***COUNTERPLAN***

1NC: China Counterplan

The Peoples Republic of China should [do the plan, insert a modified version of the plan text, do not just say do the plan] It solves China is a better alternative than the US solves the aff and avoids the disad. Ellis 6. [Evan, Associate with Booz Allen Hamilton, Inc., with an emphasis on Latin American security issues, PhD in Political
Science, "The New Chinese Engagement with Latin America: Understanding its Dynamics and the Implications for the Region" BoozAllen -- March 3 -- www6.miami.edu/hemispheric-policy/ellisthenewchineseengagementwithlatinamerica030306.pdf]
Aside from the intangible political dimension, China also represents

a real alternative market for primary product exports, and to some degree, an alternative source of investment capital. Chinas willingness to invest in the Bolivian hydrocarbon sector,82 for example, provides the new government of Evo Morales with another way of obtaining needed resources and technical expertise without having to make concessions to the 26 oil companies currently operating in the country. Chinese engagement with Bolivia thus gives Morales more latitude to proceed with the nationalization of that nations hydrocarbon
sector. Similarly, the prospect of China as an alternative market for Latin American commodity exports has also introduced a new dimension to the question of trade integration with the United States, such as the Free Trade Area of the Americas.

[insert specific solvency as needed]

--- General Solvency ---

General Say Yes

Latin America says yes China is massively boosting engagement now. Wang 5-6. [Xiaoxia, economic observer, "In America's Backyard: China's rising influence in Latin America" World Crunch -www.worldcrunch.com/china-2.0/in-america-039-s-backyard-china-039-s-rising-influence-in-latin-america/foreign-policy-tradeeconomy-investments-energy/c9s11647/] IN AMERICA'S BACKYARD : CHINA'S

RISING INFLUENCE IN LATIN AMERICA China is busy in America's

backyard. Over the past five years, Chinese businesses have been expanding their footprint in Latin America in a number of ways, beginning with enhanced trade to ensure a steady supply of bulk commodities such as oil, copper and soybeans. At this year's Boao Forum for Asia, for the first time a Latin American sub-forum was created that included the participation of several heads of state from the region. Since 2011, China has overtaken the Netherlands to become Latin Americas second biggest investor behind the United States. China has signed a series of large cooperation agreements with Latin American countries in such fields as finance, resources and energy. According to the latest statistics of the General Administration of Customs of China, Sino-Latin American trade grew in 2012 to a total of $261.2 billion, a year-on-year increase of 8.18%.

US Aid Bad
China aid more flexible US aid requires coercive restrictions. Johnson 5. [Stephen, Senior Policy Analyst, "Balancing China's Growing Influence in Latin America" Heritage Foundation -October 24 -- www.heritage.org/research/reports/2005/10/balancing-chinas-growing-influence-in-latin-america]

Evasion of American-style bottleneck diplo-macy . China's flexibility counters more rigid U.S. approaches. Obtaining any kind of assistance from the United States requires compliance on a battery of restrictions, including observing human rights, protecting the environment, prom-ising not to send U.S. military personnel to the International Criminal Court (ICC),[10] not assist-ing current or former terrorists, and not using U.S.-provided equipment for any other than its stated purpose. American commitments also depend on legislative approval and can be reversed if the mood in the U.S. Congress shifts .

China > US
Latin America says yes to the counterplan comparatively prefer China over the US.
Malln, 6/28, [Covers Latin America for the International Business Timecovers Latin America for the International
Business Times.] Latin America Increases Relations With China: What Does That Mean For The US? http://www.ibtimes.com/reporters/patricia-rey-mallen

Beyond the lack of understanding with its former main trade partner, why is Latin America so smitten with China? Kevin Gallagher, a professor of international relations at Boston University, says China speaks to the regions newfound confidence. China is offering attractive deals to Latin American economies while the United States continues to lecture and dictate, Gallagher wrote for The Globalist. For too long, the United States has relied on a rather imperial mechanism, just telling Latin America what it needs, he added. Compare that to Chinas approach: It offers Latin America what it wants. Gallagher argued that the U.S. biggest offer to Latin America is
the Trans-Pacific Partnership, which offers access to the U.S. market on three conditions: deregulate financial markets, adopt intellectual property provisions that give preferences to U.S. firms, and allow U.S. firms to sue governments for violating any of its conditions.

China, on the other hand, has been providing more financing to Latin America than the World Bank, the Inter-American Development Bank and the U.S. Export-Import Bank combined since 2003, with no previous conditions and very few strings attached. Latin America is very sensitive to any notions of conditionality due to painful past experiences with the IMF and the World Bank, Gallagher said. China makes sure that its policy is not based on conditionalities. Gallagher said the U.S. should awake from its past slumber and stop taking Latin America for granted. Shlomo Ben-Ami, vice president of the Toledo International Center for Peace and former Israeli foreign minister, takes a
different stance. He argues that China's advancement in the region does not automatically equate with American loss of preeminence. U.S. exports to Latin America continue to rise (by 94 percent over the past six years), as do imports (87 percent in the same period), and America continues to be the biggest foreign investor in the area. Perhaps even more crucial are America's cultural and historical ties to the region, Ben-Ami said. Given the extraordinary growth of Latinos influence in the U.S., it is almost inconceivable that America could lose its unique status in the region to China, he said. Still, Gallagher and Ben-Ami agree that the U.S. needs to step up, both economically and diplomatically, to compete with new influences in a part of the world that was until

Gone are the days when military muscle and the politics of subversion could secure U.S. influence -- in Latin America or anywhere else, Ben-Ami said. It is high time for the U.S. government to undertake a true rethink of its economic policy toward Latin America, Gallagher observed. Very soon, it might be too late.
recently widely considered Americas domain.

China Aid Good

China solves Latin American economic engagement better Laundry list. Hsiang 9. [Dr. Antonio, Associate Professor @ Chihlee Institute of Technology, Taiwan, "China rising in Latin America: More
opportunities than Challenges" Journal of Emerging Knowledge on Emerging Markets -- Vol 1 Issue 1 -- November -digitalcommons.kennesaw.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1003&context=jekem]

The Beijing Consensus has evolved to describe a plethora of alternative plans for economic development in the underdeveloped world. Ramo argues that China and India, who most pointedly ignored the World Bank and the IMF-championed Washington Consensus, now have records that speak for themselves.32 Consequently, the so-called the Beijing Consensus has been attracting attention in Latin America because of Chinas distinctive development model, . . . [which] posits far more state intervention in the economy and a greater concern with political stability and strong government to guide the development process.33 Chinese academics argue that there are three signs that likely predict a convergence between China and Latin America. First, the background conditions are compatible because there are no fundamental conflicts of interest or historical animosities between China and Latin America. Second, the two regions have largely complementary economies. Third, China and Latin America both value diversification in international economic and political relations. For instance, both sides
openly oppose hegemonism, imperialism, and power monopolies by a few developed countries.34

Latin America loves Chinese engagement Dominguez 6. *Jorge, Professor @ Harvards Weatherhead Center for International Affairs, "China's Relations With Latin
America: Shared Gains, Asymmetric Hopes" Inter-American Dialogue Working Paper -- June -www.thedialogue.org/PublicationFiles/china.pdf] In short, China

has developed an impressive systematic long-term strategy to engage with Latin American countries. It has invested the time of its top leaders and the resources of its government. It has formulated symbolically productive discourses to characterize its relations with Latin American countries, and to assess the quality of relations between countries across time and signal the scope of likely
trends. It has a nuanced understanding of the interest in some quarters in Latin America that China should help to balance U.S. power but shies away from embracing that hope. It acknowledges possible future difficulties but confidently asserts its belief

that all key actors will perceive Chinas role in Latin America to be non-threatening and peaceful.

IDB membership means China solves. Hsiang 9. [Dr. Antonio, Associate Professor @ Chihlee Institute of Technology, Taiwan, "China rising in Latin America: More
opportunities than Challenges" Journal of Emerging Knowledge on Emerging Markets -- Vol 1 Issue 1 -- November -digitalcommons.kennesaw.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1003&context=jekem] At a signature ceremony in Washington for Chinas accession into the Inter- American Development Bank (IDB), Zhou Wenzhong, Chinas Ambassador to the United States, pointed out that China

is the largest developing country, and Latin America is the most important developing region in the world. Bringing these two together for high-level, broadbased and high-quality cooperation is in alignment with the trend of the times and the development needs of the two sides.26 Joining the IDB, China will have additional incentive to fulfill its obligations, strengthen policy coordination with member countries both in and

outside the region, engage

in IDBs activities, and promote bilateral cooperation in trade financing and infrastructure construction and other areas of mutual concern so as to carry forward poverty reduction and socioeconomic development in Latin America and the Caribbean. And of course, it paves the way for Chinese companies to take part in infrastructure projects in Latin America.

Aid = Gift
China can do the aff as a gift solves diplomatic ties Eliis 12(Evan Ellis, Ph.D. in political science, professor of national security studies, Institut
franais des relations internationales, February 2012, The Expanding Chinese Footprint in Latin Americaz, www.ifri.org downloads asievisions49eellis.pdf) The second category of construction projects increasing the presence of Chinese companies and workers in the region are gifts by the Chinese government to Latin American countries in conjunction with a change in diplomatic recognition from Taiwan to the Peoples Republic of China. The most recent major example was the construction of the $89 million sport stadium in Costa Rica, following that nations diplomatic recognition of the PRC on June 1, 2007. Because the stadium was a gift from the Chinese government, the PRC chose a Chinese company to do the work, with 600 Chinese workers brought in to execute the project. 20 Other recent examples include the construction of a multiuse sports stadium in Grenada following that nations diplomatic switch in 2004, with 500 Chinese laborers brought in to do the work, a $21 million stadium in Antigua, a $12 million stadium in St. Kitts,21 and construction of the National Academy of Performing Arts and the Prime Ministers residence in Trinidad by Shanghai Construction of China, involving the use of 500 Chinese construction workers.22

Currency Loans Solve LA Econ

China currency loans solve Latin American financial woes. Romero and Barrionuevo 9. [Simon, Brazil bureau chief, Alexei, journalist, "Deals help China expand sway in Latin
America" New York Times -- April 15 -- www.nytimes.com/2009/04/16/world/16chinaloan.html?_r=0] Meanwhile, China

is rapidly increasing its lending in Latin America as it pursues not only longterm access to commodities like soybeans and iron ore, but also an alternative to investing in United States Treasury notes. One of Chinas new deals in Latin America, the $10 billion arrangement with Argentina, would allow Argentina reliable access to Chinese currency to help pay for imports from China. It may also help lead the way to Chinas currency to eventually be used as an alternate reserve currency. The deal follows similar ones China has struck with countries like South Korea, Indonesia and Belarus. As the financial crisis began to whipsaw international markets last year, the Federal Reserve made its own currency arrangements with central banks around the world, allocating $30 billion each to Brazil and Mexico. (Brazil has opted not to tap it for now.) But smaller economies in the region, including Argentina, which has been trying to dispel doubts about its ability to meet its international debt payments, were left out of those agreements. Details of the Chinese deal with Argentina are still being ironed out, but an official at Argentinas central bank said it would allow Argentina to avoid using scarce dollars for all its international transactions. The takeover of billions of dollars in private pension funds, among other moves, led Argentines
to pull the equivalent of nearly $23 billion, much of it in dollars, out of the country last year. Dante Sica, the lead economist at Abeceb, a consulting firm in Buenos Aires, said the

Chinese overtures in the region were made possible by the lack of attention that the United States showed to Latin America during the entire Bush administration. China is also seizing opportunities in Latin America when traditional lenders over which the United States holds some sway, like the Inter-American Development Bank, are pushing up against their limits.

China Solves Financing

China solves alternative financing needs in Latin America. Menendez 13. [Fernando, economist and a Principal at Cordoba Group International, a strategic consulting firm providing
political and economic analysis "The East is rising, in Latin America" The Commentator -- May 10 -www.thecommentator.com/article/3488/the_east_is_rising_in_latin_america] Forsythe and Sanderson argue that Chinas

policy of paying generous amounts of cash for its raw materials and propping up local autocrats gives a whole new meaning to the term too big to fail. As the largest single overseas investor in Venezuela, China tied the money to contracts with Chinese firms. China is also fast becoming an alternative source of development funding. Its ability to lend long-term and the large amounts involved makes it an important and different player . In terms of infrastructure development, the China Development Bank has made substantive loans to develop roads, ports, railroads and other infrastructure that will secure it access to continuing flows of raw materials. According to research conducted by the Financial Times, the China Development Bank (CDB) has displaced the World Bank as the worlds largest development bank, lending billions around the world in pursuit of Chinas interests.

Solves Energy Generally

China engagement solves Latin American energy investment. Romero and Barrionuevo 9. [Simon, Brazil bureau chief, Alexei, journalist, "Deals help China expand sway in Latin
America" New York Times -- April 15 -- www.nytimes.com/2009/04/16/world/16chinaloan.html?_r=0]

As Washington tries to rebuild its strained relationships in Latin America, China is stepping in vigorously , offering countries across the region large amounts of money while they struggle with sharply slowing economies, a plunge in commodity prices and restricted access to credit. In recent weeks, China has been negotiating deals to double a development fund in Venezuela to $12 billion, lend Ecuador at least $1 billion to build a hydroelectric plant, provide Argentina with access to more than $10 billion in Chinese currency and lend Brazils national oil company $10 billion. The deals largely focus on China locking in natural resources like oil for years to come .

Chinese economic engagement solves Latin American energy development. Sherr 11. [Kirk, president of Regester Larkin Energy, "How is China changing Latin America's Energy Sector" Inter-American
Dialogue -- July 22 -- www.thedialogue.org/page.cfm?pageID=32&pubID=2710] Q: China recently announced

several loans worth billions of dollars to Ecuador and Venezuela-to be paid back largely in the form of oil-for public works, energy and infrastructure projects. These investments and others have made China the biggest credit source for the two governments, often on terms that other financial institutions would spurn, analysts have pointed out. Are China's big loans going to be good deals for the Latin American countries? Will the money come through, and will it be used effectively for the intended purposes? Is China's increased investment in Ecuador, Venezuela and other countries in the region playing out as expected several years ago? What unexpected or new economic and political twists are on the horizon resulting from evolving China-Latin America relations? A: Kirk Sherr, president of Regester Larkin Energy: "China is not just lending to the region in return for oil, it also is leveraging the goodwill synergies of these loans to support large equity investments in oil, gas and electric companies. These loan agreements are important to China and they have a solid track record of meeting their obligations-even when the recipient countries may not meet theirs due to project delays and cost overruns. China has benefited
on many fronts from its relationship with the region, exporting more than it imports while also nailing down long-term commodity resources. Energy

security is a major issue for Beijing, and Latin American sourcing is merely one part of a complex solution. According to the BP Statistical Review, China imported nearly 5 million barrels per day (bpd) of crude from South and Central America in 2010, compared to only 8,000 bpd in 2001. Over this same period, Chinese national oil companies have extended their presence across the Latin America region, gaining valuable operating experience . In Venezuela, especially, China has become a major force with the $16.3 billion joint venture between PDVSA and China National Petroleum Corp. to develop the Junin-4 block of the Orinoco oil belt. A number of twists and turns lie ahead, however, for China's engagement of the region.
Already, there is growing regional backlash against Chinese imports in Brazil. Additionally, China faces significant regional risk from implications of possible regime change in its allies, Venezuela and Cuba. On the other hand, if Chinese shale gas addresses more of their energy needs, their interest in the region may wane over time."

--- Cuba ---

Solves Cuba Engagement

Cuba says yes. Xinhua 12. ["Cuba, China to strengthen economic, trade ties" September 27 -- news.xinhuanet.com/english/china/201209/27/c_131876461.htm]

Top officials from Cuba and China reaffirmed here Wednesday their commitment to strengthening bilateral economic and trade ties. At the 25th Session of the China-Cuba Intergovernmental Commission, Chinese Minister of Commerce Chen Deming stressed the importance of developing and improving bilateral cooperation and promoting business ties between the two sides as some European countries
are struggling with their debt crises. Chen said that during the meeting co-chaired by him and Ricardo Cabrisas, vice president of Cuba's Council of Ministers, the

two sides "discussed and reached broad consensus on issues of mutual concern." He believed the meeting "will perfect bilateral cooperation of mutual benefit and deepen our economic and trade relations." Chen added that the Sino-Cuban ties and friendship are at their best time in history. For his part, Cabrisas said the year 2012 has seen significant advances in bilateral ties especially in the field of economy and trade. Cuban leader Raul Castro visited China in July, during which the two countries signed several important agreements on health care, computer technology, banking, agriculture and trade tariffs. He also praised the efforts made by related government agencies of both countries to formulate a basic strategy for consolidating and developing bilateral ties in the medium and long term.

