You are on page 1of 3

BWD GLOBAL

NOV. 14, 2013 TO: JOE MONAHAN

FROM: Bruce Donisthorpe RE: ABQ ABORTION BALLOT REFERENDUM, NOV. 19TH SPECIAL ELECTION

METHODOLOGY: Automated phone dialing survey using established demographic methodological standards to 494 likely voting Demcratic, Republican and Independent registered households with known voting history in general elections who reside and vote in the City of Albuquerque, New Mexico. Surveys were conducted using this method between 6 pm and 9 pm. As is done routinely in surveys, results were weighted or adjusted at the top-line to ensure that responses accurately reflect the populations makeup by factors such as age, sex, region, and other established demographic standards and variables. The margin of sampling error for the surveys conducted for this questions is 4.4% with a 95% level of confidence for the interviews conducted in this survey. TOP LINE: Question: Do you support or oppose the Albuquerque special ballot measure to ban most abortions after 20 weeks of pregnancy? OPPOSE SUPPORT UNDECIDED Margin of Error: 4.4% 494 Likely Voters, City of Albuquerque Bruce Donisthorpe has been polling professionally since 2006. He has conducted several polls for Joe Monahans political blog in the 2008, 2010 and 2012 New Mexico primary and general election campaigns. Donisthorpe conducted a survey on Mayor Berrys public approval rating in 2012 for the Monahan blog. He was active in polling the City of Albuquerque elections in 2009, in which he accurately forecasted Berrys win and the upset victory by City Councillor Dan Lewis in Albuquerque City Counil District 5. Donisthorpe correctly forecasted the re-election of Mayor Berry in the October 8th municipal election. This is the 3rd survey Donisthorpe has conducted in the City of Albuquerque elections this fall. 52.9% 41.4% 5.7%

THE BOTTOM LINE UP FRONT Opponents of the proposed abortion ballot referendum maintain a 12-point lead heading into the election next Tuesday, November 19th in the Duke City. Opponents are bolstered by a coalition of ProChoice voters in the special election. Ballot proponents picked up about 6 points since our last survey on Nov. 6th, with the gain largely made from increases in Republican support for the proposal. Key Demographics: Political Party: DEM voters support the measure by a 74-19 margin while INDP voters prefer the measure by a 54-40 ratio. REP voters support the ballot issue by a 67-29 clip. Gender: Almost 2/3 of women surveyed opposed the measure, led by DEM women who opposed the referendum by an 82-13 margin; INDP women opposed the abortion ban by a 57-39 margin while REP women supported the measure by a 63-30 margin. Among men who were surveyed, DEM men opposed the proposal by a 79-16 margin, with INDP men opposing the measure by a 50-41 ratio. REP men supported the measure by a 73-27 margin. Ethnicity: Anglo voters opposed the ballot proposal by a 46%-38% margin in our survey while a bare plurality of Hispanics supported the proposed measure by a 47%-46% margin with 8% undecided. Both Anglo and Hispanic DEMs opposed the measure though Hispanic DEMS supported the referendum proposal by a higher margin (31% Hispanic support vs. 15% Anglo support). Hispanic Republicans and INDPs both support the measure while IND Anglo voters are trending against the proposal. Areas: West Side voters favor the ballot measure by 49-47 margin, while Valley voters oppose the proposal by a 56-32 margin. Voters in the SE/Mid Heights have the strongest opposition to the proposal at 68-25 while NE Heights survey respondents favor the proposal by a 59-18 margin.

ABQ CITYWIDE SPECIAL REFERENDUM DEMOGRAPHIC BREAKOUTS 11/14/2013 CATEGORY OVERALL


GENDER FEMALE DEM REP INDP MALE DEM REP INDP ETHNICITY ANGLO DEM REP INDP HISPANIC DEM REP INDP PARTY DEM REP INDP AREA WEST SIDE N/S VALLEY SE/MID HEIGHTS NE HEIGHTS IDEOL PROG LIB MOD CONSV UNSURE

SUPP% 41.4% 30% 13% 63% 39% 41% 16% 73% 41% 38% 15% 63% 37% 47% 31% 78% 53% 19% 67% 40%

OPPOSE% 52.9% 65% 82% 30% 57% 55% 79% 27% 50% 58% 79% 32% 62% 46% 60% 16% 42% 74% 29% 54%

UND% 5.7% 5% 5% 8% 4% 4% 5% 0% 9% 4% 6% 5% 2% 8% 9% 5% 5% 7% 4% 7%

49% 32% 25% 43% 16% 14% 39% 80% 18%

47% 56% 68% 52% 80% 80% 53% 15% 59%

4% 12% 7% 5% 4% 6% 8% 5% 24%

ABORTION PRO-LIFE PRO-CHOICE UNSURE


VOTE INTEREST--HIGH DEM REP INDP

80% 9% 18% 44% 23% 70% 45%

16% 86% 36% 53% 73% 26% 53%

3% 5% 45% 3% 4% 4% 2%