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201211

REVIEW

Alicia Brcena
Antonio Prado

ECONOMIC
COMMISSION FOR
LATIN AMERICA
AND THE CARIBBEAN
Osvaldo Sunkel
Chairman of the Editorial Board
Andr Hofman
Director
Miguel Torres
Technical Editor

CIP
/ . :
, 2012.11
ISBN 978-7-80234-857-8
. . . . F173.04-53
CIP2012242500
CEPAL Review Special Chinese Edition
Copyright by Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean / ECLAC
United Nations 2012
This work was originally published by Economic Commission for Latin America
and the Caribbean / ECLAC. This Chinese translation was arranged by the Deutsche
Gesellschaft fr Internationale Zusammenarbeit / GIZ. In case of any discrepancies, the
original language will govern.


168 100037

ISBN 978-7-80234-857-8


8891194mm 1/16
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2012121
90.00
01068990535 68990692
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CEPAL REVIEW

Alicia Brcena

III

Alicia Brcena

21

Osvaldo Rosales
1990~2006

41

Roberto lvarez E.Eugenio Figueroa B.Mara Pa Figueroa Z.Macarena Palma E.

55

Rhys Jenkins

69

Eduardo GitliRandall Arce

85

Jorge Blzquez-LidoyJavier RodrguezJavier Santiso

109

Dani Rodrik
131

Manuel R. Agosin

147

Ricardo Ffrench-Davis
163

Jos Antonio Ocampo

185

Ramn Lpez
205

Gustav RanisFrances Stewart

221

1990~2005
Simone Cecchini Andras Uthoff

235

Daniel Sotelsek Leopoldo Laborda


255

Andr HofmanMiguel Torres

273

201211

CEPAL REVIEW

CEPAL
Review

ECLACCDRF

30

20125

CAF

LAIA

2005~2010

Latin America-Asia-Pacific Relations

Observatory

1976

Ral Prebisch36

4000

Thomson

ReutersSSCI

2000~2011

Journal of Economic
Literature

15

201211

II

CEPAL REVIEW

CDRF

BMZ
GIZ

Alicia Brcena

201211

III

CEPAL REVIEW

27

80

GIZ

30

GIZ

201211

1
CEPAL REVIEW 10020104

Alicia Brcena

Alicia Brcena

alicia.barcena@cepal.org

CEPAL REVIEW 10020104

ECLAC

2008

2090

Mario CimoliFilipa CorreiaDaniel Titelmann


Osvaldo KacefJoseluis SamaniegoLuis Yez

CEPAL REVIEW 10020104

19981999

2080

2000~2001

GDP

20706%20
802%2090

2003~2008

3%

208090

2070

Ffrench-Davis2005

Stiglitz2006

200220

80

90

2090
1989

Ocampo2005

90

2002

2070

2003~2007

2090

5%5

3%

11%7.4%

1044%34%

2009a

2090

199412

2003~2008

CEPAL REVIEW 10020104

3.6%

2010

33%

138%

25%

11%

Rosales

2009

2009b

2009f

2002~2008

2008b

a 2009

CEPAL REVIEW 10020104

20081.8

208090

2008

1990

48%200833%

2002

2080

8090

2002

30

2009d

20086

2002~2008

2080

-18%-10%-9%

198020084400

900

-8%

1980~2008

CEPAL REVIEW 10020104

2002~2008

20052006

2002~2008

44%34%19.4%12.9%

5255

0.550.52

0.550.52

5~106

3%5

2009d

2008

2002~2008

CEPAL REVIEW 10020104

BRBOHNNICOPYARPAGT
CLMXDOSVPEECCRUYVE

182002~2008

-1.8%7

1.6PinedaPrez-Caldentey

Titelman2009

2009
1982~1983-1.8%

20021983

FDI6

4.8%

2008

CEPAL REVIEW 10020104

12009-1.5%

8.3%

2008644.13

2009530

9008

2008118

900

200992

500

2009

2009a

24%25%

2009f

2009b2009g

2009hOrozco

2009

40

78

KacefJimnez

20078.9%

2009

7.2%2009

CEPAL REVIEW 10020104

20104.1%

2009a

SME

2009eSojo2009

2009

2010

2006

2009
a

10

CEPAL REVIEW 10020104

1990~2009

CEPAL REVIEW 10020104

11

2009

2004~2007

34

OECD

84

12

CEPAL REVIEW 10020104

200910

20101

20092009

1990~20071

10

52120083.1

22009
2007~20081.25

1.

650020093500
20106700
2009

Ocampo2005

10 1950~2008
2000

CEPAL REVIEW 10020104

13

10

2007

Prebisch1949

2007

11 1970~2006

14

CEPAL REVIEW 10020104

2.

112080

9090

2000~2006

2003~20072

3680

203

905

CimoliPorcile2008

12

11

2080

30~50

90

75Samaniego2009

90

Fajnzylber

1990

CEPAL REVIEW 10020104

15

12 ab1996~2006

a
b

PADIINE
DANEINEGIIBGEBEA

2009c

2020

200912

22020

2050

16

CEPAL REVIEW 10020104

3.

Hopenhayn2001

2080

InfanteSunkel2009

2090

20

2006

1990~2008

85

15

2002~2008

2009d

1990~2008

4.

15

2002~2008

1.71990~2008

Martner2007

CEPAL REVIEW 10020104

17

10

20062007
1

1/3

2008

20082009

-0.3-2.8

18

1998

2008

2009

20104.1

2010

18

CEPAL REVIEW 10020104

Cimoli, Mario and Gabriel Porcile (2008), Volatility and Crisis


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CEPAL REVIEW 10020104

Santiago, Chile, December. United Nations publication, Sales


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(2009d), Social Panorama of Latin America 2009 (LC/
G.2423-P), Santiago, Chile, November.
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United Nations publication, Sales No. 89.II.G.5.
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CEPAL Review, No. 73 (LC/G.2130-P), Santiago, Chile,
April.
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19

Emerging Markets, Washington, D.C., October.


IMF (International Monetary Fund) (2009), World Economic
Outlook, 2009, Washington, D.C., October.
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G.2400-P), Santiago, Chile, April.
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Santiago, Chile, October.
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Santiago, Chile, November.
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21
CEPAL REVIEW

Osvaldo Rosales

FDI

Osvaldo Rosales

osvaldo.rosales@cepal.org

22

CEPAL REVIEW

2016PPP

GDP

2010

6%20114%2003~2008

30

Rosales2009

OECD

SME

CEPAL REVIEW

23

2009

2015

2010b

12001~2008

2015

1/420092/3

1/3

2010

IMF

Economic Perspectives20114

2017

10

2010

79%

30%

2.5%

2010

10.5%1.7%

2001

32000

200720272040

205084%

2008

24

CEPAL REVIEW

1 1979~2010

2 2000~2012

20114

CEPAL REVIEW

25

1/21/3

1/21/4

20081990

5%

2010

23.1%14.5%

415.4%11.4%

G7

30%

G20

20%

53%28%23%2000~2007

1980~2016
10

20114

26

CEPAL REVIEW

4 2007~2010

WTO20102011/62820114
*

CEPAL REVIEW

27

10%40%

43%

2015

20101

2010

12

ASEAN

5 20002009

World Commodity Forecasts: Industrial Raw Materials20101


World Commodity Forecasts: FoodFeedstuffs and Beverages201011

28

CEPAL REVIEW

1%

1.

