Integrated Climate Change Strategies for Sustainable Development of Russias Arctic Regions

(Case Study for Murmansk oblast)

Summary

oscow 2009

Integrated Climate Change Strategies for Sustainable Development of Russias Arctic Regions (Case Study for Murmansk oblast). Summary Moscow: UN Development Programme in Russia, Russian Regional Environmental Centre, 2009. The Analytical Study has been prepared by a team of Russian experts and consultants. The analysis and policy recommendations in this Report do not necessarily reflect the views of the UN system and the institutions by which the experts and consultants are employed.

Content

Introduction. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2

1. The Russian Arctic . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4 2. urmansk oblast: Natural, Climatic and Socio-Economic Features . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5 3. Climate Change and its Impacts on the Arctic Region and Murmansk oblast. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8
3.1 Current climate change. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8 3.1.1 The Arctic region. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8 3.1.2 Murmansk oblast . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9 3.2 Climate change forecasts by the mid-21st century. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10 3.3 Impacts of climate change on ecosystems, economy and population of the Arctic and Murmansk oblast. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11

Project coordinators:
Natalia Olofinskaya Julia Dobrolyubova Head of Environment Unit, UNDP Russia. Moscow Expert on Climate Change and Kyoto Protocol, Russian Regional Environmental Centre (RREC). Moscow

Authors:
Vladimir Berdin Expert of the National Methane Centre. Moscow (climate change mitigation)

4. Solutions: Mitigating Climate Change and Adapting to the Impacts . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14

4.1 4.2 Mitigation of climate change. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14 Adaptation to climate change. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15 Oil & gas extraction on the continental shelf . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17 Energy sector. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17 Development of shipping . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17 Fishing industry. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 18 Land and river transport. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 18 Infrastructure: coastal areas. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 18 Infrastructure: thawing of permafrost. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .18 Agriculture and forestry. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 18 Extreme weather events. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19 Tourism. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19 Environmental conditions. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19 Human health. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .19 Small indigenous peoples . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 20

Dinara Gershinkova Head of the Department of Scientific Programmes, Information Resources and International Co-operation at the Federal Service for Hydrometeorology and Environmental Monitoring (Roshydromet). Moscow (climate change adaptation)

5. Possible Measures for Climate Change Adaptation in Murmansk oblast. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17

5.1 5.2 5.3 5.4 5.5 5.6 5.7 5.8 5.9 5.10 5.11 5.12 5.13

Julia Dobrolyubova

Expert on Climate Change and Kyoto Protocol, Russian Regional Environmental Centre (RREC). Moscow (cross-cutting issues, introduction, conclusions, general coordination)

Vladimir Masloboyev

PhD, Deputy Chairman of the Presidium of the Kola Scientific Centre of the Russian Academy of Sciences; Director of the Institute for Problems of Industrial Ecology of the North. Apatity, Murmansk Oblast (regional aspects)

Reviewed by:
Alexey Konovalov PhD, Director of the World Ocean Centre of the State Scientific-Research Institution, Council for Production Forces Studies (SOPS), at the Ministry for Economic Development of the Russian Federation; Member of the Research & Expert Council of the Marine Panel under the Government of the Russian Federation. Moscow

6. Prospects for Climate Change Mitigation in Murmansk oblast. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 21 7. Integrated Climate Strategies in Russian Arctic Regions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 22 8. Uncertainties and Knowledge Gaps . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 26 Main Conclusions. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 27 Bibliography and Sources. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 29

Project partners:
UNDP Regional Bureau for Europe and the CIS (RBEC, Bratislava, Slovak Republic) Regional Environmental Center for Central and Eastern Europe (REC, Szentendre, Hungary)

UN Development Programme in Russia Russian Regional Environmental Centre Circulation: 300 copies. Moscow, 2009

Cover graph: Impacts of a Warming Arctic: Arctic Climate Impact Assessment, 2004

Introduction
Climate change and its consequences for natural, economic and social systems is one of the most important issues facing the international community today. The fact that the Earths climate is changing is no longer in doubt. Meteorological data testify that average temperature has increased globally by 0.74 during the last 100 years. Various scenarios and forecasts by the International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), which is the most reputable international body for climate change issues (uniting over 2500 scientists from 130 countries, including Russia), suggest the temperature on Earth may raise by between 1.8 and 4.6 before the end of this century. Temperatures in Russia are rising faster than the average for the planet. Data from Russian meteorological stations report that annual average air temperature in our country increased by 1.29 from 1907 to 2006 (versus 0.74 on a global scale). If temperatures continue to rise at the same rate, it will be nearly 2 warmer in Russia by the middle of this century compared with the start of the last century. The findings of scientists suggest that human impact is contributing to the ongoing process. Current global changes in the climate system have been linked with unprecedented growth in atmospheric concentration of so-called greenhouse gases (GHG), i.e. carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide, etc. IPCC suggests that growth in concentrations of the three major GHGs since the mid-18th century (the beginning of the industrial age) is very probably connected with human economic activity, primarily combustion of carbonic fossil fuels (oil, gas, coal, etc.) and industrial processes, as well as deforestation (since forests naturally absorb atmospheric CO2). Joint efforts to reduce GHG emissions in the medium and long term are now at the top of the international agenda in order to mitigate forecasted climate changes, prevent temperature increase and avoid dangerous and irreversible consequences in the future. Actions are needed that focus, primarily, on more efficient energy use, reduced consumption of fossil fuels, development of renewable energy sources, and new climate-friendly and low-carbon technologies. Meanwhile, the impacts of climate change are already being felt, and forecasts suggest that they will only intensify in the future. Relevant measures need to be taken at once to react and adapt to observed and forecasted climate change, so that economic costs can be reduced and sustainability of socio-economic infrastructure can be increased in advance of future negative processes. These two tasks require an integrated approach: adaptation measures should be coordinated with steps to reduce GHG emission, and vice versa. Timely design and adoption of integrated strategies for mitigation of climate change and adaptation to its impacts is an important precondition for sustainable regional development in conditions of climate volatility. As well as reducing negative impact of climate change, such strategies can support economic development, employment and health, and can generate gains through infrastructure development and reduction of electricity prices. In the future, such climate strategies should become an integral part of regional socio-economic development programmes and programmes for specific economic sectors. In Russia, climate change is most apparent in the countrys Arctic regions. During the last 100 years average temperatures in the Arctic have been growing twice as quickly as the planetary average. From the 1980s and onwards, winter and spring temperatures in most Arctic regions have been rising by 1 per decade. Increase of atmospheric temperature, rising sea levels, coastal erosion, decrease of snow-mass, melting of ice and permafrost, displacement of the natural habitat of plants and animals, and increased frequency and intensity of extreme weather events are already having an impact on industrial and social infrastructure of the Russian Arctic, threatening human health and lives, and the existence of plants and animals. The Arctic is exceptionally vulnerable to such impacts due to its extreme climate, fragile ecosystems, isolation of polar regions from the economic and political centres of the rest of the country, and underdevelopment of transport communications and other infrastructure. On the other hand, global warming may bring certain economic benefits for Arctic regions, such as, for instance, expansion of arable lands, shortening of the heating season, and development of shipping in the Arctic Ocean. The Russian Arctic is a major source of fossil fuels. Plans to increase natural resource mining and to develop industrial production in polar regions add to the importance of helping the Arctic to adapt to climate change and mitigating the effects of such change through reduction of GHG emissions. In 2008, the UN Development Programme (UNDP) in Russia and the Russian Regional Environmental Centre (RREC) initiated a pilot project for development of lowcarbon and climate-resilient territories in the Russian Arctic. Murmansk Oblast was selected for the pilot project in view of its high concentration of strategically important and climate-reliant economic sectors, as well as higher population density in the region compared with Russias other Arctic territories (at present over 40% of the Russian Arctic population lives in Murmansk oblast).

The goal of the project is to carry out holistic assessment of climate change impacts on economic development and society in a specific region of the Russian Arctic (Murmansk oblast), and to make development proposals for adaptation and GHG emission reduction strategies in various sectors of the regional economy, which could be further incorporated into socio-economic development programmes. The project also aims to bring key issues to the attention of decision-makers, business, and the general public in the Russian Arctic and in the country as a whole. Project implementation began with an international conference, Adaptation to climate change and its role in securing regional sustainable development and an expert round-table, organized in Murmansk by UNDP/RREC on May 13-14, 2008. The purpose of these events was to raise awareness of stakeholders in the region (primarily representatives of the regional administration and business) concerning issues of climate change and its consequences, and to outline priority tasks and elaborate a phased action plan for development of a regional climate strategy for Murmansk oblast. The Federal Service for Hydrometeorology and Environmental Monitoring (Roshydromet) and its territorial section in Murmansk oblast, the Administration of Murmansk oblast, and the Kola Scientific Centre of the Russian Academy of Sciences all provided substantial support during preparation and conduct of these events. The complex research presented here has been prepared by RREC and UNDP in order to encourage further progress in this direction. The document is intended to serve as technical background material for further development of sustainable development programmes in Russian Arctic regions as a whole and Murmansk oblast in particular, envisaging activities for GHG reduction and lowering vulnerability of environmental, economic, and social systems to climate change though adaptation measures. This study is the first to consolidate existing, but dispersed and unsystematized data of climate change and related risk assessment for various economic sectors, the social sphere and the environment (Section 3). It also provides an overview of relevant international, national and regional studies in this field. The study emphasizes those priority sectors of the regional economy that require practical implementation of specific adaptation measures (Section 5) and measures for GHG emission reduction (Section 6). Priority actions and projects for this purpose and for sustainable development of Murmansk oblast are formulated and scientifically justified. The planning approach suggested here is unique, since proposals for development of a regional climate strategy take account both of recommendations on adaptation to climate change and measures for reduction of GHG emission (Section 7). This integrated approach should lower decision-making costs in the future.

The study also breaks new ground by its regional focus. Until now, such studies have only been produced at a national scale. Work on the study came up against a number of gaps in data and knowledge, especially at the regional level, which limited scale of the study. These gaps indicate that further, more detailed investigations are required. Knowledge gaps and proposals for further research are described in detail in Section 8. Leading Russian experts, who took part in the preparation of this study, include representatives of federal government, academic circles, non-governmental and international organizations. Extensive use was made of scientific publications by Russian and foreign authors, official documents, proceedings of the conference on adaptation held in Murmansk in May 2008, as well as reports by various international organizations, primarily the UNDP policy guidelines, Adaptation policy frameworks for climate change [43]. The authors and co-ordinators of this study would like to thank Anatoly Semenov, Head of Murmansk Department for Hydrometeorology and Environmental Monitoring (part of Roshydromet) and Svetlana Touinova, researcher of the Economic Policy Department at the Economics Institute within the Kola Scientific Centre of the Russian Academy of Sciences, for making available the unique data on Murmansk oblast that were utilized in the study. We would also like to thank the reviewer of the study, Alexey Konovalov, for his encouraging and useful remarks.

