Script Part Hazard 2013

(Part I: NATURAL HAZARDS IN GLACIER AREAS)
GEO 415.1 / GEO 856 GLACIERS IN AN ENVIRONMENTAL CONTEXT
Wilfried Haeberli Christian Huggel Andreas Kb
Updated 2013
Wilfried Haeberli, Christian Huggel
Contents
1. 2. Introduction Glaciers as Natural Hazards 2.1 Floods 2.1.1 Cases and processes 2.1.2 Empirical threshold values and models 2.1.3 Measures 2.2 Ice avalanches 2.2.1 Cases and processes 2.2.2 Empirical threshold values and models 2.2.3 Measures 2.3 Length/geometry changes 2.3.1 Cases and processes 2.3.2 Empirical threshold values and models 2.3.3 Measures 2.4 Hazard management concepts and integral risk assessment 2.4.1 Definitions 2.4.2 Special characteristics of glacial hazards 2.4.3 Hazard maps 2.4.4 Practical hazard assessment 2.4.5 Risk 2.4.6 Comprehensive hazard assessment Application of Remote Sensing 3.1 Remote sensing 3.2 Photogrammetry for early detection of glacier- and permafrost-induced natural hazards 3.3 Satellite remote sensing to assess glacier-induced natural hazards 3.4 Geodesy Case Study Gruben 4.1 Past events 4.2 Comprehensive hazard review 4.3 Photogrammetric observations and geophysical studies 4.4 Flexible protection concept and soft protective measures Glacier-clad Volcanoes Cited Literature and Sources of Figures 1 3 3 3 5 16 18 18 20 30 32 32 33 44 46 46 48 48 49 50 51 56 56 57 58 59 60 61 61 62 63 64 76
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Glaciers in an environmental context - Natural hazards in glacier areas
1. Introduction
Natural hazards in glacier areas belong to the large field of applied glaciology. Applied glaciology deals with problems caused by ice in its various forms. For such practical questions the following principles must be kept in mind: The utility aspect has priority; science can offer decision guidance only. Inductive thinking is necessary, mandates are project studies; the primary issue is to apply the available knowledge basis to solve problems of practical relevance. It is important to gather complex situations (it is often crucial not to overlook or forget something) and to use integrative/comprehensive approaches. The problems must be prioritised (it is vital to begin at the right end). The state of knowledge must be defined clearly (discriminate between objective criteria, analogies, intuition etc.)
A selection of practical glaciological problems are noted below: Atmospheric ice: hail rime icing / de-icing white-out etc. Snow: snow hydrology snow drift, snow clearance snow production snow weight, snow forces snow avalanches etc. bearing capacity ice forces ice suppression navigation ice-breakers iceberg transport etc. glacier hazards glacial runoff (energy, irrigation) iceberg production frost weathering frost heave thaw settlement permafrost (creep processes, slope stability, foundations, water/sewage, ecolo- gy, agronomy, oil / pipelines) etc.
Floating ice: Glaciers:
Ground ice:
The broad range is obvious. One specialist alone cannot cover the diversity. Hence the speciality of the practitioner is to have extensive knowledge and wide interests. Additionally she or he must be capable to collaborate with specialists. In Switzerland the application is older than scientific glacier research: following the historical floods from the Mattmark lake dammed by the advancing Allalin glaciers the taverns in the Saas valley are repeatedly closed, because the catastrophe is perceived as a punishment from heaven for human misbehaviour; Ignaz Venetz at the Gitro dam failure the largest-ever glacier disaster in the Alps (cf. the following chapter on glacier floods) constitutes the dawn of the Ice-Age theory and soon after of scientific glacier research. In the 19th century problems with glacier floods and ice avalanches predominate. The construction of hydropower stations in the 20th century leads to the question of melt water runoff from glaciers. With the construction of power plants and with rapidly growing tourism mankind penetrates historically known danger areas. After the Mattmark disaster in 1965, a working group on glacier hazards, appointed by the Swiss Federal Council, forms. The empirical threshold values and recommendations herein presented are derived from historical documents and scientific publications analysed within the scope of this working group and from studies and experiences based on specific consulting (Haeberli 1983, Haeberli et al. 1989, Huggel et al 2004, Kb et al. 2005a, Haeberli et al. 2006). The exercises accompanying this course aim at consolidating the linked-up comprehensive approach, which proves to be the most sensible in the complex reality. In recent years in the field of glacier hazards questions of climate change gained more and more importance. Especially fast retreat, disintegration or even collapse of glaciers and the formation of new glacial lakes are examples of problems occurring in the context of climate change (Paul et al. 2007, Linsbauer et al. 2009, Frey et al. 2010, Haeberli et al. 2010). It is critical to acknowledge that already the present-day situation is beyond the limits of historical precedence. That means local historical experience increasingly looses significance; zones at present potentially at risk by glacier hazards no longer need to coincide with traditionally vulnerable areas; danger areas may shift because of processes due to climate change. Only in recent time the understanding of the influence of permafrost and permafrost warming on the hazard situation has increased. Rises of the permafrost limit, rock falls from rock faces in permafrost zones, increasingly unstable steep taluses due to thawing permafrost are challenging problems already now, but probably even more so in the future (Haeberli et al. 1997, Gruber and Haeberli 2007, Haeberli and Hohmann 2008). Special attention has to be paid to interactions between glaciers and permafrost, e.g. in steep, glacierised rock faces. A comprehensive approach to glacier and permafrost induced conditions is fundamental for realistically assessing high mountain hazards (Haeberli 2005). In respect of climate change and correlated fast changes of especially climate-sensitive glacierised high mountain areas, methods to routinely monitor these areas are particularly important. Therefore, aerial and satellite-based remote sensing increasingly gains in importance (Kb et al. 2005b), especially for remote and hardly accessible areas (e.g. the Himalayas or Andes). Nowadays satellite data and information gathered thereof can be integrated in GIS-models, allowing for assessment of the source of danger and its risk potential as well as to identify vulnerable areas (Huggel 2004). The course focuses on high-mountain conditions with special emphasis on the Swiss Alps, where especially rich documentation and research results are available.
2. Glaciers as Natural Hazards

For the analysis of glacier-induced natural hazards the following are investigated (Haeberli et al. 1989, Huggel et al. 2004):
a) b) c) floods
ice avalanches
length/geometry variations
These three aspects are linked with each other. For example: a glacier can advance to a rock terrace, there produce ice avalanches, the ice-debris talus dams up a stream to a lake finally resulting in a lake outburst causing a damaging flood. The mandating authority often sees only the obvious and ostensible hazard potential. Therefore it is advisable to assess the hazard situation comprehensively, even if this is not explicitly required. A useful, meaning adequate, measure can only be proposed based on such a comprehensive hazard assessment. Hereinafter some exemplary cases are described for the three different hazard aspects. Afterwards follows a short discussion of the most feasible model concepts. There the principle applies that in practice the simplest model can be the most beneficial because usually the database is restricted or inexistent. Hence the point is to compile empirical assessment procedures (empirical threshold values, rules of thumb) and to define their range of application. These rules of thumb qualify especially for the large area hazard assessment on the level of development planning (Richtplan, cf. BUWAL 1998). Finally some passive or active measures will be suggested accordingly.
2.1 Floods
Glacier floods generally constitute the largest and farthest-reaching glacier hazard, i.e. the risk with the highest hazard and damage potential. Apart from flood waves consisting mainly of water and covering a wide damage range, locally rather restricted, dangerous debris flows consisting mainly of solids can form as well.
2.1.1 Cases and processes

a) Cases Mauvoisin / Gitro Already in 1595 a lake outburst left 160 dead. Between 1805 and 1818, ice avalanches from the advancing Gitro glacier again form an avalanche cone (approx. 10 million m3) and plug consisting of ice debris to the Dranse river at Mauvosin. By mid-June of 1818 ~30 million m3 of water are dammed up. Construction of an ice tunnel by Ignaz Venetz under difficult conditions helps evacuating about 10 million m3, but on 16th June 1818 20 million m3 burst out suddenly: 44 dead, destructions as far as Martigny (about 25 km downstream). Outburst mechanism: sudden break of the ice barrier due to backward erosion in the ice tunnel and piping at the ice base. The worst case can indeed happen, process combinations can be critical.
Saas Almagell / Rottal On 21st July 1953, approx. 10,000 m3 of water leaks out of a periglacial tarn, then the outlet of a lower lying rock-glacier lake fails, initiating strong erosion in the steep, unconsolidated rock-glacier front (30 - 35 inclination) and a debris flow with about 5 10 times more debris than water in Saas Almagell. Severe events can develop from little causes, here in connection with the formation of a large debris flow. Susten / Stein Since 1940, a proglacial lake develops at Stein glacier. In the night of 29th July 1956, heavy rainfall leads to flooding of a construction site (excavation for a hydropower station) at the outlet with subsequent lake outburst. Lake level subsidence of 5.5 m, outburst volume approx. 750,000 m3, relocation of the lake outlet by 57 m, vertical erosion of the streambed 6 8 m. Proglacial lakes can be dangerous; interventions at the overflow are delicate and susceptible to risks. Saas Balen / Gruben Already in 1829 and 1868 sudden floods occur. In 1958, an outburst (150,000 m3 of water) due to overflow of Lake 3 happens without damage. 2nd July, 1968: outburst of 170,000 m3 water, erosion of 400,000 m3 moraine material. Repetition on 8th July, 1970: peak discharge 15 m3/s, lake level subsidence 7 m, outburst volume 170,000 m3, erosion 100,000 150,000 m3. Tendency of recurrence, outburst mechanisms can change (for recent changes and problems see chapter Case Study Gruben). Argentina / Plomo In 1934, an outburst of 60 million m3 of water causes a peak discharge of 3,200 m3/s (at a distance of 175 km) after the surge of Glaciar Grande del Nevado del Plomo across the Plomo river in its source region. Indications exist for a partial collapse (circular hole) in the ice barrier. In 1985, a 3 km surge of the glacier (advance rate of approx. 10 m per day) takes place with lake damming analogous to 1934. Triple discharge by overflow (?) without damage (peak discharge of 500 m3/s) Unpleasant surprise despite recurrence of a known case. Water pockets On 28th August 1978, water bursts out of Kin Glacier, triggers a large debris flow (about 80% of the total volume is debris) and causes disruption of the road / rail traffic between Tsch and Randa. In 1892, an explosive outburst of 100,000 m3 of water from a very small cirque glacier at Tte Rousse (Mont Blanc) triggers a debris flow causing many dead in St. Gervais. Non-discernible water reservoirs, disasters are rare but obviously almost everywhere possi - ble (Tab. 1). Tsch, lake Weingarten A relatively small proglacial lake at Weingarten glacier is dammed by a large and steep moraine threshold (Mornenbastion) with a slope of 30 40. The imminent danger due to the narrow freeboard, the exposed and steep location and the large amount of easily erodible material is long recognised. Mandated studies confirm the high damage potential, but no precautions are initiated. In the evening of 25th June, 2001, after a melting period and congestion of the outlet by lake ice, a partial lake outburst (only about 6,000 8,000 m3 of water) takes place, enough to cause debris-flow damage amounting in CHF 18 million in Tsch. Mitigation measures are initiated after the case.
b) Processes Reservoirs Reservoirs tend to form slowly (exception surges, water pockets?). Proglacial, marginal and periglacial lakes exist (dead ice, permafrost, thermokarst). The morphological ice-situation is crucial for the outburst mechanisms. Outburst mechanisms Generally: Impact waves induced by ice or rock or ice/rock avalanches, calving etc.: erosion at the outlet (moraine) can be triggered; small lakes can be completely squeezed out. In the ice: Sudden failure (usually limited to ice dams consisting of broken ice fragments, e.g. after ice avalanches or surges; but also due to temporary congestion of a subglacial channel), progressive enlargement of ice channels due to floating of the damming ice sections, or (rare) due to progressive groundwater runoff at the glacier bed, overflow (common for cold glaciers). In the moraine material: Several processes such as retrogressive erosion at the outlet, progressive groundwater flow (piping) within the dam or instability (landslide) can concur because a high lake level conditions all processes. Consequences Flood wave or debris flow (diffuse transition at water volume = debris volume). The characteristics of the streambed (rock, unconsolidated rock), the slope of the terrain and the outburst volume are crucial.
2.1.2 Empirical threshold values and models

Table 1 and Figure 1 give a review on the frequency and the prevalence of historical glacier floods in Switzerland. Flood events occur almost exclusively in summer months (Fig. 2). Empirical estimation formulas result in too high (upper bound) runoff peaks for dam failures in general (Fig. 3). The most important practical values and models for glacier floods refer to mechanical and hydraulic outburst mechanisms in ice as well as to the stability of debris dams (Fig. 4). There is no realistic prospect of early recognition of water-pocket outbursts (cf. Tab. 2).
110 events from 31 glaciers registered 3 events per glacier 31 glaciers of 1,800 Swiss glaciers involved 1 2% of all glaciers involved 69 lake outbursts, 35 water-pocket outbursts twice as many lake outbursts as water pockets approx. 180 dead due to lake outbursts, 2 due to water pockets
less than 1 dead per year since 1550 109 events registered 1 event in 4 years, thereof 15% without damage without remediated cases (Aletsch, Allalin, Gitro, Otemma (56 cases))
1 event in 8 years since 1950 18 events registered 1 event in 1.5 years, thereof 30% without damage frequency of damaging events 1550 1950: 1 event in ~ 5 years 1950 1979: 1 event in ~ 2.5 years
Table 1
Historical glacier floods in the Swiss Alps 1979. (Haeberli 1983 and www.glacierhazards.ch)
Figure 1
(Haeberli 1983)
heavy damage from mountain torrents, mostly in connection with heavy precipitation.
Spatial distribution of historical glacier floods in the Swiss Alps and the historical occurrence of
Figure 2
Seasonal distribution of historical glacier floods in the Swiss Alps. (Haeberli 1983)
Figure 3
are two populations of floods: those associated with a subglacial tunnel, and those for which a
Peak discharge as a function of volume for outburst floods from subaerial lakes. Note that there
breach developed in the ice dam. Best-fit regression lines for the two populations are shown, along with a regression developed by Costa (1988) for failure of constructed earth dams. The 95% confidence interval for the tunnel-drainage regression is indicated by the curved dashed lines. (Walder and Costa 1996)
Figure 4
lakes. (from Huggel et al. 2002)
Various empirical relations between lake volume and peak discharge for the outburst of moraine
Table 2
Morphological characteristics of glaciers with known water-pocket ruptures in the Swiss Alps. (Haeberli 1983)
a) Sudden (mechanical) failure of ice dams For heavily broken ice (fragments of ice avalanches, surge glaciers) one estimates empirically (Fig. 4): Qmax (sudden failure) Vw/tw (1)
Qmax = peak discharge, Vw = outburst volume (in most cases = retained volume), tw = empirical time constant (mean duration of the flood), in the worst case approx. 1,000 seconds (cf. Tab. 3).
Year
Glacier
Outburst volume Peak discharge V (m3) Qmax (m3 s-1)

