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Date of Submission Marks Awarded : MAITHIN GHOSH : 521111034 : SMIT : 00696 : MBA : TECHNOLOGY MANAGEMENT : IV Semester : B1326 : 14th May 2013 :

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Directorate of Distance Education Sikkim Manipal University II Floor, Syndicate House Manipal-576104

Q1. Explain the different Technology Forecasting Methods. Explain briefly about Technology.

Managing

Two technology forecasting methods are exploratory forecasting and normative forecasting methods. Exploratory Methods: For analysis of historical data. Attributes are functional performance, technical parameters, economic performance. It includes following methods: Intuitive forecasting: Mostly used method which assumes the experience and education of experts to forecast the vectors of expansion and evaluation in a specific field. The Delphi technique involves the comparisons of expert projections of future technical developments and helps in projecting the future technical and market developments. The opinion poll technique involves the opinion of different experts and involves the joint assessment of different ideas. Extrapolation technique: Extrapolation is the most usual method and involves the extension of the present methods for the future. Linear extrapolation gives good results. Exponential extrapolation is the non-linear and includes historical trends of a particular period of time and these trends are extended in the future. Growth curves: It includes the numerous time series of growth behaviour which are collected and categorised according to data characteristics. Pearl curve is an inhibitive model of technology growth and produced when there is some competitive situation between the two technologies with same growth rates. Gompertz curve uses the pearl curve to show the pattern in which the maturing technologies approach the development limits. Technology monitoring: Exploratory method which looks after the monitoring of the technologies. Normative Methods: It provides the budgetary decision in the technological area and includes the well organised attempts to allocate the money, manpower and the other resources on a rational basis. Managing technology includes new ventures, innovation, research and research infrastructure. The new hi-tech ventures include development of the new products and creation of the new markets for the growth of organisation and business plan for the new project. The ideas of new ventures are concerned with innovation which includes activities (from creating the technical knowledge) implementing in new business. Managing of research includes the organisation of research, research personnel and the organisation research strategy. The research and development infrastructure has a greater impact on the competitive environment of our country. Technological innovation is needed for competing in the market. Q2. Briefly explains diffusion and growth of technology. Technology Diffusion The process of adopting the new technology by the customers who came to know about the technology from other customers is called as the technology diffusion. Diffusion involves special types of communication methods/system to help diffuse changes in practice, as well as changes in knowledge or attitudes.

Technology diffusion is vital and its barriers help us to determine the magnitude of it. These barriers determine the volumes of diffusion. Diffusion enlarges the set of available technologies and increases the productivity of the country. In case of diffusion, productivity is determined by the domestic technology in the production country and the diffusion technology from other countries. A well-managed technology diffusion system enables an organisation to plan its technology development projects in a more meaningful manner as well as transfer the technologies more successfully. Such an approach results in better returns for the investments made in R&D and technology development systems. Perspectives of innovation diffusion process Traditional perspective: Technological innovation and diffusion are separate in traditional view. Adoption perspective: It focuses on how the various channels and modes of communication can be used to influence a diverse group of potential customers to adopt a technological innovation. Infrastructure perspective: It affects diffusion include transportation, terrain, weather, availability of energy, communication, etc. Diffusion will occur only if the necessary facilities exist. Regulatory /Societal perspective: It looks at the effects of government policies, regulatory requirements and bureaucratic processes and the development stage of the area in which the technology is to be used. Models perspective: It looks at the development of models that management can use to predict the behaviour of potential users of a technological innovation. Comprehensive perspective: Uses all the perspectives for developing a diffusion strategy.

Activities necessary for diffusion process Individual action: Activity is beginning step where inventor proceeds through series of steps. Creation of favourable conditions: The leadership must establish the expectation that everyone will take some responsibility for generating innovations and some contribution. Applying basic research: Diffusion involves linking of basic research to application. Industrialization: It focuses on developing a practical and profitable application of the technology. Commercialization Communication Full Scale Diffusion: It includes a search for a wider range of potential markets, new industries, new geographic regions, and new market segments.

