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2013Q3
Coverage
International Coverage
AbuDhabi Argentina Australia Austria Bahrain Belgium Brazil Bulgaria Canada Chile China Colombia Croatia CzechRepublic Denmark Dubai Egypt Estonia Finland France Germany Greece HongKong Hungary Iceland India Indonesia Ireland Israel Italy Japan Jordan Korea Kuwait Latvia Lebanon Lithuania Luxembourg Malta Malaysia Mexico Morocco Netherlands NewZealand Norway Oman Peru Philippines Poland Portugal Qatar Romania Russia SaudiArabia Singapore Slovakia Slovenia SouthAfrica Spain Sweden Switzerland Taiwan Thailand Turkey UnitedKindgom
Data Sources
Form13F Form13D Form13G UKRegisters RegNewsSvcs RegStatements JPN5% JPNDetailedHold SEDICanadian CanadianInsider ChinaInsider TaiwanInsider AustraliaInsider AustriaInsider BelgiumInsider DenmarkInsider EstoniaInsider FinlandInsider FranceInsider GermanyInsider HKInsider HungaryInsider IcelandInsider ItalyInsider JapanInsider KoreaInsider LatviaInsider LithuaniaInsider NorwayInsider PolandInsider SingaporeInsider SpanInsider SwedenInsider ShortDisclosures AFMA BFSMA DFSA FFSA FranceAMF Bundesanzeiger HFSA CBofIreland CONSOB AFMNetherlands KNFPoland CMVMPortugal CNMVSpain SFSA UKFCA 10K 10Q Form3,4,5 Form144 Proxy ProxyCA EWRCA ALTCA 20F 8K MaterialChange ShareholderRep AggregateMFs InsiderUpdates PrivateHoldings HFP
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WhilethisReportwaspreparedusingsources,models,informationanddatabelievedtobereliable,theinformationcontainedherein,including,withoutlimitation,anyresultsordataprovidedtoyoubyCorreGroup,LLC(Corre),areprovidedtoyouASIS.AllexpressedorimpliedrepresentationsorwarrantiesofanykindwithrespecttotheReportortheinformation containedherein,including,withoutlimitation,warrantiesastoaccuracy,completeness,timeliness,suitability,merchantabilityoruseforaparticularpurposeareherebydisclaimed.NeitherCorrenorCorre'ssoftwareordataprovidersshallberesponsibleorliableforresultsobtainedfromuseoftheReport,oranyinformationoranalysescontainedtherein,oranylosses, (whetherdirect,indirect,incontract,tortorotherwise)arisingfromanydecisionmadeoractiontakenbyanypartyinrelianceupontheReport,orforanydelays,inaccuracies,errorsin,oromissionsoftheReport.Thisreportisstrictlyconfidentialandnottobedistributed.
2013Q3
Overview
Term
Crowding CrowdingByValue CrowdingByOwnership CrowdingByOwners Value Security Position Fund Category CustomFundGroup
Definition
Crowdingreferstotheoverconcentrationofinvestingintoaselectgroupofsecurities. ThemostinvestedsecuritiesbytotaldollarsinvestedbytheCorreGroupfunds. ThemostinvestedsecuritiesbythepercentageofsharesheldamongsttheCorreGroupfunds.Alsoreferredtoas"mostowned". Thesecuritieswiththehighestnumberofuniqueowners,i.e.fundsinvested. Thedollarinvestmentbyafundintoasecurity.Alsoreferredtoas"marketvalue". Aninvestablesecurityfromasingleissuer.Alsoreferredtoasa"stock","company"and"name". Acapitalallocationbyafundtoasecurity.Eachseparateallocationisauniqueposition. Amanagementcompanywithatleastoneposition.Alsoreferredtoasan"owner"or"manager". Aclassificationbytype,suchassector,marketcaporgeography. These250fundsrepresentthelargesthedgefundsintheCorreUniverse.
