Brandt 1

Zane Brandt Amanda Berg Advanced Composition. 30th October 2013 Moores Law V.S. Technological Advancement In the current age it seems like technology is moving faster and faster; this years top phone will be old news by next year. Though it feels like the rate at which technology improves may have no limits, there is a basic function the technological world uses to define the rate at which technology improves. At the current rate technology doubles in efficiency every two years in what is called the Moore's law.

Coined in 1970, Moore's law is actually a rather simple concept, as described by the co-founder of Intel (Gordon E Moore); the number of transistors in integrated circuits are doubled about every two years. Amazingly enough this observation/prediction was published in his 1965 paper and has been distinctly accurate as to the actual changes in IC (integrated circuit) advancement. Though his law does not directly relate, it is rather strongly linked to devices processing speed, sensors, memory capacity, and oddly the size and number of pixels and various devices. The basis for Moores law is that the Number of transistors able to be used in an integrated circuit will nearly double, while decreasing in size. Because of the decreased size of the transistors/increase in efficiency, components are able to contain and use more logic gates. The number of gates in a circuit determines the number of processes it can complete at once. While in RAM the number of gates determines the amount of data it can hold. Generally the

Brandt 2

more transistors can be fit in an IC the more powerful it is. Some things that are not really affected by the law are the cost of production, and the sizes of various ICs.

While Moores law is still mostly true today there are several other determining factors that could make it inaccurate. While the amount of transistors may double, they can theoretically only be so small. It is widely believed that the size of transistors will reach a molecular level in approximately 10-30 years. At that point transistors will be comprised of various atoms making up the circuits. While the physical components of a device is the ultimate determining factor of their capabilities, the software and firmware that controls it can utilize its potential, and even push it further than it was intended. As an example a processor has a safe speed or clock, which is the amount of cycles it has per second, in hertz (think of each cycle as a set of calculations). But with software one can increase the cycles per second, or hertz, at which it operates. This allows it to process the same information at a quicker rate. A large determining factor is the ability to produce and physically create newer better circuits, while keeping up with material demand. Regardless of how complex and efficient an IC is designed, if it can be manufactured it is useless. This physical limitation funnels the various designs that actually make it to production, and make it more difficult to think outside the box. Lastly due to the large demand and production of electronics on the global scale maintaining a steady supply of materials such as lithium silicon and other various components creates erratic spikes and drops in prices. Though there are many determining factors to Moores law it is still widely held as a guideline for many technological advances. Moores law is described as a self-fulfilling prophecy of sorts after becoming the industry standard for marketing, and engineering teams around the world. Acting as a general guideline

Brandt 3

Moores law is used to define when a product will be best suited for production and sale. With each new generation of processor there an estimable decrease in transistor size, and power consumption, while a measurable increase in speed. Because of this Chips and ICs can be designed ahead of time while the cost of production goes down. Then when the technology is effective and feasible to produce it is launched. In the most recent years the cost of Chip production has gone down even further promoting the production and research of new ICs. Because of this new era of rapid technological advances many look to see if Moores law will hold true. Despite the changing times, many analysts and companies alike believe Moores law will hold true for another 10 or more years, continuing to set goals and define the industry standard for technological advances.