4 de Maro 2011

Ferramentas Predictivas para a

Qualidade e Segurana Alimentar
Seminrio
UNIVERSIDADE CATLICA PORTUGUESA
Escola Superior de Biotecnologia
Taxas de Degradao
Bases para as ferramentas preditivas
Cristina L.M. Silva
Teresa S. Brando
4 de Maro 2011
Ferramentas Predictivas para a
Qualidade e Segurana Alimentar
Seminrio
UNIVERSIDADE CATLICA PORTUGUESA
Escola Superior de Biotecnologia
Cristina L.M. Silva
Teresa S. Brando
Taxas de Degradao
Bases para as ferramentas preditivas
3
Cadeia de Distribuio
Product
Design
Primary
Production
Industrial
Production
Product
Transport
Logistics
Trade
Home
Storage
Consumption
Disposal
4
Cadeia de Distribuio
Product
Design
Primary
Production
Industrial
Production
Product
Transport
Logistics
Trade
Home
Storage
Consumption
Disposal
5
Estudo e Definio de Processos
qualidade segurana
Textura
Microstructura
Cor
Vitamin C

Bacterias patognicas
Contaminantes qumicos

6
Modelagem Matemtica
y = f (x, ) +
Segurana
Qualidade
Tempo do processo Parmetros cinticos
A extenso e velocidade de produo/degradao
de uma caracterstica de segurana ou qualidade pode ser quantificada
assim como o efeito das condies de processamento nos parmetros cinticos
e consequentemente as respostas finais
7
Modelagem Matemtica
alguns conceitos ...
observao = funo matemtica ( variveis + parmetros) + erro experimental y = f (x, ) +
Estimativa dos parmetros
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000
x
y

Precisas ? Exactas ?
y
modelo
y
exp
minimizao dos desvios entre os
valores experimentais e
os obtidos pelo modelo
Modelagem Matemtica
descrio precisa e exacta das observaes
adequabilidade do modelo
qualidade dos parmetros
objectivo
Modelagem Matemtica
descrio fundamental dos processos fsico-qumicos
envolvidos
mais complexos
caixa preta
mais simples (ou no!)
aplicao prtica
ponderar vantagens e desvantagens
deciso depende do objectivo final
modelos mecansticos
modelos empricos
Modelagem Matemtica
complexidade
matemtica
descrio adequada
modelo parmetros
qualidade
Modelagem Matemtica
conhecimento do processo
efeito do processo no produto
controlo das variveis envolvidas
vantagens
Processos
Qumicos Fsicos
Processos Alimentares
Fenmenos de Transferncia
calor
massa
momentum
Cinticas de reaco
Propriedades
Modelagem matemtica
Modelagem
Funo matemtica
variveis
parmetros
dados
Esquemas de regresso
design experimental
Modelagem Matemtica
Processos
Qumicos Fsicos
Processos Alimentares
Fenmenos de Transferncia
calor
massa
momentum
Cinticas de reaco
Propriedades
Modelagem matemtica
Modelagem
Funo matemtica
variveis
parmetros
dados
Esquemas de regresso
design experimental
design Critrio
Modelagem Matemtica
Processos
Qumicos Fsicos
Processos Alimentares
Fenmenos de Transferncia
calor
massa
momentum
Cinticas de reaco
Propriedades
Modelagem matemtica
Modelagem
Funo matemtica
variveis
parmetros
dados
Esquemas de regresso
design experimental
design
validao
Critrio
Modelagem Matemtica
Processos
Qumicos Fsicos
Processos Alimentares
Fenmenos de Transferncia
calor
massa
momentum
Cinticas de reaco
Propriedades
Modelagem matemtica
Modelagem
Funo matemtica
variveis
parmetros
dados
Esquemas de regresso
design experimental
design
validao
controlo
Critrio
Modelagem Matemtica
Processos
Qumicos Fsicos
Processos Alimentares
Fenmenos de Transferncia
calor
massa
momentum
Cinticas de reaco
Propriedades
Modelagem matemtica
Modelagem
Funo matemtica
variveis
parmetros
dados
Esquemas de regresso
design experimental
design
validao
controlo
optimizao
Critrio
Objectivos
Modelagem Matemtica
Processos
Qumicos Fsicos
Processos Alimentares
Fenmenos de Transferncia
calor
massa
momentum
Cinticas de reaco
Propriedades
Modelagem matemtica
Modelagem
Funo matemtica
variveis
parmetros
dados
Esquemas de regresso
design experimental
design
validao
controlo
optimizao
Critrio
Objectivos
qualidade
segurana
Modelagem Matemtica
Modelagem Matemtica
Qualidade
19 EMG_
Modelos cinticos
t k
0
) T (
e C C

