PROBLEM:

A small survey area has been divided into 4 zones and limited survey has resulted in the following
matrix:

O\D
1
2
3
4

1
3
4
2
9

2
5
1
4
12

3
8
9
2
8

4
12
10
7
4

Estimates for the future total trips ends for each zone are given below:

Zones
1
2
3
4

Estimated Future Origins

Estimated Future Destinations

54
11
108
33

56
24
60
66

REQUIRED:
Estimate future inter-zonal movements using the:
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.

Constant Factor Method

Average Factor Method
Detroit Method
Fratar Method
Furness Method

SOLUTION:
1. Constant Factor Method
Formula: tij = tij * E
E=T/t

Present
O\D
1
2

1
3
4

where tij
tij
E

2
5
1

3
8
9

: future number of trips from i and j

: present number of trips from i and j
: constant factor derived by dividing the number of
trip expected in the survey area by the existing
number of trips.

4
12
10

gi
28
24

3
4
aj
Future
O\D

2
9
18

4
12
22

2
8
27

7
4
33

15
33
100

Gi

1
2
3
4
Aj
Estimates
O\D
1
2
3
4
aj

54

11

108

33

1
6.18
8.24
4.12
18.54
37.08

2
10.30
2.06
8.24
24.72
45.32

3
16.48
18.54
4.12
16.48
55.62

4
24.72
20.60
14.42
8.24
67.98

56
24
60
66
206

E = T/t = 2.06

gi
57.68
49.44
30.9
67.98
206

2. Average Factor Method

Formula: tij = tij * (Ei + Ej)/2
Ei = Gi / gi
Ej = Aj / aj

Present
O\D
1
2
3
4
aj
Ej
Future
O\D
1
2
3
4
Aj

where tij
tij
Gi
gi
Aj
aj

: future trip from zone i and j

: present trip from zone i and j
: future production on zone i
: present production of zone i
: future attraction of zone j
: present attraction of j

