1
December 2013 Edition Restricted & Confidential
Copyright 2012 © Gordon T. Long All Rights Reserved general@GordonTLong.com
POLITICAL PARALYSIS & FAILURE
A Global Governance Failure
GLOBAL MACRO - Regional Update
GLOBAL MACRO TIPPING POINTS - DECEMBER 2013
11/26/2013
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December 2013
Edition Restricted & Confidential
Copyright 2012 © Gordon T. Long All Rights Reserved general@GordonTLong.com
POLITICAL PARALYSIS & FAILURE
A Global Governance Failure.
GLOBAL MACRO TIPPING POINTS - DECEMBER 2013
TIPPING POINTS
...................................................................................................................... 17
GLOBAL
MACRO:
RISK
ASSESSMENT
.................................................................................................................................................... 17
SITUATIONAL ANALYSIS .................................................................................................................................................... 17
POSITIONAL FRAMEWORK: "WE ARE HERE!"
....................................................................................................................................................... 17
Mapping the Collapse of European Democracy
....................................................................................................................................................... 23
GLOBAL TRENDS
–
THE SIX FRAMING MEGATRENDS
....................................................................................................................................... 24
GLOBAL THEMES
–
TEN STRUCTURALTHEMES FOR STRATEGY
................................................................................................................... 26
DEBT SATURATION - A COLLAPSING PONZI SCHEME
...................................................................................................................................... 28
THE RISK CONTINUUM
................................................................................................................................................................................................ 30
FALL 2013
–
“EVENT RISK” DOMINATES
................................................................................................................................................................. 32
MACRO MONITORING INSTITUTIONS ............................................................................................................................... 39
IMF, WORLD ECONOMIC OUTLOOK - JULY 2013
.................................................................................................................................................. 39
IMF, FINANCIAL STABILITY REPORT - APRIL 2013
............................................................................................................................................... 45
WEF (WORLD ECONOMIC FORUM -JANUARY 2013)
............................................................................................................................................ 50
The 17 Biggest Risks To Our Hyper-Connected World
.............................................................................................................................................. 50
RISK
SIGNALS
............................................................................................................................................................................................... 65
GEO-POLITICAL RISK ......................................................................................................................................................... 65
SYRIA
............................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 65
SYRIA - This has the Earmarks of the Kennedy Ear "Cuban Missile" Crisis
........................................................................................................... 65
SYRIA - Syrian War You Are Not Being Told About
................................................................................................................................................... 66
SYRIA - 25 Quotes
......................................................................................................................................................................................................... 67
SYRIA - What Coalition?
................................................................................................................................................................................................ 70
SYRIA - US Supporting Fully an "Al Qaeda Operation"
............................................................................................................................................. 72
SYRIA - Decision Already Taken to Bomb Syria
......................................................................................................................................................... 74
SYRIA - Market Patterns Before and Immediately After Conflict Begins
.................................................................................................................. 83
FINANCIAL & ECONOMIC RISK .......................................................................................................................................... 85
EMERGING MARKETS
................................................................................................................................................................................................. 85
EMERGING MARKETS - Crisis Temporarily Halted
.................................................................................................................................................. 85
EMERGING MARKETS - The Plight of four Asian countries - China, India, Indonesia and Japan.
