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The Round Up
20 August 2009
Issue No. 159
The Round Up is a comprehensive daily note produced by the RBS Warrants
team providing an overview of market movements along with quality ideas for
warrant traders and investors.
In today’s issue
Global Market Action Scoreboard, commentary
Aussie Market Action SPI Comment, Events & Dividends
CSL (CSLVZN) Trading Update – Good result + Buyback
BSL (BSLKZI) MINI Trading Buy – Buy the dips
TLS (TLSSZX) Self Funding Buy – Buy for the dividend
Round Up Corner Stocks reporting this week
Equities
Commodities
Overnight Commentary
United States Commentary
US stocks rose for a second day as energy shares climbed on a rebound in oil and Merck led drugmakers higher, helping to offset early
weakness after China shares struggled late yesterday. Dow added 61.2pts and S&P 500 up 0.7%, albeit on low/average volumes.
Equities were also helped by speculation of a second US stimulus plan to shore up the economy.
Pharma - Merck & Co topped the Dow gainers, adding 2.5%, after winning a court ruling that prevents Teva Pharmaceutical from
selling a copy of their best selling drug, the asthma and allergy treatment Singulair, until Aug 2012.
Energy - The biggest decline in US oil inventories in 15 months, according to the US Energy Dept, saw crude push back through the
$70/barrel level, adding $3 to finish at $72.10/barrel. Exxon Mobil put on 2.3% and Chevron rose 1.8%, the two energy giants adding
over 20pts between them.
Eco - The dependably volatile Mortgage Applications number switched back to +5.6% for the week, from a -3.5% the previous week.
Resources - Alcoa was the worst of the Dow components, off 3.4%, not helped by a broker downgrade to 'neutral', as anlaysts preferre
copper exposure over aluminum, due to excess inventories. While Freeport-McMoRan Copper topped gained 1.1%.
Homebuilders - DR Horton lost 2.3% after the homebuilder was reduced to 'sell' from 'hold' by one broker, after being up 45 percent
from its lows as an 'early cyclical trade' plays out but lacks 'fundametal valuation support'. Toll Brothers also fell 1.4%.
UK Banks - A mixed night for the sector with Lloyds up 2% after an upgrade from RBS. Barclays dropped 0.5%, RBS was also off
0.5%, Standard Chartered fell 1.2% and HSBC was 2% lower, and the biggest drag on the index, after trading ex-div.
Euro Banks - UBS, down 1%, fell after the Swiss government said it would release details of about 4,450 of the group’s bank accounts
to US authorities. Credit Suisse was off 1.3%, Deutsche Bank dropped 1.3%, Commerzbank fell 0.3%, BNP sank 1.2%, SocGen was
1% lower and Banco Santander ended the session 0.3% lower.
Auto - VW, off 14%, was under heavy pressure after news reports emerged that Qatar paid Porsche just over half the current market
price for shares in VW in a multi-billion euro deal announced last week. Peugeot fell 2.1%, Renault was off 1.2% and Fiat dropped
0.1%.
Eco - BoE Governor Mervyn King and two other Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) members wanted to raise Britain's quantitative
easing programme by £75bn this month but were outvoted by their six colleagues.
Resources Commentary
Miners - ENRC, up 6.2%, rose after beating expectations as the company said it had benefitted from Chinese steel restocking. BHP
rose 1.6%, Rio climbed 1.3%, Anglo was up 0.2%, Xstrata added 1.8% and Vedanta ended 1.1% higher.
Energy - Crude prices reversed early losses to trade above $71 a barrel, as data showing demand is recovering in the United States
giving the majors a boost. BP was up 1.3%, Shell added 1%, BG Group rose 0.5%, Tullow edged 0.2% higher. In Europe Statoil added
0.2%, Repsol rose 0.25% but Total was off 0.1%.
SPI Commentary
The SPI traded down 21pts or 0.48% to 4334. Open at 4377 with a high of 4408 and a low of 4322. Volume 28,702. Overnigh the SPI
traded up 48pts to 4382.
