Balaji Project

Technical Analysis of Cement Sector in India
Executive Summary
The main aim of the investor is to minimize the risk involved in investment & maximize the return. Today there are number of options available to investor like Post Office investment, Bank Deposit, nsurance, !utual "und, #tock !arket etc... Technical analysis is a financial markets techni$ue that claims the ability to forecast the future direction of security prices throu%h the study of past market data, primarily price and volume. This pro&ect is about a brief introduction to Technical 'nalysis, different price patterns and trends in financial markets and attempt to exploit that patterns.etc( The contents in this pro&ect are made simple so as to make a layman understands the terms used in the Technical 'nalysis. The core area of this pro&ect focuses )hat a technical analysts may employ models and tradin% rules based, for example, on price transformations, such as the *elative #tren%th ndex, movin% avera%es, throu%h reco%nition of chart patterns. This pro&ect contains some elementary statistics )hich are used in calculation )hich help in dra)in% inferences. The ob&ective of the study helps to predict or forecast the short, intermediate & lon% term price movements. +hen to buy and sell stock by analyzin% technical indicators. 'nd helps to measure to the rate of chan%e bet)een the current price and price in past and to identify overbou%ht& oversold re%ion. The art of technical analysis for it is an art is to identify trend chan%es at an early sta%e and to maintain an investment an investment posture until the )ei%ht of the evidence indicates that the trend has been reversed. Technical 'nalysis also provides a comprehensive study on stock historical price charts and predicts the future trend in the market. But still there is much controversial opinion on the validity of technical tradin% rule. t re$uires more study to prove the usefulness of technical analysis in investor,s buy/sell/hold decision makin%.
The Administrative management college, Bangalore.
INTRODUCTION ABOUT TECHNICAL ANALYSIS:

Technical analysis is a financial markets techni$ue that claims the ability to forecast the future direction of security prices throu%h the study of past market data, primarily price and volume. n its purest form, technical analysis considers only the actual price behavior of the market or instrument, on the assumption that price reflects all relevant factors before an investor becomes a)are of them throu%h other channels. Technical analysts may employ models and tradin% rules based, for example, on price transformations, such as the *elative #tren%th ndex, movin% avera%es, re%ressions, inter-market and intra-market price correlations, cycles or, classically, throu%h reco%nition of chart patterns. Genera !e"cri#ti$n Technical analysts .or technicians/ seek to identify price patterns and trends in financial markets and attempt to exploit those patterns. +hile technicians use various methods and tools, the study of price charts is primary. Technicians especially search for archetypal patterns, such as the )ell-kno)n head and shoulders reversal pattern, and also study such indicators as price, volume, and movin% avera%es of the price. !any technical analysts also follo) indicators of investor psycholo%y. 0ritics ar%ue that these 1patterns1 are simply random effects on )hich humans impose causation. They state that human see patterns that aren1t there and then ascribe value to them. Technical analysts also extensively use indicators, )hich are typically mathematical transformations of price or volume. These indicators are used to help determine )hether an asset is trendin%, and if it is, its price direction. Technicians also look for relationships bet)een price, volume, and in the case of futures, open interest. 2xamples include the relative stren%th index, and !'0D. Other avenues of study
include correlations bet)een chan%es in options 3implied volatility4 and put5call ratios )ith price. Technicians seek to forecast price movements such that lar%e %ains from successful trades exceed more numerous but smaller losin% trades, producin% positive returns in the lon% run throu%h proper risk control and money mana%ement. Technical analysis is fre$uently contrasted )ith fundamental analysis, the study of economic factors that some analysts say can influence prices in financial markets. Pure technical analysis holds that prices already reflect all such influences before investors are a)are of them, hence the study of price action alone. #ome traders use technical or fundamental analysis exclusively, )hile others use both types to make tradin% decisions. Lac% $& evi!ence 0ritics of technical analysis include )ell kno)n fundamental analysts. "or example, Peter 6ynch once commented, 70harts are %reat for predictin% the past.7 +arren Buffet has said, 7 realized technical analysis didn1t )ork )hen to the %ame, the richest people )ould be librarians8. !ost academic studies say technical analysis has little predictive po)er, but some studies say it may produce excess returns. "or example, measurable forms of technical analysis, such as non-linear prediction usin% neural net)orks, have been sho)n to occasionally produce statistically si%nificant prediction results. ' "ederal *eserve )orkin% paper re%ardin% support and resistance levels in short-term forei%n exchan%e rates 7offers stron% evidence that the levels help to predict intraday trend interruptions,7 althou%h the 7predictive po)er7 of those levels )as 7found to vary across the exchan%e rates and firms examined.7 turned the charts upside do)n and didn1t %et a different ans)er7 and 7 f past history )as all there )as
E&&icient mar%et 'y#$t'e"i" The efficient market hypothesis .2!9/ contradicts the basic tenets of technical analysis, by statin% that past prices cannot be used to profitably predict future prices. Thus it holds that technical analysis cannot be effective. 2conomist 2u%ene "ame published the seminal paper on the 2!9 in the :ournal of "inance in ;<=>, and said 7 n short, the evidence in support of the efficient markets model is extensive, and contradictory evidence is sparse8. 2!9 advocates say that if prices $uickly reflect all relevant information, no method .includin% technical analysis/ can 7beat the market.7 Developments )hich influence prices occur randomly and are unkno)able in advance. Technicians say that 2!9 i%nores the )ay markets )ork, in that many investors base their expectations on past earnin%s or track record, for example. Because future stock prices can be stron%ly influenced by investor expectations, technicians claim it only follo)s that past prices influence future prices. Ran!$m (a % 'y#$t'e"i" The random )alk hypothesis may be derived from the )eak-form efficient markets hypothesis, )hich is based on the assumption that market participants take full account of any information contained in past price movements.7The problem is that once such re%ularity is kno)n to market participants, people )ill act in such a )ay that prevents it from happenin% in the future8. Hi"t$ry The principles of technical analysis derive from the observation of financial markets over hundreds of years. The oldest kno)n example of technical analysis )as a method used by :apanese traders as early as the ;?th century, )hich evolved into the use of candlestick techni$ues, and is today a main chartin% tool. !any more technical tools and theories have been developed and enhanced in recent decades, )ith an increasin% emphasis on computer-assisted techni$ues. The Administrative management college, Bangalore. 4
)rinci# e" $& tec'nica ana y"i" Technicians say that a market1s price reflects all relevant information, so their analysis looks more at 7internals7 than at 7externals7 such as ne)s events. Price action also tends to repeat itself because investors collectively tend to)ard patterned behavior -hence technicians1 focus on identifiable trends and conditions. *ar%et acti$n !i"c$unt" everyt'in+ On most of the sizable return days the information that the press cites as the cause of the market move is not particularly important. Press reports on ad&acent days also fail to reveal any convincin% accounts of )hy future profits or discount rates mi%ht have chan%ed. Our inability to identify the fundamental shocks that accounted for these si%nificant market moves is difficult to reconcile )ith the vie) that such shocks account for most of the variation in stock returns. )rice" m$ve in tren!" Technical analysts believe that prices trend. Technicians say that markets trend up, do)n, or side)ays .flat/. 'n example of a security that had an apparent trend is 'O6 from @ovember A>>; throu%h 'u%ust A>>A. ' technical analyst or trend follo)er reco%nizin% this trend )ould look for opportunities to sell this security. 'O6 consistently moves do)n)ard in price. 2ach time the stock rose, sellers )ould enter the market and sell the stockB hence the 7zi%-za%7 movement in the price. n other )ords, each time the stock ed%ed lo)er, it fell belo) its previous relative lo) price. Hi"t$ry ten!" t$ re#eat it"e & Technical analysts believe that investors collectively repeat the behavior of the investors that preceded them. Technical analysis is not limited to chartin%, yet is al)ays concerned )ith price trends. "or example, many technicians monitor surveys of investor sentiment.. Technicians use these surveys to help determine )hether a trend )ill continue or if a reversal could developB they are most likely to anticipate a chan%e )hen the surveys report extreme investor sentiment.
Ru e,-a"e! tra!in+ *ule-based tradin% is an approach to make one1s tradin% plans by strict and clear-cut rules. Cnlike some other technical methods or most fundamental analysis, it defines a set of rules that determines all trades, leavin% minimal discretion. "or instance, a trader mi%ht make a set of rules statin% that he )ill take a lon% position )henever the price of a particular instrument closes above its D>-day movin% avera%e, and shortin% it )henever it drops belo). C$m-inin+ Tec'nica Ana y"i" (it' $t'er *ar%et .$reca"t *et'$!" :ohn !urphy in his book 7Technical 'nalysis of the "inancial !arkets7, says that the principal sources of information available to technicians are price, volume and open interest. Other data, such as indicators and sentiment analysis are considered secondary. Technical analysis is also often combined )ith $uantitative analysis and economics. "or example, neural net)orks may be used to help identify inter market relationships. ' fe) market forecasters combine financial astrolo%y )ith technical analysis. C'artin+ term" an! in!icat$r" +idely-kno)n technical analysis concepts includeE
Breakout - )hen a price passes throu%h and stays above an area of support or resistance 0ommodity 0hannel ndex - identifies cyclical trends !omentum - the rate of price chan%e !ovin% avera%e - la%s behind the price action *elative #tren%th ndex .*# / - oscillator sho)in% price stren%th *esistance - an area that brin%s on increased sellin%
AN O/ER/IE0 O. STOC1 *AR1ET:

