24 May 2013

Credit Research

Credit View - European Auto ABS

Still on cruise control

So far, European Auto ABS issuance has been seemingly immune to slowing car sales and other funding opportunities for some automakers. What's more, as the European ABS market faces a supply squeeze on much lower primary market volumes in other core sectors, auto transactions have seen steady issuance. When it comes to placing volumes of riskier mezzanine or junior classes which offer higher spreads, the sector has staged a small comeback, albeit far off previous volumes.

Contents The European Auto ABS sector in 2013 __________ 2 New issuance and outstanding volumes __________ 3 Structural features and collateral characteristics ____ 6 Spread development _________________________ 8 Originators _________________________________ 9 Investors__________________________________ 11 Collateral and rating performance ______________ 12 Outlook___________________________________ 13

Related Research Securitization Market Watch, 21 May 2013

Issuance volume (EUR bn)

The sectors spread tightening was accompanied by robust collateral performance. Despite the overall improvements in performance metrics and the resilience to deterioration in macroeconomic conditions in some jurisdictions, collateral performance remains subject to substantial regional variation. Solid collateral performance is also reflected in ratings stability for Germany and the UK, whereas other jurisdictions have seen numerous downgrades following sovereign downgrades and due to collateral underperformance.

NEW ISSUANCE OF AUTO ABS BY QUARTER

Public Private Retained Deal count (RS)

9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0
1Q03

18 16 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0

3Q03

1Q04

3Q04

1Q05

3Q05

1Q06

3Q06

1Q07

3Q07

1Q08

3Q08

1Q09

3Q09

1Q10

3Q10

1Q11

3Q11

1Q12

3Q12

Investors are likely to add the most value in this sector by analyzing deals backed by non-traditional collateral (e.g. ABS backed by residual value leases or UK Hire Purchase contracts) as well as by transactions securitizing collateral outside core jurisdictions. Given the spread pick-up in those transactions and the resilient collateral performance, particularly in France and Italy, we still see room for further upside in peripheral transactions and those from less frequent issuers.

Source: UniCredit Research, ConceptABS

OUSTANDING VOLUMES BY ASSET TYPE

Loans Leases Leases incl. RV Leases and Loans Floorplan

45 Outstanding volume (EUR bn) 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0

Most subordinate spreads come with a substantial pick-up over seniors and are adequately protected. In addition, while the lower end of the capital structure also remains attractive, issuance of mezzanine and junior tranches is still negligible. For investors on the buying side, however, paper remains hard to come buy. In addition, we are facing unchanged already tight spreads across in the core sectors and are observing a flattening of the curves, as we seem to have reached floor levels in Auto ABS at the short end.

Author Manuel Trojovsky (UniCredit Bank) Credit Strategy & Structured Credit +49 89 378-14145 manuel.trojovsky@unicreditgroup.de

Bloomberg UCCR

Internet www.research.unicreditgroup.eu

UniCredit Research

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Mar-01 Sep-01 Mar-02 Sep-02 Mar-03 Sep-03 Mar-04 Sep-04 Mar-05 Sep-05 Mar-06 Sep-06 Mar-07 Sep-07 Mar-08 Sep-08 Mar-09 Sep-09 Mar-10 Sep-10 Mar-11 Sep-11 Mar-12 Sep-12 Mar-13

Source: Bloomberg, UniCredit Research

See last pages for disclaimer.

1Q13

24 May 2013

Credit Research

Credit View - European Auto ABS

The European Auto ABS sector in 2013

Auto transactions continue to see steady issuance

The appeal of Auto ABS transactions to investors is unabated, particularly against the backdrop of a lack of issuance in other European ABS sectors. The spread pick-up against German benchmark transactions offered by French and Italian transactions and other non-traditional originators has generated renewed interest in Auto ABS paper. In this piece, we address five key subjects relevant to the sector. First, we give a broad overview of recent issuance and discuss factors which could drive future issuance activity and other factors which could constrain the number of new deals. In the second section, we outline deals issued in 2013 and their structural and collateral characteristics. In the third part, we look at the tightening in issuance spreads and secondary market spread performance. Originators' reliance on the sector and investor participation are highlighted in the fourth part. The fifth section highlights the divergent trends between the jurisdictions in collateral performance as well as the variation in ratings stability across countries. So far, European Auto ABS issuance has been seemingly immune to slowing car sales and unprecedentedly low funding costs for some automakers through other financing opportunities such as deposits and bonds. What's more, as the European ABS market faces a supply squeeze on much lower primary market volumes in other core sectors, auto transactions have seen steady issuance. As illustrated in the left chart, European Auto ABS is on the rise, albeit in a shrinking market. In contrast to other European ABS sectors such as UK RMBS, which have been recording a fall in outstanding volumes for months, the outstanding balance in Auto ABS has grown again over the past few years, courtesy of record issuance in 2011 and 2012. This has caused outstanding volumes to approach peak levels again. Furthermore, the vast majority of transactions maintained their AAA status throughout the eurozone crisis as shown in the right chart, underlining their safe-haven status. Furthermore, the increased demand for some of the riskier transactions over the last few months has been accompanied by stable performance trends in collateral pools. Credit metrics remained broadly stable, thereby defying fundamental factors such as rising unemployment in some countries. While all of this has been good news for investors over the past years, this does not mean that the market is entirely predictable. In the following, we shed some light on how the sector evolved over the past several years, discuss future challenges and draw parallels as to where the sector has come from and where we are today.

EUROPEAN AUTO ABS: A LARGER SHARE IN THE OVERALL ABS MARKET ON RISING NET SUPPLY Gaining ground: New issuance of Auto ABS vs. other European ABS
100% 80% 3.9% 1.8% 2.3% 2.9% 10.4% 12.1% 8.2% 17.1% 20.7% 24.6%