*SPI report taken from the 9:50am open to the 4:30pm close on the previous trading day. Charts taken from IRESS
Monday AUS
US NY Fed Empire PMI
Tuesday AUS RBA Board Minutes
US NAHB Survey, PPI, housing starts
Wednesday AUS RBA Asst Gov Edey& Lowe speak
US
Thursday AUS Imports, RBA Bulletin, RBA’s Richards speaks
US
Friday AUS
US Leading index, Philadelphia Fed index, existing home sales
*Dates are indicative only and may change
Upcoming Dividends
Source: IRESS
CSL has guided to FY10 NPAT of A$1,160m-1,260m in constant-currency terms. RBS have a FY10F NPAT forecast of
A$1169.0m, which implies a growth rate of 14.6% on the pcp.
RBS Research continue to believe CSL is a high-quality franchise. The next catalyst for the stock should be a 9
September US FDA decision whether to reimburse for HPV vaccination in boys.
Source: IRESS
RBS Research find the stock appealing at these levels given its earnings leverage to a steel market recovery and a
reasonable 0.97x P/B (FY10F). RBS maintain Buy recommendation and target price of $3.55
Source: IRESS
• Broadband ARPU increased 6.5% to A$57.70. MBB SIOs doubled to 1.05m, helping lift mobile ARPU 4.8% to
A$51.84.
• Sales of IP-based products also increased at double-digit rates. With the rate of PSTN erosion reducing in 2H09
(cf 1H09) the speed-driven revenue lines helped keep total revenue growth at 2.7%, a good rate given the
economic slowdown.
• Maintaining comparable revenue growth in FY10 may be harder as unemployment rises, the A$ strengthens and
Sensis sales face a tougher business environment.
• The company says achieving its FY10 targets ‘would give us significant excess free cashflow, and all the
flexibility that brings’. We think there is enough flexibility to contribute to NBN Co, on the right terms, and still pay
an extra 2cps in dividends fully franked.
• RBS Research valuation $4.85 with a target price of $4.30, which is 12.0x FY10F EPS of 35.6c.
• Key downside risks include further margin contraction, tougher regulation and lower access prices.
• Upside risks include faster sales recovery, better cost control and higher access prices. Regulatory issues may
be clearer when proposed legislation is tabled, we think by September.
Lets take a look at how you can enhance your exposure to the TLS dividend in August through an RBS self funding
instalment. The table below shows the potential returns from a dividend play in TLSSZX on a standstill return basis (share
price remains at the purchase price). TLSSZX yields ~10.7% on a standstill return basis and a 45 day holding period
Warrant Current Price Strike Delta Expiry Average Total Dividend Grossed Net Standstill
Code (Warrant/stock) Theta Theta Up Standstill Return
Per Day Cost
TLSSZX $1.70 $3.64 $1.94 1 4-Feb-19 $0.0004 $0.02 $0.14 $0.20 $0.18 10.71%
Date Code Company Y/E NPAT (Abs) Div EPS 2H Long Short
(pre abs) div Product Product
17 Aug BSL BlueScope Steel Jun AUD 60.0 -87.0 5.0c 5.3c 0.0c BSLKZI BSLKZS
17 Aug NCM Newcrest Mining Jun AUD 464.1 -200.6 10.0c 99.1c 10.0c NCMKZG NCMKZT
18 Aug UGL United Group Jun AUD 147.5 5.0 63.0c 88.8c 34.0c UGLKZC
18 Aug AMC Amcor Jun AUD 365.0 -58.9 34.0c 43.4c 17.0c AMCKZQ
19 Aug BLD Boral Jun AUD 107.8 0.0 11.0c 18.4c 3.5c BLDKZD
19 Aug CSL CSL Ltd Jun AUD 1021 -80.0 61.0c 173.0c 31.0c CSLKZG CSLKZW
19 Aug ORG Origin Energy Jun AUD 523.7 6386 75.0c 59.9c ORGKZC ORGKZP
19 Aug QAN Qantas Airways Jun AUD 268.0 -184.8 6.0c 12.9c 0.0c QANKZJ QANKZQ