218%

2090

60%

17

200440%

14

2080

20%2009 13%20

2090

1716

20002009

2009(DOTS)

COMTRADE

CEPAL REVIEW

29

2000~2020a

a 16

30

CEPAL REVIEW

2000~2009

CACM
20002009
200912
200912
>10%
<10%

CEPAL REVIEW

31

90%

70%

2008

23

2008

24

710

10

3
MERCOSUR

32

CEPAL REVIEW

7 1985~2009
10
a

CEPAL REVIEW

90%

33

Rosales2010

20

2007JenkinsDussell

80%

Peters2009JenkinsDussell Peters

2001~2006

5052

200511

4%

2003

90%85%

2008

20092010

2.

34

CEPAL REVIEW

9%17%

13%8

90%

2009

17%

Sinopec71

41095%

YPF40%

CNOOC

Sinochem

2010

Chinalco

Minmetals

150

Wuhan

2008~2009

MOFCOM20104

CEPAL REVIEW

35

Huawei

32011227

ZTE

BYD

CheryGeely

8 2006~2010a

a 80%
2011415

36

CEPAL REVIEW

21

2010

2010

CEPAL REVIEW

37

2010

20101

11945

10

IIRSA

CCPIT

IDBCAF

2015

38

CEPAL REVIEW

2009

(a)

(b)

(c)

Osvaldo Rosales2009

1125www.cepal.org/comercio

CEPAL REVIEW

39

200811

2008

2007

LAPA

Rosales2010

20114

ECLAC (Economic Commission for Latin America and the


Caribbean) (2010a), The Peoples Republic of China and
Latin America and the Caribbean: Towards a Strategic
Relationship (LC/L.3224-P), Santiago, Chile, May.
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Economy 2009-2010. A Crisis Generated in the Centre and a
Recovery Driven by the Emerging Economies (LC/G.2467-P),
Santiago, Chile, December. United Nations publication, Sales
No. E.10.II.G.5.
(2009), Latin America in the World Economy 2008-2009.
Crisis and Opportunities for Regional Cooperation (LC/
G.2413-P), Santiago, Chile, December. United Nations
publication, Sales No. E.09.II.G.62.
(2008), Opportunities for Trade and Investment between
Latin America and Asia-Pacific (LC/L.2971), Santiago,
Chile, November.
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(2007), Latin American Economic Outlook 2008, Paris.
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emergente: oportunidades y desafos para Amrica Latina y el
Caribe, Pensamiento iberoamericano, No. 6, Madrid.
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Beijing, November 19.

41
CEPAL REVIEW 9820098

1990~2006
Roberto lvarez E.Eugenio Figueroa B.
Mara Pa Figueroa Z.Macarena Palma E.

1990~2006
79
Roberto lvarez E.

ralvarez@bcentral.cl

Eugenio Figueroa B.

efiguero@econ.uchile.cl

Mara Pa Figueroa Z.

mfiguero@fen.uchile.cl

Macarena Palma E.

mpalma@fen.uchile.cl

42

CEPAL REVIEW 9820098

20

15%LehmannMoreno

Jaramillo2007

Mesquita Moreira

2007Moreira

1990~200679

17

115.43158.4

9%

14.8206.1

66.3884.3

2.465.3

11.7335.2

11990~2006530

7900
41057002

41990~2006

82%1990

80.3669.6

Leamer1984

Mario CimoliFilipa CorreiaDaniel Titelmann

Blzquez-LidoyRodrguezSantiso2006Claro

Osvaldo KacefJoseluis SamaniegoLuis Yez

2006DevlinEstevadeordalRodrguez-Clare2006

RosalesKuwayama2007

1990~2006

CEPAL REVIEW 9820098

: 1990~2006
10

COMTRADE

1990~2006
10

COMTRADE

1990~2006

43

44

CEPAL REVIEW 9820098

1990~2006
10

COMTRADE

1990~2006

CEPAL REVIEW 9820098

45

41%200667%2006

61%

PerkinsSyrquin1989

41%

2090

Leamer1995

0.74%

0.43%0.36%0.09%0.34%

0.31%20060.53%

1990~2006

a 19902006
COMTRADE

1990~2006

COMTRADE

1990~2006

46

CEPAL REVIEW 9820098

1990~2006

COMTRADE

1990~2006

CEPAL REVIEW 9820098

47

1.

Tinbergen1962

BaierBergstrand

2007Rose

2004BlumGoldfarb

2006

Leamer1987

 (1)

X ij ijGDP i

iDIST

BORDLANG

791343
(2)

123

1990~2006

ln (1+X)

792

2.

COMTRADE 4

SITC2

1990~2006 5

Leamer1984

15
Leamer1987
Schott2003

comtrade.un.org

19621990

1990~2006

48

CEPAL REVIEW 9820098

Rose2004

BosworthCollins

CEPII

2003

http://www.cepii.org/anglaisgraph/bdd/bdd.htm

CEPIIB. BosworthS.M. CollinsThe empirics of growth: an update


3422003COMTRADE

(3)

190%

-1.98-1.47

Rose2004

1990~2006

CEPAL REVIEW 9820098

49

10%10%

79

(4)

PerkinsSyrquin1989

Hanson

Xiang2004

35%

1990~2006

p < 0.01b p < 0.05c p < 0.1

1990~2006

50

CEPAL REVIEW 9820098

WacziargHorn-

Welch20031990~2000

40%

73%

20%

20%

1990~2006

CEPAL REVIEW 9820098

51

Leamer

E.E. LeamerThe Heckscher-Ohlin model in theory and practicePrinceton Studies in International Finance77
1995

1990~2006

52

CEPAL REVIEW 9820098

http://go.worldbank.org/LGOXFTV550

CEPIIB. BosworthS.M. CollinsThe empirics of growth: an update


3422003COMTRADE

1990~2006

CEPAL REVIEW 9820098

53

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Research, December.

1990~2006

55
CEPAL REVIEW 10320114

Rhys Jenkins

2002~2008

15

17

Rhys Jenkins

R.O.Jenkins@uea.ac.uk

56

CEPAL REVIEW 10320114

Lehmann

2007Cesa-Bianchi2009Caldern

2002~2008

2009

2005

II20065Streifel

2006ParkZhai2006

2006CheungMorin20072008

2002~2007

2006

20

2007

comtrade
2007

2/3
Lehmann

MorenoJaramillo2007
2007

57

CEPAL REVIEW 10320114

15 1

20022007

2007152600
2/3
1/3

2008I.8GallagherPorzecanski2009
RosalesKuwayama200785

Streifel2006
200652

GDP
20052.2

CheungMorin
2007
20092.5

40%

20082008

2002

2.1E.08.II.D.21

2002~2007

CheungMorin20074

2002~2007

1/51/3

200549~50

20042008

2002

2070

2000

2090

1SITC0-468

200545

58

CEPAL REVIEW 10320114

CheungMorin2007

200547~492070

2004

2002~2007

1/1027

1/4

1995~20041

20064-3

2.8

2006

4-14-2

2002

21

Caldern2009

542002~2003

2005

22002~2007

2009

6163

3021

20

9021

2002

22004

3199085%

200345%200574

CEPAL REVIEW 10320114

59

200725%

20092

20081.42002~2007

113%

SDR80%

20082.1

20065.1

20022007

2525%

12%

20092

2002

20072008

2008

2007315

52003~2007

4.6%

2007

Timmer20101

2002~2007

200715

2002~2007
4

2007

2002

5
Dollar2009Timmer
4

2010

60

CEPAL REVIEW 10320114

BP

20022007

2008

FAO

2007

2002~2007

2007

20071715

2007

20062008

23

1.