Q3. Explain the eight phases of the process of technological innovation Technological innovation is a complicated set of tasks that converts the concepts and scientific knowledge into reality and the real-world applications, i.e. useful products and services. It requires the

unification of inventions and the technologies which already exist for bringing innovations to the world market. Different phases of technological innovation are Basic research: 1st phase where basic research is done for increasing our understanding of the nature laws i.e. for knowledge generation over long time duration. Applied research: 2nd phase where research is done for dealing with one or more problems of the society and solving them. For example, conduction of research for the development of medicine for a particular known disease. If the applied research is successful, we can develop and implement technology comfortably. Development of technology: 3rd phase where we transform our knowledge and concepts into hardware, software, or services i.e. as a human activity. It include demonstration of practicability of a concept, verification of concepts of designs or creation and testing of a prototype. Implementation of technology: 4th phase where we implement the technology. For that, we perform a set of tasks related with the introduction of a product into the market. This phase includes the first functional use of a concept or a product by the society. It brings about the tasks which are related to assurance for the successful introduction of developed product or service (including cost, and considerations related to the environment). Production: In production phase, we perform a set of tasks (manufacturing, production control, logistics, and distribution) related to the broad transformation of the design concepts into products and services. Marketing: In this phase, we perform a set of activities for assuring that the consumers accept the technology. It includes the evaluation of the market, strategy for distribution, promotion of the product and services, and judging the behaviour of consumers. Expansion: 7th phase which includes the strategy and performance of tasks that assures the expansion of the technology in terms of its usage and supremacy of the technology in the market. Expansion is dependent on the methods of exercising the technology and on the system used for the technology marketing. Improvement and enhancement: Final phase which is related to improvement and enhancement of technology. It brings about improvisation of the technology, development of new applications of the technology, improvisation of quality of the technology, reduction of technology cost and meeting the customers needs.

Q4. Explain the suggested measures in Indian experience in the technology absorption efforts. Some measures are given for the Indian industries for improving the technology absorption. Indian industry has been expressing its views on various matters connected with absorption through press, seminars and representations to the Government from time to time. The units should have their own technology policy for its acquisition, absorption and adaptation on long-term as well as short-term basis.

 The travel grants and incentives need to be considered for participation in international seminars/ symposia as well as for training abroad to keep abreast with the latest development in their fields. The R&D personnel from in-house/national laboratories should be involved intimately in the transfer of technology from the conceptual stage itself. Incentives and support should be given for prototype development and testing facilities, pilot studies for adaptation, absorption and up-gradation of imported technologies. Also, support for using the services of experts/ consultants on short -term basis may be considered in specific cases. There needs to be a closer interaction amongst in-house R&D units, national R&D laboratories, academic institutions, design organisations and consulting firms. Also, international R&D collaborations can be encouraged. The particular Information about the acquisition of foreign technologies should be widely disseminated with a view of making R&D personnel aware of the needs of the industry. It enables them to formulate the programmes accordingly. The tax benefits and fiscal incentives may be considered for investments made in absorption and upgradation of processes/ products. In case of fast changing technologies foreign collaboration agreements should be of shorter durations. R&D expenditure should be generally 5 to 10% of the annual turnover of the company. An information base for modern available technologies on global basis should be set up. The development of new products is very expensive and time consuming. It is generally not economical for the industry because of the low volume of manufacturing and fragmentation of capacity. Small/ medium industries are not able to do any significant technology absorption exercises since most of them do not have their own R&D facilities in a meaningful way. Import of technology and know-how is limited to product design in most of the cases and manufacturing processes are directly related to the volumes of production abroad. They are uneconomic for the Indian firm and need to be scaled down to meet the local demands. Consequently, quality and finish may often suffer.

