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VISION
AGENDA :
I. II. III. IV. V. BACKGROUND INTRODUCTION API (INAGA) GEOTHERMAL INDONESIA THE HUMAN RESOURCE CHALLENGES CONCLUSION
BACKGROUND
INDONESIA HAS A TOTAL RESOURCES OF 29 GW GEOTHERMAL CAPACITY, UNFORTUNATELY JUST 1283.5 MW UTILIZED (4.5 % as of Aug 2012), ANY . CONTRACTED ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENTS WERE CEASED AND AGREED PPAS WERE CANCELLED DUE TO THE ASIA FINANCIAL CRISIS IN 1997 1998 UNDER ERA REFORMASI REFFERED TO THE LAW No. 27/2003, THE OWNERSHIP OF RESOURCES WAS MOVED FROM CENTRAL TO LOCAL GOVERNMENTS, THE DEVELOPMENT AND OPERATION OF GEOTHERMAL FIELDS WHICH WAS UNDER MONOPOLY ARRANGEMENT ON BEHALF OF PERTAMINA HAS BEEN CHANGED, NOW MUST COMPETE WITH OTHER PUBLIC AND/OR PRIVATE COMPANIES. CONSIDERED DECLINING OF FOSSIL FUEL AND REDUCTION OF CO2 EMISSION, GOI REQUESTED TO ACCELERATE THE RENEWABLE ENERGY DEVELOPMENT PARTICULARLY GEOTHERMAL, 51 WORKING AREAS (WKP) HAVE BEEN ESTABLISHED (INCLUDE 15 EXISTING WKPS OWNED BY PT PGE) AND COMMITTED TO DEVELOP AN ADDITIONAL CAPACITY OF ABOUT 2962 MW IN 2014/15 AND TO BECOME 12.332 MW IN 2025.
BACKGROUND
TO OBTAIN AMBISIUS TARGET FROM CURRENT STATUS CAPACITY 1283.5 MW TO BECOME 4756 MW IN 2014/15, REQUIRED THE EXPLORATIONIST AND ENGINEERS OF GEOTHERMAL UP TO APPROX. 4.000 PEOPLES, THERE SHOULD BE A PROGRAMME IN THE NATIONAL GEOTHERMAL CAPACITY BUILDING AND SUPPORTED BY ALL STAKEHOLDERS. THE GEOTHERMAL CAPACITY BUILDING PROGRAMS OBJECTIVES IS TO INCREASE THE CAPACITY OF INDONESIA TO DEVELOP AND OPERATE GEOTHERMAL FIELDS, TO ADVANCE THE KNOWLEDGE AND SKILL BASE OF INDONESIAS CENTRES OF EXCELLENCE REGARDING BEST ENGINEERING PRACTICES MEANS TO ACHIEVE THE OBJECTIVE TO DEVELOP AND ADMINISTER TRAINING IN GEOTHERMAL SUBJECTS AREAS, ENHANCED INDONESIAS GEOTHERMAL RESEARCH CAPACITY, ENHANCED AND OPTIMIZED THE GEOTHERMAL LOW-MEDIUM ENTHALPY ALSO THE GEOTHERMAL DIRECT USED ENHANCED THE GEOTHERMAL DATA BASE AS A CENTRE OF NATIONAL GEOTHERMAL INFORMATION, DEVELOP THE GEOTHERMAL TECHNOLOGY CENTRE AND GEOTHERMAL TRAINING CENTRE
API is a professional and nonprofit organization, which function as a forum of communication, coordination and consultation in order to improve its capabilities, understanding, cooperation and responsibility of the role of geothermal energy development in Indonesia. MEMBERS: there are around 600 members of API which covers:
Geothermal Companies: PGE, Chevron, Star Energy, Supreme Energy, Geodipa, Medco, Bakrie Power, Indonesia Power, rekayasaIndustri, PLN Geothermal. Academic: ITB, UI, UGM, UNILA, Trisakti etc Regional Chapter: Jateng DIY and Lampung Professionals and Individuals
CONTRIBUTION:
API is actively involved in drafting Academic Paper for the several geothermal regulation Continuously seeking solutions for issues related to geothermal development in Indonesia as inputs to the government Advocating and facilitating solution for geothermal development Provide seminars, luncheon Talk, panel discussion in geothermal development
VISION
