LP3018 Political Communication: Public Opinion

Note on the portfolios and presentations

Focus on your strategy, not the issue! You only have 15 minutes each after 15 your group will be cut off Presentation should either be an example from your campaign or set out your campaign Portfolio needs to reinforce your choices Show evidence of engaging with theoretical issues raised in seminars How has your strategy been devised? What conceptual frames have informed your decision-making? Branding / corporate identity for your campaign/group HAND IN THE PORTFOLIOS DURING CLASS week 9

Themes and Issues

Understanding what the term public opinion really means Understanding its place in democracy What is it used for? How public opinion is formulated Is it socially constructed? Is it constructed deliberatively? Problems in assessing and measuring public opinion Breaking it down: what are the main components of public opinion?

Understanding public opinion

How is public opinion different from private opinion?

QUES: Private opinion becomes public opinion A. when that opinion, regardless of its subject matter, is publicly expressed. B. when it concerns public issues and is publicly expressed. C. when an individual is polled by a major polling organization. D. when it is not divisive. Private opinion? Not a political concept? Not articulated in a public space Not part of the public sphere

The role of the mass media in shaping public opinion

The world we have to deal with politically is out of reach, out of sight, out of mind (Lippmann,1922) For nearly all of the concerns on the public agenda, citizens deal with a second-hand reality, a reality that is structured by journalists reports about these events and situations Media effects: Framing, priming, agenda setting, persuasion All about establishing issue salience amongst the public Placing an issue on the public agenda Making that issue the focus of public attention and possibly action This is the initial stage in the formation of public opinion

Our pictures of the world

Public opinion responds not to the real-world environment, but to the pseudo-environment constructed by the news media E.g. KONY 2012

Public Opinion
Public opinion Opinions of those not in government, yet claiming some voice in public affairs (Lazarsfeld) The comprehensive preferences of the majority of individuals on an issue (Entman and Herbst) Habermas: public opinion is formed outside government, but also outside the home

Why is it so crucial?
Comes back to our understanding of democratic theory The responsiveness of government policy to citizens preferences is a central concern in normative democratic theory (Dahl) Basic question: Do politicians simply do what the public wants? The principle of delegation vs majority view/ public opinion

Why is it so crucial?
Public opinion remains a key marker of democracy Respect for public opinion is a safeguard against a dictator mobilising against democratically elected government Public opinion at times must be mobilised Public opinion can inform political action

How public opinion is formed

How public opinion is formed

ACTIVITY What kind of factors influence the process of public opinion formation?

Input stimuli - The public sphere

Individual opinion Aggregated = public opinion

How public opinion is formed

What is the basis of public opinion? Is it (only) socially constructed? Or is it refracted through several frames? A hugely complex process Starting points: Values Beliefs Norms Attitudes Opinions Social context

The formation of public opinion

Some key points to note Individuals also impose their own preferences in selecting information sources The supply of political information varies across environments This has important consequences for the information citizens ultimately obtain The public sphere does not work perfectly

Public opinion and the public sphere

For Habermas, public opinion is formed in this public sphere This has three key conditions Universality of access Rational debate Disregard for rank or status His view was that the public sphere in Western democracies is far from optimal Instead highly susceptible to elite manipulation Mediatization and media effects can distort the proper functioning of the public sphere HOW??

Analysing public opinion

Not a source of political analysis until around mid-1900s
Full extension of the franchise Rise of the middle class The spread of democratic institutions The expansion of literacy Growth of mass media communication

Assessing public opinion

ACTIVITY Working in teams You are going to assess public opinion about current British politics You want to work out who would be most likely to win a general election, if an election were to be held next week How would you go about it? What would be the 5 main questions you would ask?

How does it work?

Polling or canvassing public opinion on its own does not tell us anything directly We need to know more than just how many people are for or against something We need to know the social and demographic characteristics of the respondents Thus, a good public opinion poll ends up not with one distribution of attitudes but with many of them for different sectors of the population

Problems in assessing public opinion

What are these? Measurement problems

Problems in assessing public opinion

What are these? Measurement problems Contradictions in beliefs Views based on misconceptions
If these were altered (education), views could change

Aggregation dilemmas
i.e. the indeterminacy of majority opinion as soon as we consider tradeoffs among more than two issues at the same time

Non-attitudes
The absence of real opinions about many issues

problems... (contd)
How do you formulate the questions properly?

So as to avoid distortion, simplification and exaggeration of response

The timing of polls is crucial Can impact on responses Cause and effect? Polls are not just a measure of political attitudes and intent Increasing evidence suggests poll data influences how people vote in elections Opinion polls have become part of the political environment they are designed to monitor In itself an agenda setter!!