2002~2007

32002~2007

CEPAL REVIEW 10320114

61

2007

a 2002~20072007
2

2007

a 2002~20072007
3

62

CEPAL REVIEW 10320114

2.

2090
Ray2008

2090

2002

2002

2002

170200670

(COCHILCO)2008

2003~2006

WilliamsHarlyn Meade2007

40%

Ostensson2005

10%~25%

180%

2002~2006

OPEC

2002

20081.18

10%

20081.5

61995~2004
200%12%~37%
2006A.6

CEPAL REVIEW 10320114

63

2007

2002

Ray2008

15

152007

410~730560

20071521%

7%

3/4

10%

2007

1217

4.5
~12

15

16%

340~610410~730

64

CEPAL REVIEW 10320114

152007

2007

415

6172007
15
2002

CEPAL REVIEW 10320114

20%~50%

65

7%~20%

10%

Jenkins2008

Devlin20062Ellis20092

Gonzlez2008

340

420~750

20074102002

66

CEPAL REVIEW 10320114

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69
CEPAL REVIEW 7420018

Eduardo GitliRandall Arce

WTO

NAFTA

2000101

Eduardo Gitli

(CINPE),
egitli@racsa.co.cr

Randall Arce

(CINPE),
marce@racsa.co.cr

70

CEPAL REVIEW 7420018

199911

GATT

194823

1949

1985~1989

1986

20%Mody Wang1997294

19873

SEZs

10

2000

1999b

13

2~23

1990~1997GDP

11%

8%19981999

0.8%1.4%1999

BosworthOfer1995

2000b199671.2%
1

1998

51.8%

42.6%LinCai Li1998

19993

422

1997

19.6%7.3%

GNP42

7.2%5.8%

70%FDI

31997

53.7%

CEPAL REVIEW 7420018

:1997

71

22.7%20.2%18.2%
2000a

34.8%
12.8%9.8%7.4%
7.1%
2000a4
20
1997
85%5

(1999b)

62%
1999b2~14

4
5PC-TAS

30

1987

1995

2/3

GAO20009

2/3
7

1998

12
2000

72000735

199242.7%

199817%2005

72

CEPAL REVIEW 7420018

10%

199212471998
400



150

GAO2000

CEPAL REVIEW 7420018

73

1.

1997

1996

7.2%19935.4%

1997

21993~1997

1.9%

413

199725.9%

15.1%497.47

12

31998

29%21.4%

13.1%

10.1%

31.9%

15

26.6%11.5%

:
()

(USDC) (MAGIC)
(PC-TAS)

2.

19991115

82000

74

CEPAL REVIEW 7420018

1998a
10

a 21
:

25%

13.3%

49%

12%~18%

30%

15%~25%5% ~ 7.5%

1997

50%

20

200812

90

314

1999

2000

1997

24.6%2005

31%20041

9.4%

14%22%

7.l%2003

17.5%

80%~100%2006

25%
9

10

2005
10
9

6090

2000a

2000c

CEPAL REVIEW 7420018

75

19992000519

1997

2000

3.

13

2000c

Alexander Haig

Henry KissingerJames Baker

Warren Christopher

11

1999
11

Bates

20009

1999

MFNPNTR

1974

Lardy2000

76

CEPAL REVIEW 7420018

199013.9%

199811.4%

12

0.2%0.5%

1999a13

19972

1999

6.6%

42000

0.7%

2
2090

1.

6
13
12

Gitli Arce2000a

1998a

a 21

CEPAL REVIEW 7420018

77

, 1990~1999

2000519

15018.6%10.6%
70%25%10%
5226%35%5%10%

25%35%49%
750-50
2000030

2000

1994

783.7%

NAFTA

63.9%

14

1998

43.2%

19941995

Gitli Arce2000a

14

78

CEPAL REVIEW 7420018

16.5%

20053 15

20054

2005

16

20056

15

37%

162008

1999

: 1997

(1999b

2000
CBI
2000101

17

1999b

178

CEPAL REVIEW 7420018

79

/:

2005

a, b

1995~1998

1998

T189

CBI

1993

12.819984.5

1999b86

Gereffi2000

64%

Ng

Yeats1999

1996

199367.5199859.6

58.5%

1999b82

19

17%
28.5%33.6%
10

199542%

Arias1999; Ziga1999Gereffi

40%7%6%

2000

55%
1999b85

183.7%2.6%
2.4%6203424015 6109100012

19

6105100010

80

CEPAL REVIEW 7420018

19842000
ab

6115
250
200416%

T61091000T
61099010
T420200416%
621210
75%

a 1990

1990

23

: Gitli Arce 2000b

2005

13.1%

2.

64

CEPAL REVIEW 7420018

81

82

CEPAL REVIEW 7420018

10 a

1994

19900.5%19987.7%1995
10%

21
27%
4%
54%11

a
1999b871996
1998Gitli1997

0.5%
1990~1998
0%37.1%1990~1998

14.2%35.5%
2000

199082%

199818%

34.2%

66.5%

1996~1998

60%1995~1998100

1995~199828%

6406106500
/

3. 22

6404193515

4%

1998

2.8%

199047.3%199860.5%1994

63.3%

30.3%5.5%30%

201995

0.2%

208%

21

1999c

229018908000

83

CEPAL REVIEW 7420018

11

a
1995~1998

4. 23

19982.6%
1997
2.2%
1998
7.9%5%

2000~2005

2005

23

199412

0.2%

238473301000

84

CEPAL REVIEW 7420018

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85
CEPAL REVIEW 90200612

Jorge Blzquez-LidoyJavier RodrguezJavier Santiso

620
1998~20043415

Jorge Blzquez-Lidoy

blazquezlidoy@telefonica.net

Javier Rodrguez
(BBVA)

javier.rgarcia@grupobbva.com

Javier Santiso
OECD

javier.santiso@oecd.org

86

CEPAL REVIEW 90200612

20
1

GDP

13

209.5%

2040

1%6%

2003

45

2005

2004

200410

2005

50~60

2006
Santiago SanzJuan

20

Antonio RodrguezLuciana Taft

Jos Mara lvarez PalleteClaustre BajonaJean Christophe

BasDominique BocquetGuillermo CalvoEliana Cardoso


Luis Miguel CastillaCarlos ElizondoBarry EichengreenAntoni
EstevadeordalAlbert FishlowErnesto GabaAlicia GarcaHerreroAndrea GoldsteinRicardo HausmannBert Hofman

Louka KatseliNathaniel KarpSanjay LallRichard Lapper

Nicholas LardyBndicte LarreEduardo Lora

1000150

Jos Luis MachineaOsmel ManzanoDiane McCollum

YaoLi (2003)