Being a trusted partner of government, companies and professionals in the geothermal energy business, in encouraging and facilitating the development of Indonesia's geothermal potential as an main energy choice in order to support energy security and sustainable national economic growth and ensure the creation of Indonesia as the "Super Power" in the geothermal energy utilization
MISSION
Encouraging conducive investment climate of geothermal development through close cooperation and mutual benefit between the government and employers and ensure the creation of government regulations, both national and local that are sup portive and aligned. Overseeing road map of government in the development of geothermal energy as a new and renewable energy as the implementation of the national energy mix 25/25 policy (25% in 2025). To encourage the development of human resources and geothermal energy technology development through cooperation with governments, educational institutions, companies and professional organizations, both national and international, towards the independence of Indonesia as a "geothermal center of excellence". To socialize and educate the public about the potential, contributions and positive values, to support the creation of conducive conditions in geothermal development efforts.
Cadangan Energi Nasional (2011*) Minyakbumi 9,1 milyar barrels - produksi 387 juta bbl/tahun ->sisa 28 tahun lagi
Gas Alam 185,8 Trilliun Kaki kubik - produksi 2,95 TSCF ->sisa 62 tahun
Batubara 19,3 milyar ton -> produksi 340 juta ton/tahun ->sisa 120 tahun Panasbumi 29 Gigawatt, 40% dari potensi dunia; tersebar di 276 lokasi --dimanfaatkan 4% (1226MW) -->terbarukan (insyaallah sampai kiamat)
*) Rudi Rubiandini (2010) ; Widjajono Partowidagdo(2011) ; Abadi Purnomo (2012)
Number of Volcanoes : 150 Potential : 40% of the World potential Promising fields : 256 fields, Potential : more than 29,000 MW Current Installed Capacity : 1,283.5 MW
30,000 Indonesia 25,000
Geothermal potential (MW)
20,000
USA
15,000
10,000 Mexico Iceland 5,000 Italy New Zealand 0 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 No. of Volcanoes
JICA/WestJEC
19
10
Indonesia will need approximately 200 400 manpower per yearREF. NENNY S ITB, OCT 2009
SEBARAN POTENSI PANAS BUMI INDONESIA 285 Lokasi / 29, 215 MWe
No. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
Pulau Sumatera Jawa Bali Nusa Tenggara Kalimantan Sulawesi Maluku Papua Total
Potensi (MW) 13.470 9.717 296 1.471 145 2.939 1.051 75 29.215
Note:
SurveyPendahuluan SurveyDetail
SiapDikembangkan Terpasang
Resources
Island
Speculative (MWe) Sumatera Jawa Bali Nusa Tenggara Kalimantan Sulawesi Maluku Papua 4059 1710 70 340 145 1287 545 75 Hyphotetical (MWe) 2543 1826 359 139 97 Possible (MWe) 6524 3708 226 757 1285 409 -
Reserves
Probable (MWe) 15 658 150 Proven (MWe) 380 1815 15 78 -
4964
12909
823
2288
13.195 GW
16.020 GW
29.215 GW
ENERGY POTENTIAL
NO
1
RESOURCES (SD)
3
Hydro
75,670 MW
5,705.29 MW
7.54
2
3
4 5 6
Geothermal
Mini/Micro Hydro
Biomass Solar Energy Wind Energy
29,215 MW
1,013.5 MW
49,810 MW 4.80 kWh/m2/day 3 6 m/s 3.000 MW (e.q. 24,112 ton) for 11 years*)
1, 283.5 MW
462.0 MW
1,618.40 MW 13.5 MW 1.87 MW
4.36
46.0 3.25 -
Uranium
*) only in Kalan West Kalimantan
NO
1
FOSSIL ENERGY
2