Outstanding volumes continue to be largely rated AAA

45 40 35 Volume (EUR bn) 30 25 20 15 10 5 AAA AA A BBB BB B CCC CC C D

60% 40% 20% 0% 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 YTD

0 Mar-00 Mar-01 Mar-02 Mar-03 Mar-04 Mar-05 Mar-06 Mar-07 Mar-08 Mar-09 Mar-10 Mar-11 Mar-12 Mar-13

Other Sectors

Auto ABS

Source: UniCredit Research, Bloomberg

UniCredit Research

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24 May 2013

Credit Research

Credit View - European Auto ABS

New issuance and outstanding volumes

2012 saw record issuance in European Auto ABS

When it comes to primary market activity in the European ABS universe, Auto ABS remains a tower of strength. Since 2009, when investor-placed issuance was back down to the volume in 1999, the sector has gained traction on rapid issuance growth from public and private deals. Post-crisis, the European Auto ABS market grew to about EUR 23.7bn in 2012 from about EUR 14.5bn in 2009. On closer inspection, however, the left chart highlights that if it had not been for retained transactions, new issuance volumes today would not look too different from where they stood in 2007. The right chart shows a quarterly issuance breakdown, highlighting the fact that much of the issuance in 4Q08 up until 4Q09 was retained by the originators, while investor-placed issuance had dried up virtually completely. Following the growing illiquidity in the interbank market as well as the fact that some investors had lost confidence in ABS, the European Central Bank (ECB) and the Bank of England (BoE) relaxed the criteria under which they accepted collateral from banks to whom they were providing liquidity. In order to assist banks and automakers financing arms with banking licenses in raising funds, ABS became eligible as collateral for the ECB's credit operations, subject to certain requirements. Subsequently, originators began very quickly to structure new transactions to raise more financing from their central bank. The issued notes are typically purchased by the banks themselves, making them complete in-house transactions. The right chart illustrates that this activity continued well beyond the period immediately after the crisis in 2008/2009 and is still common. In 2013, the Auto ABS sector accounts for about 25% of investor-placed European ABS volumes to date (vs. 20.7% in the entire 2012) with EUR 5.3bn in new issuance, slightly ahead of the EUR 4.9bn seen up to the same time in 2012. Overall issuance in 2013 YTD (including self-subscribed deals for central bank funding purposes and retained tranches) so far totals roughly EUR 7.2bn (vs. EUR 8.3bn to the same point in 2012). This year, we have seen twelve new transactions, but at least three additional deals are currently in the pipeline. While Auto ABS issuance remains a key funding source for captives (that is, automakers financing arms) and non-captives (i.e. consumer banks) and is competitive with unsecured auto issuance in terms of secondary market spreads (compared to the iBoxx EUR automobile index' asset swap spread of around 55bp, for example), it is hardly predictable.

ISSUANCE HAS PEAKED IN 2012 Public issuance volumes are not back to 2007 levels
25 Issuance volume (EUR bn) 20 38 15 29 10 5 7 0 2013 YTD 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 8 8 15 11 16 13 15 17 20 22 18 12 Public Private Retained Deal count (RS) 50 45 Issuance volume (EUR bn) 40 Number of Deals 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0

Retained activity has continued well beyond the credit crunch

9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0
1Q03 3Q03 1Q04 3Q04 1Q05 3Q05 1Q06 3Q06 1Q07 3Q07 1Q08 3Q08 1Q09 3Q09 1Q10 3Q10 1Q11 3Q11 1Q12 3Q12 1Q13

Public

Private

Retained

Deal count (RS)

18 16 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0

Source: UniCredit Research, ConceptABS

UniCredit Research

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24 May 2013

Credit Research

Credit View - European Auto ABS

Originators continue to expand their securitization activities to new jurisdictions

The upper left chart depicts issuance by jurisdiction, that is, the underlying assets' country of origin as opposed to that of the originator. Needless to say, German collateral remains the driving force behind issuance activity, with consistent supply over the years as shown by the stacks. German transactions account for about 48.2% of issuance, followed by Italian (10.9%) and French (10.7%) auto deals. The graph also shows a striking increase in Auto ABS issuance in France, as local originators are stepping up their securitization activities since Auto ABS remains a comparatively cheaper source of funding, particularly for French captives. Additionally, some issuers continue to expand their securitization activities to new jurisdictions. Santander, for example, issued Auto ABS transactions backed by collateral from Denmark, Finland, Norway and Sweden over the past two years, while BMW and GE Money Bank originated Swiss transactions. Finally, the upper right chart plots outstanding volumes of Auto ABS, illustrating the extent to which volumes shrank in the wake of the crisis. Although not immediately obvious, German transactions make up a slightly lower percentage here since they tend to be static by nature, thus having shorter weighted-average lives (WALs). More importantly, there has been a shift among jurisdictions, most notably affecting Spain and Italy, whose volumes have decreased since peaking in 2008/2009, towards greater French and UK volumes. All in all, the European landscape now comprises more jurisdictions, reflecting the above mentioned expansion efforts.

ISSUANCE BY COUNTRY AND OUTSTANDING VOLUMES IN AUTO ABS German collateral accounts for about 48% of European issuance
80 70 EUR bn equivalent 60 50 Volume (EUR bn) 40 30 20 10 0
Norway Italy Germany Switzerl. Sweden France Spain Austria Portugal Netherl. Belgium Denmark Finland Poland Russia Multi UK

Outstanding volumes of Spanish and Italian notes shrank markedly

Germany Spain Belgium Finland Switzerland France Netherlands Austria Sweden UK Portugal Russia Denmark Italy Norway Cross-Border Poland

45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 Mar-00

1996 2005

1997 2006

1998 2007

1999 2008

2000 2009

2001 2010

2002 2011

2003 2012

2004 2013

Jun-03

Sep-06

Dec-09

Mar-13

PLACED MEZZANINE/JUNIOR NOTES AND SECURITIZED COLLATERAL Just a drop in the bucket when measured against previous issuance
1,200 1,000 800 600 400 200 0 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Private Public Number of tranches (RS) 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 0 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 YTD

Out of the niche: Residual values securitization saw record issuance

25 Auto Fleet Dealer Floorplan Auto Leases (incl. RV) Auto Leases Auto Loans 15

Issuance volume (EUR mn)

Issuance volume (EUR bn)

20

10

Source: UniCredit Research, Bloomberg, ConceptABS

UniCredit Research

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24 May 2013

Credit Research

Credit View - European Auto ABS

Mezzanine and junior notes are rare

When it comes to placing volumes of riskier mezzanine or junior classes which offer higher spreads, the sector has staged a small comeback, albeit far off previous volumes. The left chart shows that in 2012, for example, issuance volumes of such notes have still been negligible, totaling just EUR 225mn vs. EUR 1.12bn in 2006. Meanwhile, the market has seen a growing number of transactions backed by riskier residual values (RV), which come with higher risk premiums, as indicated in the right chart. Most of these deals have come from less well-known issuers or from those captives deemed to have higher credit risk.

