DAILY COMMODITY REPORT 21st NOVEMBER.

2013

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DAILY COMMODITY REPORT 21st NOVEMBER. 2013

COMMODITY WRAPUP

COPPER
Copper markets were in surplus of 163000 tonnes in January-September 2013. The reported stocks declined by 80000 tonnes in Sept 2013, this was after a surplus of 240000 tonnes in full year ending 2012. LME three month Copper prices were trading at $ 6979 per tonne, compared to $ 6956 per tonne. MCX Copper was trading at Rs 436.45 per kg, up Rs 1.3 per kg. At MCX, copper for delivery in Nov traded higher by Rs 1.95, or 0.45%, to Rs 437.05 per kg.

GOLD
Gold prices recovered by 0.21% to Rs 30,376 per 10 grams in futures trade as speculators created fresh positions even as metal weakened overseas. At MCX, gold for delivery in Dec rose Rs 63, or 0.21%, to Rs 30,376 per 10 gram. The metal for delivery in the Feb moved up by Rs 51, or 0.17%, to Rs 29,731 per 10 gm. fresh positions created by participants amid covering-up of short positions, helped gold futures to trade higher but a weak trend overseas, limited gains.

CRUDE OIL
A considerable draw down in the Crude Oil contract open interest and volumes was noted last night. The prices recovered by 0.41% to Rs 5797 per barrel on Tuesday, after five consecutive days of slide. The recovery cannot be said as formidable till the prices are below Rs 5893 and 5900 per barrel. Supports for the contract are at Rs 5756 per barrel. NYMEX light sweet Crude Oil was trading at $ 94.24 per barrel, up 0.35 cents. for the whole year in 2012.

SILVER
Silver prices rose by 0.48% to Rs 47,105 per kg in futures trading yesterday as speculators enlarged positions despite a weakening trend in global markets. At MCX silver for delivery in March next year rose by Rs 324, or 0.48%, to Rs 47,105 per kg. The white metal for delivery in December traded higher by Rs 196, or 0.43%, to Rs 45,636 per kg in 229 lots. Fresh positions built up by speculators helped silver futures to trade higher but a weak trend overseas limited gains.

SPECIAL NEWS

COMMODITY BUZZ
World crude steel production for the 65 countries reporting to the World Steel Association (world steel) was 134 million tonnes (Mt) in October 2013, an increase of 6.6% compared to October 2012. The crude steel capacity utilization ratio for the 65 countries in October 2013 was 77.5% and it is 2.5 percentage points higher compared to October 2012. It is -1.8 percentage points lower than September 2013. NCDEX is launching a new steel futures contract with compulsory delivery with an option to opt for warehouse delivery and direct delivery to be executive by buyers and sellers. Contracts expiring in December 2013, January 2014, February 14 and March 14 will be available for trading from Thursday, November 21, 2013 (Today).
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*The Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke

said that the Fed would likely hold short-term rates near zero well after the economy reaches the 6.5% unemployment rate that is the threshold for considering a rate increase. The Federal Reserve would like to move away from using its balance sheet to help the economy and focus more on "forward guidance" about keeping shortterm rates low, but the timing of this shift remains an open question, he said. The taper timing still depended on continued improvement in the labor market and a pickup in inflation toward the central bank's 2% target. Bernanke also said rates could even stay near zero until "the preponderance of the data supports the beginning" of tightening.
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DAILY COMMODITY REPORT 21st NOVEMBER. 2013

COMMODITY LEVELS
DAILY LEVELS WITH TREND

ITEM GOLD SILVER CRUDE NATURAL GAS COPPER NICKEL LEAD ZINC ALUMINIUM

Contract 05 DEC 2013 05 DEC 2013 18 DEC 2013 25 NOV 2013 29 NOV 2013 29 NOV 2013 29 NOV 2013 29 NOV 2013 29 NOV 2013

Open 30331 45621 5906 222.20 435.60 851.90 130 116.80 109.70

High 30482 45849 5946 228.2 438.9 856.20 130.75 117.60 110.60

Low 30032 44900 5861 222 435.1 843.1 129.3 116.35 108.9

Close 30090 44996 5914 228.10 436.4 845.2 130.15 116.65 109.15

% Chg. -0.60 -0.78 +0.31 +2.02 +0.36 -0.39 +0.19 +0.04 -0.46

OI (in lots) 6295 10448 9021 7346 14308 9097 2669 2441 2344

TREND Consolidate Bearish Bearish Sideways Bearish Bearish Bearish Bearish Bearish