' stock market is a private or public market for the tradin% of company stock and derivatives of company stock at an a%reed priceB both of these are securities listed on a stock exchan%e as )ell as those only traded privately. DefinitionE The expression 1stock market1 refers to the market that enables the tradin% of company stocks .collective shares/, other securities, and derivatives. Bonds are still traditionally traded in an informal, over-the-counter market kno)n as the bond market. 0ommodities are traded in commodities markets, and derivatives are traded in a variety of markets .but, like bonds, mostly 1over-the-counter1/. *ar%et #artici#ant": !any years a%o, )orld)ide, buyers and sellers )ere individual investors, such as )ealthy businessmen, )ith lon% family histories to particular corporations. Over time, markets have become more 7institutionalized7B buyers and sellers are lar%ely institutions .e.%., pension funds, insurance companies, mutual funds, hed%e funds, investor %roups, and banks/. The rise of the institutional investor has brou%ht )ith it some improvements in market operations. Thus, the %overnment )as responsible for 7fixed7 fees bein% markedly reduced for the 1small1 investor, but only after the lar%e institutions had mana%ed to break the brokers1 solid front on fees .they then )ent to 1ne%otiated1 fees, but only for lar%e institutions/.
Im#$rtance $& "t$c% mar%et:

.uncti$n an! #ur#$"e: The stock market is one of the most important sources for companies to raise money. This allo)s businesses to %o public, or raise additional capital for expansion. The li$uidity that an exchan%e provides affords investors the ability to $uickly and easily sell securities. This is an attractive feature of investin% in stocks, compared to other less li$uid investments such as real estate. Re ati$n $& t'e "t$c% mar%et t$ t'e m$!ern &inancia "y"tem: The financial system in most )estern countries has under%one a remarkable transformation. One feature of this development is disintermediation. ' portion of the funds involved in savin% and financin% flo)s directly to the financial markets instead of bein% routed via banks1 traditional lendin% and deposit operations. The %eneral public1s hei%htened interest in investin% in the stock market, either directly or throu%h mutual funds, has been an important component of this process. #tatistics sho) that in recent decades shares have made up an increasin%ly lar%e proportion of households1 financial assets in many countries. ;. The #tock !arket, individual investors & financial riskE *iskier lon%-term savin% re$uires that an individual possess the ability to mana%e the associated increased risks. #tock prices fluctuate )idely, in marked contrast to the stability of bank deposits or bonds. This is somethin% that could affect not only the individual investor or household, but also the economy on a lar%e scale. This is certainly more important no) that so many ne)comers have entered the stock market, or have ac$uired other 1risky1 investments. Irrati$na -e'avi$r: #ometimes the market tends to react irrationally to economic ne)s, even if that ne)s has no real affect on the technical value of securities itself. Therefore, the stock
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market can be s)ayed tremendously in either direction by press releases, rumors, euphoria and mass panic. Over the short-term, stocks and other securities can be battered or buoyed by any number of fast market-chan%in% events, makin% the stock market difficult to predict. F. The 0rashesE ' stock market crash is often defined as a sharp dip in share prices of e$uities listed on the stock exchan%es. n parallel )ith various economic factors, a reason for stock market crashes is also due to panic. Often, stock market crashes end up )ith speculative economic bubbles. St$c% mar%et in!ex: The movements of the prices in a market or section of a market are captured in price indices called stock market indices, of )hich there are many, e.%., the #&P, the "T#2 and the 2uro next indices. #uch indices are usually market capitalization .the total market value of floatin% capital of the company/ )ei%hted, )ith the )ei%hts reflectin% the contribution of the stock to the index. The constituents of the index are revie)ed fre$uently to include5exclude stocks in order to reflect the chan%in% business environment. Derivative in"trument": "inancial innovation has brou%ht many ne) financial instruments )hose pay-offs or values depend on the prices of stocks. #ome examples are exchan%e-traded funds .2T"s/, stock index and stock options, e$uity s)aps, sin%le-stock futures, and stock index futures. These last t)o may be traded on futures exchan%es .)hich are distinct from stock exchan%esGtheir history traces back to commodities futures exchan%es/, or traded over-the-counter. 's all of these products are only derived from stocks, they are sometimes considered to be traded in a .hypothetical/ derivatives market, rather than the .hypothetical/ stock market.
Levera+e! Strate+ie": #tock that a trader does not actually o)n may be traded usin% short sellin%B mar%in buyin% may be used to purchase stock )ith borro)ed fundsB or, derivatives may be used to control lar%e blocks of stocks for a much smaller amount of money than )ould be re$uired by outri%ht purchase or sale. 23 S'$rt "e in+: n short sellin%, the trader borro)s stock .usually from his brokera%e )hich holds its clients1 shares or its o)n shares on account to lend to short sellers/ then sells it on the market, hopin% for the price to fall. The trader eventually buys back the stock, makin% money if the price fell in the meantime or losin% money if it rose. 2xitin% a short position by buyin% back the stock is called 7coverin% a short position.7 This strate%y may also be used by unscrupulous traders to artificially lo)er the price of a stock. 9ence most markets either prevent short sellin% or place restrictions on )hen and ho) a short sale can occur. 43 *ar+in -uyin+: n mar%in buyin%, the trader borro)s money .at interest/ to buy a stock and hopes for it to rise. !ost industrialized countries have re%ulations that re$uire that if the borro)in% is based on collateral from other stocks the trader o)ns outri%ht, it can be a maximum of a certain percenta%e of those other stocks1 value. ' mar%in call is made if the total value of the investor1s account cannot support the loss of the trade. *e%ulation of mar%in re$uirements .by the "ederal *eserve/ )as implemented after the 0rash of ;<A<. Before that, speculators typically only needed to put up as little as ;> percent .or even less/ of the total investment represented by the stocks purchased.
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Ne( i""uance:
Hlobal issuance of e$uity and e$uity-related instruments totaled ID>D billion in A>>F, a A<.?J increase over the IK?< billion raised in A>>K. nitial public offerin%s . POs/ by C# issuers increased AA;J )ith AKK offerin%s that raised IFD billion, and POs in 2urope, !iddle 2ast and 'frica .2!2'/ increased by KKKJ, from I < billion to IK< billion.
Inve"tment "trate+ie":
One of the many thin%s people al)ays )ant to kno) about the stock market is, 79o) do make money investin%L7 There are many different approachesB t)o basic methods are classified as either &un!amenta ana y"i" $r tec'nica ana y"i". "undamental analysis refers to analyzin% companies by their financial statements found in #20 "ilin%s, business trends, %eneral economic conditions, etc. Tec'nica ana y"i" studies price actions in markets throu%h the use of charts and $uantitative techni$ues to attempt to forecast price trends re%ardless of the company1s financial prospects.
Taxati$n:
'ccordin% to each national or state le%islation, a lar%e array of fiscal obli%ations must be respected re%ardin% capital %ains, and taxes are char%ed by the state over the transactions, dividends and capital %ains on the stock market, in particular in the stock exchan%es. 9o)ever, these fiscal obli%ations may vary from &urisdiction to &urisdiction because, amon% other reasons, it could be assumed that taxation is already incorporated into the stock price throu%h the different taxes companies pay to the state, or that tax free stock market operations are useful to boost economic %ro)th.
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RESEARCH DESIGN:
*esearch desi%n is the blue print of the study. t provides a frame)ork under )hich the research has been conducted. t includes title of the study, problem statement, ob&ectives, scope & limitations of the study, methods used for data collection and interpretation and an overvie) of chapter scheme.
432 Tit e $& t'e )r$5ect

' #tudy on Technical analysis of cement sector in ndia.
434 Statement $& )r$- em

Technical analysts .or technicians/ seek to identify price patterns and trends in financial markets and attempt to exploit those patternsB the main problem is that these patterns are simply random effects on )hich humans impose causation.
436 Revie( $& Literature

@eftci .;<<;/ sho)ed that fe) of the rules used in technical analysis %enerate )elldefined techni$ues of forecastin%, but even )ell Mdefined rules are sho)n to be useless in prediction if the economic times series in Haussain. 9o) ever, if the processes under consideration are nonlinear, then the rules mi%ht capture some information. Tests sho)ed that this may indeed to be the case for the follo)in% avera%e rule. Taylor and 'llen .;<<A/ report the results of the survey amon% chief forei%ner exchan%e dealer based in 6ondon in @ovember ;<?? and found that at least <> percent of respondent placed some )ei%hts on technical analysis and that there )as ske) to)ards usin% technical, rather than fundamental analysis at shorter time horizons. n a comprehensive and influential study Brock, 6akonishok and 6ebaron .;<<A/ analyzed AN technical tradin% rules usin% <> years of daily stock prices from the Do) :ones industrial avera%e up to ;<?= and found that they all outperformed market.
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Blume, 2asiey and O, 9ara .;<<F/ sho) that volume provides information on information $uality that cannot be deducted from price. They also sho) that traders )ho use information contained in market statistics do better than traders )ho do not Oava&ecz and Odders M +hite .A>>F/ sho) that support and resistance levels coincide )ith peaks in depth on the limit order book and movin% avera%e forecasts reveal information about the relative position of depth on the book. They also sho) that these relationships stem from technical rules locatin% depth already in place on the limit order book
437 O-5ective $& Stu!y

