Russia Development Index 2012-2013 (Valdai Index)

Moscow, October 2013 valdaiclub.
com
RUSSIA DEVELOPMENT INDEX 20122013

Expert Opinion Poll of the Valdai Discussion Club
Russia Development Index 20122013
Executive Summary
The Valdai Discussion Club has held its fourth expert survey and has calculated the Russia Development Index for 2012/2013 (also known as the Valdai Index). The aggregate index derived from the survey results produced a value of 0.0. On the one hand, it looks like the negative value of the Valdai Index of the past two years has been reversed. On the other hand, this is in fact an indication that Russias economic, political, cultural and civilizational development is being restrained by a variety of trends that reflect the existing contradictions in Russias state administration system, its economy and its society. The negative trend persists in the Russian Political System module, one of the anchor elements of the index, with the results on last years level at 0.3 (0.4
in 2011 and 0.5 in 2010). As in the previous survey, the assessment of the efficiency of Russian political institutions and the public's trust in them remained the lowest. According to the 2013 survey, 70.1% of respondents believed there had been a drop in the effectiveness of the work of the prime minister, 50.6% said the same of the government, 40.1% of the president, 39.0% of the State Duma, and 32.1% of respondents of general jurisdiction courts and the Supreme Court. A total of 79.3% said public trust in the prime minister has decreased, 59.8% said the same about the government, 59.7% about the president, 56.3% about courts, and 55.1% about the State Duma. The party with the parliamentary majority (the ruling party) has shown critically low results for the second year running; although there is some improvement on last years results: 55.1% of experts assessed its effectiveness as low (as compared to 78.1% result of last year survey) and 70.0% believe that public trust in the party has decreased (as compared to 84.9% result of last year survey). Commenting on changes in Russias domestic policy, the Valdai Club experts said Russia had not seen any truly landmark events over the last year, while noting the growing social polarization and radicalization, which is becoming ever more perceptible. Many expressed concerns over weak nonparliamentary opposition. An increase in the influence of non-parliamentary opposition was mentioned by only 40.2% of respondents (71.2% in 2012 survey), and only 39%
Russia Development Index

0,2 0,1 0,0 2010 -0,1 -0,2 2011
0,2
-0,1 -0,2
2012 2013
0,0
EXPeRT OPINION POLL OF THe VALDAI DISCUSSION CLUB
The Russian political system

1,5 1,0 0,5 0,0 -0,5 -1,0 -1,5 2010 2011 2012 2013
be elected have improved amid a general negative trend in domestic politics. In particular, higher appraisal was given of important issues such as the extent to which the authorities observe peoples rights and freedoms (during the election process) and the freedom of campaigning, including unimpeded access to the media. The conclusion that the role of NGOs in Russias political system has weakened seems quite logical under the circumstances: 66.6% of respondents agreed with this, while 58.6% also mentioned a decrease in these organizations effectiveness. The survey has again showed that the roles of the Federation Council, the Constitutional Court and the Public Chamber in the Russian political system have remained at the same level as last year. It is worth noting that the experts have given a higher appraisal of the regional executive branch development. This assessment was probably driven by the authorities recent successful initiatives carried out in specific regions aiming to create new points of growth, as well as to get some new blood in local elites. However, many experts refrained from giving their assessment of regional governments because they vary greatly from region to region. The economy was given a negative score of 0.3. This result was largely due to poor assessment of Russias macroeconomic indicators: 69.0% of respondents mentioned a declining trend in most economic performance indicators including GDP growth, industrial production, investment inflow, and labor productivity). The experts pointed to the corrupt context in which Russias economy is stagnating, as well as to the fact that the continued economic crisis has weakened Russias European partners. They have also flagged some of the governments controversial moves with regard to a range of political threats. Harsh policies can scare away investors and make Russia a less attractive investment destination, they said. Negative assessments prevailed in the discussion of some specific industries.
-0,5
-0,4
-0,3
-0,3
pointed to growing public confidence in it (68.5% in 2012 survey). Moreover, 41.3% of experts believe that the non-parliamentary opposition has shown itself to be less effective than during the explosive year of 2012, while only 22.9% mentioned an increase in its effectiveness. More experts describe the non-parliamentary opposition as disorganized and fragmented. The parliamentary opposition has also lost some points, according to the experts, with 42.4% of respondents saying that its influence has decreased; 43.7% noted a drop in the effectiveness of the oppositions work, while 44.7% thought public confidence in the parliamentary opposition had declined. The assessment of standards of civil rights and freedoms has indicated some improvement since last year, despite the recent controversial laws adopted by the Duma (the NGO Law and the Law banning propaganda of nontraditional sexual relations among minors). As many as 50.6% of respondents said that standards of civil rights and freedoms had declined (63.0% in 2012 survey) and 55.2% pointed to reduced freedom of the press (63.0% in 2012 survey). The extent to which citizens interests are reflected during elections has remained almost unchanged although last year 57.6% of experts noted a decrease. Importantly, the survey results suggested that the right and the freedom to elect and
MOSCOW, OCTOBER 2013
The Russian economy