China solves Aff- has experience with Cuban Infrastructure Hearn, Adrian H. 12, (Convenor of international relations at the University of Sydney China Studies Centre. He is a co-editor
of China Engages Latin America: Tracing the Trajectory) Global Governance and the Future of Cuba, in: Journal of Current Chinese Affairs, 41, 1, 155-179. GIGA German Institute of Global and Area Studies, Institute of Asian Studies cooperation with the National Institute of Chinese Studies, White Rose East Asia Centre at the Universities of Leeds and Sheffield and Hamburg University Press. http://journals.sub.uni-hamburg.de/giga/jcca/article/viewFile/498/496]

In his former speech, delivered at Cubas leading IT training facility, the University of Information Science (UCI), Hu noted that thousands of the computers on campus came at subsidised prices from China, with the express purpose of advancing Cubas IT capacities. His latter speech, delivered at the Tarar
President Hus two main speeches in Cuba during his 2004 and 2008 visits focused on human capital development. Student City, confirmed Chinas intention to send 5,000 students to Cuba to study medicine, tourism and Spanish. The

recruitment of Chinese technicians to live in Cuba to supervise and train the local workforce in 37 Chinese investment projects, proposed during the 2008 visit, will advance this goal if the projects are implemented. The integration of infrastructure upgrading with IT and electronics training has laid the foundation for a coordinated industrial chain that supports domestic manufacturing along with the shipment of goods to markets around Cuba and potentially to neighbouring Latin American and Caribbean countries. Facilitated by the refurbishment of Cubas ports with Chinese equipment, this strategy could significantly advance both countries regional influence (Frank 2006). State-tostate cooperation with China has helped Cuba to establish the basic infrastructure it needs for economic growth. The challenge now facing the island is to employ this platform to support private initiative and harness the
productive potentials of the market. As Robert B. Reich famously wrote three decades ago, Economies are like bicycles. The faster they move, the better they maintain their balance unaided (Reich 1982). The Chinese government adopted this strategy of gradual liberalisation at home in the early 1980s, and has repeatedly advocated it to Cuban officials ever since Fidel Castros 1995 meeting with Premier Li Peng in Beijing (Cheng 2007; Jiang 2009). After 15 years of hearing their advice, Cubas reformers led by Ral Castro

 are now listening. Cubas sixth Communist Party Congress, which took place in April 2011, showed a growing acceptance of the market as a catalyst for national development. The Economic and Social Policy Guidelines approved by the congress declared that ownership of private property, long considered antithetical to socialism, is now considered acceptable on the condition that it is not

The critical concern has therefore become how the state might leverage its considerable institutional capacities to optimise and guide economic performance.
concentrated (Repblica de Cuba 2011: 5, 11).

Solves Cuba Oil

China can finance modernization of Cubas oil industry, manufacturing and infrastructure Hearn 12(Adrian H. Hearn, Australian Research Council fellow at the University of Sydney, cochair of the Latin American Studies Association, China, Global Governance and the Future of Cuba, Journal of Current Chinese Affairs, German Institute of Global and Area Studies, January 7 2012, http://journals.sub.uni-hamburg.de/giga/jcca/article/viewFile/498/496) State-to-state cooperation has focused on building critical infrastructure as a basis for Cuban economic growth. Bilateral projects have targeted the upgrading of Cuban manufacturing, the gradual opening of markets, the coordination of industrial sectors, and more recently the controlled introduction of private entrepreneurship. As Chinese enterprises become increasingly comfortable with the rules of market exchange, Cubas slow implementation of reforms has generated bilateral tensions. However, since Ral Castro replaced his brother as Cubas president, the pace of change has quickened, and Chinas domestic experience with economic reform has assumed growing relevance for the island. Chinas interest in developing Cuban manufacturing capacities and
markets extends back to collapse of the Soviet Union. Following an initial shipment of 500,000 Chinese bicycles to Cuba in the early 1990s, Mao Xianglin, a former envoy of the Central Committee of the CCP, visited Cuba in 1997 to assist in the establishment of a bicycle factory with Chinese capital and technical expertise. The success of the initiative led to a similar export-to-production scheme for electric fans. Mao described this as an incremental strategy that Chinese businesses have since employed across a range of sectors in Cuba: I would hesitate to say that our Cuban manufacturing operations are entirely commercial, because what were doing is broader than that. Were

trying to help Cuba to incrementally upgrade its technical ability. If our products prove popular and useful then we assist by setting up factories. *+ Using Chinese expertise, Cuba could come to produce electronic goods for sale to Latin America (Mao 2007). Chinese technical and financial assistance to Cuba demonstrates the sincerity of these words. During a 2001 visit to Cuba, Chinese President Jiang Zemin offered an interest-free credit line of 6.5 million USD and a loan of 200 million USD to modernise local telecommunications with Chinese products, and a 150 million USD credit to buy Chinese televisions (Erikson and Minson 2006: 14). Following the successful sale of Chinese washing machines, televisions, air conditioners, and refrigerators to Cuba, Hu Jintao signed 16 accords in 2004 pledging Chinese support for the domestic manufacture of these and other goods. This promise has materialised in a facility next to Havanas Lenin Park, where television sets and other light
consumer products are assembled. Indicating the success of the scheme, in November 2009 the Cuban Ministry of Information and Communications Grupo de la Electrnica entered into a joint venture with Chinese electronics giant Haier to domestically manufacture computer components and assemble household consumer goods (Cubaencuentro 2009). In addition to distributing the resulting televisions and refrigerators to the population through neighbourhood committees, Ral Castro has opened new opportunities for Chinese exporters to test the Cuban market by lifting restrictions on the sale of DVD players, mobile phones, computers, and other Chinese-made products. Visiting Cuba for a second time in November 2008, Hu

offered extensions on the repayment of previous loans, a donation of 8 million USD for hurricane relief, and a credit line of 70 million USD for health infrastructure (Granma 2008: 5). The visit also cleared the way for the CNPC to invest 6 billion USD in both the expansion of an oil refinery in Cienfuegos to produce 150,000 barrels per day and the construction of a liquefied natural gas plant on the same site. The complex is expected to process reserves from untapped fields off Cubas north coast, which according to the United States Geological Survey contain 5.5 million barrels of crude oil and 9.8 trillion cubic feet of
natural gas. Exploration of the field commenced in early 2012 despite US security and environmental concerns (COHA 2011; Hutchinson-Jafar 2011; Pin 2011: 24).

Solves Cuba Economic Reform/Solves Embargo

Chinese led economic reforms solve the Cuban economy results in the removal of the embargo. Nash 13. [Paul, Contributing Editor and China analyst, "How the Chinese are Helping to Transform Cuba, Again" Diplomatic
Courier -- May 24 -- www.diplomaticourier.com/news/regions/brics/1465-how-the-chinese-are-helping-to-transform-cuba-again]

China is Cubas second largest trading partner after Venezuela, and Cuba is Chinas largest trading partner in the Caribbean, with bilateral trade now standing at around $2 billion. Beijing wants to help Cuba push through market-oriented economic reforms, knowing from its own experience over the past three decades that private sector entrepreneurial activity can stimulate foreign investment, build national capital and promote domestic consumption. To this end, China has granted Cuba numerous long-term low or interestfree loans to support development and maintain financial and social stability through the reform process. It has also undertaken significant technology transfers and entered into joint ventures in farming, light industry, and tourism. Cuba has started the reform process focussed on its biggest export industries. It has, for example, begun
restructuring its ailing sugar industry by abolishing the sugar ministry and creating Azcuba, a state holding company consisting of 13 provincial sugar companies that operate 56 sugar mills and 850 sugarcane farms. Azcuba signed foreign investment agreements with companies from Brazil and Britain in 2012 to modernize harvesting equipment and build biomass energy plants. Cuba exports about 400,000 tonnes of sugar annually to China, more than half the amount it produces for domestic consumption. Chinas interest in Cuba is, of course, inseparable from the Caribbeans natural resources and those of Latin America more broadly. The

Sino-Cuban economic fraternity, from Beijings viewpoint, is largely

pragmatic rather than idealistic. Beijing has demonstrated that it will conduct business with left-leaning governments like Venezuela and Ecuador as readily as with right-leaning governments like Chile and Colombia. The Sino-Cuban partnership may represent a lost opportunity for the United States in promoting liberal democracy in the Western Hemisphere. But it may also represent a path to normalized relations if China can help Cubas economy reform such that it, like Vietnams, no longer justifies the continuation of a decades-old U.S. trade embargo on the basis that Cubas economy is dominated or controlled by international communism.

Solves Resource Affs

China solves resource engagement better. Hearn 9. [Dr. Adrian, research fellow at the School of Social and Political Sciences, the University of Sydney, "Cuba and China:
Lessons and Opportunities for the United States" The Cuban Research Institute - Florida International University -- June -cri.fiu.edu/research/commissioned-reports/cuba-china-hearn.pdf]

China often pays for developing country natural resources with trade credits, construction equipment, infrastructure upgrading, and technical training rather than hard currency (Robles 2005). The significance of such exchanges does not lie in their capacity to generate short-term commerce, but rather in the more encompassing goal of building stable alliances, political trust, and economic growth over the long term. This is facilitated by direct collaboration between the Cuban and Chinese governments, whose state-owned enterprises do not duplicate, undercut, or
compete with each other. Even Chinas more strictly commercial goals in Cuba, such as filling Cuban homes and stores with Chinese electronic appliances, have been accomplished in close collaboration with the Cuban state.

--- Mexico ---

Mexico Says Yes

Mexico says yes Nieto wants Chinese engagement. Market Watch 13. ["Mexico building bridges with China" April 28 -- www.marketwatch.com/story/mexico-buildingbridges-with-china-2013-04-28]

Mexicos new president, Enrique Pena Nieto, wants to redefine bilateral relations with China. In a trip to the southern province of Hainan in early April, four months after he took office, the 47-year-old Pena Nieto met with the head of Chinas new leadership, Xi Jinping; announced the establishment of a government agency to handle trade with China; and repeatedly sent the message that the two economies can complement each other, rather than compete. Ive come to reaffirm, and to also confirm very clearly, the interest Mexico has to expand its relationship with China, Pena Nieto said in an exclusive interview with
Caixin on April 6. Sino-Mexican economic relations have long been tense. Both are major suppliers of manufactured goods, especially to the United States. Mexico was the last country to sign a bilateral deal with China in 2001 to pave the latters way into the World Trade Organization, and it has launched several WTO complaints against Chinese exports. Mexicos trade deficit with China is the largest among its trade partners. China has set up strategic relationship with many Latin American countries, but economic ties with Mexico have long been one of the worst because both are competing for the North American market, said Dong Jingsheng, deputy professor of history at Peking University. (Pena Nieto)

choosing to emphasize Sino-Mexican relations at this particular moment might be triggered by sluggish U.S. growth in recent years, and Chinas robust development means Mexico can benefit from a strong bilateral ties. Pena Nietos formula to beef up relations is to let Mexico learn from Chinas experience in economic growth, and to have the two countries products integrate in a global, value-added chain.

Solves Mexico Engagement

Cp solves new era in relations means Mexico says yes. FNL 13. [Fox News Latino, "China's President wants to open the floodgates of trade with Mexico" June 2 -latino.foxnews.com/latino/money/2013/06/02/china-president-wants-to-open-floodgates-trade-with-mexico/]

Over the last few years, China has invested heavily in resource-rich Latin America, striking major trade deals with governments from Venezuela to Argentina. And now the Asian power house is reaching out to Mexico, one of the few countries in the region where ties have been slow to develop On Tuesday President Xi Jinping begins a
three-day visit to the region just as Mexico debates opening its highly regulated energy sector to more foreign investment.

China's president has said he plans to address Mexico's large trade deficit with the Asian power and discuss ways to increase Mexican exports. Analysts say that could mean oil, which Mexico has and
China needs to fuel its expanding economy and the cars of its growing middle class. "Access to strategic raw materials is key to understanding the dynamic of relations with China," said Hugo Beteta, director for Mexico and Central America of the United Nations Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean. "Clearly there is an interest by China in Mexican oil." The trip is part of a four-country regional tour that ends in the United States. Xi started in Trinidad and Tobago, where he also met with leaders of other Caribbean countries, and he arrives Sunday night in Costa Rica. China and Trinidad have had diplomatic ties for almost 40 years, and Trinidad is a major trading partner in the Caribbean for China. Costa Rica is the only country in Central America to have diplomatic relations with China. U.S. trade still dwarfs China's for the three countries Xi is visiting. But China's trade with Costa Rica and with Mexico has tripled since 2006, according to the International Monetary Fund. Relations

with Mexico had

been chilly in the past, especially when former President Felipe Calderon hosted the Dalai Lama in 2011, something China's
Foreign Ministry said "hurt the feelings of the Chinese people and harmed Chinese-Mexican relations." President Enrique Pena

Nieto, who took office in December, has been aggressive so far about changing that, and the two new
presidents reportedly hit if off on a personal level when Pena Nieto visited China and met with Xi in April. That resulted in an unusually quick diplomatic follow-up, just two months into Xi's presidency. During the April talks, Xi

said "he is committed

to working with Mexican authorities to help Mexico export more," Mexico's vice minister of foreign relations, Carlos de Icaza, told The Associated Press. That's key for Mexico, because its trade deficit with China is exploding, far surpassing that of any other Latin American nation. While China is looking to assure supplies of raw
materials, Mexico is looking to diversify its trade and investment, which have long been dominated by its superpower neighbor to the north. "In the new global geopolitical and economic map, China is, and I think it has economic power," De Icaza said. Mexico

arrived to stay, the world's second "has to understand and strengthen relations with a nation that has such great strategic value." De Icaza said the countries hope to sign at least a dozen agreements in the fields of trade, energy, tourism, science and technology during Xi's visit.

Mexico says yes to China- bilateral relations opening up investment

MERCOPRESS 6/7, [MercoPress is an independent news agency which focuses on delivering news related to
Mercosur-member countries, covering an area of influence which includes the South Atlantic and insular territories.] Mexico and China leave behind mistrust and agree on strategic partnership, http://en.mercopress.com/2013/06/07/mexico-and-china-leave-behind-mistrust-and-agree-on-strategic-partnership

Xi pointed out that China and Mexico have just agreed to upgrade their bilateral relations to a comprehensive strategic partnership, which creates more favourable conditions and opens a vaster space for the development of trade and economic cooperation. The Chinese president urged both sides to see each other as partners and an important opportunity for development, and to strengthen China-Mexico economic and trade cooperation from a strategic perspective. Xi
said that the two countries should foster new growth points for bilateral investment in such areas as energy, mining, infrastructure and high-tech industry, while tapping the full potential of their cooperation in traditional fields. The two sides should work in the spirit of mutual respect and mutual benefit to optimize their trade structure, resolve their differences through amicable negotiations and seek trade balance in an active manner, he said. Addressing

the same conference, Mexican President Enrique Pea Nieto said China is an important partner for Mexico, and the upgrade of bilateral

ties to comprehensive strategic partnership has opened broad prospects for economic and trade cooperation between the two countries. He said the two countries should explore new areas and new means of cooperation so as to promote a more balanced growth of bilateral trade and achieve win-win results. Mexico is willing to create favourable conditions to attract more Chinese investment, he pledged.

Solves Mexico Energy (General)

China solves Mexico energy investment key model. Esenaro 13. [Alberto, corporate lawyer in Mexico, expertise in high-profile corporate law with practice strong focus on
foreign investment, energy, "MEXICO AND CHINA: AN EXPANDING ECONOMIC PARTNERSHIP" Before You Do Business -- May 1 -beforeyoudobusiness.com/archives/787] While Mexicos economy has been growing steadily since the implementation of NAFTA and various other free trade agreements with dozens of other countries, the general perception has been that the countrys main trading partners and investors have been the United States and Japan. However, Mexicos

partnership with manufacturing and economic powerhouse China has been gaining steam over the past few years and is showing positive signs of continued and expanding growth. Mexican President Enrique Pea Nieto, on the evening before his visit to China, in a written interview with Xinhua, Chinas top news service, spoke of his pledge to increase ties with China in a way that both countries can enjoy a win-win situation. China should and can be a strategic partner to the Latin American country, he said. Remarkable opportunities exist in many sectors, including infrastructure and trade. Mexico can be a gateway for China to enter North America, the worlds richest
market. It can so be a point of access to several countries in Central America and the Caribbean. said Pea Nieto. This could very well be of high interest to Chinese companies such as Huawei and ZTE, two telecoms companies who have been effectively shut out of the American telecom market, a market Chinese telecoms have been wanting to crack for quite a long time. While their products may still not get into the U.S. market, both ZTE and Huawei could become involved in the potentially lucrative Mexican telecom sector, where reforms have recently been passed to allow foreign investment. President Pea Nieto continued, stressing the things that Chinese and Mexican people have in common such as an ancient culture and economic exchanges. After mentioning the above points of what Mexico can offer China, he spoke of what China can offer Mexico in return. For

Mexico, China represents an opportunity to increase its productive investment, and multiply and diversify its export capacity. Chinas economic dynamism, the size of its market and its high demand for goods, turn China into an attractive market for Mexico. he said. In order for an economic partnership to be
long-lasting and beneficial for both sides, the Mexican head of state mentioned that friendship and cultural understanding are key. The expansion of Chinas Confucius Institute in the Spanish-speaking country would be a very effective way for Mexicans to learn about Chinas traditions and learn Mandarin, while Mexico can increase the awareness of Mexican culture in China by the means of Spanish-language courses and showing Chinese people the opportunities that Mexico can offer them. Most importantly however,

the Mexican president stated how an economic partnership would be beneficial to both countries in the energy and infrastructure industries . China is a country that imports much of its energy, and Mexico has massive reserves of oil and gas; the countrys oil industry needs an overall upgrade, which Chinese companies could very well provide if reforms to Mexicos energy sector go through. Furthermore, the president mentioned that when it comes to trains: China is, without doubt, an excellent model on the issue he said. We have much to learn from its successful history in railway infrastructure.

