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Background Brief ASEAN-China Summit: Remarks by Chinas Premier Carlyle A. Thayer October 9, 2013

[client name deleted] We request your assessment of Premier Li Keqiangs remarks at the ASEAN- China Summit in Brunei today. He gave a 7-page welcoming speech at the beginning of the meeting (extracts of his comments on the South China Sea are attached). Do you find Premier Lis comments positive or somewhat changed in tone and intention? Is it a substantive remark that ASEAN would expect? and will China honor what said today? ANSWER: Premier Li Keqiang remarks on the South China Sea represent something old and something new. What is new is the positive almost conciliatory tone of his remarks. China is now pushing for joint development. This was raised by Foreign Minister Wang Yi during his visit to Vietnam in early August. China has not yet specified where joint development is to take place. One ASEAN ambassador told me that China wants ASEAN countries to recognize Chinas sovereignty as a prerequisite. Once that is done China promises to shelve the sovereignty issue in order to engage in joint development. Premier Li has missed the opportunity to clarify ambiguity in the Chinese proposal for joint development. Premier Li statement on freedom of navigation does not mention the actions by Chinese civil authorities, and occasionally military authorities, in intimidating fishermen and supply ships from the Philippines and Vietnam operating in waters that these countries claim. On Premier Lis stress on the importance of the DOC (Declaration on Conduct of Parties in the South China Sea), he neglected to note that only four joint working groups have been set up. The DOC also calls for cooperation in safety of navigation and communication at sea. This is a sensitive area for China because of the behaviour of its civilian enforcement vessels. To be consistent China should agree to a fifth working group on safety of navigation and communication at sea. China should not be able to pick and choose which elements of the DOC it will support. Premier Lis remarks on the COC (Code of Conduct) merely repeat what has already been said, that the consultations on the COC will be held under the framework of implementing the COC. ASEAN would like this matter to be dealt with at senior official level. Premier Li made no response to this request made by ASEAN leaders at

2 their last summit. Premier Lis remarks about working to advance the COC in an active and prudent manner under the principle of consensus building means that China will use consensus building to veto any proposal it does not agree with. China is seeking to separate and contain the South China Sea issues from spoiling China-ASEAN relations in general. China hopes to lure ASEAN countries into cooperation on economic issues in the hopes that they will not press the South China Sea COC too hard. China needs to explain its position in more detail and it needs to raise the consultations on the COC to senior official level.

Suggested citation: Carlyle A. Thayer, ASEAN-China Summit: Remarks by Chinas Premier, Thayer Consultancy Background Brief, October 9, 2013. All background briefs are posted on Scribd.com (search for Thayer). To remove yourself from the mailing list type UNSUBSCRIBE in the Subject heading and hit the Reply key. Thayer Consultancy provides political analysis of current regional security issues and other research support to selected clients. Thayer Consultancy was officially registered as a small business in Australia in 2002.