DECLINING CAR SALES MAY REDUCE THE NEED FOR SECURITIZATION Anemic car sales in Europe a drag on issuance volumes?
Introduction of car scrapping scheme in France/Germany EU 27 New Car Registrations (yoy) New car registrations (% change yoy)

Car sales across the largest markets: the UK is bucking the trend
30% 20% 10% 0% -10% -20% -30% Germany France UK Italy Spain 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 YTD

30 20 % change (yoy) 10 0 -10 -20 -30 Apr-04 Apr-05

Apr-06

Apr-07

Apr-08

Apr-09

Apr-10

Apr-11

Apr-12

Apr-13

Oct-04

Oct-05

Oct-06

Oct-07

Oct-08

Oct-09

Oct-10

Oct-11

Oct-12

Source: UniCredit Research, Bloomberg

Issuance drivers

What drives issuance volumes in European Auto ABS? Broadly speaking, it depends on available collateral, originators' funding needs, and the sector's appeal to investors, among other things. For one thing, the origination of Auto ABS requires sufficient quantities of loan or leasing contracts which can then be securitized. Car sales are typically correlated with fundamental factors such as unemployment and consumer confidence, as well as lending to consumers, which in turn is reflected in new car registrations. The decline in car sales across Europe (with the UK being a notable exception among the largest European markets), for example, is likely to prove a drag on higher issuance, at least to some extent. Over the past few months, the European car market has suffered a further shrinkage in new car registrations (see left chart above), owing to flagging sales in France, Germany, Italy and Spain. The UK in turn, which had seen record issuance in 2012, with primary market volumes totaling the equivalent of EUR 3.7bn, has seen rising new car registrations which could spur Auto ABS issuance growth in our opinion. Secondly, although some captives have increasingly relied on secured funding considerably extending their securitization activities, other originators (notably VW Bank) used its growing shorter-dated client deposits as a source of funding. We believe that the recourse to securitization will increase for some captives over the next few years, particularly in France where automakers have experienced rising unsecured financing costs. According to Moodys, for example, securitization operations could reach 30% of funding profiles for some car financing companies over the coming years. On the other hand, German captives have used the difficult market conditions and regulatory uncertainty as an opportunity to substantially expand their deposit-gathering activities. Unlike captives such as Banque PSA Finance, FGA Capital or RCI Banque, VW Bank largely funds itself through client deposits (roughly 70%, as of June 2012) rather than through wholesale funding, thus obviating the need for more Auto ABS issuance.

UniCredit Research

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24 May 2013

Credit Research

Credit View - European Auto ABS

Structural features and collateral characteristics

Structural features

Structures in European deals differ among transactions, and generally depend on the expected losses derived from the historical performance of collateral as well as on the targeted credit rating sought by the originator, among other things. The table below provides an overview of structural characteristics in recent transactions that stem from well-established Auto ABS programs. As observed in previous years, Auto ABS transactions issued in 2013 predominantly feature static structures with the exception of COMP 2013-1 and BSKYS, which come with revolving structures (please refer to the table below). It becomes apparent that transactions with revolving periods and those that also securitize the cars' residual values (e.g. COMP 2013-1, BSKYS) as well as those backed by loans with voluntary termination agreements as common in the UK (e.g. ABEST 8) require significantly higher levels of subordination. In addition, while most deals pay floating-rate (e.g. DRVON 10, VCL 17, SCGA 2013-1, ABEST 8), we note an increasing trend towards fixed-rate transactions, as in ECAR 2013-1 and BSKYS. The latter coupon types dispense with the need for a swap provider, whose range of potential counterparties has shrunk significantly following widespread bank downgrades. The relatively short expected WAL of auto ABS notes, typically between one and three years, reduces investors exposure to interest-rate fluctuations in that case. This fact could potentially increase investors acceptance of fixed-rate issuance, according to S&P. WAL, however, is typically not used to calculate interest rate risk, as it is focuses on principal repayments, ignoring interest payments. Indeed, it is the time-weighted period during which principal is outstanding.

STRUCTURAL CHARACTERISTICS IN RECENT EUROPEAN TRANSACTIONS

ABEST 8 SCGA 2013-1 ECAR 2013-1 DRVON 10 GLDR 2012-A BSKYS (fixed) COMP 2013-1 VCL 17

Launch date Structure Senior Mezzanine Junior/Sub Loan Replenishment period AAA Size AAA Credit Enhancement Subordination Reserve Fund (RF) Overcollateralization Excess Spread Maturity Interest WAL (Seniors) Interest Type Spread (senior class) Swap provider Swap counterparty

3/27/13 GBP 218.8mn GBP 41.3mn (Sub) GBP 39.7mn Static 73% 28.30% 13.78% 1.50% 13.24% N/A 0.86Y floating 1mL+47bp yes Credit Agricole

3/26/13 EUR 549mn EUR 51mn Static 92% 9.50% 8.50% 1.00% N/A 4.0% 1.66Y floating 1mE+38bp yes HSBC

2/22/13 EUR 500mn EUR 30.6mn (Sub) EUR 27.9mn Static 94.20% 12.40% 10.51% 1.89% N/A 4.6% 1.64Y fixed 0.852% (MS+61bp) no N/A

1/24/13 EUR 920mn EUR 32.5mn (Sub) 41.5mn Static 92% 9.20% 7.40% 1.20% 0.60% 0.0% 1.82Y floating 1mE+25bp yes Raiffeisen

11/21/12 EUR 500.1mn EUR 30.9mn EUR 31.0mn Static 89% 11.94% 11.00% 1.00% N/A 3.8% 1.97Y floating 1mE+37bp yes HSBC

4/29/13 CHF 220.5mn CHF 57.9mn CHF 21.6mn 36m revolving 73.50% 27.50% 26.50% 1.00% 4.6% 3Y (call date) fixed 0.313% (MS+17bp) no N/A

5/2/13 EUR 361.2mn EUR 116.4mn 12m revolving 75.63% 26.12% 24.73% 1.75% 3.7% 2.7Y floating 1mE + yes HSBC/ JP Morgan

2/28/13 EUR 697.5mn EUR 21mn (Sub) 22.5mn Static 93% 8.20% 7.00% 1.20% 0.0% 1.29Y floating 1mE+25bp yes BNS

Source: Offering Circulars, Rating Agency Presales, UniCredit Research

New transactions provide higher CE levels for seniors

The lower left chart indicates that, while we have seen more issuance of residual value transactions owing to greater investor risk appetite, among others, the amount of credit enhancement in those transactions remains far greater than in most other Auto ABS. As far as overall CE levels are concerned, we note that post-crisis transactions are structured such that they provide higher protection on average for senior noteholders. While AAA notes in VCL transactions still come with CE levels on the order of 8%, most auto loan deals now display CE in the range of 9-15%, even for long-standing programs that have shown solid performance. The lower right chart in turn points out that pre-crisis transactions exhibit a much higher concentration in terms of CE levels and issuance spreads, with rating agencies