China solves Mexican oil theyll say yes. FNL 13. [Fox News Latino, "China's President wants to open the floodgates of trade with Mexico" June 2 -latino.foxnews.com/latino/money/2013/06/02/china-president-wants-to-open-floodgates-trade-with-mexico/]

Over the last few years, China has invested heavily in resource-rich Latin America, striking major trade deals with governments from Venezuela to Argentina. And now the Asian power house is reaching out to Mexico, one of the few countries in the region where ties have been slow to develop On Tuesday President Xi Jinping begins a three-day visit to the region just as Mexico debates opening its highly regulated energy sector to more foreign investment. China's president has said he plans to address Mexico's large trade deficit with the Asian power
and discuss ways to increase Mexican exports. Analysts say that could mean oil, which Mexico has and China needs to fuel its expanding economy and the cars of its growing middle class. "Access to

strategic raw materials is key to

understanding the dynamic of relations with China," said Hugo Beteta, director for Mexico and Central America of the United Nations Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean. "Clearly there is an interest by China in Mexican oil." The trip is part of a four-country regional tour that ends in the United States. Xi started in Trinidad and
Tobago, where he also met with leaders of other Caribbean countries, and he arrives Sunday night in Costa Rica. China and Trinidad have had diplomatic ties for almost 40 years, and Trinidad is a major trading partner in the Caribbean for China. Costa Rica is the only country in Central America to have diplomatic relations with China. U.S. trade still dwarfs China's for the three countries Xi is visiting. But China's trade with Costa Rica and with Mexico has tripled since 2006, according to the International Monetary Fund.

Relations with Mexico had been chilly in the past, especially when former President Felipe Calderon hosted the
Dalai Lama in 2011, something China's Foreign Ministry said "hurt the feelings of the Chinese people and harmed Chinese-Mexican relations." President Enrique Pena Nieto, who took office in December, has

been aggressive so far about changing that, and the two new presidents reportedly hit if off on a personal level when Pena Nieto visited China and met with Xi in April. That resulted in an unusually quick diplomatic follow-up, just two months into Xi's presidency. During the April talks, Xi said "he is committed to working with Mexican authorities to help Mexico export more," Mexico's vice minister of foreign relations, Carlos de Icaza, told The Associated Press. That's key for Mexico, because its trade deficit with China is exploding, far surpassing that of any other Latin American nation. While China is
looking to assure supplies of raw materials, Mexico is looking to diversify its trade and investment, which have long been dominated by its superpower neighbor to the north. "In the new global geopolitical and economic map, China is, and I think it has

arrived to stay, the world's second economic power," De Icaza said. Mexico "has to understand and strengthen relations with a nation that has such great strategic value." De Icaza said the countries hope to sign at least a dozen agreements in the fields of trade, energy, tourism, science and technology during Xi's visit. Mexican exports to China came to a bit over $5.7 billion in 2012, while its imports from that
country stood at almost $57 billion, according to statistics from Mexico's Economy Department. Cell phones, video games and parts for electronics factories have been pouring into Mexico, which sends China minerals such as copper and lead. Overall trade between China and Latin America has expanded quickly over the past decade and the continent now imports more from China than it does from the European Union, according to the U.N. economic agency for the region. Many countries balance those imports by sending China raw materials: oil from Venezuela, copper from Chile, soybeans from Argentina. But Mexico's exports go overwhelmingly to the huge U.S. market right on its border. Beteta noted that China imports three-quarters of the oil it consumes. "China needs to guarantee oil for its citizens' cars, but also obviously for its economy as a whole, which has a high energy intensity, and Mexico is an oil power," he said. At the same time, Pena Nieto's

government has said that it will soon present an energy reform bill to allow greater national and international investment in its oil sector. It hasn't revealed the details of the initiative, but Beteta said it "has awakened the appetite of many people." State oil company Petroleos Mexicanos, or Pemex, already has taken small steps to increase its relationship with China, which until recently had been minimal.

AT: Mexico Says No Trade Deficit

Xi making moves to solve trade deficit concerns Mexico says yes.
Over the last few years, China has invested heavily in resource-rich Latin America, striking major trade deals with governments from Venezuela to Argentina. And now the Asian power house is reaching out to Mexico, one of the few countries in the region where ties have been slow to develop On Tuesday President Xi Jinping begins a three-day visit to the region just as Mexico debates opening its highly regulated energy sector to more foreign investment. China's president has said he plans to address Mexico's large trade deficit with the Asian power and discuss ways to increase Mexican exports. Analysts say that could
mean oil, which Mexico has and China needs to fuel its expanding economy and the cars of its growing middle class. "Access to strategic raw materials is key to understanding the dynamic of relations with China," said Hugo Beteta, director for Mexico and Central America of the United Nations Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean. "Clearly there is an interest by China in Mexican oil." The trip is part of a four-country regional tour that ends in the United States. Xi started in Trinidad and Tobago, where he also met with leaders of other Caribbean countries, and he arrives Sunday night in Costa Rica. China and Trinidad have had diplomatic ties for almost 40 years, and Trinidad is a major trading partner in the Caribbean for China. Costa Rica is the only country in Central America to have diplomatic relations with China. U.S. trade still dwarfs China's for the three countries Xi is visiting. But China's trade with Costa Rica and with Mexico has tripled since 2006, according to the International Monetary Fund.

Relations with Mexico had been chilly in the past, especially when former President Felipe Calderon hosted the
Dalai Lama in 2011, something China's Foreign Ministry said "hurt the feelings of the Chinese people and harmed Chinese-Mexican relations." President Enrique Pena Nieto, who took office in December, has

been aggressive so far about changing that, and the two new presidents reportedly hit if off on a personal level when Pena Nieto visited China and met with Xi in April. That resulted in an unusually quick diplomatic follow-up, just two months into Xi's presidency. During the April talks, Xi said "he is committed to working with Mexican authorities to help Mexico export more," Mexico's vice minister of foreign relations, Carlos de Icaza, told The Associated Press. That's key for Mexico, because its trade deficit with China is exploding, far surpassing that of any other Latin American nation.

--- Venezuela ---

Solves Venezuelan Oil

China solves Venezuelan oil better empirics. Cerna 11. [Michael, staff @ CRC, "China's growing presence in Latin America: Implications for US and Chinese presence in the
region" China Research Center -- Vol 10 No 1 -- www.chinacenter.net/chinas-growing-presence-in-latin-america-implications-for-u-sand-chinese-presence-in-the-region/]

In 2009, China became Brazils largest single export market, eclipsing the U.S. for the first time in history. Later, Brazils then-president, Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, and his Chinese counterpart, Hu Jintao, signed an agreement that allowed the China Development Bank and Sinopec to loan Brazils state-controlled oil company, Petrobras, $10 billion in return for as many as 200,000 barrels a day of crude oil for ten years (Economist, 2009). This is but one example of how China is seizing lending opportunities in Latin America when traditional lenders such as the Inter-American Development Bank are being pushed to their limits. Just one of
Chinas loans, the $10 billion for Brazils national oil company, is almost as much as the $11.2 billion in all approved financing by the Inter-American Bank in 2008, according to The New York Times. It was not

only in Brazil that China went after oil. In order to meet rising industrial needs and consumer demand, China has pursued investments and agreements with a variety of Latin American oil producers. In 2007 Venezuela agreed to a $6 billion joint investment fund for infrastructure projects at home and for oil refineries in China able to process Venezuelan heavy crude oil (Santiso, 2007). Venezuela planned to increase oil exports to China by 300,000 barrels per day. Then in 2009, Venezuela announced a $16 billion investment deal with the Chinese National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC) for oil exploration in the Orinoco River to develop heavy crude oil resources (Economist, 2009). Meanwhile, the CNPC has invested $300 million in technology to use Venezuelas Orimulsion fuel in Chinese power plants. This exemplifies Venezuelas desire to break away from the U.S.
During a visit to China in 2004, President Chavez said shifting exports to China would help end dependency on sales to the United States (Johnson, 2005).

Venezuela prefers Chinese oil engagement no strings attached. Romero and Barrionuevo 9. [Simon, Brazil bureau chief, Alexei, journalist, "Deals help China expand sway in Latin
America" New York Times -- April 15 -- www.nytimes.com/2009/04/16/world/16chinaloan.html?_r=0]

China has also pushed into Latin American countries where the United States has negligible influence, like Venezuela. In February, Chinas vice president, Xi Jinping, traveled to Caracas to meet with President Hugo Chvez. The two men announced that a Chinese-backed development fund based here would grow to $12 billion from $6 billion, giving Venezuela access to hard currency while agreeing to increase oil shipments to China to one million barrels a day from a level of about 380,000 barrels. Mr. Chvezs government contends the Chinese aid differs from other multilateral loans because it comes without strings attached, like scrutiny of internal finances. But the Chinese fund has generated
criticism among his opponents, who view it as an affront to Venezuelas sovereignty.

China engagement solves Venezuelan oil. Grant 9. [Will, Mexico and Central America Correspondent, "China in huge Venezuela oil deal" BBC News -- September 17 -news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/8260200.stm]

Venezuela has announced a $16bn (10bn) investment deal with China for oil exploration in the Orinoco river. The move comes shortly after Venezuela signed a similar agreement with Russia, which is estimated to be $20bn (12bn). President Hugo Chavez said the deals would boost oil production in Venezuela by about 900,000 barrels per day. Investors in Venezuela's oil industry have complained for months that a lack of government investment in infrastructure has hurt production. Multi-polar world Speaking on state television, Mr Chavez said the deal with China was over three years and that the investment would go towards developing heavy crude oil resources in the Orinoco River belt. For President Chavez it is part of a wider effort to increase his base of bilateral partners in the oil industry.

China solves all aspects of the oil industry. Giacalone and Ruiz 13. [Rita, PhD, History -- Indiana University, Professor @ Faculty of Economic and Social Sciences of
the University of the Andes, Mrida, Venezuela, Jose, PhD, Political Science @ Institute d'Etudes Politiques d'Aix-en-Provence, Professor @ Faculty of Economic and Social Sciences of the University of the Andes, Mrida., "The ChineseVenezuelan Oil Agreements: Material and Nonmaterial Goals" Latin American Policy -- Vol 4, Issue 1, June -onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/lamp.12006/full] President Chvez visited China and signed energy-related agreements in 1999, but the beginning of a

new era in

VenezuelanChinese relations can be dated to 2001, with the establishment of a strategic alliance between the two countries. The first action in the construction of such an alliance was the creation of a High Level Joint Commission to coordinate relations between the two countries. Since then, Chvez visited China several times, the
Chinese president visited Caracas in 2010, and high-level representatives of the Chinese government have been in Venezuela to discuss mechanisms to activate the strategic alliance. Even before, the

Chinese government had fostered agreements with the Venezuelan oil state company, PDVSA, and Chinese oil companies had been operating Venezuelan oilfields in the Maracaibo Lake Basin (CNPC in Venezuela, 2012). Bilateral cooperation in the oil sector increased and deepened after 2006. There are at least five categories of agreements related to oil and energy issues: (1) oil supply agreements, by which Venezuela is engaged in the provision of oil to China; (2) agreements to promote Chinese participation in the exploration and exploitation of oil in the Orinoco Belt; (3) financial cooperation agreements in which China provides loans to develop economic and social projects, and Venezuela pays them by sending fuel and crude oil to China; (4) agreements in which China supplies capital goods, such as drills or tankers, or services; and (5) agreements on infrastructure, in particular the construction of refineries in China to process Venezuelan oil. Oil supply agreements and exploration and exploitation agreements represent the majority of treaties signed between China and Venezuela, but financial agreements and capital supply
agreements are also important (Figure 1).

Venezuela says yes. Giacalone and Ruiz 13. [Rita, PhD, History -- Indiana University, Professor @ Faculty of Economic and Social Sciences of
the University of the Andes, Mrida, Venezuela, Jose, PhD, Political Science @ Institute d'Etudes Politiques d'Aix-en-Provence, Professor @ Faculty of Economic and Social Sciences of the University of the Andes, Mrida., "The ChineseVenezuelan Oil Agreements: Material and Nonmaterial Goals" Latin American Policy -- Vol 4, Issue 1, June -onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/lamp.12006/full] Table 1 shows the chronology of exploration and exploitation agreements. During President Chvez's visit to China in October 1999, the most important agreements established a joint commission to explore and foster initiatives of cooperation in energy and an agreement to supply Orimulsion to China. In 2001, the

Venezuelan minister of foreign affairs, Luis Alfonso Dvila, and the Chinese minister of planning and development, Zeng Peiyan, signed a memorandum of understanding for energy cooperation between 2001 and 2011 (Memorandum de Entendimiento entre el
Ministerio de Energa y Minas de la Repblica Bolivariana de Venezuela y la Comisin Estatal de Planificacin y Desarrollo de la

Repblica Popular China sobre la Cooperacin Energtica Decenal, 20012011). According to this agreement, the

Venezuelan government would foster the participation of Chinese oil firms in the development of studies leading to their participation in investments for oil exploration in Venezuela and as shareholders or operators in the exploitation of hydrocarbons. Both governments would foster cooperation between their oil firms; carry on conversations to sign an agreement to drill the Zumano oilfield; promote cooperation in the development of Orimulsion; and explore mechanisms to increase their firms' cooperation in coal, electricity, and new sources of energy, and the Chinese government would encourage its firms to participate in the provision of technical services and oil engineering in Venezuela and exports of oil materials.

Ext: Venezuela Prefers China

China is the preferred partner. Giacalone and Ruiz 13. [Rita, PhD, History -- Indiana University, Professor @ Faculty of Economic and Social Sciences of
the University of the Andes, Mrida, Venezuela, Jose, PhD, Political Science @ Institute d'Etudes Politiques d'Aix-en-Provence, Professor @ Faculty of Economic and Social Sciences of the University of the Andes, Mrida., "The ChineseVenezuelan Oil Agreements: Material and Nonmaterial Goals" Latin American Policy -- Vol 4, Issue 1, June -onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/lamp.12006/full]

In Venezuela, this cooperation must be understood in the context of the new foreign policy fostered by its government. One of its goals is the promotion of a multipolar world, in response to U.S. hegemony after the end of the Cold War. As Corrales (2010, p. 115) has pointed out, Chvez has elevated relations with China to almost national priority. He considers deepening ties with China as vital for constructing a more multipolar world, lessening Venezuela's dependence on U.S. markets for oil. In an official document of the
Venezuela embassy in the United Kingdom, this objective is clearly established:

Solves Venezuelan Trade

China is a key market for Venezuelan trade. Arsenault 13. [Chris, Web Producer, "Venezuela looks to China for economic boost" Al Jazeera -- March 12 -www.aljazeera.com/indepth/features/2013/03/201331271053389351.html]

Chinas economic and political footprint grows across Latin America and Africa, worrying some and of OrOctrading, a consulting firm, Sanchez sporting thick cufflinks with the red Chinese flag and a dark blazer - has been teaching Venezuelan companies about doing business with the worlds second-largest economy. Usually, manufactured goods from China are coming into Latin America and raw materials are going out, Sanchez told Al Jazeera. Venezuela has posted a positive trade balance with China, because of oil exports, but without those we would have a major deficit. Trade between Venezuela, holder of the worlds largest oil reserves, and China grew to $18bn in 2011, a 24-fold increase from 2003, reported China Daily, a government-backed newspaper.
As enriching others, Alvaro Ruiz Sanchez has his eyes on the prize. President Venezuela exports more than 500,000 barrels of oil to the Asian giant daily, according to government figures, and plans to increase that to one million by 2015. The two countries had signed 300 bilateral agreements, including 80 major projects, according to a University of Miami study in 2010. Looking east As years, Venezuela

relations between Venezuela and the US soured in recent looked away from its traditional trading partner towards the east. China could soon surpass the US as Venezuelas largest trading partner.