1. The Russian Arctic

2. urmansk oblast: Natural, Climatic and Socio-Economic Features

Future socio-economic development of the Arctic zone is the subject of much discussion at present. Most prospects are connected with natural resource exploitation (mainly bio-resources and minerals) and utilization of the regions potential for transit transportation. Sustainable development of the Russian Arctic depends on two interrelated strategies: one for districts that are rich in natural resources and the other for districts where economic (industrial) development is already advanced. The interests and prospects of indigenous peoples need to be considered in both alternatives. The destabilizing effect of regional climate change on modern extraction sectors, on the transport infrastructure, which serves them, and on the traditional economy of indigenous peoples needs to be taken into account in the medium and long term. Murmansk oblast was established on May 28, 1938. It is located in the northern part of European Russia and occupies the Kola Peninsula and adjacent land to the west and south-west. The region covers an area of 144 900 km2 (0.86% of the area of Russia), with maximum distance of 400 km from north to south and 500 km from east to west. The region is bounded in the north and north-east by the Barents Sea, and in the east and south by the White Sea. Murmansk oblast has a coastline of more than 200 km. Nearly all of the territory of Murmansk oblast falls within the Arctic Circle and is part of the Arctic region. The oblast is incorporated into the North-West federal okrug (district) and borders the Republic of Karelia in the south. The western side of Murmansk oblast has borders with Norway and Finland. Population in 2007 was 850 900. [16] The polar climate in Murmansk oblast is rendered milder by influence of a branch of the warm NorthAtlantic stream (Gulf Stream), and the region is subject to abrupt changes of weather. This unpredictability is increasing as the global climate become more variable, and extreme weather events have become more frequent and more intense. Average temperature in January ranges from -8 (in the north) down to -13 (in the centre of the region), while average July temperatures range from +8 to +14 . Strongest winds are experienced along the coastline where the city of Murmansk is located. Annual average wind velocity exceeds 7 m/s, with maximum wind speed of 40 m/s, and more than 40 m/s on capes and islands. Murmansk oblast is extremely rich in mineral resources. 64 of the elements in the periodic table have been discovered in industrial quantities, and over 30 of them are being extracted by mining companies at present. The list of valuable minerals includes nickel, copper, phosphorus, iron, platinum, titanium, aluminium, and zirconium ores and other rare metals, as well as mica rocks and construction materials. These were recently complemented by oil & gas resources, discovered on the shelf of the Barents and Pechora Seas, within the economic zone of Murmansk oblast. Three gas fields (Murmanskoye, Severo-Kildinskoye, Loudlovskoye) and two gas condensate fields (Shtokman and Ledovoye) are located in the Barents Sea. The Shtokman gas-condensate field, which was discovered in 1988, is particularly promising and its development has been given top priority (Figure 2.2). Gazprom says that explored reserves at the Shtokman gas-field are at least 3.7 billion m 3 of gas and over 31 million tonnes of gas condensate. The region is covered by a patchwork of lakes, more than a hundred thousand in total. The largest are Imandra Lake (816 km 2), Umbozero (313 km 2) and Lovozero (200 km 2). There are also a number of large artificial reservoirs: Verkhnetoulomskoye (745 km 2), Knyazhegubskoye (606 km 2) and Serebryanskoye (231 km 2). There are about twenty thousand rivers in the region. Many of them have cataracts, offering much energy potential (11.7 billion kWh). [44] Cascade power generating stations have been built on the rivers Paz, Touloma, Niva, Kovda, Voronya and Teriberka. Each station has a water reservoir to regulate flow. River and

The Arctic is the Earths northern polar region. The offshore Arctic consists of the Arctic Ocean and its seas (the Greenland, Barents, Kara, Laptev, East Siberian, Chukchi and Beaufort seas), as well as Baffin Bay, Foxe Basin, straits and gulfs of the Canadian Arctic archipelago, northern parts of the Pacific and Atlantic Oceans. Arctic landmasses consists of the Canadian Arctic Archipelago, Greenland, Spitsbergen, Franz Josef Land, Novaya Zemlya, Severnaya Zemlya, New Siberian islands and Wrangel Island, and the northern coasts of the mainland of Eurasia and North America. [23] The Arctic has no generally accepted bounds. But the Arctic Circle (6633'N) is generally used as a line to mark the Arctic region. Using this definition, total area of the Arctic is 21 million km 2. Sometimes the southern border of the Arctic zone is mapped using an isotherm of +10 C for the warmest month (excluding districts where average annual temperature is above 0 ). Russia, the USA (Alaska), Canada, Norway, Sweden, Finland, Iceland, Denmark (Greenland) all have a part of their territories located in the Arctic. The State Commission on Issues of the Arctic, attached to the Council of Ministers of the USSR, ruled on April 22, 1989 that the following territories should be included in the Arctic Zone of the Russian Federation: the entire territories of the Nenets, Yamalo-Nenets, Taymyrsky (Dolgano-Nenets), and Chukotka autonomous okrugs (districts), and part of the territories of the Sakha Republic (Yakutia), Krasnoyarsk Krai (territory), Arkhangelsk and Murmansk oblasts (provinces), as well as islands located in the Russian Arctic, and internal waters, seas, continental shelf and the exclusive economic zone of the Russian Federation. Nearly a third of the total area of the Arctic pertains to Russia. [16] A more precise southern border of the Arctic zone is to be defined by a Decree of the Russian President, On the southern border of the Arctic zone of the Russian Federation, which is being drafted by the Ministry for Regional Development (Minregion) jointly with other interested parties in federal and regional government. [88] Compared with the Arctic zones of other countries, the Russian Arctic is characterized by higher population density and greater development of its economic resources. The Russian Arctic population is only 1.4% of the countrys total population, but the regions output represents nearly 11% of Russian national income and 22% of Russian exports. [14]

Fig. 2.1 Location of Murmansk oblast in relation to other regions of the Russian Federation [70] Fig.1.1 The Arctic region [69]

There are five districts (administrative subdivisions) in the oblast: Kovdorsky, Kolsky, Lovozersky, Pechengsky, and Tersky districts. The oblast has six cities with affiliated territories: Apatity, Kandalaksha, Kirovsk, Monchegorsk, Olenegorsk, and Polyarnye Zori. The region also has seven closed administrative territorial formations: Severomorsk, Polyarny, Skalisty (centred on the town of Gadzhievo), Zaozersk, Snezhnegorsk, Ostrovnoy, and Vidyaevo.

lake water in Murmansk oblast has low mineral content and is used to supply towns, villages and industrial sites in the region. The region is rich in fresh-water and marine bioresources. The White Sea and Barents Sea provide feedstock for local fisheries and processing plants. Forest cover is limited by harsh climate and vegetative conditions, and poor-quality, frigid soils. Less than 60% of the region is covered by forest. Primary forests, little affected by anthropogenic impact, are about half of the total. Murmansk oblast is home to 270 species of birds and 32 mammal species. Most beasts of prey in the Kola Peninsula belong to northern-taiga species, although tundra species are also represented. Economic geography of Murmansk oblast is more favourable than that of other Russian Arctic regions. The Barents Sea is ice-free thanks to the warm Gulf Stream and its coastline is suitable for harbours, there are significant mineral and biological resources, Russias main economic and political centres are within reach, and the oblast has international borders. These features have been decisive for socio-economic development of the region. Economic geography has determined main economic specialisations, which include natural resource exploitation, a role as transport nexus, and military facilities. Murmansk has ranked in the the top-ten Russian regions by Gross Regional Product (GRP) per capita in recent years, and ranks second in the North-West federal okrug by industrial production per capita. [17] GRP structure is dominated by transport and industry (importance of agriculture in the regional economy is limited by climate). Industrial production is dominated by mining, metallurgy, energy and fisheries. In 2006 Murmansk oblast accounted for 100% of Russias apatite and nepheline concentrate production, 16.1% of marketed fishery products (including canned fish), 18.9% of the fish catch, 9.8% of useable iron ore, and 1.8% of Russian power generation (Figure 2.3). Mines in Murmansk oblast are among the worlds main sources of phosphate raw materials (apatite concentrate) for production of mineral fertilisers. Apatite-nepheline ores also contain significant quantities of phosphorus, fluorine, strontium,

aluminium, gallium, rare-earth and rare alkaline metals. The region is the worlds only source of baddeleyite, and is second-placed in Russia by reserves and long-term extraction of copper-nickel ores. Overall, non-ferrous metallurgy accounts for more than 30% of total volume of industrial production in Murmansk oblast. Development of the region as an administrative unit was largely due to its convenient transport location, and transport is still of key importance for the regional economy. Murmansk is Russias biggest ice-free port beyond the Arctic Circle, earning it the title of Russias northern gateway. It is the first transit point for the Northern Sea Route (NSR), which links the Pacific Ocean to the Atlantic Ocean, offering a passage way from East to West. The NSR offers the only transport access to natural resources of the Far North, Siberia, and the Far East, which are destined to become the main raw-material sources of the planet in the 21 st century, according to forecasts. The NSR has strategic significance for the Russian economy and has played the key role in large-scale economic development of Russias northern and Arctic regions.

Despite its huge economic potential, Murmansk oblast is losing its population faster than any other region of the Russian Arctic. The population declined by 90 200 people in 2000-2007 to reach a level of 850 900 by the start of 2008. The share of people below working age (children and teenagers under 16) is falling, while the share of people above working age (men older than 59 and women older than 54) increased from 8.6% to 13.6% in 1989-2003. Since the elderly are among groups most at risk from climate change, this demographic trend is very important for design of adaptation measures. Results of the 2002 population census show less than 2000 representatives of indigenous peoples living in Murmansk oblast. They included 1769 Saami, 163 Nenets, and 63 from other ethnic groups. Measures in place at regional level for support of indigenous peoples are inadequate: they are underfinanced and incapable of solving existing problems. Growing interest of the international community in the Arctic region and its resource potential suggest a more important role for Murmansk oblast in the future. As well as becoming a major centre for extraction,

processing and transportation of fuel and energy resources to Asia, Europe and the USA, the region also has much potential for research, innovation and tourism. Sustainable development of these economic sectors depends on taking proper account of midand long-term climate change and timely adaptation measures in order to use any benefits from forecasted changes as efficiently as possible and to minimize possible negative consequences. In any case, economic development will lead to greater energy demand and therefore raise GHG emissions in Murmansk oblast. Hence the importance in future development of the regional economy of modern, environmentally sound, lowcarbon approaches, which do not increase impacts on climate.

apatite concentrate mica, tantalum nickel aluminum and ceramic raw materials cobalt copper ferrum
Fig.2.2 The Shtokman field will be the resource base for Russian gas exports to the Atlantic basin markets [76] Fig. 2.3 The share of Murmansk oblast in national production of metallurgic sector, 2006 [71]

3. Climate Change and its Impacts on the Arctic Region and Murmansk oblast

Sea level. Observations since 1961 show increase in average temperature of the world ocean to a depth of up to 3000 meters. Rise in sea levels is due to water warming as well as accelerated melting of continental glaciers. The global ocean level and Arctic sea level have risen by 10-20 cm over the last 100 years. [6] Permafrost. Over 90% of the Russian Arctic is located in the permafrost zone. Changing climate conditions have increased temperatures in the permafrost layer, causing deeper seasonal thawing. Measurements by experts from the Earth Cryosphere Institute at the Northern Department of the RAS [47] found that melt depth increased by average 20 cm between 1956 and 1990 at 31 stations where observations were carried out. However, unlike sea ice, glaciers and ice shields that interact directly with the atmosphere, permafrost is protected by an organic stratum of soil and vegetation. In some instances climate warming causes vegetation to grow faster and soil organics to accumulate more intensively. As a result the permafrost layer beneath the protection stratum does not melt, but grows. So contrary processes are often at work in close vicinity in the permafrost zone. [42] Extreme weather events. Roshydromet statistics recorded an increase during the last decade in the number of extreme climate phenomena (spring floods, other floods, avalanches, mudflows, hurricanes, heavy showers, extreme fire danger, etc.) and more frequent unfavourable and abrupt weather changes in Russia (Fig.3.2). The annual number of such events more than doubled from 1991 till 2008. Heavy snowfalls, extreme frosts, hurricane winds, and increased fire danger represent the biggest threats for the Arctic region. UN experts have estimated that damage to the world economy from extreme hydrometeorological events represent up to 70% of total losses from natural disasters and catastrophes [18]. World Bank estimates suggest that hydrometeorological impacts cause 30-60 billion roubles of damage annually in Russia. [57]

3.1 Current climate change

3.1.1 The Arctic region
Climate change is particularly noticeable in the Arctic as its climate is much dependent on supplies of heat and moisture from other warmer parts of the planet, which are increasing as a result of global warming. The Fourth Assessment Report of the IPCC [6] provides climate monitoring data in the Arctic region for the last century. Increase of surface air temperature, shrinkage and shorter duration of sea ice, contraction of the ice sheet and thawing of permafrost have been registered, as well as some changes in ecosystems. These global assessments are given a detailed regional insight in research findings published by Roshydromet in 2007-2008. Air temperature . Monitoring data show that air temperature in the Arctic has been increasing almost twice as fast as the average Earth temperature over the last century. Warming in the Arctic is most noticeable during the winter. Since the 1980s, temperature during the cold part of the year across most of the Arctic zone has been growing by approximately 1 per decade. Roshydromet data for 2007 indicate the warmest year in the region for the whole period of observation since 1921. In 2008 annual average air temperature in the polar region was 1.4 above the average for the observation period , [50] making 2008 the seventh warmest year in the observation period. Air temperature deviations from normal were 1.2-1.6 in 2008. Precipitation. The amount of precipitation in the Arctic has risen by 8% on average during the last century, particularly in the form of rain, with maximum increase during the fall and winter seasons. However, precipitation trends demonstrate climate change to a lesser extent than trends in temperature. [50] Run-off. Discharge of rivers into the ocean has increased across most of the Arctic, and the maximum spring run-off is now observed at earlier dates. [6] Snow cover. The area of snow cover has reduced by approximately 10% over the last 30 years. [6] Ice sheet on lakes and rivers. The frozen season has shortened due to later freezing and earlier break-up of river and lake ice. The change is between one and three weeks in some Arctic regions. [6]

Glaciers and sea ice . Sea ice is the most discernible indicator of climate change in the Arctic. Ice reduction in the Arctic region has been ongoing since the late 19 th century and became more intensive from the late 1960s. Satellite observations of Arctic ice prove substantial contraction of the ice sheet over the last 30 years (by 15-20%). Satellite data indicate that average annual area of Arctic ice has been shrinking by 2.7% per decade on average. Figures for ice coverage in the summer are particularly telling: total area of sea ice in September has declined by 7.4% during the last 10 years, and absolute minimum extent of the ice sheet for the whole satellite observation period (since 1979) was observed in 2007, when its area shrank to 4.3 million km 2. [18] Shrinkage of the summer ice sheet along the Northern Sea Route is a part of this process. Average thickness of sea ice in the Arctic basin is also diminishing. This is mainly due to reduction in the area covered by longstanding ice, and to a lesser degree due to reduction of its thickness. So older, longstanding ice is gradually being substituted by thinner, first-year ice. The area covered by old ice has shrunk by several times in recent years (Fig. 3.1).

