ERSTE GROUP

CHARTBOOK Trading Ideas

Prediction is always difficult, especially when its about the future .but were still trying!

Ronald-Peter Stoeferle, CMT, CFTe ronald.stoeferle@erstegroup.com

Vienna, January 4 2011

NTX - The big picture Convincing technical setup 2011 target: 1,600

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On-Balance-Volume MACD

ADX/DMI

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NTX - The big picture Ichimoku-Chart confirms the bullish setup

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Ichimoku-chart confirms our bullish stance on CEE equities! conversion line crossed base line and gave Buy signal price is well supported by the cloud lagging line gives solid support relative strength vs. EuroStoxx (and most other benchmarks) also looks solid target levels in 2011: 50% Fib @ 1,364

Cloud

61.8% Fib @ 1,541 76.4% Fib @ 1,760 (bull case) support levels: 1,268

Relative Strength vs. EuroStoxx

1,229

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Seasonality favors cyclicals in H1*

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H1: Cyclicals
4% 3% 2% 1% 0% -1% -2% -3% -4% Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug

H2: Defensives

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

Defensives

Cyclicals

Diff. Cyclicals vs. Defensives

Investors favor risky sectors in H1, therefore cyclicals post significant outperformance in H1

* results based on Stoxx Europe 600

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Favored indices within our region: ATX

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ATX traded in a relatively narrow range in 2010 technicals look sound, therefore we expect the breakout to be sustainable we expect a correction in January to ~ support level @ 2,800 at this level wed be aggressive buyers MACD gave a strong buy-signal on a weekly basis

MACD ADX/DMI RSI

DMI+ picking up momentum, next phase of the uptrend ahead target levels in 2011: 50% Fib @ 3,182 61.8% Fib @ 3,604 76.4% Fib @ 4,127 (bull case) support levels: 2,800 & 2,760

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Favored indices within our region: Turkey: XU 100

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expecting some more weakness short-term ~ TRY 60,000 would be perfect entry level medium/longtermtrend is still healthy and confirmed by almost all technical indicators quick MACD (6/13) already giving a (premature) Buy signal targets in 2011:

MACD medium-term long MACD quick MACD

72,071 (alltime-high) 82,868 (123.6% Fib. extension) 89,989 (138.2 % Fib) 95,744 (150% Fib. (bull case!!!) support levels: 60,000 53,174 (38.2% Fib)

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Favored indices within our region: Poland: WIG

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WIG also traded in a narrow range in 2010 breakout above resistance @ 45,000 finally successful consolidation on relatively low volume, but breakout on high volume technicals look sound, therefore we expect the breakout to be sustainable modest pullback might lead to correction in January to ~ support level @ 45,000 target levels in 2011: 38.2% Fib @ 49,968

RSI

23.6 % Fib @ 56,773 ATH @ 67,700 support levels: 38,968

MACD

32,163 it remains unclear how government plans to cut cash transfers to pension funds will affect the market

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Favored indices within our region: Croatia: CRO Index

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Breakaway-gaps on high volume (triggering 30wMA) Coppock indicator is about to move up and give a longterm Buy signal support @ 1.23 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement CCI & Williams % R (both similar to Stochastics) are posting positive divergences! expecting a decisive break through the longterm resistance @ ~2,230

MACD CCI

Coppock

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Top Picks Austria:

RHI & VOE
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both stocks established impressive uptrends however, from a technical point of view, a correction should be ahead, especially after the stealth-bull in Q4 we would recommend buying into this correction, as overall technicals appear sound

RHI RHI AV

Voest VOE AV

impressive 3 white soldier candles MACD, OBV and DMI/ADX confirming uptrend support levels: EUR 25.5 (50% Fib) targets: EUR 34.6 (76.4% Fib), EUR 42.6 (high 2007)

beautiful uptrend confirmed by most oscillators/indicators impressive trend strength buy into every weakness targets: EUR 43 & EUR 50.95

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Top Picks Austria

IIA & KTCG
Immofinanz IIA AV
double-top @ 3.30 will be major resistance expecting a pullback to ~ EUR 3 area technical setup still healthy, therefore we would buy into the pullback mid/longterm we expect uptrend to continue to ~ EUR 3.9 (50%Fib projection) and EUR 4.3
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Kapsch Trafficcom KTCG AV

Kapsch is currently developing a textbook pennant formation due to several bearish divergences, technicals favor a break to the downside EUR 60 (23,6% Fib.) might be a sweet entry spot for 2011, EUR 82,8 (123,6 % Fib extension) or even (bull case!!) EUR 97,5 (150% Fib. extension) conceivable

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Top Picks Austria

OMV
OMV vs. STOXX Oil & Gas:
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relative strength supports (see Trade idea OMV Dec. 10) were confirmed Dec. target @ EUR 31 was called perfectly consensus view is neutral/bearish

OMV weekly chart

medium-term chart (weekly candles) showing a breakout weekly RSI, DMI in positive terrain breakout on HIGH VOLUME! daily RSI, DMI and momentum strongly improving MACD medium-term technical target: 50% Fib. retracement @ EUR 39.3

ADX/DMI RSI

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Top Picks Hungary:

RFV, MOL
RFV HB
inverse SHS formation leads to measured-move target @ HUF 9,110 stock is trading above 30/60/200d Moving Averages MACD recently gave a buy signal ATH @ HUF 9,740 might be tackled soon
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MOL HB
downtrend seems to be over MACD on Buy ADX posting bullish divergence increasing relative strength vs. BUX and sector HUF 20,000 support looks solid moving average golden cross consensus view is still neutral targets: HUF 24,770