Solves Oil Infrastructure

China solves oil infrastructure in Venezuela. Giacalone and Ruiz 13. [Rita, PhD, History -- Indiana University, Professor @ Faculty of Economic and Social Sciences of
the University of the Andes, Mrida, Venezuela, Jose, PhD, Political Science @ Institute d'Etudes Politiques d'Aix-en-Provence, Professor @ Faculty of Economic and Social Sciences of the University of the Andes, Mrida., "The ChineseVenezuelan Oil Agreements: Material and Nonmaterial Goals" Latin American Policy -- Vol 4, Issue 1, June -onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/lamp.12006/full] The evolution of the agreements signed by the two countries can be seen in Figure 2, which highlights the interest of each country in promoting cooperation and how this has evolved. In the early stage (19992005), exploration and exploitation agreements prevailed, a fact that indicated Chinese interest in entering the Venezuelan oil sector as a first step to ensuring an increasing supply of oil from that country. Caracas

welcomed Chinese interest because, at that time, the government was ending the 2006, supply agreements and financial agreements (related to oil supply) were signed (Tables 1 and 2). When Chinese firms began to participate in the Venezuelan oil market, new needs emerged, and it was necessary to provide capital goods and services (Table 3). In the most recent stage, cooperation has evolved from exploration, exploitation, and supply of oil to infrastructure agreements, such as the construction of tankers and refineries (Table 4).
operating agreements signed in the 1990s and trying to diversify its partners beyond U.S. and European companies. Since

AT: China Cant Solve Venezuelan Crude Oil

New Asian infrastructure solves Venezuelan crude refinement. Blas 13. [Javier, Commodities Editor, "Venezuela fills void left by Iranian oil export sanctions" Financial Times -- June 13 -www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/47e7fad8-cdc3-11e2-8313-00144feab7de.html#axzz2ZQLFfjcZ] The impact of the sanctions on Iranian oil exports is not the only factor driving Venezuela into Asia, however. According to the US department of energy, Venezuela

has attempted to diversify its oil export destinations away from the US as a matter of national policy over the past few years. Venezuela has attempted to diversify its oil export
destinations away from the US - US department of energy But oil traders and analysts say that without the retreat of Iran due to the sanctions it would have been impossible for Caracas to win Asian market share so quickly. Amrita Sen, chief oil analyst at consultants Energy Aspects, said that the Iranian sanctions are helping Venezuelas diversification strategy, especially for countries like India and to an extent China, who are replacing Iranian crude with others. Rafael Ramrez,

Venezuelas oil minister, said during the recent meeting of the Opec oil cartel in Vienna that the growth of oil exports into Asia was the result of a successful oil market diversification strategy away from the US. Over the last
decade, Venezuelan oil exports to the US have fallen 25 per cent to an average of 900,000 b/d in 2012. The drop in exports has accelerated this year, with sales falling to a 25-year low of 579,000 b/d in February. The

construction of new and complex refineries in Asia has also paved the way for the arrival of the notoriously difficult-torefine Venezuelan crude in China and India. The repayment of several oil-for-loans programmes with China is also playing a big role in the surge in Venezuelan oil exports into Asia. Caracas is handing
about 400,000 b/d to Beijing to repay $40bn worth of loans signed between Petrleos de Venezuela, the state-owned oil company, with the China Development Bank in 2008-2011. In the past, CDB resold some of the oil into the market to raise cash, but as Iranian oil exports fall, the bank is shipping the oil into China. As a result,

China has become the fastest growing

destination for Venezuelan oil , growing from virtually nothing in 2005 to 10 per cent of Chinese total oil imports. The growing ties between Venezuela and India and China go deeper than oil exports. Caracas has also welcomed investments by Chinese and Indian oil companies in its hydrocarbons industry, at a
time when Tehran struggles to retain foreign investors, even from allies like Beijing, due to western sanctions.

--- Misc ---

China Solves TI
China solves transportation infrastructure investment in Latin America. Cerna 11. [Michael, staff @ CRC, "China's growing presence in Latin America: Implications for US and Chinese presence in the
region" China Research Center -- Vol 10 No 1 -- www.chinacenter.net/chinas-growing-presence-in-latin-america-implications-for-u-sand-chinese-presence-in-the-region/]

Chinas investments have been in the area of transportation, with an eye toward making resource deliveries more efficient. China is partnering with Brazil to improve Brazils railways and establish a rail link to the Pacific to cut transportation costs of iron ore and soybeans. Other countries also are benefitting from Chinese investment. China is proposing to build a rail link in Colombia to rival the Panama Canal. The 220- kilometer line would connect Cartagena, on the northern Atlantic coast of Colombia, with its Pacific coast,
making it easier for China to pass goods through Latin America and import raw materials. China is currently Colombias second -largest trade partner after the U.S., with bilateral trade rising from $10 million in 1980 to more than $5 billion in 2010, according to The Guardi ans Tania Branigan. At the same time, a

consortium of three companies from China, (as well as companies from Japan and South Korea) are bidding on a high speed rail project in Brazil to connect Rio, Sao Paulo and Campinas, which shows that Chinas focus goes beyond the coastal countries. In addition, China signed a $10 billion agreement with Argentina in July 2010 to refurbish two major rail lines, according to Global Intelligence Report. China signed an agreement to take a 40% stake in a Venezuelan rail project worth $7.5 billion in 2009. This project to connect oil-producing regions in Venezuela to the capital will assist China in maintaining a steady energy supply from Venezuela. There are also opportunities not paid for by China, but beneficial to the Asian country nonetheless. In
January 2011, Peru completed work on a road that connects the mountainous country to Brazil. This has the potential to boost Peruvian and Brazilian trade with Asia. Peru itself has had a free trade agreement with China since 2008.

China Solves LA Rail

China solves railway investment in Latin America expertise and resources. Branigan 11. [Tania, China correspondent, "China goes on the rails to rival Panama canal" The Guardian -- February 14 -www.guardian.co.uk/world/2011/feb/14/china-rail-rival-panama-canal]

The 220km rail connection would connect Cartagena, on the northern Atlantic coast of Colombia, with its Pacific coast making it easier for China to export its goods through the Americas and import raw
materials such as coal. "It's a real proposal and it is quite advanced," Juan Manuel Santos told the Financial Times (subscription). Although the link would be almost three times the length of the canal that cuts through neighbouring Panama, the president added: "The

studies [the Chinese] have made on the costs of transporting per tonne, the cost of investment, they all work out. "I don't want to create exaggerated expectations, but it makes a lot of sense Asia is the new motor of the world economy."
The success of the planned connection would depend on costs as well as speed. Sceptics point out the canal is undergoing a $5.25bn (3.3bn) expansion to double its capacity. Panama also has a rail route, built almost 60 years before the canal, which is more expensive than the waterway for shippers but faster. Rodolfo Sabonge, the Panama Canal Authority's vice-president for research, told the FT he was more concerned about competition from US rail freight services, which allow Asian exports to reach the east coast from west coast ports. A shipping executive told the newspaper that moving containers on to and off the link at either end would probably cost $200 each in addition to $100 fees for the rail transport. In comparison, fees for the canal are around $100 a container. But the plan also includes a proposal to build a new city south of Cartagena to assemble Chinese exports. Gao Zhengyue, China's ambassador to Colombia, told the FT: "Colombia has a very important strategic position, and we view the country as a port to the rest of Latin America." The ministry of foreign affairs in Beijing confirmed the proposal. The

project is reportedly one of several Chinese proposals to improve transport links with Asia. The most advanced is a $7.6bn plan to build a 791km railway and expand the port of
Buenaventura, on Colombia's Pacific coast. It would allow up to 40m tonnes of freight a year to be carried from Colombia to its ports and promote the export of coal to China, where demand is rising fast. Colombia's existing rail network already links Bogot with the Caribbean coast and the east of the country, but it has suffered from decades of underinvestment. The proposed route crosses three mountain chains and passes through remote areas dominated by leftist rebels and heavily armed drug-trafficking militias. Companies working on major infrastructure projects have often been the targets of sabotage and extortion by the country's warring factions. But China's

own ambitious railway expansion programme has given it experience of building at speed, and of tackling complex technical problems notably in constructing the line linking Tibet to the rest of China, which crosses 550km of continuous permafrost and must endure extreme temperatures. In addition to its massive domestic investment and its expansion of links to neighbours, China has also sought to export its expertise rebuilding Angola's rail network and signing deals with countries including Algeria and
South Africa. Earlier this month, Iran's Press TV reported that the two countries had signed a $13bn contract for China Railways to build 5,000km of track in Iran. Xu Shicheng, a researcher with the Institute of Latin-American Studies at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, pointed out that China

has already started building a railway in Venezuela and recently signed a deal with Argentina to construct another. "In the 70s and 80s, China was also helping to expand ports in Colombia. So I don't think it is surprising that China is building a railway there," he said. "China has a large foreign exchange reserve and it makes sense to invest in such projects. It is doing a lot of things in Latin America, such as building power stations in Ecuador and exploring iron and oil in Brazil."

China solves transportation investment. Global Intelligence Report 11. ["China and Brazil Leading Energy Infrastructure Investments in Latin America" Oil
Price -- March 10 -- oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/China-and-Brazil-Leading-Energy-Infrastructure-Investments-in-LatinAmerica.html]

Much of the infrastructure investment by outside powers in the 21st century, led by China , is being made for the same reasons it was in the 19th. Latin America remains a key raw materials exporter and getting those good
to markets, now largely in Asia, requires new transportation, energy and communications infrastructure. A few recent examples

China is leading the way. In July last year, China signed a $10 billion agreement with Argentina to refurbish the Belgrano Cargas freight rail line and an additional $2 billion agreement to upgrade the Ferrocarril Belgrano Norte y Sur. Two other initial agreements worth $1.5 billion each are related to a potential subway line in Cordoba and train line connecting the Buenos Aires Ezeiza airport. In 2009, China signed an agreement to take a 40% stake in a Venezuelan rail project worth $7.5 billion. This project to connect rural portions of Venezuela, oil producing regions and the capital is seen as part
suggest of Chinas interest in maintaining a steady energy supply from a Venezuela indebted to China for the next few decades due to recent agreements by President Chavez. Meanwhile, a consortium of three companies from China, (as well as companies from Japan and South Korea) are bidding on a high speed rail project in Brazil to connect Rio, Sao Paulo and Campinas. Beyond rail, Chinese

companies are building three hydroelectric dams in Ecuador. In total, China is financing over half of the energy infrastructure projects in Ecuador right now. However, the projects have not come without
controversy. One project, the Coca-Codo Sinclair Hydroelectric Project, which is 85% financed by China at a 6.9% interest rate, will divert water from Ecuadors highest waterfall, angering environmentalists and concerning those watching Ecuadors long term budget outlook.

AT: China Intl Fiat Bad

Its the most predictable. Global Intelligence Report 11. ["China and Brazil Leading Energy Infrastructure Investments in Latin America" Oil
Price -- March 10 -- oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/China-and-Brazil-Leading-Energy-Infrastructure-Investments-in-LatinAmerica.html]

Colombias announcement that China plans to build a railroad to serve as a canal alternative received widespread media coverage last month. However, the proposal is simply the most high profile of a growing pattern of outside infrastructure investment by new powers in Latin America.
Panama. Much In the 19th century, following Latin Americas independence, there was a stage of significant investment in the region by outside powers. This ranged from the UK investment in Argentine railroad system to the French building of a railroad and eventual US building of a canal in

of the infrastructure investment by outside powers in the 21st century , led by

China , is being made for the same reasons it was in the 19th. Latin America remains a key raw materials exporter
and getting those good to markets, now largely in Asia, requires new transportation, energy and communications infrastructure.

--- Answers To ---

AT: Red Spread

Chinas increased engagement doesnt sway Latin American political preferences UN votes prove. Dominguez 6. *Jorge, Professor @ Harvards Weatherhead Center for International Affairs, "China's Relations With Latin
America: Shared Gains, Asymmetric Hopes" Inter-American Dialogue Working Paper -- June -www.thedialogue.org/PublicationFiles/china.pdf]

Such a marked growth in Chinas trade relations with Latin America might be expected to shift Latin American foreign policies to accommodate Chinese interests. In this section, we examine the relative coincidence in the voting behavior of China and several Latin American countries in the United Nations General Assembly (the few votes missed are counted as abstentions along with the explicit abstentions) as one indicator for such behavior. We rely on the voting records from the 1991-92 to the
2002-03 sessions. For the sake of calibration, the extent of voting coincidence between Japana major world power also located in East Asiaand the same Latin American countries is included. The

key finding is that little change took

place over time in the voting coincidences between China and Japan and the four most important Latin American countries (Figures 3a through 3d). The movements in each case represent no trends; they are noise in the data. The marked increase in Sino-Latin American trade had no discernible effect on the voting behavior of the major Latin American countries in the U.N. General Assembly.

AT: Dutch Disease

China investment helps Latin America, no link to dutch disease. Hsiang 9. [Dr. Antonio, Associate Professor @ Chihlee Institute of Technology, Taiwan, "China rising in Latin America: More
opportunities than Challenges" Journal of Emerging Knowledge on Emerging Markets -- Vol 1 Issue 1 -- November -digitalcommons.kennesaw.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1003&context=jekem] A closer look at three

common perceptions of Chinas impact on emerging markets can help clarify whether or not Latin American countries can benefit from the ongoing shifting power equation in the world economy. Myth I: The main source of Chinas competitive advantage is cheap labor. Reality: Low labor costs in China are significant but the wide availability of capital, coupled with very high productivity growth levels, are equally important in explaining Chinas hardto-beat competitiveness. Myth II: China has a negative impact on FDI flows to other emerging markets. Reality: Most Latin American economies do not compete for the same type of FDI that China receives and Chinas investments in Latin America are only the beginning of a trend that offers many opportunities for the region. Myth III: Chinas rise benefits commodity exporting countries and adversely affects light- manufacturing exporting nations. Reality: Chinas rise offers opportunities in keeping and sustaining a manufacturing sector.38

Chinese investment in latin America key to its economy. Hsiang 9. [Dr. Antonio, Associate Professor @ Chihlee Institute of Technology, Taiwan, "China rising in Latin America: More
opportunities than Challenges" Journal of Emerging Knowledge on Emerging Markets -- Vol 1 Issue 1 -- November -digitalcommons.kennesaw.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1003&context=jekem] World Bank economists report that the

rise of China and India is bestowing substantive net benefits on Latin America through higher commodity prices, cheaper industrial inputs, and growing capital inflows. Moreover, if Latin American governments adopt appropriate investment and trade strategies, including negotiating bilateral free-trade agreements, Latin American exporters should be able to successfully penetrate the burgeoning Asian commercial markets and better integrate themselves into Asian-linked global production networks. No wonder economists from the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), generally concur with their World Bank counterparts that as seen through the Latin American lens, China is closer to heaven than hell.37

***NET BENEFIT***

--- Soft Power ---

1NC: Soft Power NB

Counterplan key to shore up Chinese soft power. Wiest 11. [Nailene Chou, Professor of financial journalism at the School of Journalism and Communication, Tsinghua
University, "Soft Power and China's Story in Latin America" Caixin Online -- September 11 -- english.caixin.com/2011-1109/100324170.html] The Spanish expression "cuento chino," or "Chinese story" is a synonym for "tall tale." It's a fitting expression for our times, since

China's size, population and spectacular economic achievements of late have inspired grand fantasies across Latin America. Barely a decade ago, China was the world's seventh-largest economy. Now, by the reckoning of the International
Monetary Fund, China will overtake the United States and become the world's largest economy in 2016. No wonder the developing world is held in thrall. There's likewise a

prevailing readiness to accept and emulate China, which in turn has given China a golden opportunity to extend its cultural soft power abroad. Indeed, promoting soft power overseas was a
policy goal recently declared by the Chinese government. The initiative recognizes that a nation's success on the world stage, as Harvard University's

China needs a convincing narrative. The China-Latin America attraction is easy to understand. China provides a growth model as a counterweight to the United States. Latin American countries have tried one failed development model after
Joseph Nye once said, "depends not only on whose army wins, but also on whose story wins." Yes, the story is important. Now,

another only to find themselves, unlike the dynamic economies of East Asia stuck in a slow-growth rut. State-led import substitution policies mired these countries in self-imposed isolation and inefficiencies. Neoliberal

policies in line with the Washington Consensus led to dependency on fickle capital inflow. China's economic success, achieved via controlled economic liberalization and by expanding technical capacities in order to attract foreign investment, offers a viable alternative. In the second half of the 20th century, Mao
Zedong's doctrine of guerrilla warfare which once shone like a beacon guiding fervent revolutionaries in South America faded into the Andean jungles. But since launching its capitalist transformation, China has avoided ideological exports. It carefully keeps a safe distance from leftist politics in Venezuela and Bolivia, while adhering to mercantilist policies: Doing business for business' sake. Latin American countries that today count China as their No. 1 trading partner, such as Brazil, Chile and Peru, have benefited enormously as Chinese commodity purchases boosted export revenues and helped them weather the 2008 financial crisis. In contrast, countries overly dependent on the United States, such as Mexico, were hurt more than others during that recent downturn. With the U.S. economy in recession, cash-rich China

is now in a unique position to invest in capital-intensive projects. "Cuento chino" is more relevant than ever this year amid buzz over an US$
8 billion railroad project scheduled to link two Colombian cities: the port of Cartagena on the Caribbean Sea, and Buenaventura on the Pacific Ocean. This would be an engineering feat that arguably only the Chinese could accomplish: A 220-kilometer railway across floodplains and three mountain ranges, and through a region marred by drug-trafficking violence. The rail project's plans sparked wild speculation about China's intent and what some said was an unabashed incursion into America's backyard. The story got more intriguing when the railway started being called a "canal seco," or "dry canal," by those who guessed ships would be ferried on railroad cars from sea to sea. Infatuation with China, however, can quickly turn to antipathy. An economic powerhouse China may be, but it can hardly be called a gentle giant. It's actually a voracious monster, gobbling crude oil, minerals and natural resources, wreaking havoc on the environment, blithely emitting unacceptable amounts of the carbon dioxide that causes global warming. China as "la fabrica del mundo" the factory of the world arouses fear and resentment, as more than 90 percent of Latin American manufacturing exports are threatened by Chinese competition. No wonder some 60 percent of all anti-dumping cases launched against China at the World Trade Organization were filed by Latin American countries. Latin America's perceptions of China are still largely shaped by international media. The Chinese government's soft-power Confucius Institutes, if managed well, could bring greater understanding of China. A Colombian woman I recently met said she is keen to learn the Chinese language but confesses she's more drawn to Tibetan Buddhism than the moral teachings of that ancient sage, Confucius. In predominantly Catholic countries, China as an atheist country does not go down very well.

Bonding China and Latin

America calls for a narrative that resonates. For a country of 1.3 billion people with a per capita GDP no higher than Colombia or Peru's, China has shared experiences and future hopes to tell to other emerging economies. Finding the right story will be crucial for soft power policy to succeed. Otherwise, the
game will be lost even before it begins.