=
kt
eq 0
eq
e
C - C
C - C

=
t k C C T ) (
0
=
Tempo
Valor inicial Atributo no tempo t
Valor de equilbrio
Ordem zero
1 ordem
Fraccionrio
( )
(
(

|
|
.
|

\
|
=
ref
ref T
T
1
T
1
R
Ea
exp k k
Efeito da T em k
Lei de Arrhenius
Energia de
activao
T. referncia
Velocidade de reaco
Const. gases
Degradao de Qualidade
Heating Foods: I ntegrating quality and safety in thermal processes
pumpkin
broccoli
carrots
Branqueamento
Cucurbita maxima L.
Brassica oleracea L.
Quality
Daucus carota L.
Degradao de Qualidade
Heating Foods: I ntegrating quality and safety in thermal processes
Quality
pumpkin
Cucurbita maxima L.
Colour changes
Firmness
Peroxidase
Degradao de Qualidade

0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
0 10 20 30 40 50
Time (min)
T
C
D
*
Quality
pumpkin
Cucurbita maxima L.
Colour changes
Firmness
Peroxidase
T=95 C
T=75 C
Total Colour Difference, Hunter (L,a,b) scale, colourimeter (CR-300, Minolta)
Degradao de Qualidade

0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
0 10 20 30 40 50
Time (min)
T
C
D
*
Quality
pumpkin
Cucurbita maxima L.
Colour changes
Firmness
Peroxidase
T=95 C
T=75 C
kt
eq 0
eq
e
TCD - TCD
TCD - TCD

=
Fractional conversion model
k(T) Arrhenius
Degradao de Qualidade

0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
0 10 20 30 40 50
Time (min)
T
C
D
*

0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
0 10 20 30 40 50
Time (min)
F
i
r
m
n
e
s
s

(
N
)
Quality
pumpkin
Cucurbita maxima L.
Colour changes
Firmness
Peroxidase
T=95 C
T=75 C
T=95 C
T=75 C
Texture Analyser (Stable Micro-System Ltd, Godalming, UK)
single puncture measurement,10 mm depth of penetration, velocity of 1.0 mm s
-1
Degradao de Qualidade

0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
0 10 20 30 40 50
Time (min)
T
C
D
*

0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
0 10 20 30 40 50
Time (min)
F
i
r
m
n
e
s
s

(
N
)
Quality
pumpkin
Cucurbita maxima L.
Colour changes
Peroxidase
T=95 C
T=75 C
T=95 C
T=75 C
kt
eq 0
eq
e
Firmness - Firmness
Firmness - Firmness

=
Fractional conversion model
Firmness
k(T) Arrhenius
Degradao de Qualidade

0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
0 10 20 30 40 50
Time (min)
T
C
D
*

0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
0 10 20 30 40 50
Time (min)
F
i
r
m
n
e
s
s

(
N
)
Heating Foods: I ntegrating quality and safety in thermal processes
Quality
pumpkin
Cucurbita maxima L.