Fig.3.2 Number of hydrometeorological hazards that caused losses to the Russian economy, 1991-2008. [18]

Nevertheless, there has been a trend towards higher temperatures in Murmansk oblast over recent years, particularly in the winter. According to an Assessment Report by Roshydromet [18], average rate of thermal change of surface air in the Kola Peninsula during 1976-2006 was 0.6 per decade. Winter temperatures have changed most (by 0.8-1.2 per 10 years) 1 while the change in summer temperatures has been less marked (0.6-0.8 per 10 years). These findings are supported by data from Roshydromets Murmansk Department for Hydrometeorology and Environmental Monitoring (Murmansk UGMS) (Fig.3.3) [55].

Fig.3.3. Geographical distribution of the linear trend in average air temperature anomalies during winter (left) and summer (right) in Murmansk oblast, 1976-2007 [55]

Fig.3.1 Dynamics of ice thickness in Arctic seas (data for February 1998 and 2008). [73] (green first-year ice; orange old ice; blue ice free)

Adaptation measures could considerably reduce such losses.

3.1.2 Murmansk oblast

Air temperature. A number of studies in the late 1990s concluded that changes of annual average air temperature in the Kola Peninsula were not considerable. For instance, a monograph, The Climate of Russia, [60] notes that the late 20th century saw warming in all Russian regions, except for the Kola Peninsula.
1 The following seasonal divisions are typical for the Kola Peninsula: November-March winter; April, May spring; June-August summer; September, October autumn.

Melting of Arctic ice accelerates the warming process due to positive feedback: contraction of the ice sheet lowers albedo (reflection capacity) of the surface, since the dark ocean takes up heat (absorbs solar radiation) to a greater extent than light-coloured ice. Continental glaciers in the Arctic are diminishing together with sea ice. Average retreat of the fringe of the Pavlov Glacier in 2005-2006 was 130 m, and maximum retreat of glacier fringes was 370 m. [73]

During 1976-2007, the most intensive average annual temperature growth was recorded in the west and south of the Kola Peninsula (0.7-0.8 C over a decade). Less intensive warming has been recorded along the Murmansk coastline and the eastern coast of the White Sea (0.5-0.6 C over a decade). [55] Data collected by Murmansk UGMS from 1961 to 2007 points clearly to increasing annual duration of the period with average daily air temperature above 8 . [55] Sea ice. Reduction of the total ice surface in the Barents Sea has been ongoing over recent years. Ice coverage declined by average 3.7% per decade in 1961-2007 (Fig. 3.5).

Year
Dates of a spring flood beginning Dates of spring flood extremes (maximum level of river run-off during a spring

Fig. 3.4 Dates of beginning and peaks of floods, Kola river [83]

Wind . Wind patterns in Murmansk oblast have changed over recent years, and there has been an overall trend towards stronger winds. As the Central Geophysical Observatory (GGO) has pointed out, this will increase wind-energy potential in the region. [57] Precipitatio n. Change of precipitation patterns on the Kola Peninsula has been season-specific, with a modest increase of precipitation in the winter period and a less significant decrease during the summer.

Run-off. Murmansk UGMS experts have established impact of observed climate changes in the Peninsula on hydrological conditions of local rivers: the start and peak of spring high water now occurs earlier than previously. (Fig.3.4) So long-term observations provide evidence of rising mean annual temperatures in the north-west sector of the Russian Arctic. It has also be found that warming during the winter period is more marked than in the summer period. Warming is accompanied by contraction of the ice sheet in Arctic seas, and average thickness of sea ice in the Arctic basin is diminishing due to gradual replacement of long established ice by thinner firstyear ice. These and other changes, including greater run-off from rivers, heavier precipitation, rising sea level, and increase in the number of extreme weather events, are also typical for Murmansk oblast.

3.2 Climate change forecasts by the mid-21st century

The Roshydromet Assessment Report [18] includes results of model simulations (for the whole range of models) for dynamics of main meteorological indicators by the mid-21 st century (2040-2060) throughout Russia, including the Arctic zone.

Unfortunately, most models to date do not provide sufficient regional detail to enable comprehensive climate change forecasts for specific territories. Assessments given in the Assessment Report reflect a general trend for Russias Arctic areas. Forecasts for Murmansk oblast are simulated on the basis of observable and expected trends for regional distribution of various parameters of climate changeability in the Arctic. Average annual temperature of surface air in Arctic regions, including Murmansk oblast, will continue rising until the middle of the 21 st century. Temperature increase in the winter will be most marked. The period of constant snow cover will decrease, precipitation will increase (especially in the winter), as will runoff from rivers, and levels and temperature of water bodies. Duration of ice cover will shorten by the mid-century, and degradation of the permafrost will speed up. Amounts of ice in Arctic seas will reduce due to diminishing extent of sea ice and thinning of old ice. Rising sea level and increased frequency and strength of hazardous weather events are to be expected. However, these forecasts carry a large degree of uncertainty, reflecting the insufficiently dense monitoring network, comparatively short series of long-term hydrometeorological instrumental records (regular monitoring in the Arctic only began in the second half of the 20 th century) and limitations of spatial resolution in climate models. Additional research into climate change in specific regions of the Russian Arctic is required, and work should be carried out in the near future on regionalization of global climate change models in order to obtain more detailed regional forecasts.

be viewed as positive, include reduction of heating costs, greater potential for agriculture and forestry, development of shipping via the Northern Sea Route, as well as improved access to Arctic regions, and expansion of mining and fisheries. (See Table 3.1). It is important to note that climate change in the Russian Arctic is aggravated by additional anthropogenic factors, including chemical pollution, over-fishing, land-use changes, population growth, and changes in way of life and economic structure. These factors tend to reinforce negative impacts of climate change. Both positive and negative impacts of climate change require in-depth study, and a categorical assessment of its consequences is problematic, since the consequences may be favourable for one economic sector, but unfavourable for others. For instance, ice melt opens up the NSR, but it reduces the habitat of polar bears. It is extremely important to develop research into climate risk assessment and potential benefits for various economic sectors of the Arctic region. Results of such research can be used in preparation of mid-term and long-term development programmes, minimizing their negative effects and maximizing the gains.

Dates

Ice-cover (%)

Temperature

3.3 Impacts of climate change on ecosystems, economy and population of the Arctic and Murmansk oblast
The effects of warming in the Arctic are already numerous and evident. Current climate changes are having considerable impact on coastal zones, biodiversity of animals and plants, human health and welfare, and on the economy and infrastructure of Arctic territories. Discernible and forecasted climate changes will have both unfavourable and favourable consequences for the natural environment, economy, and human population of the Arctic region in general, and Murmansk oblast in particular. Main negative aspects of climate change are impacts on ecosystems, environment, and infrastructure (particularly in coastal areas), public health, and traditional ways of life. Effects, which may

Fig.3.6 (left) Expected changes in surface air temperature () in winter (a) and in summer (b) by mid-21st century. 1980-1999 period was taken as a baseline [18] Fig.3.7 (right) Expected changes in precipitation pattern in winter (a) and in summer (b) by mid-21st century, %. 1980-1999 period was taken as a baseline [18]

Year Ice-cover, % Annual temperature, degrees Celcius

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Fig. 3.5 Change of mean annual air temperature at Murmansk station and of ice coverage in the Barents Sea (5-year moving averages) [83]

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Table 3.1 Assessment of climate change impacts on the environment, ecosystems, economy and population in Russian Arctic regions
Impact area Negative impacts Possible effects on ecosystems and environment Ecosystems Reduction of biodiversity, changes in species of freshwater fish; Appearance of exotic intrusive species and intensification of competition among species; Expansion of insect pests and pathogenic organisms; Diminishing habitat of polar bears, seals, some bird species; Disruption of food stock and traditional migratory routes of reindeer and other animal species. Possible increase in diversity of local fish species Infrastructure Positive impacts Impact area Negative impacts Possible effects on ecosystems and environment Threat to buildings and the transportation system, including trunk pipelines, due to soil movement in the permafrost zone; Disruption to infrastructure in coastal areas due to storms, coastal erosion and rising sea levels. Positive impacts

Timber industry

Increased risk of forest fires; Spread of pests.

Expansion of forest area

Agriculture

Appearance of new pest species; Risks related to more intense weather anomalies

Environment

Increased number and intensity of extreme weather events; Increased risk of fires; Increased concentrations of polluting substances in the atmosphere, seas and inland water bodies; Intensification of dust storms at mining slag heaps; Increased methane emission due to permafrost thawing Possible effects on the economy

Lengthening of the vegetation period and higher yields of some crops; Opportunities for cultivating new crops.

Tourism

Possible shortening of the winter tourism period due to higher temperatures during the winter; Increase of avalanches and other extreme weather events Possible effects on the human population

New opportunities for summer tourism, including marine tourism.

Sea fisheries

Reduced productivity and stocks of some fish species and other marine life

Increased productivity and stocks of some fish species. Migration of species from more southerly regions. Easier access to new mineral deposits

Human health

Natural resource extraction

Stronger winds and problems caused by iceberg fragments from disintegrating ice formations

Energy

Increase of loading and number of accidents due to abrupt changes of temperature and increased frequency of extreme weather events

Reduced heating costs; Increased hydro- and windpower potential

Increased occurrence of weather-related health conditions as a consequence of weather instability; Increased respiratory morbidity due to higher temperature and humidity; Diet modifications due to changes in available and useable sources of food; Increased psychological and social burdens related to environmental and lifestyle changes; Spread of bacteria and viruses, greater incidence of infectious diseases; Changed conditions of access to drinking water, deterioration in air quality, problems with sewage systems

Conditions of life on the southern border of the Arctic will become less arduous; Milder weather conditions in the winter may reduce the death rate during winter months.

Transportation

Reduced transport access to distant areas along winter roads using icecovered river-beds, due to change in freeze and melt times; Probability of difficult ice conditions in some sea channels, limiting use of the Northern Sea Route without recourse to ice-breakers; Disruption of transport communications due to more frequent and intensive occurrence of extreme weather events.

Development of navigation along the Northern Sea Route may have substantial impact on the regional economy. Access to a larger part of Arctic coastal waters during the summer period

Traditional lifestyle of indigenous peoples

Climate change will have negative impact on traditional occupations of indigenous peoples (hunting, fishing, and deer herding); Greater access to new mineral deposits may cause a population inflow, reducing areas inhabited by indigenous people and modifying their traditional life-style; Increase of the morbidity rate due to changes of diet and life-style.