19 Aug WPL Woodside Petroleum Dec AUD 363.7 0.0 20.0c 191.8c 96.0c WPLKZJ WPLKZX
19 Aug RIO Rio Tinto Dec USD 2681 407.0 0.0c 297.6c 27.0c RIOKZE RIOKZQ
20 Aug AGK AGL Energy Jun AUD 381.6 1462 53.0c 85.7c AGKKZE AGKKZP
20 Aug ASX Aust Securities Exch Jun AUD 328.4 0.0 171.7c 191.3c ASXKZI ASXKZS
20 Aug BXB Brambles Jun USD 456.9 -95.7 23.7c 32.9c 10.0c BXBKZG BXBKZP
20 Aug LLC Lend Lease Jun AUD 293.7 -862.3 45.0c 65.7c 20.0c LLCKZJ LLCKZQ
20 Aug WES Wesfarmers Jun AUD 1482 0.0 75.0c 151.5c 35.0c WESKZG WESKZT
20 Aug AMP AMP Ltd Dec AUD 307.0 13.8c 33.1c 27.9c AMPKZH AMPKZQ
20 Aug QBE QBE Insurance Dec AUD 791.0 0.0 126c 171.0c 126.0c QBEKZF QBEKZS
20 Aug STO Santos Dec AUD 60.8 0.0 22.0c 30.6c 42.0c STOKZD STOKZT
21 Aug BBG Billabong Int Jun AUD 161.5 0.0 56.5c 64.1c 25.0c BBGKZB
21 Aug IAG Insurance Australia Jun AUD 277.6 93.0 10.5c 14.1c IAGKZF IAGKZP
*Figures in table based on RBS Research forecasts
Monday
Bluescope Steel (BSL) - underlying NPAT of a $56m was in line with RBS expectations, with management guiding for a small loss at the reported
level in 1H10. Whist RBS remain positive on the near-term, we are weary of the impacts of a rising A$ and increasing reliance on a rally in export
markets. The steel market recovery may be at hand, with BSL holding the best leverage, however we expect a normalisation to earnings is still some
distance away.
Newcrest Mining (NCM) - reported FY09 statutory profit of A$248m versus RBS Research forecast of A$252m and an underlying profit of A$483m
vs RBS Research forecast of A$464m and Reuters consensus of A$472m. EPS was 103.2cps. A dividend of 15c was declared, compared to 10c in pcp.
Tuesday
United Group (UGL) - UGL delivered underlying NPAT of A$150.3m (RBS A$147.5m) and an FY09 dividend of 64c (RBS 63c) with operating cash
flow a feature, reflecting sustained working capital discipline. With guidance for an effectively flat underlying NPAT in FY10, we expect a return to
double-digit growth in FY11 as resources spend grows, especially around LNG, and government-sponsored infrastructure spending picks up the slack
created in a credit constrained private sector
Amcor Limited (AMC) - AMC reported adjusted FY09 NPAT of A$360.5m (-2.3%). This was marginally below RBS Research forecast of A$365m.
EPS was 43.1c, which was in line with RBS forecast of 43.4c. EPS rose by 0.5% as growth benefited from the effect of the share buyback.
Wednesday
Boral Limited (BLD) - underlying NPAT of $131m vs guidance of $120m and consensus expectations of A$113.7m and declared a final dividend of
5.5cps which, at the headline level should all be taken rather well by the market. However RBS see the quality as questionable and the fact that
impairment charges have been made across the portfolio at odds with previous management assurances. Importantly no mention of the new CEO in the
announcement which may well be held over until the October AGM and guidance for FY10 is absent beyond expectations for a tough 1H10 and hope for
an improvement in 2H10 a prospect we do not find unreasonable however there are way too many question marks on quality for us to feel comfortable
including a low tax rate at 11.4%
CSL Limited (CSL) - Sales revenue grew by 30.0% to A$4.62Bn and total revenue was up 32% to A$5.04Bn. Normalised net profit after tax of
A$1020.3m (up 45.2%pcp), 1% below RBS forecast of A$1021.5m. Consensus FY09 NPAT was A$1019.3m with a wide range of A$911.0-1123.0m.