;. To find out the accuracy of technical analysis in individual stock price prediction. A. To determine the trend of the stock prices usin% technical analysis. K. To predict the future share price movements of particular scripts.
438 Sc$#e $& t'e Stu!y

Technical analysis is )idely used by forex, e$uity, and commodity traders, to determine the short term as )ell as the lon% term trends of the market. The scope of technical analysis is increasin% every day, as more and more people are tryin% to learn the skills of technical analysis to earn %ood returns.
439 *et'$!$ $+y

The data collected for the research purpose are secondary data. 0losin% prices of scripts )ere collected throu%h @ational #tock 2xchan%e )ebsite. The data employed in this study comprises of five year observations on the 0ement #ector companies, 0losin% price.
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#20O@D'*P D'T'E
#econdary data refers to those data that has already been collected and analyzed by someone else. n other )ords secondary data is the information that already exists some)here havin% been collected for another purpose. t this study secondary data )as collected from various sources likeE
+eb sites Text Books Business ma%azines.
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43: Stati"tica T$$ " U"e! in Ana y"i" $& Stu!y:

;. !ovin% 'vera%e. A. *elative stren%th index.
2; *$vin+ Avera+e3
!ovin% avera%e is an indicator that sho)s the avera%e value of a security1s price over a period of time. To find the D>-day movin% avera%e you )ould add up the closin% prices .but not al)ays(more later/ from the past D> days and divide them by D>. 'nd because prices are constantly chan%in% it means the movin% avera%e )ill move as )ell. The most commonly used movin% avera%es are the A>, K>, D>, ;>>, and A>>-day avera%es. 2ach movin% avera%e provides a different interpretation on )hat the stock price )ill do. !ovin% avera%es )ith different time spans each tell a different story. The shorter the time span, the more sensitive the movin% avera%e )ill be to price chan%es. The lon%er the time span, the less sensitive or the more smoothed the movin% avera%e )ill be. !ovin% avera%es are used to emphasize the direction of a trend and smooth out price and volume fluctuations or that can confuse interpretation. The %eneral assumption behind all movin% avera%es is that once the stock price moves above the avera%e it may have substantial momentum behind it and is )orth buyin%. The opposite is true if the price of a security moves belo) the movin% avera%e. Typically, )hen a stock price moves belo) its movin% avera%e it is a bad si%n because the stock is movin% on a ne%ative trend. The opposite is true for stocks that exceed their movin% avera%e - in this case, hold on for the ride.
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4; Re ative "tren+t' in!ex:

There are a fe) different tools that can be used to interpret the stren%th of a stock. One of these is the *elative #tren%th ndex .*# /, )hich is a comparison bet)een the days that a stock finishes up and the days it finishes do)n. This indicator is a bi% tool in momentum tradin%. The *# is a reasonably simple model that anyone can use. t is calculated usin% the follo)in% formula. RSI < 2== , >2==/ ?2 @ RS;A *# Q .'v%. of n-day up closes//.'v%. of n-day do)n closes/ The *# ran%es from > to ;>>. 't around the => levels, a stock is considered overbou%ht and you should consider sellin%. n a bull market some believe that ?> is a better level to indicate an overbou%ht stock since stocks often trade at hi%her valuations durin% bull markets. 6ike)ise, if the *# approaches K>, a stock is considered oversold and you should consider buyin%. '%ain, make the ad&ustment to A> in a bear market. The smaller the number of days used, the more volatile the *# is and the more often it )ill hit extremes. ' lon%er term *# is more rollin%, fluctuatin% a lot less. Different sectors and industries have varyin% threshold levels )hen it comes to the *# . #tocks in some industries )ill %o as hi%h as =D-?> before droppin% back, )hile others have a tou%h time breakin% past =>. ' %ood rule is to )atch the *# over the lon% term .one year or more/ to determine at )hat level the historical *# has traded and ho) the stock reacted )hen it reached those levels.
43B Overvie( $& Re#$rt C'a#ter "c'eme:

C'a#ter 2: Intr$!ucti$n
This chapter includes ntroduction of Technical analysis and 0ement sector.
C'a#ter 4: Re"earc' !e"i+n

*esearch desi%n is the blue print of the study. t provides a frame)ork under )hich the research has been conducted. t includes title of the study, problem statement, ob&ectives, scope & limitations of the study, methods used for data collection and interpretation and an overvie) of chapter scheme.
C'a#ter 6: In!u"try #r$&i e

This chapter covers the industry profile.
C'a#ter 7: Ana y"i" an! Inter#retati$n $& !ata

This chapter includes the data collected for the purpose of research and the interpretation of the data, tables and %raphs are used )herever necessary.
C'a#ter 8: Summary $& .in!in+"C C$nc u"i$n" DRec$mmen!ati$n"

This chapter provides ma&or findin%s and conclusions of the study for it also includes the recommendation made by the researcher.
Bi- i$+ra#'y Annexure
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63 INDUSTRY )RO.ILE INTRODUCTION TO CE*ENT SECTOR

ndia is today the second lar%est producer of cement in )orld )ith an installed capacity of close to ;DD million tonnes per year. <D J is consumed domestically and only DJ is exported. Demand is %ro)in% at more than ;> J per annum. !ore than <> J of production comes from lar%e cement plants. There are a total of ;K> lar%e and more than KD> small cement manufacturin% units in the country. !ore than ?>J of the cement-manufacturin% units use modern environment friendly Rdry8 process. The forms of cement producedE

Ordinary Portland 0ement Portland Pozzolana 0ement Portland #la% 0ement Blended 0ement
!a&or players in ndian cement sectorE

