MSD608 SYSTEMS AND SIMULATION

Outline for Todays Talk

Syllabus and References Course Objectives What is Simulation? Brief History Advantages and Disadvantages Applications Case Studies Manufacturing, SCM, BPR, etc.. When to simulate and when not? Skill set requirement for Simulation

Syllabus
1. INTRODUCTION TO SYSTEMS AND SIMULATION Basic concepts of systems, General systems, Elements of systems, theory, concept of simulation-Simulation as a decision making tool-types of simulation-System modeling and types of modeling-desk and bench mark simulation.

2.

RANDOM NUMBER Probability and statistical concepts of simulation-Pseudo random numbersMethods of generating random variables-Discrete and continuous distributions-Testing of random numbers-Sampling-simple random and simulated.

Syllabus
3. DESIGN OF SIMULATION EXPERIMENTS Problem formulation-Data collection and reduction time flow mechanism-Key variables-Logic flowchart starting condition-Run size-Experimental design consideration-Output analysis and interpretation, validation-Application of simulation in industries, Engineering and scientific organisations.
4. SIMULATION LANGUAGE Use of digital computer in simulated sampling -Comparison and selection of simulated languages-Analysis-Study of any simulation languageModification of simulation models using simulation language.. 5. CASE STUDIES Development of simulation models using the simulation language studied for systems like: Queuing systems- Production Systems-Inventory systemsMaintenance and replacement systems Investment analysis and network.

References
1. JERRY BANKS and JOHN S.CARSON," Discrete event system simulation ", Prentice Hall,1984.

2. R.E.SHANNON," Systems simulation ,the art and science ", Prentice Hall,1975.
3. JOE H. MIZE AND J. GRADY COX," Essentials of simulation ", Prentice Hall Inc.1968.

4. JEFFREY L. WHITTEN,LONNIE D.BENTLEY AND VICTOR M.BARICE, " System analysis and design methods ", Galgotia Publications Pvt Ltd.,1991
5. THOMAS J. SCHRIBER, " Simulation using GPSS ", John Wiley, 1974.

Course Objectives
The course hopes to answer
How to build models of real systems using simulation techniques (as against analytical techniques)? How to statistically analyze these models? How to gain managerial insights about the real systems from the simulation models?

Course Objectives
We are going to mimic the real systems by development of simulation models. The focus is going to be more on analysis rather than coding. We are more interested in finding the performance parameters of the system using simulation so that we can take decisions based on the models. Simulation software packages are going to be just tools to achieve our objective which is to draw conclusions about the real system.

How do you analyse this Situation?

Ways to study a system

What is simulation?
Simulation is the process of designing a mathematical or logical model of a real system and then conducting computer-based experiments with the model to describe, explain, and predict the behavior of the real system
Simulation is the process of designing a model of a real system and conducting experiments with this model for the purpose of either understanding the behavior of the system and/or evaluating various strategies for the operation of the system.

What is simulation?
A Simulation of a system is the operation of a model, which is a representation of that system. The model is amenable to manipulation which would be impossible, too expensive, or too impractical to perform on the system which it portrays. The operation of the model can be studied, and, from this, properties concerning the behavior of the actual system can be inferred.

Brief History
World War II Monte Carlo simulation: originated with the work on the atomic bomb. Used to simulate bombing raids. Given the security code name Monte-Carlo. Late 50s, early 60s Computers improve Required big computers, special training Processing cost as high as $1000/hour for a sub-286 level machine First languages introduced: SIMSCRIPT, GPSS (IBM) Simulation viewed at the tool of last resort Late 60s, early 70s Primary computers were mainframes: accessibility and interaction was limited Introduction of GASP IV triggered a wave of diverse applications. Significant in the evolution of simulation.

Brief History (cont.)

Late 70s, early 80s Computers got faster, cheaper Value of simulation more widely recognized Simulation software improved, but they were still languages to be learned, typed, batch processed SLAM introduced in 1979 by Pritsker and Pegden. Models more credible because of sophisticated tools. SIMAN introduced in 1982 by Pegden. First language to run on both a mainframe as well as a microcomputer. Late 80s through present Powerful PCs Wider acceptance across more areas: Traditional manufacturing applications Services Health care Business processes Languages are very sophisticated Major advancement: graphics. Models can now be animated in 3D!