0
20
40
60
80
100
0 10 20 30 40 50
Time (min)
P
/
P
0

x

1
0
0
Colour changes
Firmness
Peroxidase
T=95 C
T=95 C
T=75 C
T=95 C
T=75 C
T=80 C
Spectrophotometry (Unicom Ltd, Cambridge, UK)
ATI Unicam spectrophotometer (Unicom Limited, Cambridge, United Kingdon).
Degradao de Qualidade

0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
0 10 20 30 40 50
Time (min)
T
C
D
*

0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
0 10 20 30 40 50
Time (min)
F
i
r
m
n
e
s
s

(
N
)
Heating Foods: I ntegrating quality and safety in thermal processes
Quality
pumpkin
Cucurbita maxima L.

0
20
40
60
80
100
0 10 20 30 40 50
Time (min)
P
/
P
0

x

1
0
0
Colour changes
Firmness
T=95 C
T=95 C
T=75 C
T=95 C
T=75 C
T=80 C
kt
e
P
P

=
0
First order kinetics
Peroxidase
k(T) Arrhenius
Degradao de Qualidade
Heating Foods: I ntegrating quality and safety in thermal processes
pumpkin
Cucurbita maxima L.
are recommended to decrease 90% of peroxidase activity, ensuring a good
retention of colour. Unavoidably, texture is greatly affected (~ 14% was
retained).
Modelling the kinetics of peroxidase inactivation and colour and
texture changes of pumpkin during blanching, will allow convenient
design of thermal processes
Stabilisation of enzymatic deterioration
Minimisation of quality losses
Blanching conditions
5.8 min at 90 C
and
3.9 min at 95 C
Degradao de Qualidade
broccoli
Brassica oleracea L.
Quality
Peroxidase
Phenolic content
Texture
Degradao de Qualidade

0
0,2
0,4
0,6
0,8
1
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16
Time (min)
P
O
D

a
c
t
i
.


(
P
/
P
0
)

70 C 75 C 80 C
85 C 90 C Global mod. fit
broccoli
Brassica oleracea L.
Peroxidase
Phenolic content
Texture
Quality
Spectrophotometry (Unicom Ltd, Cambridge, UK)
Degradao de Qualidade
0
0,2
0,4
0,6
0,8
1
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16
Time (min)
P
O
D

a
c
t
i
.


(
P
/
P
0
)

70 C 75 C 80 C
85 C 90 C Global mod. fit

broccoli
Brassica oleracea L.
Phenolic content
Texture
Quality
kt
e
P
P

=
0
First order kinetics
Peroxidase
k(T) Arrhenius
Degradao de Qualidade

0
0,2
0,4
0,6
0,8
1
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16
Time (min)
P
O
D

a
c
t
i
.


(
P
/
P
0
)

70 C 75 C 80 C
85 C 90 C Global mod. fit
Heating Foods: I ntegrating quality and safety in thermal processes
broccoli
Brassica oleracea L.
Peroxidase
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45
Time (min)
M
a
x
.

s
h
e
a
r

f
o
r
c
e

(
N
)



70 75 80 85 90 Global mod. fit
Phenolic content
Texture
Quality
Texture Analyser (Stable Micro-System Ltd, Godalming, UK)
maximum shear force , test speed 8 mm s
-1
, full-scale load 500 N
Degradao de Qualidade

0
0,2
0,4
0,6
0,8
1
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16
Time (min)
P
O
D

a
c
t
i
.


(
P
/
P
0
)

70 C 75 C 80 C
85 C 90 C Global mod. fit
broccoli
Brassica oleracea L.
Peroxidase
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45
Time (min)
M
a
x
.

s
h
e
a
r

f
o
r
c
e

(
N
)



70 75 80 85 90 Global mod. fit
Phenolic content
Quality
( ) kt force shear Max force shear Max =
0
Zero order kinetics
Texture
k(T) Arrhenius
Degradao de Qualidade

0
0,2
0,4
0,6
0,8
1
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16
Time (min)
P
O
D

a
c
t
i
.