RESOURCES (SD)
3
RESERVES (CAD)
4
PRODUCTION (PROD)
6
1 2
56.6 334.5
14 51
0.346 2.9
23 55
3
4
104.8
453
14
20.98
-
18
-
0.254
-
83
-
Jumlah Emisi CO2 2,31 2,68 2,52 1,51 Kg/l Kg/l Kg/l
Satuan
WKP,Lokasi
Sibayak Sinabung, SUMUT Cibeureum Parabakti, JABAR
PLTP
Sibayak / PGE Salak / Chevron
3
4 5 6 7 8 9
Pangalengan, JABAR
Kamojang Darajat, JABAR Kamojang Darajat, JABAR DataranTinggiDieng, JATENG Lahendong Tompaso, SULUT UluBelu - Lampung Mataloko
227
200 270 60 80 55 2,5
Total
1.283,5
16
SULUT2 WKP Kotamobagu: 410 MW Lahendong-Tompaso: 358 MW MALUT2 WKP Jailolo: 75 MW Songa Wayaua: 140 MW
JATENG 5WKP Baturaden: 175 MW Dataran Tinggi Dieng: 780 MW Guci: 79 MW Gn. Ungaran: 100 MW Candi Umbul Telomoyo: 72 MW
JATIM3 WKP Blawan Ijen: 270 MW Gn. Iyang Argopuro: 295 MW Telaga Ngebel: 120 MW
Exploration
Development
Operation
Period 1 2 years Regional Exploration Geochemical Geophysical Prospect Exploration Temperature core hole drilling Resource measurement Preliminary modeling Permitting Environment permits Exploration permits
Period 3 4 years Production Drilling Construction of Roads & Pads Design characteristics Geological structure Drilling targets Engineering requirements Procurement of materials Obtain suitable rig & crew Equity Funding Well testing Reservoir management Permits Drilling permit Power Purchase Agreement Environmental Permit Water permits Building permits Financing Bankable Reservoir Report EPC Contract Viable financial model Lenders engineer Third Party Environmental Review Construction EPC Contract
Period 30 40 years Operate Facilities Employ & train staff Spare parts Routine maintenance Manage Resource Resource modelling Makeup wells Well Workover Reservoir modeling Ongoing Development Phases Repeat Exploration & Development Phases
Preliminary Drilling Road & pad construction Rig procurement Target identification Exploration drilling Delineation drilling Re-evaluate Business Model Site, scale & technology Resource update Generation update Feasibility Study
GEOTHERMAL POWER PLANT PROJECTS INCLUDED IN CRASH PROGRAM PHASE II (BASED ON MEMR REGULATION NO. 01/2012)
REQUIRED INSTALLED ESTIMATION OF FINANCING STATUS PROVINCE CAPACITY CAPACITY (MW) 2014 (US$ 2014 (MW) MILLION) Sungai Penuh Existing WKP Jambi 2x55 110 330 Hululais Existing WKP Bengkulu 2x55 110 330 Kotamobagu 1 and 2 Existing WKP North Sulawesi 2x20 40 120 Kotamobagu 3 and 4 Existing WKP North Sulawesi 2x20 40 120 Sembalun Open Area West Nusa Tenggara 2x10 20 60 Tulehu Existing WKP Maluku 2x10 20 60 Tangkuban Perahu I New WKP West Java 2x55 110 330 Kamojang 5 and 6 Existing WKP West Java 1 x30 1 x60 90 270 Ijen New WKP East Java 2x55 110 330 Iyang Argopuro Existing WKP East Java 1 x55 55 165 Ngebel New WKP East Java 3x55 165 495 Gunung Endut New WKP Banten 1 x55 55 165 Rawa Dano New WKP Banten 1 x 110 110 330 Cibuni Existing WKP West Java 1 x 10 10 30 Cisolok-Cisukarame New WKP West Java 1 x50 50 150 Karaha Bodas Existing WKP West Java 1 x30 2x55 140 420 Patuha Existing WKP West Java 3x60 180 540 Tampomas New WKP West Java 1 x45 45 135 Tangkuban Perahu II Existing WKP West Java 2x30 60 180 Wayang Windu Unit 3 and 4 Existing WKP West Java 2x 110 220 660 Gunung Ciremai New WKP West Java 2 x 55 110 330 Baturaden New WKP Central Java 2x 110 220 660 Dieng Existing WKP Central Java 1 x55 1 x60 115 345 Guci New WKP Central Java 1 x55 55 165 Ungaran New WKP Central Java 1 x55 55 165 Seulawah Agam New WKP Aceh 1X55 55 165 GEOTHERMAL POWER PLANT PROJECT