SUPPORT & RESISTANCE

COMMODITIES
GOLD SILVER CRUDE NATURAL GAS COPPER NICKEL LEAD ZINC ALLUMINIUM
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CONTRACT
05DEC2013 05DEC2013 19 NOV 2013 25 NOV 2013 29 NOV 2013 29 NOV 2013 29 NOV 2013 29 NOV 2013 29 NOV 2013

S2
29751.33 44299.33 5822.00 219.90 433.00 835.07 128.62 115.62 107.85

S1
29920.67 44647.67 5868.00 224.00 434.70 840.13 129.38 116.13 108.50

PIVOT
30201.33 45248.33 5907.00 226.10 436.80 848.17 130.07 116.87 109.55

R1
30370.67 45596.67 5953.00 230.20 438.50 853.23 130.83 117.38 110.20

R2
30651.33 46197.33 5992.00 232.30 440.60 861.27 131.52 118.12 111.25

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DAILY COMMODITY REPORT 21st NOVEMBER. 2013

RECOMMENDATION
GOLD
GOLD MCX looks week on charts. Consolidating between range 30500 and 29900. Any fresh breakout of the range will be good buying or selling opportunity. One can trade the range with a strategy to sell on Resistance levels @30400-30500 and buy on Supports @30000-29900. If trades above Resistance @30500 can head towards 30800 and if Sustains below support @29900 can head towards lower levels @29500.

BUY GOLD ABOVE 30500 TGTS 30600/30800 SL 30350 SELL GOD BELOW 29970 TGTS 29870/29700 SL 30100

CRUDE

CRUDEOIL MCX looks strong on charts. For short term buying can be seen in CRUDEOIL MCX. As in International markets WTI-CRUDEOIL is trading near to weekly strong support levels. Swing traders and investors should hold long position in CRUDEOIL till it holds 92.50$. Crude oil MCX immediate Resistance is @6100 and immediate support is @5800 levels.

BUY CRUDE MCX ABOVE 5950 TGTS 6000/6050 STRICT SL 5870 SELL CRUDE MCX BELOW 5800 TGTS 5750/5700 STRICT SL 5870

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DAILY COMMODITY REPORT 21st NOVEMBER. 2013

COMMODITY SPECIAL
LME INVENTORY (in tonnes)

METALS ALUMINIUM COPPER LEAD NICKEL TIN MOST ACTIVE CONTRACTS BY (VOLUME) Symbol
CRUDE OIL SILVERMICRO NATURAL GAS SILVER M COPPER GOLD M COPPERMINI SILVER GOLD PETAL GOLD

Change
-8875 -1950 -525 2700 Unchanged

Expiry Date
18-12-2013 30-11-2013 25-11-2013 30-11-2013 29-11-2013 05-12-2013 29-11-2013 05-12-2013 30-11-2013 05-12-2013

LTP
5918.00 45119.00 227.50 45104.00 436.65 30794.00 436.70 45085.00 3108.00 30130.00

Value (In Lacs) Volume (In Lots)

40,63,83,142.00 2,85,69,35,080.00 87,53,062.50 1,56,30,34,016.00 1,19,60,716.80 72,55,37,434.00 86,85,963.00 87,80,30,375.00 5,79,51,768.00 53,83,02,580.00 68,669 63,320 38,475 34,654 27,392 23,561 19,890 19,475 18,646 17,866

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DAILY COMMODITY REPORT 21st NOVEMBER. 2013

ECONOMIC CALENDER

TIME (ET)

REPORT

PERIOD ACTUAL MONDAY, NOV. 18

CONSENSUSFORECAST

PREVIOUS

10 am

Home builders' index

Nov. TUESDAY, NOV. 19

56

55

8:30 am

Employment cost index

3Q WEDNESDAY, NOV. 20

0.5%

0.5%

8:30 am 8:30 am 8:30 am 8:30 am 10 am 10 am 2 pm

Retail sales Retail sales ex-autos Consumer price index Core CPI Business inventories Existing home sales FOMC minutes

Oct. Oct. Oct. Oct. Sept. Oct.

0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.2% 0.3% 5.23 mln

-0.1% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.3% 5.29 mln

THURSDAY, NOV. 21 8:30 am 8:30 am 8:30 am 8:58 am 10 am 10 am Weekly jobless claims Producer price index Core PPI Markit flash PMI Philly Fed Leading indicators 11/16 Oct. Oct. Nov. Nov. Oct. FRIDAY, NOV. 22 10 am Job openings Sept. 3.9 mln
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N/A -0.2% 0.1 -15.0 --

N/A -0.1% 0.1% 51.8 19.8

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DAILY COMMODITY REPORT 21st NOVEMBER. 2013

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