(
P
/
P
0
)

70 C 75 C 80 C
85 C 90 C Global mod. fit
Heating Foods: I ntegrating quality and safety in thermal processes
broccoli
Brassica oleracea L.
Peroxidase
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45
Time (min)
T
o
t
a
l

P
h
e
n
o
l
i
c

(
m
G
A
E
/

1
0
0
g


70 75 80 85 90 Global mod.fit
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45
Time (min)
M
a
x
.

s
h
e
a
r

f
o
r
c
e

(
N
)



70 75 80 85 90 Global mod. fit
Texture
Quality
Phenolic content
Spectrophotometry
(Unicom Ltd, Cambridge, UK)
Degradao de Qualidade

0
0,2
0,4
0,6
0,8
1
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16
Time (min)
P
O
D

a
c
t
i
.


(
P
/
P
0
)

70 C 75 C 80 C
85 C 90 C Global mod. fit
Heating Foods: I ntegrating quality and safety in thermal processes
broccoli
Brassica oleracea L.
Peroxidase
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45
Time (min)
T
o
t
a
l

P
h
e
n
o
l
i
c

(
m
G
A
E
/

1
0
0
g


70 75 80 85 90 Global mod.fit
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45
Time (min)
M
a
x
.

s
h
e
a
r

f
o
r
c
e

(
N
)



70 75 80 85 90 Global mod. fit
Texture
Quality
kt
e P P

=
0
First order kinetics
Phenolic content
k(T) Arrhenius
Degradao de Qualidade
broccoli
Brassica oleracea L.
Modelling the kinetics of peroxidase inactivation and phenolic
content and texture changes of broccoli during blanching, will allow
convenient design of thermal processes
are recommended to decrease 90% of peroxidase activity.
Texture was the most temperature sensitive parameter. Thus, attention should
be given to texture against other quality parameters for optimizing thermal
processes of broccoli.
Stabilisation of enzymatic deterioration
Minimisation of quality losses
Blanching conditions
6.5 min at 70 C
and
0.4 min at 90 C
Degradao de Qualidade
carrots
Daucus carota L.
Peroxidase
Phenolic content
Firmness
Quality
Colour
Degradao de Qualidade
Heating Foods: I ntegrating quality and safety in thermal processes
carrots
Daucus carota L.

Peroxidase
Phenolic content
Firmness
Quality
Colour
Degradao de Qualidade
Heating Foods: I ntegrating quality and safety in thermal processes
carrots
Daucus carota L.

kt
eq 0
eq
e
C - C
C - C

=
Fractional conversion model
Colour
kt
e
P
P

=
0
First order kinetics
Peroxidase
kt
eq 0
eq
e
Firmness - Firmness
Firmness - Firmness

=
Fractional conversion model
Firmness
First order kinetics
Phenolic content
Quality
kt
e
P
P

=
0
k(T) Arrhenius
k(T) Arrhenius
k(T) Arrhenius
k(T) Arrhenius
Degradao de Qualidade
carrots
Daucus carota L.
Modelling the kinetics of peroxidase inactivation and phenolic
content, colour and texture changes of carrots during blanching,
will allow convenient design of thermal processes
is recommended to decrease 90% of peroxidase activity, ensuring a good
retention of phenolic content (70%). Colour was the most temperature
sensitive parameter. Thus, attention should be given to colour against other
quality parameters for optimizing thermal processes of carrots.
Stabilisation of enzymatic deterioration
Minimisation of quality losses
Blanching conditions 6.0 min at 80 C
Degradao de Qualidade
Processos
Qumicos Fsicos
Processos Alimentares
Fenmenos de Transferncia
calor
massa
momentum
Cinticas de reaco
Propriedades
Modelagem
Funo matemtica
variveis
parmetros
dados
Esquemas de regresso
design experimental
design
validao
controlo
optimizao
Critrio
Objectivos
quality
safety
Modelagem matemtica
segurana
Modelagem matemtica
microbiologia
predictiva
matemtica
microbiologia
Modelagem matemtica
estatstica
microbiologia
predictiva
previso / simulao rapidez
desenvolvimento de processos
eficazes de inactivao
contribuio para segurana
aplicao
Microbiologia Predictiva
Microbiologia Predictiva
comportamento sigmoidal
reflecte a presena de agregados de microrganismos
ou sub populaes mais resistentes temperatura
(ou outro factor adverso)
inactivao
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
0 500 1000 1500 2000
tempo (s)
l
o
g