NO. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26
NO. 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51
GEOTHERMAL POWER PLANT PROJECT Jaboi Sarulla 1 Sarulla 2 Umbul Telumoyo Simbolon Samosir Sipoholon Ria-Ria Sorik Marapi Muaralaboh Bonjol Lumut Balai Rantau Dadap Rajabasa Ulubelu 3 and 4 Suoh Sekincau Wai Ratai Danau Ranau Lahendong 5 dan 6 Bora Marana/Masaingi Hu'u Atadei Sokoria Mataloko Jailolo Songa Wayaua
STATUS New WKP Existing WKP Existing WKP New WKP Open Area New WKP New WKP New WKP New WKP Existing WKP New WKP New WKP Existing WKP New WKP Open Area New WKP Existing WKP Open Area New WKP New WKP New WKP New WKP New WKP New WKP New WKP
PROVINCE Aceh North Sumatera North Sumatera Central Java North Sumatera North Sumatera North Sumatera West Sumatera West Sumatera South Sumatera South Sumatera Lampung Lampung Lampung Lampung Lampung North Sulawesi Central Sulawesi Central Sulawesi West Nusa Tenggara East Nusa Tenggara East Nusa Tenggara East Nusa Tenggara North Maluku North Maluku
REQUIRED INSTALLED ESTIMATION OF FINANCING CAPACITY CAPACITY (MW) 2014 (US$ 2014 (MW) MILLION) 2x5 10 30 3x 110 330 990 2x55 110 330 1 x55 55 165 2x55 110 330 1 x55 55 165 240 (Total) 240 720 2x 110 220 660 3x55 165 495 4x55 220 660 2x110 220 660 2x110 220 660 2x55 110 330 4x55 220 660 1 x55 55 165 2x55 110 330 2x20 40 120 1 x5 5 15 2x10 20 60 2x10 20 60 2 x2,5 5 15 3x5 15 45 1 x5 5 15 2x5 10 30 1 x5 5 15
4.925
14.775
IVESTMENT OPPORTUNITIES
51 (WKP) were issued for development with a total of 4,925 MW as part of10,000 MW Crash Program Stage II, will require more than US$ 14 Billion for the investment. International Supports are needed if we want to reach the vision 25/25 or 12,000 MW Geothermal Power Plant Foreign ownership in Geothermal Business is allowed up to 95 %; Other business opportunities in geothermal sector: Geothermal direct use; Low temperature geothermal potential;
Small scale power plant; CER under CDM Scheme; Services company to support the core business of geothermal.
- In General, all 285 Geothermal locations in Indonesia are open to develop.
2006 852 MW
2008 2000 MW
2012
2014
2016 5.171 MW
4600 MW *
2020 7.788 MW
2025
3442 MW
(Production)
12.332 MW (Target)
9500 MW *
1.194 MW
Current Condition PERMEN ESDM No. 15/2010
5.795MW MW 5.171
Plus Crash Program Scenario Phase II
Japan
Iceland Costa Rica El Salvador Kenya Russia (Kamchatka) Nicaragua Guatemala
535
202 163 151 127 79 77 33
China
Turkey Others
28
20.4 551
Total
10,819
GEOTHERMAL ELECTRICITY THE WORLD Cont.. While this 10.8GWe might seem a lot of energy, to put it into perspective, the electricity generated by Wind Energy reached almost 160GWe by the end of 2009 Also, the 10.8GWe of Geothermal Energy has been developed over a period of 50 years. However, Geothermal Electricity now has some more aggressive growth targets.