Chinese soft power key to its economy. CSIS 9 (March 2009, Center Strategic & International Studies, Chinese Soft Power and Its Implications for the United States,
http://csis.org/files/media/csis/pubs/090305_mcgiffert_chinesesoftpower_web.pdf)

Aware of the benefits of a sophisticated soft-power portfolio, Chinese leaders are aiming to deepen relationships with all regions of the world, particularly the developing nations of Africa, the Americas, the Middle East, and Southeast Asia. Beijing uses a variety of tools to increase its influence in the developing world that include
economic incentives and military cooperation; however, traditional soft power has also become a growing piece of how China acquires its influence. Although the nature

of Chinas relationships with the regions explored in this volume is

largely economic , Beijing has also sought to strengthen these relationships by promoting regional economic integration and
security mechanisms, emphasizing the role of the United Nations, participating in humanitarian missions, providing concessionary loans and debt relief, increasing cultural and academic exchange programs and engaging local communities through skilled diplomats. There is a distinct style in Chinas approach to relationship building: it

practices an omni-directional friendship policy that emphasizes the importance of state sovereignty and noninterference with the objective of securing stable and sustainable access to resources and opening new export markets to fuel its economy .4 Differences in regional geopolitical dynamics, however, require Beijing to tailor its softpower strategy in each of the four regions it is active.

Chinese economic collapse causes WWIII. Plate 3 (June 30, 2003, Tom Plate - professor of Policy and Communication Studies, WHY NOT INVADE CHINA?,
http://asiamedia.ucla.edu/TomPlate2003/06302003.htm) But imagine

a China disintegrating- on its own, without neo-conservative or Central Intelligence Agency prompting, much less outright military invasion because the economy (against all predictions) suddenly collapses. That would knock Asia into chaos. A massive flood of refugees would head for Indonesia and other places with poor border controls, which dont want them and cant handle them; some in Japan might lick their lips at the prospect of World War II revisited and look to annex a slice of China. That would send Singapore and Malaysia- once occupied by Japan- into nervous breakdowns. Meanwhile, India might make a grab for Tibet, and Pakistan for Kashmir. Then you can say hello to World War III, Asia style.

Ext: US-China Soft Power = Zero Sum

US-Sino soft power is zero sum. Yi 10 (March 25, 2010, Xiaoxiong Yi- Associate Prof. of PoliSci & director of the China Institute @Marietta, Reinventing America's
smart power, Coshocton Tribune, l n) It is clear the

rise of China's soft power, at America's expense, is an important issue that needs to be

addressed. As Joseph Nye of Harvard University, who also invented the term "soft power" some 15 years ago, emphasized,

"In today's information age, success depends not only on whose army wins, but also on whose story wins.
Under the new conditions, a soft sell may prove more effective than a hard sell ... Power in a global information age, more than ever, will include a soft dimension of attraction as well as the hard dimensions of coercion and payment. Combining these dimensions effectively is called 'smart power.'" The

United States was a smart power in the past. Serious challenges from China now are reducing America's influence internationally. The United States has to wake up and
focus on the task of rediscovering how to be a smart power again.

Soft power is zero-sum- competition inevitable when changing balance of power Channel News Asia 5 (June 27, 2005,
http://www.channelnewsasia.com/stories/singaporelocalnews/print/154899/1/.html) China is a growing soft power, says Singapore's Deputy Prime Minister Tony Tan, referring to China's economic and cultural influence. Dr Tan noted that both

soft and hard power, which refers to military capability, had been regarded a monopoly of the United States. But analysts now argue that the soft power of the US may already have peaked as other players are learning to play the game, particularly China. Dr Tan was speaking at
the Eisenhower Fellowships conference in Singapore. Conferences like the Eisenhower Fellowships serve as a useful bridge to create a better understanding between the cultures of America and Asia, Dr Tan said. This is especially when Asia is growing ever more connected to the rest of the world. A common catch phrase in the arena of international affairs today is the use of "soft power" by countries to boost political and economic links and one common feature that is emerging among countries is the move towards negotiations to sign free trade agreements to expand their networks both bilaterally and multilaterally. Dr Tan said: "When

the term 'soft power' was introduced a decade and a half ago, China had little international leverage aside from its nuclear arsenal and huge army. "Today, China is an economic giant reshaping the landscape of world trade. China's growing soft power makes it increasingly difficult for the United States to maintain a hard
line against Chinese initiatives and interests." Dr Tan said this was evident in the cross-Atlantic dispute over European countries lifting an arms embargo against China. And Beijing is currently embarking on its most important public relations project - the 2008 Olympics - as a means to show the world what China can do. So Dr Tan's conclusion is that softer forms of power are becoming increasingly important. He said: "The and

question can be asked whether the US has lost its monopoly on hard soft power. " Between a status quo super power like the US and a rising power like China, there will inevitably be tension and competition. "While most military, technological and economic power remains
concentrated in American hands, we can say that the relative soft power positions of China and the US in Asia and in the world have undergone changes.

Soft Power between the US and China is zero- sum CSIS 9 (March 2009, Center Strategic & International Studies, Chinese Soft Power and Its Implications for the United States,
http://csis.org/files/media/csis/pubs/090305_mcgiffert_chinesesoftpower_web.pdf) They believe soft

power can secure a stable and peaceful international environment and facilitate the acceptance of China's rise internationally. It can also defend and advance Chinese interests: "China has to substantially increase its soft power in order to play an active role in international competition"31 The debate on soft

power in China now revolves around the question of what comes next: After China determines its core socialist value system, should China actively promote its values as an alternative to Western values? Can socialism with Chinese characteristics combined with capitalism serve as a development model for developing nations? There is also interest around the world in

the relationship between U.S. and Chinese soft power: Is the relationship zero-sum , so that an expected increase of U.S. soft power under President Barack Obama will result in a decline in Chinese soft-power appeal? Reactive
versus Proactive Soft Power The China Model The discourse on soft power has overlapped with the wider domestic debate on Chinas development strategy and the foreign policy debate of taoguangyanghui vs. yousuo zuowei. Where all three intersect is in the latest discussion on the so-called China development model: whether it could or should be exported; whether China should deliberately use its soft power to promote its influence; and how these efforts would affect U.S.-China relations. In 2004, Joshua Cooper Ramo published an article entitled *"Ihe Beijing Consensus" which put forward the theory that Chinas

model of development offered developing countries an alternative to the Washington Consensus.84

-- Econ Impact Extensions --

2NC: Turns US Econ

Chinese economic decline tanks the US economy Manning and Garrett 13. [Robert A., Senior Fellow in the Brent Scowcroft Center on International Stability, Banning,
Strategic Foresight Senior Fellow for Global Trends Strategic Foresight Initiative, Does Beijing Have a Strategy? Chinas Alternative Futures Atlantic Council -- March 19 -- http://www.acus.org/publication/does-beijing-have-strategy-chinas-alternative-futures]

The United States needs to avoid schadenfreude as China faces increasing difficulties in the future and recognize that US interests are best served by a successful, not failing, China, and that a successful China is more likely to eschew extreme nationalism in favor of bilateral and global cooperation with the United States. China experiencing a sharp economic decline and resulting political and social instability, would likely have a devastating effect on the global economy and on international stability and security. In short, hoping for or seeking to promote failure or a sharp decline in Chinas fortunes could lead to mutual assured economic destruction as well as to global governance gridlock in the face of
mounting global challenges threatening the prosperity and security of China, the United States and all other nations.

2NC: Laundry List

Strong Chinese growth key to solve Asian stability, North Korea, prolif, and terrorism. Krawitz 10. [Howard M., Visiting Senior Fellow @ NDU, former Chief of Staff, U.S. Army, Chinas trade opening and
implications for regional stability The Peoples Liberation Army and China in Transition National Defense University Press -http://www.scribd.com/doc/3099389/the-peoples-liberation-army-and-china-in-transition]

A strong services sector, and the millions of jobs it will create, would not only support a real middle class but also slow growth in Chinas chronically unemployed underclass, a worrisome source of destabilizing social pressure. China must place over 10 million new workers into the economy every year. It must also find jobs for an estimated 150 million unemployed migrants, a number expected to swell by at least 5 to 6 million a year. Again, domestic stability is the issue. Domestic stability in China benefits America. Comfortable, prosperous Chinese citizens are more likely to share
concerns similar to those Americans have and be more willing to cooperate on the range of issues relating to such concerns. For example, China

already shows increased interest in working with U.S. officials and private experts on environmental problems (for example, pollution, hazardous waste, and transportation), drug trafficking,
medicine, and public health. These are now issues of real concern for Chinese citizens in more prosperous areas of the country. They are also issues that transcend borders and have the potential to draw China into the international arena as a nation with a stake in making cooperation work. Dialogue on matters of mutual interest promotes communication, increased cooperation, and, ultimately, trust. A

wealthy, stable China can serve U.S. regional security interests . A China that risks tangible loss from aggressive and confrontational behavior should be less likely to favor precipitous action and conflict. It should be more likely to be interested in preserving regional peace and stability, more open to consulting with Pacific Rim neighbors, and more willing to cooperate on regional security issues, strategies, and disputes. Speaking from a vantage point of growing economic strength and military capability would give Beijing the respect, prestige, and diplomatic stature it craves, making it easier for China to see itself as a player whose opinion is given serious weight by peers. This could calm Chinese fears of being marginalized or contained, making it easier for China to find common cause with the United States, Japan, and others in the region in maintaining calm and promoting dialogue on Korean Peninsula security issues, combating international terrorism and piracy, and perhaps even becoming more involved in curbing the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction.

2NC: Taiwan Impact

Chinese economic downturn sparks Taiwan war. Lewis 10 (Dan, Research Director of Economic Research Council, The nightmare of a Chinese economic collapse World
Finance, http://www.worldfinance.com/news/home/finalbell/article117.html) It has been calculated that to keep

Chinas society stable ie to manage the transition from a rural to an urban society minimum growth rate is 7.2 percent. Anything less than that and unemployment will rise and the massive shift in population from the country to the cities becomes unsustainable. This is when real discontent with communist party rule becomes vocal and hard to
without devastating unemployment - the ignore. It doesnt end there. That will at best bring a global recession. The crucial point is that communist authoritarian states have at least had some success in keeping a lid on ethnic tensions so far. But when multi-ethnic communist countries fall apart from economic stress and the implosion of central power, history suggests that they dont become successful democracies overnight. Far from it. Theres

a very real chance that China might go the way of Yugoloslavia or the Soviet Union chaos, civil unrest and internecine war. In the very worst case scenario, a Chinese government might seek to maintain national cohesion by going to war with Taiwan whom America is pledged to defend.

Taiwan war causes extinction. Straits Times 00 (6-25, Lexis, No one gains in war over Taiwan)
THE DOOMSDAY SCENARIO THE high-intensity scenario postulates a cross-strait war escalating into a full-scale war between the US and China. If Washington were to conclude that splitting China would better serve its national interests, then a full-scale war becomes unavoidable. Conflict on such a scale would embroil other countries far and near and -- horror of horrors -- raise the possibility of a nuclear war. Beijing has
already told the US and Japan privately that it considers any country providing bases and logistics support to any US forces attacking China as belligerent parties open to its retaliation. In the region, this means South Korea, Japan, the Philippines and, to a lesser extent, Singapore. If China were to retaliate, east

Asia will be set on fire. And the conflagration may not end there as

opportunistic powers elsewhere may try to overturn the existing world order. With the US distracted, Russia may seek to

redefine Europe's political landscape. The balance of power in the Middle East may be similarly upset by the likes of Iraq. In south Asia, hostilities between India and Pakistan, each armed with its own nuclear arsenal, could enter a new and dangerous phase. Will a full-scale Sino-US war lead to a nuclear war? According to General Matthew Ridgeway,
commander of the US Eighth Army which fought against the Chinese in the Korean War, the US had at the time thought of using nuclear weapons against China to save the US from military defeat. In his book The Korean War, a personal account of the military and political aspects of the conflict and its implications on future US foreign policy, Gen Ridgeway said that US was confronted with two choices in Korea -- truce or a broadened war, which could have led to the use of nuclear weapons. If the US had to resort to nuclear weaponry to defeat China long before the latter acquired a similar capability, there

is little hope of winning a

war against China 50 years later, short of using nuclear weapons. The US estimates that China possesses about
20 nuclear warheads that can destroy major American cities. Beijing also seems prepared to go for the nuclear option. A Chinese military officer disclosed recently that Beijing was considering a review of its "non first use" principle regarding nuclear weapons. Major-General Pan Zhangqiang, president of the military-funded Institute for Strategic Studies, told a gathering at the Woodrow Wilson International Centre for Scholars in Washington that although the government still abided by that principle, there were strong pressures from the military to drop it. He said military leaders considered the use of nuclear weapons mandatory if the country risked dismemberment as a result of foreign intervention. Gen Ridgeway said that should

that come to pass, we would see the destruction of civilisation. There would be no victors in such a war. While the prospect of a nuclear Armaggedon over Taiwan might seem inconceivable, it cannot be ruled out entirely, for China puts
sovereignty above everything else.

-- Other Impacts --

2NC: Warming Impact

Chinese soft power solves warming spurs modeling. CSIS 9 (March, Jesse Kaplan and Julianne Smith, Chinese Soft Power and its Implications for the United States: competition and
cooperation in the developing world http: csis.org files media csis pubs 090305_mcgiffert_chinesesoftpower_web.pdf)
When it comes to China and combating climate change, everyone, from Al Gore to T. Boone Pickens, recites a common yet troubling narrative: with global temperatures rising, the need for a peak in global greenhouse gas emissions is incompatible with continued Chinese economic growth. The Peoples R epublic of China, which recently became the world leader in carbon emissions, has completely ignored environmental considerations. Kinder critics explain that renewable energy is hopelessly expensive for developing countries. Conspiracy theorists grumble that China is determined to destroy the Pax Americana with emissions, if not with military and economic might. All, or at least most,

Chinese obstructionism is a primary obstacle to global efforts to combat climate change. If only the Chinese would do something, the thinking goes, perhaps the United States would have an incentive to act as well. This narrative is familiar. It is also almost entirely wrong. To be sure, the climate picture is alarming.
agree that Experts agree that to limit global warming to a moderately safe level of two degrees Celsius above the preindustrial norm, global carbon emissions will need to peak in the next decade and then be more than halved by 2050. Practically, this means that developed countries must have zero-carbon economies by mid-century and developing countries must followe suit a few decades later. In quantifiable terms, the avoidable costs of climate change inaction range between 5 and 20 percent of global gross domestic product (GDP) approximately the cost of both world wars and the Great Depression combined. The environmental, human development, and quality-of-life costs are far greater. Even before it passed the United States as the worlds largest emitter of carbon dioxide, China figured prominently in climate cha nge discussions. The International Energy Agency has

if China were to do nothing to curb emissions, it would emit more carbon dioxide during the next 25 years than the worlds 26 richest counties combined. Almost every week a coal-fired and highly
projected that polluting power plant large enough to service all of San Diego or Dallas opens somewhere in China, and the Chinese build enough such plants annually to light the entire United Kingdom. The Chinese coal sector alone produces upward of 16 percent of global carbon emissions. These numbers are sobering. In contrast with the common narrative,

The Chinese widely recognize that the threat of climate change is real, and they have taken significant steps in recent years to counter that threat . To start, China has a National Climate Change Plan, something about which U.S. environmentalists can only dream, and China has mustered a wide array of legislative, economic, and governmental instruments to foster shifts to more sustainable industrial activity. China has invested heavily in renewable energy and has more stringent efficiency standards for its automobiles than
however, they are not sobering only to Western eyes. does the United States. In his annual address in 2007, Premier Wen Jiabao made 48 references to environment, pollution or environmental protection, and party

However, significant gaps between well-intentioned rhetoric and concrete action remain. In addition, Chinese efforts to stem emissions are sometimes contradictory
leadership has pursued efforts at structural reform to ensure compliance with environmental regulations. and not always effective. The country is nevertheless of the correct path, and its recalcitrance about addressing climate change is, if not a complete myth, not an obstacle to engagement either. Villainizing China, while convenient, distorts reality and distracts from U.S. inaction.

The impact is extinction. Deibel 7 (Terry L. Deibel, professor of IR at National War College, Foreign Affairs Strategy, Conclusion: American Foreign
Affairs Strategy Today Anthropogenic caused by CO2) Finally, there

is one major existential threat to American security (as well as prosperity) of a nonviolent nature, which, It is the threat of global warming to the stability of the climate upon which all earthly life depends. Scientists worldwide have been observing the gathering of this threat for three decades now, and what was once a mere possibility has passed through probability to near certainty. Indeed not one of more than 900 articles on climate change published in refereed scientific journals from 1993 to 2003 doubted that anthropogenic warming is occurring. In legitimate scientific circles, writes Elizabeth Kolbert, it is virtually impossible to find evidence of disagreement over the fundamentals of global warming. Evidence from a vast international scientific monitoring effort accumulates almost weekly, as this sample of newspaper reports shows: an international panel predicts brutal droughts, floods and violent storms across the planet over the next century; climate change could literally alter ocean currents, wipe away huge
though far in the future, demands urgent action.
portions of Alpine Snowcaps and aid the spread of cholera and malaria; glaciers in the Antarctic and in Greenland are melti ng much faster than expected, andworldwide, plants are blooming several days earlier than a decade ago; rising sea temperatures have been accompanied by a significant global increase in the most destructive hurricanes; NASA scientists have concluded from direct temperature measurements that 2005 was the hottest year on record, with 1998 a close second; Earths warming climate is estimated to contribute to more than 150,000 deaths and 5 million illnesses each year as disease spreads; widesp read bleaching from Texas to Trinidadkilled broad swaths of corals due to a 2-degree rise in sea temperatures. The world is slowly disintegrating, concluded Inuit hunter Noah Metuq, who lives 30 miles from the Arctic Circle. They call it climate changebut we just call it breaking up. From the founding of the first cities some 6,000 years ago until the beginning of the industrial revolution, carbo n

dioxide levels in the atmosphere remained relatively constant at about 280 parts per million (ppm). At present they are accelerating toward 400 ppm, and by 2050 they will reach 500 ppm, about double pre-industrial levels. Unfortunately, atmospheric CO2 lasts about a century, so there is no way immediately to reduce levels, only to slow their increase, we are thus in for significant global warming; the only debate is how much and how serous the effects will be. As the newspaper stories quoted above show, we are

and animals, species extinction, and threatened inundation of low-lying countries like the Pacific nation of Kiribati and the Netherlands
already experiencing the effects of 1-2 degree warming in more violent storms, spread of disease, mass die offs of plants

at a warming of 5 degrees or less the Greenland and West Antarctic ice sheets could disintegrate, leading to a sea level of rise of 20 feet that would cover North Carolinas outer banks, swamp the southern third of Florida, and inundate Manhattan up to the middle of Greenwich Village.