N
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140
Exemplos
Miller (2004)
52.5 C
Listeria innocua
meio lquido
55 C 57.5 C
60 C
62.5 C
65 C
log N
tempo (min)
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140
Exemplos
52.5 C 55 C 57.5 C
60 C
62.5 C
65 C
log N
tempo (min)
Miller (2004)
Listeria innocua
meio lquido
primrios
Modelos matemticos
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5
Tempo (min)
L
o
g

C
F
U
/
g
cintica
parmetros
primrios
secundrios
Modelos matemticos
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5
Tempo (min)
L
o
g

C
F
U
/
g
parmetros
pH
a
w
temperatura
primrios
secundrios
tercirios - integrao dos modelos anteriores - software
Modelos matemticos
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5
Tempo (min)
L
o
g

C
F
U
/
g
parmetros
pH
a
w
temperatura
primrios
Modelos de inactivao
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
0 500 1000 1500 2000
logN
k
logN
0
logN
res
L
Tempo (s)
empricos
fundamentais
primrios
1 ordem ( ) kt exp N N
0
=
D
t
N log logN
0
=
D tempo de reduo decimal
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
0 2 4 6 8
Time (min)
L
o
g
C
F
U
/g
Modelos de inactivao
primrios
1 ordem ( ) kt exp N N
0
=
D
t
N log logN
0
=
( ) ( ) ( ) t k exp F 1 t k exp F
N
N
2 1 1 1
0
+ =
Cerf
(1977)
Kamau et al.
(1990)
( )
( )
( )
|
|
.
|

\
|
+

+
+
=
t k exp 1
F 1 2
t k exp 1
F 2
log
N
N
log
2
1
1
1
0
D tempo de reduo decimal
F
1
fraco de microrganismos inactivados
k
1
e k
2
constantes cinticas
bifsicos
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
0 2 4 6 8
Time (min)
L
o
g
C
F
U
/g
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
0 1 2 3 4 5 6
Time (min)
L
o
g
C
F
U
/m
l
Modelos de inactivao
primrios
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5
Time (min)
L
o
g
C
F
U
/g
( ) ( )
( ) ( )
( ) ( ) ( )
( ) ( )
|
|
.
|

\
|
+
+
+
+
+
=
L t k exp 1
L k exp 1 F 1
L t k exp 1
L k exp 1 F
log
N
N
log
2
2 1
1
1 1
0
Whiting & Buchanan
(1992)
L atraso
Modelos de inactivao
primrios
Cole et al.
(1993)
( )
|
.
|

\
|

+

+ =
w
t log 4
exp 1
w
N log
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5
Time (min)
L
o
g
C
F
U
/g
( ) ( )
( ) ( )
( ) ( ) ( )
( ) ( )
|
|
.
|

\
|
+
+
+
+
+
=
L t k exp 1
L k exp 1 F 1
L t k exp 1
L k exp 1 F
log
N
N
log
2
2 1
1
1 1
0
Whiting & Buchanan
(1992)
L atraso
Distribuio da
sensibilidade ao calor
da populao dos
microrganismos
Modelos de inactivao
primrios
Baranyi et al.
(1993)
( ) ( )
( )
0
N 0 t N
N t t k
dt
dN
= =
=
funo atraso
funo cauda
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
0 500 1000 1500 2000
tempo (s)
l
o
g

N
Modelos de inactivao
primrios
Baranyi et al.
(1993)
( ) ( )
( )
0
N 0 t N
N t t k
dt
dN
= =
=
funo atraso
funo cauda
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
0 500 1000 1500 2000
tempo (s)
l
o
g

N
( ) ( )
( )
( ) ( ) t k exp 0 Q 1
0 Q 1
t k exp log
N
N
log
max
max
0
+
+
=
|
|
.
|