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4. Solutions: Mitigating Climate Change and Adapting to the Impacts

4.1 Mitigation of climate change
A fundamental conclusion drawn by scientists and already accepted by politicians is that: in the 21st century climate change will be directly related to levels of anthropogenic GHG emissions. From the very beginning of international negotiations on climate change, mitigation of climate change impacts by limitation and reduction of anthropogenic GHG emissions has been one of the two key tasks within the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) and the Kyoto Protocol1. The other key task has been adaptation to climate change. With regard to GHG emissions, the focus has been on what countries can do in order to prevent further growth in concentrations of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere and resulting irreversible consequences for the environment, economy and society. The UNFCCC envisaged that by the early 21st century industrially developed countries would succeed in cutting their greenhouse gas emissions to the level of 1990. However, this goal was not legally binding and most countries were not prepared to achieve it in practice within such a limited period of time. The Kyoto Protocol, adopted in 1997, set binding targets for reduction of greenhouse gas emissions by industrially developed countries and transition countries. A 10-year preparatory period was allocated before implementation of the targets in 2008-2012. This preparatory period was to be used for development of national programmes and elaboration of market-based mechanisms, i.e. joint projects, the Clean Development Mechanism, systems for internal trading of industrial emission quotas between companies, such as the EU Emission Trading Scheme, and the Green Investment Scheme, which enables projects and programmes for additional GHG emission reductions to be partly financed by international trading of quotas. Completion of international negotiations and adoption of a new international agreement is expected in December 2009 in Copenhagen. The agreement will define tasks and obligations of countries after 2012. The negotiations will focus on possibility of achieving the ambitious, but extremely important goals of the so-called low-carbon scenario, and, in particular, on achieving 50% GHG emission reductions by 2050.
1 The Russian Federation ratified UNFCCC in 1994 (through the Federal Law No. 34-FZ, dated November 4, 1994,), and the Kyoto Protocol in 2004 (through Federal Law No. 128-FZ, dated November 4, 2004.).

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By 2006 the international community had reached a common understanding of the low-carbon development scenario. The scenario is based on a global energy development path, where the task of preventing strong negative impacts of climate change is addressed in full along with economic development of all countries and elimination of energy poverty. During 2006-2008 this qualitative definition received a quantitative description and political support. This was achieved when the G8 Summit in Germany affirmed the need to design and implement such a scenario. Presentation of global development models by environmental organisations [10], was followed by presentation of scenarios by the International Energy Agency and of national scenarios in a number of EU countries, Norway and Brazil. [37] The term low carbon is in principle close to the terms energy efficient and energy saving. These three recognized objectives have been complemented by the integrating task of solving the climate issue. This integrating task has introduced additional quantitative and temporal parameters, as follows: reduction of oil and gas consumption due to growth in prices and limitation of reserves; energy security, diversification of energy sources; technological advance for future development and competitiveness; the need to tackle climate change. This amounts to changeover to a new and different model of low-carbon economic growth, based on other technologies, and other types of fuel and energy. This will require radical reconstruction of the whole economic system and of standards of economic behaviour. Increase of atmospheric GHG concentrations is mainly due to 2 emissions from combustion of fossil fuels: coal, oil products and, to a lesser degree, natural gas. This GHG source is three times greater than deforestation (mainly in tropical countries), which is the second biggest cause. The third cause is anthropogenic emissions of methane, including emissions from animal husbandry, coal mines, and methane emitted to the atmosphere during use of natural gas (scheduled and emergency emissions and leakages of all kinds). Emissions of nitrous oxide rank fourth as a cause of GHGs. They are mainly related to application of nitrogen fertilizers and production of nitric acid and other chemical products. Finally, the biggest item among emissions from other sources is cement production.

Efforts to reduce anthropogenic impacts on climate need to be focused on reduction of 2 emissions from burning of fuel by power generators, transport and utilities. These objectives can be achieved by: improvement of energy efficiency; development of renewable energy sources, particularly wind energy; rational use of natural gas; nuclear power; carbon capture and storage (CCS). The most promising ways of mitigating climate change are improvement of energy efficiency and development of renewable energy. The greatest potential for renewable energy in Arctic regions is from wind power, small-scale hydropower, use of bio-mass (mainly timber waste), and tide energy (in some regions), provided that power surpluses can be transferred to neighbouring regions and countries. Taking account of the successful experience of Norway in CCS technology, it would be valuable to explore possibilities for applying such technology in development of oil & gas deposits on the shelf of Russias Arctic seas.

4.2 Adaptation to climate change

In accordance with the terminology adopted by the IPCC, adaptation is defined as adjustment in natural or human systems in response to actual or expected climate stimuli or their effects, which moderates harm or exploits beneficial opportunities. This implies that adaptation measures can be focused both on reduction of climate risks, and utilization of potential benefits of climate change. Examples of such activities could be conservation practices in use of scarce water resources, adaptation of existing construction norms to take account of ability of buildings to withstand future climate conditions and extreme weather phenomena, construction of protective barriers against floods, raising the level of dams in response to rising sea levels, development of droughtresistant crops, selection of forest species and forestry methods that are less vulnerable to hurricanes and fires, creation of areas and corridors to assist migration of species, etc. [27] Several types of adaptation can be distinguished, including anticipatory and planned adaptation. Adaptation deserves to be called anticipatory if it is carried out before climate change effects are observed. It is also called preventive adaptation. Planned adaptation is the result of a deliberate policy decision, based on an awareness that the conditions have changed or are about to change and that action is required to return, to maintain or achieve a desired state1.
1 Translators note: the definition in English is cited based on the Glossary of terms used in the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report, retrieved from: http://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/publications_and_data_glossary.htm

Timely action can bring a significant economic benefit and minimize threats to ecosystems, human health, economic development, property and infrastructure. Adaptation strategies should include scientific assessment of risks, vulnerability and potential benefits of expected climate changes, taking account of natural, geographical, economic, social, and other characteristics of a particular region or economic sector. It is also important to carry out economic assessment of costs and benefits of proposed adaptation measures, in order to secure the maximum effect per unit of invested funds and to built an optimum strategy for adaptation to climate change in economic decision-making. Effects of future climate change will differ from region to region. According to projections, impacts from increase of global average temperature will create benefits in some places and costs in others. Locations and population groups, which are subject to high impact and (or) have low adaptation capacities (these include inter alia polar regions), will experience costs related to climate change that are significantly higher than the overall costs at a global level. According to the IPCC report [6], global average losses assuming 4 warming may reach 1-5% of GDP annually. It is important to emphasize the uncertainty attaching to such assessments, but the range of published facts generally indicates that net value of damage from climate change will probably be quite significant and will increase over time. The Fourth Assessment Report of the IPCC [6] notes that adaptation measures entail real costs, so that adaptation initiatives are often made part of broader sectoral programmes, such as water resource planning, coastal consolidation, etc., rather than being undertaken independently. This helps to obtain additional benefits from implementation of adaptation measures and thus reduces net adaptation costs. Integration of adaptation measures into regional sectoral development strategies is seen as most efficient. Economic advisability of timely adaptation measures is emphasized in the conclusions of the second working group of the IPCC, Climate Change: Impact, Adaptation and Vulnerability (2007) [6], as well as in the report by Sir Nicholas Stern, The Economics of Climate Change (2005) [56, 58]. Cost estimates for design of adaptation measures to prevent negative effects from rising sea-level, floods, as well as transition to more sustainable alternative energy sources, confirm that the benefit of adopting intelligent solutions can be very significant. At the same time, co-benefits of GHG reduction measures could compensate a considerable part of mitigation and adaptation costs. The prevalent approach to implementation of adaptation measures can be conditionally divided into two main parts: - regional (territories, districts, whole countries, and intergovernmental regional approaches, for instance in the EU); and

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- sectoral (at the level of economic sectors: agriculture, infrastructure, health, etc., or at the level of target groups: indigenous population, elderly people, etc.). Adaptation may include both national and regional strategies as well as practical steps at a community or individual level. A sample outline for allocation of responsibilities between various decision-making levels in this field is provided below. National level Improving response to natural disasters and emergency situations. Frequency and intensity of large-scale natural incidents is bound to increase. Precautionary measures to combat disease, and preparedness for and efficient actions to deal with the consequences of such incidents need to become government priorities. Rapid response mechanisms for climate change need to be supported by a natural disaster prevention strategy at national level. Existing risk management instruments should be reinforced and new instruments should be developed. Such instruments include mapping of vulnerable zones in accordance with impact types, design of methods and models, assessment and prediction of hazards, assessment of health, environmental, economic and social impacts, and satellite and terrestrial observations. Elaboration of national adaptation strategies. The role of government is to develop comprehensive adaptation strategies based on existing parameters and socioeconomic development trends in various regions and economic sectors. Transfer of knowledge and experience of development of efficient adaptation strategies and policy at regional and local level. Information exchange on applicable adaptation measures can much reduce implementation/ development costs in various regions, municipalities and districts. International co-operation, know-how and knowledge exchange in the field of climate risk assessment, vulnerability assessment for the economy and society, design of adaptation measures, as well as co-operation in natural disaster risk management. Regional level Adaptation to climate change is an important task for regional authorities. Elaboration and timely implementation of adaptation measures is crucial for regional sustainable development in the context of climate change. The adaptation component should become an integral part of regional socioeconomic development strategies, as well as development strategies for individual economic sectors of regions. A first step would be to develop new requirements for construction, land use and change of land-use, which take account of the climate change factor. Special manuals could be developed, detailed studies of particular climate impacts

could be carried out, and immediate response activities could be proposed. It is important to realise that disadvantaged population groups will be most vulnerable to climate change impacts. So social aspects of the adaptation issue should be treated carefully, including threats to employment and impact on living standards and living conditions. Local level Many decisions that directly or indirectly concern the issue of adaptation to climate change are taken at a local level. This is the level, at which detailed knowledge on environmental and living conditions is accumulated. It is therefore natural that a key role in the process should devolve to local authorities. Behavioural changes in society and within local government structures are to a large extent dependent on the degree, to which they are property informed. Stakeholders may not yet fully grasp the scale and intensity of the changes, which are going to have to be made, and the effects on their lives and practices. The content of plans for territorial arrangements and land-use will need to be analyzed in partnership with economic actors. This may, for instance, entail decisions not to proceed with construction of buildings and settlements on territories that are prone to soil erosion or are located in zones subject to avalanche hazard. Heterogeneity of climate change effects in different regions of the planet means that adaptation measures are most needed at regional and local levels, taking account of specific natural and socio-economic characteristics. So regional and local authorities, as well as planners, should play a key role in developing adaptation solutions. At the same time, formulation of strategies for adaptation to climate change is a complex task and its efficient implementation requires co-ordinated actions at various administrative levels. There needs to be maximum involvement by representatives of business, academia, civil society and the general public to support action by decision-makers. A bank of knowledge and experience of adaptation measures in various regions of the world has already been accumulated, thanks in part to intensive international cooperation. The experience of Finland, Canada, and Denmark in climate change adaptation is of practical interest for development of a regional climate change adaptation strategy for Murmansk oblast. Approaches to choice and implementation of adaptation measures in Finland are of particular interest, due to similarities between natural and climatic conditions and structure of the economy in Finland and in the Kola Peninsula. However, there is still an overall shortage of knowledge concerning adaptation strategies in polar regions. This is despite the fact that polar regions must expect some of the most dramatic climate change impacts on the planet. The importance of filling these knowledge gaps is therefore selfevident.

5. Possible Measures for Climate Change Adaptation in Murmansk oblast

The fact of climate change and increased frequency of climatic anomalies in Murmansk oblast is undisputed. Comprehensive measures are needed for adaptation of the region and its economic sectors to the impacts of climate change and for integration of such measures into mid- and long-term socio-economic development strategies. Based on analysis of expected climate change and socio-economic characteristics of Murmansk oblast, the present Study makes a number of recommendations for climate change adaptation in the most important and most vulnerable sectors of the regional economy. Greatest practical benefits can be obtained from climate risk assessment and development of relevant adaptation measures in the mining sector, transport (particularly shipping), energy, fishing, agriculture, forestry, and tourism. These sectors are of utmost importance for future regional development and they are dependent on climate conditions and their changeability. Adaptation of coastal territories and of the regions population (particularly most vulnerable groups) requires special attention.

