SIMULATION TECHNIQUES IN THE MODELLING OF PAST CONFLICTS

Professor Philip Sabin, in!"s Colle!e Lon#on

I have been using simulation and gaming techniques in my teaching of strategic studies and military history for many years, and such techniques now form a central element of my teaching and research. Modern computing capabilities play a significant role in this approach, but (despite common perceptions to the contrary) simulations do NO need to be entirely computer!based. Manual simulation techniques are often more accessible and effective. he "ey is to stri"e an appropriate balance between intellectual and technological innovation, and thereby to attain the best of both worlds. #imulations and games complement more traditional forms of teaching and scholarship in three principal ways. $irst, they involve users more vividly than does mere passive absorption of written, oral or even video material. #econd, they reduce the hindsight problem which can afflict %linear& approaches to history, and they provide a forceful reminder of the contingent and uncertain nature of developing events. hird, they require modellers to develop a logical, comprehensive and wide!ranging understanding of what happened and why, and so they can often highlight neglected questions and provide a more robust basis for comparative analysis. #imulation gaming is particularly appropriate for the study of war, because war and games are both dialectical strategic contests between opposing wills, each struggling to prevail. ' his is why (lausewit) said that %In the whole range of human activities, war most closely resembles a game of cards&. * Military forces and defence analysts have e+ploited this similarity for generations, and they use wargaming techniques routinely for training and planning purposes, though the forward!loo"ing and classified nature of this wor" greatly limits its utility for historians of past conflicts., housands of unclassified manual and computer wargames have been published over the past -. years for use by enthusiasts "een for a vicarious e+perience of warfare, and such simulations now cover virtually every past battle and campaign./ his undeservedly neglected material does offer an important resource for innovative scholarship, as long as three associated problems can be overcome. $irst, as with 0 and film production, the dominance of commercial over academic considerations means that standards of accuracy, research and referencing are highly variable. #econd, the populist nature of the material gives it a ma1or image problem compared to more academically familiar techniques such as game theory, mathematical modelling and operational analysis.- hird, there are severe logistic challenges associated with library provision, classroom employment and non!e+pert utilisation of simulation materials, compared to more traditional media such as boo"s, articles and videos2303s.
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#ee .(ornell 4 .5llen (eds.), War and Games, (6ochester N78 9oydell, *..*), which includes a chapter by myself. (. von (lausewit), On War, edited and translated by M.:oward 4 ;.;aret, (;rinceton8 ;rinceton <niversity ;ress, '=>?), p.@?. , #ee .5llen, War Games, (Aondon8 :einemann, '=@>), ;.;erla, The Art of Wargaming, (5nnapolis8 Naval Institute ;ress, '==.), and http822www.au.af.mil2au2awc2awcgate2awc!sims.htmBgeneral. / #ee http822www.grognard.com, http822www.consimworld.com, http822www.wargamer.com, and C.3unnigan, The Complete Wargames Handbook (New 7or"8 Dilliam Morrow, *nd ed., '==*), posted online at http822www.hyw.com29oo"s2Dargames:andboo"2(ontents.htm. #ee, for e+ample, .#chelling, The Strategy of Conflict, (O+ford8 O+ford <niversity ;ress, '=?.), and #.9iddle, Military Power, (;rinceton8 ;rinceton <niversity ;ress, *../).

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I have sought to overcome these daunting obstacles in several ways. $irst, I lay great stress on identifying the limitations and methodological flaws of published simulations, especially those where accuracy is sacrificed for :ollywood!style dramatics.? #econd, I have built up my own personal collection of over a thousand published simulations which I may use for my own research and as a resource to lend to students, thereby overcoming the absence of this material from traditional libraries and archives. hird, rather than employing published simulations %off the shelf&, I use mainly my own personal designs, which build on the techniques developed by commercial designers, but which are much simpler and better documented so as to ma"e them more accessible and acceptable within an academic conte+t. his also allows me to post simulation components online so that students and others may use them in their own time. My various 95 courses use simulations as a means to an end, to illustrate topics such as aerial dogfight tactics or the strategic dynamics of the #econd ;unic or #econd Dorld Dars. :owever, for ? years I have also been running an M5 option in which students study conflict simulation as a sub1ect in its own right, and design their own mini!simulation of a battle or campaign of their choice. De focus on manual simulations to avoid any need for programming e+pertise, but the students do use computers routinely for the graphic design of their maps and counters, and the finished simulations are posted on the course website for anyone to download. > #everal past student simulations have been or are due to be published commercially, and there is also tremendous synergy between my use of simulations at 95 and M5 level E the same simulations (including one student!designed one) are used for both, and I have 1ust started employing some of the M5 students as assistants to help me run several 95 simulations simultaneously, hence greatly increasing the degree of class participation. his synergy applies not 1ust within teaching, but also between my teaching and research. My recent boo" ost !attles e+pands on traditional scholarship li"e that in the Cambridge History of Greek and "oman Warfare which I also recently co!edited, and develops a radical new simulation!based approach of %comparative dynamic modelling& to help resolve the intractable scholarly controversies over the ill!documented battles of antiquity. @ Instead of simply being presented with yet another set of personal %hunches& about what occurred, readers can actually refight the battles for themselves, and e+periment with different reconstructions and assumptions in order to gain a greater insight. My ne+t boo", Sim#lating War, will go even further, by setting simulation techniques in their proper theoretical conte+t alongside game theory and operational analysis, and by giving readers the s"ills they need to design their own simulations 1ust as my M5 students and I currently do, thereby helping with their own teaching and research. 5s with other novel scholarly techniques, simulation and gaming will doubtless continue to be controversial and poorly understood, but my e+perience demonstrates how a 1udicious and balanced combination of intellectual and technological innovation can bring real and highly synergistic benefits. :igher Fducation 5cademy wor"shop, <niversity of Darwic", 3ecember -th, *..@
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his flaw is particularly evident in computer games li"e "ome$ Total War, (#lough8 5ctivision, *../) and Call of %#ty &, (#lough8 5ctivision, *..-) because of their mass!mar"et focus, hence my preference for manual simulations which are less visually stri"ing but usually far more accurate. > http822www."cl.ac.u"2schools2sspp2ws2consim.html. 3ale Aarson&s freeware programme %(yberboard&, designed for e! mail play of published wargames, is an invaluable tool for the graphic design, online sharing and on!screen testing of our own simulation designs E see http822cyberboard.brainiac.com. @ ;.#abin, ost !attles$ "econstr#cting the Great Clashes of the Ancient World, (Aondon8 :ambledon (ontinuum, *..>), and the associated website at http822www."cl.ac.u"2schools2sspp2ws2staff2ps!lostbattles.html. #ee also ;.#abin, :.van Dees 4 M.Dhitby (eds.), The Cambridge History of Greek and "oman Warfare, * vols., ((ambridge8 (ambridge <niversity ;ress, *..>).