UniCredit Research

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24 May 2013

Credit Research

Credit View - European Auto ABS

evidently placing less emphasis on differentiating among factors such as collateral characteristics, country of origin and issuer. Moreover, investors had accepted lower compensation for comparable transactions originated between 2005 and 2007 that offered less protection. Conversely, transactions originated between 2011 and 2013 exhibit much wider dispersion in CE levels and issuance spreads, suggesting that investors have become more cautious, whereas rating agencies fine-tuned their rating methodologies and stress assumptions.
CREDIT SUPPORT NOW DIFFERS STRONGLY AMONG VARIOUS TYPES OF TRANSACTIONS Safety first: CE levels are now higher in RV transactions
40% 35% Credit enhancement 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% May-99 Auto Loans Auto Leases (incl. RV) Auto Dealer Floorplan Auto Leases and Loans Auto Leases

Spreads and CE levels in newer deals display greater dispersion

2013 300 250 Issuance spread (bp) 200 150 100 50 0 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% CE 25% 30% 35% 40% 2012 2011 2007 2006 2005

May-01

May-03

May-05

May-07

May-09

May-11

May-13

Source: UniCredit Research, ConceptABS

Collateral characteristics

The underlying assets in 2013 transactions have predominantly been standard, fixed-rate, fully amortizing auto loans, but also hire purchase (HP) loans (as in ABEST 8), allowing for voluntary termination by the borrower provided that over 50% of the loan has been repaid. This exposes the deal to residual value risk, as voluntary termination is most likely in a scenario in which the amount outstanding exceeds the value of the vehicle, that is, when the obligor has a negative equity position in the vehicle. The number of transactions that carry residual value risk the risk that a vehicles value at maturity is less than originally expected had increased in 2012 to their highest level since 2006 (see chart below). This risk is usually accounted for through higher CE levels by rating agencies, while the notes tend to price at higher spreads. The table below outlines the most important collateral features in the pools backing more recent transactions from major European Auto ABS programs. It depicts some of the key variables in which collateral differs as previously addressed and provides specific quantities. In terms of the weighted-average interest rate (WA interest), borrowers with lower creditworthiness tend to pay higher interest rates. Moreover, captives tend to offer lower rates (e.g. DRVON 10, GLDR 2012-A), especially in cases where loans are subsidized by the automakers themselves. The table also suggests a striking link between the portion of new vehicles, weighted-average remaining term and the average loan balance, which is most evident in SCGA 2013-1, the only non-captive transaction, when compared to the other pools.

UniCredit Research

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24 May 2013

Credit Research

Credit View - European Auto ABS

COLLATERAL CHARACTERISTICS IN RECENT TRANSACTIONS

Type Deal Name Issuer Country WA IR Balloon Loans (%) 77.50% 39.50% 83.10% 82.12% 76.50% N/A N/A N/A Vehicle type 82% new 40% new 88.1% new 65.7% new 69.0% new 80% new 82% new 94.7% new WA term (remaining) 1.96Y 3.96Y 2.83Y 3.08Y 3.52Y 2.47Y 2.33Y 2.70Y WA seasoning 1.61Y 0.97Y 0.63Y 0.83Y 0.62Y 1.49Y 1.08Y 0.64Y Average Loan Balance GBP 10,241 EUR 9,861 EUR 11,226 EUR 14,084 EUR 14,680 CHF 28,735 N/A N/A Obligors

Loans

ABEST 8 SCGA 2013-1 ECAR 2013-1 DRVON 10 GLDR 2012-A

FGA (Fiat) Santander Consumer GMAC Bank VW Bank FCE Bank (Ford) BMW Banque PSA VW Leasing

UK Germany Germany Germany Germany Switzerland Germany Germany

6.89% 5.70% 6.55% 3.83% 3.30% N/A N/A N/A

29,271 60,845 49,763 70,294 36,828 N/A N/A 48,099

Leases (incl. RV) BSKYS (fixed) COMP 2013-1 Leases VCL 17

Source: UniCredit Research

Spread development
Primary market spreads

Primary market pricing levels hit new lows in 2013, with spreads for DRVON 10 and VCL 17 both set at 1ME+25bp. However, strong investor demand also became apparent in other transactions: ECAR 2013-1, for example, priced at just 61bp over MidSwap (0.852% fixed rate), while the previous transaction, ECAR 2012-1, had a spread of 1ME+125bp. The same pattern holds in jurisdictions outside Germany, with ABEST 8 pricing at 1ML+47bp the tightest spread for a UK deal post crisis. Below we charted issuance spreads over EURIBOR of senior tranches placed with investors. While issuance spread levels are clearly wider than in the run-up to the crisis, when they were issued close to EURIBOR flat regardless of issuer, collateral type or jurisdiction, the tightening trend is in full swing again. For transactions that securitize residual values (RV), which have been issued at the highest spread post crisis, the premium has also come down markedly, as in the case of COMP 2013-1 launched at 1ME+80bp (2.7Y WAL, 24.3% CE) compared with COMP 2010-1 at 1ME+135bp (1.9Y WAL, 26.5% CE) in 2010. That said, the extra premium vs. benchmark transactions (e.g. VW's VCL) arising solely from the riskier collateral, however, is difficult to measure, given the fact that most RV deals were issued by new or infrequent originators often securitizing assets from jurisdictions that investors are less familiar with (e.g. HIGHW 2012-1, BUMP 2012-5, BSKYS).

