Safeti Offshore An Introduction

Background
Over the years, DNV has developed a number of tools for safety analysis of Offshore installations Offshore Hazard and Risk Analysis Toolkit (OHRAT)
- First version released in 1992 in direct response to Piper Alpha disaster - Joint industry project with numerous Operators, Consultants and EPCs

Neptune
- The OHRAT concept taken into Microsoft Windows environment (1999)

Spreadsheet models (e.g. SOQRATES) (2005+) Phast also used for Offshore consequences All these tools have their own respective benefits and drawbacks As a result, in 2009 DNV started discussing a new tool to harness our Offshore experience so far and build a new tool for the future Welcome to Safeti Offshore!

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Safeti Offshore
A joint collaboration involving significant investment between:
- DNV Consulting, providing their Offshore QRA and domain experience - DNV Software, delivering software engineering and mathematical modelling expertise

Design discussions during 2009-2010 Project and coding kick-off January 2011, starting with Proof of Concept First internal release planned for end-2012, plus regular interim releases Key project goals:
- Develop an integrated and uniform approach to Offshore QRA based upon international standards such as ISO 17776 and NORSOK Z013 - Integration of separate QRA models within one common software tool - Support risk management throughout the lifecycle of an installation from planning to decommissioning - Provision of a standardised tool building on the well-established Phast architecture - Benefit from software economies of scale

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Whats new in Safeti Offshore?

Safeti Offshore incorporates significant new technology compared with current Safeti (Phast Risk) Offshore asset hierarchy Automatic release case generation (subject to user defined rules) 3-D graphical input and viewer Powerful data input grid New mathematical modelling, including:
- Improved discharge modelling, allowing for safety systems:
- Detection, isolation and blowdown

Integration of DNV Express, a probabilistic model for module explosions New compartment fire model taking into account module geometry and flame development Subsea releases Escalation modelling

Plus everything else that Safeti currently contains

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Safeti Offshore Basic Workflow

Assets tab:
Define Installation Areas Define Safety Barriers, Walls and Decks Define Escape Routes Define Structural Elements

Assign Explosion Targets & Vulnerabilities Define other data:

Materials Weathers Worker population

Process Tab:
Define Isolatable Sections Define Equipment items Define Process Case options Define Risers & Pipelines Define Wellgroups

Then perform the calculations:

Inventory volume Leak frequencies Consequences Risk

Generate Leak Locations (Scenarios) and Cases (Safety Systems) for each section Add User Defined Scenarios

Review results and perform sensitivity analysis

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Building a 3D representation of the QRA (1)

1. First add your installation areas (in terms of cuboids)

2. Then add Structural Elements

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Building a 3D representation of the QRA (2)

3. Next add physical safety barriers, such as walls and decks. These will be used later as explosion targets for your Leak Locations (scenarios)

4. Add isolatable sections with associated equipment, valves and pipework

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Building a 3D representation of the QRA (3)

Until finally the full 3D model is complete including:
- Risers - Pipelines - Escapeways

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New Data Input Grid

Allows import from other systems and manipulation of data in bulk grid format Comparable with Excel cells supports Copy and Paste from Excel

Data can be grouped according to your specific requirements

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New Time Varying Discharge Model

Takes account of time dependent release characteristics together with incorporated Safety Systems, for example:
- Detection - Isolation - Blowdown

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New probabilistic explosion model - EXPRESS

EXPRESS is used to calculate the following:
- Flammable cloud dispersion in source module (cloud volume) - Detection, Ignition and Explosion probabilities - Explosion Overpressure Exceedance Curves (at each defined target)
Leak Location
IS1-G!E"#l$%i$n &ar e'

Aggregated Exceedance Probability vs Explosion verpressure

1.000E+00 0.0000

0.2000

0.4000

0.6000

0.8000

1.0000

1.2000

1.000E-01

1.000E-02

Probability (given Ignition)

1.000E-03

Leak Location

Small (main)

IS1-G

Medium (main) Lar e (main)

