I.

INTEREST RATES AND REQUIRED RETURN

A. Interest Rate Fundamentals

Interest rate or required return represents the cost of money. It is the compensation that a supplier of funds expects and a demander of funds must pay. Usually the term interest rate is applied to debt instruments such as bank loans or bonds, and the term required return is applied to equity investments, such as common stock. In fact, the meaning of these two terms is quite similar because, in both cases, the supplier is compensated for providing funds to the demander. Factors that can influence the equilibrium interest rates: Inflation - A rising trend in the prices of most goods and services.

Typically, savers demand higher returns (that is, higher interest rates) when inflation is high because they want their investments to more than keep pace with rising prices. Risk - The probability that an actual return on an investment will be lower than the expected return.

When people perceive that a particular investment is riskier, they will expect a higher return on that investment as compensation for bearing the risk. Liquidity Preference - A general tendency for investors to prefer short-term (that is, more liquid) securities.

Investors would prefer to buy short-term rather than long-term securities, interest rates on short-term instruments such as Treasury bills will be lower than rates on longer-term securities. Investors will hold these securities, despite the relatively low return that they offer, because they meet investors preferences for liquidity. Real Rate of Interest The rate that creates equilibrium between the supply of savings and the demand for investment funds in a perfect world, without inflation, where suppliers and demanders of funds have no liquidity preferences and there is no risk. This illustration represents the supplydemand relationship. By the supply function (labeled S0) and the demand function (labeled D). An equilibrium between the supply of funds and the demand for funds occurs at a rate of interest r0*, the real rate of interest.

Nominal Rate of Interest The actual rate of interest charged by the supplier of funds and paid by the demander. Usually takes the formula of:

Where: r1 - nominal rate of interest r* - real rate of interest IP - expected inflation premium RP1 - risk premium

Comparison of Real Interest Rate and Nominal Interest Rate The nominal interest rate (or money interest rate) is the percentage increase in money you pay the lender for the use of the money you borrowed. But the nominal interest rate doesnt take inflation into account. In other words, it is unadjusted for inflation. This leads to the concept of the real, or inflation-adjusted, interest rate. The real interest rate measures the percentage increase in purchasing power the lender receives when the borrower repays the loan with interest. This comparison leads to the formula of: Real Interest Rate = Nominal Interest Rate Inflation Rate

B. Term Structure of Interest Rates

The term structure of interest rates is the relationship between the maturity and rate of return for bonds with similar levels of risk. A graph of this relationship is called the yield curve. A quick glance at the yield curve tells analysts how rates vary between short-, medium-, and long-term bonds, but it may also provide information on where interest rates and the economy in general are headed in the future. Usually, when analysts examine the term structure of interest rates, they focus on Treasury securities because these are generally considered to be free of default risk. Types of Yield Curve Normal Yield Curve An Upward-Yield curve indicates that the long-term interest rates are generally higher than the shortterm interest rates.

Inverted Yield Curve A downward-sloping yield curve indicates that short-term interest rates are generally higher than longterm interest rates.

Flat Yield Curve

A curve that indicates that interest rates do not vary much at different maturities.

Theories of Term Structure Three theories are frequently cited to explain the general shape of the yield curve: the expectations theory, the liquidity preference theory, and the market segmentation theory. Expectations Theory One theory of the term structure of interest rates, the expectations theory, suggests that the yield curve reflects investor expectations about future interest rates. According to this theory, when investors expect short term interest rates to rise in the future (perhaps because investors believe that inflation will rise in the future), todays long-term rates will be higher than current short-term rates, and the yield curve will be upward sloping. The opposite is true when investors expect declining short-term ratestodays shortterm rates will be higher than current long-term rates, and the yield curve would be inverted.

Liquidity Preference Theory Most of the time, yield curves are upward sloping. According to the expectations theory, this means that investors expect interest rates to rise. An alternative explanation for the typical upward slope of the yield curve is the liquidity preference theory. This theory holds that, all else being equal, investors generally prefer to buy short-term securities, while issuers prefer to sell long-term securities. For investors, shortterm securities are attractive because they are highly liquid and their prices are not particularly volatile. Hence, investors will accept somewhat lower rates on short-term bonds because they are less risky than long-term bonds.

Market Segmentation Theory The market segmentation theory suggests that the market for loans is totally segmented based on maturity and that the supply of and demand for loans within each segment determine its prevailing interest rate. In other words, the equilibrium between suppliers and demanders of short-term funds, such as seasonal business loans, would determine prevailing short-term interest rates, and the equilibrium between suppliers and demanders of long-term funds, such as real estate loans, would determine prevailing long-term interest rates. The slope of the yield curve would be determined by the general relationship between the prevailing rates in each market segment. Simply stated, an upward-sloping yield curve indicates greater borrowing demand relative to the supply of funds in the long-term segment of the debt market relative to the short-term segment.