PRIMARY MARKET SPREADS: 1999 TO DATE Primary market spread compression in full swing
250 Auto Leases Auto Leases and Loans Dealer Floorplan Auto Leases (incl. RV) Auto Loans

German benchmark transactions headed for pre-crisis levels

250 Austria Germany Netherlands Russia Belgium Italy Norway Spain France Multi Portugal UK

200 Issuance spread (bp) Issuance spread (bp) May-01 May-03 May-05 May-07 May-09 May-11 May-13

200

150

150

100

100

50

50

0 May-99

0 May-99 May-01 May-03 May-05 May-07 May-09 May-11 May-13

Source: UniCredit Research

UniCredit Research

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Credit View - European Auto ABS

SECONDARY MARKET SPREADS AND TOTAL RETURNS Trending sideways as all-in yields lose appeal to investors
German Auto ABS AAA European Auto ABS AAA (excl. Germany) 1-month EURIBOR (RS)

Senior Auto ABS remain strong cash surrogates

112 600 Total Return (%) 500 400 300 200 100 110 108 106 104 102 100 iBoxx Automobiles & Parts European Auto ABS AAA German Auto ABS AAA French Auto ABS AAA

600 500 Spread (bp) 400 300 200 100 0 Feb-07

EURIBOR

98 Jul-11 Oct-11 Jul-12 Oct-12 Apr-11 Apr-12 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Apr-13

May-08

Aug-09

Nov-10

Feb-12

0 May-13

Source: UniCredit Research, Markit, Bloomberg

Secondary market spreads

Secondary market spreads have been trending sideways recently, following significant spread compression in 2011 and 2012. With interest rates at record lows resulting in ever lower all-in yields, spread-tightening has taken a breather, as investors have been reluctant to accept even lower compensation by driving spreads towards pre-crisis levels. This has even entailed marginally softer spreads in some core transactions, at least temporarily. The upper left chart plots European Auto ABS spreads (excluding German transactions) and those from German deals. It also maps the 1-month EURIBOR rate to which most European Auto ABS deals are referenced, highlighting its downward trajectory since mid-2011. As in other European ABS sectors, the market continues to be characterized by a lack of supply from higher yielding jurisdictions or collateral. That said, spreads for Italian transactions such as ABEST 7, for example, have tightened substantially (to levels around 1ME+135bp compared with 1ME+230bp at the time of launch). Given the tightening trend in Italian auto ABS, the re-issue of Banque PSAs COMP 2012-2 in the secondary market and the recent launch of Italian consumer ABS MONVI 2013-1, which was part-placed with investors and contains a large share of auto loans, we expect to see additional Italian Auto ABS transactions in 2H13. The right chart above plots total returns for French, German and overall European transactions AAA Auto ABS against the iBoxx Automobiles and Parts corporate bond index since the beginning of 2011. While we acknowledge that the comparison is somewhat flawed given the difference in terms of maturity/WAL and a partially different investor base, we would like to point out the sector's resilience in times of market volatility vs. their originators' unsecured bonds. With the rally for Auto ABS taking place after the normalization in the European ABS market in 2009/2010, the sector only recorded moderate returns in the period since 2011. While they had outperformed corporate bonds up until mid-2011, underlining their safe-haven status, total returns have been modest, in particular for German AAAs.

Total returns

Originators
Auto ABS provide a relatively inexpensive funding opportunity for originators

The Auto ABS market is an equally important key funding tool for both captives and noncaptives as for independent auto finance companies. Additional benefits from an issuer's perspective include, among other things, increased liquidity through a diversification of funding, risk transfer by taking assets off the balance sheet, regulatory capital relief available to banks and the reduction of funding costs compared to unsecured borrowing (i.e. by issuing bonds). The latter factor has become crucial for some issuers, given a deterioration in some of the issuers ratings. Currently, auto ABS provide a relatively inexpensive way of funding, in particular for those automakers that have been impacted by the adverse economic

UniCredit Research

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Credit View - European Auto ABS

environment and the sovereign debt crisis when compared to funding through the corporate bond market. For some French and Italian automakers, factors such as high unemployment and consumer reluctance have been a drag on car sales, thereby reducing revenues, as discussed in the section on primary market activity. This resulted in downgrades due to deteriorating credit metrics, while lower sovereign ratings additionally weighed on Italian carmakers. Funding through ABS allows these captives to raise financing more cheaply than by issuing unsecured debt. Given the diverging credit default swap (CDS) spreads reflecting the automakers' credit risk, as shown in the upper left chart, funding conditions have clearly gotten more expensive for French originators and their captives. Unsurprisingly, these issuers have experienced negative rating drift, which is depicted in the upper right chart.
CDS SPREADS AND RATING DEVELOPMENTS CDS premiums reflect diverging funding conditions for captives.
VW Banco Santander SA Peugeot Fiat Santander UK Renault FCE Bank BMW

Ratings have taken opposite directions since the crisis

VW AAA AA+ AA AAA+ A ABBB+ BBB BBBBB+ BB BBB+ B BCCC+ 2006 Banque PSA Santander (Spain) FCE Bank PLC RCI Banque LeasePlan FGA Capital BMW

1,200 1,000 CDS spread (bp) 800 600 400 200 0 May-10

Sub-Investment Grade

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

Nov-10

May-11

Nov-11

May-12

Nov-12

May-13

Source: Bloomberg, UniCredit Research

INVESTOR-PLACED ISSUANCE SINCE 2003 Issuance volumes are skewed to captives

25 Issuance volume (EUR bn) 20 15 10 5 0 Peugeot BNP Paribas Santander LeasePlan FFS Bank SocGen Renault Socram Daimler Others Ford GMAC Fiat BBVA BMW VW 15.0 8.4 7.9 4.7 4.2 3.5 2.9 2.8 2.6 2.2 1.6 1.4 1.4 1.4 10.5 Loans 24.6 Leases Dealer Floorplan Fleet

Originators' issuance frequency

VW Leasing VW Bank/DFM Santander Renault/RCI Peugeot/PSA Ford/FCE GMAC Fiat LeasePlan

Source: UniCredit Research

Captives accounted for 59% of new issuance in 2012

The leading issuers in the European auto ABS market are the captive companies which act as the financing arm of automakers and support car sales by providing financing for new vehicle purchases on behalf of their parent company the manufacturer usually made through a dealership, which is operated under the name of the car company. While captives represent a substantial portion of the auto loan or lease securitizations undertaken in Europe (roughly

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Apr-03

Oct-03

Apr-04

Oct-04

Apr-05

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Apr-06

Oct-06

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Oct-08

Apr-09

Oct-09

Apr-10

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Credit View - European Auto ABS

59% of all issuance in 2012 including retained transactions), non-captive transactions also account for a large share (around 41% in 2012). Non-captive issuers, who typically provide used car financing and leasing, continue to have a key role in the European auto ABS universe. These lenders span universal banks (some of which act through their consumer financing units), consumer banks, and leasing companies, among others. Non-captive lenders undertake a more traditional consumer loan activity in that they originate receivables irrespective of a specific make of car. When it comes to public transactions in 2012, noncaptive issuance amounted to similar volumes (around 46%) as those originated by the automakers' financing arms (around 54%). Cumulative issuance from 2003 to date is shown in the left chart above, which highlights the total volumes in European Auto ABS that originators have issued broken down by underlying collateral type. VW remains the largest European originator in auto ABS, with total non-retained issuance in excess of EUR 24.6bn and activities throughout Europe, including the DRVON program (Germany, UK, Spain and a project in France), DFM in the Netherlands, VCL in Germany. Santander, a non-captive, is the next largest issuer acting through its consumer finance branches, placing transactions backed by auto loans from eight different European jurisdictions with volumes totaling the equivalent of EUR 15bn. To complement the left chart, we also plotted the frequency and the extent to which originators rely on funding from securitizing their receivables in the right chart above. Looking at the top, one can see that VW (via VW Leasing and VW Bank/DFM) and Santander are tapping the ABS market on a regular basis, typically issuing several transactions per year.