0,50 0,25 0,00 -0,25 -0,50
The Russian human dimension

0,50 0,25 0,00 -0,25
0,1
2010
-0,3
2011 2012 2013
-0,1
2010
0,0 -0,1
2011
2012
2013
-0,3
-0,50
-0,3
0,0
The only exception was the financial sector, which showed a slight increase in positive assessments of its development. The state of manufacturing industries raised the greatest concerns: 44.8% of respondents said the state of this sector has deteriorated. The modernization policy has not yet led to any tangible results. All figures regarding the progress of economic modernization (including economic diversification) were assessed negatively by most experts. This is probably the reason for the change in the assessment of innovative industries from positive last year to negative this year. The figures related to the investment climate suggest there has not been any significant change. The Investment Attractiveness for Direct Investment, Investment Attractiveness for Portfolio Investment and Business Climate indicators showed a negative trend. Foreign investor uncertainty is probably linked to political developments. On the other hand, the Level of Integration in the Global Economy, showed improvement probably as a result of Russias accession to the WTO, as did the Russian Markets Openness (for the same reason). The Tax Legislation Development Level remains in the same condition as last year. Amid these largely negative indicators, it is especially important to focus on some positive economic development. Commen-
tators emphasize Russias accession to the World Trade Organization (foreign ones for the most part), the economic amnesty announced in summer 2013, the introduction of the business ombudsman office and the successful holding of the APEC Leaders Week in Vladivostok (although the latter took place during the work on the 2011-2012 Russia Development Index). The respondents assessment of the Russian Human Dimension revealed stagnation at 0.0. This has in fact reversed the negative trend of the past two years when this modules score showed deterioration at 0.3. Environmental changes and public health were appraised positively. According to respondents, peoples welfare has improved and poverty is now a less acute problem. Opinions were divided equally on peoples safety/security. Interestingly, the change in the general level of education in society was assessed negatively, while the level of professional/vocational education was judged to have improved slightly. As far as education is concerned, the planned reform of the Russian Academy of Sciences and how effective it will be raised the most questions with the experts. In the Ideology and Politics group of indicators, experts noted an increase in the level
of patriotism and stable levels of compassion and culture in Russian society, while at the same time pointing to a decrease in feelings of freedom and mutual trust, as well as a critical decline in tolerance 71.2% of respondents stated that there was a deterioration in the general level of tolerance, including more than a quarter of respondents who noted a substantial deterioration. The growing feelings of intolerance towards immigrants (mostly labor immigrants from Central Asia) and the LGBT community have predictably raised the greatest concerns. The expert assessment of the Human Dimension indicators shows an even greater ambiguity. While most international experts observed some unacceptable trends in Russian society, Forbes contributor Mark Adomanis, for example, announced a humanitarian triumph based on the past few years positive demographic changes (referring to the reduction in alcoholism, suicide and murder rates). The Science and Innovative Development module was assessed at 0.0 for the third time out of four. Parity of opinions emerged on most of the indicators comprising this assessment module (or slight deviations toward positive or negative values). It appears that the brain drain is worsening: a decline since the previous period was noted by 44.8% of respondents. The assessment of the extent to which R&D results are applied in the economy caused a certain amount of skepticism among the experts: around one-fourth of respondents said the situation has deteriorated, while 40.2% have not noticed any changes at all and 20.7% said they didnt know. At the same time, 47.1% were confident that the government had increased funding for scientific research. It is worth noting that the percentage of don't knows was rather high on a number of issues. For example, up to 25% of respondents failed to assess the creative potential
Russian science and the countrys innovative development

