Ao Semestre

2008
I
2008
II
2008
III
2008
IV
2009
I
2009
II
2009
III
2009
IV
2010
I
2010
II
2010
III
2010
IV
2011
I
2011
II
2011
III
2011
IV
2012
I
2012
II
2012
III
2012
IV

Plastico Negro
Demanda [Kgrs]
2,250
1,737
2,412
7,269
3,514
2,143
3,459
7,056
4,120
2,766
2,556
8,253
5,491
4,382
4,315
12,035
5,648
3,696
4,843
13,097

Plastico Transparente
Demanda [Kgrs]
3,200
7,658
4,420
2,384
3,654
8,680
5,695
1,953
4,742
13,673
6,640
2,737
3,486
13,186
5,448
3,485
7,728
16,591
8,236
3,316

Caso: SPC
20000 10000

2012.5

2012

2011.5

2011

2010.5

2010

2009.5

2009

2008.5

2008

2007.5

Plastico Transparente
Plastico Negro

2012.5

2012

Ao

Semestre

PERIODO

2008
2008
2009
2009
2010
2010
2011
2011
2012
2012
2013
2013
2014
2014

I
II
I
II
I
II
I
II
I
II
I
II
I
II

1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14

Plastico Transparente
Demanda [Kgrs]
10858
6804
12334
7648
18415
9377
16672
8933
24319
11552

Resumen
Estadsticas de la regresin
Coeficiente de correlacin
0.9967597404
mltiple
Coeficiente de determinacin
0.9935299801
R^2
R^2 ajustado
0.9919124752
Error tpico
153.39075505
Observaciones
6
ANLISIS DE VARIANZA
Grados de libertad Suma de cuadrados
Regresin
1
14452192.0321429
Residuos
4
94114.8949404758
Total
5
14546306.9270833

Intercepcin
Variable X 1

Coeficientes
6899.1202381
908.75714286

Error tpico
246.4275056582
36.6674037689

Demanda sin
estacionalidad

10356
11622
12486
13189
14087
15097

Estimacion de la
demanda no
estacionalizada

Factor Temporal

7808
8717
9625
10534
11443
12352
13260
14169
15078
15987
16895
17804
18713
19622

Factor
estacional

1.39
0.78
1.28
0.73
1.61
0.76
1.26
0.63
1.61
0.72

FORCAST

1.43
0.72

11168
6309
13767
7624
16367
8940
18966
10255
21566
11571
24166
12886
26765
14201 MODELO
FORECAS

EST

40000
20000
0

Estadstico t
Probabilidad
Inferior 95%
Superior 95%Inferior 95,0%
27.996551033 9.683853969E-006 6214.9277962244 7583.31268 6214.9278
24.7837874911 1.573191301E-005
806.9521091427 1010.562177 806.952109

10

Column E

Column D

Promedio de los cuadrados

F
Valor crtico de F
14452192.03214 614.2361224027 1.573191301E-005
23528.72373512

Colu

ERROR

ORECAS

14

Superior 95,0%
7583.31268
1010.56218

13

Column J

(CLAROS)

12

11

10

Column E

nD

-310
495
-1,433
24
2,048
437
-2,294
-1,322
2,753
-19
-24,166
-12,886
-26,765
-14,201
MODELO
ESTATICO

Ao

Semestre

PERIODO
t

Demanda [Kgrs]
Dt

FORECAST NIVEL
Ft
Lt

0
I
II
I
II
I
II
I
II
I
II
I
II
I
II

1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14

10858
6804
12334
7648
18415
9377
16672
8933
24319
11552

Axis Title

2008
2008
2009
2009
2010
2010
2011
2011
2012
2012
2013
2013
2014
2014

11087.19
6269.04
13699.46
7603.30
16140.58
8977.91
19038.47
10321.45
21278.72
11552.00
24125.22
12660.41
25388.46
12660.41

6899.1202
7802.41
8732.15
9623.37
10524.37
11479.38
12440.22
13340.28
14188.73
15125.30
16044.69
16664.79
16932.96
16664.79
16932.96

FORECA

TENDENCIA ESTACIONALIDAD ERROR

Tt
St
Et

908.75714
904.58
923.80
898.91
900.51
942.15
956.43
913.36
863.76
919.39
919.39
919.39
919.39
919.39
919.39