Sources for Latest Developments

Arena AutoMod Delmia Extend Flexsim Micro Saint Pro Model SIMUL8 WITNESS www.arenasimulation.com www.automod.com www.delmia.com www.3ds.com www.imaginethatinc.com www.flexsim.com www.maad.com www.promodel.com www.simul8.com www.witness-for-simulation.com

Three reasons to use simulation

To understand Model to understand the impact of solar radiation and greenhouse gases on the earths surface temperature To improve Model to reduce waiting time of patients in a hospital emergency room
To predict performance

Simulation of a potential layout for a new factory

Advantages
The basic concept of simulation is easy to comprehend and hence often easier to justify to management or customers than some of the analytical models. A simulation model may be more credible because it's behavior has been compared to that of the real system

We can test new designs, layouts, etc. without committing resources to their implementation.
Using simulation, performance of the existing system can be estimated for a range of operating conditions. Alternatives to existing system could be tested with relative ease

Advantages
Can be used to study existing systems without disrupting the ongoing operations. Proposed systems can be tested before committing resources. Allows us to control time Allows us to identify bottlenecks. Allows us to gain insight into which variables are most important to system performance. Control in simulation experiment is better than that in experiment with the system itself.

Disadvantages
Simulation modeling is an art that requires specialized training and therefore skill levels of practitioners vary widely. Gathering highly reliable input data can be time consuming and the resulting data is sometimes highly questionable.

Simulation models are input-output models, i.e. they yield the probable output of a system for a given input. They do not yield an optimal solution, rather they serve as a tool for analysis of the behavior of a system under specified conditions. Most often, the results of simulation are estimates. Several runs of the model could be required to study the system in details.
Often are time consuming and expensive.

Applications
MANUFACTURING: material handling systems, assembly lines, automated production facilities, inventory control systems, plant layout, etc.. BUSINESS: stock and commodity analysis, pricing policies marketing strategies, cash flow analysis, forecasting, etc COMPUTER SYSTEMS: hardware components, software systems, networks, data base management, information processing, etc.. GOVERNMENT: military weapons and their use, military tactics, population forecasting, land use, health care delivery, fire protection, criminal justice, traffic control, etc

Case Studies -Manufacturing Simulation

1 A detailed simulation model was developed to represent the sortation system, input conveyor and exit conveyor of a food sortation system. By studying alternative scenarios, the company was able to improve key performance areas.
2 Analysis of the manufacturer's processes using over 20 "what if" scenarios helped determine recommendations for process improvement leading to reduction of cycle time and operating expenses and increased sales. 3 This paper presents a new method to identify and rank the bottlenecks in a manufacturing system

Case Studies -Manufacturing Simulation

4 This research presents an integrated simulation modelingDesign For Six Sigma (DFSS) framework to study the design and process issues in a server manufacturing environment Simulating an applied model to optimize cell production and parts supply (Mizusumashi) for laptop assembly

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When should we simulate?

The system is complex Uncertainty exists in the variables Real experiments are impossible or costly The processes are repetitive Stakeholders cant agree on policy Decisions should be of an operational nature. (quantitative and logical, not qualitative such as how to motivate a worker) Activities and events should be interdependent and variable. (If the activities dont interfere, then why simulation?) The cost impact of the decision should be greater than the cost of doing the simulation.

When should not we simulate?

1. The problem can be solved using common sense 2. Simulation should not be used if the problem can be solved analytically 3. Simulation should not be used if it is easier to perform direct experiments 4. If the costs exceed the savings 5. Simulation should not be performed if the resources or time are not available.

Skill Set Requirement

Knowledge of the system under investigation System analyst skills (model formulation) Model building skills (model Programming) Data collection skills Statistical skills (input data representation) More statistical skills (output data analysis)

Even more statistical skills (design of experiments)

Management skills (to get everyone pulling in the same direction)