C. RISK PREMIUMS: ISSUER AND ISSUE CHARACTERISTICS

In words, the nominal rate of interest for security 1 (r1) is equal to the risk-free rate, consisting of the real rate of interest (r*) plus the inflation expectation premium (IP), plus the risk premium (RP1). The risk premium varies with specific issuer and issue characteristics.

II. Corporate Bonds (or Bonds)

Bonds A bond is a debt investment in which an investor loans money to an entity (corporate or governmental) that borrows the funds for a defined period of time at a fixed interest rate. Bonds are used by companies, municipalities, and governments to finance a variety of projects and activities and to raise capital. Bonds are commonly referred to as fixed-income securities and are one of the three main asset classes, along with stocks and cash equivalents. The indebted entity (issuer) issues a bond that states the interest rate (coupon) that will be paid and when the loaned funds (bond principal) are to be returned (maturity date). Some bonds do not pay interest, but all bonds require a repayment of principal. The main categories of bonds are corporate bonds, municipal bonds, and Treasury bonds, notes and bills, which are collectively referred to as simply "Treasuries." Features Principal

Nominal, principal, par or face amount is the amount on which the issuer pays interest, and which, most commonly, has to be repaid at the end of the term, usually P1,000. Some structured bonds can have a redemption amount which is different from the face amount and can be linked to performance of particular assets such as a stock or commodity index, foreign exchange rate or a fund. This can result in an investor receiving less or more than his original investment at maturity. Coupon

The coupon is the interest rate that the issuer pays to the holder. Usually this rate is fixed throughout the life of the bond. It can also vary with a money market index or it can be even more exotic. The name "coupon" arose because in the past, paper bond certificates were issued which coupons had attached to them, one for each interest payment. On the due dates the bondholder would hand in the coupon to a bank in exchange for the interest payment. Interest can be paid at different frequencies: generally semi-annual, i.e. every 6 months, or annual. Two features of a bond - credit quality and duration - are the principal determinants of a bond's interest rate. Maturity

The issuer has to repay the nominal amount on the maturity date. As long as all due payments have been made, the issuer has no further obligations to the bond holders after the maturity date. The length of time until the maturity date is often referred to as the term or tenor or maturity of a bond. The maturity can be any length of time, although debt securities with a term of less than one year are generally designated money market instruments rather than bonds. It ranges from a 90-day Treasury bill to a 30-year government bond. Corporate and municipals are typically in the three to 10-year range. Yield

The yield is the rate of return received from investing in the bond. It usually refers to:

1) current yield, or running yield, which is simply the annual interest payment divided by the current market price of the bond (often the clean price), or to 2) yield to maturity (YTM) or redemption yield, which is a more useful measure of the return of the bond, taking into account the current market price, and the amount and timing of all remaining coupon payments and of the repayment due on maturity. It is equivalent to the internal rate of return of a bond, or to 3) yield to call (YTC), which is the yield of a bond or note if you were to buy and hold the security until the call date. This yield is valid only if the security is called prior to maturity. The calculation of yield to call is based on the coupon rate, the length of time to the call date and the market price. Credit Quality

The "quality" of the issue refers to the probability that the bondholders will receive the amounts promised at the due dates. This will depend on a wide range of factors. High-yield bonds are bonds that are rated below investment grade by the credit rating agencies. As these bonds are more risky than investment grade bonds, investors expect to earn a higher yield. These bonds are also called junk bonds. Market Price

The market price of a tradable bond will be influenced amongst other things by the amounts, currency and timing of the interest payments and capital repayment due, the quality of the bond, and the available redemption yield of other comparable bonds which can be traded in the markets. The price can be quoted as clean or dirty. ("Dirty" refers to the actual price to be paid; "Clean" includes an adjustment for accrued interest.) The issue price at which investors buy the bonds when they are first issued will typically be approximately equal to the nominal amount. The net proceeds that the issuer receives are thus the issue price, less issuance fees. The market price of the bond will vary over its life: it may trade at a premium (above par, usually because market interest rates have fallen since issue), or at a discount (price below par, if market rates have risen or there is a high probability of default on the bond). Others

Conversion feature. It is a feature of convertible bonds that allows bondholders to change each bond into a stated number of shares of common stock. Call feature. It is a feature included in nearly all corporate bond issues that gives the issuer the opportunity to repurchase bonds at a stated call price prior to maturity. Stock Purchase Warrants. It gives their holders the right to purchase a certain number of shares of the issuers common stock at a specified price over a certain period of time.

