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Good afternoon and welcome to The Rundown. Is that white or grey smoke piping out of the Communist Party's third plenum in Beijing? Oh wait. That's smog. Best, Your AEI Foreign and Defense Policy Studies team

Tweet of the Week

Sadanand Dhume @dhume India doing its best to prove him right. RT @TomWrightAsia: Summers warns that Asia's fast growth can't last. http://on.wsj.com/17kILuJ

In the News
Iran
Irans insistence on formal recognition of its right to enrich uranium is posing a major obstacle to an interim agreement to constrain the countrys nuclear program. On Wednesday, Danielle Pletka will testify about nuclear negotiations before the House Committee on Foreign Affairs. Livestream her testimony at 10:00 a.m. and visit the AEIdeas blog for Pletkas latest, Iran rips off the West in the nuclear bazaar. Check out her recent appearance on CNN's "The Lead" here. What will this nuclear deal really mean for the US? Get up to speed with Pletkas primer on the nuclear negotiations: The administration isnt being clear with Iran about what its bottom line is, because Obama has no bottom line. What was once a demand to end the entire nuclear weapons program has become a demand to make it smaller and hide it better. The Iranians are playing out the string, and wont agree to anything more substantial down the road, because theyre getting what they need up front. They are well aware that if they hold out long enough (and thats not too long), Obama will offer them a better deal: more concessions in return for less. There is at least one reason why the Obama administration has been trying hard to keep the details of its

negotiations with Iran under wraps: it is engaged in an effort to craft a deal that looks and smells like capitulation. Critical Threats Project deputy director Maseh Zarif argues that if the Obama administration forges ahead with the bad deal that has been emerging over the last few months, then no amount of spin will be able to disguise it. Also check out Zarifs Iranian nuclear program: Timlines, data, and estimates V7.0 slide deck for a technical assessment of the nuclear program as it currently stands.

American Engagement
In the national imagination, foreign policy is a zero-sum game between two dueling and incompatible camps: doves who seek to isolate us from the world, and hawks who aim to resolve practically every crisis with our nations mighty military. By this neat taxonomy, an active US foreign policy is synonymous with warmongering, and isolationism is equivalent to peace. Is America being presented with a false choice? Join us on November 20 at 10:00 a.m. to hear Sen. Marco Rubio (R-FL), a member of the Senate Committee on Foreign Relations and Select Committee on Intelligence, articulate a vision for Americas role in the world that reflects Americas deepest aspirations for liberty.

Defense
The Joint Chiefs of Staff might be accused of sounding like a broken record, but that should not dissuade policymakers from paying attention to the grim national security outlook. Mackenzie Eaglen notes, America's military strength and credibility are at stake. Unless President Obama and Congress actively work to alter sequestration, its primary billpayer, the U.S. military and the American public will lose twice. First, the taxpayer will owe more as a result of all this inefficient insecurity. And secondly, the nation will suffer immeasurably due to unnecessary instability and increasing military weakness as a result. If the US Navy is to continue to secure trade routes and shipping lanes around the globe long into the 21st century, it needs a robust fleet both in quantity and quality. Eaglen takes a closer look at the new supercarrier to argue why the US needs to leverage its own technological advantages for creative solutions. Read more on the Ford-class carriers here.

Asia
In an effort to prepare the worlds second-largest economy for future growth, Chinas Communist Party pledged to let markets play a decisive role in allocating resources. Derek Scissors reacts to the news coming out of Beijing: What is emerging suggests the party leadership is either unwilling to take decisive action or, at least as likely, does not see the need. Talk of gradual reform and private investment in state-owned enterprises are based on a flawed perception of the economy. China doesnt need private investors to cooperate more with the state, it needs them to compete more against the state. Dan Blumenthal writes for Foreign Policy, While it is amusing to consider that the walker may replace the missile as the weapon of choice for China and Japan, there are also far more dangerous possibilities. An aging Russia, for example, relies on its nuclear weapons (the most bang for the least manpower) for

security. Both Japan and China are seriously interested in drones and robotics as systems of the future. Given the inclinations of youth in both countries, conflict may seem like a complicated video game. Decisions remain to be made in South Korea in the areas of missile defense, tactical fighter aircraft, and command-and-control arrangements that will be significant for not only South Korea but also all states that have an interest in Northeast Asias peace and stability. For a rundown of South Koreas missile, cyber, special operations, and nuclear capabilities, read the latest National Security Outlook, the seventh in a series about the defense capabilities of Americas allies and security partners. The East China Sea may see the world's first war started by aerial drones. Unless China and Japan quickly find some way to settle their territorial dispute, they will move toward a military clash. Michael Auslin's column in The Wall Street Journal examines the dangerous costs of bumbling in Tokyo, aggression in Beijing, and passivity in Washington. Also in The Wall Street Journal, Sadanand Dhume examines why India is lackadaisical on terror. To score political points, New Delhi politicians openly sympathize with suspected terrorists. Dhume writes, The US exit from Afghanistan next year with the Taliban still unvanquished will boost radical Islamist morale across South Asia and beyond. Stepped up attacks by militants on the Indian army in Kashmir, as well as border skirmishes between India and Pakistan, have ended a decade-long lull in violence in the disputed territory. . . . At the same time, New Delhis foreign-policy mandarins have attached no special urgency to deepening ties with Israel, the U.S. and other Western democracies. The bottom line: Even as security in Indias immediate neighborhood deteriorates, the countrys politicians and foreign -policy mandarins remain unprepared to face the challenge.

Turkey
Turkeys Kurdish problem has not gone away. Turkish self-congratulation on the Kurdish peace process is decidedly one-sided as Turks refuse to make any real reforms. Michael Rubin takes to the AEIdeas blog for a closer look at the wave of sectarian strife hitting Turkey: The AKP has had long had a sectarian agenda. While the AKP claims it represents minorities, its first parliament included not a single Alevi deputy even though the Alevi represent 20% of the population. Prime Minister Erdoan, in the true fashion of Islamist dictators, demanded that Sunni school teachers re -educate Alevi school children. As Turkey starts down the sectarian road, it h as no one but its leadership in Ankara to blame. That is what happens when a prime minister prioritizes religious ideology over economic and political pragmatism.

Best of Blogs
Here is the best of what AEI's foreign and defense policy scholars are reading this week: Daniel S. Markey in The Washington Post: Killing of Pakistani terrorist is a possible turning point Evelyn Gordon in Commentary magazine: The crucial question for John Kerry Claudia Rosett in The Wall Street Journal: Iran's worrisome shipping news

Bill Gertz in The Washington Free Beacon: China cyber espionage grows Anna Borshchevskaya in CNN's Global Public Square: Ukraine should steer clear of Soviet Union 2.0 Reuben F. Johnson in The Weekly Standard: Hear no evil: The administration's move to silence a Pentagon strategist James Jay Carafano in the Washington Examiner: Time to pivot to military readiness
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