2,000 to 2,500 255,000 20,000,000 135,000 22,500,000 2.45 230 8,000 74.6 13,000
V / Qmax (s)
816 to 1,020 1,109 2,500 1,810 1,731
1974 1952 1818 1951 1935 Table 3
Bas d'Arolla Ferpcle Gitro Unt. Grindelwald Orba (Italy)*
Volume / peak-discharge relation for known sudden break floods. (Haeberli 1983)
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Due to temporary blockage of subglacial channels by ice fragments even in the following cases sharp peaks can be superimposed onto the discharge curve. b) Progressive hydraulic failure of ice dams This most common but not necessarily most dangerous outburst mechanism occurs in unfragmented grown glacier ice. Empirically it can be estimated as (Fig. 5, 6, 7, 8, Tab. 4): Qmax (progressive enlargement) 75 (Vw / 106)0.67

(2)
The localisation of the outburst channel can be effected with the aid of the iceberg model: reflection of the ice surface at the water surface and expansion of the vertical scale by (i/(w-i) 11 (floating equilibrium, grounding line) indicates where the ice plug first becomes afloat with rising water levels.
Figure 5
text for numbers and references. (Haeberli 1983)
Schematic hydrographs of the two most frequent types of glacier floods in the Swiss Alps. See
Figure 6
0.96. Dashed lines indicate 95% confidence interval for estimates of peak discharge (residuals are assumed to be normally distributed). (Clague and Mathews 1973)
Relation of total volume drained during jkulhlaup (Vmax) and peak water discharge (Qmax); r2 =
11
Year
Glacier
Outburst Volume V (x 106 m3)
Observed peak discharge Qmax (m3 s-1) 195
Estimated peak discharge* Qmax (m3 s-1) 205
Qmax / Qmax (e)
1913
Aletsch (Mrjelensee) Albigna Trient Gorner Gruben
4.5
0.95
1927** 1942** 1944 1970
2.7 0.84 >6 0.17
128 26 200 15
146 67 250 23
0.88 0.39 < 0.80 0.66
* after Clague and Mathews (1973) / ** water pockets

Table 4 Observed and estimated peak-discharge values for floods after progressive enlargement of channels. (Haeberli 1983)
Using an extensive data base and discussing possible outburst mechanisms, Walder and Costa (1996) provide the following relation between outburst volume (Vw) and peak discharge (Qmax) for mainly large lakes (cf. Fig. 4):
hydraulic failure (tunnel drainage)
Qmax = 46 (Vw / 106)0.66
(3)
mechanical failure and ice breach (overflow non tunnel drainage) Qmax = 1100 (Vw / 106)0.44 (artificial) detrital dams Qmax = 1200 (Vw / 106)0.48
(4)
(5)
Numerical models to estimate the hydrograph (dQ/dt) relate to the case of progressive enlargement of subglacial channels, assuming basic equations from ice mechanics and hydraulics. Water pressure depends on ice overburden pressure, the ice flow law and channel geometry. Non-steady-state discharge can be modelled on the following four basic assumptions: (i) (ii) (iii) the change of the channel cross-section corresponds to the difference between melting and (ice) contraction; if the channel stays filled (pressure gallery) the change of the channel cross-section corresponds to the difference between melt-water production at the channel wall and the change in flow (inflow/outflow) in the channel; turbulent flow in a pipe (empirically);
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(iv)
the work done by gravity and by the pressure gradient corresponds to the heat needed to melt the channel wall (heating of water and kinetic energy are neglected)
At the beginning of the outburst the channel contraction can be assumed negligible; melting dominates. However the closure rate of the ice channel increases with the 9th power of time. Peak discharge occurs when the closure rate equals the melting rate of the channel wall. Numerical models are mainly suitable for sensitivity studies (Fig. 7, 8 cf. Clarke 1982, Walder and Costa 1996, for a more recent overview see Roberts, 2005). It becomes evident that the temperature of the water bursting out (lake temperature) is a key factor.
Figure 7
jkulhlaup. (Spring and Hutter 1981)
Influence of the frictional coefficient in the Darcy-Weisbach law on the discharge hydrograph of a
Figure 8
Discharge curves for various lake temperatures. (Spring and Hutter 1981)
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In practice complex calculation procedures are rarely applicable because usually water temperature and ice geometry are unknown. If measurements are at hand it is preferable to extrapolate the trend (prediction), e.g. with (cf. Gruben glacier-lake 3, Fig. 9, 10):
(6) (7)
a and = constants to be gauged, t = time, Q = discharge, V = run out water volume.
Figure 9
and lake outburst event as a function of time with lines of the maximal and mean inflow. (Rthlisberger 1979)
Retained volume (left), respectively water-level altitude (right) of Lake 3 during the 1970 damming
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Figure 10
a) Volume and water-level altitude as a function of time during the 08/07/1970 outburst of Lake 3.
mined from water-level measurements; circles: estimated at the glacier; empirical exponential relation. (Rthlisberger 1979)
b) Discharge volume as a function of time on a semi-logarithmic diagram. Solid step curve: deter-
c) Stability and failure of moraine dams If there is a risk of progressive groundwater flow (piping), the critical hydraulic gradient (ic) has to be considered: ic = ( 1) / (1 + no) (8)
= proportion of the specific weights of sediment and of water ( 2.7), no = proportion of the volumes of pores and rock. Generally very high gradients are necessary. Danger arises from narrow and high ice dams (Gitro!) and in case cavities due to vanished dead ice or permafrost are present (Rottal?).
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For landslides in cohesionless material a security factor (F) is defined:
F = [(1 mw / s ) tan ] / tan
(9)
= incline of the sliding surface, = friction angle of the moraine material ( 30), w = density of water, s = density of sediment, m = relation between thickness of the water-saturated material above the sliding surface and the depth of the sliding surface (= 1, if all material is saturated). Hence steep sliding surfaces are a precondition. The erosion potential of relatively modest outburst volumes (below approx. 106 m3) can be estimated as E se 500 m2 (10)
se = trajectory length in erodible unconsolidated material. In Switzerland in rare cases an erosion potential of 750 900 m2 has been measured for moraine breaches. Out of the Alps, e.g. in the Himalayas or the Andes, enormous moraine breaches exist with cross-sections of up to several thousand m2. Erosion depth usually remains below 10 20 m, because in these cases the streambed is becoming paved with coarse blocks eroded from the undercut lateral slopes. A critical runoff depth is required to dig up and destabilise the pavement: hc 0.15 dm / J (11)
dm = controlling grain size, J = energy slope line (inclination) of the channel. Steep gullies are most vulnerable (for J = 1/3 and a pavement with 1 m blocks hc 0.5 m): debris flows can develop where the volume of entrained debris is similar or larger than the volume of water burst out (Clague and Evans 1994, Haeberli 1992). Failure of moraine dams often includes a combination of processes: piping, overflow at the dam, retrogressive erosion. Generally a disastrous outburst occurs if retrogressive erosion reaches the dam crest. As for the failure of ice dams the estimation of the peak discharge is subject to large uncertainties. Empirical data hint at a close similarity in the relation between lake volume and maximum discharge for the failure of a moraine dam and a sudden failure of an ice dam (Huggel et al. 2002). Considering the many uncertainties involved, the following simple relation can be used for the peak discharge (worst case) of moraine-dammed lakes: (12)
where tw = 1,000 seconds (empirical time constant, mean duration of the flood)
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Reaches of debris flows from glacial lake outbursts Models dealing with dam-failure mechanisms are in use for a considerable time (e.g. Fread, 1982). In recent years increased efforts were made to two-dimensionally model the impacts of, and the areas potentially affected by, flood waves and debris flows caused by lake outbursts. Especially for debris flows the processes are so complicated that todays models can only reproduce them insufficiently. Figure 11 shows a model considering only topography and gravitational distribution of a debris flow due to a lake outburst (Huggel et al. 2003). Because it is a GIS-model, it allows simple integration of additional spatial data, for example remote-sensing data. Hence glacial lakes identified by multispectral satellite images can be integrated directly into the GIS-model.
Figure 11
Model of various potential or historical lake outbursts in the Valais performed using a GIS-based ically by means of a Landsat satellite image. (from Huggel et al. 2003)
multiple flow direction approach considering the overall slope. The lakes were identified automat-
2.1.3 Measures
To be decided ad hoc. The following possibilities can be noted in abbreviated form: (a) passive: Avoid danger areas. Delimit danger areas roughly based on critical slope of channel (Fig. 12). temporary: reliable forecast necessary permanent: in historically inhabited areas difficult. Alps: conflicts with economical interests. Spatial planning. In developing countries often socio-economic problems (e.g. poverty).
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Figure 12
Extent of damage along the glacier stream for sufficiently documented glacier floods in the Swiss Alps. crit = average slope between the place of rupture (usually the glacier terminus) and the outermost limit of the recorded damage. Events are labelled as "debris flow" when the part by weight of debris exceeds the part by weight of water. (Haeberli 1983)
(b) active: Protective constructions (feasibility, proportionality) at the glacier: at the lake-side embankment to control the permeability of the ice dam, outlet or overflow (rock tunnel, ice tunnel, subglacial pipe). Due to glacier variations usually constant monitoring necessary. below the ice dam: retention basin, bed-load reservoir, channel safeguard.
Examples: Historical village centres (passive, but danger area almost everywhere), Gruben, Macugna (subglacial pipe, runoff, overflow protection on proglacial lake, channel safeguard), artificial reservoirs (Albigna!) as retention basin, Kin/Wildibach (bed-load reservoir). Laguna 513, Peru
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2.2 Ice avalanches

The reach of ice avalanches is usually much shorter than the one of flood waves. Ice-avalanche risks are hence restricted to extremely densely populated high-mountain areas. Large-scale far-reaching dangers can occur in connection with lakes (impact waves), earthquakes or volcanic eruptions.

(a) Cases Altels First incident 1782 (on 17th or 18th August): 4 people and approx. 100 head of cattle to die. 11th September 1895, about 5 am: approx. 4.5 million m3 ice slip on the 30 40 NW-dipping bedding plane of the high-mountain limestone. Bounce from the terrace of Tatelen, centrifugal wind throw in the Pine forest traces the air compressed and squeezed out by grounding of airborn avalanche, 1 km2 deposit area, 6 dead, at least 320 m surge at the counter slope at schinengrat, some cattle swirled up over horizontal distances of 500 1000 m and vertically 250 350 m upslope; largest known ice avalanche in the Alps. worst case (instantaneous large break-off of an almost entire even though small hanging glacier) Simplon On 31st August, 1597 an ice avalanche from the Balmen glacier (Hohmattu-Lawine) destroys the village Eggen with its 81 inhabitants and cattle. On 19th March, 1901 at 05:45 am: rock/snow/ ice avalanche from NW-ridge of Fletschhorn. 2 dead, 28 buildings destroyed, mountain pass and telegraph line disrupted. Approx. 3 million m3 material, but ice portion not known exactly. Horizontal runout distance approx. 6 km. Triggered by rock slope failure. Longest known runout distance in the Alps. Allalin 30th August, 1965, 17:15 pm: ice avalanche of approx. 1 million m3 from the Allalin glacier onto the hutment of the construction site for the Mattmark hydropower dam: 88 dead. The instability takes place during a surge-like accelerated sliding movement of the glacier. human activity in hazard zone; fast sliding as necessary (?) but not sufficient condition for an ice avalanche. Huascaran Already 1962 ice avalanche (4,000 dead). 31st May, 1970: a heavy earthquake triggers a rock/ ice fall from the summit. Approx. 6,000 victims or more (Evans et al. 2009). Town of Yungay completely destroyed. Formation of debris flow. Volume approx. 50 million m3 thereof roughly 10% ice. Mean velocity about 300 km/h, duration approx. 2 minutes. River Santa in the main valley dammed for about 30 minutes, the subsequent outburst silted the valley over a distance of 160 km. very large glacier disaster with far reaching impacts.
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Weisshorn 13th January, 1636: 37 dead; 18th February, 1720: 12 dead in Randa. On 27th December, 1819 an ice avalanche from the summit area triggers a large snow avalanche: 13 million m3 snow, probably only 5 10% ice. 113 roof ridges blown off by air pressure, but only 2 dead. 1972/73: Partial fall of the hanging glacier predicted based on measurements (progressive velocity increase). Partial falls in summer hence no danger for the village Randa (further comparable events in the 1990s and 2000s without damage). Winter falls are especially dangerous because of snow avalanches, prediction possible (?) on the basis of precision surveying. Gruben 1974/75 calving of small ice bodies monitored in connection with the safeguarding of a construction site for flood protection at lake 3. Again progressive velocity increase observed and according forecast made. But: recalculation (finite elements) shows that an ice body breaking off is subject to internal tension, allowing instantaneous break-off of partial ice masses. Forecast based on velocity increase is not completely reliable. Impact waves in lakes. Kolka / Karmadon In the evening of 20th September 2002, approx. 10 million m3 of rock plus about the same amount of ice break off from the hanging glaciers on the NNE flank of Dzhimarih-Khokh (Kazbek Massif in the Caucasus, North Ossetia, Russia). The combined rock and ice masses dash onto the lower lying Kolka glacier and to a great extent carry it away. This triggers a rock/ice avalanche with a volume of over 100 million m3. Peak velocities reach over 300 km/h. 19 km runout distance until damming and deposition of the avalanche masses at the entrance to the Genaldon gorge. Formation of a 2 km long ice dam. Immediately continuing mudflow with an additional 15 km runout distance. Complete destruction of the Genaldon valley, more than 100 dead. The worlds largest and farthest-reaching historically known rock/ice avalanche. First known case of a valley glacier to slide off or being carried off virtually completely. Complex chain of partially insufficiently understood processes.
(b) Processes Start zone There is a tendency for the events to recur because hanging glaciers may reform quickly as ice break-off is the dominant form of ablation for high altitude hanging glaciers (e.g. Weisshorn, Monte Rosa east face). However, warming trends (air, firn) may increasingly change conditions (cf. below). Failure mechanisms Complex stability criteria, the individual components are in the individual case hardly understandable (Pralong and Funk 2005). Falls of temperate (= sliding on the bed) and cold (= frozen on to the bed) glaciers occur. For frozen-on glaciers the critical slope of the bed is steeper than for sliding glaciers: static friction > dynamic friction. Avalanche trajectory and deposit area Crashing of components and friction characteristics are similar to rock falls, flow and pressure
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components (Altels, Weisshorn) similar to snow avalanches, for small volumes sliding and rolling takes place as for rock falls (cf. rock fall onto snow). The consequences are often especially serious if rock or snow are involved. Damming of streams and impact waves in lakes are the most important indirect consequences (Randa, Mauvoisin). The possibility of flow transformation deserves special attention (typically ice avalanche debris flow / mudflow) because the runout distance can be considerably extended. Combinations with rock instabilities in warming permafrost are of growing concern (Huggel et al., in press).