A. Legal Aspects
Bond Indenture

It is a legal document that specifies both the rights of the bondholders and the duties of the issuing corporation. Included in the indenture are descriptions of the amount and timing of all interest and principal payments, various standard and restrictive provisions, and, frequently, sinking-fund requirements and security interest provisions. 1) Standard Provisions The standard debt provisions in the bond indenture specify certain record-keeping and general business practices that the bond issuer must follow. 2) Restrictive Provisions Bond indentures also normally include certain restrictive covenants, which place operating and financial constraints on the borrower. These provisions help protect the bondholder against increases in borrower risk. Without them, the borrower could increase the firms risk but not have to pay increased interest to compensate for the increased risk. The most common restrictive covenants do the following: 1. Require a minimum level of liquidity, to ensure against loan default. 2. Prohibit the sale of accounts receivable to generate cash. Selling receivables could cause long-run cash shortage if proceeds were used to meet current obligations. 3. Impose fixed-asset restrictions. The borrower must maintain a specified level of fixed assets to guarantee its ability to repay the bonds. 4. Constrain subsequent borrowing. Additional long-term debt may be prohibited, or additional borrowing may be subordinated to the original loan. Subordination means that subsequent creditors agree to wait until all claims of the senior debt are satisfied. 5. Limit the firms annual cash dividend payments to a specified percentage or amount. Other restrictive covenants are sometimes included in bond indentures. The violation of any standard or restrictive provision by the borrower gives the bondholders the right to demand immediate repayment of the debt. Generally, bondholders evaluate any violation to determine whether it jeopardizes the loan. They may then decide to demand immediate repayment, continue the loan, or alter the terms of the bond indenture. 3) Sinking-Fund Requirements Another common restrictive provision is a sinking-fund requirement. Its objective is to provide for the systematic retirement of bonds prior to their maturity. To carry out this requirement, the corporation makes semiannual or annual payments that are used to retire bonds by purchasing them in the marketplace.

4) Security Interest The bond indenture identifies any collateral pledged against the bond and specifies how it is to be maintained. The protection of bond collateral is crucial to guarantee the safety of a bond issue. Trustee

A trustee is a third party to a bond indenture. The trustee can be an individual, a corporation, or (most often) a commercial bank trust department. The trustee is paid to act as a watchdog on behalf of the bondholders and can take specified actions on behalf of the bondholders if the terms of the indenture are violated. Cost of Bonds to the Issuer The cost of bond financing is generally greater than the issuer would have to pay for short-term borrowing. The major factors that affect the cost, which is the rate of interest paid by the bond issuer, are the bonds maturity, the size of the offering, the issuers risk, and the basic cost of money. Impact of Bond Maturity

Generally, as we noted earlier, long-term debt pays higher interest rates than short-term debt. In a practical sense, the longer the maturity of a bond, the less accuracy there is in predicting future interest rates and therefore the greater the bondholders risk of giving up an opportunity to lend money at a higher rate. In addition, the longer the term, the greater the chance that the issuer might default. Impact of Offering Size

The size of the bond offering also affects the interest cost of borrowing but in an inverse manner: Bond flotation and administration costs per dollar borrowed are likely to decrease with increasing offering size. On the other hand, the risk to the bondholders may increase, because larger offerings result in greater risk of default. Impact of Issuers Risk

The greater the issuers default risk, the higher the interest rate. Some of this risk can be reduced through inclusion of appropriate restrictive provisions in the bond indenture. Clearly, bondholders must be compensated with higher returns for taking greater risk. Frequently, bond buyers rely on bond ratings (discussed later) to determine the issuers overall risk. Impact of the Cost of Money

The cost of money in the capital market is the basis for determining a bonds coupon interest rate. Generally, the rate on U.S. Treasury securities of equal maturity is used as the lowest-risk cost of money. To that basic rate is added a risk premium (as described earlier in this chapter) that reflects the factors mentioned above (maturity, offering size, and issuers risk).

G. Common Types of Bonds

Traditional Bonds - the basic types that have been around for years Unsecured Debentures. Unsecured bonds that only creditworthy firms can issue. Convertible bonds are normally debentures. Subordinated debentures. Claims are not satisfied until those of the creditors holding certain (senior) debts have been fully satisfied. Income bonds. Payment of interest is required only when earnings are available. Commonly issued in reorganization of a failing firm.

Secured Mortgage bonds. Secured by real estate or buildings. Collateral trust bonds. Secured by stock and (or) bonds that are owned by the issuer. Collateral value is generally 25% to 35% greater than bond value. Equipment trust certificates. Used to finance rolling stockairplanes, trucks, boats, railroad cars. A trustee buys the asset with funds raised through the sale of trust certificates and then leases it to the firm; after making the final scheduled lease payment, the firm receives title to the asset. It is a type of leasing.

H. Characteristics of Contemporary Bonds

III.