But one of the reasons for this slow early development is that geothermal, in many respects, is a much more specialised and challenging technology than wind or other renewable energy.
With all of this geothermal development suddenly being instituted, what are the consequences? One certain consequence is the lack of trained and qualified people to implement such plans Lets look at the typical life cycle of a geothermal field and see the implications for human resource development.
Expansion
Maintenance
Operation
Surface Mapping
Geophysics (MT-TDEM)
Well Targeting
Initial Production Drilling
Geological Modeling
Micro-earthquake Study Full Development Production Drilling Reservoir Modeling
CAPACITY BUILDING OPPORTUNITIES In the past Geothermal Development has been start-stop which has resulted in there being no opportunity for structured career development. Now the world-wide interest in renewable energy has changed the outlook for the Geothermal Industry Indonesia could and should be the home of geothermal exploitation and education. Over the next 10 years we will see the development of very many companies looking for qualified staff in all stages of development. Excellent opportunities for worldwide careers, since experience is very transportable.
CAPACITY BUILDING CHALLENGES - 1 As an indication, a non-rigorous analysis of the development of a typical 50MWe geothermal power plant might involve something like the following staffing Geologists; Geochemists; Geophysicists say 10 Electrical, Mechanical, Civil Engineers say 6 Procurement, logistics say 4 Specialist consultants say 8 Financial experts - say 3 Planner at least 1 Environment Engineer at least 1 Community Relations say 2 Drilling Specialists/Consultants say 2 Hence a total of about at least 37 specialized staff
CAPACITY BUILDING CHALLENGES - 2 The obvious conclusion from the last slide is that to achieve the Governments goal by 2014/2015we might need more than 80 times this number of geothermal specialist staff some 3700 4000NOW! For reference, what I mean by specialized staff are people working in specialized disciplines of geothermal engineering for a minimum of 5 years. To aggravate this, Indonesia is not alone in thinking to develop geothermal resources. Australia is now talking of development tens of GWs of electricity from Hot Fractured Rock and Deep Sedimentary Aquifer projects. They are already stealing Indonesian and Philippine engineers. USA is undertaking similar development (>7GWe in the development pipeline), as are Chile, Nicaragua, Mexico, Peru. Kenya .
SOLUTION Private industry should increase cooperation with Universities to provide training facilities and opportunities for work experience etc. long term strong links on a formal basis. Need to develop a more formal program of Internships with private companies Universities need more Government (or World Bank, ADB etc) and private sector funding to provide specialized courses and to expand institutional development. Universities need to better understand industrys requirements. Universities and international agencies need to coordinate their activities to avoid negative competition
SOLUTION
Use industry-employed specialist staff, both Indonesian and foreign, to assist with vocational training at Universities formalize this to ensure that consistent program can be offered. Government should require that all operating companies provide some level of contribution to the development of the Industry e.g. Internships, Field training of University students, guest lecturing, financial contribution (?) etc. Provide improved advertising of the potential career paths available to ensure that budding students are aware of the geothermal option.
CONCLUSION
Every opportunity presents a challenge, and Indonesia has many opportunities and therefore many challenges Improved long term cooperation between Universities and Industry Long term careers are available in a clean, rewarding environment, with significant long term upside potential
PERTEMUAN ILMIAH TAHUNAN (PIT) ke XII ASOSIASI PANAS BUMI INDONESIA 06 08 November 2012 GRAND ROYAL PANGHEGAR HOTEL BANDUNG JAWA BARAT
Thanks
Sekretariat:
Ruang Geothermal Lantai 2 Area Kolam Renang PERTAMINA SIMPRUG Jl. SInabung Terusan II Simprug Jakarta Selatan.Telp: 021-36844313 Email: api.inaga@yahoo.co.id Web: www.inaga.org