\
|
Geeraerd et al.
(2000)
( )
Q k
dt
dQ
N Q k k
dt
dN
max
Q max
=
=
Q varivel relacionada com o estado fisiolgico dos microrganismos
Modelos de inactivao
primrios
Gompertz
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
0 500 1000 1500 2000
tempo (s)
l
o
g

N
Bhaduri et al (1991)
Linton et al. (1995, 1996)
Xiong et al. (1999)
( )
|
|
|
|
|
.
|

\
|
|
|
|
|
|
.
|

\
|
+
|
|
.
|

\
|

|
|
.
|

\
|
= 1 t L
N
N
log
e k
exp exp
N
N
log logN logN
res
0 res
0
0
reparameterizao para inactivao com base em Zwitering (1990)
Listeria monocytogenes
Modelos de inactivao
primrios
Gompertz
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
0 500 1000 1500 2000
tempo (s)
l
o
g

N
Bhaduri et al (1991)
Linton et al. (1995, 1996)
Xiong et al. (1999)
( )
|
|
|
|
|
.
|

\
|
|
|
|
|
|
.
|

\
|
+
|
|
.
|

\
|

|
|
.
|

\
|
= 1 t L
N
N
log
e k
exp exp
N
N
log logN logN
res
0 res
0
0
reparameterizao para inactivao com base em Zwitering et al. (1990)
Logstica
Listeria monocytogenes
( ) ( ) L - t k exp 1
c
logN
+
=
c constante
Modelos de inactivao
Exemplos
Gompertz
Data of L. monocytogenes Scott A at 52,56,60,64,68C
(24 hours incubation at 5C in half cream)
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000
time (s)
l
o
g
N
T=52 C
T=56 C
T=60 C
Gil (2002)
Casadei et al. (1998)
Statistica 6.0
Exemplos
Gompertz
Data of L. monocytogenes Scott A at 52,56,60,64,68C
(24 hours incubation at 5C in half cream)
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
0 50 100 150 200 250
time (s)
l
o
g
N
T=64 C
T=68 C
T=60 C
Gil (2002)
Casadei et al. (1998)
Statistica 6.0
Exemplos
Logstica
Data of L. monocytogenes Scott A at 52,56,60,64,68C
(24 hours incubation at 5C in half cream)
T=52 C
T=56 C
T=60 C
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000
time (s)
l
o
g
N
T=52 C
T=56 C
T=60 C
Gil (2002)
Casadei et al. (1998)
Statistica 6.0
Exemplos
Logstica
Data of L. monocytogenes Scott A at 52,56,60,64,68C
(24 hours incubation at 5C in half cream)
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
0 50 100 150 200 250
time (s)
l
o
g
N
T=60 C
T=64 C
T=68 C
Gil (2002)
Casadei et al. (1998)
Statistica 6.0
primrios
secundrios
Modelos matemticos
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5
Tempo (min)
L
o
g

C
F
U
/
g
parmetros
pH
a
w
temperatura
secundrios
Modelos matemticos
Arrhenius
Davey / Arrhenius modificado
Square-root type models
Ratkowsky et al. (1982)
McMeekin et al. (1987)
Adams et al. (1991)
McMeekin et al. (1992)
) T b(T k
min
=
) a (a ) T b(T k
min
w w min
=
) pH (pH ) T b(T k
min min
=
|
.
|

\
|
=
RT
E
- exp k k
a
0
RT
E
lnk lnk
a
0
=
2
W
4 W 3
2
2 1
0
a C a C
T
C
T
C
C lnk + + + + =
) pH (pH ) a (a ) T b(T k
min
min
w w min
=
min valor mnimo para crescimento
|
|
.
|

\
|
|
|
.
|

\
|
=
ref
a
ref
T
1
T
1
R
E
- exp k k
Exemplos
Gompertz k=0.0216 exp(-203.3/R*(1/T-1/333.15))
Logstica k=0.0337 exp(-206.6/R*(1/T-1/333.15))
Data of L. monocytogenes Scott A
(24 hours incubation at 5C in half cream)
0,00
0,05
0,10
0,15
0,20
0,25
320 325 330 335 340 345
Temperature (K)
k