Alejandro MiccoCharles OmanJim ONeillLuisa Palacios

420032004

Guillermo PerryNicolas PinaudPhilip Poole

(Eichengreen2004 2006)

Helmut ReisenGermn RosDani RodrikManuel Snchez

5Deutsche Bank(2004)the Bank of

David Taguas

Spain(2004) 20

12003GDP

9.1%

11%20052003GDP

Dealogic

Alwyn Young1978~1998

1.7Young2000 2003

2003IPO

CEPAL REVIEW 90200612

87

15

1820

GDPGDP

30%

(IMF

2004HSBC2005)

Rumbaugh

Blancher(2004)

(AhearneFernald

Rumbaugh

2003)

Blancher(2004)

(GoldsteinPinaud 2006)

(ECLAC2005Andean Development

( Eichengreen 2004)

Corporation2006)

(Lin2004LallWeiss2004)

198860%

2%2005

70%

2005

2004101

(IDB2004)

2005GDP70%

Enrique Iglesias

30%

60%~65%

Soler (2003)2003~2012

20036

(BBVA2003)

1%

2004

(BBVA2004)

6Angus Maddison
(Maddison1998)Carol ShiueWolfgang Keller
(2004a 2004b)

7Lora (2004a) IDB (2006)


8LAEBAwww.

laeba.org/index.cfm

88

CEPAL REVIEW 90200612

1978

(Lora,2004b)

1978~2005GDP

9.5% 20

200112

10

6.4%

11

40.6%1

2001

2090

10
(Chu Prusa2004)
112002~2004

9Yifu Lin 2004Zijian Wang

Wei2004

20

2004

a 20051~6
b

CEPAL REVIEW 90200612

89

1/42002

112

440

20
1980

300

0.9%2002

5%20036%2004

1990~200290%

425%

2004

304

69.2%4

UNCTAD

12

620

ECLAC

SIGCI

2004

87.4%3

199828.0%
46.6%18.6

12www.intracen.org

90

CEPAL REVIEW 90200612

Intracen2004

Intracen2004/

CEPAL REVIEW 90200612

91

CI

61

13

34

CS
CC

2003200280%
2001~2004

aitajttnij

200575%

ij

Aracruz

12%15

14

3415

19982004

(Paiva

de Abreu2005)

34
719982004

1320032004

1520045400

140.94

92

CEPAL REVIEW 90200612

2002~2004a

2002~2004

2000~2002

CEPAL REVIEW 90200612

2002~2004

93

94

CEPAL REVIEW 90200612

1998~20012001~2004

16

2003

12.1%

Berges (2004)

17

CI

18

14

1511

200585%

16Soler(2003)

171

18www.intracen.org

CEPAL REVIEW 90200612

95

Intracen/2004

EvansHarrigan(2003)

1994

1/4

2090

Hummels

(Deardoff2004)

2001a

HarriganVenables(2004)

(Disdier Head

Hummel (2001b)

2004)

(BrunCarrBr 2005) Anderson

vanWincoop (2003)

96

CEPAL REVIEW 90200612

19

Hummels (2001b)

21

1955~1997Glaeser

Kohlhase2003

BerthelonFreund2003

20

77025%30%

22ClarkDollarMicco (2004)

CarrereSchiff

2003

1/41/4

1962~2000

12%

10%

DOT

15%

DisdierHead2004

715

55856

11

20

1/4

1/412%5000

20

ClarkDollar
Micco200430

21
1%18%

19Andersonvan Wincoop2004
20

2
22LimaoVenables200010%
20%
40%

620

15

97

CEPAL REVIEW 90200612

CSm

1.2111

CCm

23

aittn

ajttn

92003

1998~2004CSm

24

CCm

50%

CIm8

20%2003

20031/3

1997~2004

a 2001~2004

23

a CIm

2002~2004

2000~2002

IanchovichinaWalmsley2003
242004
34.3%19977.4%2004

25.3%19975%2004
7.2%19972.3%

98

CEPAL REVIEW 90200612

40%

66%

2004

47%40%9.3%

1983

2004

180

1002000~2004

10

LatinFocus (2004)

IanchovichinaMartin (2003)

25

(IMF2004)

( Yang2003; HSBC

2005)21

9%

20

25(IMF2004)

99

CEPAL REVIEW 90200612

11

GDP

GDP

1952~1972
1979~1999
8.5%26 13%27

0.6%
1952~19725.8%
0.6%1979~19993.7%

Summers Heston

0.6%3

2050GDP2080
GDP1160%
15%25%28
GDPGDP

29
20056.1%
7.3%1019

26
27Summers HestonPWT 6.1Heston
Summers1997

29IanchovichinaMartin2001

28

3 GDP

Summers Heston

100

CEPAL REVIEW 90200612

GDP321

20024.4%

209016%

7%

42000

20108%2020
18%

GDPSummers
Heston30GDP

12

GDP2002 ~2020

GDP

12312090
10.1%3.3%
3.4%20

32

30GDP

31

33

32WilsonPurushothaman
2003 GaulierLemoinenal-Kesenci,2005
2005

33(2004)

4 GDP
GDPGDP

Summers Heston

CEPAL REVIEW 90200612

101

(Lall

Weiss2004)

2003

35 2004

2020

GDP1/4

4%

2001~2003

2090

270110

2020011502000

200420052003

52%

30%

2/3

2003550(

365 36 2004

2005600

34

10
37

(Xiao2005)

1/4

2003

35ECLAC2004a
36ECLAC2004b2003
8801999

341670

37MITHuang

2003http://www.cecc.gov/pages/

( Shixue2004)

hearings/092403/huang.php

102

CEPAL REVIEW 90200612

2002

23%

1013

13666%

50

38

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39

1991~2003

20

3502003

(McKibbin ThyeWoo

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2003)

2004

1984~2001Garcia-Herrero

50%30%

2005

70

1995~2001

60%

16%

20042005

600

2004

80%180

40
2004

38

2004

17.5IBM50

130

(2005)
400

0.5%

2001

28

44

Chang Wong2003;

WongOpper Hu2004
39Garcia-HerreroSantabrbara2004
ChantasasawatFung2004
EichengreenTong2005a2005bMercereau2005

40UNCTAD2004

CEPAL REVIEW 90200612

103

(BBVA)

2001

300

4002004

10

15

EMBRAER42

20

MARCOPOLO

Embraco1995

WEG

Gerday

INBEV

2500

2.5

200410

Ricardo Hausmann

Dani Rodrik

41

2006

,Rodrik2006
HausmanHwangRodrik2006

41

2004232008

10020034027%
70

(Kemmerer mission

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20045040%(The

(Jeffrey Sachs

Economist2005; Financial Times,2005)

2004

IBM

Huang2005http://
web.mit.edu/yshuang/www/

42Goldstein2004

104

CEPAL REVIEW 90200612

1.1

CIa1998~2004b

a CI

2004

1.2

Intracen /2004

CEPAL REVIEW 90200612

105

a US$/TEU

CMPCH

LSU

ClarkDollarMicco2004

ADC (Andean Development Corporation) (2006): Amrica latina


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April, unpublished.
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CEPAL REVIEW 90200612

