(Source: CIA World Factbook 2008) 
 
‘Comment’

Environmental Migration Risk Outlook

The status of present day small scale agriculture in developing countries and how it will add
to the migration of communities.
Following on from “The ‘Tidal Drift’ Effect of Migration Due to Environmental Changes”
 Environmental Migration Risk Outlook
In the document “The ‘Tidal Drift’ Effect of Migration Due to Environmental Changes” were seen examples
of organisations and agencies looking at the legal issues of environmental migrants and it was stated that
these organisations and agencies failed to take into account the precarious state of natural resources when
they put forward estimates of the number of environmental migrants to be expected by 2050.
“There is no doubt that parts of the globe are altering due to changes in the climate and especially so where food
production has declined sufficiently to cause alarm amongst local communities. Local communities are well used to
tolerating climate changes (drought, flooding etc) that last a season or two or in some examples, a year or two; but
when these changes start to exceed a time period beyond which it is very difficult to maintain a reasonable lifestyle;
then relocation becomes a viable option within these communities.”
From: The ‘Tidal Drift’ Effect of Migration Due to Environmental Changes
When it was argued that research organisations failed to take into account the precarious state of existing
natural resources, it was also stated that at most risk is agricultural production required to feed the nations.
“The present estimates of (up to) 200 million people (around 2% of the estimated total population of the world by
2050) being displaced by climate change by 2050 may be relevant to known (or projected) consequences, leaving
out probabilities due to other consequences. With poor soil management over many generations there are already
many millions that are (possibly) on the verge of migrating to the urban areas, due to ever declining crop yields and
ever increasing pest and disease infestations. Some published documents on the subject of climate change effects,
fail to take into account the precarious state of agriculture as it is now in many areas and climate changes can only
exacerbate the immediate situation to a point whereby rural communities are at very high risk of collapsing and
adding to the number of migrants. Poor soil management, loss of soil moisture, loss of local crop species, extended
droughts and also extended rainfall have halved yields in small scale agriculture (generally known as subsistence
farming) and small farmers are already looking for new opportunities elsewhere, although they are being beaten to
the best land sites by larger farmers. Where once many small farmers were subsistent farmers, they are now sub-
subsistent farmers and the majority of food produced still comes from the small farmers. Marginal farmers are also a
great risk.”
From: The ‘Tidal Drift’ Effect of Migration Due to Environmental Changes
The map on the front page (from the CIA World Factbook 2008) sets the scenario for this document, as
poverty is at the root of many of the problems to do with the environmental concerns. Impoverished people
drift and impoverished people cannot afford to look after their land resources as well as others may be
expected to.
Some of the associated problems:
Although the list below shows some of the individual problems associated with crop production, imagine a
combination of these problems that cause farmers to lose interest in crop production, especially as many
now experience the inability to grow sufficient for their families and many are in debt to local stores and
schools. Where the farmers were once self-sufficient many now have to take paid employment outside of
their farms in order to meet their family’s needs. The list could be longer, but this is sufficient for the
immediate purpose.
1 – In many areas ambient temperatures have already risen to a degree whereby even heat tolerant
crops are starting to produce less yields.
2 – Increased and unseasonable temperatures have caused greater crop pest and disease
problems. Many pests are now resistant to chemical brands.
3 – In many areas the soil moisture content has dropped to a level that does not provide sufficient
moisture to maintain plant growth and as a result of this, plants mature quicker thus reducing yield.
4 – In other areas, out of season rainfall and very heavy rain precipitations have caused unusual
levels of flooding or saturation of soils that starve plants of oxygen; either killing the plants or
severely restricting growth and / or yields. Heavy saturation of soil with rainwater has also caused
soil erosion.
5 – Extensive droughts in some areas have made crop production impossible, or at best very limited
and dry soils that have poor structure are eroded by winds, often creating dustbowls.
6 – Poor farming practices have reduced the structure and fertility of agricultural soils.
7 – The state of many ‘farm to market’ roads is very bad, causing great difficulty in transporting
produce to markets. Many areas do not have farm to market roads.

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 8 – Many farmers are abandoning traditional crops and attempting to grow higher value exotic
crops.
9 – The majority of small and marginal farmers have to sell their freshly harvested crop in order to
raise money to pay off debts; making these farmers consumers rather than producers.
10 - Increasing encroachment of seawater into delta areas has deposited sea-salt into topsoils.