To assess hazards from ice avalanches it is recommended to differentiate break-off area (starting zone), avalanche path (trajectory) and deposition area (Fig. 13). Statistic data for break-off volumes, overall slope of the path and runout distances of known ice avalanches in the Alps are summarised in Fig. 14. These specifications already indicate gross potential hazard zones, but in actual cases the endangered area must be specifically delimited. This requires a rough differentiation of possibly involved processes.
Figure 13
Starting zone, avalanche path, runout zone and important parameters of an ice avalanche. (Alean 1984)
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Figure 14
Frequency distribution of volumes, overall slope and runout distance of the parameterised ice avalanches (ice avalanches from North America and Austria are not included; V in m3). (Alean 1984)
(a) Starting Zone The following morphological types of starting zones can be distinguished based on the subglacial rock surfaces often presumed to be roughly parallel to the firn/ice surface of steep glaciers. I. Ramp II. Edge/cliff I.A temperate I.B. cold (sliding) (frozen on) ice ice
The break-off volumes for type II (edge/cliff) are usually distinctly smaller than 1 million m3. The break-off season is not specified for types I.B and II (sliding process non-existent or not important) whereas large break-offs from I.A-situations are only to be expected in summer or autumn (Fig. 15). Largest volumes (> 106 m3, e.g. Balmhorn, Altes etc.) can break off in ramp situations. Stabilising factors to be assessed if any are: friction at the glacier bed (adhesion), tension strength at the incipient crack (cohesion, usually insignificant?), shear strength at lateral abutment, support from coldbased lateral zones (Fig. 16). An unambiguous assessment is extremely difficult, even afterwards. Sole documented rule of thumb: the critical incline of the sliding-plane increases with altitude above
22
sea level (in climatically homogenous regions): obviously the adhesion increases with decreasing ice temperature (Fig. 17): temperate glaciers can become unstable already at an incline of 25 whereas cold ones become unstable only from 45. But: hybrid types (polythermal glaciers, cf. Haeberli et al. 1997) are possible hence gradual transitions exist (e.g. Altels, Fig. 18). Reliability assessments for this rule of thumb cannot be performed because of the limited amount of data.
Figure 15
Seasonal distribution of glacier hazards in Switzerland due to different processes. (cf. www.glacierhazards.ch)
Figure 16
Scheme of stabilising forces prior to the glacier break-off: 1 = friction at the glacier bed (adhesion);
2 = tensile strength at the incipient crack (cohesion); 3 = shear strength on lateral abutments; 4 = support by lateral glacier part; 5 = support due to frozen-on lateral zones. (Rthlisberger 1981)
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Figure 17
Mean annual air temperature in relation to the slope of the sliding surface in the start zone of Alpine ice avalanches. (Huggel et al. 2004)
Figure 18
Scheme of the presumed thermal conditions at the glacier bed and within the Altels glacier before the fall. (Rthlisberger 1981)
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During the break-off usually hyperbolical acceleration processes of the ice mass can be observed. For the Weisshorn (Fig. 19) a prediction was made with (13)
v = flow velocity, t = time, vo and a = constants to be calibrated but the break-off takes place at a critical velocity (v ), in the case of Weisshorn at v = 150 cm/day (cf. also Faillettaz et al. 2008)
Figure 19
Velocity of the unstable ice body as a function of time; a-c = results of aerial photogrammetry (a),
geodetical measurement with laser geodimeter and theodolite (b) and electro-magnetical motion trapolated); A = actual break-off date (after SVZ 1979). (Rthlisberger 1981)
monitoring (c); d = curve with asymptote calculated in February by A. Flotron (dashed where ex-
(b) Avalanche path and deposit area During the fall the ice body is being broken up and loosened. The volume relation starting zone / deposition zone is on average 0.7. Maximal runout distances for the Alps range up to 6 km, but usually to less than 5 km. The average thickness of the deposit commonly varies between 0 and 6 m. Characteristics of the fall process and the avalanche trajectory can quite realistically be estimated by a variety of 1-parameter-models (runout distance), 2-parameters models (velocities) or more complex approaches.
25
1-parameter model (friction block) According to the sliding-block model (Fig. 20) the movement should be independent of the mass (increased friction for increased weight). In this model the friction coefficient corresponds to the overall slope (Pauschalgeflle; slope of the line connecting the uppermost failure point and the most distant deposition point).
Figure 20
Forces on a friction block.
FT = FGsin FR = FN
FN = FGcos
stationary motion: FR = FT, FGcos = FGsin = tan
Motion and mass are independent!
In the worst (known) case in Switzerland the overall slope is approximately 30%, i.e. as a rough rule of thumb the maximal runout distance corresponds to three times the fall height. For pure sliding on firn surfaces (srac break-offs on glacier ski-runs) the overall slope is virtually independent of the volume: a single block may reach the same distance as a large break-off body from the same starting zone. Outside the Alps overall slopes of up to 15% have been observed (Kolka 2002, Fig. 21). Flow transformations leading to an extended runout distance deserve special attention.
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Figure 21
Relation between avalanche volume and overall slope of the avalanche path for large ice-avavolcanic and non-volcanic terrain. (Huggel et al. 2005)
lanche events. Also represented are the empirical relations for debris avalanches / landslides in
If the cases of pure sliding are excluded (cf. the grouped overall slopes in Figure 22) a distinct dependence of the overall slope on the volume results, which the 1-parameter or sliding-block model fails to explain. Often empirical overall slopes are sufficient for rough runout predictions, because many of the involved factors (e.g. the break-off volume) cannot be assessed reliably and hence the worst case (critical value) has to be assumed. Empirical approaches based on the overall slope can be applied in GIS-models (Fig.s 23, 24, 26).
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Figure 22
Minimum overall trajectory slopes of ice avalnche events for variable trajectory conditions. (Alean 1984)
2-parameter models Models used for snow avalanches are applied. Such models involve a sliding friction term d cos ( = specific weight, d = flow thickness, = slope) and a velocity dependent turbulence term (inner friction) (/) 2 ( = average flow velocity). The second term results in a finite maximum velocity on an evenly inclined plane:
(14)
( = basal friction, = internal turbulent friction) hence vmax increases with d, i.e. larger volumes with greater flow heights move with a higher velocity, reach greater runout distances and have therefore lower overall slopes. With this, the volume dependency of the overall slope becomes reasonable (note: low values mean high internal friction). Along the trajectory the mass flow rate is assumed constant and for every section the flow velocity can be calculated as:
(15)
(Rh = hydraulic radius for a gully-shaped path). The runout starts at tan < . Based on an initial velocity vp it is calculated as:
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(16)
where the flow height d must be corrected for the lateral spreading of the avalanche mass. For a known runout distance an infinite number of combinations of / can be applied. Hence the only way of gauging the friction parameters is by means of velocity measurements. As makeshifts can be used: throw distances for bounces and surges at counter slopes and sharp turns (kinetic potential energy v = (2gh)1/2). Calculations with 2-parameter models indicate (Fig. 25) that high velocities can occur (e.g. Altels > 400 km/h). Margreth and Funk (1999) illustrate the application of these model calculations including dust formation for detailed hazard-zone maps. Figure 26 gives an example of a model calculation for a historically documented rock/ice avalanche.
Figure 23
GIS-model of ice avalanches from the Gutz glacier (Grindelwald) with a trajectory model and an mann et al. 2004)
overall-slope approach compared to a model based on the Voellmy-Salm approach (SLF). (Salz-
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Figure 24
Hazard-zone map of ice avalanches from the Gutz glacier (1) based on field mapping and overall-slope approach (Bieri 1996) compared to an actual ice avalanche in September 1996. (Huggel et al. 2004)
Figure 25
Bis glacier (North Weisshorn): velocities of avalanches calculated with different friction parameters. (Alean 1984)
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Figure 26
Model of the 1901 Fletschhorn ice avalanche performed with a GIS-based multiple flow direction approach considering the overall slope. (Noetzli et al. 2006)
But it is obvious that in nature ice avalanches stop where they should not according to the model (e.g. Weisshorn Bis glacier surface). Obviously the friction parameters along the avalanche trajectory are not constant. Furthermore, there are large mass losses along strongly concave path sections (terraces) and in crevasse zones or large mas entrainements (snow avalanches, erosion of firn areas/moraines, etc.). Additional basic problems for model calculations are: partial break-offs, breaking effects at path kinks, avalanche point mass (longitudinal dilatation of the falling mass) and others. Hence predictions are unavoidably semi-quantitative and have accordingly to be discussed verbally.
2.2.3 Measures
(a) passive Avoid the hazard zones estimated based on overall slopes. Permanent: Completely avoid the hazard zones: permanently inhabited settlements, but some Alpine hamlets and villages have always been within hazard zones (Randa). Permanent-passive is not always feasible. In such cases: Temporary: Evacuation in case of acute danger. Appropriate monitoring and prediction utilities are required. Partial break-offs and fast sliding are not unambiguous instability indicators, the crevasses often convey a misleading impression (when becoming snow-free), the visual assessment remains uncertain. Predictions based on the acceleration phase are neither 100% fail-safe.
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Risk reduction: Shorten the length of stay in dangerous areas, e.g. on ski runs, hiking trails, access roads (surveillance, warning signs, stopping restrictions). Prerequisite: risk acceptance (reasonable, but difficult to assess objectively, proportionality crucial).
(b) active Interventions on the glacier (short-term, because glaciers change constantly) and protective structures along the avalanche trajectory (long-term). on the glacier: preventive blastings only reasonable for small volumes (main problem = energy transfer of blasts). Cut-blast method (large number of linearly arranged blast-holes lowly charged) to avoid uncontrolled crack formation and uncontrolled follow-up instability. on the avalanche trajectory: diversion dams, discharge or (pre-) lowering of natural or artificial lakes. Freeboard dimensioning for reservoirs. Installation of drainage pipes or water evacuation tunnel in case of danger due to stream-damming.
Examples Eggen (Simplon), Yungay (Huascaran): Reconstruction of the settlement (permanent-passive). However, in both cases the new settlement isnt situated indisputably outside the danger zone. Randa (Mattertal): in case of acute danger evacuation of vulnerable village quarters (temporarypassive). Installation of a drainage pipe and installation of a water-evacuation tunnel in bedrock of lateral valley slope to prevent stream damming (active). Risk acceptance, but situation not entirely plain. Little Matterhorn, Titlis: removal of unstable ice masses on glacier ski-runs by preventive blasting (active), on Titlis additionally diversion dam (ice debris dam prevents skiing in danger zone!). Mauvoisin, Oberhasli, Laguna Paron (Peru): lake subsidence, freeboard increase. Monitoring of Gitro glacier at Mauvoisin.
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2.3 Length/geometry changes

Glacier length changes are of concern if buildings and structures at the glacier margin are directly affected but also because indirectly they can cause (or make disappear) flood and ice-avalanche hazards. Hence every long-term hazard analysis must be based on an assessment of probable development trends of the glacier geometry. During the 1970s, problems were caused by (re-) advancing glaciers. Since the late 1980s and especially concerning coming decades, accelerated shrinking if not vanishing of glaciers are realistic scenarios for most mid-latitude high-mountain regions (UNEP 2007).