..................................................................... 86
EMERGING MARKETS -
Increasing Liquidity Problem In Selected Markets
......................................................................................................... 90
EMERGING MARKETS - EU Major Contributor to EM Current Account Deficit Growth
...................................................................................... 101
EMERGING MARKETS - Insufficient BRICS Reserve Levels Prompt Russian-Chinese Support
...................................................................... 103
EMERGING MARKETS -
Global Bond Yields React To “Taper” Together
............................................................................................................ 104
EMERGING MARKETS - Negative Current Accounts + Weak(ening) International Investment Positioning
.................................................... 105
EMERGING MARKETS - BRAZIL
.............................................................................................................................................................................. 106
EMERGING MARKETS - INDIA
.................................................................................................................................................................................. 108
EMERGING MARKETS - SOUTH AFRICA
............................................................................................................................................................... 110
EMERGING MARKETS - TURKEY
............................................................................................................................................................................ 112
EMERGING MARKETS - "TAPER" Shock Waves Across Asia
.............................................................................................................................. 113
EMERGING MARKETS - India Rupee Collapse Showing Signs of Exhaustion
................................................................................................... 121
EMERGING MARKETS - Asian Credit Contraction Problems
................................................................................................................................ 122
EMERGING MARKETS -
Why Asian Markets Are Collapsing
................................................................................................................................ 124
EMERGING MARKETS -
Surging Interest Rates
..................................................................................................................................................... 128
EMERGING MARKETS -
Currencies Getting Clobbered
........................................................................................................................................ 129
EMERGING MARKETS - Crisis Worsens
.................................................................................................................................................................. 130
EMERGING MARKETS - Korean Peninsula a Black Swan Possibility
.................................................................................................................. 132
GLOBAL TAX GRAB - G20 Focusing on Finding Much Needed Tax Revenue
.................................................................................................... 135
RISK - COLLAPSING PETRODOLLAR FOUNDATION
.......................................................................................................................................... 139
RISK - GLOBAL DEBT 313% of GDP
........................................................................................................................................................................ 142
RISK - 202M GLOBALLY UNEMPLOYED
................................................................................................................................................................. 143
RISK - SIGNS APLENTY, BUT NO ONE PANICKING - YET!
................................................................................................................................ 144
RISK - CANARIES SINGING AGAIN
......................................................................................................................................................................... 146
RISK - COMPLACENCY & REPRESSED FEAR
...................................................................................................................................................... 147
RISK - TIED TO EU IN 2012
....................................................................................................................................................................................... 148
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December 2013
Edition Restricted & Confidential
Copyright 2012 © Gordon T. Long All Rights Reserved general@GordonTLong.com
RISK - GLOBAL DERIVATIVE COLLATERAL
.......................................................................................................................................................... 149
RISK - GLOBAL RISK MATRIX
................................................................................................................................................................................... 151
RISK - GLOBAL MACRO HEADWINDS / TAILWINDS
............................................................................................................................................ 151
RISK - FOOD A GROWING GLOBAL INFLATION & SOCIAL UNREST RISK
.................................................................................................... 153
RISK - INCREASINGLY DYSFUNCTIONAL CAPITALS MARKETS
..................................................................................................................... 158
RISK - RISING GEO-POLITICAL EVENT RISK
........................................................................................................................................................ 160
GLOBAL
MACRO:
RISK
LEVELS
.............................................................................................................................................................. 163
AGGREGATED GLOBAL FINANCIAL RISK INDEX ............................................................................................................ 163
BANKING RISK - LIBOR-OIS SPREAD (Updated)
.................................................................................................................................................. 164
BANKING RISK - TED SPREAD (Updated)
.............................................................................................................................................................. 164
CREDIT RISK - GLOBAL CREDIT DEFAULT SWAPS (Updated)
........................................................................................................................ 165
CREDIT RISK - EU CREDIT DEFAULT SWAPS (Updated)
................................................................................................................................... 165
CONSUMER RISK - HOUSING - RATE OF CHANGE (Updated)
.......................................................................................................................... 166
ECONOMIC RISK - ECRI LEADING INDEX (Updated)
........................................................................................................................................... 167
INFLATION RISK - MONEY SUPPLY GROWTH - M3 (Updated)
.......................................................................................................................... 168
INFLATION RISK - MONEY VELOCITY (Updated)