Agglomeration, NBER Working Paper, No. 10404,


Cambridge, Massachusetts, National Bureau of Economic
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109
CEPAL REVIEW 7320014

Dani Rodrik

Dani Rodrik

dani-rodrik@harvard.edu

110

CEPAL REVIEW 7320014

2090

46%

2%801%

901982

30%61%1

80

3/4

1461%

141999

1999

Guillermo Perry

Guilherme SedlacekLuis Serven Mariano Tommasi

Jorge DominguezNora Lustig

Vladimir Kliouev

Norman HicksBill MaloneyGuillermo PerryMartn Rama

CEPAL REVIEW 7320014

111

14a

a
1999

1601

85%93%

23

Romero1999

1/3

2080

2030

19998100

1Taylor Gooby1989

112

CEPAL REVIEW 7320014

2090

2080
1982

1999

1981

1929~193335%1933

2040

25%11981

202090

60702

20%10%

Alan Garca

BordoBoldinWhite19986

10
12131997

2Lustig1995

CEPAL REVIEW 7320014

113

1981

Hall199820

Jacoby1998

805

Rockoff1998

10

Rockoff1998134

203040

2080

2030

Jacoby1998

29~31

2080

Glewwe

2070

114

CEPAL REVIEW 7320014

2080

20

90

1999

Mrquez

Pages1998

2080

FerreiraPaes de Barro1999

3ILO

10

27

208090

22%34%64%69%

198649%1995

44%50%17%

25%1989~1991

22%

54%31%
Augusto Pinochet

31998

CEPAL REVIEW 7320014

115

10

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19997
19971.11.219997 FerreiraPaes de Barros19991

20

1999

4, 5

AmadeoCamargo1997

1998

Pessino1997
5

AmadeoCamargo1997

116

CEPAL REVIEW 7320014

16

MrquezPages1998
4198116
1981~19881989~19931994~1998
U
2080
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2080
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199716
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GavinHausmann1998

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dlnyitdlnyti

117

CEPAL REVIEW 7320014

dlnyit = it
dlnyt = t

GlewweHall1998

(dlnyit - dlnyt) = it

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GavinHausmann1996
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Lustig

118

CEPAL REVIEW 7320014

4a

a 100
1999

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CEPAL REVIEW 7320014

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CEPAL REVIEW 7320014

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22090

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CEPAL REVIEW 7320014

121

208090a

a20802090
*=99%**=95%***=90%

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pf(k, l)

122

CEPAL REVIEW 7320014

f k > 0, f l > 0, f

kk

< 0, f ll < 0, f kl > 0.

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CEPAL REVIEW 7320014

123

I = w + k

HausmannGavin1996

1999

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Michael Gavin

Gavin1999
Gavin

124

CEPAL REVIEW 7320014

6
a

1988~1994

*=99%**=95%***=90%
b

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ep

l1

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CEPAL REVIEW 7320014

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(2.8)

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(2.3)

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CEPAL REVIEW 7320014

2.11

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CEPAL REVIEW 7320014

127

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Rodrik1999

JaggersGurr1995

Pencavel(199758)

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MrquezPages
1998

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96

Domnguez

1997

128

CEPAL REVIEW 7320014

1990

Patricio Aylwin

(Domnguez1997109~112)

Aylwin

Domnguez

1998

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Hugo Chvez

1990

1992

Pinochet

1998

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1999Chvez

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1998

CEPAL REVIEW 7320014

129

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Manuel R. Agosin

1980~2003

Manuel R. Agosin

managosin@econ.uchile.cl

132

CEPAL REVIEW 9720094

1980~2003

Alfie UlloaAlejandro Tmola

Robert DevlinRoberto BouzasRicardo Ffrench-Davis

2005912

Economic growth with equity

20061218

2007Agosin

CEPAL REVIEW 9720094

133

DVD

HausmannRodrik2003

Vettas

2000

HausmannKlinger2007

HausmannRodrik2006

Gerschenkron

1962

Hausmann

Rodrik2003

Romer1993

117
2080
AgosinBravo-

TL
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134

CEPAL REVIEW 9720094

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CEPAL REVIEW 9720094

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CEPAL REVIEW 9720094

HausmannRodrikVelasco

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Amsden1989

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1980~200313

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1991~2003

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CEPAL REVIEW 9720094

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CEPAL REVIEW 9720094

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CEPAL REVIEW 9720094

141

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CEPAL REVIEW 9720094

KaufmannKraayMastruzzi2003

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CEPAL REVIEW 9720094

143

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144

CEPAL REVIEW 9720094

a III3IV4IV
45

HausmannKlinger2007

20

20

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34G7123

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3
21990~20123.2%2010~2012

2010Ffrench-

GDP15%

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GDP

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GDP

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151

GDPa

GDP

2000

80

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GDP

Ffrench-Davis2006122

GDPa

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20

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G D P

GDPGDP*GDPGDPa

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4GDP

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Marfn2005

2009a

Kaminsky

ReinhartVegh2004Ocampo2007

201011.8

2004~20081990~1994

1996~1997

2003~2007

2009a2010

2008~2009

191990~2009
GDP

GDP

R.Ffrench-DavisReforming Latin Americas Economies after Market


FundamentalismPalgrave Macmillan2006ECLAC

CEPAL REVIEW 102201012

153

1977~19811991~1994

1995~19972004~2007

Krugman

2000Rodrik1988Stiglitz2000Harberger

1985Heymann2000Ocampo2007

GDP

TFP9

Reisen2003

7Fanelli2003Frenkel2003Reisen2003

8CalvoMendoza2000

9GDPGDP

154

CEPAL REVIEW 102201012

1991~1994

1995~19972008~2009

Uthoff

Titelman1998

10

11

101

10Prasad2003Singh
2006
11ILO
Ffrench-Davis2010b

CEPAL REVIEW 102201012

155

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GDP
GDP

1.

GDPGDP

GDP

91990~2009

GDPGDPGDP*
R. Ffrench-DavisReforming Latin Americas Economies after Market
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156

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2007~20082070

2003

2008

207080

GDP15%1990

19988Ffrench-

Davis2010c

BourguignonWalton2007

2.

GDP

Ffrench-Davis2006III.1III.2De Long

Summers1991

3.

Ffrench-Davis

20063AizenmanMarion1999

Agosin2007

Easterly Servn2003

1998

CEPAL REVIEW 102201012

157

1998Rodrik2008

SMEs

GDP

4.

4/5

Ffrench-Davis2006

1990~19971998~2003GDP

5 12

90%1.9%

GDPFfrench-Davis2006

620102

12GDP

199019986.5%Ffrench-Davis
2010cVII.6
2.7%2010II.2

GDP

GDP

GDP

13
1320102
Ffrench-Davis2008

1.

Krugman2009Griffith-Jones

158

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OcampoStiglitz2009BlanchardDellAriccia

Mauro2010

3.

FfrenchDavis2010a

2009

MartnerTromben2004

2.

1/5

Williamson2000Agosin2007Rodrik

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GDPGDP

BlanchardDellAricciaMauro2010

Williamson2000

CEPAL REVIEW 102201012

159

2007

2070

GDP11

2010

4.

