Richard Suttmeier is the Chief Market Strategist at www.ValuEngine.com. ValuEngine is a fundamentally-based quant research firm in Melbourne, FL.

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Nov. 20, 2013 Additional Upside Appears Limited To 3% Among The Major Averages

The yield on the US Treasury 10-Year reached 2.792% last Tuesday and is sliding down its 50-day SMA at 2.672%. The US Treasury 30-Year bond reached 3.887% last Tuesday vs. its year to date high at 3.94% set on Aug. 22. My monthly pivot is 3.814% with the 50-day SMA at 3.732%. The weekly chart favors a higher 10-Year yield given a weekly close above its five-week MMA at 2.677%. The weekly chart favors a higher 30-year yield given a weekly close above its five-week MMA at 3.749%. 10-Year Note (2.707) Daily, monthly and semiannual value levels are 2.767, 2.829 and 3.227 with weekly, annual, quarterly and annual risky levels at 2.557, 2.476, 2.252 and 1.981. 30-Year Bond (3.797) Daily and semiannual value levels are 3.831 and 4.807 with a monthly pivot at 3.814 and weekly, quarterly and annual risky levels at 3.682, 3.487 and 3.014. Comex gold has a neutral daily chart with its 50-day SMA at $1313.8 and the 200-day SMA at $1402.3. The weekly chart is negative with its five-week MMA at $1303.6. Crude oil has a neutral daily chart with the 200-day SMA at $98.58. The weekly chart is negative but oversold with its five-week MMA at $97.53 and the 200-week SMA at $91.79. The euro vs. the dollar has a neutral daily chart with its 50-day and 200-day SMAs at 1.3539 and 1.3217. The weekly chart is neutral with its five-week MMA at 1.3502 and 200-week SMA at 1.3311. Comex Gold ($1274.8) Daily and monthly value levels are $1251.1 and $1171.8 with a weekly pivot at $1288.9 and quarterly and annual risky levels at $1435.6, $1599.9 and $1852.1. Nymex Crude Oil ($93.36) My weekly value level is are $91.41 with a daily pivot at $93.17 and monthly, semiannual, quarterly and annual risky levels at $105.04, $109.84, $114.36 and $115.23. The Euro (1.3537) Monthly, annual, quarterly and semiannual value levels are 1.3428, 1.3257, 1.2805, 1.2756 and 1.2477 with a daily pivot at 1.3519 and weekly and annual risky levels at 1.3581 and 1.4295. The Dow Industrial Average has a positive but overbought daily chart with the 50-day SMA at 15,445.86 and its Nov. 18 all-time intra-day high at 16,030.28. The S&P 500 has a positive but overbought daily chart with its 50-day SMA at 1728.35 and its Nov. 18 all-time intra-day high at 1802.33, which was a test of my monthly risky level at 1802.0. The Nasdaq will have a negative daily chart profile with a close below the 21-day SMA at 3933.66 with its Nov. 18 multi-year intra-day high at 3994.97. The Dow Transportation Average has a positive but overbought daily chart with its 50-day SMA at 6811.39 and its Nov. 18 all-time intra-day high at 7245.43. The Russell 2000 has a neutral

daily chart profile with the index below its 21-day SMA at 1106.88 and the 50-day SMA at 1088.36 and its Oct. 30 all-time high at 1123.26. The weekly chart for Dow Industrials is positive but overbought with its five-week MMA at 15,637.38. The weekly chart for the S&P 500 is positive but overbought with its five-week MMA at 1752.49. The weekly chart for the Nasdaq is positive but overbought with its five-week MMA at 3883.84. The weekly chart for Dow Transports is positive but overbought with its five-week MMA at 6934.41. The weekly chart for the Russell 2000 is positive but overbought with its five-week MMA at 1094.02. So far the major equity averages have failed at tests of my monthly risky level at 1802.0 on the S&P 500 and my quarterly risky level at 7205 on Dow Transports. This weeks value levels are 15,624 Dow Industrials, 1782.6 S&P 500 with a weekly pivot at 7126 Dow Transports and weekly risky levels at 4015 Nasdaq and 1126.52 Russell 2000. Semiannual, quarterly or monthly pivots are 1743.5 and 1802.0 S&P 500, 3759 Nasdaq, 7104, 7205 and 6927 Dow Transports and 1089.42 Russell 2000. Monthly, quarterly and semiannual risky levels are 16,162, 16,775 and 16,490 Dow Industrials, 1853.8 S&P 500, 4014 and 4025 Nasdaq and 1133.14 and 1163.21 Russell 2000. If the stock bubble pops the risk is to my annual pivots / value levels at 12,696 Dow Industrials, 1348.3 S&P 500, 2806 Nasdaq, 5469 Dow Transports, and 809.54 Russell 2000. Daily Dow: (15,967) Weekly, semiannual and annual value levels are 15,624, 14,724 and 12,696 with the Nov. 18 all-time intra-day high at 16,030.28, and daily, monthly, semiannual and quarterly risky levels at 16,154, 16,162, 16,490 and 16,775. S&P 500 (1787.9) Weekly, semiannual and annual value levels are 1782.6, 1743.5, 1606.9, 1400.7 and 1348.3 with a monthly pivot at 1802.0, the Nov. 18 all-time intra-day high at 1802.33, and daily and quarterly risky levels at 1819.0 and 1853.8. NASDAQ (3932) Semiannual and annual value levels are 3759, 3668 and 2806 with the Nov. 18 multi-year intra-day high at 3994.97, and weekly, monthly, quarterly and daily risky levels at 4015, 4014, 4025 and 4031. NASDAQ 100 (NDX) (3378) Semiannual and annual value levels are 3304 and 2463 with the Nov. 19 multi-year intra-day high at 3429.20, and daily, monthly, weekly and quarterly risky levels at 3453, 3425, 3450 and 3477. Dow Transports (7115) Monthly and annual value levels are 6927, 5925 and 5469 with semiannual, weekly and quarterly pivots at 7104, 7126 and 7205 and the Nov. 18 all-time intra-day high at 7245.43. Russell 2000 (1101.38) Semiannual and annual value levels are 1089.42, 860.25 and 809.54 with Oct. 30 all time multi-year intra-day high at 1123.26, and daily, weekly, monthly and quarterly risky levels at 1131.87, 1126.52, 1133.14 and 1163.21. The SOX (497.88) My annual value level is 338.03 with weekly and daily risky levels at 509.72 and 510.87, the Oct. 31 multi-year intra-day high at 510.17, and monthly, quarterly and semiannual risky levels at 519.72, 514.87 and 533.56. Dow Utilities: (502.58) Daily and semiannual value levels are 501.94 and 481.92 with weekly, monthly, quarterly, semiannual and annual risky levels at 509.65, 514.62, 520.55, 523.33 and 540.37. To learn more about ValuEngine check out www.ValuEngine.com. Any comments or questions contact me at RSuttmeier@gmail.com.