0,2 0,1 0,0 -0,1 -0,2
0,0
2010
2011
0,0
-0,1
2012
2013
0,0
of engineering personnel or the level of venture investment in R&D. The final score of zero in Science may describe the medium-term development of the national science and innovation system for the period of 20092013. According to one of the experts who spoke on condition of anonymity, Russia appears to be losing, rather than gaining ground in reaching a take-off point for innovation. Efforts like Skolkovo appear to be far too little or misconceived. The government has not begun to figure out how to solve the basic challenge of getting the results of R&D to the commercial market. Russia in the System of National, Regional and Global Security has shown the highest score of all the categories, assessed at 0.3 for the second time. The experts positively assessed most of the indicators in this group: an improvement in the level to which the Russian Armed Forces are equipped with modern weapons was noted by 68.9% of respondents; the ability to respond quickly to a threat from abroad by 55.1%; the level of advanced military R&D projects by 50.6%; the ability to conduct operations in Russia by 49.4%; the ability to conduct operations outside Russia by 42.4%; military cooperation with foreign countries and organizations by 40.2%; the ability to combat terrorism threats by 39.7%; and external border security by 35.6%.
Russia in the system of national, regional and global security

1,5 1,0 0,5 0,0 -0,5 -1,0 -1,5 2010 2011 2012 2013
Russian diplomatic activity on the international scene

1,0 0,5 0,0 2010 -0,5 -1,0 2011 2012 2013
0,3 1,0 0,0 0,1
0,2 -0,2 0,8
0,1
Many experts have noted a cumulative effect of the efforts to modernize the Russian army, probably being impressed, among other things, by the increased number and scale of military exercises. Some experts have mentioned Russias positive role in the Syrian peace process, which contributes to lasting peace and security in the Middle East and supports a multi-polar world. One of the respondents said Russias growing influence in the system of global security especially stands out against the United States inconsistent moves in various regions, including the Middle East. The expert also praised Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrovs diplomatic proficiency. It is only natural that indicator for Russia as a guarantor of international security (including peacekeeping missions) showed weak growth in this context. In addition, the recent public scandal involving former Defense Minister Anatoly Serdyukov and his entourage has seriously marred the Russian armys image. The experts also noted the growing anti-U.S. sentiment as a risk factor. The score for Russian Diplomatic Activity in the International Scene has grown to 0.1 this year. Russias unyielding stance on Syria was assessed varyingly, resulting in a parity
of opinion on the role of Russias mediator efforts in resolving international conflicts. At the same time, Russias growing global influence was mentioned by 56.2% of respondents. Nearly half of respondents said there have been improvements in Russias diplomatic initiatives. However, the international perception of Russia has continued to deteriorate, although the figures are not as discouraging as last year the proportion of the experts who said Russias image had deteriorated shrank to 58.6% in 2013 from 75.4% last year. Russia has remained a supplier of highprofile events that are always subject to controversial interpretation and assessment; this cannot but affect the perception of the Russian diplomacy in the world. This year, Russias conflicts with human rights groups and the growing anti-U.S. sentiment both in the public and in high diplomatic circles, have certainly affected the indicator, leading to a negative value. According to the experts, the dramatic deterioration of Russias relations with the former Soviet republics, mainly Ukraine, is a serious problem. The experts also noted Russias active involvement in international organizations and its ability to maintain constructive dialogue with them. Nearly all of the indicators
related to international organizations have shown growth. It is also natural that Russias activity in APEC and the G20, hosted by Russia this year, has earned it the highest score improvement was mentioned by 60.8% and 58.6% of respondents, respectively. As before, Russias actions in some organizations earned higher scores than in others, with 41.3% of respondents noting its improved role in the SCO, 37.9% mentioned the CIS and 37.8% in the CSTO. Neutral scores prevailed with regard to the OECD, OSCE and UN. Unexpectedly, Russias cooperation with the Council of Europe was given a negative assessment, with 39.0% of respondents observing deterioration. Experts pointed to a minimum positive trend in Russias Openness to the World (0.1), with 53.9% of respondents mentioning an improvement in the level of Russians freedom of international travel (compared with 46.6% last year), and 43.6% noting more freedom in foreigners movement around Russia (39.7% the year before). Russians attitude toward foreigners showed a slightly negative trend, as just above one-third of respondents said it had deteriorated. The same holds true for foreigners attitude to Russians. According to Forbes Mark Adomanis, Russia is moving in an increasingly socially conservative direction at the exact time that Western countries are becoming ever-more tolerant and liberal. Unfortunately, if this trend persists, it is difficult to expect the attitude toward Russians to improve. Another respondent, who preferred to remain anonymous, was more optimistic: The growing presence of Russian tourists around the world is slowly changing stereotypes about Russians, as understanding grows about the emerging middle class in Russia. Young Russian tourists are often a pleasant surprise to foreigners. The strongest downward trend was shown by foreign perception of Russia as an open country, with 65.4% of respondents reporting deterioration for this indicator. According to the experts, foreigners still see Russia as a closed country, which it is not easy to
Russias openness to the world