5.2 Energy sector

Climate change entails tougher operating conditions for energy sector facilities. Ageing and depreciation of main assets, limited capacity of the power grid and insufficient grid capacity reserves in Murmansk oblast will only aggravate climate risks. On the other hand, changing climate conditions will create new opportunities by increasing hydro- and wind-power potential, and enabling use of solar and photovoltaic energy. Possible adaptation measures: Revision of energy consumption norms during the winter and of the system for calculating required fuel reserves to reflect the shorter period when heating is necessary; Improvement of insulation in residential buildings, offices, and industrial facilities; Replacement of outdated equipment with modern equipment, which is more resistant to abrupt hydrometeorological changes and is more energy efficient; Diversification of energy sources, development of the renewable energy sector; Improvement in quality and predictive power of weather forecasting; Improvement of the system for efficient delivery of weather and climate information to users.

5.1 Oil & gas extraction on the continental shelf

Contraction of sea ice will probably ease access to oil & gas resources under the continental shelf in the Arctic Sea. However, the sea will become rougher and there will be a greater threat from icebergs due to destruction of glaciers. Possible adaptation measures: Revising construction norms and regulations for maritime structures in the shelf zone taking account of observed and forecast climate changes; Taking account of change in wave heights, and of iceberg and ice conditions in design of hydraulic installations, oil platforms and vessels, and in order to ensure safety on shipping lanes; Establishing dedicated monitoring services to monitor iceberg and ice-related risks in the Arctic Ocean; Improving system; the hydrometeorological forecasting

5.3 Development of shipping

Forecasted contraction of area and thickness of Arctic ice will increase the ice-free navigation period and enable use of vessels with reduced or zero ice-reinforcement (i.e. lighter vessels which are cheaper to build and operate). The navigation period will be longer, average speed of vessels will increase, shipping distances will be reduced and there will be a greater number of viable trajectories along the Northern Sea Route. Possible adaptation measures: Improvements to quality of monitoring and forecasting of climate changes and change of weather conditions in Arctic seas; establishing efficient local hydrometeorological safeguards systems; Establishing dedicated monitoring services to monitor iceberg and ice-related risks in the Arctic Ocean;

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Improving the system for efficient delivery of weather and climate information to users.

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 Revising and tightening of existing construction standards and regulations for operation of maritime installations to take account of expected changes of main meteorological parameters; Improvement to the forecasting system for development of shipping in the Russian Arctic zone. Probable consequences of global climate changes for maritime development are being taken into account in drafting of the Maritime Development Strategy for the Russian Federation up to 2020 and in the Longer Term and in the draft implementation plan for the Strategy.

5.4 Fishing industry

Targeted investments and legislative initiatives could do much to modernize the fishing industry in Murmansk oblast, and to enable efficient and sustainable coastal fishing that would take account of forecasted climate change and avoid damage to marine biodiversity. Possible adaptation measures: Installing a sustainable management system for the regional fishing industry, taking account of ongoing processes in ecosystems (including climate change) and the need to avoid depletion of the seas natural resources; Preparing the regional fishing industry for probable changes in the range of food-fish species and other marine bioresources, as well as alterations in catch quantities of various species; Upgrading fishing-industry facilities; Developing efficient technologies for new products at regional fishing-industry facilities; Training of highly qualified engineers; Measures to combat illegal fishing.

Possible adaptation measures: Construction of dams, mounds, walls, and barriers; use of soft structures (refilling of beaches, restoration of dunes and creation of waterlogged zones) to protect coastal zones from flooding, rising sea levels and erosion; Transfer of potentially vulnerable infrastructure sites from coastal areas to inland districts; Due account of climate change in planning of new construction in coastal areas; Development of the continental shelf, including construction of off-shore wind-parks.

5.9 Extreme weather events

Possible adaptation measures: Improvement of the system for monitoring of extreme weather events and delivery of data on risks to relevant institutions; Improvement in quality of long-term, mid-term, and shortterm forecasts of extreme weather events in the region; More frequent (higher resolution) collection and processing of data on potential sources of extreme weather conditions; Improving the system for delivery of weather and climate data to the user, including the early warning system; Development of research, technology and the equipment base for monitoring and forecasting of extreme events; Correction of action plans for early warning and response to extreme weather events, taking account of observed and forecast climate change in the region; Improvement of equipment and technology for protection of people and regions in case of emergency, and for response to such emergencies; Adaptation of existing construction standards to ensure resilience of infrastructure to new climate threats; Training and additional training of experts in the field of monitoring and forecasting of extreme natural events; Development of an insurance system for weather and climate risks. The Murmansk department of the Central Directorate of the Federal Ministry for Emergencies is working on forecasting and preventive action for extreme weather events. Regional government has already implemented a number of target programmes for lowering risks and mitigating consequences of such events.

5.11 Environmental conditions

Current economic mechanisms for managing ecological safety need to be adjusted to cope with consequences of irregular climate events. High priority should be given to: research, which assesses vulnerability of ecosystems, human populations and the economy; environmental audit of environmental protection facilities in Murmansk oblast (to gauge their capacity and efficiency in conditions of climate change); and drafting a list of urgent tasks for improving environmental security. These measures should be included in the regional environmental programme. [40]

5.7 Infrastructure: thawing of permafrost

Due account of climate change is vital in design of technical standards and regulations, and for purposes of new construction. It is also important to assess geocryological risk (risk of damage to buildings from changes in the permafrost layer) for existing infrastructure sites. If the level of risk is found to be high, it may be necessary to carry out rebuilding or move the sites out of the risk zone. New technological solutions have been developed in recent years, which reduce the impact of permafrost thawing on infrastructure. For instance, there have been improvements to the design of piles, which are used in permafrost zones. [42] Possible adaptation measures: Preparation and introduction of new technical standards and regulations that take account of climate change; Accounting for climate change when building new infrastructure facilities; Assessment of geocryological risk with respect to existing infrastructure sites; Renovation or transfer of sites from risk zones in case of major geocryological risk; Development and application of more climate-resilient construction technologies.

5.12 Human health

A Regional Action Plan is needed for reduction of negative impact of climate change on human health. The Plan should include: Support and strengthening of the regional climate change assessment system; Intensification of epidemiological activities in the region; assessment

Development of prevention programmes to minimize unfavourable consequences of climate change for human health; Tighter supervision of sanitation in regional population centres, which are most prone to climate change; Development of recommendations and action plans to protect people from consequences of emergency situations arising from climate change (natural disasters, extreme weather conditions, outbreaks of infectious diseases), including early warning plans, and information on emergency medical assistance, shelter and evacuation plans; Training for health professionals on issues of climate change impact on human health in Arctic regions. Involvement of regional research and higher education institutions; Involvement of civil servants in raising the level of public awareness concerning impact of climate change on human health; Extension of fundamental and applied research into impacts of global climate change on human health in the Russian Arctic; Increased international co-operation for assessment of the impact of climate change on health of the Arctic population, using the experience and potential of Arctic countries, the Arctic Council and its Working Groups, the Arctic Forum, European Commission, and programmes and agencies of the UN and World Bank. [34]

5.5 Land and river transport

Principal measures for land transport during the initial stages of climate change include new approaches in management of ice roads, duration of their use, and vehicle design. In the longer term it will be necessary to develop new routes and transportation methods. Greater use of waterways is a promising adaptation strategy in areas with ice-free inland rivers and water spaces. Construction of all-weather roads may be the only alternative for access to some isolated locations.

5.10 Tourism
Murmansk is one of the most promising regions in the Russian Arctic for development of tourism. Higher temperatures in winter and spring, and greater frequency of unfavourable weather events might reduce potential for winter tourism, although there is potential for changeover from a sports orientation to culture and sightseeing, particular in districts where the northern lights are most often visible. The longer summer season and expansion of shipping will help to develop summer recreational activities, including Arctic cruises and research expeditions. Such a trend is already evident in Arctic regions of Canada and the USA. [6] Murmansk region could become a destination for ecotourism, which has great potential in economically underdeveloped areas for adaptation of small indigenous peoples, whose traditional way of life is threatened by climate change. Showpiece low-carbon sites, including renewables, could attract visitors from other regions and countries of the Arctic Circle.

5.8 Agriculture and forestry

Climate change should be incorporated into plans for regional agricultural production, including review and increase of crop species. It will be important to develop weather and climate monitoring, improve quality of agrometeorological forecasts, and introduce crop species that are more climate-resilient. The principle challenge is to reduce risks to agriculture from increased frequency of extreme weather events. Projects for utilisation of biomass (mainly agricultural and forestry waste) to generate heat and power for villages, particularly in distant areas of Murmansk oblast, achieve the twin goals of adaptation and climate change mitigation. They also have concomitant economic benefits (improved energy security, reduction of electric power costs) and social benefits (job creation).

5.6 Infrastructure: coastal areas

Coastal areas of Murmansk oblast are particularly vulnerable to climate change effects due to density of population and industrial infrastructure, their importance for the regional economy, time required for implementation of relevant adaptation measures, and various institutional, financial and technological barriers. For these reasons, coastal areas should be prioritized in development of adaptation strategies.

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5.13 Small indigenous peoples

Impact of climate change on indigenous peoples is intensified by stress factors, migration to small distant settlements, increase of employment on a contractual basis and settled employment, all tending to undermine adaptation capacity of indigenous peoples and increase their vulnerability. Possible adaptation measures: State support for traditional economic activities of indigenous communities in Murmansk oblast (deerherding, fishing, etc.); Developing legal foundations to protect the rights of indigenous communities in Murmansk oblast; Establishing nature reserves with special governance status, securing access of indigenous peoples to natural resources; Creating incentives for more active involvement of indigenous people in decision-making processes at all levels (from deer farms to executive government); Training and educating indigenous peoples in new skills, which increase their competitiveness on the regional labour market; Modernizing the activities of small indigenous peoples and re-orientation from climate-dependant employment (deer-herding, fishing, hunting) to more sustainable forms of business (eco-tourism, etc.); Improving health care, developing and implementing modern health techniques for communities in remote districts and settlements; Work to assess the epidemiological situation in districts inhabited by small indigenous peoples; Demographic policy that supports birth-rate and reduces death-rate among indigenous peoples; Developing social infrastructure; Guaranteed and uninterrupted heat and power supply, development of renewable energy sources in areas inhabited by small indigenous peoples; Information provision on climate change and its effects and on possible adaptation measures for indigenous communities.

The adaptation measures proposed here for Murmansk oblast could be applied, with certain amendments, in other Russian regions, including Arctic regions. Success of the measures would be largely dependent on the following: - development of regional and local hydrometeorological monitoring systems, including collection, transmission, processing and distribution of data; - support for research into regional climate and adaptation processes in response to climate change impacts (financial support for such research, development of climate risk forecasting and assessment, improvement of technical facilities); - development of economic studies, including costbenefit analysis of proposed adaptation measures in order to secure maximum efficiency per invested unit and drafting of an optimum strategy for adaptation to climate change in order to facilitate decision making; - mandatory accounting of possible impacts of global climate change and adaptation measures within longterm national and regional conceptual, strategic and programme design; - dissemination of information to the public on the issue of climate change, its potential impacts and possible adaptation measures; - raising awareness and the level of understanding among decision-makers in organizations not directly related to environmental protection; - improving co-operation between agencies and various stakeholders (decision-makers, business, academia, civil society, the general public) at all levels; - improving international co-operation in climate change research; making use of best available foreign experience in development of adaptation measures.

