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GICS Sector Consumer Staples Sub-Industry Packaged Foods & Meats Key Stock Statistics (Source S&P, Vickers, company reports) 52-Wk Range $87.27 60.62 Trailing 12-Month EPS $2.56 Trailing 12-Month P/E 30.5 $10K Invested 5 Yrs Ago NA Price Performance
30-Week Mov. Avg. 12-Mo. Target Price
80 60
Summary Mead Johnson Nutrition, split off from Bristol-Myers Squibb in 2009, is a global leader in pediatric nutrition.
S&P Oper. EPS 2012 E S&P Oper. EPS 2013 E P/E on S&P Oper. EPS 2012 E Common Shares Outstg. (M)
0.61 13 BBB
LOW
MEDIUM
HIGH
40 30
Our risk assessment reflects our view that demand for Mead Johnson's infant formula and children's nutritional products is comparatively predictable in developed economies and growing in emerging markets. We think demand in these categories has a relatively low sensitivity to changes in general economic and geopolitical conditions. This is partly offset by possible volatility in dairy prices.
84 25 47
Vol. Mil. 12 8 4 0 5 1 J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A
D
2
B-
MODERATE
HIGHEST = 99
2009
2010
2011
2012
Highlights
Investment Rationale/Risk
Revenue/Earnings Data Revenue (Million $) 1Q 2Q 2012 986.6 -2011 899.8 932.0 2010 763.5 764.2 2009 693.0 719.3 2008 716.0 716.0 2007 615.1 615.1 Earnings Per Share ($) 2012 0.80 E0.76 2011 0.71 0.64 2010 0.61 0.59 2009 0.55 0.66 2008 0.77 0.67 2007 ---
The 12-month target price for MJN has recently been changed to $81.00 from $78.00. The Highlights section of this Stock Report will be updated accordingly.
The Investment Rationale/Risk section of this Stock Report will be updated shortly. For the latest News story on MJN from MarketScope, see below. 04/26/12 02:54 pm ET ... S&P KEEPS SELL OPINION ON SHARES OF MEAD JOHNSON NUTRITION (MJN 86.20**): Before special items, Q1 EPS of $0.82 vs. $0.76 is $0.06 above our estimate. We are impressed by 29% EBIT growth from Asia/Latin American segment and sizable decline in corporate and other expense. Before special items, we are raising our '12 EPS estimate to $3.13 from $3.08 and '13's to $3.62 from $3.55. We view MJN as impressive int'l growth story. With higher EPS estimates, we are raising our target price by $3, to $81, which reflects close to 50% P/E premium (on '12 EPS estimates) to a recent average for a group of food stocks. But our target remains below the current price. /Tom Graves, CFA
Fiscal year ended Dec. 31. Next earnings report expected: Late July. EPS Estimates based on S&P Operating Earnings; historical GAAP earnings are as reported.
Please read the Required Disclosures and Analyst Certification on the last page of this report.
Redistribution or reproduction is prohibited without written permission. Copyright 2012 The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc.
Officers Chrmn J.M. Cornelius Pres & CEO S.W. Golsby COO & EVP P.K. Jakobsen EVP & CFO P.G. Leemputte SVP, Secy & General Counsel W.C. P'Pool
Board Members S. M. Altschuler H. B. Bernick K. A. Casiano A. C. Catalano C. A. Clark J. M. Cornelius S. W. Golsby P. G. Ratcliffe E. Sigal R. S. Singer
Redistribution or reproduction is prohibited without written permission. Copyright 2012 The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc.
Based on S&P's proprietary quantitative model, stocks are ranked from most overvalued (1) to most undervalued (5).
Fair Value Calculation Investability Quotient Percentile Volatility Technical Evaluation Insider Activity
Price/Sales Price/EBITDA Price/Pretax Income P/E Ratio Avg. Diluted Shares Outstg (M)
Figures based on calendar year-end price
98
LOWEST = 1 HIGHEST = 100
Key Growth Rates and Averages Past Growth Rate (%) Sales Net Income Ratio Analysis (Annual Avg.) Net Margin (%) % LT Debt to Capitalization Return on Equity (%)
1 Year 3 Years 5 Years 9 Years
MJN scored higher than 98% of all companies for which an S&P Report is available.
17.04 14.65
8.72 9.99
8.40 4.52
NA NA
LOW BEARISH
AVERAGE
HIGH
Since May, 2012, the technical indicators for MJN have been BEARISH.