.................................................................................................................................................. 168
MONETARY RISK - BANK LIABILITIES (Updated)
................................................................................................................................................. 169
COST OF MONEY RISK - INTEREST RATES (Updated)
...................................................................................................................................... 169
AGGREGATED RISK LEVEL .............................................................................................................................................. 171
TIPPING
POINTS:
CHANGES
.................................................................................................................................................................... 172
TIPPING POINT MAPPING: 2013 YEAR BEGINNING UPDATE ........................................................................................ 172
TIPPING
POINTS:
TOP
5
FOCUS
-
SEPTEMBER
2013
........................................................................................................................ 181
I - RISK REVERSAL............................................................................................................................................................ 181
II - JAPAN DEBT DEFLATION ............................................................................................................................................ 183
III-BOND BUBBLE .............................................................................................................................................................. 185
IV - EU BANKING CRISIS ................................................................................................................................................... 186
V - SOVEREIGN DEBT ....................................................................................................................................................... 187
VI - CHINA HARD LANDING ............................................................................................................................................... 189
GLOBAL MACRO
................................................................................................................... 193
GLOBAL
MACRO:
ECONOMIC
OUTLOOK
............................................................................................................................................. 195
GLOBAL OUTLOOK
–
Research We Followed ................................................................................................................... 195
GLOBAL OUTLOOK - Research of Particular Note ............................................................................................................. 198
GLOBAL OUTLOOK - An Extremely Fragile Stability .......................................................................................................... 198
GLOBAL OUTLOOK - EM Crisis will make the 1997 Asian Crisis Seem like an Early Warning ........................................... 199
GLOBAL OUTLOOK - Global Deleveraging Accelerating and Developing Nations Feeling the Pain .................................... 202
GLOBAL OUTLOOK - Problems Erupting Everywhere (Signs of Implosion) ........................................................................ 204
GLOBAL OUTLOOK - Credit Fueled Globalization in Retreat .............................................................................................. 207
GLOBAL OUTLOOK - Rogoff's Sovereign Debt Default Levels ........................................................................................... 210
GLOBAL OUTLOOK - Fiscal Adjustments Required............................................................................................................ 213
GLOBAL OUTLOOK - Imbalances Continue to Increase Along With Financial Fragility ....................................................... 213
GLOBAL OUTLOOK - A 67 Million Jobs Gap ...................................................................................................................... 216
GLOBAL OUTLOOK - Center of Global Manufacturing Confirmed to be Shifting Away from developed Countries .............. 219
GLOBAL OUTLOOK - Mercantilist China the Clear Winner Globally, Mercantilist Germany Regionally ............................... 220
ECONOMIC CUTS .............................................................................................................................................................. 222
IMF To Slash Economic Growth Forecast... Again - Still Full of Hockey sticks
.................................................................................................... 222
OECD CUTS ECONOMIC OUTLOOK
....................................................................................................................................................................... 227
IMF CUTS ECONOMIC OUTLOOK
............................................................................................................................................................................ 230
ECONOMIC WARNINGS .................................................................................................................................................... 241
IMF WARNS - May 2013
.............................................................................................................................................................................................. 241
BIS WARNS - June 2013
............................................................................................................................................................................................. 247
WORLD BANK WARNS - June 2013
......................................................................................................................................................................... 254
GLOBAL
MACRO:
INDICATORS
(CHARTS)
........................................................................................................................................... 258
GLOBAL GROWTH............................................................................................................................................................. 258
GLOBAL GROWTH - GDP Forecasts Continue to Be Taken Down
...................................................................................................................... 258
GLOBAL GROWTH - Uneconomic Energy Problematic
.......................................................................................................................................... 258
GLOBAL GROWTH - Clearly Slowing
........................................................................................................................................................................ 261
GLOBAL GROWTH - Trend is clearly Down
............................................................................................................................................................. 262
GLOBAL GROWTH - Global Growth Cycle
............................................................................................................................................................... 263
GLOBAL GROWTH - Global GDP Contribution
........................................................................................................................................................ 264
GLOBAL GROWTH - Clear Signs of Degree of Slowing Since January
................................................................................................................ 265
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