VALUATION FUNDAMENTALS

Valuation is the process that links risk and return to determine the worth of an asset. It is a relatively simple process that can be applied to expected streams of benefits from bonds, stocks, income properties, oil wells, and so on.

A. KEY INPUTS
There are three key inputs to the valuation process: (1) cash flows (returns) (2) timing, and (3) a measure of risk, which determines the required return. Each is described below. Cash Flows (Returns) The value of any asset depends on the cash flow(s) it is expected to provide over the ownership period. To have value, an asset does not have to provide an annual cash flow; it can provide an intermittent cash flow or even a single cash flow over the period. EXAMPLE OF CASH FLOW RETURN Celia Sargent wishes to estimate the value of three assets she is considering investing in: common stock in Michaels Enterprises, an interest in an oil well, and an original painting by a wellknown artist. Her cash flow estimates for each are as follows: Stock in Michaels Enterprises Expect to receive cash dividends of $300 per year indefinitely. Oil well Expect to receive cash flow of $2,000 at the end of year 1, $4,000 at the end of year 2, and $10,000 at the end of year 4, when the well is to be sold. Original painting Expect to be able to sell the painting in 5 years for $85,000. With these cash flow estimates, Celia has taken the first step toward placing a value on each of the assets. Timing In addition to making cash flow estimates, we must know the timing of the cash flows.2 For example, Celia expects the cash flows of $2,000, $4,000, and $10,000 for the oil well to occur at the ends of years 1, 2, and 4, respectively. The combination of the cash flow and its timing fully defines the return expected from the asset. Risk and Required Return The level of risk associated with a given cash flow can significantly affect its value. In general, the greater the risk of (or the less certain) a cash flow, the lower its value. Greater risk can be incorporated into a valuation analysis by using a higher required return or discount rate. The higher the risk, the greater the required return, and the lower the risk, the less the required return.

IV.

BOND VALUATION

A. BASIC BOND VALUATION FORMULA

A bond's value is the present value of the payments the issuer is contractually obligated to make -- from the present until maturity. The discount rate depends on the prevailing interest rate for debt obligations with similar risks and maturities.

B. BOND VALUE BEHAVIOR

In practice, the value of a bond in the marketplace is rarely equal to its par value. In the bond data, you can see that the prices of bonds often differ from their par values of 100 (100 percent of par, or $1,000). Some bonds are valued below par (current price below 100), and others are valued above par (current price above 100). Varieties of forces in the economy, as well as the passage of time, tend to affect value. Although these external forces are in no way controlled by bond issuers or investors, it is useful to understand the impact that required return and time to maturity have on bond value. Required Returns and Bond Values Whenever the required return on a bond differs from the bonds coupon interest rate, the bonds value will differ from its par value. The required return is likely to differ from the coupon interest rate because either (1) economic conditions have changed, causing a shift in the basic cost of long-term funds; or (2) the firms risk has changed. Increases in the basic cost of long-term funds or in risk will raise the required return; decreases in the cost of funds or in risk will lower the required return. Regardless of the exact cause, what is important is the relationship between the required return and the coupon interest rate: When the required return is greater than the coupon interest rate, the bond value, B0, will be less than its par value, M. In this case, the bond is said to sell at a discount. When the required return falls below the coupon interest rate, the bond value will be greater than par. In this situation, the bond is said to sell at a premium.

Time to Maturity and Bond Values Whenever the required return is different from the coupon interest rate, the amount of time to maturity affects bond value. An additional factor is whether required returns are constant or change over the life of the bond. 1. Constant Required Returns When the required return is different from the coupon interest rate and is constant until maturity, the value of the bond will approach its par value as the passage of time moves the bonds value closer to maturity. 2. Changing Required Returns

The shorter the amount of time until a bonds maturity, the less responsive is its market value to a given change in the required return. Short maturities have less interest rate risk than long maturities when all other features (coupon interest rate, par value, and interest payment frequency) are the same.

C. Yield To Maturity
When investors evaluate bonds, they commonly consider yield to maturity (YTM). This is the compound annual rate of return earned on a debt security purchased on a given day and held to maturity. (The measure assumes, of course, that the issuer makes all scheduled interest and principal payments as promised.) The yield to maturity on a bond with a current price equal to its par value (that is, B0 = M) will always equal the coupon interest rate. When the bond value differs from par, the yield to maturity will differ from the coupon interest rate.

D. Semiannual Rate and Bond Value

It involves 1. Converting annual interest, I, to semiannual interest by dividing I by 2. 2. Converting the number of years to maturity, n, to the number of 6-month periods to maturity by multiplying n by 2. 3. Converting the required stated (rather than effective) annual return for similar-risk bonds that also pay semiannual interest from an annual rate, rd, to a semiannual rate by dividing rd by 2.