6. Prospects for Climate Change Mitigation in Murmansk oblast

The table below gives a general qualitative assessment of possible steps to mitigate climate change in Murmansk oblast. The scheme is also applicable in principal for other regions of Russia, including Arctic regions.
Table 7.1 Possible steps for climate change mitigation in Murmansk oblast

Steps 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 Energy efficiency improvement Development of wind power Development of hydropower Development of solar power Development of geothermal power Utilisation of tidal and wave energy Development of bioenergy Increased share of natural gas in the fuel balance Development of nuclear power Implementation of 2 capture and storage technologies Implementation of Joint Implementation projects Implementation of projects as part of the Green Investment Scheme

Potential for Murmansk oblast Very high Very high Very high Limited Low High High High High High in the long-term High High

10

11

12

Nearly all of the strategies, which are internationally recognized as promising for mitigation of climate change, are capable of being implemented in Murmansk oblast. The 12 steps listed above can be grouped into sections. Energy efficiency improvement and energy saving should be given top priority. They can achieve the largest effects in reduction of GHG emission and they have crucial importance for economic development of the region in general, since survival under the severe climate conditions of the Kola Peninsula is largely dependent on sufficient and timely delivery of energy resources. Reflecting the importance of the energy efficiency issue for successful economic development, the President of the Russian Federation has declared a strategic goal of reducing energy consumption per unit of GDP by 40% by 2020. The Russian government has also declared strategic goals for development of renewable energy sources. The objective is to increase the share of renewables in the national energy balance to 4.5% by 2020 (their current share is about 1%). These objectives correspond to tasks 2-7 in our regional matrix. Tasks 11 and 12 are not distinct activities; they are important tools of the Kyoto Protocol, which can be applied for implementation of any of the tasks listed 1-10. Further important actions are: - to implement a policy for energy efficiency improvement in the regional economy, including incentives for installation of up-to-date equipment and technologies, radical reduction of losses in power distribution and development of power supply facilities; - to improve efficiency of heating systems by changeover to new energy sources (updated and cleaner coal-fired power stations, biomass), improve insulation of district heating networks and buildings, organize installation of metering and control equipment for consumers; - promote renewable energy sources (wind power, tides, biofuel etc.).

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7. Integrated Climate Strategies in Russian Arctic Regions

International experience and practice of other countries in the Arctic region have given the issue of adaptation to climate change equal importance with the issue of climate change mitigation. These two tasks have to be tackled in parallel. Human populations can lower their impact on climate by reducing anthropogenic GHG emissions, thereby averting many irreversible and even catastrophic consequences. Techniques must be found for forecasting inevitable processes and for adapting the economy and society to their effects in a timely fashion. According to the IPCC assessment, effective climate policy aimed at reducing the risks of climate change to natural and human systems involves a portfolio of diverse adaptation and mitigation actions adaptation and mitigation. [6] Ideally, measures and programmes for adaptation to climate change and reduction of greenhouse gas emissions at regional and municipal levels need to be united into comprehensive climate strategies. This will avoid overlapping and inefficient use of funds. For instance, improvement of sea forecasting is beneficial both for shipping and fisheries; and adaptation of indigenous peoples (maintaining deer-herding as an economic activity) is an aspect of the development of animal husbandry in the region. Integrated projects, which both reduce GHG emissions and help to reduce climate risk, are also attractive. IPCC assessment found that such synergies can be best obtained in the fields of use of biomass, energy use in buildings, and forestry. [6] Projects aimed at use of biomass (primarily agricultural and forestry waste) for heat and electricity generation in villages, particularly in remote areas, offer an example of combining adaptation projects with climate change mitigation projects. They also provide certain economic co-benefits (improvement of energy security, reduced power costs) and social benefits (employment opportunities). Introduction of new energy efficient technologies and review of energy consumption norms in buildings could also contribute both to adaptation and mitigation. Another promising direction for integrated climate projects is creation of ecovillages and development of ecotourism in northern areas. This could facilitate conversion of undeveloped land and economically underdeveloped areas of the region into recreational sites, and assist in adaptation of small indigenous populations, whose traditional life-style and economic activities are threatened by climate changes. Development of showpiece low-carbon facilities, including renewable energy sites, could create a tourist attraction for visitors from other regions and countries of the Arctic zone. All of these projects are suitable for development in Arctic regions in general, and in Murmansk oblast in particular. Mid- and long-term climate change forecasts suggest that future sustainable development of Russian Arctic regions and their economies will depend on integrated and dynamic planning. It will be extremely important to take account of the climate factor when preparing development plans for Arctic territories and economic sectors, and to elaborate comprehensive regional climate strategies. Such strategies should incorporate measures for mitigation of climate change, adaptation to observed or forecasted impacts, and major scientific and technological inputs, including development of new climate-resilient and low-carbon technologies, climate research, climate risk assessment, efficiency assessment for various response measures, and introduction of financial and institutional mechanisms for implementation of these tasks. Design and timely adoption of integrated climate strategies is crucial for sustainable development of Arctic regions in conditions of climate change. Such strategies can reduce negative impact of climate change, and also deliver additional benefits for economic development, employment, and health, as well as speeding up implementation of sustainable, energy-efficient and low-carbon technologies in the economy of the Arctic region, strengthening infrastructure and reducing electricity prices. Comprehensive climate strategies should be an integral part of regional plans for socio-economic development in the future. Some activities related to climate change can be included in sectoral programmes of Arctic regions (for instance, establishment of a climate monitoring system, targeted work with indigenous populations and other particularly vulnerable groups, etc.). However, the greater part of mitigation and adaptation measures touch on several different areas, so that intersectoral and interdisciplinary links and interactions need to be taken into account during their implementation. The key role in elaborating integrated climate strategies should be vested in regional and local authorities and experts responsible for territorial planning. But their elaboration also requires coordination between decision-makers, business representatives, academia, civil society and the

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general public at various administrative levels: local, regional and federal. Benefits of mutual co-operation between stakeholders to obtain long-term positive outcomes and not merely short-term gains need to be understood. Co-operation and dialogue become crucial terms in the process of studying climate change and managing climate risks. Raising awareness and understanding among stakeholders of climate change and its effects on human life, environment and society, is the most important factor for successful implementation of climate-related programmes and measures. So unbiased presentation of climate change issues by popularizing scientific findings in the field via mass media, fostering an environmentally concerned culture, encouraging energy and resource-saving behaviour, and informing the public how to behave in various critical situations should also become an important element of regional climate strategy. Adoption of a National Strategy/Programme/ Action Plan for climate change is an important step for encouragement of activities related to climate change. Such a document would operate as a further development of the Russian Climate Doctrine and would define territories, economic sectors and population groups, which are particularly vulnerable to climate change, as well as proposing first steps for addressing the challenges. The document could serve as a model for regions and deliver the necessary political message on importance of the climate change factor for administrative and economic decisions. For the time being, unfortunately, there are no regional/ federal development programmes that distinctly incorporate the climate factor (through inclusion of GHG emission reduction activities or climate change adaptation measures). There are a few examples of development programmes that in some way consider the climate issue, though not as a primary factor (notably, The Concept for long-term socioeconomic development of the Russian Federation until 2020). It is a common delusion of many decision-makers that climate aspects are only an environmental issue, unconnected with practical economic priorities and actions. Many people still fail to recognize that tackling climate change is a win-win approach: mitigation and adaptation measures concurrently promote improvement of energy efficiency, development of renewable energy and other favourable outcomes. There is hope that this will change, due to necessity of meeting national objectives, set by the President of the Russian Federation, for reduction of GHG emissions by 10-15% by 2020 in comparison with 1990 and for energy-efficiency improvement of the Russian economy by 40% in 2020 compared with 2007, and also due to adoption of the Climate Doctrine of the Russian Federation.

Recommendations on further climate policy actions for the Russian Arctic have been developed (Table 7.1). These recommendations are divided into immediate (implementation during 2009-2012), midterm (2013-2020) and long-term (up to 2050). Most of the proposed short-term (immediate) measures do not require large investments, are realistic, and can be incorporated into existing or draft regional socio-economic development strategies without major cost. Larger financial investments and broader involvement at federal, regional and local level will be required in order to implement further actions, although development of science and technology should help to reduce the costs and shorten implementation periods. Awareness-raising and greater co-operation with other Arctic regions of Russia and foreign countries will have a key role at all stages. Many approaches to climate change mitigation and adaptation have been successfully tested in other countries. The experience of Finland, Canada, and Denmark are of practical interest for Murmansk oblast. Approaches to design and implementation of adaptation measures in Finland deserve special attention, due to similar natural and climatic conditions, similarities between economic structure in Finland and the Kola Peninsula, and traditionally close economic relations between the two regions. The experience and potential of such international organizations as the UNDP, UNEP, OECD, World Bank and others is also available to be drawn upon.

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Table 7.1 Climate policy priorities in Arctic regions of Russia

Activities Executing agency Short-term objectives (up to 2012) Development of a National Strategy/Programme/Action Plan as a follow-up to the Climate Doctrine Establishment in every region of the Russian Arctic of a special body responsible for climate change, clean energy, and development of climate policy (creation of such bodies is also desirable at municipal level) Development of integrated climate strategies for Russias Arctic regions Regional assessment of economic vulnerability and impacts on population, including indigenous population Development of a hydrometeorological monitoring system, creation of open data bases on climate change Revision of sectoral regulations (e.g. building norms and regulations) to take account of climate change Inventory of anthropogenic GHG emissions and leakages in Arctic regions, recommendations on immediate measures to address reduction of GHG emissions Assessing potential for economically efficient use of renewable energy sources and feasibility studies for their use Energy saving activities Development of mechanisms for sustainable consumption of energy resources, including pilot projects in this field Carrying out priority tasks for adaptation and mitigation of climate change in specific sectors Raising awareness among the general public on climate change and potential for adaptation and mitigation. Educational activities for various target groups. Implementation of the first pilot projects on adaptation and mitigation of climate change effects in the Arctic regions Assessment of opportunities for more diverse funding of priority climate projects and initiatives, development of new financial instruments Federal executive authorities Low Costs Activities Executing agency Mid-term objectives (from 2013 to 2020) Implementation of comprehensive climate strategies for Russian Arctic regions Development and implementation of a portfolio of climate projects in Arctic regions Regional authorities, business, donors Federal executive authorities, regional authorities, donors High Costs

Regional and municipal authorities

Low

High

Regional authorities, donors with participation of academia, nongovernmental organisations Regional authorities, donors Federal executive authorities, regional authorities Federal executive authorities Regional authorities with participation of academia Regional authorities with participation of academia Regional and municipal authorities Federal executive authorities, regional and municipal authorities, business, nongovernmental organizations Regional authorities, business, and donors

Low

Improvement of regional climate forecasts, hydrometeorology monitoring, and data reliability Development of risk insurance system against negative effects of climate change in priority sectors Development of an insurance system for climate risks in relation to () property; (b) investments; (c) consequences of natural disasters Development of innovative schemes to finance adaptation to climate change (for instance, commissions on carbon market deals); Implementation of large-scale regional programmes for improvement of energy efficiency Implementation of projects for installation of renewable energy sources Assessment of perspectives for carbon capture and storage (CCS) technologies at oil & gas fields on the Russian Arctic Sea shelf and implementation of pilot projects

Federal executive authorities, regional authorities Public-private partnership with insurance companies Public-private partnership with insurance companies

Medium / High

Medium

Medium

Medium High Medium

Medium

Federal executive authorities; business

Low

Medium

Regional authorities, business, donors Federal executive authorities, regional authorities, business, donors Federal executive authorities, business, with involvement of academia

High High

Low Low - medium Low

High

Long-term objectives (from 2020 to 2050) Medium Establishment of a developed climate risk insurance system Creation of additional funding sources for financing of climate change adaptation and mitigation through introduction of adaptation and carbon taxes, charges, and fees Implementation of a large-scale regional programme for adaptation to climate change Creation of a zero carbon area (with zero increase in emissions) in the Russian Arctic Considerable increase of renewables in the regional energy balance Introduction of a regional trading scheme for GHG emissions on a quota basis Introduction of carbon capture and storage (CCS) as part of energy production technology Public-private partnership with insurance companies Public-private partnership with insurance companies Federal executive authorities, business, with involvement of academia Regional authorities, business, donors Federal executive authorities, regional authorities, business, donors Regional authorities, donors, business Federal executive authorities, regional authorities, business, donors Medium

Regional and municipal authorities, nongovernmental organisations and donors Donors with possible contribution from regional budgets Federal executive authorities, regional and municipal authorities, business, donors

Low

Low

Medium

High High High Low Very high

Low

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8. Uncertainties and Knowledge Gaps