Taking a look at some of the individual points:

1 – In many areas ambient temperatures have already risen to a degree whereby even heat tolerant
crops are starting to produce less yields.
o In the southern islands of the Philippines the ambient temperature has risen by 1.5oC and rice
yields have gone down by 10% to 15% and scientists have stated that for every one degree
Celsius increase in ambient temperature rice yields will reduce by 10% to 15%. Although seen as
a tropical plant, it does not have a high tolerance to heat.
o In southern Africa previously heat tolerant varieties of vegetables have failed to cope with
average seasonal ambient temperature of 23oC plus.
o In general, ecologists have predicted that for every 1.8oC rise in temperature, crop yields will
reduce by 10%. (Earth Policy Institute).
o Many of the world’s small and marginal farmers already only produce yields of around 25% of
expectation and have been living with this for many years, although these size yields are mostly
due to poor soil and crop management and climate change will reduce these further.
2 – Increased and unseasonable temperatures have caused greater crop pest and disease
problems. Many pests are now resistant to chemical brands.
o In Asia and Africa pest and plant diseases are on the increase as higher ambient temperatures
and humidity have allowed these to proliferate. As climate changes move across continents, so
do the pests.
o Southern Europe will experience higher incidences of malaria and dengue fever as this area get
hotter.
3 – In many areas the soil moisture content has dropped to a level that does not provide sufficient
moisture to maintain plant growth and as a result of this, plants mature quicker thus reducing yield.
o Excessive heat evaporates soil moisture faster than normal and poor soil management has
caused less crop residues to be buried in the soil; reducing the moisture retentive humus.
o Drying soils get blown away in the increasing windy conditions (creating dust-eddies) leaving less
topsoil for production or soil moisture retention.
4 – In other areas, out of season rainfall and very heavy rain precipitations have caused unusual
levels of flooding or saturation of soils that starve plants of oxygen; either killing the plants or
severely restricting growth and / or yields. Heavy saturation of soil with rainwater has also caused
soil erosion.
o Very heavy rains have saturated soils and caused crop losses due to lack of soil oxygen.
o Very heavy rainfall saturates the soil causing it to become more liquid than solid and this moves
down slopes and can block drainage channels.
o Higher rainfall precipitations in northern Europe will affect food production and reduce yields,
which may or may not be offset by a rise in ambient temperatures allowing some of the colder
regions to produce more food.

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 5 – Extensive droughts in some areas have made crop production impossible, or at best very limited
and dry soils that have poor structure are eroded by winds, often creating dustbowls.
o All plants including drought resistant varieties need moisture from seed emergence through to
harvest and although many plants emerge and start to grow they receive insufficient moisture
during rapid growth periods. The plants dry out causing plants to ripen too early and yields are
much lower. In many areas now, soils have become too dry and farmers have abandoned
production.
o Where areas have remained excessively dry and winds have increased, poorly structured
topsoils are blown away, often exposing the subsoil.
o The ‘International Water Resource Management Institute’ has predicted that by the year 2025,
Pakistan, South Africa, and large parts of India and China will have scarce water resources. This,
on its own will have a major influence on food production in some of the world’s most populated
areas.
o The ‘World Resource Institute’ (UNEP) has stated that by 2025, 40% of the world’s population
will be living in countries experiencing water shortages.
6 – Poor farming practices have reduced the structure and fertility of agricultural soils.
o Having been encouraged to grow hybrid varieties of crops, using expensive inorganic fertilisers,
farmers have stopped crop rotations and land fallowing and are permanently cultivating one area
only. In these areas constant cultivating without incorporating organic matter has left the soil
structures weak and liable to erosion.
o Inorganic fertilisers are very expensive and few farmers will purchase these and thus hybrid
varieties have been planted with the results that yields are very low and soil fertility is negligible
and unsuitable for agricultural production.
o Traditional hardy varieties have been abandoned and many of these are now lost.
o Few farmers take time to ‘contour’ plant their crops which would restrict rainwater flow and fewer
farmers fail to take interest in contour cultivating and terraced crop production.
7 – The state of many ‘farm to market’ roads is very bad, causing great difficulty in transporting
produce to markets. Many areas do not have farm to market roads.
o Many of the farmers live far from the main highways and due to debts, have to sell their
harvested crops for cash and where farm to market roads exist, they are very poor and liable to
flooding and very few transporters will go to the farms.
o The high cost of fuel for transport has reduced the distance that goods transporters’ will travel
and this has raised costs to the farmers where it becomes not worth the farmers expense to take
crops to markets.
8 – Many farmers are abandoning traditional crops and attempting to grow higher value exotic
crops.
o With many small and marginal farmers struggling to gain sufficient income from traditional crops,
they have often turned to exotic crops in the expectation that these will provide the income
required. Exotic crop require high quality soil and usually, the use of fertilisers and these farmers
have neither.
o Some of the crops grown have been for the bio-fuel market and this has reduced the availability
of food crops.
9 – The majority of small and marginal farmers have to sell their freshly harvested crop in order to
raise money to pay off debts; making these farmers consumers rather than producers.
o All over Asia and Africa, small and marginal farmers have to sell their crops as soon as they are
harvested because of heavy debts incurred during a growing season and as many farmers only
grow one crop a year, they struggle. Goods and domestic foods are purchased (on credit) during
an off season and school fees have to be paid and the only means of paying off these debts is to
sell the newly harvested crops. Once the harvested crop is sold the farmers look for work outside
of the farm to be able to buy food until a next harvest.
o The value of freshly harvested (and dried) crops are very low value, as there is often a glut and
wholesalers take advantage of this and store the dried crops until market prices rise.
o Any secondary crops now grown are as part time activities, further reducing quality and quantity.

