BES Tutorial Sample Solutions, S1/12

WEEK 7 TUTORIAL EXERCISES (To be discussed in the week starting

April 16)

1. From several years records, a fish market manager has determined that the
weight of deep sea bream sold in the market (X) is approximately normally
distributed with a mean of 420 grams and a standard deviation of 80 grams.
Assuming this distribution will remain unchanged in the future, calculate the
expected proportions of deep sea bream sold over the next year weighing

(a) between 300 and 400 grams.
P(Suu < X < 4uu) = P _
Suu -42u
8u
< Z <
4uu -42u
8u
]
= P(-1.S < Z < -u.2S)
= P(u < Z < 1.S) -P(u < Z < u.2S)
= u.4SS2 -u.u987
= u.SS4S

(b) between 300 and 500 grams.
P(Suu < X < Suu) = P _
Suu -42u
8u
< Z <
Suu -42u
8u
]
= P(-1.S < Z < 1)
= P(u < Z < 1.S) +P(u < Z < 1)
= u.4SS2 +u.S41S
= u.774S

(c) more than 600 grams.
P(X > 6uu) = P _Z >
6uu -42u
8u
]
= P(Z > 2.2S)
= u.S - P(u < Z < 2.2S)
= u.S - u.4878 = u.u122



2. In a certain large city, household annual incomes are considered
approximately normally distributed with a mean of $40,000 and a standard
deviation of $6,000. What proportion of households in the city have an
annual income over $30,000? If a random sample of 60 households were
selected, how many of these households would we expect to have annual
incomes between $35,000 and $45,000?

Ict X bc onnuol bouscbolJ incomc tbcn X~N(4uuuu, 6uuu
2
)

P(X > Suuuu) = P _Z >
Suuuu - 4uuuu
6uuu
]
= P(Z > -1.67)
= u.S + P(u < Z < 1.67)
= u.S + u.4S2S
= u.9S2S

So 95.25% of households in the city have annual incomes greater than
$30,000.

P(SSuuu < X < 4Suuu) = P _

SSuuu -4uuuu
6uuu
< Z <
4Suuu - 4uuuu
6uuu
]
= P(-u.8S < Z < u.8S)
= 2P(u < Z < u.8S)
= 2 u.2967
= u.S9S4

Therefore we expect 0.5934(60)36 households in the sample to have annual

incomesbetween$35,000and$45,000.

3. What is the 25
th
percentile of the normal distribution N(10, 9)? Hint: Find
the value, z, of a standardized normal random variable, Z, that is such that
P(Z < z) = u.2S and then unstandardize to get the equivalent value for a
N(10,9) variate.

Let x be the required percentile. First find z, the 25

th
percentile of a standard
normal.

P(Z < z) = u.2S

Ibus P(Z > -z) = u.2S (by symmctry o normol)
onJ bcncc P(u < Z < -z) = u.S - .2S = u.2S
onJ inolly rom tbc toblcs -z = u.67 onJ z = -u.67

As X~N(1u,9) it ollows tbot tbc tronsormcJ 2Stb pcrccntilc is:

x - 1u
S
= -u.67
implying x = 7.99

4. In a certain city it is estimated that 40% of households have access to the
internet. A company wishing to sell services to internet users randomly
chooses 150 households in the city and sends them advertising material. For
the households contacted:
(a) Calculate the probability that less than 60 households have internet
access?

Let X be the number of households contacted that have internet access. Then
assume X is a binomial random variable with n=150 and p=0.4. Because n is
largewecanusethenormalapproximationtothebinomialwhere:

p = np = 1Su u.4 = 6u
o
2
= np(1 -p) = 1Su u.4 u.6 = S6

Thusincorporatingthecontinuitycorrectionweneedtofind:

P(X
B
< 6u) = P(X
B
S9) = P(X
N
< S9.S)
= P _Z <
S9.S -6u
6
]
= P(Z < -u.u8S)
= u.S -P(u < Z < u.u8S)
= u.S -u.uS19 = u.4681

(b) Calculate the probability that between 50 and 100 (inclusive)
households have internet access?

P(Su X
B
1uu) = P(49.S < X
N
< 1uu.S)
= P _
49.S -6u
6
Z <
1uu.S -6u
6
]
= P(-1.7S < Z < 6.7S)
= P(u < Z < 1.7S) +P(u < Z < 6.7S)
= u.4S99 +u.S = u.9S99

(c) There is a probability of 0.9 that the number of households with
internet access equals or exceeds what value?

P(X
B
x) = u.9
Ibcn using tbc normol opproximotion P(X
N
> x -u.S) = u.9
bcncc P _Z >
x - u.S -6u
6
] = u.9
or P _u < Z < -
x - 6u.S
6
] = u.4
implying -
x - 6u.S
6
= 1.28 or x = S2.82

There is a 90% chance that the number of households with internet access is
52ormore.