Findings of this study point to knowledge gaps. Such gaps can be filled by further research, which should also help to formulate integrated strategies for mitigation of climate change and adaptation to its impacts. Some of the conclusions provided below are in line with main findings of the Fourth Assessment Report of the IPCC. 1. Indeterminacies in climate change estimates. This problem needs to be addressed by: Development of monitoring systems, increase in the number of monitoring stations and construction of a multi-year data base for climate change assessments and future projections. Establishment of a unified on-line open data base of climate change parameters based on hydrometeorological observations. Promotion of regional climate modelling (elaboration of regional climate models for the Kola Peninsula). Detailed assessment of climate change effects will be impossible without better understanding of the probability of climate change events on a regional scale. 2. Shortage of economic assessments of climate change, costs and benefits of adaptation measures and of climate change mitigation measures. This should be overcome by: Inventorization of greenhouse gas emissions in the region to obtain more detailed information on GHG emissions from various sources and GHG absorption by sinks, as well as more accurate assessment of potential and implementation costs of various measures to reduce anthropogenic climate load. Economic studies for better understanding of climate change effects, cost of adaptation measures and their economic benefits (cost-and-benefit analysis), and limitations on adaptation. According to the World Bank study (2005), return on investments in environmental monitoring is estimated at 1:10 in Russia. It is anticipated that return on the World Bank's investments of $133 million to finance the Roshydromet Modernization Project should be 400-800% during the project implementation period, and economic losses due to extreme weather events will drop by 8.5%. [98] Assessment of co-benefits from implementation of climate change mitigation and adaptation measures in different economic sectors, i.e. instances where measures are economically justified and help to avoid overlapping and inefficient use of funding. 3. Attention to the climate factor in regional and sectoral development programmes is fragmentary. Current practice in Russia, at both federal and regional levels, takes no account of mitigation of or adaptation to climate change and the concept of low-carbon territories in regional plans and socio-economic development programmes. This should be remedied by: Raising awareness among decision-makers of potential benefits of adaptation and mitigation measures (through economic assessment of their efficiency). Carrying out research on climate dependence of all major economic sectors in the region, which can be further used for design of mid-term and long-term sectoral economic development plans. Such packages of adaptation measures for each economic sector can be quickly integrated into development programmes for the relevant sectors. Taking account of business needs and requirements of specific economic sectors when developing adaptation and climate change mitigation strategies, in order to draw their attention to the planning process. Assessing interrelation between adaptation to and mitigation of climate change effects (co-benefits from implementation of various activities) in order to maximize the efficiency of measures, which are implemented. 4. Insufficient co-ordination between academia, business and authorities. This problem needs to be tackled by: Improving interaction between research institutions that are based in the region and work on climate change issues. Specifically, this requires reciprocal information provision by the institutions on main lines of research and the findings obtained. Such provision could be via various forums, publications, and internet news-portals. Establishing regular information channels between academia and decision-makers for information exchange about research needs and research findings. It is important that research is of practical value. Initiating a permanent expert body in the region to develop strategies for adaptation to and mitigation of climate change effects, with involvement by representatives of expert organizations, decisionmakers, business and the general public. 5. Absence of programmes for adaptation and mitigation of climate change in the region is evidence of inadequate awareness among the general public concerning climate change: Many public awareness activities could be implemented by educational institutions and nongovernmental organizations in the form of educational programmes and information delivered through the mass media. Research, information exchange, and preparatory activities in domains that are still affected by a substantial knowledge gap will reduce levels of uncertainty and expand the knowledge base.

Main Conclusions
Climate changes that have been observed during recent decades in Arctic regions of Russia, including Murmansk oblast, will continue until the middle of the 21st century. The changes includes increase of average annual air temperature, shortening of the period of uninterrupted snow cover, increased precipitation (particularly in the winter), increased run-off, ice melting, degradation of permafrost, rising sea levels, etc. The observed and forecasted effects will have both positive and negative impacts on the environment, population and economy of the Arctic zone. The Russian Arctic stands out compared with Arctic zones of other countries by its denser population and intensive natural resource development. The Russian government is paying much attention to future socioeconomic development of the Arctic. Development of natural resources (primarily bioresources and minerals) and realization of the transport and transit potential of the region are among priority objectives. Growing interest in the Arctic region and its resource potential from the international community will enhance the role and importance of Murmansk oblast, since the region may transform into a major centre for extraction, processing and transportation of fuel and energy resources to Asia, Europe and the USA, as well as developing into a research, innovation and tourist centre. Sustainable development of these and other economic sectors depends on taking account of mid- and longterm regional climate change and timely adoption of adaptation measures to obtain maximum benefits from the forecasted changes and minimize negative effects. The biggest potential is from assessment of climate risks and design of adequate adaptation measures in the mining sector, transportation (particularly shipping), energy, infrastructure, fishery, agriculture, forestry, and tourism, since these sectors play a key role in future development of Murmansk Oblast and are dependent on climate and climate change. Particular attention should be paid to adaptation of coastal areas and of the most vulnerable social groups. This study considers possible climate change adaptation measures for the population and key economic sectors in Murmansk oblast. Suggested activities are applicable to other regions of Russia, including Arctic regions, with certain adjustments. Competent and timely implementation of these measures could reduce damage and risk of negative effects, and even bring some economic benefits from the positive impacts of climate change. Development of oil & gas fields on the shelf of the Barents Sea and forecasted economic growth in Murmansk oblast will lead to increase of GHG emissions in the region. So further socio-economic development needs to be based on adoption of modern low-carbon and climatefriendly approaches and technologies. Murmansk oblast has much potential for climate change mitigation, particularly from improvement of energy efficiency and energy saving. Implementation of energy-saving measures has the largest potential for GHG emission reduction and occupies a key role for overall development of the regional economy, as severe climate makes Murmansk oblast critically reliant on adequate and timely supply of energy resources. The region also has huge potential for development of renewable energy sources (wind and tide energy, biofuel etc.). Mid-term and long-term climate change forecasts show that comprehensive and dynamic planning will be needed in order to secure further sustainable development of Russian Arctic regions and their economy. It will be extremely important in the future to take account of the climate factor when planning development of Arctic territories, and to elaborate integrated regional climate strategies. Such strategies should include activities for mitigation of climate change effects, adaptation, and development of research and technology, as well as design of financial and institutional mechanisms to ensure implementation. Integrated climate strategies need to become an essential element of regional socio-economic development planning in the future. Their elaboration and timely adoption is an important precondition for sustainable development of Arctic regions in the context of climate change. In addition to minimizing the negative impact of observed climate changes, these strategies can bring additional benefits for economic development, employment and health, as well as facilitating faster adoption of more sustainable, energy-efficient and lowcarbon technologies and practices in the Arctic economy, strengthening infrastructure and reducing prices for electricity. There is much scope for integrated projects, whose implementation would both reduce GHG emissions and help to lower climate risks. Greatest synergy potential is from projects that aim to increase use of biomass, create ecovillages in districts inhabited with small indigenous groups, and that are focused on energy consumption in construction and forestry. All such projects are promising for Arctic territories and for Murmansk oblast, in particular. The key role in design of integrated climate strategies should belong to regional and local authorities and to planners. But efficient outcomes also require co-ordination between decision-makers, business representatives, academia, civil society and the general public at various administrative levels: local, regional and federal. Current practice in Russia does not does not take account of climate change mitigation, let alone adaptation to climate change, in drafting of plans and socio-economic

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development programmes, either at the federal or the regional level. This is a major obstacle to practical application of climate policy and low-carbon approaches for specific territories. Scepticism about climate issues and doubts about reality of the climate change threat are not uncommon among Russian decision-makers. This is related to inadequate information on the climate change issue and lack of a top-down signal from federal government to regions and municipalities. A common misunderstanding of many political decision-makers is that climate aspects are only an environmental issue, unconnected with practical economic priorities and actions. In the minds of many, it is not yet recognized that tackling of the climate change issue is a win-win strategy: mitigation and adaptation measures concurrently promote improvement of energy efficiency, development of renewable energy and other valuable activities. This may change in view of national objectives, underwritten by the Russian President, to reduce GHG emissions by 10-15% before 2020 compared with 1990, to improve energy-efficiency of the Russian economy by 40% before 2020 compared with 2007, and also due to adoption of the Climate Doctrine of the Russian Federation. The world financial crisis that began in mid-2008 will lead to amendment of some plans, but the Russian governments Antic-risis Programme in 2009 makes improvement of energy- and resource-efficiency a key aspect of modernization policy in the immediate future, since new climate-friendly technologies can help the economy to meet global energy and climate challenges. Measures announced by the Russian Government to date are mainly declaratory, and Russia has not yet has not tested the flexible mechanisms of the Kyoto Protocol in practice. These mechanisms are of limited importance for development of the low-carbon economy, but may help to attract investments for energy-efficiency improvements and energy saving. Adoption of a National Strategy/Programme/Action Plan on climate change, as a follow-up to the Russian Climate Doctrine, would be a significant step for promotion of climate change activities. The document would identify territories, economic sectors and population groups that are particularly vulnerable to climate change and suggest immediate response activities. It could also serve as a model for other regions and deliver the necessary political message on importance of the climate change factor for administrative and economic decisions. As mentioned above, issues of GHG emission reduction or restriction and adaptation to climate change are unfortunately not reflected in socio-economic development programmes at federal or regional level at present. This study presents recommendations for further climate policy actions in Russian Arctic regions, divided into immediate (with implementation in 2009-2012), mid-term (2013-2020), and long-term (until 2050). Most of the proposed short-term (immediate) measures

do not require large investments, are realistic and can be incorporated into the existing or draft regional socio-economic development strategies without major extra cost. Larger financial investments and broader involvement of stakeholders at federal, regional and local level will be required for further actions. However, advances in science and technology should reduce costs and shorten their implementation periods. Climate change effects are not limited by administrative borders, and it is important that work on climate strategies should give consideration to intersectoral and interdisciplinary links, as well as cooperation and integration between regions, nations, and sectors at all levels. By working together stakeholders can achieve positive long-term effects instead of being restricted to decisions that focus solely on short-term benefits. Cooperation and dialogue become the key concepts in study of climate change and climate risk management. Many approaches to climate change mitigation and adaptation have already been successfully tested in other countries. Experience from Finland, Canada, and Denmark is of practical interest for Murmansk oblast. The choice and implementation of adaptation measures in Finland is particularly relevant due to similar natural and climate conditions and similarities of economic structure in Finland and the Kola Peninsula. The experience and potential of such international organizations as UNDP, UNEP, OECD, and the World Bank will also be valuable. In view of all that has been said, it is extremely important to press ahead with pilot infrastructure and social projects in Murmansk oblast for design of sectoral climate strategies with involvement of private businesses and regional authorities. Design of integrated climate programmes is particularly promising for development of maritime transport, the housing and utilities sector (introduction of new, sustainable, energy efficient technologies and renewable energy sources, review of energy consumption norms to reflect higher temperatures), agriculture and forestry (projects that focus on use of agricultural and forestry waste to generate heat and energy in rural districts), and also for addressing social tasks, including those related to climate impacts on public health and indigenous peoples. The outcome of such pilot projects could further be disseminated to other Arctic territories of the Russian Federation.

Bibliography and Sources

Publications:
1. Anisimov O.A., Reneva S.A., Permafrost and Changing Climate: The Russian Perspective. Ambio. Vol.35, 4, June 2006, 169-175. The Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences, 2006. 2. Anisimov .. Consequences of climate change for Arctic regions (presentation at the workshop Climate change and mitigation of its impacts from the example of Arctic regions , Moscow, 6 June 2009). 3. Babitch N. Influence of ice condition on shipping in the Arctic (presentation for the International Conference Adaptation to climate change and its role in securing regional sustainable development, Murmansk, 13 May 2008). 4. Burton I., Diringer E., Smith J. Adaptation to Climate Change: International Policy Options. Pew Centre On Global Climate Change, 2006. 5. Carter, T.R., M.L. Parry, H. Harasawa, and S. Nishioka. 1994. IPCC Technical Guidelines for Assessing Climate Change Impacts and Adaptations. London: Department of Geography, University College London. 6. Climate change, 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II (WGII) to the Fourth Assessment Report (AR4). IPCC, Geneva, Switzerland, 2007. 7. Climate change, 2007: Mitigation of Climate Change. Contribution of Working Group III (WGIII) to the Fourth Assessment Report (AR4). IPCC, Geneva, Switzerland, 2007. 8. Climate Change, 2007: the Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I (WGI) to the Fourth Assessment Report (AR4). IPCC, Geneva, Switzerland, 2007. 9. Climate Doctrine of the Russian Federation (Draft). Roshydromet, Ministry of Natural Resources, 2009 (available to the public on the web-page of the Russian Ministry of Natural Resources: http://www.mnr.gov.ru/ files/part). 10. Climate Solutions. The WWFs Vision for 2050. WWF Intl., 2007. (the report is available at: http://www.wwf.ru/ resources/publ/book/220/). 11. Compendium of methods and tools to evaluate impacts of, and vulnerability and adaptation to, climate change. UNFCCC, 2008 (available at the UN FCCC web-page www.unfccc.int). 12. Dmitriev G.S., Minin V.A., Hoistad D.A., Large-Scale Integration of Wind Energy to the Power Grid - A Possibility of Alternative Way. (the paper in English is available at the following web-page: http://www.greenworld.org.ru/eng/ gwnews/brgw/num7/bulln73.htm).