Cash flow was strong at A$1.03bn. Diluted EPS was 170.7 up 34.6%on pcp. The major difference compared to RBS forecasts was due to strong margin
growth, particularly in the CSL Behring division. FY09 EBITDA margin increased 230bp to 33.5% (from 31.2% on pcp).This was partly due to strong
royalties from sales of the HPV vaccine, and higher margin plasma products. Final dividend increased by 74% to 40cps (unfranked) vs. 23cps (franked)
in the pcp which was 9cps above RBS forecast. CSL have guided to FY10 NPAT range of A$1160-A$1260m in constant currency terms (vs. RBS at
A$1146m, and consensus at A$1148m, although this includes the impact of FY10 currency exchange rates. Using current spot rates, this would imply a
(A$90m) translation impact to FY10F earnings.
Origin Energy (ORG) - Underlying NPAT of A$530m was slightly ahead of RBS A$524m forecast (consensus A$525m), Operationally, the retail
business was the biggest negative variance with management admitting to previously locking in hedges at above market rates. The final dividend of 25c
was in-line, bringing the FY to 75c (including the 25c special). Expect today's lower guidance number to initially disappoint the market, but don't expect a
major pullback in the shareprice.
Qantas Airways (QAN) - Reported PBT of A$181m was a solid 50.9% above RBS (comparable) PBT of A$119.9m, 38% above consensus, and
towards the top end of management guidance of A$100-200m. Reported NPAT of A$117m fell out 40.6% above RBS forecast of A$83.2m. Adjusting
the result for the significant items results in revenue -1.7% below RBS forecast, while normalised PBT comes in at $408.0m, 6.3% above RBS $383.9m
forecast. Adjustments include $170m in writedowns, $106m in restructuring, $86m gain on QAN Holidays sale and $37m A380 start-up costs. Final
dividend of 0.0cps (6.0c FY09) was in-line with RBS expectations, although below consensus of 1.0cps.
Woodside Petroleum (WPL) - NPAT of A$898m beat consensus (A$880m) and RBS forecast of A$821m due to lower than expected operating
costs. The previously flagged abnormal gain of A$40-60m after tax for a positive restoration obligation provision was not realised, but booked to PP&E.
Production guidance remained unchanged at 81-86mmboe (RBS 81.5mmboe) and production is expected to pick up with new production coming on line
Thursday
AGL Energy (AGK) - Strong TIPS performance means surprise risk is positive.
Australian Securities Exchange (ASX) - Focus will be on volumes and market outlook.
Brambles (BXB) - (USD) Focus will be on extent of margin decline and commentary on progress of the CHEP US review.
Lend Lease Corp (LLC) - Expect some upside surprise from strength in cost-down programme, and beneficiary of capital light financing model.
Wesfarmers (WES) - We anticipate modest margin expansion in F&L and record Resources. Store rollout format and timetable of key interest.
AMP Limited (AMP) - Focus will be on fund flow levels, regulation commentary and acquisitions update.
QBE Insurance (QBE) - Focus will be on insurance margins and reserving strength.
Friday
Billabong (BBG) - Continued tough economic conditions in US and weak sales performance by competitors suggest downside risk to BBG, which is
unlikely to be offset by the Australian stimulus package.
Insurance Australia Group (IAG) - Focus will be on underlying insurance margin improvements and commentary on the commercial rating cycle.
Contact
Equities Structured Products & Warrants
Toll free 1800 450 005 www.rbs.com.au/warrants
Trading Products Team
Ben Smoker 02 8259 2085 ben.smoker@rbs.com
Robbie Taylor 02 8259 2018 robbie.taylor@rbs.com
Ryan Corrigan 02 8259 2425 ryan.corrigan@rbs.com
Investment Products Team
Elizabeth Tian 02 8259 2017 elizabeth.tian@rbs.com
Tania Smyth 02 8259 2023 tania.smyth@rbs.com
Robert Deutsch 02 8259 2065 robert.deutsch@rbs.com
Mark Tisdell 02 8259 6951 mark.tisdell@rbs.com
Disclaimer:
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