(a) Cases Conflict situations develop in the 1970s when Alpine glaciers temporarily re-advance after years of recession and where structures were built in close vicinity of the glaciers. Examples: Findelen glacier Sets in a fast advance against a major water intake of the Grande Dixence hydropower company around 1979/80. The intake structure is reshaped for the ice to pass over and still provide water, but the advance never reaches the structure. Allalin glacier Runs over three of four water intakes of the Mattmark/Mauvoisin hydropower scheme for how long? Does a new ice-avalanche hazard develop in the steep parts of the glacier bed? Gries glacier In the 1920s the glacier tongue was still located at todays site of the reservoir dam. Could a readvance of the glacier challenge the operation of the hydropower station in the long run? Gruben glacier (Saas Balen) and Ghiacciaio delle Locce (Macugnaga): In both cases, glacier shrinkage since the Little Ice Age causes the formation of dangerous lakes; around 1980, the ice fronts advance temporarily and locally against sub- and proglacial drainage pipes installed to control lake levels (cf. also exercises and case study Gruben. Glaciar Grande del Nevado del Plomo (Argentina), Hubbard Glacier (Alaska) Dramatic development due to unstable behaviour: surges cause dammed lake (Plomo), advance phase of tidal glacier in shallow water causes blocks fjord (Hubbard-Russel Fjord near Yakutat). Columbia Glacier (Alaska): Iceberg problems (?) for Alaska oil-transportation out of Valdez because of drastic (unstable) recession (calving instability) of the large glacier tongue terminating in the sea. Ghiacciaio del Belvedere Intermittent extreme bulging between 2001 and about 2003, especially in the tongue area combined with surge-like acceleration of the flow velocity necessitates rebuilding of the ski run as well as repeated diversion and partly closure of the highly frequented hiking trail across the glacier. Formation of a dangerous supraglacial lake.
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Trift glacier and Lower Grindelwald glacier Rapid formation of supraglacial and proglacial lakes on flat glacier tongues in recent years. Danger of flood waves from impacts of ice and rock avalanches. Construction of a drainage tunnel at Grindelwald and of a rope bridge for tourists at Trift.
(b) Processes Stable behaviour Active retreat (close to equilibrium conditions) involves glacier thinning, slowing down of flow/discharge and melting away of most exposed (lowest) areas (tongue, margin). Rapid climatic forcing induces down wasting, disintegration and collapse with strong positive feedbacks (especially albedo lowering; Oerlemans et al. 2009). During the transition from retreat to advance, increased mass flux progresses down the glacier into zones of compressive flow (mainly in the ablation area) with an increased propagation speed compared to the ice-flow velocity, causing a delayed reaction of the ice margin with respect to the mass balance change. Full adjustment (new equilibrium) is reached after the (dynamic) response time. Unstable behaviour There are two contrasting forms: surges and calving instability. In the Alps both forms are atypical (exceptions: historical Vernagtferner, intermittent fast sliding of steep hanging glaciers; glacier fronts in lakes). In the case of surges, an ice reservoir, which built up in the medium term, periodically depletes through extremely rapid flow. The advance velocities can reach up to 50 100 m a day or even several metres per hour. The advance mechanism is dominated by sliding processes at the glacier bed probably related to continuous destruction of subglacial drainage channels and to the enhanced production of frictional heat. The repeat cycle of the process might be related to the replenishment of the depleted reservoir (build-up of critical shear stresses). The calving velocity of glaciers ending in deep water is approximately proportional to the water depth at the calving front. Calving glaciers become unstable if the calving front reaches deeper water with increased calving rates (recession from a subaquatic moraine) and break up in a rapid decay process until reaching shallow water again.

Numerical modelling of the reaction chain climate mass balance glacier geometry requires the acquisition of a full data set. As this is often not feasible, rules of thumb and models of variable complexity have to be used. In any case it is only possible to extrapolate more or less satisfying trends for reasonable climate and mass balance scenarios. Thereby the probability of the prediction does not necessarily increase proportionally with the complexity of the applied model. Four stages can be distinguished roughly: (a) (b) (c) (d) Visual assessment of unmeasured glaciers Rules of thumb and analogies for roughly parameterised glaciers Trend extrapolation of measured length changes Fully calibrated flow models
34
(a) Visual assessment During an advance the ice supply is larger than the melting, the tongue area fills up to a threshold of basal shear stress (model of perfect plasticity) (17)
(f = form factor, = ice density, h = ice thickness, = slope of the ice surface, g = gravity). A parabolic longitudinal profile develops because hsin is constant. Hence typical for an advance are: steep front, convex tongue, debris cover is shed and forms a moraine at the steep front, which can be run over by the glacier. Snow can also be run over by the glacier and then appears as a conspicuous white basal layer. The glacier portal is usually squeezed due to an increased overburden pressure (water pressure = 0 at the glacier portal). During recession the parabolic form of the longitudinal profile declines and becomes wedge-shaped due to lacking ice supply because the drop shape of the ice runs out and ablation removes nearsurface layers. The shear stress is no more constant but more or less linearly decreases towards the glacier margin. Simultaneously the accumulated debris on the subsiding ice surface starts to determine the degree of ablation, the glacier margin becomes diffuse, the building of dead ice sets in and the glacier portal may develop a striking tunnel shape, because the ice pressure decreases. Table 5 compiles visual criteria to assess the actual growth/shrinkage tendency of unmeasured glaciers. Single criteria are not always reliable. It is therefore better to employ combinations of criteria. Additionally an assessment is only meaningful for a time period smaller than the time the glacier needs to react on climate change, in the best case for a few years.
ADVANCE Characteristics Ice runs over plants at the glacier bed Glacier portal squeezed Tongue strongly bulged (paw-shaped) Advance moraine visible Tongue with many crevasses Run-over firn layer at the glacier front
RECESSION Characteristics Tongue wedge-shaped Glacier portal cave- or tunnel-shaped Surface concave (cross-section) Covered with debris
Table 5 After Mller (1988).
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(b) Rules of thumb and rough estimates for unmeasured glaciers and large glacier samples Based on a minimum of quantitative glacier information (maximum and minimum elevation, area, length) contained in detailed glacier inventories, important parameters can be rapidly derived for large samples of glaciers in entire mountain regions (Haeberli and Hoelzle 1995, Hoelzle et al. 2007). The following simple but most efficient approaches consider step changes between two assumed equilibrium conditions over time periods corresponding to the full dynamic response time (tr) given by the ratio between maximum thickness (hmax) and annual ablation (A) at the glacier margin tr = hmax/A (18)
The so-calculated response time depends on overall slope (Fig. 27) and is typically several decades for alpine glaciers. Over such time scales (half-century to century corresponding to long-term scenarios of climate change) the easiest, quite robust and fully transparent method is to assume that the mid-range elevation (maximum + minimum elevation divided by 2) roughly corresponds to the equilibrium line altitude (ELA; Braithwaite and Raper 2009). As maximum elevation tends to remain constant, minimum elevation rises with 2 times ELA. Assuming ELA to be 100 150 m/C and atmospheric warming in the Alps to be about twice the global mean warming rate, a 2C global warming during the 21st century means a 4C warming in the Alps, a ELA of 400 600 m and a rise of the lowest glacier ends by 800 1200 m. Already such most basic rules of thumb clearly indicate that many low-latitude high-mountain ranges could become (almost) entirely de-glaciated within the coming decades. GIS-based spatial models for numerous glaciers of entire mountain ranges use slightly more complex but still comparable approaches (constant accumulation area ratio for zero mass balance AAR0, Paul et al. 2007; Fig. 28; relation between air temperature, precipitation and ELA0 for zero mass balance, Zemp et al. 2006). For changes of the mass balance, stepped by small amounts b, the length variation L of the glacier after achieving the new equilibrium is L = Lo b/A (19)
Lo = initial length of the glacier, A = annual balance (ablation) at the glacier terminus. For spatially uniform b the advance/recession depends on Lo/A. Because Lo varies more than A, the absolute values of the length variation L are larger for large glaciers than for smaller ones. Figure 29 indicates the behaviour of three distinctly different glacier types from the Swiss Alps. The cirque glacier reacts virtually without delay on mass balance variations (firn apposition), whereas the steep mountainous glacier follows decadal and the large valley glacier even secular patterns. Morphological similarity is more important than the regional neighbourhood.
36
Figure 27
Response time tresp as a function of average surface slope a for glaciers longer than 2 km. (Haeberli and Hoelzle 1995)
Figure 28
Glacier extent for the year 1973 (all colours) from the digitized inventory and modelled extent for tion). The legend gives the colour that will disappear due to the corresponding shift in ELA0. For
the six shifts of the ELA0 using anAAR0 of 0.6 for the test site Bernina Group (see inset for locaan ELA0 rise of 600m only the purple glacier regions will remain. The background shows a Landsat satellite image acquired in September 1999, glaciers to the south (located in Italy) are not con(Paul et al. 2007) sidered. Abbreviations of glacier names are: R = Roseg, T = Tschierva,M= Morteratsch, P = Pal.
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Figure 29
Cumulative length variations of Swiss glaciers with different size.
38
(c) Trend extrapolations Crucial for the choice of method is the relation between the considered time interval (I) and the response time of the glacier (tr). Three cases can be distinguished: 1) Because the annual mass balance variation ( 2 m/a) is much smaller than the annual length variation due to glacier flow, the conservation tendency of the glacier flow can be used to extrapolate the simplest (linear) trends. Such predictions are reasonable for time intervals l << tr, hence for large glaciers at most for few years. 2) For periods l > tr, e.g. several decades (lifetime of a large building, concession for hydropower schemes) a comparison with historical stages is recommended (e.g. maximum of 1850 according to moraines and historical maps, respective allocation for future minimum stages). 3) For periods l smaller but comparable to tr (one to a few decades) simple procedures with rough development scenarios can be applied. Depending on the measurements at hand the choice is: [i] Cross section across the tongue and length variations measured repeatedly (Fig.s 30 32): (20)
with dxi = length change at the time i, dQi = flow-rate change at the time i, Hi-1 = ice thickness at the start-off time of the model at the time i 1, Li-1 = overall length of the glacier tongue at the time i 1, o = average basal shear stress along the considered section of the profile, = ice density, g = gravity, a and b* = statistical adjustment factors.
Figure 30
Scheme illustrating equation (21).
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Figure 31
Longitudinal profile of the Gruben glacier at lake 3 (Startpunkt marks the starting point for the calculated model). (Mller 1988)
40
Figure 32
Length-variation predictions along the longitudinal profile no. 5 of Gruben glacier. The alternatives
1 10 indicate the changes of the ice-flow rate at the starting point of the model in %. Start of preice) on the opposite side of the lake. (Mller 1988)
dictions: 1985. The dot-dash-line marks the continuously progressing lakefront (debris-covered
41
The first term on the right side of the equation considers continuity, the second term the approach towards an equilibrium stage with constant basal shear stress. The glacier thickness must be measured, the flow rate is estimated based on (21)
(n 3). This method is rough but a realistic possibility to make use of limited local data sets. [ii] Measured time series of length variation (L), time series of appropriate climate parameters (primarily summer temperature) or mass balance from the surroundings available. The best correlation between the time series L (t) and the balances b(t-i), resp. climate values are looked for: (22)
This simulates the delayed influence of past years on the behaviour of the glacier terminus. The time series must be considerably longer than t, but even then the correlation patterns might not be significant for the glacier (unstable response time). All trend extrapolations are only reasonable if the conditions in the glacier forefield are sufficiently homogeneous (i.e. no lakes etc.!). In principle: the longer the measurement period the more accurate the prediction. Measured and reconstructed mass and volume changes are available from solution of equation (19) for b (Haeberli and Hoelzle 1995), mass/energy balance models calibrated with photogrammetric mapping (Fig. 33, Huss et al. 2008a) or from DEM-differencing (for the Alps: Paul and Haeberli 2008; Fig. 34).
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Figure 33
Reconstructed mass balances for glaciers in the Swiss Alps. (Huss et al. 2008a)
Figure 34
DEM difference image (SRTM3-DEM25) depicting glacier elevation changes from c. 1985 to 1999
in the region around Aletsch and Rhone glaciers (see Figure 3 for location). Glacier outlines from 1973 (black) and data voids including a 50 m buffer zone (grey) are also shown. (Paul and Haeberli 2008)
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(d) Flow models Complex 2D and 3D flow models are increasingly applied (e.g. Gries glacier, Fig. 35 and 36, glaciers in the Zinal glacier catchment; Fig. 37, Huss et al. 2008b). In contrast to approaches with step changes between assumed steady-stated conditions such models provide information on transient effects, which are important for large glaciers. However, basic aspects have to be modelled most roughly (e.g. sliding process, flow law parameters, mass balance gradients, calving mechanism). Furthermore, positive feedbacks during rapid retreat (subglacial ablation, collapse, albedo change) are not usually included. The reality is therefore likely to be between the simple step-change approaches and the flow models. As a consequence, application of both helps getting an impression of the uncertainties involved with respect to the selected climate scenarios.
Figure 35
Comparison of measured annual elevation changes at Boje locations to model predictions at the nearest corresponding gridpoints. (Bindschadler 1980)
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Figure 36
Terminus position versus time (years since 1978) for sudden and long-term climatic changes: a) SS, constant climate equal to past eleven year average; b) same as a) but with a slab of uniform thickness equal to SL1 one metre, SL5 five metres, and SL10 ten metres added in 1978 (t = 0), and long-term climate increased by a constant: LT19, 0.19 metres of ice per year, and LT38, 0.38 for the sudden climate cases is marked. (Bindschadler 1980) metres of ice per year. Terminus retreat from 1967 to 1978 is included and steady state position
2.3.3 Measures
(a) passive: In case of advancing glaciers often the only option: removal or abandoning of buildings (in the past e.g. abandoning of alps, emergency clearing of woodland). (b) active Reconstruction of installations (e.g. water reservoirs), installation of drainage pipes in case of danger of river damming and lake formation. Ice reduction or blasting only modestly possible. (c) long-term scenarios GIS-based spatial models help assessing consequences of expected changes in mountain glacierisation as related to realistic climate scenarios for the coming decades: topographies without glaciers can be modelled and sites with newly forming lakes in now subglacial but to be exposed bed overdeepenings can be anticipated (Fig. 38; Linsbauer et al. 2009, Frey et al., 2010).
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Figure 37
Simulation of potential future glacier evolution in the Zinal catchment area using a flow model. (Huss et al. 2008b)
Figure 38
Input data and modelled glacier bed topographies with detected overdeepenings (potential lake formation sites) in the Bernina region, Switzerland. (Linsbauer et al. 2009)
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2.4 Hazard management concepts and integral risk assessment