9eidelber% 6afar%e talcementi 9olcim Hu&rat 'mbu&a 0ement '00 Cltratech 0ement ndia 0ements 0entury 0ements :aypee Hroup !adras 0ements Dalima cements
ndia,s per capita cement productionE ;K> k% per annum. +orld avera%e of per capita cement productionE !ore than A?> k% per annum.
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Bottlenecks of 0ement ndustryE
' comparison of the ener%y efficiency of ndian cement industry )ith that of other developed nations sho)s ndian companies are la%%in%. *e%ional imbalances in cement production. 9i%h transportation cost involved.
have taken five 0ement #ector 0ompanies )hich are as follo)sE ;. '00 A. C6T*'T209. K. H*'# !. F.B *6' #CP2* D.'!BC:'
;. ACC: '00 6imited is ndia,s foremost manufacturer of cement and ready mix concrete )ith a country)ide net)ork of factories and marketin% offices. 2stablished in ;<KN, '00 has been a pioneer and trendsetter in cement and concrete technolo%y. '00,s brand name is synonymous )ith cement and en&oys a hi%h level of e$uity in the ndian market. t is the only cement company that fi%ures in the list of 0onsumer #uperBrands of ndia. 'mon% the first companies in ndia to include commitment to environment protection as a corporate ob&ective, '00 has )on several prizes and accolades for environment friendly measures taken at its plants and mines. The company has also been felicitated for its acts of %ood corporate citizenship. '00 )as the first recipient of '##O09'!,s first ever @ational ')ard for outstandin% performance in promotin% rural and a%ricultural development activities in ;<=N. Decades later, P9D 0hamber of 0ommerce and ndustry selected '00 as )inner of its Hood 0orporate 0itizen ')ard for the year A>>A. Over the years, there
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have been many a)ards and felicitations for achievements in *ural and community development, #afety, 9ealth, Tree plantation, afforestation, clean minin%, 2nvironment a)areness and protection.
A. ULTRATECHE Cltratech 0ement 6imited, a Hrasim subsidiary has an annual capacity of ;= million tonnes. t manufactures and markets Ordinary Portland 0ement, Portland Blast "urnace #la% 0ement and Portland Pozzolana 0ement. CltraTech has five inte%rated plants, five %rindin% units and three terminals G t)o in ndia and one in #ri 6anka. These include an inte%rated plant and t)o %rindin% units of the erst)hile @armada 0ement 0ompany 6imited, a subsidiary, )hich has been amal%amated )ith the company in !ay A>>N.CltraTech is the country1s lar%est exporter of cement clinker. The company exports over A.D million tonnes per annum, )hich is about K> per cent of the country1s total exports. The export markets span countries around the ndian Ocean, 'frica, 2urope and the !iddle 2ast. The cement division of 6&T )as demer%ed in A>>F after Hrasim made the K> per cent open offer for e$uity shares, %ainin% control over the ne) company, christened CltraTech. *eady !ix 0oncrete is likely to see substantial %ro)th in the comin% years. *eco%nizin% the opportunities that this business )ill offer, CltraTech has commenced settin% up of *eady !ix 0oncrete plants at various places in the country. CltraTech1s subsidiaries areE Dakshin 0ements 6imited and CltraTech 0eylinco .Private/ 6imited.
2$
K. GRASI*: Hrasim ndustries 6imited, a fla%ship company of the 'ditya Birla Hroup, ranks amon% ndia1s lar%est private sector companies, )ith consolidated net revenues of *s.;F; billion and a consolidated net profit of *s.A> billion."PA>>=/. #tartin% as a textiles manufacturer in ;<F?, today Hrasim1s businesses comprise viscose staple fiber .S#"/, cement, spon%e iron, chemicals and textiles. ts core businesses are S#" and cement, )hich contribute to over <> per cent of its venues and operatin% profits. The 'ditya Birla Hroup is the )orld,s lar%est producer of S#", commandin% a A; per cent %lobal market share. Hrasim, )ith an a%%re%ate capacity of A=>,;>> tpa has a %lobal market share of ;; per cent. t is also the second lar%est producer of caustic soda .)hich is used in the production of S#"/ in ndia. n cement.%rey cement and )hite cement/, Hrasim alon% )ith its subsidiary CltraTech 0ement 6td. has a capacity of K> million tpa and is a leadin% cement player in ndia. n :uly A>>F, Hrasim ac$uired a ma&ority stake and mana%ement control in CltraTech 0ement 6imited. One of the lar%est of its kind in the cement sector, this ac$uisition catapulted the 'ditya Birla Hroup to the top of the lea%ue in ndia. 'll of Hrasim1s units have earned divisions. #O <>>A and ;F>>; certifications.
Product $uality, innovation and eco-friendliness are a hallmark of all the company1s
21
A. BIRLA SU))ER
t is a unit of Hrasim Birla #uper 0ement is a %rindin% unit of ;.D !illion Tons capacity )ith a modern technolo%y manufacturin% process involves a level of sophistication & ne) to the 0ement industry. The technolo%y )as supplied by 1Orupp Polysis7 of Hermany such as *oller Press, Hrindin% !ill. 2lectronic Packer enables for automatic packin% & )ei%hin% of 0ement Ba%s. Cnloadin% of ra) material .0linker/, )hich is bein% received from rail)ay, +a%ons are unloaded by atomised 1+a%on Tippler1. 'll the process of manufacturin% and packin% are atomized & is controlled throu%h electronic devices & P60 at 0entral 0ontrol *ooms Plant, Packin% Plant & +a%on Tippler. Three %rades of Products i.e. OP0 FK Hrade, OP0 DK & PP0 are manufactured. The brand names of these $ualities are 1*a&ashree1, 1Birla #uper1 & 1Birla Plus1 respectively. The plant po)er is connected to ;KA OS Po)er supply of !#2B %rid & havin% connected load of ;AND> O+. 'll 2lectrical & nstruments e$uipment is of latest desi%n & hi%h efficiency. The unit has )on the @ational ')ard for the 72xcellence in 2ner%y conservation7 from the 0 for the A>>>-1>> & A>>;-1>A consecutively for the outstandin% savin% in ener%y. The unit has ba%%ed ENati$na A(ar!E for 12ner%y 0onservation & 2ner%y !ana%ement1 or%anised by 0 for t)ice i.e., A>>>-1>> & A>>;-1>A. !ana%ement of 1Birla #uper 0ement1 takes keen interest in reduction of 1ener%y cost1 by implementin% ener%y conservation activities and mana%in% plant operatin% times to avail the maximum benefits from the #tate 2lectricity Board in 1Po)er factor1, 1@i%ht 0onsumption rebate & 1Bulk discount1. "ollo)in% are the ma&or 2nvironmental & #afety 'ctivities done at our plant. T nclusion of PP0 %rade 0ement to utilize )aste fly ash from po)er plant. T 'tomized handlin% of fly ash throu%h air ti%ht tankers to avoid fu%itive natural escape of fly ash to environment. T Pneumatic unloadin% systems for dust free unloadin% of fly ash from tankers. T nstallation of additional t)o dust collectors at +5T to avoid dust emission. T nstallation of %ypsum shed of AUD>>> !T to avoid land contamination. T Development of rain )ater harvestin% reservoir. T 0overin% of belt conveyors to avoid dust emission durin% transportation
22
A*BUFA CE*ENT
