Waste Management 27 (2007) 858868 www.elsevier.

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Modeling of urban solid waste management system: The case of Dhaka city
M.A. Suan a, B.K. Bala
b

b,*

a Beximco Synthetics Ltd., Kabirpur, Savar, Dhaka-1344, Bangladesh Department of Farm Power and Machinery, Bangladesh Agricultural University, Mymensingh 2202, Bangladesh

Accepted 24 April 2006 Available online 15 June 2006

Abstract This paper presents a system dynamics computer model to predict solid waste generation, collection capacity and electricity generation from solid waste and to assess the needs for waste management of the urban city of Dhaka, Bangladesh. Simulated results show that solid waste generation, collection capacity and electricity generation potential from solid waste increase with time. Population, uncleared waste, untreated waste, composite index and public concern are projected to increase with time for Dhaka city. Simulated results also show that increasing the budget for collection capacity alone does not improve environmental quality; rather an increased budget is required for both collection and treatment of solid wastes of Dhaka city. Finally, this model can be used as a computer laboratory for urban solid waste management (USWM) policy analysis. 2006 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

1. Introduction Solid waste consists of the highly heterogeneous mass of discarded materials from the urban community, as well as the more homogeneous accumulation of agricultural, industrial and mining wastes. The principal sources of solid wastes are residences, commercial establishments, institutions, industrial and agricultural activities. Domestic, commercial, and light industrial wastes are considered together as urban wastes. The main constituents of urban solid wastes are similar throughout the world, but the quantity generated, the density and the proportion of constituents vary widely from country to country, and from town to town within a country according to the level of economic development, geographic location, weather and social conditions. In general, it has been found that as the personal income rises, kitchen wastes decline but the paper, metals

Corresponding author. Tel.: +880 91 55518; fax: +880 91 55810. E-mail address: bkbalabau@yahoo.com (B.K. Bala).

and glass wastes increase; the total weight generated increases but the density of the wastes declines (Rao, 1992). Several disposal methods are being used in various parts of the world and the most prominent of these are: open dumping, sanitary landlling, incineration and composting. Sanitary landlling is the main method used in industrialized countries and open dumping is very common in developing countries like Bangladesh and India. Open dumping of solid wastes is practiced extensively in Bangladesh because it is cheap and requires no planning. Generally, the low-lying areas and outskirts of the towns and cities are used for this purpose. Sanitary landlling is a controlled engineered operation, designed and operated according to acceptable standards. It may be dened as a controlled method of disposing of refuse onto or into land while minimizing nuisances or hazards to public health or safety. The operation is carried out without environmental damage and in areas already spoiled or in need of restoration. Incineration involves the burning of solid wastes at high temperatures. If incineration is to become an economical method for solid waste disposal, useful materials and

0956-053X/$ - see front matter 2006 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. doi:10.1016/j.wasman.2006.04.011

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energy must be recovered by the process. Heat can be recovered by putting a waste heat boiler or some other recovery device on an existing solid waste incinerator. The heat so recovered can be utilized for generating electricity or for space heating purposes. In general, solid waste has about one-third the heating value of coal, but unlike coal it has a very low sulfur content. All types of incinerators produce air pollution. The contributions to global warming by incineration is much less than those of landll but comparable to those by composting (Sonesson et al., 1997, 2000). In contrast to a sanitary landll, composting of refuse is an aerobic method of decomposing solid waste. Many types of microorganisms already present in the waste biostabilize the organic matter in the waste and produce a soil conditioner as a result of the process. The organisms include bacteria, which predominate at all stages, fungi, which often appear after the rst week, and actinomycetes, which assist during the nal stages. Solid wastes contain signicant amounts of valuable materials like steel, aluminum, copper and other metals which, if they are recovered and reused, would reduce the volume of the wastes to be collected and at the same time would yield signicant salvage and resale income. In addition, better reclamation techniques will help to save valuable natural resources and turn wastes, which could be dangerous, into useful products. Some important solid wastes that have been successfully reclaimed are paper, plastics, glass and metals. In Bangladesh, analysis of the composition of the urban solid waste is not generally carried out on a regular basis by the municipalities. The results of composition analyses of the solid waste generated in Dhaka city are shown in Table 1. On average, constituents are 18% inorganic matter and 82% organic matter (Khan, 1999). The density of domestic solid waste of Dhaka city is 0.35 tonne/m3 (Alam, 2001). Many studies have been reported on strategies to achieve municipal solid waste management (Pawan et al.,