Assumptions
Thisreportispreparedexclusivelyfrompublicdisclosuredata,and thereforealldataisassumedtobecorrectandprovided"asis". Additionaltermsareincludedatthebottomofeverypage. >> Allfundsthathavemorethan33.3%oftheirportfolio inasinglepositionwillbeexcludedfromthisanalysis. >> Inaddition,fundsthatarelikelytoskewtheresultsof thisanalysisarealsoexcluded.Theseinclude: ESLInvestments,Inc. IcahnAssociatesCorp. BridgewaterAssociatesLP
Purpose
Thisreportseekstounderstandtheaggregatetradingthemes thatexistacrosscertainsecurities.Wealsohopetounderstand whichfundsarethekeycontributorstocertaintypesof crowdingbyevaluatingthetop10mostcrowdedfundstoeach categorythatweevaluate. Webelievethatunderstandingwherehedgefundassetsare beingoverconcentratedandhowmuchoverlapyouhaveto thesesecuritiesiscriticalintryingtoaccuratelyanalyzeportfolio risk,whetherthisisaportfoliooffundsorsecurities.
Data Properties
Funds Securities Countries DataSources TotalMarketValue 250 118,763 65 125 $906.74 Bln
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WhilethisReportwaspreparedusingsources,models,informationanddatabelievedtobereliable,theinformationcontainedherein,including,withoutlimitation,anyresultsordataprovidedtoyoubyCorreGroup,LLC(Corre),areprovidedtoyouASIS.AllexpressedorimpliedrepresentationsorwarrantiesofanykindwithrespecttotheReportortheinformation containedherein,including,withoutlimitation,warrantiesastoaccuracy,completeness,timeliness,suitability,merchantabilityoruseforaparticularpurposeareherebydisclaimed.NeitherCorrenorCorre'ssoftwareordataprovidersshallberesponsibleorliableforresultsobtainedfromuseoftheReport,oranyinformationoranalysescontainedtherein,oranylosses, (whetherdirect,indirect,incontract,tortorotherwise)arisingfromanydecisionmadeoractiontakenbyanypartyinrelianceupontheReport,orforanydelays,inaccuracies,errorsin,oromissionsoftheReport.Thisreportisstrictlyconfidentialandnottobedistributed.
2013Q3
Commentary
ConstellationBrands,Inc.(STZ),awineandspiritscompany, completedthepurchaseofGrupoModelosU.S.beerbusiness fromAnheuserBuschInBevinearlyJune. Theinitialreactionfrom investorswasrathertepidduetothelargepricetagofthe transaction($4.75b)andtheresultingeffectithadonSTZs balancesheet,whichcurrentlycarriesover$7bindebtandamere $120mmincash. Whilethisamountofleverageisconcerning,the effectontheoperationsofSTZhasbeentremendous. STZsaw almostimmediaterevenueandearningsgrowthasaresultofthe deal. Consequently,STZsharesbeganasteadymarchhigherfrom $50neartheendofJuly,upto$58justbeforetheirQ2earnings releaseinearlyOctober. Theearningsreleaseandcallvalidated themoveintheshareswithbeerrevenuesup3%y/yandEBITup 60%y/y,causingSTZtoboostitsguidanceforFY14. Sincethen, STZshareshaveralliedanadditional15%andhaventshownany signsofpullingback. SeveralhedgefundswerelargebuyersofSTZ duringQ3includingPennant,EtonPark(newposition),Conatus (newposition),MerchantsGate(morethantriplingtheirstake), andVikingGlobal. Withinflowsfromsomeverynotableinvestors, combinedwithstronggrowthandreasonablevaluations,STZcould beanametokeepaneyeonforfurthercrowdingfromthe investmentcommunity.
Fund Overlaps
Thefollowingfundshavethehighestoverlaptothe50mostcommonly heldsecuritiesinthiscustomfundgroup.
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WhilethisReportwaspreparedusingsources,models,informationanddatabelievedtobereliable,theinformationcontainedherein,including,withoutlimitation,anyresultsordataprovidedtoyoubyCorreGroup,LLC(Corre),areprovidedtoyouASIS.AllexpressedorimpliedrepresentationsorwarrantiesofanykindwithrespecttotheReportortheinformation containedherein,including,withoutlimitation,warrantiesastoaccuracy,completeness,timeliness,suitability,merchantabilityoruseforaparticularpurposeareherebydisclaimed.NeitherCorrenorCorre'ssoftwareordataprovidersshallberesponsibleorliableforresultsobtainedfromuseoftheReport,oranyinformationoranalysescontainedtherein,oranylosses, (whetherdirect,indirect,incontract,tortorotherwise)arisingfromanydecisionmadeoractiontakenbyanypartyinrelianceupontheReport,orforanydelays,inaccuracies,errorsin,oromissionsoftheReport.Thisreportisstrictlyconfidentialandnottobedistributed.