Am-u5a Cement" )as set up in ;<?N. n the last decade the company has %ro)n tenfold. The total cement capacity of the company is ;?.D million tonnes. ts plants are some of the most efficient in the )orld. +ith environment protection measures that are on par )ith the finest in the developed )orld. The company1s most distinctive attribute, ho)ever, is its approach to the business. 'mbu&a follo)s a uni$ue home%ro)n philosophy of %ivin% people the authority to set their o)n tar%ets, and the freedom to achieve their %oals. This simple vision has created an environment )here there are no limits to excellence, no limits to efficiency. 'nd has proved to be a po)erful en%ine of %ro)th for the company. 's a result, 'mbu&a is the most profitable cement company in ndia, and one of the lo)est cost producer of cement in the )orld. environment policy is built around t)o simple truths. One, no cement plant can flourish at the cost of the environment. 's one of the countrys lar%est producers of cement, )ith a lar%e presence around the country, )e have an obli%ation to protect the environment )e function in. 'lso, as )e discovered, bein% environmentally conscious, almost never interfered )ith runnin% a profitable business. n fact its $uite the contrary. Our efforts to achieve )orld standards in environment protection, for instance, have had the happy outcome of substantially improvin% efficiency and profitability. The fact is, a cleaner environment isnt &ust better for the people, it reduces )ear and tear on plants and machinery as )ell. Thus directly contributin% to the bottom line. Besides dust in cement plants is nothin% but cement itself, )hich )e capture and ba%. Our approach has made us the one of the )orlds most environment friendly cement companys. 'nd the most profitable.
23
73 ANALSIS AND DATA INTER)RETATION: Ca cu ati$n: 2; ACC Lt!: *O/EING A/ERAGE
%&'T C)&SI'* S.% &/ 12 ( +,IC%&'T(S A1r2 $5 3 5.! %ay2 $5 3"$.$2#5 34n2$5 34l2$5 A4g2 $5 Se12 $5 &ct2 $5 'ov2 $5 5ec2 $5 3an2$ /e62 $ %ar2 $ A1r2 $ %ay2 $ 34n2$ 34l2$ A4g2 $ Se12 $ 3!#.# 5 41#.!12 454.2 5 4! . 1
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25
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ANALYSIS D INTER)RETATIONS: 2; ACC: S'$rt Term *$vin+ Avera+e: *$vin+ Avera+e
55
n the above chart blue color sho)s the closin% price and red color sho)s the !ovin% avera%e.i.e. Kmonths/ !ovin% avera%es are used alon% )ith the price of the scrip. n the above chart, do)n)ard penetration of the risin% avera%e indicates the possibility of a further fall. 9ence, the "e si%nal is %enerated durin% :, "ebruary , :uly& October. Cp)ard penetration of a fallin% avera%e )ould indicate the possibility of the further rise. 9ence, the -uy si%nal is %enerated durin% 'pril, !ay & December The movin% avera%e is continuously fallin% from October to :anuary. The movin% avera%e is continuously risin% from 'u%ust to @ovember.
L$n+ Term *$vin+ Avera+e:
This chart is similar to previous chart but it is lon% term movin% avera%e. n the above chart, - ue color indicates closin% price. Re! color indicates lon% term movin% avera%e .i.e., ;Amonths !S/. !ovin% avera%es are used alon% )ith the price of the scrip. n the above chart, do)n)ard penetration of the risin% avera%e indicates the possibility of a further fall. 9ence, the "e December & October. Cp)ard penetration of a fallin% avera%e )ould indicate the possibility of the further rise. 9ence, the -uy si%nal is %enerated durin% #eptember & :anuary. The movin% avera%e is continuously risin% from October to :anuary. The movin% avera%e is continuously fallin% from October to 'u%ust . si%nal is %enerated durin%
5!
4; GRASI*: S'$rt Term *$vin+ Avera+e:
n the above chart, V axis indicates month and the P axis indicates the price of scrip. n the above chart, - ue color indicates closin% price. Re! color indicates lon% term movin% avera%e .i.e., K months !S/.
!ovin% avera%es are used alon% )ith the price of the scrip. n the above chart, do)n)ard penetration of the risin% avera%e indicates the possibility of a further fall. 9ence, the "e si%nal is %enerated durin% December, October & :une.
Cp)ard penetration of a fallin% avera%e )ould indicate the possibility of the further rise. 9ence, the -uy si%nal is %enerated durin% :uly, may ,& 'u%ust "rom :anuary to October there is a risin% trend and from !arch to December there is a fallin% trend.
5"
This chart is similar to previous chart but it is lon% term movin% avera%e. n the above chart, - ue color indicates closin% price. Re! color indicates lon% term movin% avera%e .i.e., ;A months !S/.
!ovin% avera%es are used alon% )ith the price of the scrip. n the above chart, do)n)ard penetration of the risin% avera%e indicates the possibility of a further fall. 9ence, the "e si%nal is %enerated durin% 'u%ust, October and :une.
Cp)ard penetration of a fallin% avera%e )ould indicate the possibility of the further rise. 9ence, the -uy si%nal is %enerated durin% !arch & :anuary. The movin% avera%e is continuously risin% from !ay to October. The movin% avera%e is continuously fallin% in the month of !arch to :anuary..
5#
6; U tratec':
*O/EING A/ERAGE
S'$rt Term *$vin+ Avera+e:
n the above chart, V axis indicates month and the P axis indicates the price of scrip. n the above chart, - ue color indicates closin% price. Re! color indicates lon% term movin% avera%e .i.e.,Kmonths !S/.
!ovin% avera%es are used alon% )ith the price of the scrip. n the above chart, do)n)ard penetration of the risin% avera%e indicates the possibility of a further fall. 9ence, the "e si%nal is %enerated durin% :anuary, October & December.
Cp)ard penetration of a fallin% avera%e )ould indicate the possibility of the further rise. 9ence, the -uy si%nal is %enerated durin% :uly & @ovember. The movin% avera%e is continuously risin% from :une to :anuary.
This chart is similar to previous chart but it is lon% term movin% avera%e. n the above chart, - ue color indicates closin% price. Re! color indicates lon% term movin% avera%e .i.e., ;Amonths !S/.
!ovin% avera%es are used alon% )ith the price of the scrip. n the above chart, do)n)ard penetration of the risin% avera%e indicates the possibility of a further fall. 9ence, the "e si%nal is %enerated durin% December,& :anuary.
Cp)ard penetration of a fallin% avera%e )ould indicate the possibility of the further rise. 9ence, the -uy si%nal is %enerated durin% :uly, !ay & :anuary. The movin% avera%e is continuously risin% from :uly to :anuary.
BIRLA SUPER
The Administrative management college, Bangalore. 1
MOVING AVERAGE
Short term moving average
n the above chart WV, axis sho)s the months and WP, axis sho)s the price scrip n the above chart Blue colour indicates the closin% Price and red sho)s the avera%e n the above chart, do)n)ard penetration of the risin% avera%e indicates the possibility of a further fall. 9ence, the "e si%nal is %enerated in "ebruary and December Cp)ard penetration of a fallin% avera%e )ould indicate the possibility of the further rise. 9ence, the -uy si%nal is %enerated 'u%ust and 'pril. The movin% avera%e continuously fallin% in :uly and December The !ovin% avera%e continuously risin% in 'pril and December
Long term
This chart is similar to previous chart but it is lon% term movin% avera%e. n the above chart, - ue color indicates closin% price. Re! color indicates lon% term movin% avera%e .i.e., ;>months !S/. !ovin% avera%es are used alon% )ith the price of the scrip. n the above chart, do)n)ard penetration of the risin% avera%e indicates the possibility of a further fall. 9ence, the "e si%nal is %enerated durin% 'pril,& December.
Cp)ard penetration of a fallin% avera%e )ould indicate the possibility of the further rise. 9ence, the -uy si%nal is %enerated durin% 'u%ust, &,'pril The movin% avera%e is continuously risin% from 'pril to December
AMBUJA CEMENT MOVING AVERAGE