1.42
0.72
1.42
0.72
1.41
0.72
1.42
0.72
1.41
0.72
1.42
0.72
1.42
0.72

ERROR
ABSOLUTO Et

229.19
-534.96
1365.46
-44.70
-2274.42
-399.09
2366.47
1388.45
-3040.28
0.00

ERROR AL
CUADRADO
MSEt

229
535
1,365
45
2,274
399
2,366
1,388
3,040
0

52,526
169,356
734,394
551,295
1,475,636
1,256,242
1,876,807
1,883,180
2,700,972
2,430,875

0.033853328
0.7641212849
0.0437719068

FORECAST METODO WINTERS (CLAROS)

Axis Title

MAD

229
382
710
544
890
808
1,031
1,075
1,294
1,164

Juan Pablo:
%Desviacin
ERROR media
MAPEt
absoluta

2
8
11
1
12
4
14
16
13
0

Error del Forecast:

MAD:
MAPE (%):
1,164

8.05

Juan Pablo:
Juan Pablo:
Porcentaje
de
la
Tracking signal
TSt
desviacin media
absoluta

2.11
4.99
7.01
5.41
6.80
6.37
7.49
8.50
8.94
8.05

1.00
-0.80
1.49
1.87
-1.42
-2.05
0.69
1.95
-0.73
-0.81

Rango Ts
min
-2.05

max
1.95

PERIODO
t

Demanda
FORECAST ERROR
[Kgrs]
Ft
Et
Dt

ERROR
ABSOLUTO
Et

ERROR AL
CUADRADO
MSEt

MAD

0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28

3,200
7,658
4,420
2,384
3,654
8,680
5,695
1,953
4,742
13,673
6,640
2,737
3,486
13,186
5,448
3,485
7,728
16,591
8,236
3,316

275.20
1077.19
-205.12
-511.26
81.98
770.52
-196.96
951.63
-1039.59
-4414.61
632.71
32.28
3578.54
1633.34
375.79
-1551.37
-4452.00
6369.39
3230.44
3639.02

275
1,077
205
511
82
771
197
952
1,040
4,415
633
32
3,579
1,633
376
1,551
4,452
6,369
3,230
3,639

75,735
618,033
426,047
384,882
309,250
356,660
311,250
385,543
462,788
2,365,391
2,186,748
2,004,606
2,835,478
2,823,501
2,644,682
2,629,811
3,641,015
5,692,576
5,942,218
6,307,230

275
676
519
517
430
487
445
509
568
952
923
849
1,059
1,100
1,052
1,083
1,281
1,564
1,652
1,751

Error del Forecast:

0.240 MAD:
1
1 1,751

FORECAST METODO
30000 20000 10000
0

Estadsticas de la regresin
0.30540407
0.09327165
0.04289785
3992.2206
20

3475.20
8735.19
4214.88
1872.74
3735.98
9450.52
5498.04
2904.63
3702.41
9258.39
7272.71
2769.28
7064.54
14819.34
5823.79
1933.63
3276.00
22960.39
11466.44
6955.02
9038.07
16127.98
7347.65
3126.97
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!

13

12

11

10

0
0
13

12

11

10

Coeficientes Error tpico Estadstico t Inferior 95,0%

Superior 95,0%
4133.7 1854.51205 2.22899603 237.5148 8029.885235
210.657143 154.811675 1.36073163 -114.59 535.9044022

Grados de libertad
Suma de cuadrados
Promedio de los cuadrados
1 29510327 29510327.2
18 286880856 15937825.3
19 316391183

Jua
De

%
MAPEt TSt
ERROR

9
14
5
21
2
9
3
49
22
32
10
1
103
12
7
45
58
38
39
110
Error del Forecast:
MAPE
29.42

8.60
11.33
9.10
12.19
10.20
9.98
9.05
14.01
14.89
16.63
15.98
14.75
21.51
20.86
19.93
21.46
23.59
24.41
25.19
29.42

1.00
2.00
2.21
1.23
1.67
3.06
2.90
4.41
2.12
-3.37
-2.79
-3.00
0.97
2.42
2.89
1.38
-2.31
2.18
4.02
5.87

Rango Ts
min
max
-3.37 5.87

AST METODO WINTERS (CLAROS)

28

27

26

25

24

23

22

21

20

19

18

17

16

15

14

13

12

11

10

28
27
26
25
24
23
22
21
20
19
18
17
16
15
14
13
12
11
10
9
8

Juan Pablo:
Desviacin media absoluta

Juan Pablo:
Juan Pablo:
Porcentaje de la Tracking
desviacin
signal
media absoluta