0,3 0,2 0,1 0,0 -0,1 -0,2 -0,3 2010 2011 2012 2013
0,1 0,2
-0,1
0,1
travel to. They are very poorly informed of its diversity, its cultural and natural riches. Some noted the negative influence of controversial policies on Russias image, including the US Magnitsky Act and Russian legislative initiatives the Dima Yakovlev Law, the NGO law and the Law banning propaganda of non-traditional sexual relations among minors as well as the continued mandatory registration system for foreigners and reprisals against the opposition. One of respondents said that the Russian government has spent enormous sums of money on presenting Russia to the world, but some of what is presented does more harm to Russias image than good. The openness and accessibility of federal and regional executive bodies for foreigners generally remain at the same level of last year, although a large proportion of experts could not assess this indicator. The accessibility of information on Russia to foreign citizens was assessed rather positively. Russias Soft Power index achieved apositive result for the first time in four years, with a value of 0.1. The attractiveness of Russias cultural and civilizational models produced a parity of opinions, which is nevertheless much better than the year before. Some experts pointed
Soft Power
0,4 0,2 0,0 -0,2 -0,4
to the successes of Russias cultural diplomacy, while others again emphasized the rise in traditionalist values a lower level of tolerance toward immigrants and the LGBT community, which prevents citizens of developed nations from seeing Russia as an attractive country to live in. Other indicators showed weak or moderate upward trends, including the extent to which Russias political values are reflected in its foreign policy, a national idea (predominating general values across the country), the global role of the Russian language, the global popularity of Russian culture, and foreign perception of Russian emigrants.
0,0
2010
-0,2 -0,2
2011
2012
2013
0,1
An analysis of the surveys over the past four years has led to the conclusion that Russia has strengthened its foothold as one of the major players in the global multi-polar world. The countrys geopolitical weight and consistency in upholding its interests on the international stage is highly appreciated by the expert community. However, Russias domestic policy and some aspects of Russian society cause the biggest concerns for the fourth year running, along with the economy, which is unlikely to provide new points of growth based on the commercializing of R&D projects any time soon, but will likely to continue to rely heavily on exploiting the countrys natural resources. The negative trend in scientific research (more precisely, the absence of growth for four years, which comes to the same thing) also confirms the experts concerns. However, it is important to note the first positive value of the Soft Power score over the period surveyed. There is also room for improvement in the area of human capital. Achievements in this sphere should greatly improve the perception of Russia as a good country to live in and do business. They could also help to create an environment for popularizing Russias cultural accomplishments, and develop an image of a major power which puts a high value on peoples rights, freedoms and opportunities.
1. The Russian Political System
1.1. The President

Inuence within the political system Efciency of policy development and implementation Public trust
Very substantial deterioration Substantial deterioration Slight deterioration No change Slight improvement Substantial improvement Very substantial improvement Dont know/ Cant assess
0,0 3,4 25,3 17,2 19,5 20,7 12,6 1,1
3,4 10,3 26,4 20,7 20,7 16,1 1,1 1,1
5,7 13,8 40,2 11,5 18,4 8,0 2,3 0,0
1.2. The executive branch 1.2.1. The Prime Minister

11,5 36,8 24,1 20,7 3,4 2,3 1,1 0,0
6,9 26,4 36,8 19,5 9,2 0,0 1,1 0,0
11,5 27,6 40,2 11,5 5,7 1,1 1,1 1,1
10
1.2.2. The Russian Government

2,3 14,9 39,1 27,6 13,8 0,0 1,1 1,1
2,3 16,1 32,2 31,0 13,8 1,1 1,1 2,3
4,6 18,4 36,8 29,9 5,7 2,3 1,1 1,1
1.2.3. The regional executive branch (Plenipotentiary Representatives, Governors, Mayors)

0,0 3,4 20,7 39,1 26,4 1,1 0,0 9,2
1,1 3,4 17,2 50,6 14,9 2,3 0,0 10,3
1,1 9,2 18,4 44,8 16,1 1,1 0,0 9,2
1.3. The legislative branch 1.3.1. The State Duma

4,6 5,7 21,8 41,4 20,7 2,3 1,1 2,3
5,7 14,9 18,4 43,7 10,3 2,3 2,3 2,3
8,0 19,5 27,6 32,2 9,2 0,0 1,1 2,3
11
1.3.2. The Federation Council