2.4.1 Definitions
The definitions are based on official concepts developed by the Federal Office for the Environment (FOEN; (Lateltin, 1997): Hazard = f (intensity, probability of occurrence). For intensity interchangeably magnitude is used. Intensity/magnitude: Extent of an event (at a given place), divided into process types, classified as low/medium/high intensity. Identification of the process type (e.g. glacier flood / debris flow, ice avalanche).
Process Rock fall Rock avalanche Slope deformation / slow landslide
Low intensity E < 30 kJ
Medium intensity 30 < E < 300 kJ
High intensity E > 300 kJ E > 300 kJ
v 2 cm/yr
v: dm/yr (> 2 cm/yr)
Strong differential movements; v > 0.1 m/day for superficial movements; displacements >1 m per event. M>2m h>1m
Potential debris flow Actual debris flow Sinkhole, collapse E M h v
M < 0.5 m
0.5 m < M < 2 m h<1m dolinas
= kinetic energy = thickness of the movable layer = thickness of the deposit by the debris flow = long-term average sliding velocity
After Lateltin (1997).
Table 6
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Probability of occurrence p: the chance a certain event happens (within a given utility period). Frequency (or return period) T: time between the reoccurrence of a certain event.
(23)
n = considered planning period (e.g. of a building structure), e.g. 30 or 50 years.
Probability Verbally Using as an example a planning period of 50 years: 100 to 82 % 82 to 40% 40 to 15 %

After Lateltin (1997).
Return period Return period as a scale of probability: 1 to 30 years 30 to 100 years 100 to 300 years
High Medium Low

Table 7
Indicator Dam type
Attribute ice moraine bedrock low medium high small, 0.1 - 0.2 medium, 0.2 - 0.5 large, > 0.5 frequent / large volume sporadic / medium volume unlikely / small volume
Qualitative probability high medium to high low high medium low high medium low high medium low high medium low
Freeboard to dam height ratio
Dam width to height ratio
Impact waves by ice/rock falls reaching the lake
Extreme meteorological events frequent (high temperature/precipitasporadic tion) unlikely

Table 8
Derivation of the occurrence probability of a glacial lake outburst based on different criteria. (from Huggel et al. 2004)
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2.4.2 Special characteristics of glacial hazards

With respect to their frequency glacier hazards can be divided as follows: singular events (e.g. complete failure/breakdown of a moraine dam) first-time events (e.g. new formation of a glacial lake and subsequent outburst) repeated events (e.g. ice falls, ice-dammed lakes with periodic outbursts)
To define a repeat period for glacier hazards is often not sensible, the probability of occurrence is a more reasonable measure. Usually a negative non-linear relation is used to represent return period and magnitude of hazards such as earthquakes, floods but also debris flows (i.e. the larger the event the more unlikely it is). Many risk assessments are based on this relation. However, such relations require the system to remain steady. But for glacier hazards this cant be assumed (strong dynamics of glacial and periglacial systems due to climate changes: glacier recession, degradation of permafrost, etc.). Therefore and because of the above listed characteristics such a relation is normally not to be applied for glacier hazards.
2.4.3 Hazard maps

In Switzerland hazard index maps and hazard maps are distinguished: Hazard index map: Rough overview on danger situation with indication of hazardous process, but usually without danger level. Scale 1:10,000 to 1:50,000, regions or whole cantons. Basis for cantonal structure plans.
Hazard map: Precise information on hazardous processes, spatial extent and danger levels with detailed documentation (hazard based on a combination of processes). Scale 1:2,000 to 1:10,000, for areas populated, developed or to develop. Basis for cantonal structure plans and communal zone use planning as well as for protective measures. Institutional implementation: participative process of integrating the hazard map into the communal zone use planning on local authority level. Only in the form of a communal zone use plan legally binding.
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2.4.4 Practical hazard assessment

Hazard index map: Spatial delimitation of the impact range of individual hazardous processes according to past events, inventories, model calculations, field assessments. Hazard map: Classification of relevant areas into different hazard levels according to the intensity-probability-diagram (Fig. 39):
Hazard level Red Blue Yellow Yellow-White White

* according to current knowledge Table 9 After FOWG, 2001.
Factual meaning High hazard Medium hazard Low hazard Residual hazard No hazard*
Relevance to spatial planning Ban zone Order zone Indication zone Indication zone No restrictions
Figure 39
Intensity-probability-diagram to determine the hazard level. (after Raetzo et al. 2002)
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2.4.5 Risk
Risk = f (hazard, damage potential) A risk can be described as the coincidence of a hazardous process with damage potential. Classification of risk from the point of view of hazard concepts and management (Fig.s 40, 41).
Figure 40
Hazard and risk potential. (after Kienholz et al. 2003)
Figure 41
Scheme of hazard and risk evaluation and risk management. (Huggel 2004)
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2.4.6 Comprehensive hazard assessment

Major damage events, concession requests and environmental impact assessments (safety of projected structures) create a demand for comprehensive studies. The historical experience is often not sufficient because in the 20th century known hazard areas have been recently developed. Such comprehensive glaciological studies aim at a rough overview prioritising drawing up monitoring plans clarification of responsibilities bringing to mind the aspect of risk acceptance
A practical procedure starts with the study of length variations. The following notes summarise the procedure: Length variations and geometry changes Period considered: usually some decades. For these timeframes compare historical stages (1920/1850 for advances, for recessions allocation to the future). Short- and medium-term estimations based on criterions, empirical values and comparable cases, trend extrapolations (in cases where measurements exist). Start measurements in case flow models might become necessary. Ice avalanches (for current and future glacier stages) Primary hazards: where are the probable break-off situations (edges, ramps, ice temperature); what volumes might break off, what is the runout distance (overall slope)? Secondary hazards: can extreme snow avalanches be triggered, could flood waves in lakes develop or dams build up, streams be blocked / dammed? Floods (for current and future glacier stages) Often a vital basic risk: water pockets and sudden blocking of glacier drainage channels seldom lead to major damages, but they are unpredictable and can generally occur everywhere. Glacial lakes: morphological situation, tendency of developments, possible outburst mechanisms. Assessment of discharge peaks, erosion capacity, propagation processes (flood wave, debris flow), runout distance considering damage and hazards.
The three flowcharts (Fig.s 42 44) guide through the procedure of practical hazard assessment of length variations, ice falls and floods. For a comprehensive hazard assessment it is important to consider rather possible process combinations instead of single isolated hazards. Therefore the flowcharts point out these interactions.
Figure 42
Are there any surge-events known from this glacier? NO stable length variations Long-term predictions: What range is covered by historical extents? YES Recession Does the glacier advance over an edge in the terrain? YES Ice falls Could the glacier dam proglacial or marginal lakes? YES Could the advancing glacier imperil installations? YES Consider the possibility of outbursting water pockets! YES Glacial flood Precautions Glacial flood Advance instable length variations (surge) Does the glacier advance surgelike over an edge in the terrain? YES Can the surge cause damming (streams, divide of lakes, damming after heavy precipitation)? YES Could the advancing glacier imperil installations? YES Consider the possibility of outbursting water pockets! YES YES YES YES YES Rock falls YES Debris flows
Short-/medium-term predictions: Are there any visible indications of recession/advance?
Does the glacier retreat over an edge in the terrain?
Flowchart to assess hazards of glacial length variations.
Could the recession cause peri- or proglacial lakes (e.g. in the tongue basin)?
Consider the possibility of outbursting water pockets!
Does the retreat expose steep, unstable rock faces?
Will the recession expose steep moraine banks?
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Figure 43
Flowchart to assess hazards of glacier floods. (Huggel et al. 2004)
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Figure 44
Flowchart to assess hazards of ice avalanches. (from Huggel et al. 2004)
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To verify the results compare with historical records (chronicles) and personal communications of locals. Silent witnesses: moraines, alluvial fans, banks of former glacial lakes, trees (age), old houses etc. Interpolation and assessment in comparison with other natural hazards (proportionality, prevalence): snow avalanches, precipitation floods, rock falls, rock falls and landslides, earthquakes etc. Example discussed: Macugnaga, Valle Anzasca, Italy (Kb et al. 2004). For the Gruben glacier comprehensive and long-term measures (specific observation, prevention) were taken as well (Kb and Haeberli 1996, Kb et al. 1996, VonderMhll et al. 1996). Kb (1996) illustrates and discusses possibilities for long-term observation based on photogrammetry. Slope instabilities due to ice degradation in the high mountains are treated by Haeberli et al. (1997) and Gruber and Haeberli (2007).
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3. Application of Remote Sensing

Monitoring of potential natural hazards in the high mountains can be performed among others by means of remote sensing, photogrammetry and geodesy. The specific characteristics of the respective sensors distinctly delimit the application and suitability of the different methods. The applied monitoring concepts and networks differ essentially from each other if they are used on one hand to identify hazards (rough, area-wide) or on the other hand to monitor situations rated as potentially dangerous (specific, detailed). Especially methods of the aerial photogrammetry have proved to be successful for targeted early detection of glacial and permafrost-induced natural hazards. To monitor dangerous situations, i.e. to identify the definite release of an event, usually remote sensing and photogrammetry are not suitable because of the low time-resolution ( e.g. automated geodetic methods). In any case, all applied monitoring methods, their links to monitoring concepts and the desired outcomes, e.g. concerning required accuracy or the processes to be monitored, must be compatible!
3.1 Remote sensing

Classification of the sensors among others by sensor carrier, platform (satellite, airplane) passive (photographic, Multispectral Scanner (MSS), CCD-scanner and -camera) and active (radar, laser) spectral range (visible light, infrared (IR), separate colour bands, panchromatic (PAN), microwave) spatial and temporal resolution (ground resolution, re-visiting cycles)
Some platforms/sensors and applications: Landsat Sensor MSS (4 bands, spatial resolution 60 m x 60 m) and TM, resp. ETM+ (7 bands, spatial resolution 30 m x 30 m, panchromatic 15 m x 15 m), visible and IR, temporal resolution: every 16 days. Application: Survey and monitoring of larger areas; retrospective analysis of natural disasters; for areas without other available data; clouds(!) Examples Identification of potentially dangerous glacial and periglacial lakes (Visper valleys, Switzerland) Reconstruction of a surge (Plomo, Argentina, cf. chapter 2.1.1 and 2.3.1) ASTER On the satellite Terra (USA, Japan). 4 bands visible and near IR (spatial resolution 15 m), 6 bands short-wave IR (30 m), 5 bands thermal IR (90 m). Along-track stereo images, allows generation of DTMs (digital terrain model). Due to the possibility to pivot the sensor, in case of urgency every 2 to 3 days images can be taken. Application: automated glacier classification, glacial lake detection and monitoring, volcanological applications (e.g. thermal features), ice avalanche and lake outburst models by means of DTM generated from stereo images.
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SPOT 3 bands, spatial resolution 20 m x 20 m; panchromatic, spatial resolution 10 m x 10 m, for SPOT-5 up to 5 m multispectral and 2.5 m panchromatic; revisit time 26 days, can be reduced. Application: similar to Landsat, but improved panchromatic resolution possibility to merge with Landsat. With 2.5 m resolution in the range of the modern, highresolution, commercial sensors. Examples Identification of potentially dangerous glacial and periglacial lakes (Visper valleys, Switzerland) Investigation of damage extent. Analysis of avalanche / debris flow paths High resolution sensors (IKONOS, QuickBird, WorldView) Commercial US-satellites with resolutions in metre-range, multispectral 2.5 to 4 m, panchromatic 0.6 1 m. 3 true colour bands, 1 near-IR band; high prices for images, acquires images also on special request. Application: comparable to aerial images, e.g. to analyse start zones of rock/ice falls; fall paths, damage extents. RADAR, Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) Analysis of the intensity (amplitude) and/or the phase of the reflected signal; satellite-based: e.g. ERS, Envisat, ALOS/Palsar, resolution up to approx. 30 m, Spaceborne Imaging Radar C/X band SAR (space shuttle), resolution up to 10 m. airborne: resolution down to few decimetres (!); Application: amplitude images, change detection, INSAR (SAR-Interferometry: DTM, surface offsets); microwaves penetrate clouds (!). Laserscanner Airborne; laser-sampling of the surface in swathes of few 100 m width; high resolution (decimetres!), also applicable in steep terrain. Application: DTM.
3.2 Photogrammetry for early detection of glacier- and

permafrost-induced natural hazards

Length/geometry changes Repeated determination of glacier contours, DTMs or elevation profiles; possibly also movement monitoring visual evaluation of the results up to the use of the results as input-values in flow models. Glacier advance / retreats. Examples: Different cases discussed in chapter 2.3; Gruben (chapter 4.3). Ice avalanches Multitemporal DTM, elevation profiles, crevasse analysis, movements. evaluation of potential break-off volumes, changes of the geometry of a hanging glacier and of the break-off front, formation of large crevasses, measurement of flow velocities at the front, glacier advance / recession at dangerous edge situations. It is usually not practicable to use photogrammetry for high-frequency measurements for velocities of potential ice break-off to extrapolate and predict avalanche dates ( geodesy). Steep glaciers are poorly visible on aerial images because of the slope and shadows; often
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snow covered. Example: hanging glacier on the west flank of Eiger (cf. chapter 2.2). Flood Multitemporal layout evaluation, elevation evaluation, DTM, movements, interpretation. Detection of lake formation; changes of the lake outline and of the water level; formation and development of ice dams, subsidences within damming moraines (permafrost degradation, dead ice), analysis of transport paths and sedimentation basins of floods, resp. debris flows. Example: Gruben (chapter 4.3). Start zones of debris flows and slope instabilities in permafrost Multitemporal DTM, movement monitoring. Subsidence due to melting of dead ice and permafrost degradation, frost heave, transport of unconsolidated material in debris flow channels. Possibly the accuracy of photogrammetry is not sufficient ( geodesy). Potentially no subsidence after melting of non-ice-supersatu- rated permafrost! Example: Schafberg / Pontresina Landslides and slumps etc. Multitemporal DTM, movement monitoring. Subsidence, heave, slips. Photogrammetry for a first analysis. Small displacements and a better temporal resolution often require geodetic methods. Example: rock slump at Aletsch glacier.
3.3 Satellite remote sensing to assess glacier-induced natural