Another catastrophic effect would be the collapse of the Atlantic thermohaline circulation that
keeps the winter weather in Europe far warmer than its latitude would otherwise allow. Economist William Cline once estimated the damage to the United States alone from moderate levels of warming at 1-6 percent of GDP annually; severe warming could cost 1326 percent of GDP. But the

most frightening scenario is runaway greenhouse warming, based on positive feedback from the buildup of water vapor in the atmosphere that is both caused by and causes hotter surface temperatures. Past ice age transitions, associated with only 5-10 degree changes in average global
temperatures, took place in just decades, even though no one was then pouring ever-increasing amounts of carbon into the atmosphere. Faced with this specter, the best one can conclude is that humankinds continuing enhancement of the natural greenhouse effect is akin to playing Russian roulette with the earths climate and humanitys life support system. At worst, says physics professor Marty Hoffert of New Y ork University, were

just going to burn everything up; were going to het the atmosphere to the temperature it was in the Cretaceous when there were crocodiles at the poles, and then everything will collapse. During the Cold War, astronomer Carl Sagan
popularized a theory of nuclear winter to describe how a thermonuclear war between the Untied States and the Soviet Union would not only destroy both countries but possible end life on this planet. Global

warming is the post-Cold War eras equivalent of nuclear winter at least as serious and considerably better supported scientifically. Over the long run it puts dangers form terrorism and traditional military challenges to shame . It is a threat not only to the security and prosperity to the United States, but potentially to the continued existence of life on this planet.

Ext: Soft Power Solves Warming

Chinese soft power key to emissions reductions solves warming. Kejin 10 (May 29, 2010, Zhao Kejin - former deputy head of the Institute of Japan Studies, affiliated to the Chinese Academy of
Social Sciences, Saving The Earth With Soft Power, l n) Compared with 1990 levels, China's carbon intensity per unit GDP dropped 46 percent in 2005. The government

has now pledged to reduce carbon intensity per unit GDP by 40-45 percent from the 2005 level by 2020, and increase the generation of renewable energy, nuclear energy and other non-fossil energy to about 15 percent. This shows China's determination to cut its carbon emission, and the great emphasis it lays on "soft war". This "soft power" is evident
in abundance at the Shanghai World Expo. The foreign media have hailed it for its grandeur as much as for its theme, "Better City, Better Life". And the theme has everything to do with environmental protection. Some experts believe the Expo is

kind of power, or soft power, which is totally different from that which comes out of the barrel of a gun.

2NC: Asian Stability Impact

Chinas international image key to Asian Stability China Daily 5 (Jan 21, 2005, China Plays a More Active Role, http: www.china.org.cn english international 118482.htm)
Besides, to remove the international community's mistrust and misgivings towards itself, China

has taken as an important diplomatic task to actively integrate itself into the world's mechanisms and frameworks instead of passive explanations. China's dynamic economic momentum and bright prospects have served as an effective instrument in raising its international image. Due to many years of rapid economic growth, China has now become one of the world's key growth engines. Its economic development is related closely with the interests of other countries nowadays. The charm of its enormous market potential has made the "China threat" fallacy increasingly unpopular. Facts have proven the Chinese new leadership's pragmatic diplomatic approach and the country's increasing economic temptation have helped solve issues and disputes with neighbours. Meanwhile, China also exhibited its diplomatic ideas and skills through international organizations and conferences. At the informal
summit of the Asia-Pacific Economic Co-operation late last year, China drew more spotlight than any other country with the enormous opportunities its economy provided for all participants.

Extinction Beg 99 (May 20, 1999, Mirza Aslam Beg - General, Nuclearization of South Asia: Rational Diffusion of Holocaust,
http://www.friends.org.pk/Beg/nuclearization%20of%20south%20asia.htm) Andrei Sakharov also reiterated: A very large nuclear war would be a calamity of indescribable proportions and absolutely unpredictable consequences, with the uncertainties tending towards the worst.... all-out

nuclear war would mean the destruction of contemporary civilization, throw man back centuries, cause the death of hundreds of millions or billions of
people, and with a certain degree of probability, would cause man to be destroyed as a biological species.2 (continue) Deterrence worked in the case of two super powers during the Cold War as has been dramatically brought to light by Gorbachev. Pleading for one standard, Jaswant Singh maintains: Indias nuclear policy remains firmly committed to a basic tenet, that the countrys national security in a world of nuclear proliferation lies either in global disarmament or in exercise of the principle of equal and legitimate security for all.31 He believes disarmament to be unrealistic politics, and discards the apprehensions with respect to India becoming nuclear. If the permanent fives possession of nuclear weapons increases security, he says, why would Indias possession of nuclear weapons be dangerous?32 To come at par with the five nuclear nations, is the driving motive. If the permanent five continue to employ nuclear weapons, as an international currency of force and power, why should India voluntarily devalue its own state power and national security?33 He therefore poses a fundamental question: If deterrence works in the West as it so obviously appears to, since western nations insist on continuing to possess nuclear weapons - by what reasoning will it not work for India.34 Dr. Bowen, questions the efficiency of seductive super power model, which in his view, is wrong. Such a logic, he said, would be persuasive if several things were always true; if leaders were always logical; and of perception of the situation in the real world were always reasonably accurate. After having gone through it, my take on the Cold War is that the super powers get through it with a consistent streak of luck as much as through the careful and wise decisions of national leaders. It was not western superiority that was decisive in preserving peace but prolonged luck.35 The second argument is that US and USSR did not share common geography as the South Asian rivals do. The super powers shared a buffer -thousands of miles of Ocean between them - but this is not the case with South Asia. Even with the fastest ballistic missiles, he said, the time from launch to impact was 30 minutes. A half-hour may not be much time, but it is generally enough to pause to assess a warning that something drastic is about to happen, to determine if the warning was a false one, or simply to give a chance for cooler heads to prevail.36 In the case of South Asia, it would be a tenth of the time the super powers had - 30 minutes isnt much, but its a lot better than three minutes. It is on this basis that progress on weaponization, on inducting weapons into the armed forces, and deployment of these nuclear forces should stop. Each step up the ladder, each additional rung, places the region closer to the point where some accident or miscalculation could lead to nothing but disaster. The nuclear genie cannot be put back in the bottle - but the genie need not be allowed to dictate how weapons and missiles go from the drawing board to the battle field.37 One can thus see the futility of non-first-use of nuclear weapons proposition put forward by India, as the geography makes it utterly impossible to determine as to who was the trigger happy, within a span of three minutes. The

conflict-ridden South Asia has become all the more vulnerable after its nuclearization as historical animosities, may escalate into nuclear confrontation with horrendous

consequences. Nuclearization own, where

is very often a precursor of nuclear competition, which exerts a dynamics of its irrational fears, cloud rational thinking and misperceptions guide judgments. By altering the non-weaponised nuclear character of South Asia, India has triggered a snow-ball impact on the continent of Asia, and even beyond. Iran, may feel threatened and may opt to become nuclear. The nuclear fear waves may touch the shores of South East Asian countries, who would legitimately be concerned about their security and maintaining the pace of their economic development. Similarly, with the
prospect of Indian nuclear submarine, freely playing in the Indian Ocean - reportedly in the making in collaboration with Russia -

Australia and Japan would have reasons to worry about and choose options to meet the threat.

***AFF: COUNTERPLAN***

Perm Solvency
The US and China can work together in Latin America solves the link. Miller 9. [Stephanie, consultant on U.S.-Latin America relations and was formerly the Research Associate for the Americas
Project at the Center, "Cooperating with China in Latin America" Center for American Progress -- June 3 -www.americanprogress.org/issues/security/news/2009/06/03/6209/cooperating-with-china-in-latin-america/] Thus, the

United States and China, as important investors in the region, could find ways to work together on helping Latin American and Caribbean governments tackle crime and insecurity. And the United States should seek Chinas cooperation in the various institutions that comprise the Inter-American systema system that makes a fundamental commitment to democracy and human rights. The
United States could use these multilateral forums to ask China to uphold its policy paper commitments to promote a more equitable economic world order, as well as democracy in the international system.

US > China
US investment key diversification key to Latin American competitiveness. Cerna 11. [Michael, staff @ CRC, "China's growing presence in Latin America: Implications for US and Chinese presence in the
region" China Research Center -- Vol 10 No 1 -- www.chinacenter.net/chinas-growing-presence-in-latin-america-implications-for-u-sand-chinese-presence-in-the-region/]

While Chinas commodity-based trade structure is currently lucrative, it does not encourage diversification of Latin Americas exports into more value-added goods, manufactured products, and modern services. Economic relations are dependent on often unstable commodity market demands. U.S. investment in the region is far more diversified and spans a range of value-added activities,
including manufacturing, finance, telecom, retail and other services. Going back to a comparison with the United States, while China accounts for 6.7% of the regions total exports, the United States continues to be the largest buyer, with a 40% share. Latin

Americas exports to the U.S. are more diversified and remain fairly balanced so it is better suited to survive a possible commodity cut-off in Latin America. Roughly 24% of the regions exports are raw materials, another 12% consists of resource-based goods and 60% is manufactured products. Karen Poniachik of Latin Trade also sees enormous risks for the region: The steep overvaluation of the regions currenciesdue in part to the flood of investment flows and export proceedsis eroding the competitiveness of its higher-value added goods and services. This could in turn fuel its already high level of overdependence on commodities.

Cant Solve Energy Affs

China energy investment in Latin America fails too focused on resource extraction, doesnt promote growth, jacks the environment. Myers 11. [Margaret, director of the China and Latin America program at the Inter-American Dialogue, "How is China changing
Latin America's Energy Sector" Inter-American Dialogue -- July 22 -- www.thedialogue.org/page.cfm?pageID=32&pubID=2710] A: Margaret Myers, director of the China and Latin America program at the Inter-American Dialogue: "China promotes a 'win-win strategy' when dealing with Latin America, promising mutually beneficial bilateral relationships. Upon first glance, its recent agreements with Ecuador and Venezuela appear mutually beneficial. Having spurned other creditors, Ecuador and Venezuela are increasingly reliant upon China for infusions of capital. China uses 'loans-for-oil' and other investment mechanisms to stake claims to the region's natural resources. Its domestic urbanization and industrialization efforts are highly dependent upon resource imports from across the globe. Barring rapid political transition in Ecuador or Venezuela, or a significant economic downturn in China, these loan agreements are likely to materialize, and to be used according to loan stipulations. But the extent to which they will benefit Ecuador and Venezuela is less certain. The

vast majority of China's investments in Latin America either directly or indirectly support resource extraction. They are intended to guarantee China's natural resource supply over the next decade. Countries like Chile, through sound macroeconomic policy and
effective governance over the extractive sector, have benefited greatly from China's resource-related investment. But in the absence of institutional controls and macroeconomic foresight, oil-tied

investments in Ecuador and Venezuela are unlikely to generate long-term, sustainable growth. Chinese funding may also have unexpected political or environmental impacts. Many worry that environmental degradation will accompany China-funded projects. Also, Chinese loans thus far have enabled Correa and Chvez to increase
spending on popular social and infrastructure projects, sustaining some degree of domestic political support. At present, few countries in Latin America would deny the immediate benefits of a renminbi infusion. Chinese investment in Latin America continues to promote growth, but long-term success will require strong institutions and responsible policy formulation. As Latin American diplomats in China have noted, recipients of Chinese investment must take measures to ensure that China's 'win-win' arrangements don't just mean China wins twice."

--- Mexico ---

China Backlash
Mexico says no China is viewed as an economic threat. Hearn 9. [Dr. Adrian, Senior Research Fellow at the University of Sydney, and Kiriyama Research Fellow at the University of San
Francisco Center for the Pacific Rim, "China's Relations with Mexico and Cuba: A Study of Contrasts" Pacific Rim Report - January -usf.usfca.edu/pac_rim/new/research/pacrimreport/pacrimreport52.html] China and Mexico: Playing an Uneven Field Over

the past decade the threats posed to Mexicos economy by China have become well known, owing primarily to intensifying competition from legal and illicit Chinese imports both domestically and into Mexicos primary export market, the United States. Chinese demand for energy resources has simultaneously forced the Mexican government to confront the socially unpopular and strategically uncertain prospect of privatizing the oil industry. The economic impasse
produced by this combination of pressures has provoked fears of an impending China threat across Mexicos industrial landscape.

Mexican apprehensions of an emerging China threat find historical precedence in the observations of
Vladimir Lenin in the early 20th century, Ral Prebisch in the 1950s, and Noam Chomsky since the 1980s: that Latin Americas pro spects for moving inwards from the periphery of the global market lie in less dependence on resource exports and more in attention to educational and technical advancement. Mexican leaders have been aware of this at least since the 1930s. In 1938, for instance, Lzaro Crdenas nationalized the oil industry under the PEMEX Corporation with the aim of boosting the states budget for soc ial programs, technical training, and industrial upgrading. Successive governments deepened this model of development, gradually moving Mexico toward import substitution and industrialization. The collapse of global commodity markets in the late 1970s and a chronically overvalued peso, however, led to a reconsideration of trade policies and the initiation of measures to privatize the economy. Mexicos rather abrupt adoption of neoliberal economic policy through the 1986 General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT) and the 1994 North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) brought a series of dilemmas, among which was the question of whether or not the oil sector would remain under the administrative control of the state. PEMEX ultimately survived the economic reforms associated with GATT and NAFTA and is today the countrys most significant economic resource still under national management. Confronted by a popular perception that industrial privatization has already gone too far, Felipe Caldern (and Vicente Fox before him) have thus far made only minor advances in opening the oil sector to private investment. These consist of limited projects to foreign (including Chinese) contractors, though not in the area of exploration. Until recently Mexico stood out as an industrialization success story, with over 85 percent of its exports made up of manufactured products such as textiles, household appliances, and automobile parts. During the early 1970s, when the foundations for these industrial advances were being laid, President Luis Echevarra developed cordial relations with the Chinese government, supporting its position on Taiwan and made Mexico Chinas closest trade partner in Latin America. But at this time China was also layin g the institutional foundations that would later underpin its transition to market-socialism, a transition whose enormous, low-cost commercial output has effectively undercut Mexicos industrial achievements. In 2002 China surpassed Mexicos position in the U.S. market, causing the loss of over 672,000 Mexican jobs across 12 industrial sectors. CEPAL (2004) reports that 2,500 of these jobs were lost from the maquiladora or export-processing sector alone as a result of the relocation of manufacturing operations to China. By 2003, Sony, NEC, VTech, and Kodak, together with 85 percent of shoe manufacturers in Mexico, closed their Mexican operations and moved to China (Domnguez et al. 2007:38-9). Further losses will likely result from the December 2007 expiration of Mexicos peace clause tariffs on imported Chinese shoes, textiles, and toys under World Trade Organization (WTO) guidelines. Mexicos inability to compete with China in industrial manufacturing has driven it to begin emulating the resource intensive strategies of other Latin American countries, increasing oil production to roughly 15 percent of total exports in 2005 (Dussel Peters 2007:19). Industry watchers claim that Mexican oil output could rival that of Saudi Arabia, but stress the need for investment to the tune of $20 billion per year to exploit existing fields and explore new discoveries such as the deepwater Noxal field in the Gulf of Mexico (Reuters 2004, Rueda 2005). Companies from China, the United States, and elsewhere are lining up to provide this investment, intensifying the debate over whether the oil and electricity sectors should be privatized in order to boost productivity (Hogenboom 2007:11). Adding to the bilateral tension, Mexico is Chinas largest Latin American export marke t: of the $15 billion of Sino-Mexican bilateral trade reported for 2007, $11.7 billion was made up of Chinese imports to Mexico (Oppenheimer 2008). One report calc ulates that for every dollar worth of goods Mexico exports to China it imports $31 worth of Chinese goods (McKinley 2005). Furthermore, illegal Chinese imports (particularly apparel) are thought to account for close to 60 percent of the Mexican retail market, driving industry workers to mount periodic street protests outside the Chinese embassy and the national Economics Secretariat in Mexico City (CANAINTEX 2006, Sourcemex 2003). According to a 2005 national poll, 52 percent of Mexicans

identify China as a source of unfair competition (cited in Domnguez et al. 2006:12), and in the words of Irma Gmez Cavazos, Assistant Minister for Economic Relations and International Co-operation in
the Mexican Ministry of Foreign Affairs, the

vision of China as a threat to the Mexican economy is

getting stronger every day (Gmez Cavazos 2005). Mexican suspicions of Chinese imports are compounded by concerns about their safety. In 2007 Chinese-manufactured toothpaste containing potentially lethal diethylene glycol, a cheap substitute for glycerine, was recalled from shelves worldwide. The same ingredient was included in Chinese-made cough medicine, which killed 100 people in Panama (French 2007). Other defective Chinese products to reach Latin America include disintegrating automobile tires, contaminated pet food, and seafood containing high levels of antibiotics to prevent infections from the industrial waste of Chinas Eastern shores. The Mexican media has made much of these problems, printing a broad selection of national and foreign-authored reports of defective imported products. In June 2007, for instance, the Mexican newspaper Mural reprinted a story that concludes, There was a time when the words made

in China evoked an immediate perception of bad quality. These days many North Americans and Europeans
perceive danger (Martin 2007). Chinese media has responded by accusing commercial competitors in western countries of overreporting such incidents to fuel misguided perceptions of a China threat (French 2007). Motivated by the damage that this emerging culture of fear could inflict on bilateral economic and political relations, both governments have begun to explore potential pathways toward a more balanced partnership. The following sections outline some of the economic and cultural aspects of these efforts.