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Top Picks Poland:

ABPL (ABE PW ), Kulczyk Oil Ventures (KOV PW)
ABPL - ABE PW
On-balance Volume confirms bulltrend RSI supported in bullmarket-range next target: PLN 28.8 (ATH), 32.7 (123,6% Fib) 36.2 (138,2% Fib)
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Due to low liquidity both calls are risky, therefore set tight stop-losses!!
Kulczyk Oil Ventures KOV PW

MACD posting bullish divergences triple-bottom @ 1.50 looks solid set a tight stop-loss @ 1.35 OBV indicating accumulation relative weakness against Crude & sector clearly diminishing targets: 1.66 (23.6% Fib), 1.79 (38.2%), 2 (61.8%)

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Top Picks Poland:

Asseco Poland - ACP PW
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ACP PW
downtrend seems to be over 30/60-day Moving Average were crossed from below now 200-d Moving Average is a major resistance that should be tackled Ichimoku Chart confirms our bullish view conversion line above Base line = buy signal support level: 52 and 48 targets: 65.7 (50% Fib), 71.5 (61.8%), 78 (76.4% Fib)

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Top Picks Croatia:

Hrvatski Telekom (HTRA CZ)
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HTRA CZ

lets close the gap!

according to the old technical saying every gap eventually is closed chances are good that it also applies to Hrvatski Telekom OBV confirms the new bull-market ADX is picking up momentum looks like a cup and handle formation, volume confirms this pattern most other indicators posting bullish divergences target: upper end of the gap @ 320 stop: support level @ 266

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Top Pick Romania:

Transelectrica SA TEL RO
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consolidation seems to be over, cup&handlepattern finally confirmed MACD confirming the buy-signal ADX/DMI underlining trend strength 30/60/200-day Moving Average were crossed from below Ichimoku Chart confirms our bullish view support level: RON 19 and 17.8 targets: 22 (high 2010), 28.6 (50% Fib. retracement)

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Top Picks Turkey:

Turkiye Halk Bankasi (HALKB TI), TUPRAS (TUPRS TI)
HALKB TI
textbook-consolidation @ 38.2 % Fib. retracement MACD is about to give a Buy-signal
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HALKB TI

ADX is picking up improving trend strength 200d MA was confirmed as solid support coppock is about to move up and give a longterm signal targets: 14.2, 16.40, 18.8 (126.6% Fib) stops: 12.9, 11.85

TUPRS TI

TUPRS TI
resistance becomes support! CCI posting positive divergence OBV confirms validity of the uptrend 30/60/200d MAs also solid targets: 39.4, 46.2 stop: 36.2, 34.8

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Top Picks Turkey:

TEKFEN Holding (TKFEN TI), BIM Birlesik (BIMAS TI)
TKFEN TI
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TKFEN TI
chart showing a textbook consolidation on the 23.6% Fib. retracement consolidation took place on very low volume correction is over, next target is the ATH @ 6.90 increasing relative strength compared to sector and XU30 MACD on Buy due to the sound technical setup we expect further outperformance and envisage 7.3 and 7.96 as target levels in 2011

BIMAS TI BIMAS TI
one of our favorite longterm-picks however, we clearly see some divergences, for example in the MACD recommend buying into correction

quick MACD long MACD Vienna, Jan. 4 2011 18

TRY 49.8 or 47 (23,6% Fib) might be attractive entry levels

Trading Ideas Chartbook 2011

But please remember

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You dont have to trade every signal the market gives you

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ERSTE GROUP

Published by Erste Group Bank AG, Neutorgasse 17, 1010 Vienna, Austria. Phone +43 (0)5 0100 - ext. Erste Group Homepage: www.erstegroup.com On Bloomberg please type: ERBK <GO>. This research report was prepared by Erste Group Bank AG (Erste Group) or its affiliate named herein. The individual(s) involved in the preparation of the report were at the relevant time employed in Erste Group or any of its affiliates. The report was prepared for Erste Group clients. The information herein has been obtained from, and any opinions herein are based upon, sources believed reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. All opinions, forecasts and estimates herein reflect our judgment on the date of this report and are subject to change without notice. The report is not intended to be an offer, or the solicitation of any offer, to buy or sell the securities referred to herein. From time to time, Erste Group or its affiliates or the principals or employees of Erste Group or its affiliates may have a position in the securities referred to herein or hold options, warrants or rights with respect thereto or other securities of such issuers and may make a market or otherwise act as principal in transactions in any of these securities. Erste Group or its affiliates or the principals or employees of Erste Group or its affiliates may from time to time provide investment banking or consulting services to or serve as a director of a company being reported on herein. Further information on the securities referred to herein may be obtained from Erste Group upon request. Past performance is not necessarily indicative for future results and transactions in securities, options or futures can be considered risky. Not all transactions are suitable for every investor. Investors should consult their advisor, to make sure that the planned investment fits into their needs and preferences and that the involved risks are fully understood. This document may not be reproduced, distributed or published without the prior consent of Erste Group. Erste Group Bank AG confirms that it has approved any investment advertisements contained in this material. Erste Group Bank AG is regulated by the Financial Market Authority (FMA) Otto-Wagner-Platz 5,1090 Vienna, and for the conduct of investment business in the UK by the Financial Services Authority (FSA). Please refer to www.erstegroup.com for the current list of specific disclosures and the breakdown of Erste Groups investment recommendations.

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