1
3
4
2
9
18
3

2
5
1
4
12
22
0.5

3
8
9
2
8
27
4

4
12
10
7
4
33
1

gi

Gi

28
24
15
33
100

54

11

108

33

56
24
60
66
206

iteration 1
O\D
1
1
7.5
2
8

2
6.25
0.75

3
24
22.5

4
18
10

gi
55.75
41.25

Ei
2
1
4
2

Ei
1.004
0.582

3
4

7
22.5
45
1.200

9
15
31
0.355

8
24
78.5
1.376

17.5
6
51.5
0.641

41.5
67.5
206

1.446
0.978

iteration 2
O\D
1
1
8.267
2
7.127
3
9.260
4
24.500
aj
49.154
Ej
1.099

2
4.248
0.351
8.103
9.995
22.697
0.485

3
28.563
22.023
11.286
28.243
90.116
1.198

4
14.807
6.113
18.257
4.856
44.033
0.749

gi
55.885
35.615
46.907
67.593
206

Ei
1.002
0.674
1.279
0.976

iteration 3
O\D
1
1
8.683
2
6.316
3
11.009
4
25.419
aj
51.427
Ej
1.050

2
3.158
0.203
7.146
7.301
17.808
0.618

3
31.427
20.617
13.981
30.713
96.738
1.116

4
12.967
4.350
18.518
4.190
40.026
0.824

gi
56.235
31.488
50.655
67.623
206

iteration 4
O\D
1
1
8.882
2
5.723
3
12.300
4
25.750
aj
52.655
Ej
1.026

2
2.547
0.140
6.439
5.818
14.945
0.736

3
33.191
19.366
16.085
32.132
100.773
1.072

4
11.802
3.451
18.601
3.772
37.627
0.877

iteration 5
O\D
1
1
8.962
2
5.329
3
13.214
4
25.798
aj
53.303
Ej
1.013

2
2.202
0.110
5.985
4.987
13.284
0.828

3
34.257
18.480
17.652
32.933
103.322
1.045

iteration 6
O\D
1
1
8.985
2
5.079

2
2.004
0.095

3
34.895
17.909

aj
Ej

10.22
10.91
32.29
8.89

Percentage Error
32.03
19.01
53.17
2.12
9.97
41.08
33.37
17.68

17.74
38.87
4.33
19.07

Ei
0.996
0.762
1.184
0.976

5.03
11.38
18.89
3.75

Percentage Error
25.66
10.03
42.07
6.38
11.81
23.88
26.95
8.74

12.43
28.83
1.43
13.71

gi
56.422
28.681
53.425
67.472
206

Ei
0.993
0.837
1.123
0.978

2.29
9.39
11.73
1.30

Percentage Error
19.32
5.61
31.01
6.07
9.89
15.05
20.32
4.62

8.99
20.67
0.45
9.98

4
11.032
2.957
18.602
3.499
36.091
0.914

gi
56.453
26.877
55.453
67.217
206

Ei
0.992
0.893
1.082
0.982

0.90
6.88
7.43
0.19

Percentage Error
13.57
3.21
21.36
4.58
7.05
9.74
14.29
2.50

6.52
14.31
0.01
7.24

4
10.516
2.672

gi
56.399
25.756

Ei
0.993
0.932

Percentage Error
0.25
9.00
1.86
4.70
13.95
3.09

4.68
9.63

3
4

13.842
25.733
53.639
1.007

5.716
4.513
12.328
0.892

18.775
33.381
104.960
1.029

18.568
3.318
35.074
0.941

56.901
66.944
206

1.054
0.986

iteration 7
O\D
1
1
8.983
2
4.923
3
14.266
4
25.638
aj
53.810
Ej
1.004

2
1.889
0.087
5.564
4.238
11.777
0.934

3
35.277
17.558
19.558
33.629
106.022
1.019

4
10.168
2.502
18.525
3.196
34.391
0.960

gi
56.316
25.070
57.912
66.701
206

Ei
0.994
0.957
1.036
0.989

iteration 8
O\D
1
1
8.974
2
4.827
3
14.548
4
25.549
aj
53.897
Ej
1.002

2
1.821
0.082
5.481
4.076
11.460
0.960

3
35.507
17.347
20.093
33.766
106.713
1.012

4
9.934
2.398
18.484
3.115
33.931
0.973

gi
56.235
24.654
58.606
66.505
206

iteration 9
O\D
1
1
8.964
2
4.767
3
14.735
4
25.476
aj
53.942
Ej
1.001

2
1.781
0.079
5.436
3.979
11.275
0.976

3
35.647
17.222
20.453
33.841
107.163
1.008

4
9.777
2.334
18.450
3.060
33.621
0.982

iteration 10
O\D
1
1
8.955
2
4.731
3
14.858
4
25.421
aj
53.965
Ej
1.001

2
1.756
0.078
5.412
3.920
11.166
0.985

3
35.733
17.147
20.693
33.883
107.456
1.005

4
9.672
2.293
18.425
3.024
33.413
0.988

3. Detroit Method
Formula: tij = tij * (Ei * Ej)/E
Ei = Gi / gi

where tij
