Energy and climate outlook: the main challenges

Oslo 21 February 2013, Jnos Herman, Ambassador of the European Union to Norway

Energy

Target: Low carbon-economy by 2050

100% Power Sector Current policy 60% Residential & Tertiary Industry 40% Transport 20% Non CO2 Agriculture Non CO2 Other Sectors 0% 1990 2000 2010

100%

80%

80%

60%

40%

20%

2020
Energy

2030

2040

0% 2050 5

Energy Roadmap 2050: a long-term policy framework

Aim of the Energy Roadmap

. . .

Give more certainty to governments and investors

Explore routes towards a low-carbon energy system by 2050 which improve competitiveness and security of supply Basis for developing the 2030 policy framework and concrete milestones

Energy

Energy Roadmap 2050: Decarbonisation is economically feasible

Average annual energy capital and fuel costs from 2011 to 2050 for each scenario
3000

2500

2000

1500

1000

500 Ref CPI High Energy effic. Div. supply techn. High RES Delayed CCS Low nuclear

Capital cost

Energy fuel purchases

Total Energy system costs

In all decarbonisation scenarios, total costs are similar to current policies.

Energy

High share of Renewables significant challenges ahead

50%
46,90%

40%
33,60% 34,30%

30%

2010

30,70%

2020
23,00% 21,10% 21,40% 21,70% 24,70% 24,10%

20%
14,10% 12,40% 10,70% 11,40% 12,40% 12,90%

10%
5,40% 5,50% 5,90% 2,60% 0,30% 3,30% 3,80%

8,50% 8,50%

9,10%

9,70% 9,90%

0% EU MT LU UK NL BE CY IE HU IT GR CZ PO DE SK FR BG ES LT RO SI DK EE PT AT FI LV SW

Energy

Natural gas a transition fuel for decarbonisation

Less CO2 intensive fuel

Gas-to-power is a suitable backup solution for Renewables

Gas-fired power stations support the integration of Renewables

Energy

Natural gas with carbon capture & storage (CCS)

Even greater potential for natural gas with carbon capture & storage

Commission support for CCS demonstration projects

Norway an important partner in development of CCS technology

Energy

Internal energy market and infrastructure

Priorities beyond 2020

Energy

Energy efficiency: benefits are enormous

=
368 Mtoe 2.6 bn 193 billion EUR 20% Energy saving target

1 000 less coal power plants

500 000 less wind turbines

Primary energy savings in 2020

Barrels of oil we do not have to import per year

Money saved at 73 EUR/barrel per year

Energy

12

Conclusion and outlook:

2030 Policy framework Completion of the Internal Energy Market Framework for national interventions in the energy sector

Energy