1997; Salvato, 1992; Kum et al., 2005). Linear programming, inputoutput analysis, expert system (a methodology that uses expert knowledge to solve problems of a complex system) and system dynamics have been applied to aid decision makers in planning and management of solid waste management systems (Everett and Modak, 1996; Clayton and McCarl, 1979; Barsi, 2000; Ming et al., 2000; Heikki, 2000; Mashayekhi, 1992; Sudhir et al., 1997). More recently, Dyson and Chang (2005) emphasized the capability of system dynamics for prediction of solid waste generation. Alam and Bole (2001) analyzed the electrical energy recovery potential from urban solid waste of Dhaka city and its economic feasibility and emphasized that the 1.28 million tonnes of municipal waste generated annually in the Dhaka city could potentially produce about 71 MW of electricity. Heating values of solid wastes depend on the types of wastes and moisture contents of the wastes. Themelis et al. (2002) reported that the heating values of the dierent types of wastes decrease as the moisture content increases. Fig. 1 shows the variation of the heating values of dierent types of solid wastes based on Themelis et al. (2002). The heating values of residential, industrial and commercial wastes are 9.20 MJ/kg, 5.67 MJ/kg and 6.94 MJ/kg and the corresponding percentages of the wastes by weight are 44.2%, 14.7% and 17.7%, respectively with street sweeping of 23.4% (Alam and Bole, 2001). Since street sweepings are not under consideration, the new percentages of wastes in the above sectors are 57.70%, 19.19% and 23.11%, respectively. Based on these data, the caloric value of the solid waste generated in Dhaka city is estimated as 8.0 MJ/kg. The purpose of this study is to develop a system dynamics model of solid waste management systems to predict solid waste generation and electrical energy recovery from

Table 1 Composition of solid waste of Dhaka (wt%) Constituent Khan (1999) Residential Plastic Paper Glass Metal Textile Food stu and kitchen Food waste Wood/grass Garden waste Ash/soil Other Total 1.74 5.68 6.38 1.83 84.37 100.00 Industrial 1.48 7.22 10.22 1.59 79.49 100.00 Ahmed and Rahman (2000) 5 4 0.25 0.13 70 0.16 11 5 95.54 Alam (2001) 2.3 10.0 1.4 0.5 18.0 2.1 40.0 23.0 97.3 Fig. 1. Variation of heating values of dierent types of solid wastes with moisture contents (Source. Themelis et al. (2002)).

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the solid waste of the Dhaka city and also to assess dierent policy options for solid waste management. 2. System dynamics modeling of urban solid waste management system Planning of USWM has to address several interdependent issues such as public health, the environment, the electricity generation potential from the urban solid waste generated, and present and future costs to society. The USWM is a complex, dynamic and multi-faceted system depending not only on available technology but also upon economic and social factors. Experimentation with an actually existing urban solid waste management system containing economic, social, technological, environmental and political elements may be costly and time consuming or totally unrealistic. Simulating an USWM by a computer model one can conduct a series of experiments. Computer models clearly are of great value to understand the dynamics of such complex systems (Bala, 1999). Owing to the intrinsically complex nature of USWM problems, it is advantageous to implement USWM policy options only after careful modeling analyses. The analysis involves the use of dierent modeling techniques such as optimization, econometrics, inputoutput analysis, multi-objective analysis and system dynamics simulation. Forresters system dynamics methodology provides a foundation for constructing computer models to do what the human mind cannot do (Forrester, 1968), that is rationally analyze the structure, the interactions and mode of behavior of complex socio-economic, technological, and environmental systems. Hence, the system dynamics approach is the most appropriate technique to handle this type of complex problem. The methodology used in the development of the solid waste management model discussed in this paper is system dynamics. A detailed description of the methodology is given in Forrester (1968) and Bala (1998, 1999). It has been used in many areas including global environmental sustainability (Forrester, 1971; Meadows et al., 1992), environmental sustainability in an agricultural development project (Saysel et al., 2002), modeling strategies for promoting agricultural development (Drew, 1990), regional sustainable development issues (Saeed, 1994; Bach and Saeed, 1992), environmental management (Mashayekhi, 1990; Sudhir et al., 1997) and ecological modeling (Saysel and Barlas, 2001). System dynamics methodology is based on the feedback concept of control theory and the feedback loops simulate dynamic behavior (Bala, 1999). Two basic building blocks in system dynamics studies are stock or level and ow or rate. Stock variables (symbolized by rectangles) are state variables and stocks represent accumulation in the system. Flow variables (symbolized by valves) are the rate of change in the stock variables and ows represent the activities and decision function in the system. Converters (represented by circles) are intermediate variables used for