13. Dobrolyuubova Yu.S., Zhukov B.B. Top 10 misunderstandings about global warming and the Kyoto Protocol. Moscow, RREC, 2008. 14. Draft concept of sustainable development of the Arctic zone of the Russian Federation. Moscow. Ministry for Regional Development, 2005. 15. Economic and social indicators of regions inhabited by small indigenous northern peoples. Moscow, Rosstat, 2008. 16. Economic and social indicators of regions of the Extreme North and equivalent territories in 1998-2007. Moscow, Rosstat, 2008. 17. Economic Development Strategy for Murmansk oblast in the period until 2015. Approved by resolution of the Murmansk Government on 20.12.2001. Murmansk, 2001 (the document is available at the following web-page: http://mineconomy.gov-murman.ru). 18. Evaluation report on climate changes and their consequences on the territory of Russian Federation (in two volumes). Moscow. Roshydromet. 2008 (the report is available at the following web-page: http://www. climate2008.igce.ru). 19. Feasibility study for investments in construction of the first phase of the Shtokman gas field with production and sea transportation of liquefied gas. Saint-Petersburg. Giprospetsgaz, 2005. 20. Feenstra, J. F., I. Burton, J. B. Smith, and R.S.J. Tol, eds. Handbook on Methods for Climate Change Impact Assessment and Adaptation Strategies. Version 2.0. UNEP, 1998. 21. Foruth National Communications of Sweden, Norway, Finland, and Canada. 2006. (available on the web-page of the UN FCCC www.unfccc.int). 22. Fourth National Communication of the Russian Federation on the UN FCCC and Kyoto Protocol. Moscow, Roshydromet, 2006. 23. Geography of the world ocean: Arctic and Southern oceans. Leningrad, 1985. 24. Gerd Rosenkranz, Deutsche Umwelthilfe, 2006. 25. Global and regional changes of climate and their natural and socio-economic consequences (general editor: Kotlyakov V..). Moscow, GEOS, 2000. 26. Global Wind Energy Report 2005 - GWEC (Global Wind Energy Council), 2006. 27. Green Paper on Adapting to climate change in Europe options for EU action. The European Commission. Brussels, 2007 (the paper is available at the web-page of the European Commission: http://ec.europa.eu/environment/ climat/adaptation/index_en.htm).

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28. Greenpeace Russia Energy Revolution. Moscow, Greenpeace Russia 2007 (the report is available at the following web-page: http://www.greenpeace.org/russia/ru/ press/reports/1309441). 29. Handbook on Methods for Climate Change Impact Assessment and Adaptation Strategies. UNEP, 1998. 30. Hasol S.J. Impacts of warming in the Arctic (in Russian). Cambridge University Press, 2004. 31. Human Development Report 2007/2008. Fighting climate change: human solidarity in a divided world. Moscow, UNDP, 2007. 32. Impact of climate change on the Russian Arctic: analysis and paths for solution of the problem. WWF Russia. Moscow, 2008. 33. Impacts of a Warming Arctic: Arctic Climate Impact Assessment (ACIA). ACIA, 2004 (report is available at the following web-page: http://amap.no/acia/). 34. Influence of climate changes on public health in the Russian Arctic (edited by Revitch B..). Moscow. UN Russia, 2008. 35. Integrated management of the coastal zone of Murmansk oblast. (Report of research results). .:GNVU Council for production forces studies , 2005. 36. International Energy Agency. Energy Technology Perspectives IEA, 2006. 37. International Energy Agency. World Energy Outlook 2006. International Energy Agency, 2007. 38. IPCC Special Report on carbon dioxide capture and storage. Cambridge University Press, 2005. 39. Issues of northern shipping routes / Council for production force studies, Russian Academy of Sciences; Central Naval Scientific Research and Design Institute (CNIIMF) / edited by Granberg .G. and Peresypkin V.I.; Moscow, Nauka, 2006. 40. Kharitonova G.N. Climate instability and adaptation of environmental protection efforts in Murmansk oblast. Louzin Institute of Economic Problems at the Kola Scientific Centre of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Murmansk, 2008. 41. Klokov .B., Krasovskaya .., Yamskov .N. Challenges of transition towards sustainable development in regions settled by indigenous peoples of the Russian Arctic. Moscow. Institute of Ethnology and Anthropology. RAS, 2001. 42. Konischev V.N. Reaction of permafrost to climate warming (manuscript). Moscow, 2008. 43. Lim B., Spanger-Siegfried E. Adaptation Policy Frameworks for Climate Change: Developing Strategies, Policies and Measures. UNDP, Cambridge University Press, 2004. 44. Masloboev V.. Analysis and comprehensive assessment of major exogenous and endogenous factors, influencing socioeconomic development of Murmansk oblast. Apatity, 2008. 45. Nelson F.E., Anisimov O.A., Shiklomanov N.I. Climate Change and Hazard Zonation in the Circum-Arctic Permafrost Regions Natural Hazards 26: 203-25.

46. On the fundamentals of state policy of the Russian Federation for northern regions (paper dated 28.04.2004), available at: http://www.kremlin.ru/text/appears2/2004/04/28/97302. shtml; 47. Pavlov .V. Permafrost climate monitoring in Russia: methodology, observation results, forecast. Earth Cryosphere Journal, 1, 1996. 48. Randers J., Alfsen K.H. How can Norway become a climate-friendly society. World Economics, vol. 8, No 1, Jan.-March 2007. pp. 75-106 49. Report on climate characteristics on the territory of the Russian Federation for 2007. Moscow Roshydromet, 2008 (available at the web-page of Roshydromet: http:// meteorf.ru). 50. Report on climate characteristics on the territory of the Russian Federation for 2008. Moscow Roshydromet, 2009 (available at the web-page of Roshydromet: http:// meteorf.ru). 51. Report on environmental protection and rational use of natural resources in Murmansk oblast in 2006. (Official publication by the Committee for natural resources and environmental protection of Murmansk oblast). Murmansk, 2007. 52. Report on the visible progress of the Russian Federation in fulfilling commitments under the Kyoto Protocol. Moscow, Roshydromet, 2006. 53. Revitch B.. Climate change in the Russian Arctic: the risk to public health (paper for the International Conference Adaptation to climate change and its role in securing regional sustainable development, Murmansk, 13 May 2008). 54. Russia and neighbouring countries: environmental, economic and social consequences of climate change. WWF Russia, Oxfam. Moscow, 2008. 55. Semenov A.V. Instrumental climate observation in the Kola Peninsula and special requirements of regional consumers of climate data (paper for the International Conference Adaptation to climate change and its role in securing regional sustainable development, Murmansk, 13 May 2008). 56. Stern N. The Economics of Climate Change. Cambridge University Press, 2006. 57. Strategic forecast of climate changes in the Russian Federation for the period until 2010-2015 and their influence on Russian economic sectors. Moscow. Roshydromet, 2005 (the document is available at the Roshydromet web-site http://meteorf.ru). 58. Summary of the Stern Review The Economics of Climate Change. 2nd edition, amended and revised. Kokorin . ., Kouraev S. N., Youlkin . . WWF, Strategic Programme Fund (SPF). Moscow. WWF Russia, 2009. 59. The Arctic at the threshold of the third millennium: resource potential and ecological problems (edited by Gramberg I.S. and Laverov N.P.). Saint-Petersburg, Nauka. 2000.

60. The Climate of Russia (edited by Kobysheva N.V.). SaintPetersburg. Gidrometeoizdat, 2001. 61. The fundamentals of state policy of the Russian Federation in Arctic region up to 2020 and thereafter. (Decree No. 1969, approved by the President of the Russian Federation, Medvedev D.A., on 18.09.2008). 62. The melting beauty. Climate change and its consequences (edited by Dobrolyubova Yu.S.). Moscow. RREC, Heinrich Bll Foundation, 2009. 63. Tikounov V.S., Krasovskaya .., Sataev R.R. Assessment of recreational potential of the Russian North. Moscow. Moscow State University, 2007. 64. Touinova S. Climate change and renewable energy policy in Murmansk oblast (executive summary of the paper and presentation at the International Conference Adaptation to climate change and its role in securing regional sustainable development, Murmansk, 13 May 2008). 65. Touinova S. Energy saving and waste management in northern municipalities. (article in the compendium The North and the Market: establishing economic order. 2007. 1. Pages 105-111). 66. Toushinskaya G.S., Dobrolyubova Yu.S. Manual for implementation of business projects in the energyefficiency field in Russia using Kyoto Protocol mechanisms. Moscow, RREC, REEEP, 2008. 67. White Paper Adapting to climate change: Towards a European framework for action. Brussels, European Commission, 2009 68. Yulkin M.. Mitigation of climate change: existing opportunities. Role and activity of Russia (presentation at the workshop Climate change and mitigation of its consequences by the examples of Arctic regions, Moscow, 6 June 2009).

Web-sites:
69. amap.no/acia Programme of the Arctic Council Arctic Climate Impact Assessment (ACIA). 70. gov.murman.ru Government of Murmansk oblast. 71. mineconomy.gov-murman.ru Ministry for Economic Development of Murmansk oblast. 72. unfcc.int Secretariat of the UN FCCC and Kyoto Protocol. 73. www.aari.nw.ru Scientific Research Institute for Arctic and Antarctic, Roshydromet (AANII). 74. www.climatechange.ru Russian information and news web-site devoted to climate change. 75. www.economy.gov.ru Ministry for Economic Development of the Russian Federation. 76. www.gazprom.ru Gazprom company. 77. www.geogr.msu.ru Department of Geography, Lomonosov Moscow State University. 78. www.hydrology.ru State Hydrological Institute of Roshydromet (GGI)

79. www.icold-cigb.net International Committee on Large Dams. 80. www.iea.org International Energy Agency. 81. www.igce.ru Global Climate and Ecology Institute of Roshydromet (IGCE). 82. www.ipcc.ch Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). 83. www.kolgimet.ru State Institution Murmansk Department for Hydrometeorology and Environmental Monitoring. 84. www.mchs.gov.ru Ministry of the Russian Federation for Civil Defence, Emergencies and Elimination of Consequences of Natural Disasters (MChS). 85. www.meteo.ru - All-Russia Scientific Research Institute of Hydrometeorological Information World Data Centre (VNIIGMI-WDC). 86. www.meteorf.ru Federal Service for Hydrometeorology and Environmental Monitoring (Roshydromet). 87. www.mgo.rssi.ru Central Geophysical Observatory of the Russian Federal Service for Hydrometeorology and Environmental Monitoring (Roshydromet GGO) 88. www.minregion.ru Ministry for Regional Development of the Russian Federation. 89. www.mnr.gov.ru Ministry of Natural Resources and Ecology of the Russian Federation (Minpryrody). 90. www.morskayakollegiya.ru Maritime Panel under the President of the Russian Federation. 91. www.msco.ru Murmansk Shipping Company. 92. www.pointcarbon.com PointCarbon, analytical company. 93. www.rusrec.ru Russian Regional Environmental Centre 94. www.un.org/climatechange UN activities on climate change 95. www.undp.ru United Nations Development Programme, incl.: http://www.undp.org/climatechange/ http://www.undp.org/climatechange/adapt/index.html http://www.adaptationlearning.net/ 96. www.unep.org United Nations Environmental Programme (UNEP). 97. www.wmo.ch World Meteorological Organisation (WMO). 98. www.worldbank.org World Bank.

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