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BWD GLOBAL

NOV. 6, 2013 TO: JOE MONAHAN

FROM: Bruce Donisthorpe RE: NOV. 6TH ABQ CC7 SURVEY SUMMARY & HIGHLIGHTS

METHODOLOGY Automated phone dialing survey using established demographic methodological standards to 528 likely voting Demcratic, Republican and Independent registered households with known voting history in general elections from the 7th City Council District in the City of Albuquerque, New Mexico. Surveys were conducted using this method between 6 pm and 9 pm. As is done routinely in surveys, results were weighted or adjusted at the top-line to ensure that responses accurately reflect the populations makeup by factors such as age, sex, region, and other established demographic standards and variables. The margin of sampling error for the surveys conducted for this questions is 4.2% with a 95% level of confidence for the interviews conducted in this survey. TOP LINE: Question: In the race for City Councillor in your area, who would you support between Diane Gibson and Janice Arnold-Jones? GIBSON ARNOLD-JONES UNDEC 47.7% 42.0% 10.4%

Margin of Error: 10.4% 528 Likely Voters, City of Albuquerque Bruce Donisthorpe has been polling professionally since 2006. He has conducted several polls for Joe Monahans political blog in the 2008, 2010 and 2012 campaigns. And conducted a survey on Mayor Berrys public approval rating last year. He was active in polling the City of Albuquerque elections in 2009, in which he accurately forecasted Berrys win and the upset victory by City Councillor Dan Lewis in Albuquerque City Counil District 5. This is the 2nd survey Donisthorpe has conducted in this district this Fall.

ANALYSIS OF RESULTS THE BOTTOM LINE UP FRONT: Democratic Challenger Diane Gibson vaulted into the lead in the 7th District race based upon the strong support of DEM voters throughout the district. Gibson definitely benefits from the Districts opposition to the proposed ballot referendum on abortion, which trails by almost 20 points in the district. Gibson is pulling almost 75% of DEM voters, which provide an edge in registration and turnout in this election. Incumbent Councillor Janice Arnold-Jones, the Republican leads among REP (77-14) and INDP (52-34) voters, but that is not enough to put her into the lead on this survey. Councillor ArnoldJones has lost considerable DEM support since our September survey, moving from 29% to 15% in the current survey. Arnold-Jones had a name-identification advantage in the last election that has been neutralized somewhat by the Gibson campaign forces, who secured the support of Matthew Biggs (who came in 3rd on Oct. 8th) and the endorsement of Senators Udall and Heinrich and Congresswoman Lujan-Grisham. Almost 10% of the voters remain undecided and Arnold-Jones faces an uphill battle to victory needing to expand the pool of Republican and Independent voters to win on election day.

ABQ CITYWIDE SPECIAL REFERENDUM DEMOGRAPHIC BREAKOUTS CATEGORY OVERALL


GENDER FEMALE DEM REP INDP MALE DEM REP INDP ETHNICITY ANGLO DEM REP INDP HISPANIC DEM REP INDP PARTY DEM REP INDP AREA WEST SIDE N/S VALLEY SE/MID HEIGHTS NE HEIGHTS IDEOL PROG LIB MOD CONSV UNSURE

SUPP% 27.4% 39% 24% 58% 38% 37% 26% 43% 45% 36% 23% 51% 32% 43% 23% 63% 78% 25% 51% 41%

OPPOSE% 56.3% 57% 74% 37% 53% 55% 66% 47% 45% 60% 75% 44% 60% 46% 66% 20% 17% 70% 42% 50%

UND% 6.4% 5% 3% 5% 9% 9% 8% 9% 10% 4% 2% 5% 8% 12% 11% 17% 6% 5% 7% 9%

36% 40% 32% 39% 21% 17% 29% 69% 44%

60% 49% 63% 54% 74% 81% 63% 26% 50%

4% 11% 5% 7% 5% 3% 8% 5% 6%

RELIGION CATHOLIC PROTESTANT OTHER 34% 42% 38% 57% 53% 54% 9% 5% 8%