miscellaneous calculations. Finally, the connectors (represented by simple arrows) represent cause and eect links within the model structure (Bala, 1999). The ow diagram of the urban solid waste management system is shown in Fig. 2. The original computer model was developed as a part of a thesis (Suan, 2001) and it was constructed using STELLA Research software (HPS, 1996) designed for dynamic feedback modeling of complex systems. Full details are available in Suan (2001). The model described here is a theoretical framework for examining urban solid waste generation and its management system in Dhaka city and also to assess electrical energy generation potential to meet the electrical energy consumption requirements of Dhaka city. There is a large gap between the waste generation and management system, which results environmental pollution. Both the uncollected waste and unhygienic disposal of waste create environmental pollution, which gives rise to increase public annoyance and anger and hence public concern develops to reduce waste generation and source separation of recyclable waste. But, waste generation increases with increased population and GDP, as well as per-capita income. Hence, the electrical energy generation potential from the urban solid waste also increases. On the other side, composite index shows the lack of waste collection (uncleared waste). A higher composite index increases management perception, which increases fund allocation for solid waste management. The composite index is dened as: Composite Index w1 UNCL w2 UNTR POPR 1 where w1, w2 is the weighting factor (w1 = 0.5 and w2 = 0.5), UNCL is the ratio of the uncleared waste at any point of time to the base value, UNTR is the ratio of the untreated waste at any point of time to the base value, POPR is the ratio of the population at any point of time to the base value. A higher value of composite index indicates a progressive deterioration in health and environmental quality. In Dhaka city, normal practice is that the householders put their solid wastes at dierent collection points on the street. The Dhaka city corporations personnel collect the wastes at a particular time and transport them to the disposal site. The disposal method is open dumping in an unhygienic manner. The Dhaka city corporation does not undertake any sanitary landlling, incineration, composting or recycling. A portion of the recyclable solid waste of Dhaka city is used in recycling industries (plastics, paper, glass, metals, etc.), but this amount is very small and is undertaken informally. Although the Dhaka city corporation does not have any electricity generation plant fueled by urban solid waste nor any scientic disposal facilities, the electrical energy generation potential from urban solid waste at Dhaka city and the controlled disposal of a portion of collected wastes as

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Fig. 2(a). STELLA ow diagram of the system dynamics model of urban solid waste management system.

landll, and treatment of waste (incineration, composting, etc.) are included in this model. The heating value of the generated waste is considered to be 8.0 MJ/kg. Figs. 2(a)

and 2(b) show the STELLA ow diagram of a system dynamics model used to analyze the Planning for USWM of the Dhaka city.

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Fig. 2(b). STELLA ow diagram of the system dynamics model of urban solid waste management system.

The model consists of two sectors and these are waste generation and waste management. The waste generation sector in Fig. 2(a) consists of population, solid waste generation, electricity generation, public concern, composite index and stock levels of cleared, uncleared, treated, untreated, recyclable and non-recyclable wastes, while the

waste management sector consists of waste collection, economics of waste collection and waste treatment issues. The waste generation sector and waste management sector have interrelations and these two sectors are interconnected by STELLA symbol ghost, a means of tidy presentation of interconnections. For example, dotted disposal in

