MARKET RESEARCH

Nov 11th Nov 15th

SPOTLIGHT
Portuguese Inflation Rate

Portugal emerges from recession

The Portuguese main index closed on Friday almost at the same level it had opened on Monday, with high oscillations in the meantime. This week was particularly good on economic issues, with the National Statistics Institute (INE) announcing on Thursday that Portugal had officially emerged from recession. Portuguese GDP grew 0.2% (QoQ), while prices fell 0.2% in October (YoY). INE also stated that between July and September, domestic exports amounted to 11.6 billion euros, an increase of 5.8% (YoY).

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INDEXES PERFORMANCE
Nov 11
PSI 20 STOXX 50 FTSE 100 DAX CAC 40 NIKKEI 225 HANG SENG
6.309,65 3.052,83 6.728,37 9.107,86 4.290,14 14.269,84 23.069,85

European Markets closes mixed

6.319,76 3.054,53 6.693,44 9.168,69 4.292,23 15.165,92 23.032,15

Nov 12
6.383,20 3.034,68 6.726,79 9.076,48 4.263,78 14.588,68 22.901,41

Nov 13
6.322,29 3.021,17 6.630,00 9.054,83 4.239,94 14.567,16 22.463,83

Nov 14
6.324,35 3.053,69 6.666,13 9.149,66 4.283,91 14.876,41 22.649,15

Nov 15 Wkly Chg

-0,05% 0,65% -0,22% 1,00% 0,75% 7,66% 1,27%

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CURRENCIES
Nov 11
EUR/USD EUR/CHF EUR/GBP EUR/JPY EUR/YUAN AUD/JPY
1,341 1,233 0,839 132,940 8,168 92,860

Nov 12
1,344 1,233 0,846 133,800 8,188 92,620

Nov 13
1,348 1,232 0,841 133,820 8,220 92,920

Nov 14
1,345 1,235 0,838 134,750 8,193 93,280

Nov 15 Wkly Chg

1,350 1,235 0,837 135,220 8,223 93,890

1,00% 0,24% 0,31% 2,12% 1,00% 0,99%

European equities closed mixed, but rose on an overall basis. Lawmakers in Brussels reached a last-ditch deal on the European Union's (EU) 2014 budget after 16 hours of talks, cutting spending by nearly 6 percent from last year. Relevant economic indicators related to the Euro Zone were issued this week, with great emphasis to the inflation rate, which dropped 0.1% (MoM), while the GDP grew by a seasonally adjusted 0.1% in Q3, below expectations of a 0.14% growth. Eurostat also announced that industrial production grew 1.1% (YoY), contradicting analysts expectations of a 1.62% decrease. Lastly, U.K. inflation slowed to 2.2% (YoY), falling more than forecasted, while the jobless rate fell to 7.6%, the lowest level since May 2009.

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Nikkei 225 climbs more than 7%

Nov 12
0,123% 0,218% 0,322% 0,501% 0,074%

REFERENCE RATES
Nov 11 Euribor Euribor Euribor Euribor Eonia 1M 3M 6M 12M
0,122% 0,218% 0,322% 0,502% 0,076%

Nov 13
0,123% 0,218% 0,320% 0,500% 0,070%

Nov 14
0,123% 0,217% 0,319% 0,496% 0,076%

Nov 15
0,123% 0,218% 0,318% 0,496% 0,079%

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BOND YIELDS
Nov 11 Portugal 6M Portugal 5Y Portugal 10Y Spain 10Y France 10Y Italy 10Y Germany 10Y UK 10Y
1,460% 4,798% 5,832% 4,095% 2,297% 4,121% 1,753% 2,806%

Nov 12
1,457% 4,886% 5,925% 4,107% 2,329% 4,144% 1,788% 2,805%

Nov 13
1,437% 4,914% 5,905% 4,103% 2,284% 4,119% 1,737% 2,801%

Nov 14
1,457% 4,827% 5,917% 4,065% 2,247% 4,067% 1,702% 2,748%

Nov 15
1,436% 4,825% 5,938% 4,084% 2,255% 4,098% 1,709% 2,747%

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Japanese equity achieved a significant upswing during this week, after the Feds stimulus program was not slowed. However, Japanese economic data was not completely positive.. The economy grew 0.5% in Q3, slowing from a 0.9% expansion in the previous quarter amid weakness in exports and as consumer spending eased. Core machinery orders and the consumer confidence fell more than expected, while industrial production rose 1.3% in September recovering from the decrease of 0.9% in the preceding month. In the Chinese front the target for next years growth was cut to 7% signaling the government's determination to push through structural reforms and steer the economy on to a more sustainable path. Meanwhile, in Australia the wage price index fell 0.5% last quarter from 0.7% registered in the preceding quarter, surprising analysts, which expected the index to sustain its previous level.