14.11 111.41 NM
14.22 140.96 NA
14.55 188.43 NM
NA NA NA
UNFAVORABLE
NEUTRAL
FAVORABLE
Company Financials Fiscal Year Ended Dec. 31 Per Share Data ($) Tangible Book Value Cash Flow Earnings S&P Core Earnings Dividends Payout Ratio Prices:High Prices:Low P/E Ratio:High P/E Ratio:Low Income Statement Analysis (Million $) Revenue Operating Income Depreciation Interest Expense Pretax Income Effective Tax Rate Net Income S&P Core Earnings 2011 NM 2.89 2.47 2.53 1.04 42% 76.91 55.12 31 22 2010 NM 2.51 2.20 2.28 0.90 41% 63.38 43.50 29 20 2009 NM 2.28 1.99 2.02 0.40 20% 50.35 25.72 25 13 2008 NM 2.58 2.32 1.97 Nil Nil NA NA NA NA 2007 NA NA NA 2.11 NA NA NA NA NA NA 2006 NA NA NA 1.99 NA NA NA NA NA NA 2005 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA 2004 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA 2003 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA 2002 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA
NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA
NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA
NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA
Balance Sheet & Other Financial Data (Million $) Cash 840 Current Assets 1,890 Total Assets 2,767 Current Liabilities 1,200 Long Term Debt 1,532 Common Equity -179 Total Capital 1,375 Capital Expenditures 110 Cash Flow 594 Current Ratio 1.6 % Long Term Debt of Capitalization 111.4 % Net Income of Revenue 14.1 % Return on Assets 20.5 % Return on Equity NM
596 1,449 2,293 976 1,533 -367 1,174 172 517 1.5 130.5 14.4 20.8 NM
561 1,336 2,070 1,100 1,485 -675 821 95.8 459 1.2 Nil 14.1 NA NA
NA 717 1,361 653 2,000 -1,401 604 81.1 438 1.1 330.9 13.7 29.6 NM
NA 688 1,302 563 NA 631 638 78.4 466 1.2 Nil 16.4 33.7 69.5
NA 624 1,204 530 NA 586 592 68.9 441 1.2 Nil 17.0 NA NA
NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA
NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA
NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA
Data as orig reptd.; bef. results of disc opers/spec. items. Per share data adj. for stk. divs.; EPS diluted. E-Estimated. NA-Not Available. NM-Not Meaningful. NR-Not Ranked. UR-Under Review. Redistribution or reproduction is prohibited without written permission. Copyright 2012 The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc.
Stock Performance
GICS Sector: Consumer Staples Sub-Industry: Packaged Foods & Meats Based on S&P 1500 Indexes Month-end Price Performance as of 05/31/12
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
2008
Sub-Industry
2009
2010
2011
2012
Sector
S&P 1500
NOTE: All Sector & Sub-Industry information is based on the Global Industry Classification Standard (GICS)
Sub-Industry : Packaged Foods & Meats Peer Group*: Based on market capitalizations within GICS Sub-Industry
Peer Group Mead Johnson Nutrition Adecoagro SA American Lorain B&G Foods'A' BRF - Brasil Foods S.A. ADR Diamond Foods Dole Food Co Feihe International Post Holdings Rogers Sugar SkyPeople Fruit Juice Smart Balance Tate & Lyle ADS Westway Group Zhongpin Inc Stock Symbol MJN AGRO ALN BGS BRFS DMND DOLE ADY POST RSI.C SPU SMBL TATYY WWAY HOGS Stk.Mkt. Cap. (Mil. $) 15,934 1,121 43 1,131 12,972 444 761 90 1,008 487 40 358 4,687 355 351 Recent Stock Price($) 78.15 9.27 1.26 23.38 14.92 20.15 8.55 4.42 29.31 5.56 1.54 6.07 40.24 5.89 9.35 52 Week High/Low($) 87.27/60.62 13.10/7.16 2.20/1.10 24.64/15.29 21.70/14.83 96.13/20.01 14.58/8.02 9.32/2.22 34.35/22.75 5.78/4.46 3.40/1.37 7.15/4.47 46.07/35.13 6.60/3.78 14.17/6.60 Beta 0.61 NA 1.29 1.21 1.36 0.18 1.47 0.95 NA NA 0.23 0.72 0.88 0.13 1.37 Yield (%) 1.5 Nil Nil 4.6 2.2 0.9 Nil Nil Nil 19.4 Nil Nil 3.7 Nil Nil P/E Ratio 31 26 2 21 19 9 14 34 NM 12 4 38 10 NM 6 Fair Value Calc.($) 65.60 NA NA 21.40 NA 30.30 NA NA NA NA NA 5.60 NA NA NA S&P Return on Quality IQ Revenue Ranking %ile (%) NR NR NR NR NR NR NR NR NR NR NR NR NR NR NR 98 18 36 26 20 16 22 2 80 NA 33 14 20 7 15 14.1 10.4 9.9 9.2 5.3 5.2 0.5 1.6 NA 7.5 16.8 3.5 9.9 1.2 4.4 LTD to Cap (%) 111.4 13.9 8.6 74.3 20.9 49.7 65.8 17.6 32.4 32.9 NA 22.8 42.6 23.9 15.8
NA-Not Available NM-Not Meaningful NR-Not Rated. *For Peer Groups with more than 15 companies or stocks, selection of issues is based on market capitalization.