2013Q3
Commentary
Sothebys(BID),anauctioneeroffineartandjewelry,hasfounditselfinthemidstofwhat couldbedescribedassomewhatofaperfectstorm.Ononeside,easymoneyprovidedby theworldscentralbanksintheformofQEisdrivingthepricesofassets(stocks,bonds,real estate,etc.)aroundtheworldhigherasinvestorsareinafranticsearchforyield.Atthesame time,newlymintedbillionairesfromemergingmarketsaroundtheglobeareflockingtothe worldofhighendartandjewelry,eitherduetoalackoftraditionalinvestmentopportunities (likelyasaresultofQEpolicies),orasanalternativestoreofwealthtoprotecttheirfortunes fromuncertainconditionsintheirlocalcurrenciesandotherglobalmarkets. Whateverthecasemaybe,BIDisridingtheboomingartmarkettonewhighs.Hedgefunds havetakennoticeandarepilingintotheshares.Duringthe3rdquarter,thelargest250funds intheCorreUniversehavetripledtheirholdingsinBIDsharesandcurrentlyown22.5%ofthe outstandingshares(upfrom7.5%duringthe2ndquarter).BIDsharesrallied30%inQ3and arenowupover50%YTD.Withactivistinvestors(includingThirdPoint)pushingfor operationalchangesatthecompany,itsagoodbetthatBIDshareswillseealargeamount activityfromhedgefunds.
Fund Overlaps
Understandingwherehedgefundassetsarebeingoverconcentratedandhowmuchoverlap youhavetothesesecuritiesiscriticalwhentryingtoaccuratelyanalyzeportfoliorisk.The following10fundshavethehighestpercentageoftheirportfoliosinvestedinthemost overconcentratedsecurities.
IncreaseFromPreviousQtr DecreaseFromPreviousQtr
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WhilethisReportwaspreparedusingsources,models,informationanddatabelievedtobereliable,theinformationcontainedherein,including,withoutlimitation,anyresultsordataprovidedtoyoubyCorreGroup,LLC(Corre),areprovidedtoyouASIS.AllexpressedorimpliedrepresentationsorwarrantiesofanykindwithrespecttotheReportortheinformation containedherein,including,withoutlimitation,warrantiesastoaccuracy,completeness,timeliness,suitability,merchantabilityoruseforaparticularpurposeareherebydisclaimed.NeitherCorrenorCorre'ssoftwareordataprovidersshallberesponsibleorliableforresultsobtainedfromuseoftheReport,oranyinformationoranalysescontainedtherein,oranylosses, (whetherdirect,indirect,incontract,tortorotherwise)arisingfromanydecisionmadeoractiontakenbyanypartyinrelianceupontheReport,orforanydelays,inaccuracies,errorsin,oromissionsoftheReport.Thisreportisstrictlyconfidentialandnottobedistributed.
2013Q3
Commentary
Thefollowing10fundsarethemostoverlappedfundsacrossouruniverse.Thesefundseach havemorethan50%oftheirportfoliosinvestedinthemostcommonlyheldsecurities.Valiant CapitalManagementLPistheleastuniqueofallofthefundsweanalyzewith58%ofits portfolioinvestedacrossthesesecurities.
Commentary cont.