Q5. Discuss the different fields, where artificial intelligence techniques have been applied. Artificial intelligence is the creation and study of computer programs that perform intelligent functions. Artificial Intelligence happens to be the ultimate goal of computer programming. Currently, a lot of effort is going on, to make more intelligent computer programs that are easier to use, even at the cost of simplicity and efficiency. Different fields where artificial intelligence techniques have been applied are: Common Tasks: A lot of real world tasks are so casual and seem unchallenging which means they cannot attract much consideration by the manner they are carried out. It is hard to even notice small problems,

and draw systematic solutions. These so called simple problems are actually very complex and need a high amount of knowledge. Some common tasks are: Perception (vision and speech) Natural language understanding, generation, and translation Common sense reasoning Robot control Formal Tasks: It focuses on handling large and complex domain space for problem solving. Without Al involvement, it is difficult to solve such tasks. Finding a solution from a vast area of knowledge sources and proving theorems, are examples of such formal tasks. Games (chess, backgammon, checkers, and so on). Mathematics (geometry, logic, integral calculus, theorem proving). Several automatic theorem-proving software programs have been developed that have this ability to a limited extent. Many informal tasks like making an error diagnosis, can be expressed with theoremproving problems. Games can generate enormously large search spaces. These are huge and complex enough which necessitates robust techniques for determining what alternatives to look at in the problem space. These techniques are called heuristics and comprise a significant area of AI research. Expert Tasks: Expert tasks are the tasks that involve specialised knowledge to provide expert outcome in the specific area. The following applications fall under this category: Engineering (design, fault finding, manufacturing, planning, and so on). Scientific analysis. Medical diagnosis Financial analysis. Expert systems are automatic analysing systems and provide expert judgements about specialised areas. Expert systems can detect and correct faults in military systems, aircrafts and radars. They also scientifically classify members of a particular species, recommend on possible chemical structures, find natural resources and diagnose diseases. Two components in the design of expert system are expression of knowledge and utilising the knowledge to get conclusions. Expression of knowledge is complex because expert knowledge can be indefinite or uncertain. Q6. Explain the models of technology transfer and their uses. Traditional models Appropriability model: the process of transfer of technology takes place, when the users have been found by the technology or competitive market has discovered the technology. Dissemination model: an expert, who will transfer the technology, will transfer the knowledge only to the user, who is willing. it offers one-way communication only. Knowledge utilisation model: gives priority to the importance of communication between developers and users. It helps in reduction of the complexity in the process of technology transfer. Qualitative technology transfer models The Bar-Zakay model

4 stages in process of technology transfer are search, adapt, implement, maintain. The need of comprehensive examination of the technology transfer process from search to post-implementation stage. Adoption of a process approach to plan and implement the technology transfer projects. The need of objectives and decision points to strengthen the activities, to correct the mistakes or to terminate the projects. The Behrman and Wallender Model In this model, the transferee must involve in the process of technology transfer project from beginning. Initiation of production doesnt mean that a technology transfer project is completed and if the measures taken are not accurate to ensure adaptation, the technology transfer is said to be unsuccessful. The Dahlman and Westphal Model It emphasises the involvement of the transferee at all the stages during planning and implementing process of technology transfer project. So,it is an improved model over Behrman and Wallender model. It pays less attention for negotiation and post-implementation stages. In this model, a sequential process is required to study the technology transfer. A careful feasible study on the technology transfer projects has to be done before beginning the project. The transferee must be involved in the planning right from the beginning and transferees must develop necessary good engineering and project management skills. The Schlie, Radnor, and Wad Model: Schlie introduced a simple, universal model for technology transfer process. It describes seven elements which manipulate the planning, implementatio and ultimate success of any technology transfer project. In this model, when planning and implementing a technology transfer project, various changes that had taken place in the worldwide business environment is helpful for the managers of technology to develop good insights into the transferee, transferor, and larger environments. The technology transfer mechanism based on a sophisticated understanding. The Chantramonklasri Model: Improved form of Dahlman and Westphal Model which is valid only in technologically developed countries.