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 10 – Increasing encroachment of seawater into delta areas has deposited sea-salt into topsoils.
o In Asia and other areas, the rising level of the sea has caused low level deltas to be saturated
with saline water, which crops cannot tolerate. Delta areas in Asia are the main rice producing
areas and rice is the staple food.
o Where the sea is encroaching on fragile shores, concerns are being raised about the level of
‘liquefaction’ further inland and raising the risk of coastal erosion, especially where higher tropical
rainfall patterns are being experienced. Liquefaction is where the percentage of liquid in the soils
equals or nearly equals the amount of solids in the soil; making it very prone to movement should
the level of moisture rise to critical levels.
o In many parts of Asia, the temperature of the sea is also rising and this has a detrimental effect
on the coral reefs. Excessive temperature increases in coral, causes the coral to die and the
coral reefs are important breeding grounds for fish, especially in areas where overfishing is
occurring.
o Although many governments and researchers are trying to improve the ‘upland’ rice varieties; if
successful, these will not be widely available for many years.
o About 60% of the world’s population reside on or near the coastal areas and as coastal erosion
increases and sea levels rise, many of these residents will move inland and settle on agricultural
land resources.

Given the problems associated with food production (and the majority of the world’s food still comes from
the small and marginal farmers), two questions come to mind uppermost.
1. At what point do small farmers abandon agricultural production and turn to other sources of income
generation or migrate and is this predictable?
a. Given that many small and marginal farmers will abandon food production, as the effects of
climate change take hold, at what point will the loss of production start to have serious
consequences on the health and welfare of urban dwellers? Given also the fact that the
urban populations are dramatically increasing to a point where general and social service
provision is starting to fail.
2. Is it possible to reverse the status of small and marginal farmers?
a. Although there are many natural resources development organisations working to assist the
small and marginal farmers to improve production methods, these are very localised and
mostly ineffective and many do not consider the climatic changes that will occur during the
following decades.

For all of the doubters about climate change, there are simply too many indicators that show the world’s
climate has changed and will change further and that for all of those that expound doom and gloom, it is
not the planet that is at risk it is those that dwell on the planet, who have exacerbated a perfectly normal
occurrence that has happened before, as the poles melt and reform.

twofer’s comments  
 
 Of crucial interest to planners will be
the availability of water sources and
this map shows the areas where
there are existing water scarcity
concerns and ‘hot spots’ likely to
produce migrants from water
scarcity.
Water scarcity also influences food
security and this is of major concern
to developed nations that will have to
provide the support infrastructure for
those that are in dire need.

This map (based on United Nations

and CIA data) shows some of the
fluctuations expected in rainfall
precipitations from those experienced
now and indicate clearly those areas
where agricultural production will be
affected.

This map (from the USA

Department of Agriculture) shows
the expected dry areas of the world
and in itself is a good indicator of
where agricultural production will
[a] become impossible and [b]
become difficult, although there will
be some benefits in various areas.

twofer’s comments
 
 
 This map shows the (predicted)
temperature changes as at 2050, with
the scale showing that all areas can
expect a rise in ambient temperature.
The red areas in the northern
hemisphere therefore predict that the
ice will continue to melt, causing
further rises in sea levels and sea
temperatures.
A rise in sea temperatures will directly
affect food supplies.

Given the information currently and universally available it should be possible to predict areas that are most
at risk from community drift and it should also be possible to determine where drifting communities could be
directed towards. The alternative is to ignore the plight of at risk communities and leave natural selection to
take its toll on these communities and most would agree that this would be morally incorrect.

twofer – August 2009

References:
- The International Organisation for Migration (IOM) (Switzerland) – Migration Research Series.
- Harvard Environmental Law Review (USA) - Confronting a Rising Tide: A Proposal for a Convention on
Climate change Refugees’, Bonnie Docherty and Tyler Giannini .
- CNA Corporation (Center for Naval Analyses) (USA) – General Charles F. Wald (USAF) Rtd. National
Security and the Threat of Climate Change.
- CIA World Fact Book.
- United Nations statistics.
- USA Department of Agriculture.
- International Water Resource Management Institute.
- Earth Policy Institute.
- World Resource Institute (UNEP).

twofer’s comments