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SPOTLIGHT
US Industrial Production

S&P 500 on longest win streak in 9 months

Last week US stock markets rose every day, except on Tuesday posting a sixth week of record-clearing gains. Investors seem to be embracing the signals sent by Janet Yellen that the Fed would continue its monetary stimulus. However, U.S. government debt is becoming increasingly perilous to options traders who are pushing up the cost to protect against sudden losses by the most in a year, even as Fed stimulus suppresses volatility. Moodys decided to downgrade its rating on four major U.S. banks to reflect the reduced chances of a government rescue in future: Goldman Sachs, JP Morgan Chase & Co, Morgan Stanley and Bank of New York Mellon. In the economic front, U.S. industrial production slipped in October, though underlying figures suggest steady demand for many factory goods. Moreover, initial jobless claims fell to 339k last week, falling short of market expectations of 11k decrease to 330k.

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INDEXES PERFORMANCE
Nov 11
S&P 500 DJIA NQ 100 S&P Lac 40
1.771,89 15.783,10 3.362,98 3.699,48

Nov 12
1.767,69 15.750,67 3.365,23 3.672,97

Nov 13
1.782,00 15.821,63 3.405,56 3.700,16

Nov 14
1.790,62 15.876,22 3.415,14 3.772,57

Nov 15 Wkly Chg

1.798,18 15.961,70 3.422,58 3.815,41

1,56% 1,27% 1,66% 2,58%

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CURRENCIES
Nov 11
USD/JPY USD/YUAN AUD/USD GBP/USD USD/CHF USD/CAD
99,160 6,091 0,936 1,599 0,920 1,047

Latin America releases negative data

Nov 15 Wkly Chg
100,190 6,132 0,937 1,612 0,915 1,044 100,220 6,092 0,931 1,605 0,918 1,047

Nov 12
99,570 6,092 0,930 1,589 0,917 1,049

Nov 13
99,240 6,093 0,936 1,604 0,914 1,045

Nov 14

1,12% -0,10% -0,11% 0,66% -0,74% -0,38%

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COMMODITIES
-0,70% 2,64% 3,18% -1,00%
Crude Oil WTI Natural Gas Crude Oil Brent Corn

0,12% -3,28% -2,67% -2,49%

Gold Silver Copper Sugar

Mexican industrial output slumped in September by the most in 9 months, on weakness in manufacturing, construction and utilities - a worrying sign amid a nascent recovery in Latin America's No. 2 economy. Brazilian retail sales rose less than forecasted in September, as the central bank carries out the worlds biggest interest-rate increase to tame inflation. Argentina's government said on Friday that consumer prices rose 10.5% in October from a year earlier, contradicting private-sector estimates that indicated that the inflation rate is two to three times higher than the one the state is reporting.

Gap between Brent and WTI widens

Last week, despite the announcement that the Fed will continue its stimulus, WTI prices keep dropping as a supply report revealed that the U.S. economy is awash in that raw material. On the other hand, Brent rose after the meeting between Iran and other producers did not result in a deal on the nuclear program. Natural gas prices shot up amid forecasts of cold weather in U.S. On the metals front, copper and silver fell due to the uncertainty, before Thursday, about the future of Feds monetary policy. Lastly, sugar fell on expectation that India, one of the worlds biggest producers, will increase its production.

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US TREASUR Y YIELDS
Nov 11 US 3M US 1Y US 10 Y US 30 Y
0,063% 0,108% 2,768% 3,872%

Nov 12
0,063% 0,109% 2,774% 3,857%

Nov 13
0,076% 0,134% 2,716% 3,826%

Nov 14
0,076% 0,125% 2,694% 3,794%

Nov 15
0,079% 0,125% 2,703% 3,796%

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Beatriz Fougo

Carlos Pereira

Catarina Borges

David Novo

Jorge Rodrigues

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