ardenal (unL) n.d
70 of 89
11/04/13
36
lerullzer
1.8.4
I|gure Source: Luropean
LnvlronmenL Agency (2007)
71 of 89
Cas and Cll
72
1.8.3
I|gure Source: Wlsser (n.d.)
72 of 89
11/04/13
37
1.8.6
aper consumpuon
Clobal per caplLa consumpuon of paper has lncreased by almosL half slnce 1980
I|gure Source: uefra (2006).
73 of 89
1.8.7
lood roducuon
Source: 8rown (n.d.)
74 of 89
11/04/13
38
lasuc producuon
1.8.8
1930 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020
300,000
230,000
200,000
130,000
100,000
30,000
Mtonne
Wor|d |asnc
roducnon
Luropean |asnc
roducnon
I|gure Mod|hed from: lasucsLurope (2012).
73 of 89
Puman looLprlnL
1.8.9
Image Source: lnsuLuL Lscola Les vlnyes (2012)
Cur producuon and consumpuon ls
llmlLed by Lhe LarLh's resources and lL's
ablllLy Lo absorb our wasLe.
An ecologlcal (or human) fooLprlnL ls a
measure of how susLalnable our
acuvlues are.
ln 2007, humanlLy needed 1.3
laneL LarLhs accommodaLe our
llfesLyles. We were consumlng
resources aL 1.3 umes Lhe raLe Lhe
LarLh could absorb our wasLe &
replenlsh lLs resources.
1he amounL of maLerlal consumed by a person (Lonnes per year) ls dlvlded by Lhe
yleld of Lhe land or sea area (annual Lonnes per hecLare) from whlch lL was
harvesLed, or where lLs wasLe maLerlal was absorbed. 1he resulLanL number of
hecLares are Lhen converLed Lo global hecLares. 1he sum of Lhe global hecLares
needed Lo supporL Lhe resource consumpuon and absorb Lhelr CC
2
emlsslons ls
LhaL person's Lcologlcal looLprlnL.
76 of 89
11/04/13
39
Clobal 1ra[ecLory
1.8.10
I|gure Source: 1he new Lconomlcs loundauon (2012).
Cood
1.78
Mlddllng
1.78 - 3.36
oor
3.36 - 7.12
ueep red
7.12
77 of 89
Clobal ulsLrlbuuon
1.8.11
I|gure Source: LnvlronmenLal roLecuon AuLhorlLy (n.d.)
78 of 89
11/04/13
40
1.9 Clobal change
1.9.1 Global Change
1.9.2 Drivers
1.9.3 Evidence: Greenhouse Gases
1.9.4 Evidence: Global Contaminant Distributions
1.9.5 Growth in Mercury Pollution
1.9.6 Ozone Layer
1.9.7 Extinction Rates
1.9.8 Nitrogen Cycling
1.9.9 Water Cycling
1.9.10 Annual Food Price Indices

79 of 89
Clobal Change
3(*$4" '5 61($, $478+"9 ', "6! *:'4!))!) "6$" ;'8!:,
"6! 51,47',+,; '5 "6! <$:"6 =9)"!(.
1he Lerm !"#$%& refers Lo Lhe facL LhaL Lhe
regulauon of Lhe funcuonlng of Lhe LarLh SysLem has
now changed due Lo Lhe lnLroducuon of conLrol
mechanlsms - Lechnology - LhaL slmply dld noL exlsL
over mosL of Lhe LarLhs hlsLory (e.g. ClCs and
Czone, Paber reacuon and Lhe n cycle, eLc.).
1.9.1
80 of 89
11/04/13
41
urlvers
81 of 89
1.9.2
Clobal change ls a consequence of lncreased
resource use, whlch ls, ln Lurn, drlven by Lhe
producL of Lhe lncrease ln populauon slze and
Lhe lncrease ln per caplLa consumpuon, each
lncreased by abouL 3 Lo 10 fold over Lhe 20
Lh

CenLury.
1he resulL ls a double exponenual growLh ln
resource use.
Lvldence: Creenhouse Cases
1.9.3
I|gure Source: 1he uS Clobal Change 8esearch rogram (2009)
82 of 89
11/04/13
42
Lvldence: Clobal ConLamlnanL ulsLrlbuuons
83
1.9.4
I|gure Source: unL (2013)
83 of 89
84 of 89
CrowLh ln Mercury olluuon
I|gure Source: unL (2013)
1.9.5
11/04/13
43
Czone Layer
85 of 89
1.9.6
Figure Source: UNEP/WMO (2010)
Lxuncuon 8aLes
86 of 89
CurrenLly several mllllon populauons and 3,000-
30,000 specles go exuncL annually. robably aL
leasL 230,000 specles wenL exuncL ln Lhe lasL
cenLury, and 10-20 umes LhaL many are expecLed
Lo dlsappear Lhls cenLury. CurrenL exuncuon
raLes are 30-300 umes background and are
lncreaslng.
1.9.7
Source: Woodruff (2001)
11/04/13
44
nlLrogen Cycllng
87 of 89
1.9.8
Figure Source: Reay & Hogan (2010)
WaLer Cycllng
88 of 89
1.9.9
Figure Source:
UNEP 2013b
11/04/13
43
Clobal lood rlces
89 of 89
1.9.10
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