Constructing public opinion

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DvodhsMc2QM&list=PLDAC3B90 D67125C6E

The four referents of public opinion

Clarity issues are the media, politicians all talking about the same thing? A four-fold categorisation (Entman and Herbst)

1) MASS OPINION The simple, majority view The aggregation of individual preferences
All opinion poll results, referenda, elections regardless of how informed, or firmly held those beliefs are

The will of all (Rousseau) Most useful in instances where the details are within the comprehension of most
E.g. capital punishment

The four referents of public opinion

Mass opinion is problematic

Because it is not informed opinion

Most citizens surveyed are not ideal type citizens Those who engage in regular policy debate in the public sphere May be unlikely to vote Mass opinion is easily swayed The media have a huge shaping role in the way in which they present events

Declining Interest in Politics

In the most general sense, are you interested in politics? Very interested and interested in percent (15-24 Year-Olds)

Shell (2010)

'Enjoying the news

source: Pew Research Center

The 3-classes information society

Elite High political media use and participation

The Pseudo Informed Superficial interest in politics, basic knowledge (more of people than issues), typical audience of talkshows, Participation reduced to voting, moderate cynicism to politics and political actors

Communicative Precariat Almost no political media use, distant to politics, no participation, low knowledge, high degree of cynicism to politics and political actors

Second referent: Activated public opinion

The opinions of engaged, informed and mobilised citizens Work to shape policy issues and opinion not just during election campaigns but between them as well
Party loyalists, local community activists, interest group members

Activated public opinion

Is this the public opinion that matters? (Blumer, 1948) People with power and resources, educated citizens, closely engaged in politics The media do not have as much impact on the politically engaged Have strong, pre-existing opinion Usually tied to a coherent ideological position

Third referent: Latent public opinion

Fundamental public preferences that underlie superficial opinion Latent opinion is where public opinion will end up after an informed policy debate What people really feel, beyond media depiction etc Successful political leaders tend to be able to tap into latent opinion From engagement with multiple venues of opinion formation: mass opinion polls, activated opinion, interaction with colleagues, and experience of political life

Fourth referent: Perceived majorities

The perceptions held by opinion leaders on where public preferences lie on an issue Journalists, politicians and activist members of the public Tend to overlook the more complex reality of opinion The public wants.... Growing numbers believe... Politicians and journalists often ignore polling data Can be contradictory Can be inconvenient Selective choices can be convenient They may have other agendas

Why this framework is useful

Can help unpack the reality of what is meant by public opinion Public opinion is a constantly moving target How we capture it needs to be a process that is sophisticated enough to understand this complex and dynamic process To focus on simply one of these referents means ignoring other potentially more useful insights from the alternative referents

To conclude:
Public opinion is by no means a straightforward concept To use the term accurately, you need to be fully aware of the aspects you are considering And be aware of the limitations of this concept Public opinion is dynamic, and subject to external pressures The methodology used for sampling and capturing is therefore crucial

Analysis
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-11656690 Questions: Can you buy public opinion? And if so, how much do you have to spend? Should there be limits on partys campaign spending? If so, how should these be determined? What does this case study tell us about the public sphere?

Seminar - analysis
The Meg Whitman campaign Running to replace Schwarzenegger as Governor of California in 2010

Biography and background

Hugely successful businesswoman Graduate of Harvard Business School Worked as senior exec for Walt Disney Co. In 1980s, then DreamWorks 1998-2008 President and CEO of eBay Oversaw its development 1998: 30 employees and $4 million annual revenue 2008: 15 000 employees and $8 billion annual revenue

The campaign
Having secured the Republican nomination, went head to head with Jerry Brown (Democrat) She spent: $144 million of her own money $178.5 million from donors He spent: $31 million

Campaign ads
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VekQ1F9J-C8 http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TufO2AnYO50&NR=1 http://www.youtube.com/user/Meg2010Campaign#p/u/3/zlImfQuY68U http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=c4lVaWbNdjg&feature=c4overview-vl&list=PLD2B1ABEC401E17BD

The outcome...
Brown: 53% Whitman: 42% http://elections.msnbc.msn.com/ns/politics/2010/california/governor (So she effectively spent $50 for every vote she got)

Questions
Can you buy public opinion? And if so, how much do you have to spend? Should there be limits on partys campaign spending? If so, how should these be determined? What does this case study (Whitman-Brown) tell us about the public sphere?