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25Ocampo2008

2090

(1)

StallingsStudart2005

(2)

160

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GDP199019987.1%1999

Ocampo2008Stiglitz

20083.8%

2000Williamson2003

2090

1990GDP

GDP

2009b

30

2090

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Magud

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2030

IMF

20081112

Calvo20082008

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200820089

2008

20091

2008914

1020%

AIG

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Maria Paula Carvajal

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165

Charles Kindleberger

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Minsky198225

10

166

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20083

2007820083

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200833~4

20078

20079

20089

10

a
b

AIG

H.4.12009

CEPAL REVIEW 9720094

167

a2008915
H.151997

7000

10

AIG

107

AIG

9101112

9000

200811

20091

1.3

GDP9%

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8~11

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168

CEPAL REVIEW 9720094

8000GDP6%

10

2102

10221

11

11

20088200918550

GDP6%

20092008

11

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20078

5~6

2008

2009

GDP1.5%GDP

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2008

2009

2009

1GDP0.6%2

2008

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1H.3200911.698
200888430

2130GDP3.8%

CEPAL REVIEW 9720094

169

2003~2007

2009

RathaMohopatraXu2008

1.

2003~2006

9.3%GDP3.8%

2006

2009I.1

GDP

3%2008

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2009I.12009

32008

2.1%2009I.1

3.1

, 1945~1980 = 100

Jos Antonio OcampoMarangela ParraCEPAL REVIEW79


LC/G.2200-P20034

170

CEPAL REVIEW 9720094

ECLAC

2008

200923

2008

2080

2070

21

2008

2009II.6

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CEPAL REVIEW 9720094

171

Von Braun2007

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2008

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Tovar2008Ocampo2007

172

CEPAL REVIEW 9720094

CEPAL REVIEW 9720094

173

20062007

20049

20062007

11301000

200410

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2007457

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2006

20062007

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2004

174

CEPAL REVIEW 9720094

20037~ 20046 = 100)

CEPAL REVIEW 9720094

175

2004

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210

102312.35%

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6BustilloVelloso (2009)

176

CEPAL REVIEW 9720094

EMBI =
a

CEPAL REVIEW 9720094

177

2070

GDP1

GDP

GDP1

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2008c

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2007

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2008b4

2008

178

CEPAL REVIEW 9720094

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2006

2006

CEPAL REVIEW 9720094

179

2003

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180
CEPAL REVIEW 9720094

CEPAL REVIEW 9720094

2000)

GDP

181

182

CEPAL REVIEW 9720094

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CEPAL REVIEW 102201012

Ramn Lpez


20

Ramn Lpez

rlopez@arec.umd.edu

186

CEPAL REVIEW 102201012

Krugman2006

Paul Krugman

Taylor2008

20

Farrell

10%20

Grant2005

8035%200750%

Saez2009

10%50%

1917~1928

10%1996~2007

40%49%40%50%

PickettySaez2003

20

Asif IslamAmparo Palacios

CEPAL REVIEW 102201012

187

JerzmanowskiNabar2008

PhilipponReshef2009

1.

30

20

1/5

Lpez

Stocking2009

320

2.

50

205040%21

20%

Ghertner Fripp

2007

188

CEPAL REVIEW 102201012

1947~2007

a 1972~2008

a
R.C. Feenstra, J. RomalisP. SchottUnited States imports, exports and tariff data, 19892001,
93872001http://www.internationaldata.org/

CEPAL REVIEW 102201012

189

1900~2004

Barbier2005

30

LpezStocking2009

(1)
2070/

de Janvry1975

20

NIC

SokoloffEngerman2000AcemogluJohnson

Robinson2001Khor2000

20

Krugman1994LallAlbaladejo2004
Noland1997

3.

NIC

190

CEPAL REVIEW 102201012

PPIa1913~2007

4
207080

(2)

2080

2080

Bosworth

Collins2008P anagariya2006Lpez
2008LallAlbaladejo2004
20
22070

Lpez2008
2%

3Rodrik200720

LevinsonTaylor2008

CEPAL REVIEW 102201012

191

1990~2008
10

5
4

20

8%3

192

CEPAL REVIEW 102201012

213500

1/3

1.11

50%

20002000~2007

20%2080

5%

4.

2090521-

-50%

5%

2090

108%~10%

67

20

1980~2006

EIA

CEPAL REVIEW 102201012

193

USDA

NGO

6
Da Motta20031991

Simpson

HuberRuitenbeckda Motta1998

TomanAyres2005

EngelLpez2008

194

CEPAL REVIEW 102201012

2003~2007

200625%

20092010

20

BohringerLoschel2003

LoschelZhang2002

The Kyoto Protocol

CO2

CEPAL REVIEW 102201012

195

1.

2080

2.

25

CaprioDemirguc-KuntKane2008

Sloan1997910

2080

AutorKatzKearney2006

AutorKatzKearney2006AutorLevyMurnane

2003Carddi Nardo2002

GordonDew-Becker2007

KaplanRauh2009

1%
2080

196

CEPAL REVIEW 102201012

2%

0.3%

198054%2006

5%15.5

47%20%

29

5%4%

5%
17%22.5%2007

3.

4003.5
1.5%1980~2006

55%50%

10%8%

10%20%

27%

30
2080

4.820075.211

1967~2005

CEPAL REVIEW 102201012

10 1961~2001

WIIDUNU-WIDER

11 1967~2007
2007

197

198

CEPAL REVIEW 102201012

BooneGirouardWanner
2001McConnellMosserPerez- Quiros
8

1999

1/8

202

208045%2004120%

2%~2.5%

Taylor2008

0.3%

4.

20

1.220800.45

20%

CEPAL REVIEW 102201012

199

2005~2007

8%~10%

10

BosworthCollins2008

2003~2007

CPI

20041

200441.25%2007
5%12

10

12 2001~2009

200

CEPAL REVIEW 102201012

1929

2020

20

CEPAL REVIEW 102201012

201

35%

20506091%2009

2002080

60%

18

2080

11

11

202

CEPAL REVIEW 102201012

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CEPAL REVIEW 78200212

Gustav RanisFrances Stewart

Gustav Ranis
Henry R. Luce

YCIAS
Frank Altschu

gustav.ranis@yale.edu

Frances Stewart

frances.stewart@queenelizabethhouse.oxford.ac.uk

206

CEPAL REVIEW 78200212

Al

Berry

RanisStewart Ramirez

2000

Albert Berry2002419

20

Tavneet Suri

Prateek Tandon
1UNDP

UNDP19909

10

2BerryUrrutia1976Berry

ed.1988

1. A

CEPAL REVIEW 78200212

207

a NGO:

HD

GDP

GNP

31991

208

CEPAL REVIEW 78200212

SchultzTansel1993

BRAC

Riddell 1995

Wood1994

AinsworthBeegleNyamete1995

2. B

Psacharopoulos199248

8AB

AB

5
6Barro1991BarroLee1993ab
7Michaely1977Krueger1978Ram1985
4Schultz (1975)Welch1970Rosenzweig1995

Rana1988Edwards1993

FosterRosenzweig1994

8AlesinaRodrik1994AlesinaPerotti1994

5Behrman19931996

PerssonTabellini1994BirdsallRoss Sabot1995

CEPAL REVIEW 78200212

3.

209

1970~1992
B

35~76
1960 ~1992A

1962~1982

A1:

A2

A3

A4

1970~1992
A

4.