Mexico says no to China bad relations. McKinley 5. [James, reporter, "Mexico builds trade ties with China" New York Times -- September 13 -www.nytimes.com/2005/09/13/international/americas/13mexico.html] But underneath

these shows of cooperation lies an ugly economic street fight over the United States companies have battered Mexico's manufacturers and farmers in recent years, and many here see China threatening to replace Mexico as the main supplier of light manufactured goods. Last year, China knocked Mexico out of the No. 2 spot on the list of importers to the United States. And Mexico itself is flooded with Chinese products, both legal and contraband, from chili peppers to blue jeans to
market, analysts say. Chinese electronics. Last year, Mexico imported $31 in goods from China for every dollar's worth it sent there, according to trade experts here, and that does not include the thriving market in smuggled Chinese goods. " The

real relationship between the

People's Republic of China and Mexico is very tense ," said Enrique Dussel Peters, an expert on MexicanChinese trade at the Autonomous University of Mexico. "This ratio of 31 to 1, which is only going to grow in the short run, is not only a social problem but could become a political problem."

Mexico will say no prefers the US. Painter 8. [James, BBC Latin America analyst, "China deepens Latin American ties" BBC News -news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/americas/7737554.stm] However, for

Mexico, Latin America's third Apec member, the relative importance of Asia-Pacific remains low (about 3% of its exports) because of Mexico's close ties with the US economy . And the trade that does exist is very much in China's favour. In 2007 Mexico ran a $28bn trade deficit with China. "For every $30 of Chinese goods that Mexico imports, Mexico only exports $1 of Mexican goods to China," says Mr Erikson.

China Cant Solve

Mexican Energy is offlimits to China. McKinley 5. [James, reporter, "Mexico builds trade ties with China" New York Times -- September 13 -www.nytimes.com/2005/09/13/international/americas/13mexico.html] Mr. Hu's

visit seems part of a broader effort to secure future sources of oil, iron ore, aluminum, timber and other commodities throughout Latin America and Canada, despite the United States' longtime
hegemony in the region. Under his watch, China has sewn up deals for Chinese companies to develop oil fields and mines and to purchase commodities in Brazil, Venezuela, Chile, Cuba, Bolivia and Argentina. Mexico

is different. The Constitution bans foreign investment in Petrleos Mexicanos, the state-owned oil monopoly, and the country lacks large reserves of iron and bauxite, analysts say. Julian Ventura, the Mexican director general for Asian affairs, said oil exploration did not even come up Monday. And the mining
agreement is only a framework for future deals, not a binding contract, he said.

--- Venezuela ---

China Backlash
Chinese aid causes backlash seen as swindling. Romero and Barrionuevo 9. [Simon, Brazil bureau chief, Alexei, journalist, "Deals help China expand sway in Latin
America" New York Times -- April 15 -- www.nytimes.com/2009/04/16/world/16chinaloan.html?_r=0] Mr. Chvezs government contends the Chinese aid differs from other multilateral loans because it comes without strings attached, like scrutiny of internal finances. But the

Chinese fund has generated criticism among his opponents, who view it as an affront to Venezuelas sovereignty. The fund is a swindle to the nation, said Luis Daz, a lawmaker who claims that China locked in low prices for the oil Venezuela is using as repayment.

Cant Solve Oil

China cant solve Venezuelan oil no expertise or resources for crude oil. Dominguez 6. *Jorge, Professor @ Harvards Weatherhead Center for International Affairs, "China's Relations With Latin
America: Shared Gains, Asymmetric Hopes" Inter-American Dialogue Working Paper -- June -www.thedialogue.org/PublicationFiles/china.pdf]

There are also technical difficulties . Most of Venezuelan oil reserves are heavy crudes, which is low-grade sulfur-rich oil. Much of the worlds refining capacity, especially in China, cannot easily generate gasoline and heating oil from such petroleum.71 Building or upgrading refineries suitable for refining heavy crude in China would take time and be very expensive. Most existing refineries in China are small and away from southern coastal areas where demand is highest. PDVSA has invested in refineries appropriate for such heavy crudes in Venezuela and, through its CITGO subsidiary
(purchased in 1986), in the United States.72 Chvez has voiced an interest in selling CITGO, among others to the Chinese National Offshore Oil Company; the United States vetoed this deal. Given the petroleum market, however, PDVSA could find other buyers; Chvezs motivation may be to free PDVSA from having to provide audited annual financial statements to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, enabling PDVSA to operate with greater secrecy.73 Shipping petroleum to China, no matter where it is refined, moreover, is expensive. Transportation

costs are high to China, but they are low to the United States. It takes forty days for Venezuelan petroleum to reach China (seven days to reach the United States) because oil supertankers are too large to transit the Panama canal. Chinas main comparative advantage is its possible political commitment.

Chinas oil deals force dependency guts the industry/economy. Arsenault 13. [Chris, Web Producer, "Venezuela looks to China for economic boost" Al Jazeera -- March 12 -www.aljazeera.com/indepth/features/2013/03/201331271053389351.html]
While Chinas business deals with South America are welcomed by many, including politicians and young bus inessmen like Sanchez, some experts

worry the manufacturing powerhouse is repeating old problems faced by Latin America, allowing countries to boost their economies purely through primary commodity exports. Loans to Venezuela backed by the Chinese state and its development banks are being repaid in oil, directly from the spigot, rather than cash or government bonds. Current oil deals are creating a fundamentally unsustainable cycle of indebtedness and dependency, according to the University of Miami
study. Since 2008, state-backed China Development Bank has agreed to lend Venezuela $46.5bn, according to a report from Tufts University. More than 90 percent of this debt is backed by sales contracts for crude. And the government is running up debt despite high oil prices. With international lenders demanding high interest rates on Venezuelan government debt, and the Chavez government criticising the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and World Bank for their demands of privitisation and austerity, turning to China makes sense, according to some observers. Venezuela has a policy goal of trying to limit its exposure to the international debt market, Mark Jones, Latin America expert at the Baker Institu te for Public Policy, a thinktank specialising in the energy industry, told Al Jazeera. For China, ideology has very little to do with it; they are investing for strategic reasons - to acquire natural resources. Ideology, for Venezuela, is crucial. Carlos Andres Perez, a former Venezuelan president, once slammed the IMF for practicing economic totalitarianism which kills not with bullets but with famines. But its

unclear whether deals from totalitarian China, especially if they are backed with black gold, will be any better for Venezuelas long-term prospects. My children and grandchildren will have to pay that debt, Sanchez said, wondering if the billions in loansfor-oil deals could be a double-edged sword .

***AFF: NET BENEFIT***

--- Defense ---

CP Doesnt Solve Soft Power

Counterplan cant solve soft power aid not enough, other factors overwhelm. Nye 13. [Joseph, American political scientist and former Dean of the John F. Kennedy School of Government at Harvard
University, "What China and Russia Don't Get About Soft Power" Foreign Policy -- April 29 -www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2013/04/29/what_china_and_russia_don_t_get_about_soft_power?page=full] In his new book, China Goes Global, George Washington University's David Shambaugh shows how China

has spent billions of dollars on a charm offensive to increase its soft power. Chinese aid programs to Africa and Latin America are not limited by the institutional or human rights concerns that constrain Western aid. The Chinese style emphasizes high-profile gestures. But for all its efforts, China has earned a limited return on its investment . Polls show that opinions of China's influence are positive in much of Africa and Latin America, but predominantly negative in the United States, Europe, as well as India, Japan and South Korea. Even China's soft-power triumphs, such as the 2008 Beijing Olympics, have quickly turned stale. Not long after the last international athletes had departed, China's domestic crackdown on human rights activists undercut its soft power gains. Again in 2009, the Shanghai Expo was a great success, but it was followed by the jailing of
Nobel Peace Laureate Liu Xiaobo and screens were dominated by scenes of an empty chair at the Oslo ceremonies. Putin might likewise count on a soft power boost from the Sochi Olympics, but if he continues to repress dissent, he, too, is likely to step on his own message. China and Russia make

the mistake of thinking that government is the main instrument of soft power. In today's world, information is not scarce but attention is, and attention depends on credibility. Government propaganda is rarely credible. The best propaganda is not
propaganda. For all the efforts to turn Xinhua and China Central Television into competitors to CNN and the BBC, there is little international audience for brittle propaganda. As the Economist noted about China, "the party has

not bought into Mr. Nye's view that soft power springs largely from individuals, the private sector, and civil society. So the government has taken to promoting ancient cultural icons whom it thinks might have global appeal." But soft power doesn't work that way. As Pang Zhongying of Renmin University put it, it highlights "a poverty of thought" among Chinese leaders.

Chinese soft power fails in Latin America. Ellis 11. [R. Evan, Assistant Professor of National Security Studies in the Center for Hemispheric Defense Studies at the National
Defense University, "Chinese Soft Power in Latin America: A Case Study" Joint Force Quarterly -- Issue 60 -www.ndu.edu/press/lib/images/jfq-60/JFQ60_85-91_Ellis.pdf]

Limits to Chinese Soft Power The growth and exercise of soft power by the Peoples Republic of China have limits that are important to recognize. As with the sources of Chinese soft power, those limits are not the same as the limits to U.S. soft power. Limits to Chinese soft power in Latin America principally arise from the significant gap between the two cultures, the associated difficulty in learning each others culture and language, a lack of understanding of each side by the other, and a pervasive sense of mistrust of the Chinese within Latin America generally. The cultural gap between China and Latin America touches upon many areas, from differing consumer preferences limiting the appeal of Latin American exports such as coffee and beef, to different attitudes toward authority in business and administrative dealings, which contribute to labor problems and other difficulties where the PRC has operated in Latin America. One of the most significant barriers between the PRC and Latin America is language. Whereas a relatively significant portion of Latin Americans have some ability in
English, very few speak or read Chinese, and even fewer Chinese can communicate in Spanish, although the number is growing.16 Although Chinese-language programs are proliferating in Latin America,

the difficulty of and time required for learning Mandarin and the Chinese character set are a powerful impediment to the growth of ties between the two cultures. Compounding the language barrier is a relative lack of Chinese knowledge regarding Latin

America. Apart from major governmental institutessuch as the China Academy of Social Sciences, which currently has the worlds largest Latin America studies programand truly multinational Chinese corporationssuch as Hong Kongbased Hutchison Whampoa, China Shipping, China Overseas Shipping, Huawei, and ZTEthe general knowledge of the region among Chinese businesspeople and government functionaries is limited, restricting the ability of the PRC to develop broad and sophisticated programs to advance its objectives in the region. Perhaps most importantly, despite the best

Chinese businesspeople and politicians to reach out to Latin America, they are too frequently perceived as not one of usa reality Such distance often translates into a persistent mistrust, even where both sides perceive benefits from cooperation. Latin American businesspeople commonly express misgivings, suggesting that the Chinese are aggressive and manipulative in business dealings, or conceal hidden agendas
efforts of reflected even in Chinese communities, which often remain only partly integrated, despite deep historical roots in many Latin American cities such as Lima and Guayaquil. behind their expressions of friendship and goodwill. 757575

No Link: Not Zero Sum

US investment inevitable engagement not zero sum. Dumbaugh et al 5. [Kerry, specialist in Asian Affairs, Mark Sullivan, Specialist in Latin American affairs, "China's growing
interest in Latin America" CRS Report for Congress -- April 20 -- www.au.af.mil/AU/AWC/AWCGATE/crs/rs22119.pdf] Other observers contend that Chinese

activity in Latin America is one of relatively benign expansion, confined inroads China has made into the region are marginal compared with longstanding U.S. economic linkages, and they see evidence that Chinese officials have been restrained in their Latin American contacts.18 They point out that U.S. trade and investment in Latin America dwarfs that of Chinas involvement in the region. (U.S. imports from Latin America
to seeking out trade and investment opportunities.17 They say that the amounted to $255 billion in 2004, while U.S. cumulative direct investment in Latin America in 2003 amounted to some $304 billion.19) Morever, observers contend that the

future growth potential of Chinese investment and trade will always be constrained by the economic advantages conferred by U.S. geographic proximity to Latin America. Furthermore, they indicate that migration patterns to the United States from Central and South American countries have given the United States greater cultural ties and longerterm economic importance to the region than China could ever have. Adherents of this view maintain
that the United States should avoid overreacting to Chinas economic initiatives in Latin America. They assert that Chinas emerging presence in the region is not a threat to the United Sates, but is consistent with the longstanding U.S. policy of integrating China into the world system.20

Latin American investment isnt zero sum. Cerna 11. [Michael, staff @ CRC, "China's growing presence in Latin America: Implications for US and Chinese presence in the
region" China Research Center -- Vol 10 No 1 -- www.chinacenter.net/chinas-growing-presence-in-latin-america-implications-for-u-sand-chinese-presence-in-the-region/]

With both the U.S. and China making gains in the region in different sectors, there is seemingly room for each side to grow; which implies that, in fact, trade with Latin America is not a zero-sum game. China presents an alternative to the United States, but that is not necessarily a bad thing. The U.S. is much more diversified than China at the moment and therefore does not need to enter into direct competition . However, as China responds to calls from Brazil and diversifies its investments, there is increasing worry
that China is going to outmatch U.S. trade in the region. These fears may be economically based, but there are potentially harmful political consequences primarily, providing Latin America with a quasi-world power as an alternative to the U.S. Since the Monroe Doctrine, Latin America has been considered a secure sphere of influence China presents a less democratic alternative to U.S. influence presents a major problem.

for the U.S. The fact that

No Impact: LA Not Key to China Econ

Chinas economy not dependent on Latin America. Dominguez 6. *Jorge, Professor @ Harvards Weatherhead Center for International Affairs, "China's Relations With Latin
America: Shared Gains, Asymmetric Hopes" Inter-American Dialogue Working Paper -- June -www.thedialogue.org/PublicationFiles/china.pdf] Yet, if the gains are shared, the

hopes for further gains are asymmetrical and the relative leverage to shape the future distribution of gains is uneven as well. China has disproportionate leverage over Latin America in trade negotiations because the latter depend much more on the former .
Moreover, Latin

America will most likely remain a minor player in the prospects for Chinas economic growth while China has already become a major factor for Latin Americas economic growth. The year 2004 was the best for Latin Americas gross domestic product growth since the East Asian

financial crisis of 1997. A major reason for Latin Americas growth in 2004 was Chinas demand for commodities, which lifted prices and output to set most Latin Americas economies back on a growth path.18 The asymmetry in both hopes and leverage is an issue for the future.