Short term
n the above chart, V axis indicates month and the P axis indicates the price of scrip. n the above chart, - ue color indicates closin% price. Re! color indicates lon% term movin% avera%e .i.e.,Kmonths !S/.
!ovin% avera%es are used alon% )ith the price of the scrip. n the above chart, do)n)ard penetration of the risin% avera%e indicates the possibility of a further fall. 9ence, the "e si%nal is %enerated durin% :une,:uly, 'u%ust
Cp)ard penetration of a fallin% avera%e )ould indicate the possibility of the further rise. 9ence, the -uy si%nal is %enerated durin% !ay & #eptember. The movin% avera%e is continuously risin% from :uly to #eptember.
Long term
n the above chart, V axis indicates month and the P axis indicates the price of scrip. n the above chart, - ue color indicates closin% price. Re! color indicates lon% term movin% avera%e .i.e.,;Amonths !S/.
!ovin% avera%es are used alon% )ith the price of the scrip. n the above chart, do)n)ard penetration of the risin% avera%e indicates the possibility of a further fall. 9ence, the "e si%nal is %enerated durin% ,:uly &, 'u%ust
Cp)ard penetration of a fallin% avera%e )ould indicate the possibility of the further rise. 9ence, the -uy si%nal is %enerated durin% !ay & #eptember. The movin% avera%e is continuously risin% from :uly to #eptember.
83 Summary $& .in!in+"C Su++e"ti$n" D C$nc u"i$n: .INDINGS