Investors
UK and German banks remain the dominant buyers of most senior tranches

The left chart below gives a rough overview of investor participation in transactions' senior tranches of the past two years. With the exception of UK transactions, which have been predominantly picked up by asset managers, banks remain the dominant buyers of Auto ABS. Geographically, the UK, Germany, France and the Benelux continue to account for much of the investors. Interestingly, we note a growing interest from US and other foreign investors, particularly for those transactions with higher premiums. In terms of investor participation, while the investor base broadened beyond key accounts in 2010 after some investors had reentered the market, some transactions in 2013 attracted fewer investors to its senior tranches, possibly because spreads were have become too tight or were deemed not attractive enough from a risk-return perspective. Unlike senior classes, the rare junior or mezzanine tranches are in large part bought by asset managers, insurers and hedge funds.

INVESTORS IN SENIOR TRANCHES Banks remain the dominant buyers of Auto ABS
Banks Pension Funds/Insurers Others 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10%
COMP 2011-2 BUMP 2012-5 ANORI 2012-1 MOTOR 12X BSKY 3 CAR 2012-F1F ANORI 2012-2 RNBAG 2012-1 RNBAF 2012-1 CAR 2012-F1V TURBF 2012-1 TTSOC 2012-1 HIGHW 2012-1 COMP 2013-1 SCGA 2011-2 VCL 14 CAR 2011-G1 VCL 15 BILK 3 VCL 17 GLDR 2012-A SCGA 2013-1 VCL 16 DRVON 10 ECAR 2013-1 RNBTG 1 TURBF 3 ABEST 8

Non-European investors have selectively bought European deals

UK
45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0

Fund/Asset Managers Central Banks/Supras Participating Accounts (RS)

Germany

France

Benelux

Switzerland

CEE

USA

Other

COMP 2011-2

BUMP 2012-5

MOTOR 12X

TURBF 2012-1

RNBAF 2012-1

RNBAG 2012-1

TTSOC 2012-1

ANORI 2012-1

CAR 2012-F1F

ANORI 2012-2

Source: UniCredit Research, IFR, ConceptABS

UniCredit Research

HIGHW 2012-1

CAR 2012-F1V

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COMP 2013-1

VCL 16

DRVON 10

SCGA 2011-2

CAR 2011-G1

RNBTG 1

TURBF 3

ECAR 2013-1

GLDR 2012-A

SCGA 2013-1

ABEST 8

BSKY 3

VCL 14

VCL 15

BILK 3

VCL 17

0%

100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0%

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Credit Research

Credit View - European Auto ABS

Collateral and rating performance

Collateral performance remains subject to substantial regional variation

The sectors spread tightening was accompanied by robust collateral performance. In January, Moodys European Auto ABS indices recorded an improvement in cumulative defaults to 1.52%, down from 1.86% in the previous year, while 60-plus day delinquencies were broadly unchanged at 0.8% as indicated by the two charts at the bottom. Despite the overall improvements in performance metrics and the resilience to deterioration in macroeconomic conditions in some jurisdictions, collateral performance remains subject to substantial regional variation. 60-plus day delinquencies in Spain (around 3.2% in January 2013) and Portugal (around 8.4% in January 2013) are well above the European average of around 0.7%. The two Iberian countries had always seen higher delinquencies, which concerned investors, but cumulative defaults and losses were much lower at first. Starting in 2007, however, delinquencies had started to translate into losses of similar magnitude in response to the adverse economic situation in those countries (see right chart at the bottom). Consequently, those countries exhibit higher cumulative defaults at 3.7% and 7.48%, respectively, according to Moody's. Nevertheless, 60-90 day arrears are currently less than 2.5% in those countries. Meanwhile, Italian collateral has exhibited some performance deterioration, albeit only moderately. 60-plus day delinquencies rose to 1.4% in January (vs. 0.5% in January 2012), while cumulative defaults have gone up to 2.04% in January from 1.39% one year ago. If one considers CE levels of 8-12%, this has not been a concerning factor for either investors in senior transactions nor those in most mezzanine classes. On the bright side, cumulative losses in Germany and France (1.49%) remained stable (0.64%). Solid collateral performance is also reflected in ratings stability for Germany and the UK, whereas other jurisdictions have seen numerous downgrades due to collateral underperformance, as shown in the right chart on the next page, which illustrates rating changes in Auto ABS since mid-2008. However, a large number of downgrades in countries such as Italy, Portugal and Spain can be attributed to the fact that the country ceilings have been lowered by rating agencies for structured finance transactions. While Spanish transactions saw a set of downgrades for performance reasons and even some defaults for junior notes (SANCF 2007-1 D, SANCF 2007-2 E) in older deals, the ratings in other transactions such as DRVES 2011-1 A were lowered solely due to the country ceiling rather than due to performance deterioration. Germany and the UK, in turn, have typically seen upgrades for their mezzanine or junior notes, owing to strong collateral performance along with rapid structural amortization, which builds up higher CE levels for these notes.