--- China Influence Bad --

China Bad: Hegemony

Close LA-China relations boxes out the US decks heg. Dominguez 6. *Jorge, Professor @ Harvards Weatherhead Center for International Affairs, "China's Relations With Latin
America: Shared Gains, Asymmetric Hopes" Inter-American Dialogue Working Paper -- June -www.thedialogue.org/PublicationFiles/china.pdf]

There is, of course, a delicate triangular problem. To the extent that China may assist Latin America to combat hegemonism, problems may develop in U.S.-Chinese relations. And, if Latin American states look at the world strategically from the perspective of self-interest, as Chinese academics claim, then Latin American officials mayin classic neorealist fashionseek Chinese support to provide a soft balance U.S. influence in Latin America. Chinese academics are acutely aware that the United States considers Latin America to be its backyard (houyuan). Jiang Shixue, a scholar at the CASS, has put it as follows: The rapid development of China-Latin America relations has not yet posed a security threat to the United States, but China is currently in the process of becoming a political competitor in Americas own backyard some Latin American countries may use China to challenge American hegemony .34 Jiang Shixue also avers that China and Latin America share interests in building a new economic order and opposing hegemonism. Xu Shicheng, also from the CASS, attributes left-wing election victories in Brazil, Venezuela, and Uruguay to Latin American anger at neoliberal economic policies and a desire to take a firmer stance against U.S. dominance in the region.35

Heg decline causes nuclear war. Arbatov 7. [Alexei, corresponding member of the Russian Academy of Sciences, member of the Editorial Board of Russia in
Global Affairs, Is a New Cold War Imminent, Russia in Global Affairs, No. 2, July-September 2007, http://eng.globalaffairs.ru/numbers/20/1130.html] However, the low probability of a new Cold War and the not in reality) cannot

collapse of American unipolarity (as a political doctrine, if be a cause for complacency. Multipolarity, existing objectively at various levels and interdependently, holds many difficulties and threats. For example, if the Russia-NATO confrontation persists, it can do much damage to both parties and international security. Or, alternatively, if Kosovo
secedes from Serbia, this may provoke similar processes in Abkhazia, South Ossetia and Transdniestria, and involve Russia in armed conflicts with Georgia and Moldova, two countries that are supported by NATO. Another flash point involves Ukraine. In the event of Kievs sudden admission into the North Atlantic Alliance (recently sanctioned by the U.S. Congress), such a move may divide Ukraine and provoke mass disorders there, thus making it difficult for Russia and the West to refrain from interfering. Meanwhile, U.S. plans to build a missile defense system in Central and Eastern Europe may cause Russia to withdraw from the INF Treaty and resume programs for producing intermediate-range missiles. Washington may respond by deploying similar missiles in Europe, which would dramatically increase the vulnerability of Russias strategic forces and their control and warning systems. This

could make the stage for nuclear confrontation even tenser. Other centers of power would immediately derive benefit from the growing Russia-West standoff, using it in their own interests. China would receive an opportunity to occupy even more advantageous positions in its economic and political relations with Russia, the U.S. and Japan, and would consolidate its influence in Central and South Asia and the Persian Gulf region. India, Pakistan, member countries of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations and some exalted regimes in Latin America would hardly miss their chance, either. A multipolar world that is not moving toward nuclear disarmament is a world of an expanding Nuclear Club. While Russia and the West continue to argue with each other, states that are capable of developing nuclear weapons of their own will jump at the opportunity. The probability of nuclear weapons being

used in a regional conflict will increase significantly . International Islamic extremism and terrorism will increase dramatically; this threat represents the reverse side of globalization. The situation in Afghanistan, Central Asia, the Middle East, and North and East Africa will further destabilize. The wave of militant separatism, trans-border crime and terrorism will also infiltrate Western Europe, Russia, the U.S., and other countries. The surviving disarmament treaties (the Non-Proliferation Treaty, the Conventional Armed Forces in Europe Treaty, and the Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty) will collapse. In a worst-case scenario, there is the chance that an adventuresome
regime will initiate a missile launch against territories or space satellites of one or several great powers with a view to triggering an exchange of nuclear strikes between them. Another

high probability is the threat of a terrorist act with

the use of a nuclear device in one or several major capitals of the world.

Ext: China Influence Hurts US Heg

Chinese engagement in Latin America is a move to constrain US heg. Bussey and Garvin 1. [Jane, Glenn, reporters, "China exerting regional influence" Miami Herald -- April 15 -www.latinamericanstudies.org/cuba/china-influence.htm] Quietly but persistently, in dozens of locations from Chile to Cuba, China many military and intelligence analysts say is

is flexing its muscles in the early stages of what a plan to challenge the United States politically and

strategically in its own backyard. While Americans were preoccupied with the Chinese government's detention of a
U.S. air crew half a world away, Chinese President Jiang Zemin last week launched a 12-day tour of Latin America to cement military and trade ties. ``The

strategic equation in our own hemisphere is changing like a cancer that you can't feel,'' says Al Santoli, senior foreign policy advisor for Rep. Dana Rohrabacher, a California Republican. Across the region, China is making its mark: At tracking stations in Brazil, Chinese technicians familiarize themselves with new digital reconnaissance equipment that might someday enable them to stalk and destroy U.S. intelligence satellites. In computerized listening posts in Cuba, Chinese experts in electronic espionage scoop up signals from U.S. military satellites and sift through the contents of millions of American telephone conversations for intelligence. At airfields in Venezuela, Chinese military officers instruct pilots in the fine points of new transport planes that the government of President Hugo Chvez has purchased
from Beijing. From this toehold, China hopes to expand military sales -- eventually including jet fighters -- throughout South America. From petroleum sites in Venezuela, where Chinese oil executives are drilling exploratory wells, to ports along the Chilean coast, where nearly $1 billion in copper was loaded for shipping to China in 2000, investment and trade ties surge. China's trade with Latin America jumped more than 50 percent from 1999 to 2000, reaching a historic high of $12.6 billion. Because China's initiative in the Western Hemisphere has involved tiny nibbles rather than a single bold thrust, it has attracted little public attention. But that doesn't make it any less real, analysts warn. The notion of global rivalries might seem faintly anachronistic to many Americans -- a relic of Cold War thinking. In the 1990s, with former President Bill Clinton labeling the Chinese our ``strategic partners,'' U.S. investment in China surged and the country became a major trading partner. 'CONSIDERED ENEMIES' But Beijing doesn't see it that way, China watchers warn. ``Don't be romantic about China,'' says James Lilly, a former U.S. ambassador to Beijing. ``They aren't romantic about us. You have to seek truth from facts, and the facts are that they

run massive intelligence operations against us, they make open statements against us, their high-level documents show that they are not friendly to us. They consider us enemies.'' A Chinese military ``White Paper,'' published at the end of last year, described U.S. policy as ``hegemonism and power politics,'' and Beijing recently announced a 17 percent boost in military spending. Jiang dismisses concerns that deepening Sino-Latin American ties are aimed at challenging Washington's dominance. In Brasilia Wednesday, he called a partnership with the largest Latin
American country ``a new type of state relations based on mutual respect, equality and reciprocity,'' adding that the relationship is ``not directed against any third party,'' a pointed reference to the United States. SERIOUS CHALLENGE But Chinese

activities in the Western Hemisphere, though more subtle, may eventually pose a more serious challenge to Washington, the analysts say. ``I'm not going to tell you that they're going to put missiles in Panama and threaten Miami,'' says William Triplett
II, co-author of Red Dragon Rising: Communist China's Military Threat to America. ``This is a much more long-term thing we're talking about.'' Jiang, during his 12-day tour of Latin America, which ends Tuesday, has been explicit about his country's intent to challenge U.S. leadership in the region. During his trip through Chile, Argentina, Uruguay, Brazil, Cuba and Venezuela, he repeatedly attacked what he called Washington's attempt to impose a ``uni-polar'' scheme on the globe. Instead, Jiang

offered China's vision of a new world order. ``Multipolarization,'' Jiang said in Chile and repeated throughout his trip, ``[is] conducive to the establishment of a new international political and economic order, world peace and stability.'' The other poles of influence could be Europe, China and Japan. As part of its expanding
ties with the region, China

has been slowly but surely increasing its contacts with militaries throughout South America. Beijing has established direct military-to-military relations in Peru, Argentina, Chile, Uruguay and Venezuela. Not only have the contacts enhanced China's influence, but there's been a direct intelligence payoff. The Chinese ``are also able to gain valuable insight into the American military, because so many of these Latin officers have been trained in the United States,'' says Rick Fisher, a senior fellow at the Jamestown
Foundation, a Washington think tank that follows China closely. The best receptions for Chinese military overtures have been in Cuba -- still seeking a replacement for its old Soviet patrons -- and Venezuela, where the populist ex-paratrooper president, Hugo Chvez, pursues a relentlessly antiAmerican policy. Cuba is permitting Beijing to set up an electronic espionage shop near the old Soviet listening post at Lourdes, where the Chinese can pilfer intelligence from U.S. telecommunications, including the signals from American military satellites. Venezuela has even purchased military aircraft from China. The Venezuelans have already purchased several small transport planes, and Chvez himself last month witnessed the tryout of two new training models of warplanes. ``That's a foot in the door,'' says Fisher. ``Then maybe you buy some trainers from them, and once you have the trainers, you might as well buy the aircraft, too.'' Many analysts believe that the Chinese hope to eventually sell their J-10 fighter-bomber, similar to the American F-16, in Latin America. Even more intriguing is Chinese involvement in a space project in Brazil that has already contributed to Beijing's

ambitious military satellite program. When the United States shied away from helping Brazil's space program out of fears that the country might be developing a nuclear capacity, China jumped in. The Chinese supplied rocket-launching technology that Brazil lacked; Brazil offered real-time digital photo technology that was new to the Chinese. The fruit of their collaboration, the China-Brazil Earth Resource Satellite, or CIBERS-1, seems innocent enough. Launched in October 1999, it monitors environmental factors like vegetation and temperature. With a resolution of 20 meters -- that is, it cannot really see anything smaller than 20 meters -- CIBERS-1 is useless for military purposes. MILITARY SATELLITE But within a year, China had launched a military satellite closely modeled on CIBERS-1. The military satellite is believed capable of spotting objects as small as five meters, and intelligence experts say the Chinese are continuing to improve the optical technology all the time. Now China has announced plans to launch a constellation of eight reconnaissance satellites, half of them equipped with conventional photographic capabilities, half with radar-imaging technology capable of seeing through cloud covers. That array of satellites would allow the Chinese to look at any spot on the earth twice a day, greatly enhancing its military capabilities. Meanwhile, China continues its joint space project with Brazil. It may eventually lead to the Chinese having permanent access to Brazilian satellite tracking facilities -- a major step toward Beijing developing a killer satellite that could shoot down American satellites. ``In order to shoot down an enemy satellite, you have to have a comprehensive picture of its long-term flight path,'' says Fisher. ``Access to

These are the type of military links that also bind. Add to them growing trade, investment and economic exchanges that also build China's influence and pressure points in a region anxious for increased global economic ties and respect on the world stage.
Brazilian tracking facilities would enable them to do this with U.S. satellites.''

Chinese influence emboldens Latin American leftists constrains US heg. Ellis 6. [Evan, Associate with Booz Allen Hamilton, Inc., with an emphasis on Latin American security issues, PhD in Political
Science, "The New Chinese Engagement with Latin America: Understanding its Dynamics and the Implications for the Region" BoozAllen -- March 3 -- www6.miami.edu/hemispheric-policy/ellisthenewchineseengagementwithlatinamerica030306.pdf] In the short term, the

most profound impact of China on Latin America is its symbolic impact on the calculations of the regions political actors. For Latin America, China represents an alternative in a part of the world that has long perceived itself as economically, politically, and culturally dominated by the United Statesa perception that strengthened following the disappearance of the Soviet as a counterweight to the United States. The symbolic existence of China as a market, or a source of investment, or an ally, creates expectations in the region that cause its elites to behave differently in their dealings with each other, with the United States, and with the rest of the
popular imagination and the world.78 The degree to which China captures the imagination of Latin America has less to do with the reality of trade and investment flows, and more to do with its unique combination of attributes. Like the role played by the former Soviet Union,

China is increasingly a political counterweight to the United States in the global political and economic system, and--at least superficially in its rhetoric--a proponent of an ideological alternative to neoliberal
capitalism. But unlike the Soviet Union, China is also rapidly transforming itself from an underdeveloped country to a large and dynamic modern economy. The nations of Latin America can identify with Chinas underdeveloped roots, while being inspired by the magnitude and rapidity of its transformation. The oftenmentioned size of the Chinese population and the otherness of its culture further add to the almost romantic appeal that China engenders. For

Latin American populists such as Hugo Chavez or Evo Morales, China has become a substitute for the loss of the Soviet Union, empowering them to act more boldly, and more defiantly against the United States than would have otherwise been the case.79 When Chvez threatens to sell Venezuelas oil to China instead of to the United States,80 for example, he is re-creating a distorted version of the tactic adopted by thirdworld leaders during the cold war, attempting to playing off one superpower against the other. It is important to recognize that this empowerment flows primarily from the symbolism and expectations raised by
China, and not whether engagement with China will actually be beneficial to the country, or whether promised Chinese investment will actually occur.81

China Bad: Trade Deficits

China engagement spurs Latin American trade deficits. Johnson 5. [Stephen, Senior Policy Analyst, "Balancing China's Growing Influence in Latin America" Heritage Foundation -October 24 -- www.heritage.org/research/reports/2005/10/balancing-chinas-growing-influence-in-latin-america] However, closer

ties to China also have signifi-cant disadvantages for both Latin America and the United States: Growing trade deficits . Latin American lead-ers who sign trade and investment deals with the PRC have noticed that China's exports are more affordable than their own goods, which contributes to trade deficits. Chinese goods are made by laborers who work for one-third of the wages
of Latin American counterparts and who tolerate worse working conditions. Officials in Argentina, Brazil, and Mexico have signaled their unease about trade with such a hot com-petitor. In September 2005, Mexican President Vicente Fox made it clear to visiting President Hu Jintao that dumping electronics and cloth-ing was unacceptable. For

every dollar that Mexico makes from exports to China, the PRC makes $31 from exports to Mexico.[9]

China Bad: LA Economic Reforms

Chinese influence prevents Latin American economic reforms. Johnson 5. [Stephen, Senior Policy Analyst, "Balancing China's Growing Influence in Latin America" Heritage Foundation -October 24 -- www.heritage.org/research/reports/2005/10/balancing-chinas-growing-influence-in-latin-america]

Disinterest in economic reform . Some ana-lysts believe that the commodities-based trade model used by China will undermine the progress that Latin America has made toward industrialization. While countries like Chile and Brazil have moved beyond raw materials exports, others with powerful presidents or rul-ing oligarchies may be tempted to fall back on plantation economics. Income gaps between the rich and poor may widen as a result. More-over, such narrowly focused economies are vul-nerable to downturns in commodity prices. Some 44 percent of Latin Americans already live below the poverty line. If these countries fail to adopt reforms, social inequality and political instability could depress U.S. exports to the region and increase migration problems.

Ext: LA Economic Reforms

Chinese engagement discourages Latin American economic reforms. Ellis 6. [Evan, Associate with Booz Allen Hamilton, Inc., with an emphasis on Latin American security issues, PhD in Political
Science, "The New Chinese Engagement with Latin America: Understanding its Dynamics and the Implications for the Region" BoozAllen -- March 3 -- www6.miami.edu/hemispheric-policy/ellisthenewchineseengagementwithlatinamerica030306.pdf] Changes to Economic Structure. As suggested by the previous paragraphs, Chinese engagement with Latin America is likely to alter the structures of Latin American economies in general--and in the process, put serious pressures on Latin American

hurts the sales of Latin American manufacturers, for example, it displaces workers from the very sectors which have historically served as the cornerstone for the middle class, and a stepping stone for economic diversification.98 The
political systems. To the extent that Chinese competition manufacturing sector has also traditionally been the source of labor organization, and when displaced, a conduit of labor unrest. While it is possible that Latin American manufacturing jobs lost to Chinese competition will be compensated by growth in the primary products sectors, the sociopolitical impact of such a change is likely to be traumatic. It is not clear, for example, that workers unemployed because of the closure of a factory in the city, for example, will readily relocate to remote areas to work lower-paying jobs in the mines or in the agricultural sector. Moreover, since sectors such as mining are relatively more capital intensive than labor intensive, it

is not clear that the number of jobs created by expanded primary product exports will compensate for the number of jobs lost in manufacturing.

***MISC***

Dutch Disease Turns Energy Affs

Specifically turns energy affs. Berry 8. [Albert, Professor Emeritus of Economics at the University of Toronto, with a research focus on the economics of Latin
America, "Dutch Disease: A Threat to Latin America's Current Growth Sput?" FOCAL Point -- March -www.economics.utoronto.ca/gindart/Dutch%20Disease2%20-%20W2010.pdf] A different sort of damage is done if one or more of the sectors that shrink have a special role in the overall growth process. Many economists feel that manufacturing capital goods) play

sectors, (or some key types of manufacturing such as the production of that role because their presence helps to increase productivity in other sectors (i.e., produces externalities in economic jargon). When they shrink, whether permanently or temporarily, the economys future growth potential is impaired . Historically, employment and the weight of manufacturing in Latin Americas output rose over most of the 20th century, especially during its
high-growth third quarter, and had reached around 25 per cent and 16 per cent respectively by 1980. But since then, these figures have plunged to about 18 per cent and under 12 per cent, respectively. Dutch

disease can also hurt overall employment and income distribution when, as is often the case, the production of the booming exportable creates very few jobs and the sectors that shrink, or whose growth is discouraged by the boom, are more labour intensive. Thus oil, gas and coal production creates virtually no jobs but their export discourages agriculture and manufacturing, sectors that create many jobs. So the net effect on the demand for labour can be negative even as total GDP is rising.

DD vs. V Oil Aff

Focus on oil guarantees dutch disease. Arsenault 13. [Chris, Web Producer, "Venezuela looks to China for economic boost" Al Jazeera -- March 12 -www.aljazeera.com/indepth/features/2013/03/201331271053389351.html]

Dependency "I have a client who used to manufacture school uniforms here. It has become so difficult to produce in Venezuela, now he is just trying to import them from China." - Alvaro Ruiz Sanchez In recent decades, Venezuela has been dependent on crude exports, and this dependence has deepened since 1998 when Chavez was first elected. High oil prices, coupled with the governments desire to increase social spending at home and rigid currency controls, have made life even more difficult for Venezuelan businesses. Petroleum exports tend to raise the value of a countrys currency, making other exports less competitive - a phenomenon economists call the Dutch disease. I dont think its feasible to create alternative exports in the next two years, Venezuelan economist David Pinto told Al Jazeera. The government that is elected in April will just have to focus on managing the oil exports it gets. The Dutch disease factor is just too high. Sanchez has seen the troubles faced by Venezuelan exporters first-hand. I have a client who used to manufacture school uniforms here, he said. It has become so difficult to produce in Venezuela, now he is just trying to import them from China." While economics drives the China relationship, demographics is playing an increasingly important role.