tij
Gi

4.75
0.25

4.50
9.50

6.36
1.36

0.18
5.19

0.02
3.07
3.06
0.37

Percentage Error
5.74
1.09
8.79
1.96
2.66
4.17
6.09
0.74

3.31
6.37
0.23
3.66

Ei
0.996
0.973
1.024
0.992

0.10
1.96
1.98
0.35

Percentage Error
3.58
0.65
5.43
1.20
1.50
2.74
3.83
0.41

2.30
4.16
0.22
2.55

gi
56.168
24.402
59.075
66.356
206

Ei
0.997
0.984
1.016
0.995

0.11
1.23
1.29
0.28

Percentage Error
2.21
0.39
3.33
0.72
0.82
1.79
2.38
0.22

1.58
2.70
0.18
1.75

gi
56.116
24.248
59.389
66.247
206

Ei
0.998
0.990
1.010
0.996

0.10
0.77
0.84
0.21

Percentage Error
1.37
0.24
2.04
0.43
0.43
1.17
1.49
0.12

1.07
1.75
0.14
1.19

: future trip from zone i and j

: present trip from zone i and j
: future production on zone i

Ej = Aj / aj
E=T/t
Present
O\D
1
2
3
4
aj
Ej
Future
O\D
1
2
3
4
Aj

gi
Aj
aj

: present production of zone i

: future attraction of zone j
: present attraction of j

1
3
4
2
9
18
3

2
5
1
4
12
22
0.5

3
8
9
2
8
27
4

4
12
10
7
4
33
1

gi

Gi

28
24
15
33
100

Ei
2
1
4
2
2.06

56
24
60
66
206

54

11

108

33

iteration 1
O\D
1
1
8.738
2
5.825
3
11.650
4
26.214
aj
52.427
Ej
1.030

2
2.427
0.243
3.883
5.825
12.379
0.889

3
31.068
17.476
15.534
31.068
95.146
1.135

4
11.650
4.854
13.592
3.883
33.981
0.971

gi
53.883
28.398
44.660
66.990
193.932

Ei
1.039
0.845
1.343
0.985
1.062

iteration 2
O\D
1
1
8.806
2
4.774
3
15.177
4
25.043
aj
53.799
Ej
1.004

2
2.110
0.172
4.365
4.801
11.448
0.961

3
34.503
15.782
22.301
32.709
105.296
1.026

4
11.070
3.751
16.695
3.498
35.014
0.942

gi
56.489
24.479
58.538
66.050
205.556

Ei
0.991
0.980
1.025
0.999
1.002

iteration 3
O\D
1
1
8.743
2
4.688
3
15.581
4
25.063
aj
54.074
Ej
0.999

2
2.006
0.161
4.289
4.600
11.057
0.995

3
35.008
15.837
23.395
33.451
107.690
1.003

4
10.321
3.458
16.093
3.287
33.159
0.995

gi
56.077
24.145
59.358
66.401
205.980

Ei
0.999
0.994
1.011
0.994
1.000

iteration 4
O\D
1
1
8.718

2
1.993

3
35.057

4
10.256

gi
56.023

Ei
1.000

0.77
18.05
30.27
4.47

Percentage Error
13.06
11.06
29.30
9.69
12.39
43.56
17.58
5.28

4.98
22.73
22.83
9.93

0.71
1.80
2.66
0.08

Percentage Error
4.95
1.46
5.99
0.35
1.72
4.90
4.19
2.27

6.77
7.79
3.61
6.03

0.28

Percentage Error
0.66
0.14

0.63

2
3
4

4.653
15.726
24.875
53.972
1.001

0.160
4.313
4.548
11.014
0.999

15.786
23.714
33.341
107.898
1.001

3.421
16.187
3.251
33.116
0.997

24.019
59.940
66.016
205.999

0.999
1.001
1.000
1.000

iteration 5
O\D
1
1
8.719
2
4.651
3
15.750
4
24.882
aj
54.002
Ej
1.000

2
1.989
0.159
4.312
4.542
11.002
1.000

3
35.075
15.788
23.760
33.365
107.988
1.000

4
10.216
3.406
16.147
3.239
33.008
1.000

gi
55.999
24.005
59.968
66.027
206.000

Ei
1.000
1.000
1.001
1.000
1.000

aj
Ej

0.75
0.93
0.75

0.01
0.03
0.15
0.03

1.12
0.56
1.12

Percentage Error
0.17
0.05
0.21
0.01
0.03
0.19
0.15
0.07

4. Fratar Method
Formula: tij = tij * (Gi / gi) * (Aj / aj) * [ktik / k ( Ak / ak) tik]
where tij
tij
Gi
gi
Aj
aj
k
Present
O\D
1
2
3
4
aj
Ej
Future
O\D
1
2
3
4
Aj

: future trip from zone i and j

: present trip from zone i and j
: future production on zone i
: present production of zone i
: future attraction of zone j
: present attraction of j
: total zones