ACC:
n the chart, movin% avera%e .short term & lon% term/ )as fluctuatin% month by month. t )as risin% from :uly to October & fallin% from november to :anuary. Durin% the month of 'pril the shares )ere overbou%ht, so it is the ri%ht time to sell the share. Durin% the month of :anuary the shares )ere oversold, so it is ri%ht time to buy the share
GRASI*:
The movin% avera%e of K months & ;A months, sho)s t sho)s risin% trend from December to October. t sho)s fallin% trend from @ovember to :anuary. The :anuary month )as overbou%ht re%ionB the investor can sell the scrip. The !arch month )as over sold re%ion, the investor can buy the scri.
ULTRATECH:
The movin% avera%e of K months & ;A months )as risin% from 'pril to December. t )as fallin% from October to :anuary. The 'pril !onth )as overbou%ht re%ionB the investor can sell the scrip. The :anuary month )as oversold, re%ion, the investor can buy the scrip.
BIRLA SU)ER:
The movin% avera%e of K months & ;A months )as risin% from 'pril to December. t )as fallin% from !ay to December. The December !onth )as overbou%ht re%ion the investor can sell the scrip. The #eptember month )as oversold, re%ion, the investor can buy the scrip.
A*BUFA:
The movin% avera%e of K months & ;A months )as risin% from 'pril to December. t )as fallin% from !ay to December. The 'u%ust !onth )as overbou%ht re%ion the investor can sell the scrip. The :une month )as oversold, re%ion, the investor can buy the scrip.
SUGGESTIONS
t is very difficult for an investor to select any scrip for investment in stock market. Before investin%, the investor should %o for a detailed study of the scrip, )hich includesE "undamental analysis of the company & its return for past K years.
ACC:
o 'ccordin% !ovin%-'vera%e, the prices of the scrip is fallin% from October to :anuary & the #hort-Term 'vera%e intersect in :une #o, in future the investor is been advised to sell the share. o 'ccordin% to *elative #tren%th ndex .*# /, the *# lies bet)een ?> & <> re%ion & is been in decreasin% trend. There fore in future the prices may come do)n very drastically, so investor is been advised to sell the share. GRASI*: o 'ccordin% !ovin%-'vera%e, the prices of the scrip is fallin% from October to :anuary & the #hort-Term 'vera%e intersect in :une so, in future the investor is been advised to sell the share. o 'ccordin% to *elative #tren%th ndex .*# /, the *# lies bet)een NK & ?; re%ion & is been in increasin% trend. There fore in future the prices may come up very drastically, so investor is been advised to buy the share.
"
ULTRATECH: o 'ccordin% !ovin%-'vera%e, the prices of the scrip is fallin% from October to :anuary & the #hort-Term 'vera%e intersect in &une #o, in future the investor is been advised to sell the share. o 'ccordin% to *elative #tren%th ndex .*# /, the *# lies bet)een NF & <F re%ion & is been in decreasin% trend. There fore in future the prices may come do)n very drastically, so investor is been advised to sell the share.
BIRLA SU)ER:
o 'ccordin% !ovin%-'vera%e, the prices of the scrip is fallin% from :une to December & the #hort-Term 'vera%e intersect in #eptember #o, in future the investor is been advised to sell the share. o 'ccordin% to *elative #tren%th ndex .*# /, the *# lies bet)een D? & NN re%ion & is been in decreasin% trend. There fore in future the prices may come do)n very drastically, so investor is been advised to sell the share.
A*BUFA:
o 'ccordin% !ovin%-'vera%e, the prices of the scrip is fallin% from :uly to #eptember & the #hort-Term 'vera%e intersect in october #o, in future the investor is been advised to sell the share. o 'ccordin% to *elative #tren%th ndex .*# /, the *# lies bet)een FF & =? re%ion & is been in increasin% trend. Therefore in future the prices may come up very drastically, so investor is been advised to buy the share.
CONCLUSION
n ndian scenario the investments are spread over Bank Deposits, #avin%s 0ertificate, Post Office, 2$uity !arkets and the latest !utual "und. #ince !utual "unds are sub&ect to market risk the investor take help of advisory services for financial plannin% )hich helps the investor to take calculated risk. Technical analysis is a %ood indicator that sho)s the trend movement as )ell as the varyin% de%ree of movin% avera%e movement, *ate of chan%e and *elative stren%th indicates. Technical analysis may be used for more than supplement of fundamental analysis. The recent correction in the stock market has left many investors unsettled. t is $uite common to see many investors movin% to side lines every time the market turns volatile or corrects itself. t is sure as the market starts rallyin% a%ain, some of them )ill move back $uickly but )ould be )illin% to move out even more $uickly at the next si%n of do)nside volatility. Technical analysis can offer %reat insi%ht, but if used improperly, they can also produce false si%nals. +hile trend lines have become a very popular aspect of technical analysis, they are merely one tool for establishin%, analyzin%, and confirmin% a trend. Trend lines should not be the final arbiter, but should serve merely as a )arnin% that a chan%e in trend may be very useful. n this pro&ect, the market is fallin% tremendously in the month of :une & :uly. #o, the tools )hich )ere used also sho)in% the do)n)ard trend. +e can predict that the investor can sell the share.
!$
BIBLIOGRA)HY:
Re&erence B$$%"3
#ecurity 'nalysis & Portfolio !ana%ement --By. Punithavathy Pandian. nvestment 'nalysis and Portfolio !ana%ement --By. Prasanna 0handra #ecurity 'nalysis & Portfolio !ana%ement --By. "ischer and :ordan "inancial !ana%ement --By. !. P. Ohan & P. O. :ain
0e-"ite"3
))).nseindia.com ))).stockcharts.com ))).)ikipedia.com ))).acclimited.com ))).%rasim.com ))).ultratechcement.com
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Technical Analysis of Cement Sector in India