Facebook(FB)hasbeenonquitearollercoasterrideinitsshorthistoryasapubliccompany. FollowingitsIPOandsubsequentcrash,FBsharestradedinarelativelysmallrangeforthe entire1sthalfof2013.FollowingitsQ2earningsreportinlateJuly,whichdemonstrateda significantincreaseinmobileadsales(whichhadbeenamajorareaofpessimismamong analystsandinvestorsatthetimeofitsIPO),FBsharesspikedover25%inasingleday. MobileadsalesnowaccountfornearlyhalfofFBstotalrevenue,anumberwhichhasseen dramaticgrowthoverthepastyear.FBisnowtradingaboveitsIPOpriceandinvestors,who largelyabandonedFBfollowingitsIPOdebacle,arereturningtothesharesinpacks.Several hedgefundsinitiatedverylargenewpositionsinFB,includingTigerCubs/GrandCubsCoatue, DiscoveryCapital,SRS,andVikingGlobal.Additionally,LonePinesignificantlyincreasedits exposuretoFBduringthequarter.Clearlytheentranceofthesefundshaspushedtheshares ofFBtoitsnewheights.Whatisconcerning,however,isthespeedatwhichthesefundsare jumpingin,whichisbestexemplifiedbyCoatue,whoinitiatedanearly$500mmposition duringQ3alone.Youngtechcompaniesareknowntogothroughfitsandstarts.Investors shouldbecognizantofthenewshareholderbasethatnowoccupiesFB.
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WhilethisReportwaspreparedusingsources,models,informationanddatabelievedtobereliable,theinformationcontainedherein,including,withoutlimitation,anyresultsordataprovidedtoyoubyCorreGroup,LLC(Corre),areprovidedtoyouASIS.AllexpressedorimpliedrepresentationsorwarrantiesofanykindwithrespecttotheReportortheinformation containedherein,including,withoutlimitation,warrantiesastoaccuracy,completeness,timeliness,suitability,merchantabilityoruseforaparticularpurposeareherebydisclaimed.NeitherCorrenorCorre'ssoftwareordataprovidersshallberesponsibleorliableforresultsobtainedfromuseoftheReport,oranyinformationoranalysescontainedtherein,oranylosses, (whetherdirect,indirect,incontract,tortorotherwise)arisingfromanydecisionmadeoractiontakenbyanypartyinrelianceupontheReport,orforanydelays,inaccuracies,errorsin,oromissionsoftheReport.Thisreportisstrictlyconfidentialandnottobedistributed.
2013Q3
Quarter 2013Q3 2013Q2 2013Q1 2012Q4 2012Q3 2012Q2 2012Q1 2011Q4 2011Q3 2011Q2 1,000,000,000,000 900,000,000,000 800,000,000,000 700,000,000,000 600,000,000,000 500,000,000,000 400,000,000,000 300,000,000,000 200,000,000,000 100,000,000,000
Portfolio Value $906.74 Bln $897.75 Bln $889.72 Bln $759.96 Bln $708.84 Bln $648.33 Bln $693.45 Bln $583.07 Bln $527.71 Bln $665.49 Bln
Avg Position Size $16.93 MM $16.24 MM $16.75 MM $14.61 MM $13.85 MM $12.52 MM $13.15 MM $11.82 MM $11.13 MM $13.05 MM
Avg # of Positions 214 221 213 208 205 207 211 197 190 204
Quarter 2011Q1 2010Q4 2010Q3 2010Q2 2010Q1 2009Q4 2009Q3 2009Q2 2009Q1 2008Q4
Portfolio Value $640.54 Bln $631.44 Bln $529.45 Bln $473.62 Bln $529.20 Bln $473.37 Bln $438.41 Bln $356.69 Bln $267.51 Bln $269.75 Bln
Avg Position Size $13.27 MM $13.49 MM $11.68 MM $10.66 MM $11.69 MM $10.70 MM $9.89 MM $8.47 MM $6.77 MM $6.79 MM
Avg # of Positions 193 187 181 178 181 177 177 168 158 159
Quarter 2008Q3 2008Q2 2008Q1 2007Q4 2007Q3 2007Q2 2007Q1 2006Q4 2006Q3 2006Q2
Portfolio Value $411.40 Bln $560.51 Bln $524.54 Bln $566.25 Bln $560.18 Bln $632.42 Bln $510.91 Bln $453.76 Bln $396.00 Bln $371.46 Bln
Avg Position Size $10.09 MM $12.13 MM $12.18 MM $12.75 MM $13.79 MM $12.72 MM $10.92 MM $10.10 MM $9.95 MM $9.45 MM
Avg # of Positions 163 185 172 178 162 199 187 180 159 157
16,243,786 16,747,660
16,929,819
12,720,375
14,614,940 13,845,410
11,132,729
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WhilethisReportwaspreparedusingsources,models,informationanddatabelievedtobereliable,theinformationcontainedherein,including,withoutlimitation,anyresultsordataprovidedtoyoubyCorreGroup,LLC(Corre),areprovidedtoyouASIS.AllexpressedorimpliedrepresentationsorwarrantiesofanykindwithrespecttotheReportortheinformation containedherein,including,withoutlimitation,warrantiesastoaccuracy,completeness,timeliness,suitability,merchantabilityoruseforaparticularpurposeareherebydisclaimed.NeitherCorrenorCorre'ssoftwareordataprovidersshallberesponsibleorliableforresultsobtainedfromuseoftheReport,oranyinformationoranalysescontainedtherein,oranylosses, (whetherdirect,indirect,incontract,tortorotherwise)arisingfromanydecisionmadeoractiontakenbyanypartyinrelianceupontheReport,orforanydelays,inaccuracies,errorsin,oromissionsoftheReport.Thisreportisstrictlyconfidentialandnottobedistributed.