1
3

1.75

B1

B2

B3

210

CEPAL REVIEW 78200212

1960 ~ 2000

21960~2000

UNDP

HDI9

9UNDP25
85

UNDP

2001

CEPAL REVIEW 78200212

211

2080

80

80

80

1960~20003

1960 ~ 2000

212

CEPAL REVIEW 78200212

HDEG1960 ~ 2000

UNDP

1990

23

20

801999

1960~2000

AB

10

3/4

10

CEPAL REVIEW 78200212

A1960~2000a,b

c1970~1980

a 1970~1980

70

10%

5%

UNDP

B1960~2000

a,b,c

a 1970~1980

70

10%

1%

213

214

CEPAL REVIEW 78200212

4%19902%

40

1980

20

38%199019%

19303/4Thorp1998

20602070Salvador Allende

2060

Raczynski1987

20%95%6~14

19777%19845%

81%Raczynski

1987

19727.3%

1.6%

19891.7%

Augusto Pinochet

Augusto Pinochet1973

20606%20

Augusto Pinochet

8016%

20600.47
11

1990

1978~19820.51 1986

2090

4.5%208070

2.1%1.2%

2060

1990~1999

2090

1975

11Riveros1998Berryed.199816
1969~1978

195020%

CEPAL REVIEW 78200212

215

40%Thorp19981948

2070

2080

2060

1988

70

30%

7%3%

2060~70

5%~6%

196076%198145%

0.5~0.6

6%

Maddison1992

2/320~2420%

20

2060

60

8198010

2070

13% 1999

18%5%

4.5%

2060

2060

1960~1980

3%905%

5966

2060

7.4%5.3%66%

671980731995~2000

83%106%

7660

120%23%49%

19606.8%1970

5%14%

6.2%19801.9%1999
1.2%

2080

2080

1983~19886%

5%

40%198042%

198636%80

30%Friedmann

Lustig Legovini19951983~1988

20601/3

1960~1999

2080

NAFTA

2090

19941998

6769

7577

901.25%(80

Thorp1998

)90

1970Luis Echeverra

1989~1993

216

CEPAL REVIEW 78200212

90%79%

3.2%5.4%

2090

PRONASOL

90-0.6%

80+0.3%90

Solidaridad

9075

90

86%98%

1995

90%2%

PRONOSOL

2060

206070

90

8090

196060
9.9%1966

206070

1970~1975

6%

60%

19605.6%

40%2070

197512.2%6065%

80%

85%1558

19706886%

1975~1983

Thorp1998

70

0.7%

80

2070

80

80

3.9%28%

1980~198630%1984

19886.4%

3.7%

2090

2080

1986~1990

4.2%

2.4%

90

6470

1995

5.7%

CEPAL REVIEW 78200212

217

3.1%1990

90

9%

198059196047

8%

94% 196066%

Anastasio Somoza2060

1984~1990

70Augusto Caldern Sandino

8040%

90

199070

1960

4.1%

47Thorp1998

20

60%

70

2070

6.3%1989

65%6

7.2%

22%3/4

2090

10%1965~19755

1990 ~1999

1979

0.3%

25%

198019815%

50%

23%

1960~2000

Berry1998

AB

1960

218

CEPAL REVIEW 78200212

20

80

90

80

20

2060

1975~1990

2090

21

2080

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1990~2005

Simone Cecchini Andras Uthoff

1990

Simone Cecchini

simone.cecchini@cepal.org

Andras.Uthoff

andras.uthoff@cepal.org

222

CEPAL REVIEW 9420084

1990~2005

25

1990~201515

1.B

20062008

2003

Sen1985

ECLAC

200637%1.74

13%7100

32005a

199048%

1522.5%9

2007d

15

1990
1

16

Irma ArriagadaReynaldo BajrajChristoph Ernst


Ernesto EspnolaJuan Carlos FeresMarco GalvnMartn

HopenhaynArturo LenFernando MedinaPablo Villatoro


Jorge RodrguezNora RuediJrgen Weller

KakwaniNeriSon 2006Nez

2007dbox I.1

RamrezCuesta2006

1990~2005

CEPAL REVIEW 9420084

223

1.

80%

2007a

2007c

16%7%Weller2006

2.

2007c

GDP

Islam2004Osmani

2002

2003

20078%20060.6

2007b2007

2003~2007

1990

2007d

1700

2007b

200548.5%

2006

4
5

2006

1990~2005

224

CEPAL REVIEW 9420084

18
2005a,b

E/WAP

Arriagada2004

2007a

200537%

2005b

20%

61%

1/5

76%

4.2~6.2

80%2

2.1~4

Sunkel2006

1990~2005

CEPAL REVIEW 9420084

225

2 182005a
a

2008

YL/E

YNL/N

(1)

Y/N

1990~2005

226

CEPAL REVIEW 9420084

WAPN

EAPWAP

EAPE/EAP=1-

(2)

Navarrete20058

1990~2005

(3)

UthoffVeraRuedi
2006

2006
8

9KakwaniNeriSon2006 1995~2004

1990~2005

CEPAL REVIEW 9420084

227

11

10

209016

53

12
1990

2. 

1.

1990

2005

10

11

2006

2005b

1990~2005

228

CEPAL REVIEW 9420084

16a
1989/1995~2001/2005

1990~2005

CEPAL REVIEW 9420084

229

* <1.02001~2005

3Y/NYL/EY/NE/N
Y/NYNL/N
VAP=[((PF-PI)/PI)*100]/AVAP
PFPIA

19891020027

1990~2005

230

CEPAL REVIEW 9420084

16
1989/1995~2001/2005

a
19891020027

1/3

12

123

2005

70%

1990~2005

CEPAL REVIEW 9420084

1~10,1990~2005a

a 19902005

1990~2005

231

232

CEPAL REVIEW 9420084

11%

81%1990~2005

3.

10%54%

2007a

16a1990~2005b

19902005

1997

1990~2005

CEPAL REVIEW 9420084

233

2010

13

2015
2020

2090

13
(Mason Lee2004)

1990~2005

234

CEPAL REVIEW 9420084

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CEPAL REVIEW 10120108

Daniel Sotelsek Leopoldo Laborda

GDP
TFP
1980~2004Malmquist

Daniel Sotelsek

daniel.sotelsek@uah.es

Leopoldo Laborda

leopoldo.laborda@uah.es

236

CEPAL REVIEW 10120108

1980~2004

DEA

1980~2004

25

1.

Solow1957

Abramovitz1986Baumol1986

Maddison1987

Solow

Barro1991BarroSala-i-Martin

1992MankiwRomerWeil1992

Quah

Romer1986

1993 1

Elas20011960

19947

UCSD

CILAS
IDBJos Luis

1tYit

Machinea

BarroSala-I-Martin1992

CEPAL REVIEW 10120108

237


40

0.5%

1980~2000Hofman

2001

0.3%

20

0.7%

TaskimZaim199723

19751990

0.37%0.38%

40%

OECD

Hofman

DowrickNguyen1989FreGrosskopf

200112

Norris1994

1980~2000

Ching-ChenYir-Hueih1999

SolimanoSoto2005

APEC19

1980

2080

GDP

MaudosSerranoPastor

Solimano

1999 Fre

Soto200535~36

GrosskopfNorris1994

2.