The Administrative management college, Bangalore.

Technical Analysis of Cement Sector in India

INTRODUCTION ABOUT TECHNICAL ANALYSIS:

The Administrative management college, Bangalore.

Technical Analysis of Cement Sector in India

The Administrative management college, Bangalore.

Technical Analysis of Cement Sector in India

Technical Analysis of Cement Sector in India

The Administrative management college, Bangalore.

Technical Analysis of Cement Sector in India

The Administrative management college, Bangalore.

Technical Analysis of Cement Sector in India

AN O/ER/IE0 O. STOC1 *AR1ET:

The Administrative management college, Bangalore.

Technical Analysis of Cement Sector in India

Im#$rtance $& "t$c% mar%et:

The Administrative management college, Bangalore.

Technical Analysis of Cement Sector in India

The Administrative management college, Bangalore.

Technical Analysis of Cement Sector in India

The Administrative management college, Bangalore.

Technical Analysis of Cement Sector in India

The Administrative management college, Bangalore.

Technical Analysis of Cement Sector in India

432 Tit e $& t'e )r$5ect

434 Statement $& )r$- em

436 Revie( $& Literature

The Administrative management college, Bangalore.

Technical Analysis of Cement Sector in India

437 O-5ective $& Stu!y

438 Sc$#e $& t'e Stu!y

439 *et'$!$ $+y

The Administrative management college, Bangalore.

Technical Analysis of Cement Sector in India

The Administrative management college, Bangalore.

Technical Analysis of Cement Sector in India

43: Stati"tica T$$ " U"e! in Ana y"i" $& Stu!y:

The Administrative management college, Bangalore.

Technical Analysis of Cement Sector in India

4; Re ative "tren+t' in!ex:

The Administrative management college, Bangalore.

Technical Analysis of Cement Sector in India

43B Overvie( $& Re#$rt C'a#ter "c'eme:

C'a#ter 4: Re"earc' !e"i+n

C'a#ter 6: In!u"try #r$&i e

C'a#ter 7: Ana y"i" an! Inter#retati$n $& !ata

C'a#ter 8: Summary $& .in!in+"C C$nc u"i$n" DRec$mmen!ati$n"

Bi- i$+ra#'y Annexure

The Administrative management college, Bangalore.

Technical Analysis of Cement Sector in India

63 INDUSTRY )RO.ILE INTRODUCTION TO CE*ENT SECTOR

!a&or players in ndian cement sectorE

The Administrative management college, Bangalore.

Technical Analysis of Cement Sector in India

Bottlenecks of 0ement ndustryE

The Administrative management college, Bangalore.

Technical Analysis of Cement Sector in India

The Administrative management college, Bangalore.

Technical Analysis of Cement Sector in India

The Administrative management college, Bangalore.

Technical Analysis of Cement Sector in India

The Administrative management college, Bangalore.