Sovereign downgrades weigh on rating stability

POOL PERFORMANCE: DELINQUENCIES AND CUMULATIVE DEFAULTS Performance remains subject to substantial regional variation
France delinquencies (% of cur. balance) 10 8 6 4 2 0 Jul-04 Jul-05 Jul-06 Jul-07 Jul-08 Jul-09 Jul-10 Jul-11 Jan-04 Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jul-12 Jan-13 Germany Italy Portugal Spain

In Portugal, delinquencies translated in losses of similar magnitude

France 8 defaults (% of orig. balance) 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 Jul-05 Jul-06 Jul-07 Jul-08 Jul-09 Jul-10 Jul-11 Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jul-12 Jan-13 Germany Italy Portugal Spain

Source: Moody's

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Credit View - European Auto ABS

RATING DISTRIBUTION AND RATING STABILITY The bulk of Auto ABS remains AAA The solid performance in some deals no longer reflected in ratings
Downgrades
100% 100% 98%

Upgrades

AA 13.1% A 7.8% BBB 1.0% BB 0.1% B 0.04% CC 0.6% CCC 0.5%

50% 40% 38% 18% 2% 50% 60% 62% 82% 82% 82% 86% 18% 18% 14%

AAA 76.9%

Italy (37)

France (4)

Austria (4)

Portugal (17)

UK (13)

AAA

AA

BBB

BB

CCC

CC

Source: UniCredit Research, Rating Agencies, Bloomberg

Outlook
In summary, we remain constructive regarding primary market activity, although the drop in new car registrations may reduce the need for securitization in the case of some originators. Conversely, we expect the pace of new issuance backed by French and German collateral to remain vibrant, although the number of new transactions is slightly lagging behind our 2013 forecast. That said, while the significant volumes in retained transactions or tranches seen over the past years are likely to decline, they will not disappear anytime soon. Yet, additional transactions that had been initially structured as ECB repo deals could be sold on to investors. Given stronger demand for Italian assets, lower issuance could partly be offset by previously retained deals leaving the ECB. The macroeconomic situation in many eurozone countries will continue to be the strongest driver of rating movements and fundamental weakness in auto ABS in the coming quarters. Certainly, the divergence of fundamentals and ratings between core European exposure (UK, France, Germany) and the periphery will persist. Periphery transactions remain under some fundamental pressure, even though significant performance deterioration is unlikely to materialize given the current improved performance. Despite a growing number of deals featuring revolving structures and securitizing residual values, we expect the deals outside core jurisdictions to withstand potential stress, as those potential risk factors are mitigated through sufficient CE levels and conservative trigger mechanisms. Investors are likely to add the most value in this sector by analyzing deals backed by nontraditional collateral (e.g. ABS backed by RV leases or UK HP contracts) as well as by transactions securitizing collateral outside core jurisdictions. Given the spread pick-up in those transactions and the resilient collateral performance, particularly in France and Italy, we still see room for further upside in peripheral transactions and those from less frequent issuers. In addition, while the lower end of the capital structure also remains attractive, issuance of lower mezzanine tranches is still negligible. Most subordinate spreads come with a substantial pick-up over seniors and are adequately protected. Admittedly, for investors on the buying side, paper remains hard to come buy. In addition, we are facing unchanged already tight spreads across the sector and are observing a flattening of the curves, as we seem to have reached floor levels in Auto ABS at the short end.

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Multi (21)

Germany (106)

Ukraine (11)

Russia (15)

Spain (148)

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Credit View - European Auto ABS

Disclaimer
Our recommendations are based on information obtained from, or are based upon public information sources that we consider to be reliable but for the completeness and accuracy of which we assume no liability. All estimates and opinions included in the report represent the independent judgment of the analysts as of the date of the issue. We reserve the right to modify the views expressed herein at any time without notice. Moreover, we reserve the right not to update this information or to discontinue it altogether without notice. This analysis is for information purposes only and (i) does not constitute or form part of any offer for sale or subscription of or solicitation of any offer to buy or subscribe for any financial, money market or investment instrument or any security, (ii) is neither intended as such an offer for sale or subscription of or solicitation of an offer to buy or subscribe for any financial, money market or investment instrument or any security nor (iii) as an advertisement thereof. The investment possibilities discussed in this report may not be suitable for certain investors depending on their specific investment objectives and time horizon or in the context of their overall financial situation. The investments discussed may fluctuate in price or value. Investors may get back less than they invested. Changes in rates of exchange may have an adverse effect on the value of investments. Furthermore, past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. In particular, the risks associated with an investment in the financial, money market or investment instrument or security under discussion are not explained in their entirety. This information is given without any warranty on an "as is" basis and should not be regarded as a substitute for obtaining individual advice. Investors must make their own determination of the appropriateness of an investment in any instruments referred to herein based on the merits and risks involved, their own investment strategy and their legal, fiscal and financial position. As this document does not qualify as an investment recommendation or as a direct investment recommendation, neither this document nor any part of it shall form the basis of, or be relied on in connection with or act as an inducement to enter into, any contract or commitment whatsoever. Investors are urged to contact their bank's investment advisor for individual explanations and advice. Neither UniCredit Bank nor any of their respective directors, officers or employees nor any other person accepts any liability whatsoever (in negligence or otherwise) for any loss howsoever arising from any use of this document or its contents or otherwise arising in connection therewith. This analysis is being distributed by electronic and ordinary mail to professional investors, who are expected to make their own investment decisions without undue reliance on this publication, and may not be redistributed, reproduced or published in whole or in part for any purpose. Responsibility for the content of this publication lies with: UniCredit Bank AG (UniCredit Bank), Am Tucherpark 16, 80538 Munich, Germany, (also responsible for the distribution pursuant to 34b WpHG). The company belongs to UniCredit Group. Regulatory authority: BaFin Bundesanstalt fr Finanzdienstleistungsaufsicht, Lurgiallee 12, 60439 Frankfurt, Germany. POTENTIAL CONFLICTS OF INTERESTS Company n.a. Key n.a.

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Overview of our ratings You will find the history of rating regarding recommendation changes as well as an overview of the breakdown in absolute and relative terms of our investment ratings on our website http://www.disclaimer.unicreditmib.eu/credit-research-rd/Recommendations_CR_e.pdf. Note on the evaluation basis for interest-bearing securities: Recommendations relative to an index: For high grade names the recommendations are relative to the "iBoxx EUR Benchmark" index family, for sub investment grade names the recommendations are relative to the "iBoxx EUR High Yield" index family. Marketweight: We recommend having the same portfolio exposure in the name as the respective iBoxx index. We expect that the average total return of the instruments of the issuer is equal to the total return of the index. Overweight: We recommend having a higher portfolio exposure in the name as the respective iBoxx index. We expect that the average total return of the instruments of the issuer is greater than the total return of the index. Underweight: We recommend having a lower portfolio exposure in the name as the respective iBoxx index. We expect that the average total return of the instruments of the issuer is less than the total return of the index. Outright recommendations: Hold: We recommend holding the respective instrument for investors who already have exposure. We expect that the total return of the instruments of the issuer is equal to the yield. Buy: We recommend buying the respective instrument for investors who already have exposure. We expect that the total return of the instruments of the issuer is greater than the yield. Sell: We recommend selling the respective instrument for investors who already have exposure. We expect that the total return of the instruments of the issuer is less than the yield. We employ three further categorizations for interest-bearing securities in our coverage: Restricted: A recommendation and/or financial forecast is not disclosed owing to compliance or other regulatory considerations such as a blackout period or a conflict of interest. Coverage in transition: Due to changes in the research team, the disclosure of a recommendation and/or financial information are temporarily suspended. The interest-bearing security remains in the research universe and disclosures of relevant information will be resumed in due course. Not rated: Suspension of coverage. Trading recommendations for fixed-interest securities mostly focus on the credit spread (yield difference between the fixed-interest security and the relevant government bond or swap rate) and on the rating views and methodologies of recognized agencies (S&P, Moodys, Fitch). Depending on the type of investor, investment ratings may refer to a short period or to a 6 to 9-month horizon. Please note that the provision of securities services may be subject to restrictions in certain jurisdictions. You are required to acquaint yourself with local laws and restrictions on the usage and the availability of any services described herein. The information is not intended for distribution to or use by any person or entity in any jurisdiction where such distribution would be contrary to the applicable law or provisions. Coverage Policy A list of the companies covered by UniCredit Bank is available upon request.