Lanteri2002
1970~2001

2200817~51

238

CEPAL REVIEW 10120108

2070

Silent

411971~1992

SpringCarlson1962

Boulding1966

Meadows1972

FreGrosskopfHernndez-Sancho2004

349

Elkins1993271

Kuznets

171990

Cole2007

2080Brundtland

CommissionWCED1987
3

WCED1987

Ball2005

2090

Denison1979

Grossman

Robinson1995

Krueger1995Shafik1994

MCP

ColeElliot

Shimamoto2005 Stern2004

FreGrosskopfPasurka2007

Ball2005382~386

Kumar2006

3
Markandya

1992

4Cole2007245

CEPAL REVIEW 10120108

239

1985~1995

Schuschny2007

CO2NOX

Fre

GrosskopfPasurka2007680

Schuschny2007

37

1.

td0t (qt ,xt)=A(t) d0(qt ,xt)

Fre

1994

Fisher1992Caves

ChristensenDiewert1982

tst

(3)
(1)

(4)

(2)
12d0s(qt ,xt)t
s1m0
st
1
FreGrosskopfRoos1998

st
Farrell4

240

CEPAL REVIEW 10120108

Schuschny200722~23

xtxs
FreGrosskopfRoos1994

2.

64
7

Birchenal

Murcia1997

1t

(5)

t+st

t+s

(6)

12
31

6
t
s

4tt+s

8Schuschny2007

J.A.Birchenal G.E. Murcia


Convergencia regional: una revisin del caso
colombianoNo. 69D.C.
1997

CEPAL REVIEW 10120108

241

1980~2004

2000
10

11
I18

2000

10

11

1980~2004

TFP
EFFCH
TECHCH
PECH
SECH
TFPCH
WDIGDF

242

CEPAL REVIEW 10120108

1.

1981~19821982~1983

1980~2004

10%

12

1981~19821986~1987
7%

121

20

1980~2004

TFP
EFFCH
TECHCH
PECH
SECH
TFPCH

CEPAL REVIEW 10120108

243

901996~1997

1998~1999

0.9720.993

2.

2.3%

19891994

1994

1995

2.8%

2002

0.7%

2090

2080

1.015

1.0061.023

244

CEPAL REVIEW 10120108

1983~19871989~1992

19871992

1994~1998

19985

1980~2004

1980~2004

CEPAL REVIEW 10120108

1980~2004

a 95%

245

246

CEPAL REVIEW 10120108

13

1992~2004

Quah19931997

LucyAykroyd

Pollard2002

1980~19921992~20041980~2004

1992~2004

3.

tt+s

18

IIIII

t+s

1980~200425

14

t+s=1

Wilcoxon15

13Quah1997

14BirchenalMurcia1997
t-t+s45
45

15nxi , yi

WW
H0

CEPAL REVIEW 10120108

247

P rietoZof o

1996

1980~2004

EESI

(7)

EA
GNP

EN

IV

1982198420022

1980~2004

248
CEPAL REVIEW 10120108

1980~2004

II

CEPAL REVIEW 10120108

249

III 1980~2004

250
CEPAL REVIEW 10120108

1980~2004

IV

CEPAL REVIEW 10120108

251

252

CEPAL REVIEW 10120108

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20

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2070

Devlin1979

60

Devlin

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Ral Prebisch

Adolfo

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Massad1983Devlin1979

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Fernando Fajnzylber

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Fajnzylber1981

curtailed industrializationempty

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Celso Furtado

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30

Furtado

Cardoso

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Furtado

CardosoPrebisch

Cardoso1977

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Furtado1978

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6Furtado1978

Cardoso19777

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Osvaldo Sunkel

Sunkel1980

Pinto

structural heterogeneityPinto1970

Sunkel

Sunkel198017

Pinto-Lahera1987~1995
19871233

Anbal Pinto

Eugenio Lahera Pinto

Pensamiento

Bielschowsky1998

Iberoamericano112080

2090

71986428PrebischGurrieri
29~33

260

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Rosenthal

Fajnzylber19831990

Rosenthal1988

2080

2090

Fajnzylber1988

Lahera1988Willmore1989

Gonzlez

HofmanBuitelaar1994

1988

Eyzaguirre1989

Kuwayama1989

Peres19931994Rosales1994

Mortimore1989

Devlin1989

Fuentes1994

Rosenthal1993

IMF

20

Meller1989

Ramos

1989

Fajnzylber1991

Lahera1990

Enzo Faletto

Faletto19881989

Graciarena1988
Wolfe 19902090

8Lpez Cordovez1987Harker1987Ortega

1988Schejtman1988Dirven1993

209021Caldern

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261

HopenhaynOttone1994

Jovel1989

BustamanteTorres1990

2090

Gligo1990Durn de la Fuente

1991Valenzuela

1991The polluter must pay

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Participation and the environmentGligo1995

Dourojeanni1994

Snchez Albavera19931995

2090

20

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Fernando Fajnzylber

Altimir19901994FeresLen1990

Wolfe1991

Durston1988

20

Franco1989Sojo1990Rodrguez Noboa

1991CohenFranco1992Hopenhayn

1992

Krawczyk 19901993LpezPollack

1989Arriagada19901994Almeras

1994Durston19921993

Ffrench-Davis1988

Tokman1988Guerguil1988Infante

Klein1991Caldern1993Rosenbluth

Sunkel1989

1994

Sunkel

Uthoff1995

Zuleta1990

2090

Uthoff

Anbal Pinto

20Sunkel

1989

1991

262

CEPAL REVIEW

19959Pinto

Pinto

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Pinto

Altimir-Bajraj1996~20088
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Eugenio Lahera

19981050

Oscar Altimir

75Ral Prebisch2002

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Ral Prebisch

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Reynaldo BajrajAltimir

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Bielschowsky1998

Katz1998

200712

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2090Jos Antonio Ocampo

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desarrolloAldo Ferrer1998Amrica Latina


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9Oscar Altimir20

2090

60

Assael1998

1976~1983/
1984~1988

1989~19931994~1996

Sunkel1998

Reynaldo Bajraj1976

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Urquidi1998

1987
BajrajCELADE
1997~2003

2050
2001

CEPAL REVIEW

263

Ral Prebisch

100Ral Prebisch

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Revista de la CEPAL

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1970~1996

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2007Ral

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2005

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1995~2004

Weller2001

2090

264

CEPAL REVIEW

Fernando Fajnzylber

Paunovic2005

Jimnez

1992Juan Carlos Tedesco

Tromben20062003~2007

10

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Ocampo2007

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2006

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2090

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CEPAL REVIEW

265

12

JimnezCuadros2003

Uthoff2002

2006

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2006

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Weller2007

Titelman1999

Mesa-Lago19962004

20

90

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2009

Andr Hofman

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Miguel Torres

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11

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11www.cepal.org/revista/default.asp?idioma=IN

266

CEPAL REVIEW

Snchez2009

Daz de Sarralde2010

Boamah2011

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MounseyPolius2011

20094

972007

Ocampo2009

Ffrench-Davis2009

Machinea

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2009

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CEPAL REVIEW

267

20052010

4100

2005~2009

122005

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50

2010bAlicia Brcena

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