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Fig. 2(b) is the ghost of disposal in Fig. 2(a), and it shows the connection of disposal to landll rate. 3. Results and discussion The authors considered various ways of validating a system dynamics model, such as comparing the model results with historical data, checking whether the model generates plausible behavior and checking the quality of parameter values. Some of the parameters have been derived from studies in other areas and some were the results of expert guesswork. To judge the plausibility of the model, the behavior of the key variables in the base run were examined by the authors. Computer projections of population, solid waste generation, waste collection capacity, and electrical energy generation potential from the solid waste for Dhaka city are shown in Fig. 3. Dhaka city had a population of 4.375 million in 1995, approaching 12.082 million by 2025. The population growth rate of the city is higher than the average value of the whole country. This might be due to the fact that for job opportunities or other attractive factors, there is a rapid population inow into the city. More population means more waste, and more waste means more resources for waste management and more potential for electricity generation. The waste generation increases from 1.027 million tonnes in 1995 to 4.257 million tonnes in 2025. An estimate of waste generation is crucially important to collection services and disposal facilities. The collection capacity needed increases from 483,000 tonnes in 1995 to 2,412,500 tonnes in 2025. The existing collection capacity is far below the needed collection capacity. However, it is interesting to note that the electrical energy generation potential increases from 456,900 MWh in 1995 to 1,894,400 MWh in 2025, and the electrical energy recovery

from urban solid waste generation of Dhaka city can supply a signicant portion of the consumption requirement of electrical energy of the city. Hence, adoption of the policy for electricity from urban solid waste of Dhaka city should be dictated by the economy of adoption of the technology of electricity generation from the solid waste and environmental implications. Fig. 4 shows simulated uncleared waste, untreated waste, composite index and public concern for a time horizon of 30 years. It is clear from this gure that uncleared waste increased from 559,200 tonnes in 1995 to 3.45e + 007 tonnes in 2025, and untreated waste increases from 376,300 tonnes in 1995 to 1.70e + 007 tonnes in 2025. The uncleared waste of Dhaka city is increasing with time because of an inadequate collection capacity to transport the wastes to the dumpsites as a result of small fund allocation for USWM. Untreated waste is also increasing with time due to the lack of treatment facilities. As a result, composite index and public concern increase with time. The composite index increases from 0.86 in 1995 to 127.43 in 2025. The rapid increase in composite index with time means that the quality of the environment is deteriorating rapidly with time. The public concern increases from 1 in 1995 to 6.78 in 2025, and this means that the public is more concerned about the environment. Fig. 5 shows simulated uncleared non-recycling, uncleared recyclable waste, recyclable stock waiting for recycling, treatment capacity and landll capacity. Uncleared non-recycling stock increases from 519,600 tonnes in 1995 to 3.340e + 007 tonnes in 2025. Uncleared recyclable waste stock increases from 395,00 tonnes in 1995 to 1.075e + 006 tonnes in 2005, and recyclable stock waiting for recycling increases from 5,900 tonnes in 1995 to 1.088e + 006 tonnes in 2025. Uncleared non-recycling is increasing rapidly, but the uncleared recyclable waste stock

Fig. 3. Population, solid waste generation, collection capacity and electricity generation potential from solid waste of Dhaka city.

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Fig. 4. Simulated uncleared waste, untreated waste, composite index and public concern for a time horizon of 30 years.

Fig. 5. Simulated uncleared non-recycling, recyclable waste, recyclable stock, treatment capacity and landll capacity for a time horizon of 30 years.

and recyclable stock waiting for recycling are increasing gradually with time in a similar fashion. The introduction of a treatment plant and a landll in 1995, each having a capacity of 150,000 tonnes, is considered. Treatment capacity increases up to 15 years, then it almost stops increasing. This is because the treatment plants are operating at full capacity. The required landll capacity increases up to 27 years and then it becomes almost constant. Fig. 6 shows the simulated total funds required for collection, landll, and treatment, total fund required and fund for USWM for a time horizon of 30 years. The simulated total fund required for collection, total fund required and fund for USWM are increasing with time. The fund

required for collection increases from Tk 3.46e + 008 (US$1 = Tk30) in 1995 to Tk 14.15e + 008 in 2025 since the generation of solid waste increases. The fund required for disposal also increases from Tk 7.50e + 007 in 1995 to Tk 45.38e + 007 in 2025. The fund required for waste treatment is increasing up to 15 years. After 15 years, the fund required for treatment is more or less constant at a value of Tk 5.70e + 007. This is because of the fact that the capacity utilization of the treatment plant is fullled. The fund required for landll is also increasing, until towards the end of the simulated period. These are due to the fact that treatment capacity and landll capacity are approaching the proposed desired treatment capacity