1
3
4
2
9
18
3

2
5
1
4
12
22
0.5

3
8
9
2
8
27
4

4
12
10
7
4
33
1

gi

Gi

28
24
15
33
100

54

11

108

33

56
24
60
66
206

iteration 1
O\D
1
1
9.081
2
4.923
3
15.652
4
25.826

2
2.523
0.205
5.217
5.739

3
32.288
14.769
20.870
30.609

4
12.108
4.103
18.261
3.826

gi
56.000
24.000
60.000
66.000

Ei
2
1
4
2

Ei
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000

0.32
1.36
0.33

1.09
0.59
1.09

0.39
0.43
0.25
0.37

aj
Ej

55.482
0.973

13.684
0.804

98.536
1.096

38.298
0.862

206.000

iteration 2
O\D
1
1
8.731
2
4.660
3
15.749
4
24.912
aj
54.051
Ej
0.999

2
2.003
0.160
4.336
4.572
11.071
0.994

3
34.959
15.742
23.648
33.249
107.598
1.004

4
10.306
3.438
16.267
3.267
33.279
0.992

gi
56.000
24.000
60.000
66.000
206.000

Ei
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000

3.85
5.35
0.62
3.54

Percentage Error
20.59
8.27
21.83
6.59
16.90
13.31
20.33
8.63

14.88
16.20
10.92
14.60

iteration 3
O\D
1
1
8.719
2
4.650
3
15.758
4
24.871
aj
53.999
Ej
1.000

2
1.989
0.159
4.314
4.540
11.003
1.000

3
35.076
15.785
23.772
33.351
107.984
1.000

4
10.216
3.405
16.155
3.238
33.015
1.000

gi
56.000
24.000
60.000
66.000
206.000

Ei
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000

0.14
0.20
0.06
0.16

Percentage Error
0.69
0.33
0.75
0.27
0.49
0.53
0.71
0.31

0.88
0.94
0.69
0.90

iteration 4
O\D
1
1
8.719
2
4.650
3
15.760
4
24.871
aj
54.000
Ej
1.000

2
1.989
0.159
4.314
4.538
11.000
1.000

3
35.081
15.787
23.777
33.355
107.999
1.000

4
10.211
3.404
16.149
3.236
33.001
1.000

gi
56.000
24.000
60.000
66.000
206.000

Ei
1.000
1.000
1.000
1.000

0.00
0.00
0.01
0.00

Percentage Error
0.02
0.01
0.03
0.01
0.02
0.02
0.03
0.01

0.05
0.05
0.04
0.05

5. Furness Method
Formula: tij = tij * (Gi / gi)
tij = tij * Aj/ trips attracted to j in the first iteration

tij = tij * Gi/ trips produced by i in the second iteration

Future
O\D
1
2
3
4
Aj

Gi
56
24
60
66
206

54

11

108

33

iteration 1
O\D
1
1
6
2
4
3
8
4
18
aj
36

2
10
1
16
24
51

3
16
9
8
16
49

4
24
10
28
8
70

iteration 2
O\D
1
1
9.000
2
6.000
3
12.000
4
27.000
aj
54.000

2
2.157
0.216
3.451
5.176
11.000

3
35.265
19.837
17.633
34.939
107.673

4
11.314
4.714
13.200
3.771
33.000

gi
57.736
30.767
46.284
70.887
205.673

iteration 3
O\D
1
1
8.729
2
4.680
3
15.556
4
25.139
aj
54.105

2
2.092
0.168
4.474
4.820
11.554

3
34.205
15.474
22.858
32.530
105.067

4
10.974
3.677
17.112
3.511
35.275

iteration 4
O\D
1
1
8.712
2
4.671
3
15.526
4
25.090
aj
54.000

2
1.992
0.160
4.259
4.589
11.000

3
35.160
15.906
23.496
33.129
107.690

iteration 5
O\D
1
1
8.692

2
1.987

3
35.078

gi
56
24
60
66
206

50.00
50.00
50.00
50.00

Percentage Error
78.43 120.41
78.43 120.41
78.43 120.41
78.43 118.37

52.86
52.86
52.86
52.86

gi
56.000
24.000
60.000
66.000
206.000

3.01
21.99
29.64
6.89

Percentage Error
3.01
3.01
21.99
21.99
29.64
29.64
6.89
6.89

3.01
21.99
29.64
6.89

4
10.266
3.440
16.008
3.285
33.000

gi
56.130
24.178
59.290
66.092
205.690

0.19
0.19
0.19
0.19

Percentage Error
4.79
2.79
4.79
2.79
4.79
2.79
4.79
1.84

6.45
6.45
6.45
6.45

4
10.243

gi
56.000

0.23

Percentage Error
0.23
0.23

0.23

2
3
4
aj

4.637
15.712
25.055
54.096

0.159
4.310
4.582
11.039

15.789
23.778
33.082
107.727

3.415
16.200
3.280
33.138

24.000
60.000
66.000
206.000

0.73
1.20
0.14

0.73
1.20
0.14

0.73
1.20
0.14

0.73
1.20
0.14