hazards
Length/geometry changes Automated classification of glacier extents, depending on spatial resolution of the sensor at an interval of few years. Measurement of ice-flow velocities possible (e.g. ASTER). DTMs derived from space-borne sensors (e.g. ASTER, SRTM, ALOS) allow monitoring over decadal time periods (errors in the range of several meters). Example: New Swiss Glacier Inventory Ice avalanches In combination with DTM identification of steep glaciers potentially at risk of break-off. Detection of recent ice-fall events. Detailed investigations of break-off zone, crevasses etc. only with highresolution sensors. Example: Caucasus-Kolka, Gutz glacier (Grindelwald) Floods Automated detection of lakes (multispectral) and of lake-size variations (multitemporal). Generally possible to distinguish different types of lakes (ice-dammed, moraine-dammed). Rough analysis of lake dams and of processes possibly triggering an outburst (e.g. rock falls, ice avalanches reaching the lake), as well as transport and sedimentation processes. Examples: glacial lakes in Peru, Gruben, Macugnaga
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Start zones of debris flows, slope instabilities, landslips and slumps Use of high-resolution sensors and DTM to detect of steep debris reservoirs, as they are potentially start zones for debris flows. Investigation of slumps and deformation processes in the range of mm to cm with radar images (SAR, differential interferometry). Example: Gruben, Grimsel area
3.4 Geodesy
For some applications as to monitor potential hazards and for the early detection of potentially disastrous natural hazards in the high mountains photogrammetrical surveys are insufficient, for instance the temporal resolution of (e.g. for ice break-offs), the accuracy (e.g. for slides) or the applicability of the image resolution altogether (e.g. missing contrast on fresh snow). This means other methods of survey have to be applied. Terrestrial survey By means of combined angle and distance measurements (total station / tachymeter) 3D-positions of single points (!) relative to defined datum points are determined (new points). After repeated measurements 3D-shifts of the surface can be detected. Accuracy up to a few mm. At the aiming point usually a reflector for the measuring beam of the distance measurement must be installed (geodesy is usually not non-contact!). The new points must be durable and marked exactly. Sometimes the reflectors can be installed permanently. Pure angle measurements from several datum points can occasionally allow a non-contact determination of a new point. By means of permanently installed, automated, motorised total stations measurements can be repeatedly performed automatically. Example: rock slump at Aletsch glacier; ice break-offs (chapter 2.2.2). In recent years terrestrial SAR technology has been increasingly developed, mainly applied to slow ground movements (e.g. rock slopes, deep-seated landslides). Example: Monte Rosa east face Satellite based survey Any new points 3D-position, respectively its change can be determined by means of the satellite navigation system GPS (Global Positioning System) and an appropriate receiver on-site. In order to obtain the required accuracy a relative location respective to a datum point has to be determined by simultaneous measurements at the datum and the new point (accuracy: few mm). Applications mainly for unstable grounds.
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4. Case Study Gruben

In the area of Gruben (local authorities Saas Balen, Canton of Valais) many glacial and periglacial phenomena, processes and not least natural hazards can be observed (Fig. 45). The area has been the setting for many natural disasters and subject of intense scientific survey and research (cf. all chapter 2). Modern ways of early detection and prevention of hazards have been tested there (Haeberli et al. 2001) as part of the NRP 31 Climate Change and Natural Disasters.
Figure 45
Orthophotograph of the Gruben area, 1991.
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4.1 Past events

Already 1829 and 1868 floods reported. 1958: lake 3 outburst (150,000 m3) by overflow without damage. 2nd July 1968: Ice dam of lake 3 raised; progressive expansion of a subglacial channel; outburst of 150,000 m3 water; peak discharge 10 m3/s; flooding of moraine lake 1; overflow of lake 1; 400,000 m3 moraine material eroded, debris flow; regressive erosion in moraine bastion doesnt reach lake 1; serious damage in Saas Balen. Repeated on 8th of July 1970: blockage of the subglacial outlet of lake 3; rise of the water level, rise of the ice dam; peak discharge 15 m3/s; 7 m subsidence of the water level; outburst volume 170,000 m3; erosion 100 150,000 m3. After the blockage of the subglacial outlet of lake 3 has been recognised, (negative) attempt to blast an artificial outlet; (successful) safeguarding of the lake 1 outlet with gabions and blocks to avoid regressive erosion and subsequent outburst of lake 1. Tendency of recurrence for glacially dammed, marginal lakes; outburst mechanisms can change.
4.2 Comprehensive hazard review

Rough overview: length variations/geometry change: influence on the formation and development of glacial lakes; ice falls: probably can generate flood waves in lake 4; flood: due to different types of reservoirs with various hazard mechanisms and potentials. Priorities: As past events show floods from glacial and periglacial lakes have a high and recurring potential for hazards. Monitoring plans: Introduction of long-term photogrammetric survey series (annual recording) and various geophysical studies. Routinely visual survey by local (!) safety officer. Responsibilities: local authorities (safety officer); experts within the scope of a monitoring mandate (annual survey). Awareness for the risk acceptance: close contacts to local authority, local media, talks etc. First measures after the events of 1970: access road; permanent lake level subsidence of lake 3 by a drainage pipe below glacier in permafrost; earth dam consisting of coarse blocks with concrete overflow in front of lake 1 to avoid large-scale inundation of the moraine bastion and to increase the retention potential of the lake.
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4.3 Photogrammetric observations and geophysical studies

Moraine lake 1 Formation during the mid 20th century by glacier recession; important retention reservoir for floods from drainage area; structure of the moraine dam is crucial in case of a possibly recurring flood and to assess the stability of the dam. Refraction-seismical, geoelectrical, gravimetrical and hydrological studies; photogrammetrical observation of the moraine surface. Large-scale subsidence of the surface (dead ice, permafrost degradation), since 1970 only in the area of lake 1, but not on the moraine bastion. Vertical thickness of the bastion up to 110 m; average porosity 10 15%; locally increased porosity (even cavities) close to the surface; possibly groundwater on bedrock. Superficial water flow towards lake 1 mostly percolates into the moraine bastion before reaching the lake; lake only in summer completely filled; water seeps through below the artificial outlet and the rip-rap revetment.
Avoid large-scale flooding of the moraine bastion; overflow structure may be unstable during a flood event.
Glacier-dammed lake 3 Geoelectrics, georadar and borehole detection with hot water to determine the glacier bed in the surroundings of the ice dam (for the iceberg model); photogrammetrical observation of the lake surface and the lake level; determination of elevation variations and flow velocities of the overall glacier and the glacier tongue. Lake almost completely dammed by glacier. Since 1980 distinct decrease of ice velocities (50%); since 1985 distinct decrease of the thickness of the glacier and especially of the ice dam (up to 2 m/yr). Since 1989 rapid increase of the lake surface; degradation phenomena within the glacier.
Ice dam approaches its floating equilibrium despite the protective measures after 1970 due to strong glacier recession; outburst path into lake 1. Thermokarst lake 5 Formed in the mid 1960s between overthrusted dead ice and permafrost of the rock glacier on permafrost impermeable to water; photogrammetric observation of the lake and the surrounding rock glacier. Continuous growth into the dead ice due to thermal convection; distinct growth acceleration (almost exponential) since 1985; sonic depth finding of the lake floor; lake volume 1994 approx. 50,000 m3 + 7,500 m3/yr.
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4.4 Flexible protection concept and soft protective measures

Planning of the protection concept by local, cantonal and federal authorities, consulting engineers and glaciologists: measures to consider comprehensively the known and unforeseen (e.g. lake 4 and 6) hazard potentials; allowing for hazard variations (e.g. outburst paths) of large hazard potentials and consideration of possible chain reactions (!) (e.g. worst case: outburst of lake 5 into lake 3 outburst of lake 3 overflow and outburst of lake 1); prioritise interventions; consider large dynamics of the glacial and periglacial (possible developments are not long-term predictable, flexible protection concept); therefore protective measures (1) need not be sustainable on the long term and (2) must be adaptable to altered situations (soft protective measures). Pump out lake 5, because there is a significant danger of triggering a chain reaction and a threat to the construction work on lower lying sites (1995). Seal up the rip-rap revetment in front of lake 1 by injecting concrete and by lowering the overflow structure; hence increase of the potential detention reservoir by at least 50,000 m3 (1995). Lower lake 3 by means of a wide, open ditch at the glacier margin, capable to deepen controlledly by itself; largely filling in of lake 3 with excavated material (1996). Complete depletion of lake 5 through a ditch in the dead ice; ditch widens by melting (1997). Revision of the monitoring concept; renewed clarification of the future responsibilities. Total costs of the construction measures approx. CHF 1 million.
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5. Glacier-clad Volcanoes
Ice and snow on volcanoes conceal a high hazard potential that can be mobilised by different volcanic activities. Most frequently they result in so called lahars. The term lahar means a debris or mud flow, composed of a varying proportion of volcanic sediments and water. A lahar can develop as a result of volcanic activity (e.g. because of eruptions) or independently (e.g. because of heavy precipitation). With runout distances of more than 100 km lahars are the farthest-reaching deadly hazard of a volcano. Glacier-clad volcanoes can be found mainly in an arc around the Pacific Ocean (Fig. 46).
Figure 46
Distribution of volcanoes whose historical eruptions have perturbed snow and ice and produced Volcanology and Chemistry of the Earth's Interior (IAVCEI) (1951 1975) and Simkin et al. (1981). (Major and Newhall 1989)
lahars or floods. The volcano numbering system follows that of the International Association of
Basically different kinds of interaction between volcanic activity and ice and snow are possible (Fig. 47):
Figure 47
Frequency distribution of processes that produced lahars or floods by perturbing snow and ice
during historical volcanic eruptions, based on 108 cases from literature. (Major and Newhall 1989)
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1. Pyroclastic flows (mixture of hot, dry rock fragments and hot gases moving with high velocity) and other ejections of hot gases can melt snow and ice and mix with it. This is the most dangerous kind of interaction because water from the thawed mixes additionally with volcanic deposits and can result in a lahar with large volume and great runout distance. Examples: Nevado del Ruiz, Colombia, Mt. St. Helens, USA 2. Lava flows at the surface can produce melt when they overrun snow and ice, but generally the heat flow is too slow to trigger a lahar or a flood. 3. Enhanced basal melting of a glacier (or of snow masses) can be caused by subglacial eruptions or geothermal heat flow. The accumulated water below a glacier may discharge suddenly subglacially. Thus flood waves or debris flows emerge (so-called jkulhlaups) with huge peak discharges (depending on the volume of the subglacial water reservoir in an extreme case up to 105 106 m3/s). Examples: Grimsvtn, Iceland, cf. also chapter 2.1.2. 4. Ash and lava ejections and sedimentations on glaciers generally dont cause lahars, but can lead to enhanced melting. Ash on glaciers and snow reduce albedo. Ablation is increased for deposits of a few mm, but it is decreased for thicker layers (> 25 mm) due to insulation effects. In particular cases (e.g. Ruapehu, New Zealand) eruptions of water from crater lakes led to the formation of lahars. Glaciers can indicate changes in the volcanic activity before the eruption (time-frame days, month, years). Especially the melting of a glacier indicates alterations of the heat flow conditions (snow and ice as natural calorimeter, e.g. Mount Baker, Cascade range 1975/1976: increased heat flow by an order of magnitude, then stabilisation).
Cases Mount St. Helens Pre-eruption Morphologically even, probably post-glacial cone. Stratovolcano in maritime climate. Temperate hanging glacier at the stability limit: large-scale landslides (rapid sliding) e.g. Wishbonde glacier (Fig. 48).
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Figure 48
Mount St. Helens before May 18, 1980, showing location of glaciers. (USGS 1981)
Figure 49
Mount St. Helens after the May 18, 1980, volcanic blast. The locations of the remains of Wishbone Glacier, covered.
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First quakes end of March 1980, beginning of April first eruptions in the ice-filled crater. Formation of a graben across the peak. North flank slips altogether roughly 100 m (maximal 2 m a day) northwards (Fig. 49). The glacier beds slopes were increased (sin 10%), warmed up by ascending magma (the heat flow at the glacier bed increases by magnitudes) and shaken by frequent earthquakes. Yet, no extraordinary ice avalanches occur. Possible reasons: Increase of the basal shear stress ( = gh sin, = ice density, g = gravity, h = ice thickness, = surface slope), too low for progressive creep, because 10% (corresponds to approx. 3 5 m increase of thickness for a constant ); earthquake induced cracks heal (refreezing after decompression) in the ice, but not in the rock (i.e. earthquakes weaken the rock below the glacier increasingly); For sliding at the glacier bed (ub m / (Pi Pw)) the effect is too weak ( 20%) or ambiguous: (Pi Pw) can grow with increasing water inflow.
Conclusion: Rock seems to be more fragile (less stable) compared to glacier when tectonically strained.
Figure 50
Cross section A-A showing change in topography from 1972 to May 12/16, 1980. Topography was produced from digital terrain models. Profiles are to scale. (USGS 1981)
Eruption (18th May 1980) A magnitude 5 earthquake causes the north flank to slide away in two pieces (Fig.s 50 52). Rosenqvist images show two large avalanches on the Forsyth glacier. The appropriate choice of the friction parameters in the avalanche model afterwards allowed to calculate the velocity of the two avalanches and to determine the time lapse of the image sequence. Approx. 100 million m3 of snow and ice were included in the eruption, thereof several million m3 liquid water and at least the same volume of strongly fractured and hence rapidly melting ice-mudflows down to the Columbia River. Many river beds were lifted strongly (Fig. 53), Lake Spirit was dammed up. A lot of ash fell on the surrounding glaciers (influencing the melting, Fig. 54). Velocities: > 150 km/h for avalanches on the hills, roughly 20 km/h for lahars less in the river valleys.
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Figure 51
Mount St. Helens area, Washington, showing areas affected by the May 18, 1980, volcanic blast (shutter pattern) and areas covered by volcanic debris (stipple pattern). Heavy lines indicate areas of mudflows and flooding in stream valleys. (USGS 1981)
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Figure 52
Changes in profile of Mount St. Helens during morning of May 18, 1980, along line A-A. century summit dome (light-dotted pattern at summit).
A) Before eruption, showing intrusion of cryptodome (heavy dotted pattern) beneath 16th-17th B) About 20 s after landslide began showing development of bulge and graben landslide blocks; explosions have begun on headwall of bulge block where cryptodome is exposed in graben block.
C) About 30 s after landslide began, showing massive explosions from side and top of fractured graben block. D) After landslide has exposed the main volcanic conduit from which a vertical eruption column rises to more than 20 km.
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Figure 53
Relation between river stage and discharge prior to and after the mudflows of May 18, 1980. Cowlitz River at Castle Rock, Wash. (USGS 1981)
Figure 54
Change in ablation rate of different ash thicknesses at plots on South Cascade Glacier, Wash., August 1980. An analysis of ash thickness between 2 and 5 mm may determine that the curve estimated ash thickness. (USGS 1981) peak is higher than indicated. Solid circles indicate measured ash thickness; open circles indicate
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Nevado del Ruz Pre-eruption Activity starts in November 1984, survey in July 1985, reinforced in September 1985 because of phreatic eruption. In October 1985 risk assessed and hazard areas mapped. No regulatory action by the authorities. Eruption (13th November 1985) Pyroclastic flows of a moderate eruption melt snow and parts of the summit glaciers. The release of a large amount of melt water caused the formation of several lahars moving along the drainage system east-, north- and westwards (Fig.s 55 - 57). The runout zone of the lahars reached in parts more than 100 km. The town of Armero at a distance of approx. 70 km was buried almost completely by mud. Altogether, more than 20,000 people died. The lahar reached peak discharges at about 10 km, but maximum volume only after roughly 50 km. The Nevado del Ruz event is an example for a moderate eruption with especially disastrous effects. But it is also an example of insufficient disaster prevention, in this case originating in deficient communication between science, public authorities and population. The Ruz disaster was the reason for the foundation of a national department for disaster prevention in Colombia.
Figure 55
Location of Nevado del Ruz volcano in the Cordillera Central of Colombia, and channels that conveyed major lahars. Principal lahar deposition is shown near town of Armero. Sample/measurement locations on channels are indicated. (Pierson et al. 1990)
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Figure 56
Approximate boundaries of ice cap before and after 13th November eruption and distributary channels that conveyed lahars. Approximate extent of pyroclastic flows, pyroclastic surges, and mixed avalanches is also shown. Data compiled from pre- and post-eruption aerial photographs Guali basin are modified from Herd et al. (1986). (Pierson et al. 1990) and field surveys and interpretations by Thouret (1990) and Calvache (1988). Lahar paths in the
Figure 57
Downstream changes of reconstructed lahar hydrographs with time for the Molinos/Nereidas, accounts or extrapolated from known arrival times at nearby locations. (Pierson et al. 1990)
Guali and Azufrado/Langunillas lahars. Lahar-front arrival times were estimated from eyewitness
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Nevado del Huila, Colombia Nevado del Huila Volcano is located in the Cordillera Central of the Andes in southern Colombia 200 km south of Ruiz. Before 2007 eruptions in historical times were not known. In February 2007, seismicity significantly increased. Two comparably small phreatic eruptions (VEI = 2) were recorded on February 19 and April 18, 2007 (Huggel et al. 2007). Large fissures opened in the summit region. The erupted material, mixed with snow and ice, produced lahars that travelled down the Pez River for more than 150 km. The second and bigger event caused severe damage to infrastructure, but no lives were claimed thanks to early warning systems in place. The assessment of the volume of the lahar is difficult but reasonable estimates are in the range of 30-50 million m3 (Worni, 2008). Some melting of snow and glaciers occurred but not sufficient to trigger the observed lahars. It is suspected that the expelled water is related with hydrothermal water reservoirs. In November 2008 Nevado del Huila produced a phreatomagmatic eruption that generated again a lahar. During this event a crater with an approximate diameter of 400 m evolved with formation of a dome. Observations showed that the glacier on the west flank was fractured heavily during the outburst. The lahar was extremely large with an approximate volume of 300 million m3. The size of this mass movement was similar to a large landslide-debris flow event in 1994 in the Pez River valley where 1000 people were killed. Thanks to the early warning system and parallel information campaigns with the local population only a few people were killed in the 2008 event and no people killed in 2007.
Figure 58
Schematic map of the Nevado del Huila and the main drainage of the Pez river. Also shown ic time scale: Q: Quaternary; QUpper Ng: Quaternary to Upper Neogene; Mz: Mesozoic. (from Huggel et al. 2007)
is the distribution of volcanic formations and the prehistoric debris avalanche deposits. Geolog-
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Figure 59
Nevado del Huila Volcano during the eruptive activity in February 2007. Strong generation of water vapor, glaciers are covered with ash (photo: INGEOMINAS, 23 February 2007).
Grmsvtn, Iceland In the Icelandic ice cap Vatnajkull large outbursts of subglacial water reservoirs occur periodically. Due to the geothermal activity of the volcano below the ice masses, large amounts of melt water gather in the subglacial lakes of Grmsvtn (Fig. 58). After a high enough hydrostatic pressure below the ice has built up to lift the ice cap, the water masses burst through (cf. hydrostatic failure, chapter 2.1.2. Note: in Grmsvtn outbursts have been observed before the floating equilibrium has been reached). Due to the large amount of retained water, floods with enormous peak discharges (prehistoric outbursts are estimated to have reached 400,000 m3/s!) can develop causing extensive damage on infrastructure and landscape. The last major outburst took place early in November 1996. Damages of estimated 10 to 15 million US $ were caused (roads, bridges, electricity and telephone lines). The peak discharge amounted to approx. 45,000 m3/s.
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Figure 60
Location of subglacial lakes at geothermal areas and sites of subglacial volcanic eruptions in Iceland, and rivers affected by jkulhlaups in historical times. (Bjrnsson 1992)
Table 10
Selected subglacial lakes in Iceland and typical values for their jkulhlaups (all elevations are given in metres above sea level). (Bjrnsson 1992)
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6. Cited Literature and Sources of Figures