Source: S&P. Redistribution or reproduction is prohibited without written permission. Copyright 2012 The McGraw-Hill Companies,Inc.
$3.15. We see MJN largely as an emerging market growth story, with this appropriately reflected in the current price. Indicated dividend yield is 1.4%. /Tom Graves, CFA January 3, 2012 UP 3.81 to 72.54... MJN says it was notified by FDA and CDC that health inspectors have completed their testing on all formula samples collected from the co. Tests confirmed that the Mead Johson products were safe, and no presence of Cronobacter was detected. Notes this is consistent with two rounds of testing conducted by co. Says all infant formulas, incl. Enfamil PREMIUM Newborn, undergo approximately 2,300 quality checks and safety tests. William Blair reiterates outperform. January 3, 2012 10:31 am ET ... MEAD JOHNSON NUTRITION COMPANY (MJN 72.54) UP 3.81, MEAD JOHNSON (MJN) GETS FDA, CDC NODS ON ENFAMIL. WILLIAM BLAIR KEEPS OUTPERFORM... Analyst Jon Andersen tells salesforce MJN said it was told by Food and Drug Administration, Centers for Disease Control that health inspectors completed their testing on all formula samples collected from MJN, tests confirmed products were safe. Believes FDA, CDC findings clear way for WMT, other retailers who pulled batch of product to return Enfamil Premium Newborn formula to store shelves. Says MJN shares recently have traded at levels he finds attractive in light of co.'s attractive LT growth, return characteristics. Maintains $2.78 '11 EPS, $3.16 '12 ests. B.Egli December 27, 2011 MJN says it has conducted a new round of rigorous testing on samples of a batch of Enfamil Premium Newborn powdered formula related to a FDA investigation. Drawn from samples parallel to those being tested by public health officials and following the same methodology, the new testing did not detect any presence of Cronobacter (Enterobacter sakazakii). MJN says it can say with confidence that Enfamil Premium Newborn formula is safe. December 22, 2011 DOWN 6.39 to 70.09... WAL-MART has pulled a batch of powdered infant formula from more than 3,000 of its stores nationwide after a newborn Missouri boy who was fed the formula died from what preliminary tests indicate was a rare bacterial infection, the retailer said. The government has not ordered a recall of the 12.5-ounce cans of Enfamil Newborn powder with the lot number ZP1K7G. Manufacturer MJN said its records showed the lot tested negative for the bacterium before it was shipped: AP.
Hold
H
Weak Hold
WH
Sell S
No Opinion
MJN Trend
BUY/HOLD Companies Offering Coverage BMO Capital Markets, U.S. Equity Research BofA Merrill Lynch Citigroup Inc Credit Agricole Securities (USA) Inc. Credit Suisse D.A. Davidson & Co. Deutsche Bank Gabelli & Company, Inc. Goldman Sachs Hilliard Lyons JP Morgan Miller Tabak & Co., LLC Morgan Stanley Morningstar Inc. RBC Capital Markets S&P Equity Research William Blair & Company L.L.C.
80
60
40
2010
2011
2012
Of the total 17 companies following MJN, 15 analysts currently publish recommendations. No. of Ratings 2 5 7 1 0 0 15 % of Total 13 33 47 7 0 0 100 1 Mo. Prior 3 Mos. Prior 2 3 5 6 7 5 1 1 0 0 0 0 15 15 Wall Street Consensus vs. Performance
2012 2013 2011 Actual $2.47
Buy Buy/Hold Hold Weak Hold Sell No Opinion Total Wall Street Consensus Estimates
Estimates 5 4 3 2
F M A M J J A
2011
For fiscal year 2012, analysts estimate that MJN will earn $3.16. For the 1st quarter of fiscal year 2012, MJN announced earnings per share of $0.80, representing 25% of the total annual estimate. For fiscal year 2013, analysts estimate that MJN's earnings per share will grow by 15% to $3.63.
2011
2012
Fiscal Years 2013 2012 2013 vs. 2012 Q2'13 Q2'12 Q2'13 vs. Q2'12
# of Est. 14 15 -7% 13 13 0%
A company's earnings outlook plays a major part in any investment decision. Standard & Poor's organizes the earnings estimates of over 2,300 Wall Street analysts, and provides their consensus of earnings over the next two years. This graph shows the trend in analyst estimates over the past 15 months.
Source: S&P, Capital IQ Estimates, Inc. Redistribution or reproduction is prohibited without written permission. Copyright 2012 The McGraw-Hill Companies,Inc.
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5 STARS
4 STARS
3 STARS
2 STARS
1 STARS
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0 '92 '94 '96 '98 '00 '02 '04 '06 '08 '10
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Redistribution or reproduction is prohibited without written permission. Copyright 2012 Standard & Poor's Financial Services LLC. STANDARD & POOR'S, S&P, S&P 500, S&P Europe 350 and STARS are registered trademarks of Standard & Poor's Financial Services LLC.