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Fig. 6. Simulated total fund required for collection, fund required for disposal, fund required for processing, total fund required and fund for USWM for a time horizon of 30 years (one US $ = Taka 70.00).

and proposed desired landll capacity, respectively. Logically, the total fund required increases from Tk 4.660e + 008 in 1995 to Tk 19.27e + 008 in 2005, and the total fund required for solid waste management increases from Tk 1.18e + 008 in 1995 to Tk 6.16e+008 in 2005. Thus, increased funds are needed for both collection and solid waste management. Fig. 7 shows the simulated desired number of trucks, number of trucks used, surplus or decit total budget, surplus or decit budget for collection and percent of fund available for collection for a time horizon of 30 years. The desired number of trucks increases from 575

in 1995 to 2384 in 2025, whereas the number of trucks used increases from 230 in 1995 to 1148 in 2025. There is always a gap between the desired number of trucks and number of trucks used. Thus, the collection service at Dhaka city is deteriorating rather than improving. Moreover, the transportation of the waste to the dumpsite is not properly managed. Wastes are seen ying from the trucks during transport. Since the population and wastes generated are increasing with time, the desired number of trucks is also increasing. The number of trucks never equals the desired number of trucks, since the policy was to reduce the shortage in number of trucks, which

Fig. 7. Simulated desired number of trucks, number of trucks used, surplus or decit budget, surplus or decit budget for collection and percent of fund available for collection for a time horizon of 30 years.

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is dynamic. This indicates that more funds are required to mitigate the shortage of trucks and to meet the collection cost. The patterns of the change in the budget decit and the budget for collection decrease with time but the percent of fund available for collection increases from almost 34% in 1995 to 39% in 2000, then gradually to 43.5% in 2005, and then almost remains constant. Thus, there is high shortage of fund for collection particularly for trucks for collection. Fig. 8 shows the simulated percent of fund increase required for only total waste collection and total USWM for a time horizon of 30 years. Initially the required budget for collection is 291%. The budget requirement for collection decreases from 291% to 254% sharply within 5 years, then it gradually decreases to a constant value of 238% within 10 years and it continues up to 25 years. After 25 years, it decreases gradually. But for total urban solid waste management, the required budget for total waste management is 415%. Then, the budget requirement decreases gradually from 415% to an almost constant value of 340% within 10 years. The initial jumps of the budgets for total waste collection and total urban solid waste management are due to the introduction of treatment plant and landlls for solid waste disposal. In order to obtain insight into the eect of the alternative policy options, the following two policy options are considered: Policy 1: Increasing the collection capacity and assessing its impact on uncleared waste, untreated waste, number of trucks and composite index. Policy 2: Increasing collection capacity, treatment capacity, and landll capacity and assessing its impact on uncleared waste, untreated waste, number of trucks and composite index.

Policy 1: Fig. 9 shows the simulated uncleared waste, untreated waste, number of trucks and composite index for increase in collection capacity for a time horizon of 30 years. From the gure it is observed that if we increase the collection capacity by doubling truck increase rate, the uncleared waste decreases and untreated waste increases, but the composite index remains unchanged as compared with the base scenarios discussed earlier. This means that increasing collection capacity alone does not improve the environmental quality because composite index is the indicator of environmental quality. Policy 2: Fig. 10 shows the simulated uncleared waste, untreated waste, number of trucks used and composite index with increase in collection capacity, treatment capacity and landll capacity for a time horizon of 30 years. From Fig. 10, it is observed that if we increase collection capacity, treatment capacity and landll capacity by doubling the truck increase rate, treatment capacity increase rate and landll capacity increase rate, respectively, the uncleared waste decreases in a similar fashion as in Policy 1; but untreated waste and the composite index also decrease as compared to Policy 1. Increased composite index is the sign of environmental quality deterioration, and decreased composite index is the sign of environmental quality improvement. This implies that the increased budget allocation for both clearing and treating the wastes is essential for improving the environmental quality of Dhaka city. Energy from the waste and from the incineration reduces greenhouse gas emission. An analysis of CO2 equivalent emission per kWh of electricity produced by energy from waste showed that the global warming potential of emission from waste is less than coal, fuel and even natural gas.

Fig. 8. Simulated percent of fund increased required for only total waste collection and total USWM for a time horizon of 30 years.