Alean, J. (1984): Untersuchungen ber Entstehungsbedingungen und Reichweiten von Eislawinen. Mitteilungen der VAW/ETHZ, 74: 217 Aellen, M. (1995): Jhrlich erfasste Gletschervernderungen in den Schweizer Alpen. In: Gletscher im stndigen Wandel. SANW-Publikation, Jubilums-Symposium: 123-146. Bieri, D. 1996. Abschtzung von Gletschergefahren im Raum Grindelwald, Lauterbrunnen, Lt- schental: eine regionale Studie mittels empirischer Faustregeln. Diplomarbeit, Geogra- phisches Institut, Universitaet Zuerich.
Bindschadler, R. (1980): The predicted behaviour of Griesgletscher, Wallis, Switzerland, and its possible threat to a nearby dam. Zeitschrift fr Gletscherkunde und Glazialgeologie, 16/1: 45-59. Bjrnsson, H. (1992): Jkuhlhaups in Iceland: prediction, characteristics and simulation. Annals of Glaciology, 16: 95-106. Braithwaite, R.J and Raper, S.C.B. (2009): Estimating equilibrium-line altitude (ELA) from glacier inventory data. Annals of Glaciology (50)53, 127-132. Brugmann, M.M. and Post, A. (1981): Effects of volcanism on the glaciers of Mount St. Helens. US Geological Survey Circular, 850 - D. Bundesamt fr Wasser und Geologie (BWG). 2001. Hochwasserschutz an Fliessgewssern, Bern. Buwal (1998): Methoden zur Analyse und Bewertung von Naturgefahren. Bundesamt fr Umwelt, Wald und Landschaft (BUWAL), Umweltmaterialien, Naturgefahren, 85. Carey, K.L. (1983): Melting ice with air bubblers. Cold Regions Technical Digest, 83-1: 11 Carey, M., Huggel, C., Bury, J., Portocarrero, C. and Haeberli, W. (2012): An integrated socio-environmental framework for climate change adaptation and glacier hazard management: Lessons from Lake 513, Cordillera Blanca, Peru. Climatic Change, 112: 733-767. Clague, J.J. and Mathews, W.H. (1973): The magnitude of jkulhlaups. Journal of Glaciology, 12/66: 501-504.
Clague, J.L. and Evans, S.G. (1994): Formation and failure of natural dams in the Canadian Cordillera. Geological Survey of Canada Bulletin, 464. Clarke, G.K.C. (1982): Glacier outburst floods from Hazard Lake, Yukon Territory, and the problem of flood magnitude prediction. Journal of Glaciology, 28/98: 3-21. Evans, S.G. (1986): The maximum discharge of outburst floods caused by the breaching of man- made and natural dams. Canadian Geotechnical Journal, 23/3: 385-387.
77
Evans, S.G., Bishop, N.F., Smoll, L.F., Murillo, P.V., Delaney, K.B. and Oliver-Smith, A. (2009): A re-examination of the mechanism and human impact of catastrophic mass flows originating on Nevado Huascarn, Cordillera Blanca, Peru in 1962 and 1970. Engineering Geology 108, 96-118. Faillettaz, J. Pralong, A., Funk, M. and Deichmann, N. (2008): Evidence of long-periodic oscillations and increasing icequake activity during breaking-off of large ice masses. Journal of Glaciolo- gy 54, 725-737. Fread, D.L. (1982). DAMBRK: The NWS Dam-Break Flood Forecasting Model. Hydrologic Research Laboratory, Office of Hydrology, National Weather Service, NOAA, Silver Spring, Md. Frey, H., Haeberli, W., Linsbauer, A. and Paul, F. (2010): A multi-level strategy for anticipating future glacier lake formation and associated hazard potentials. Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 10, 339-352 Grove, J.M. (1987): Glacier fluctuations and hazards. The Geographical Journal, 153/3: 351-369. Gruber, S., and Haeberli, W. (2007): Permafrost in steep bedrock slopes and its temperature- related destabilization following climate change. Journal of Geophysical Research 112, F02S18 (doi:10.1029/2006JF000547). Haeberli, W. (1977): Experience with glacier calving and air bubbling in high Alpine water reservoirs. Journal of Glaciology, 19/81: 589-594. Haeberli, W. (1981): Morphodynamische Aspekte aktueller Gletscherhochwasser in den Schweizer Alpen. Regio Basiliensis, 21/3: 58-78. Haeberli, W. (1983): Frequency and characteristics of glacier floods in the Swiss Alps. Annals of Glaciology, 4: 85-90. Haeberli, W. (1992): Zur Stabilitt von Mornenseen in hochalpinen Gletschergebieten. Wasser/ Energie/Luft, 84/11/12: 361-364. Haeberli, W. (2005): Investigating glacier-permafrost relationships in high-mountain areas: historical background, selected examples and research needs. In: Harris, C. & Murton, J. B. (eds): Cryospheric Systems: Glaciers and Permafrost, The Geological Society of London, Special Publication. 242, 29-37. Haeberli, W. und Naef, F. (1988): Murgnge im Hochgebirge - Ereignisse l987 im Puschlav und Obergoms. Die Alpen (SAC), 64/4: 331-343. Haeberli, W. and Hoelzle, M. (1995): Application of inventory data for estimating characteristics of and regional climate-change effects on mountain glaciers: a pilot study with the European Alps. Annals of Glaciology 21: p. 206212. Russian translation in: Data of Glaciological Studies, Moscow [Materialy glyatsiologicheskih issledovanii, Moscow, Russia] 82, 116-124.
78
Haeberli, W. and Hohmann, R. (2008): Climate, glaciers and permafrost in the Swiss Alps 2050: scenarios, consequences and recommendations. In: Kane, D.L. and Hinkel, K.M. (eds): Ninth International Conference on Permafrost, Institute of Northern Engineering, University of Alaska Fairbanks, Vol 1, 607-612. Haeberli, W., Alean, J.C., Mller, P., Funk, M. (1989): Assessing risks from glacier hazards in high mountain regions: some experiences in the Swiss Alps. Annals of Glaciology, 13: 96-102. Haeberli, W., Wegmann, M. and Vonder Mhll, D. (1997): Slope stability problems related to glacier shrinkage and permafrost degradation in the Alps. Eclogae geologicae Helvetiae, 90, 407-414. Haeberli, W., Kb, A., Vonder Mhll, D. and Teysseire, P. (2001): Prevention of outburst floods from periglacial lakes at Grubengletscher, Valais, Swiss Alps. Journal of Glaciology, 47/156: 111-122. Haeberli, W., Huggel, C., Kaeaeb, A., Gruber, S., Noetzli, J. and Zgraggen-Oswald, S. (2006): Development and perspectives of applied research on glacier and permafrost hazards in high-mountain regions the example of Switzerland. In: Proceedings of the International Conference on High Mountain Hazard Prevention, Vladikavkaz/Moscow, June 23-26, 2004, 219-228. Haeberli, W., Clague, J.J., Huggel, C. and Kb, A. (2010): Hazards from lakes in high-mountain glacier and permafrost regions: Climate change effects and process interactions. Avances de la Geomorphologa en Espaa, 2008-2010, XI Reunin Nacional de Geomorphologa, Solsona, 439-446. Hoelzle, M., Vonder Mhll, D., Schwikowski, M. und Gggeler, H.W. (2000): Die Gletscher der Schweizer Alpen im Jahr 1998/99. Die Alpen, 10. Hoelzle, M., Chinn, T., Stumm, D., Paul, F., Zemp, M. and Haeberli W. (2007): The application of glacier inventory data for estimating past climate change effects on mountain glaciers: A comparison between the European Alps and the Southern Alps of New Zealand. Global and Planetary Change 56, 69-82. Huggel, C. (2004). Assessment of glacial hazards based on remote sensing and GIS modeling. Dissertation, Geographisches Institut, Universitt Zrich. Huggel, C. (2009): Recent extreme slope failures in glacial environments: effects of thermal perturbation. Quaternary Science Reviews, 28, 1119-1130. Huggel, C., Kb, A., Haeberli, W., Krummenacher, B., (2003). Regional-scale GIS-models for assessment of hazards from glacier lake outbursts: evaluation and application in the Swiss Alps. Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences, 3(6), 647-662. Huggel, C., Haeberli, W., Kb , A. Bieri, D. and Richardson, S. (2004). Assessment procedures for glacial hazards in the Swiss Alps. Canadian Geotechnical Journal, 41(6), 1068-1083.
79
Huggel, C., Zgraggen-Oswald, S., Haeberli, W., Kb, A., Polkvoj, A., Galushkin, I., Evans, S.G. (2005): The 2002 rock/ice avalanche at Kolka/Karmadon, Russian Caucasus: assessment of extraordinary avalanche formation and mobility, and application of QuickBird satellite imagery. Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences, 5, 173 - 187. Huggel, C., Ceballos, J.L., Ramrez, J., Pulgarn, B. and Thouret, J.C. (2007): Review and reassessment of hazards owing to volcano-ice interactions in Colombia. Annals of Glaciology, 45, 128-136. Huggel, C., Fischer, L., Schneider, D. and Haeberli, W. (2010): Research advances on climate-induced slope instability in glacier and permafrost high-mountain environments. Geographica Helvetica, 65/2, 146-156. Huss, M., Bauder, A., Funk, M., and Hock, R. (2008(a)): Determination of the seasonal mass balance of four Alpine glaciers since 1865. Journal of Geophysical Research 113, F01015. Huss, M., Farinotti, D., Bauder, A., & Funk, M. (2008(b)): Modelling runoff from highly glacierized alpine drainage basins in a changing climate. Hydrological Processes 22(19), 38883902. IPCC, (2012): Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation. A Special Report of Working Groups I and II of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Field, C.B., V. Barros, T.F. Stocker, D. Qin, D.J. Dokken, K.L. Ebi, M.D. Mastrandrea, K.J. Mach, G.-K. Plattner, S.K. Allen, M. Tignor, and P.M. Midgley (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK, and New York, NY, USA. Iken, A. (1977): Movement of a large ice mass before breaking off. Journal of Glaciology, 19/81: 595-601. Kb, A. (1996): Photogrammetrische Analyse zur Frherkennung gletscher- und permafrostbe- dingter Naturgefahren im Hochgebirge. Mitteilungen der VAW/ETHZ, 145. Kb, A. und Haeberli, W. (1996): Frherkennung und Analyse glazialer Naturgefahren im Gebiet Gruben, Wallis, Schweizer Alpen. Interpraevent, 4: 113-122. Kb, A., Haeberli, W. und Teysseire, P. (1996): Entwicklung und Sanierung eines Thermokarst- sees am Gruben-Blockgletscher (Wallis). UKPIK (Institut de Gographie de lUniversit de Fribourg) 10: 145-153. Kb, A., Huggel, C., Barbero, S., Chiarle, M., Cordola, M., Epifani, F., Haeberli, W., Mortara, G., Semino, P., Tamburini, A. and Viazzo, G. (2004). Glacier hazards at Belvedere Glacier and the Monte Rosa east face, Italian Alps: processes and mitigation. Internationales Symposium Interpraevent 2004 - Riva/Trient, 67-78. Kb, A., Huggel, C., Fischer, L., Guex, S., Paul, F., Roer, I., Salzmann, N., Schlaefli, S., Schmutz, K., Schneider, D., Strozzi, T., and Weidmann, Y. (2005a): Remote sensing of glacier- and permafrost-related hazards in high mountains: an overview. Natural Hazards and Earth System Science 5, 527-554. Kb A., Reynolds, J. M. and Haeberli, W. (2005b): Glacier and permafrost hazards in high mountains. In: Huber, U. M., Burgmann, H. K. H. and Reasoner, M. A. (eds): Global Change
80
and Mountain Regions (A State of Knowledge Overview). Springer, Dordrecht, 225-234. Kienholz, H., Romang, H. und Kunz, I. (2003). E-learning Kurs Natural Hazards, Modul 5. Lateltin, O. (1997): Bercksichtigung der Massenbewegungsgefahren bei raumwirksamen Ttig- keiten. Bundesamt fr Raumplanung (BRP), Bundesamt fr Wasserwirtschaft (BWW), Bun- desamt fr Umwelt, Wald und Landschaft (BUWAL) (Eds.), Bern. Linsbauer, A., Paul, F, Hoelzle, M., Frey, H. and Haeberli, W. (2009): The Swiss Alps without glaciers a GIS-based modelling approach for reconstruction of glacier beds. Proceedings of Geomorphometry 2009. Zurich, Switzerland, 243-247. Major, J.J. and Newhall, C.G. (1989): Snow and ice perturbation during historical volcanic eruptions and the formation of lahars and floods. Bulletin of Volcanology, 52: 1-27. Margreth, S. and Funk, M. (1999): Hazard mapping for ice and combined snow/ice avalanches - two case studies from the Swiss and Italian Alps. Cold Regions Sciences and Technology, 30/1-3: 159-173. Mller, P. (1988): Parametrisierung der Gletscher-Klima-Beziehung fr die Praxis: Grundlagen und Beispiele. Mitteilungen der VAW/ETHZ, 95, 228 p. Noetzli, J., Huggel, C., Hoelzle, M. and Haeberli, W. (2006). GIS-based modelling of rock/ice avalanches from Alpine permafrost areas. Computational Geosciences, 10, 161-178. Nye, J.F. (1976): Water flow in glaciers: jkulhlaups, tunnels and veins. Journal of Glaciology, 17/76: 181-207.
Oerlemans, J., Giessen, R.H., and van den Broeke, M.R. (2009): Retreating alpine glaciers: increased melt rates due to accumulation of dust (Vadret da Morteratsch, Switzerland). Journal of Glaciology 55 (192), 729736. Paterson, W.S.B. (1981): The physics of glaciers. Pergamon Press, Oxford etc. (speziell Kapitel 8 und 12). Paul, F. and Haeberli, W. (2008): Spatial variability of glacier elevation changes in the Swiss Alps obtained from two digital elevation models. Geophysical Research Letters 35, L21502 (doi:10.1029/2008/GL034718). Paul. F., Maisch, M., Rothenbhler, C., Hoelzle, M. and Haeberli, W. (2007): Calculation and visualisation of future glacier extent in the Swiss Alps by means of hypsographic modelling. Global and Planetary Change 55, 343-357. Pierson, T.C., Janda, R.J., Thouret, J.-C. and Borrero, C.A. (1990): Perturbation and melting of snow and ice by the 13 November 1985 eruption of Nevado del Ruiz, Colombia, and consequent mobilization, flow and deposition of lahars. Journal of Volcanic and Geothermal Research, 41:17-66. Pralong, A. and Funk, M. (2005): On the instability of hanging glaciers. Journal of Glaciology 52, 3148. Raetzo, H., Lateltin, O., Bollinger, D. and Tripet, J.P. (2002). Hazard assessment in Switzerland codes of practice for mass movements. Bulletin of Engineering Geology and the Environ-
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ment 61, 263268.
Rickenmann, D. and Zimmermann, M. (1993): The 1987 debris flows in Switzerland: documentation and analysis. Geomorphology, 8: 175-189. Roberts, M.J. (2005): Jkulhlaups: A reassessment of floodwater flow through glaciers. Reviews of Geophysics, 43, RG1002, doi:10.1029/2003RG000147. Rthlisberger, H. (1979): Glaziologische Arbeiten im Zusammenhang mit den Seeausbrchen am Grubengletscher, Gemeinde Saas Balen (Wallis). Mitteilungen der VAW/ETHZ, 41: 233-256. Rthlisberger, H. (1981): Eislawinen und Ausbrche von Gletscherseen. Jahrbuch der SNG 1978: 170-212. Salzmann, N., Kb, A., Huggel, C., Allgwer, B., Haeberli, W. (2004): Assessment of the hazard potential of ice avalanches using remote sensing and GIS-modelling. Norwegian Journal of Geography, 58, 74-84. Spring, U. and Hutter, K. (1981): Numerical studies of jkulhlaups. Cold Regions Science and Technology, 4: 227-244. UNEP (2007): Global outlook for ice & snow. UNEP/GRID-Arendal, Norway. USGS (1981): The 1980 eruptions of Mount St. Helens, Washington. US Geological Survey Profes- sional Paper, 1250. VAW (1990): Schnee, Eis und Wasser der Alpen in einer wrmeren Atmosphre. Internationale Fachtagung. Mitteilungen der VAW/ETHZ, 108. Vonder Mhll, D.S., Haeberli W. und Klingel E. (1996): Geophysikalische Untersuchungen zur Struktur und Stabilitt eines Mornendammes am Grubengletscher (Wallis). Interpraevent, 4: 123-132. Walder, J.S. and Costa, J.E. (1996): Outburst floods from glacier-dammed lakes: the effect of mode lake drainage on flood magnitude. Earth Surface Processes and Landforms, 12/8: 701-723. Worni, R. (2008): Volcanic eruption related impacts on glaciers and modeling of lahars at Nevado del Huila, Colombia. Diploma thesis, ETH Zurich. Worni, R., Huggel, C., Stoffel, M. and Pulgarn, B. (2012): Challenges of modelling recent, very large lahars at Nevado del Huila Volcano, Colombia. Bulletin of Volcanology, 74: 309-324. Zemp, M., Haeberli, W., Hoelzle, M. and Paul, F. (2006): Alpine glaciers to disappear within decades? Geophysical Research Letters 33, L13504 (doi: 10.1029/2006 GL026319). Zimmermann, M. and Haeberli, W. (1992): Climatic change and debris flow activity in high-mountain areas - a case study in the Swiss Alps. Catena Supplement, 22: 59-72.
(Figures without source citation are from the authors of the script).
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83
Exercise Macugnaga
Exercise 1: glacier flood 1. What types of glacial lakes can be found on the map and satellite images? ......................................................................................................................................................... ......................................................................................................................................................... .........................................................................................................................................................
2. What types of outbursts can be expected from these lakes? How far down the valley can a corresponding flood (flood wave or debris flow) cause damage? ......................................................................................................................................................... ......................................................................................................................................................... ......................................................................................................................................................... .........................................................................................................................................................
Exercise 2: ice avalanches 1. Which glaciers on the map have an ice-avalanche potential? ......................................................................................................................................................... ......................................................................................................................................................... .........................................................................................................................................................
2. What are the possible volumes and runout distances from these ice avalanches and what secondary effects must be considered? ......................................................................................................................................................... ......................................................................................................................................................... ......................................................................................................................................................... .........................................................................................................................................................
84
Exercise 3: development and monitoring scenarios 1. What critical situations can emerge due to glacier length/geometry changes (advances and recessions) of the Ghiacciaio del Belvedere?
......................................................................................................................................................... ......................................................................................................................................................... ......................................................................................................................................................... ......................................................................................................................................................... .........................................................................................................................................................
2. Name in total 3 4 components of a monitoring system for the Ghiacciaio del Belvedere, the glacial lakes and the Monte Rosa East flank (Ghiacciaio del Monte Rosa).
......................................................................................................................................................... ......................................................................................................................................................... ......................................................................................................................................................... .........................................................................................................................................................