3,4 3,4 8,0 67,8 11,5 0,0 0,0 5,7
2,3 4,6 13,8 69,0 4,6 0,0 0,0 5,7
3,4 8,0 10,3 70,1 3,4 0,0 0,0 4,6
1.4. The judicial system 1.4.1. The courts of general jurisdiction, the Supreme Court
4,6 11,5 13,8 43,7 14,9 3,4 1,1 6,9
5,7 11,5 14,9 39,1 18,4 1,1 1,1 8,0
9,2 16,1 31,0 24,1 11,5 1,1 1,1 5,7
1.4.2. The Constitutional Court

0,0 4,6 9,2 65,5 8,0 1,1 0,0 11,5
0,0 3,4 10,3 64,4 9,2 1,1 0,0 11,5
1,1 3,4 14,9 59,8 8,0 0,0 0,0 12,6
12
1.4.3. Arbitration tribunals, the Supreme Arbitration Court

0,0 1,1 13,8 44,8 10,3 1,1 0,0 28,7
0,0 2,3 11,5 43,7 12,6 1,1 0,0 28,7
1,1 0,0 12,6 46,0 10,3 0,0 0,0 29,9
1.5. Political parties and the political system 1.5.1. The ruling party
5,7 16,1 32,2 23,0 14,9 4,6 2,3 1,1
5,7 18,4 31,0 26,4 10,3 5,7 1,1 1,1
10,3 28,7 31,0 19,5 5,7 2,3 0,0 2,3
1.5.2. Parliamentary opposition

3,4 14,9 24,1 40,2 13,8 1,1 0,0 2,3
4,6 13,8 25,3 43,7 8,0 1,1 0,0 3,4
3,4 17,2 24,1 36,8 12,6 2,3 0,0 3,4
13
1.5.3. Extra-parliamentary opposition

5,7 13,8 17,2 19,5 33,3 6,9 0,0 3,4
8,0 11,5 21,8 29,9 18,4 3,4 1,1 5,7
2,3 9,2 21,8 24,1 33,3 4,6 1,1 3,4
1.6. The role of civil society 1.6.1. Civil society development level
The extent to which the rights and freedoms of citizens are observed by the government Degree of freedom of press and expression The extent to which citizens interests are reected during elections
6,9 25,3 18,4 23,0 21,8 3,4 1,1 0,0
4,6 23,0 27,6 24,1 14,9 3,4 1,1 1,1
4,6 13,8 18,4 27,6 28,7 4,6 1,1 1,1
1.6.2. The electoral process

The extent to which the rights and freedoms to elect and be elected are observed by the government Freedom of campaigning, including access to the media The degree of predictability of the electoral process
3,4 12,6 18,4 31,0 26,4 3,4 3,4 1,1
5,7 11,5 14,9 40,2 18,4 6,9 1,1 1,1
0,0 6,9 12,6 48,3 19,5 5,7 3,4 3,4
14
1.6.3. The role of non-governmental organizations

11,5 26,4 28,7 14,9 14,9 1,1 0,0 2,3
9,2 24,1 25,3 24,1 12,6 1,1 0,0 3,4
2,3 14,9 24,1 29,9 23,0 2,3 0,0 3,4
1.6.4. The role of the Russian Public Chamber

Inuence within the political system Efciency of decision-making and implementation Public trust
2,3 4,6 16,1 43,7 16,1 0,0 0,0 17,2
3,4 5,7 14,9 47,1 10,3 0,0 0,0 18,4
4,6 5,7 11,5 48,3 12,6 0,0 0,0 17,2
15
2. The Russian Economy
2.1. Macroeconomic parameters (GDP trends, external debts, the trade balance and inflation)
Macroeconomic parameters
0,0 11,5 57,5 8,0 12,6 3,4 2,3 4,6
2.2. Development of economic sectors

Extraction industries Producing and Processing industries Innovation industries Financial services
0,0 1,1 36,8 23,0 18,4 5,7 1,1 13,8
0,0 8,0 36,8 21,8 13,8 4,6 0,0 14,9
0,0 12,6 27,6 20,7 25,3 1,1 0,0 12,6
0,0 2,3 21,8 27,6 32,2 2,3 0,0 13,8
16
2.3. Economic modernization

Level of diversication of the economy The efciency of measures taken to modernize the economy Russias balance of payments forecast
0,0 10,3 27,6 32,2 24,1 0,0 1,1 4,6
1,1 16,1 26,4 25,3 25,3 0,0 2,3 3,4
2,3 3,4 36,8 24,1 18,4 1,1 2,3 11,5
2.4. The Russian investment climate