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Fig. 9. Simulated uncleared waste, untreated waste, number of trucks and composite index with increase in collection capacity for a time horizon of 30 years.

Fig. 10. Simulated uncleared waste, untreated waste, number of trucks and composite index with increased collection capacity, treatment capacity and landll capacity for a time horizon of 30 years.

4. Conclusions Solid waste generation, waste collection capacity, and electrical energy generation potential from the solid waste for Dhaka city are increasing with time. Adoption of the policy for electricity from the urban solid waste of Dhaka city should be dictated by the economy of adoption of the technology of electricity generation from the waste and the level of adverse environmental impacts. Uncollected waste, untreated waste, composite index and public concern are increasing with time. Uncleared non-recycling is increasing rapidly but the uncleared recyclable waste

and recyclable stock waiting for recycling are increasing gradually with time. With the current trend of fund allocation for USWM of Dhaka city, it is not possible to manage the solid waste. More funds are required to mitigate the shortage of trucks and to meet the cost of collection of all generated waste. If the current budget for USWM is used only for collection, the decit budget for collection will improve, but a zero balance or surplus fund is not realized. Increasing collection capacity alone does not improve the environmental quality. An increase in the budget allocation for both collection and treating the wastes is essential for improving the environmental

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M.A. Suan, B.K. Bala / Waste Management 27 (2007) 858868 Khan, M.M.H., 1999. Use of kitchen waste as animal feed. Unpublished B.Sc. A.H. Report. Bangladesh Agricultural University, Mymensingh, Bangladesh. Kum, V., Sharp, A., Harnpornchai, N., 2005. Improving the solid waste management in Phnom Penh city: a strategic approach. Waste Management 25, 101109. Mashayekhi, A.N., 1990. Rangeland destruction under population growth: the case of Iran. System Dynamics Review 6, 167193. Mashayekhi, A.N., 1992. Transition in the New York state solid waste system: a dynamic analysis. System Dynamics Review 9 (1), 2347. Meadows, D.H., Meadows, D.L., Randers, J., 1992. Beyond Limits. Chelsea Green Publishing, Vermont. Ming, Z.G., Zhong, Y.X., Yue, Z.P., Cheg, G.H., He, H.G.G., Hemelaar, L., 2000. Environmental inputoutput model and its analysis with a focus on the waste management sectors. Journal of Environmental Science 12 (2), 178183. Pawan, S., Sikka, P., Maheshwari, R.C., Chaturvedi, P., 1997. Management of Municipal Solid Waste, Bio Energy for Rural Energization. Department of Science and Technology, IIT, New Delhi, India, pp. 205209. Rao, C.S., 1992. Environmental Pollution Control Engineering. Willey Eastern Limited, New Delhi, pp. 396414. Saeed, K., 1994. Development Planning and Policy Design: A System Dynamics Approach. Chelsea Green Publishing, Vermont. Salvato, J.A., 1992. Solid waste management. Environmental Engineering and Sanitation, fourth ed. Wiley, pp. 662766. Saysel, A.K., Barlas, Y., 2001. A dynamic model of salinization on irrigated lands. Ecological Modeling 139, 177199. Saysel, A.K., Barlas, Y., Yenigun, O., 2002. Environmental sustainability in an agricultural development project: a system dynamics approach. Journal of Environmental Management 64, 247260. Sonesson, U., Dalemo, M., Mingarini, K., Jonsson, H., 1997. A simulation model for organic waste handling. Part 2: Case study and simulation results. Resources, Conservation and Recycling 21, 3954. Sonesson, U., Bjorklund, A., Carlsson, M., Dalemo, M., 2000. Environmental and economic analysis of management systems for biodegradable wastes. Resources, Conservation and Recycling 28, 2953. Sudhir, V., Srinivasan, G., Muraleedharan, V.R., 1997. Planning for sustainable solid waste management in urban India. System Dynamics Review 13 (3), 223246. Suan, M.A., 2001. Planning for Urban Solid Waste Management: The Case of Dhaka City. Unpublished M.S. Thesis, Dept. of Farm Power & Machinery, Bangladesh Agricultural University, Mymensingh, December 2001. Themelis, N.J., Kim, Y.H., Brady, M.H., 2002. Energy recovery from New York City solid wastes. ISWA Journal: Waste Management and Research 20, 223233.

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