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(Part I: NATURAL HAZARDS IN GLACIER AREAS)

GEO 415.1 / GEO 856 GLACIERS IN AN ENVIRONMENTAL CONTEXT

Wilfried Haeberli Christian Huggel Andreas Kb

Wilfried Haeberli, Christian Huggel

Glaciers in an environmental context - Natural hazards in glacier areas

Floating ice: Glaciers:

Glaciers in an environmental context - Natural hazards in glacier areas

Glaciers in an environmental context - Natural hazards in glacier areas

2. Glaciers as Natural Hazards

2.1.1 Cases and processes

Glaciers in an environmental context - Natural hazards in glacier areas

Glaciers in an environmental context - Natural hazards in glacier areas

2.1.2 Empirical threshold values and models

Glaciers in an environmental context - Natural hazards in glacier areas

Glaciers in an environmental context - Natural hazards in glacier areas

Glaciers in an environmental context - Natural hazards in glacier areas

lakes. (from Huggel et al. 2002)

Glaciers in an environmental context - Natural hazards in glacier areas

Outburst volume Peak discharge V (m3) Qmax (m3 s-1)

1974 1952 1818 1951 1935 Table 3

Bas d'Arolla Ferpcle Gitro Unt. Grindelwald Orba (Italy)*

Glaciers in an environmental context - Natural hazards in glacier areas

text for numbers and references. (Haeberli 1983)

Glaciers in an environmental context - Natural hazards in glacier areas

Outburst Volume V (x 106 m3)

Observed peak discharge Qmax (m3 s-1) 195

Estimated peak discharge* Qmax (m3 s-1) 205

Qmax / Qmax (e)

Aletsch (Mrjelensee) Albigna Trient Gorner Gruben

1927** 1942** 1944 1970

2.7 0.84 >6 0.17

0.88 0.39 < 0.80 0.66

* after Clague and Mathews (1973) / ** water pockets

Qmax = 46 (Vw / 106)0.66

Glaciers in an environmental context - Natural hazards in glacier areas

jkulhlaup. (Spring and Hutter 1981)

Glaciers in an environmental context - Natural hazards in glacier areas

a and = constants to be gauged, t = time, Q = discharge, V = run out water volume.

Glaciers in an environmental context - Natural hazards in glacier areas

Glaciers in an environmental context - Natural hazards in glacier areas

For landslides in cohesionless material a security factor (F) is defined:

F = [(1 mw / s ) tan ] / tan

Glaciers in an environmental context - Natural hazards in glacier areas

Glaciers in an environmental context - Natural hazards in glacier areas

Glaciers in an environmental context - Natural hazards in glacier areas

2.2 Ice avalanches

2.2.1 Cases and processes

Glaciers in an environmental context - Natural hazards in glacier areas

Glaciers in an environmental context - Natural hazards in glacier areas

2.2.2 Empirical threshold values and models

Glaciers in an environmental context - Natural hazards in glacier areas

Glaciers in an environmental context - Natural hazards in glacier areas

Glaciers in an environmental context - Natural hazards in glacier areas

Glaciers in an environmental context - Natural hazards in glacier areas

Glaciers in an environmental context - Natural hazards in glacier areas

Forces on a friction block.

stationary motion: FR = FT, FGcos = FGsin = tan

Motion and mass are independent!

Glaciers in an environmental context - Natural hazards in glacier areas

Glaciers in an environmental context - Natural hazards in glacier areas

Glaciers in an environmental context - Natural hazards in glacier areas

Glaciers in an environmental context - Natural hazards in glacier areas

Glaciers in an environmental context - Natural hazards in glacier areas

1927 1942 1944 1970