(
1
/
s
)
Ea=28.85 kJ/mol
Ea=27.56 kJ/mol
K
ref
=4.58x10
-3
s
-1
K
ref
=7.31x10
-3
s
-1
Arrhenius
k = f(T)
Gil (2002)
Statistica 6.0
Exemplos
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
320 325 330 335 340 345
Temperature (K)
L

(
s
)
Data of L. monocytogenes Scott A
(24 hours incubation at 5C in half cream)
L=116.3exp(344.1/R*(1/T-1/333.15))
R
2
=0.9998
atraso = f(T)
Ea=7.485 kJ/mol
L
ref
=7.595 s
-1
Gompertz
Gil (2002)
Statistica 6.0
Exemplos
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
9000
10000
320 325 330 335 340 345
Temperature (K)
l

(
s
)
l = 194.5exp(429.7/R*(1/T-1/333.15))
R
2
=1.000
Data of L. monocytogenes Scott A
(24 hours incubation at 5C in half cream)
Ea=3.591 kJ/mol
l
ref
=6.154 s
-1
atraso = f(T)
Logstica
Gil (2002)
Statistica 6.0
Modelos matemticos
maior complexidade !!
Condies variveis de
pH
a
w
temperatura
( )
) tempo ( d
N log d
Modelos matemticos
Gompertz
( )
) tempo ( d
N log d
( ) ( ) ' dt 1 ' t L
N
N
log
) 1 exp( k
exp exp 1 ' t L
N
N
log
) 1 exp( k
exp ) 1 exp( k N log N log
t
0
res
0
res
0
0
(
(
(
(
(

|
|
|
|
|
.
|

\
|
|
|
|
|
|
.
|

\
|
+
|
|
.
|

\
|

|
|
|
|
|
.
|

\
|
+
|
|
.
|

\
|
=
situao dinmica de temperatura
|
|
.
|

\
|
|
|
.
|

\
|
=
ref
a
ref
T
1
T
1
R
E
- exp k k
|
|
.
|

\
|
|
|
.
|

\
|
=
ref
T
1
T
1
b exp a L
tercirios
Modelos de inactivao
softwares
crescimento de microrganismos
previso de tempo de prateleira
inactivao de microrganismos

lacunas
Limitaes
interaces entre microrganismos
diversidade natural das estirpes
estrutura complexa dos alimentos
alimento/microrganismo
modelagem da fase atraso
modelagem da fase cauda
previses reais com condies ambientais variveis
Microbiologia Predictiva
73 EMG_
Abbora
Cenoura
Indstria
Investigao
Distribuio
EMG_
produto
processo
temperatura
atributo
tempo
(Visual Basic Language)
Resposta
Bugdeath - funded by the European Commission under the EC Framework 5;
Quality of Life and Management of Living Resources Programme
Software Program
Bugdeath - funded by the European Commission under the EC Framework 5;
Quality of Life and Management of Living Resources Programme
First screen product/microorganism
Bugdeath - funded by the European Commission under the EC Framework 5;
Quality of Life and Management of Living Resources Programme
Second screen process
Bugdeath - funded by the European Commission under the EC Framework 5;
Quality of Life and Management of Living Resources Programme
Output graphic/temperature
Bugdeath - funded by the European Commission under the EC Framework 5;
Quality of Life and Management of Living Resources Programme
Output graphic/microbial load
Bugdeath - funded by the European Commission under the EC Framework 5;
Quality of Life and Management of Living Resources Programme
Output data table
4 de Maro 2011
Ferramentas Predictivas para a
Qualidade e Segurana Alimentar
Seminrio
UNIVERSIDADE CATLICA PORTUGUESA
Escola Superior de Biotecnologia
Cristina L.M. Silva
Teresa S. Brando
OBRIGADA