2013Q3
Overweight/Underweight Difference between Corre Funds and S&P500 Thischartshowsthesectorsacrossthecustomfundgroupthatare overweightandunderweightrelativetotheS&P500forthecurrent quarter.
Technology Financials Utilities
-5.7% 2.3% 2.2% 0.8% -1.9% -1.5% -2.1% 4.8% -0.4% 2.2%
Sector Trends
For2013Q3,the250largesthedgefundsbyassetswereoverweightEnergy,Telecommunicationsand ConsumerDiscretionaryandunderweightUtilities. Thesectorswiththemostincreasedallocationsfrom2013Q2includedConsumerDiscretionary, IndustrialsandTelecommunications.Sectorswhichexperiencedthelargestoutflowsfromtheprior quarterwereFinancialsandHealthcare. Sector Weightings: S&P500 vs Corre Universe
12.0% Technology 14.2% 14.0% Financials 13.6% 7.7% Utilities 2.0% 1.0% Telecom 3.3% 20.9% ConDiscretionary 23.1% 11.6% Healthcare 12.4% 8.5% ConStaples 6.6% 10.1% Industrials 8.6% 7.6% BasicMaterials 5.6% 5.8% Energy 10.6% SP500 Corre
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WhilethisReportwaspreparedusingsources,models,informationanddatabelievedtobereliable,theinformationcontainedherein,including,withoutlimitation,anyresultsordataprovidedtoyoubyCorreGroup,LLC(Corre),areprovidedtoyouASIS.AllexpressedorimpliedrepresentationsorwarrantiesofanykindwithrespecttotheReportortheinformation containedherein,including,withoutlimitation,warrantiesastoaccuracy,completeness,timeliness,suitability,merchantabilityoruseforaparticularpurposeareherebydisclaimed.NeitherCorrenorCorre'ssoftwareordataprovidersshallberesponsibleorliableforresultsobtainedfromuseoftheReport,oranyinformationoranalysescontainedtherein,oranylosses, (whetherdirect,indirect,incontract,tortorotherwise)arisingfromanydecisionmadeoractiontakenbyanypartyinrelianceupontheReport,orforanydelays,inaccuracies,errorsin,oromissionsoftheReport.Thisreportisstrictlyconfidentialandnottobedistributed.
2013Q3
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WhilethisReportwaspreparedusingsources,models,informationanddatabelievedtobereliable,theinformationcontainedherein,including,withoutlimitation,anyresultsordataprovidedtoyoubyCorreGroup,LLC(Corre),areprovidedtoyouASIS.AllexpressedorimpliedrepresentationsorwarrantiesofanykindwithrespecttotheReportortheinformation containedherein,including,withoutlimitation,warrantiesastoaccuracy,completeness,timeliness,suitability,merchantabilityoruseforaparticularpurposeareherebydisclaimed.NeitherCorrenorCorre'ssoftwareordataprovidersshallberesponsibleorliableforresultsobtainedfromuseoftheReport,oranyinformationoranalysescontainedtherein,oranylosses, (whetherdirect,indirect,incontract,tortorotherwise)arisingfromanydecisionmadeoractiontakenbyanypartyinrelianceupontheReport,orforanydelays,inaccuracies,errorsin,oromissionsoftheReport.Thisreportisstrictlyconfidentialandnottobedistributed.