Level of Russias integration in the global economy The Russian markets openness Investment attractiveness (direct investment)
0,0 5,7 16,1 34,5 29,9 5,7 1,1 6,9
0,0 2,3 19,5 37,9 27,6 4,6 0,0 8,0
1,1 10,3 33,3 18,4 24,1 3,4 0,0 9,2
Investment attractiveness (portfolio investment)
Tax legislation development level
Business climate
1,1 13,8 26,4 21,8 20,7 3,4 0,0 12,6
0,0 5,7 12,6 47,1 18,4 2,3 0,0 13,8
0,0 12,6 33,3 25,3 16,1 3,4 0,0 9,2
17
3. The Russian Human

dimension
3.1. Living standards

Environment Public health Feeling of safety/security
0,0 0,0 16,1 47,1 31,0 1,1 0,0 4,6
0,0 2,3 18,4 35,6 33,3 3,4 0,0 6,9
0,0 8,0 21,8 34,5 27,6 1,1 2,3 4,6
Poverty level
Prosperity level
0,0 4,6 16,1 35,6 35,6 3,4 1,1 3,4
0,0 2,3 14,9 35,6 37,9 4,6 1,1 3,4
18
3.2. Education standards

General education standards Professional/vocational education standards
1,1 5,7 20,7 44,8 18,4 2,3 1,1 5,7
1,1 4,6 14,9 41,4 26,4 1,1 1,1 9,2
3.3. Ideology and politics

Level of national pride, patriotism Sense of freedom Level of mutual trust
0,0 0,0 12,6 16,1 51,7 12,6 4,6 2,3
4,6 10,3 41,4 32,2 9,2 1,1 1,1 0,0
1,1 10,3 37,9 33,3 13,8 1,1 1,1 1,1
Level of good will, support to compatriots, compassion
Tolerance level
Cultural level of the population
1,1 5,7 14,9 48,3 20,7 3,4 1,1 4,6
6,9 26,4 37,9 17,2 4,6 2,3 1,1 3,4
1,1 6,9 11,5 49,4 25,3 1,1 1,1 3,4
19
4. Russian science and the

Countrys innovative development
Competitiveness of Russian higher education, post-graduate and doctorate courses
The creative potential of academics/scientists
The creative potential of engineers
1,1 6,9 25,3 29,9 26,4 3,4 0,0 6,9
1,1 1,1 20,7 42,5 24,1 1,1 2,3 6,9
1,1 1,1 13,8 39,1 17,2 1,1 2,3 24,1
Infrastructure incentives for innovation
Tax incentives for innovation
The business communitys willingness to be involved in venture investment
1,1 2,3 26,4 21,8 31,0 3,4 1,1 12,6
1,1 1,1 16,1 34,5 23,0 3,4 1,1 19,5
1,1 4,6 20,7 32,2 20,7 2,3 0,0 18,4
20
Venture investment in R&D projects
The brain drain
The level of state nancing for science
1,1 3,4 20,7 27,6 19,5 3,4 0,0 24,1
3,4 13,8 27,6 24,1 18,4 4,6 0,0 8,0
0,0 1,1 18,4 24,1 43,7 3,4 0,0 9,2
The existence of competitive innovation projects
The extent to which R&D results are applied in the economy/mechanisms governing the commercialization of scientic innovations
1,1 2,3 19,5 33,3 25,3 1,1 0,0 17,2
1,1 4,6 18,4 40,2 10,3 4,6 0,0 20,7
21
5. Russia in the system
ofNational, regional and Global security
External border security
Level to which the Russian Armed Forces is equipped with modern weapons
Level of advanced military R&D projects
0,0 1,1 11,5 49,4 28,7 4,6 2,3 2,3
0,0 1,1 5,7 18,4 58,6 8,0 2,3 5,7
0,0 2,3 4,6 25,3 43,7 4,6 2,3 17,2
Professional qualities of ofcers and commanders
Professional qualities of Russian soldiers
Ability to quickly respond to a threat from abroad
0,0 1,1 8,0 41,4 29,9 1,1 1,1 17,2
0,0 1,1 6,9 48,3 23,0 1,1 1,1 18,4
0,0 1,1 4,6 26,4 43,7 8,0 3,4 12,6
22
Ability to respond to a threat which arises within Russia
Ability to conduct operations outside Russia
Ability to combat the terror threat
0,0 1,1 5,7 29,9 39,1 9,2 1,1 13,8
0,0 2,3 8,0 32,2 35,6 5,7 1,1 14,9
0,0 1,1 10,3 34,5 34,5 4,6 4,6 10,3
Ability to conduct a global war
Russia as a potential threat to peace
Russia as a guarantor of international security, including peacekeeping missions
Military cooperation with foreign countries and organizations
0,0 4,6 16,1 37,9 19,5 3,4 2,3 16,1
1,1 4,6 9,2 69,0 6,9 3,4 1,1 4,6
0,0 3,4 21,8 39,1 21,8 8,0 3,4 2,3
1,1 2,3 18,4 33,3 29,9 5,7 4,6 4,6
23
6. Russian diplomatic Activity
6.1. General assessment of the Russian foreign policy