1.000E-04

Cumulative Probability of Ignition

1.000E+00

1.000E-05

1.000E-06

1.000E-01

0.0

200.0

400.0

600.0

800.0

1000.0

1200.0

1400.0

1600.0

1800.0

2000.0

Pressure [bar]
1.000E-02 1.000E-03 1.000E-04 1.000E-05

Probability

1.000E-06 1.000E-07 1.000E-08 1.000E-09 1.000E-10 1.000E-11 1.000E-12 1.000E-13 1.000E-14

Small (main) Medium (main) Lar e (main)

Time [s]

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New Compartment Fire Model

Bridges the gap between existing Phast fire models and CFD Builds upon the existing Phast fire models by combining them in new ways Fires begin in the source module Fires allowed to develop and escalate beyond the source module:
- Overall volume of the flame is conserved and spread over the platform in accordance with layout and geometry

Also handles scenario where fire walls are damaged or removed by initial explosion prior to fire

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New Compartment Fire Model An example (1)

Geometry layout and setup consists of defining various platform elements, for example Vertical walls Wind Horizontal decks

Solid fire walls Partial walls (either restricted height or width)

Fire start location

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New Compartment Fire Model An example (2)

Spill rate: 1.5kg/s

Pool fire confined to the source module and modelled as cone

Spill rate: 3.5kg/s

Flame grows in size. Spreads to adjacent module (represented as cuboid) and outside the platform (represented as cylinders)

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New Compartment Fire Model An example (3)

Spill rate: 11.0kg/s

Fire in adjacent module now grows larger and it extends outside platform in multiple locations. External wind effects now tilt the external flames.

Spill rate: 16.0kg/s

Fire now at maximum size inside the module. Fire model considers transition of burning process from fuel controlled to ventilation controlled inside the module. This is shown as a similar fire size inside the module (despite the increased spill rate) coupled with increased external fires

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Risk Results
Detailed risk results produced for each potential outcome Work on-going to develop sophisticated reporting mechanisms

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Overview of Typical Results (1)

Results related to frequency, consequence and risk results Frequency results
- Generally frequencies per year for the specific end events - Grouped frequencies per year according to high-level hazard categories - Grouped frequencies by area of the platform

Consequence results
- Discharge, release rate data (by event scenario and safety system) including flow rate, duration - Explosion results: EXPRESS / DAL detailed results; overpressure / impact at targets; escalation result - Fire results: fire and radiation extent; impact at targets; escalation result - Toxic results: dispersion extent; impact at targets - Smoke results: dispersion extent; impact at targets

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Overview of Typical Results (2)

Personnel risk
- Number of fatalities by area, by event, by immediate / escape / evacuation - LSIR (Location Specific Individual Risk). The frequency with which a person located in a particular area would become fatalities. This can be calculated on the assumption that a person is constantly present in an area, i.e. 365 days per year and 24 hours per day.
- Maybe LSIR contours not so relevant for offshore. But areas may be colour coded according to LSIR results similar to LSIR contours - NOTE LSIR is key as all other calculations use it as basis

- Potential loss of life (PLL) per area and for the entire facility - FAR (Fatal accident rate), for personnel inside the plant. The fatal accident rate (FAR) is the expected number of fatalities per 108 hours of exposure:
- FAR value for a defined group of personnel e.g. process operators. - FAR value for one specific area (Area FAR)

- IRPA (Individual Risk per Annum). The probability of a given individual becoming a fatality in a year as a result of their work associated with an installation or group of installations. Positional IRPA - FN curves, Societal risk or Aggregate risk

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Sample Facility Geometry - FPSO

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Sample Facility Geometry - FPSO

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Sample Facility Geometry Jacket Platform

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Sample Facility Geometry Semi-submersible

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Sample Facility Geometry Semi-submersible

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Towards the Future - Timeline

Safeti Offshore initial development project will run until end of 2012 Initial project use within DNV from early 2013 Timescales for commercialisation and rollout to our existing Phast Risk customers is not yet defined:
- We would greatly welcome your feedback on this topic

If anyone has specific needs for their own Offshore QRA analysis, now is a good time to talk with us. We have the possibility to include:
- New calculation models - Specific features and customisations - Additional reporting mechanisms

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Safeguarding life, property and the environment

www.dnv.com

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