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Credit View - European Auto ABS

Frequency of reports and updates It is intended that each of these companies be covered at least once a year, in the event of key operations and/or changes in the recommendation. SIGNIFICANT FINANCIAL INTEREST: UniCredit Bank and/or a company affiliated (pursuant to relevant national law) with them regularly trade shares of the analyzed company. UniCredit Bank and/or a company affiliated may hold significant open derivative positions on the stocks of the company which are not delta-neutral. Analyses may refer to one or several companies and to the securities issued by them. In some cases, the analyzed issuers have actively supplied information for this analysis. ANALYST DECLARATION The authors remuneration has not been, and will not be, geared to the recommendations or views expressed in this study, neither directly nor indirectly. 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Credit Research

Credit View - European Auto ABS

UniCredit Research*
Michael Baptista Global Head of CIB Research +44 207 826-1328 michael.baptista@unicredit.eu Dr. Ingo Heimig Head of Research Operations +49 89 378-13952 ingo.heimig@unicreditgroup.de

Credit Research
Luis Maglanoc, CFA, Head +49 89 378-12708 luis.maglanoc@unicreditgroup.de

Credit Strategy & Structured Credit Research

Dr. Philip Gisdakis, Head Credit Strategy +49 89 378-13228 philip.gisdakis@unicreditgroup.de Dr. Tim Brunne Quantitative Credit Strategy +49 89 378-13521 tim.brunne@unicreditgroup.de Markus Ernst Credit Strategy & Structured Credit +49 89 378-14213 markus.ernst1@unicreditgroup.de Dr. Stefan Kolek EEMEA Corporate Credits & Strategy +49 89 378-12495 stefan.kolek@unicreditgroup.de Manuel Trojovsky Credit Strategy & Structured Credit +49 89 378-14145 manuel.trojovsky@unicreditgroup.de Dr. Christian Weber, CFA Credit Strategy +49 89 378-12250 christian.weber@unicreditgroup.de

Financials Credit Research

Franz Rudolf, CEFA, Head Covered Bonds +49 89 378-12449 franz.rudolf@unicreditgroup.de Valentina Stadler, Deputy Head Sub-Sovereigns & Agencies +49 89 378-16296 valentina.stadler@unicreditgroup.de Amey Dyckmans, CFA Sub-Sovereigns & Agencies +49 89 378-12004 anna-maria.dyckmans@unicreditgroup.de Florian Hillenbrand, CFA Covered Bonds +49 89 378-12961 florian.hillenbrand@unicreditgroup.de Dr. Tilo Hpker Banks +49 89 378-12960 tilo.hoepker@unicreditgroup.de Philipp Koerge Banks +49 89 378-12429 philipp.koerge@unicreditgroup.de Luis Maglanoc, CFA Regulatory & Accounting Service +49 89 378-12708 luis.maglanoc@unicreditgroup.de Natalie Tehrani Monfared Regulatory & Accounting Service +49 89 378-12242 natalie.tehrani@unicreditgroup.de Emanuel Teuber Banks, Financial Services, Insurance +49 89 378-14245 emanuel.teuber@unicreditgroup.de

Corporate Credit Research

Stephan Haber, CFA, Co-Head Telecoms, Technology +49 89 378-15192 stephan.haber@unicreditgroup.de Dr. Sven Kreitmair, CFA, Co-Head Automotive & Mobility +49 89 378-13246 sven.kreitmair@unicreditgroup.de Jana Arndt, CFA Basic Resources, Industrial G&S, Construction & Materials +49 89 378-13211 jana.arndt@unicreditgroup.de Christian Aust, CFA Industrial Transportation, Media, Pulp & Paper +49 89 378-12806 christian.aust@unicreditgroup.de Olga Fedotova Russia/CIS (Banks, Oil & Gas, Basic Resources, Telecoms) +44 207 826-1376 olga.fedotova@unicredit.eu Dr. Manuel Herold Consumers +49 89 378-12650 manuel-bastian.herold@unicreditgroup.de Max Huefner, CFA Chemicals, Aerospace & Defense, Packaging +49 89 378-13212 max.huefner@unicreditgroup.de Susanne Reichhuber Utilities +49 89 378-13247 susanne.reichhuber@unicreditgroup.de Alexander Rozhetskin Russia/CIS (Banks, Oil & Gas, Basic Resources, Telecoms) +44 207 826-7953 alexander.rozhetskin@unicredit.eu Dr. Silke Stegemann, CEFA Healthcare, Oil & Gas +49 89 378-18202 silke.stegemann@unicreditgroup.de

Publication Address
UniCredit Research Corporate & Investment Banking UniCredit Bank AG Arabellastrasse 12 D-81925 Munich Tel. +49 89 378-18927 Bloomberg UCCR Internet www.research.unicreditgroup.eu

*UniCredit Research is the joint research department of UniCredit Bank AG (UniCredit Bank), UniCredit Bank AG London Branch (UniCredit Bank London), UniCredit Bank AG Milan Branch (UniCredit Bank Milan), UniCredit Bank AG Vienna Branch (UniCredit Bank Vienna), UniCredit Bulbank, Zagrebaka banka d.d., UniCredit Bank Czech Republic (UniCredit Bank Czechia), Bank Pekao, ZAO UniCredit Bank Russia (UniCredit Russia), UniCredit Bank Slovakia a.s. (UniCredit Slovakia), UniCredit Tiriac Bank (UniCredit Tiriac) and ATF Bank.

UniCredit Research

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