Russias international inuence Mediation work to resolve international conicts Involvement in international aid efforts
0,0 5,7 21,8 16,1 44,8 8,0 3,4 0,0
1,1 4,6 26,4 32,2 26,4 4,6 2,3 2,3
0,0 3,4 10,3 47,1 26,4 8,0 1,1 3,4
Perception of Russia abroad
Russias diplomatic initiatives
2,3 24,1 32,2 12,6 21,8 4,6 1,1 1,1
0,0 4,6 20,7 23,0 39,1 6,9 2,3 3,4
24
6.2. Russia's participation in international organizations

Participation in the G8 Participation in the G20 The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD)
0,0 2,3 14,9 51,7 25,3 1,1 2,3 2,3
0,0 0,0 5,7 33,3 41,4 11,5 5,7 2,3
0,0 0,0 6,9 67,8 18,4 0,0 2,3 4,6
The Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO)
The Asia-Pacic Economic Cooperation (APEC)
The Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS)
0,0 1,1 8,0 42,5 31,0 8,0 2,3 6,9
0,0 1,1 3,4 29,9 44,8 14,9 1,1 4,6
0,0 2,3 16,1 40,2 25,3 9,2 3,4 3,4
Participation in UN activities
Participation in Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) activities
The Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO)
The Council of Europe
0,0 3,4 13,8 52,9 21,8 2,3 2,3 3,4
0,0 4,6 27,6 44,8 9,2 4,6 1,1 8,0
0,0 0,0 10,3 42,5 28,7 5,7 3,4 9,2
1,1 8,0 29,9 42,5 10,3 2,3 1,1 4,6
25
7. Russias Openness
to the World
Degree to which Russian citizens are free to travel internationally
Degree to which foreign citizens are free to travel within Russia
The Russian populations attitude toward foreign citizens
0,0 0,0 8,0 34,5 28,7 17,2 8,0 3,4
1,1 1,1 11,5 39,1 27,6 10,3 5,7 3,4
0,0 4,6 29,9 36,8 19,5 4,6 2,3 2,3
Foreign perception of Russian citizens
Foreign perception of Russia as an open country
Accessibility of information on Russia to foreign citizens
1,1 3,4 28,7 40,2 20,7 2,3 2,3 1,1
3,4 19,5 42,5 17,2 11,5 2,3 2,3 1,1
0,0 3,4 12,6 49,4 21,8 5,7 2,3 4,6
26
Openness and accessibility Openness and accessibility of representatives of regional of representatives of federal government bodies to foreign citizens government bodies to foreign citizens
0,0 8,0 11,5 46,0 16,1 3,4 1,1 13,8
0,0 4,6 10,3 46,0 17,2 2,3 1,1 18,4
27
8. Soft power
The attractiveness of Russias cultural and civilizational models
The extent to which Russias political values are reected in its foreign policy
The national idea (values that predominate nationwide)
3,4 10,3 21,8 26,4 28,7 5,7 1,1 2,3
1,1 2,3 4,6 39,1 37,9 9,2 2,3 3,4
0,0 3,4 11,5 36,8 26,4 6,9 2,3 12,6
The global role of the Russian language
The global popularity of Russian culture
Russias attractiveness as a place of permanent residence
Foreign perception of Russian emigrants
0,0 5,7 14,9 39,1 31,0 2,3 1,1 5,7
0,0 5,7 13,8 39,1 31,0 3,4 2,3 4,6
1,1 18,4 26,4 26,4 18,4 2,3 1,1 5,7
0,0 2,3 11,5 49,4 24,1 0,0 2,3 10,3
28
About the project: The Russia Development Index (Valdai Index) reflects the combined opinion of the world's leading experts on Russia as regards Russias political, economic, social, cultural and international performance. The poll is conducted annually in AugustSeptember and aims to study the changes that have occurred in Russias development over the course of a year. Indeed, respondents assess changes, rather than the current situation. The first Valdai Index survey was conducted at the seventh annual conference of the Valdai Discussion Club in 2010. A group of 25 leading experts on Russia from the United States, Great Britain, Germany, France, Italy, China, Poland, Canada and Japan were asked to answer nine questions and to give marks on a 10-point scale, ranging from 5 (significant deterioration) to 5 (significant improvement). In 2011, the Valdai Index structure was changed quite substantially. The questionnaire modules were expanded, each containing a number of categories that specify and define more accurately the changes that happened in Russia over the year. The respondents were asked to choose one mark on a seven-point scale for each category in eight modules that best describes the current trend. The marks ranged from 3 (significant deterioration) to +3 (significant improvement). The new format was approved as the basis for the project. The focus group for the Russia Development Index 20122013 included 323 participants of the Valdai Club conferences, and 87 respondents from 26 countries participated in the survey: Austria, Armenia, Great Britain, Hungary, Germany, Israel, India, Iran, Iraq, Italy, Canada, China, Mexico, Norway, Russia, Poland, Slovakia, USA, Turkey, Ukraine, Finland, France, Switzerland, Estonia, South Korea and Japan. Foreign experts accounted for 76% of the respondents.
29
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Moscow, October 2013 valdaiclub.

RUSSIA DEVELOPMENT INDEX 20122013

Russia Development Index 20122013

Russia Development Index

EXPeRT OPINION POLL OF THe VALDAI DISCUSSION CLUB

Russia Development Index 20122013

The Russian political system

MOSCOW, OCTOBER 2013

Russia Development Index 20122013

The Russian economy

The Russian human dimension

EXPeRT OPINION POLL OF THe VALDAI DISCUSSION CLUB

Russia Development Index 20122013

Russian science and the countrys innovative development

MOSCOW, OCTOBER 2013

Russia Development Index 20122013

Russia in the system of national, regional and global security

Russian diplomatic activity on the international scene

0,3 1,0 0,0 0,1

0,2 -0,2 0,8

EXPeRT OPINION POLL OF THe VALDAI DISCUSSION CLUB

Russia Development Index 20122013

Russias openness to the world

MOSCOW, OCTOBER 2013

Russia Development Index 20122013

EXPeRT OPINION POLL OF THe VALDAI DISCUSSION CLUB

Russia Development Index 20122013

1. The Russian Political System

1.1. The President

0,0 3,4 25,3 17,2 19,5 20,7 12,6 1,1

3,4 10,3 26,4 20,7 20,7 16,1 1,1 1,1

5,7 13,8 40,2 11,5 18,4 8,0 2,3 0,0

1.2. The executive branch 1.2.1. The Prime Minister

11,5 36,8 24,1 20,7 3,4 2,3 1,1 0,0

6,9 26,4 36,8 19,5 9,2 0,0 1,1 0,0

11,5 27,6 40,2 11,5 5,7 1,1 1,1 1,1

MOSCOW, OCTOBER 2013

Russia Development Index 20122013

1.2.2. The Russian Government

2,3 14,9 39,1 27,6 13,8 0,0 1,1 1,1

2,3 16,1 32,2 31,0 13,8 1,1 1,1 2,3

4,6 18,4 36,8 29,9 5,7 2,3 1,1 1,1

1.2.3.  The regional executive branch (Plenipotentiary Representatives, Governors, Mayors)

0,0 3,4 20,7 39,1 26,4 1,1 0,0 9,2

1,1 3,4 17,2 50,6 14,9 2,3 0,0 10,3

1,1 9,2 18,4 44,8 16,1 1,1 0,0 9,2

1.3. The legislative branch 1.3.1. The State Duma

4,6 5,7 21,8 41,4 20,7 2,3 1,1 2,3

5,7 14,9 18,4 43,7 10,3 2,3 2,3 2,3

8,0 19,5 27,6 32,2 9,2 0,0 1,1 2,3

EXPeRT OPINION POLL OF THe VALDAI DISCUSSION CLUB

Russia Development Index 20122013

1.3.2. The Federation Council

3,4 3,4 8,0 67,8 11,5 0,0 0,0 5,7

2,3 4,6 13,8 69,0 4,6 0,0 0,0 5,7

3,4 8,0 10,3 70,1 3,4 0,0 0,0 4,6

4,6 11,5 13,8 43,7 14,9 3,4 1,1 6,9

5,7 11,5 14,9 39,1 18,4 1,1 1,1 8,0

9,2 16,1 31,0 24,1 11,5 1,1 1,1 5,7

1.4.2. The Constitutional Court

0,0 4,6 9,2 65,5 8,0 1,1 0,0 11,5

0,0 3,4 10,3 64,4 9,2 1,1 0,0 11,5

1,1 3,4 14,9 59,8 8,0 0,0 0,0 12,6

1. The Russian Political System

1.2.3. The regional executive branch (Plenipotentiary Representatives, Governors, Mayors)

2. The Russian Economy

3. The Russian Human