The CCA-DRM Nexus

Kendra Gotangco Rosa Perez Manila Observatory

Now that we have climate projections so what?

Understanding climate variability and climate change

is just one step towards adaptation.

We also need to know HOW we may be affected by

these changes in concrete terms, and WHY we are affected in these ways.
Only then can we formulate effective action plans.

Outline
Define the concepts of hazard, vulnerability and risk

and how they interact. Reconcile risk and vulnerability frameworks of the climate change and disaster risk communities. Clarify the CCA-DRM nexus. Introduce the role of vulnerability assessment in adaptation.

Why Knowing the Hazard is Not Enough

Hazard
Hazard refer specifically to physical manifestations of

climatic variability or change, such as droughts, floods, storms, episodes of heavy rainfall, long-term changes in the mean values of climatic variables, potential future shifts in climatic regimes and so on.
Climate hazards may be defined in terms of absolute values

or departures from the mean of variables such as rainfall, temperature, wind speed, or water level, perhaps combined with factors such as speed of onset, duration and spatial extent.
Hazards are also referred to as climate events.

Broad Categories of Hazards

1.

Discrete recurrent hazards, as in the case of transient phenomena such as storms, droughts and extreme rainfall events

2.

Continuous hazards, for example increases in mean temperatures or decreases in mean rainfall occurring over many years or decades
Discrete singular hazards, for example shifts in climatic regimes associated with changes in ocean circulation; the palaeoclimatic record provides many examples of abrupt climate change events associated with the onset of new climatic conditions that prevailed for centuries or millennia

3.

Lets imagine

Risk Hazard Exposure Vulnerability

likelihood of harm, loss, disaster physical impact of disturbance elements affected by hazard
lack of capacity of community to prepare, absorb, recover from hazard

Risk = Hazard x Exposure x Vulnerability Adaptive Capacity

Risk = H x E x V

R E V

R E V

R E V

R E V

R E V

R E V

Two Worlds, Two Languages?

V = f( E, S, AC)
Exposure: nature and degree to which a system is exposed to

significant climatic variations

Sensitivity: degree to which a system is affected, either adversely

or beneficially, by climate variability or change. The effect may be direct (e.g., a change in crop yield in response to a change in the mean, range or variability of temperature) or indirect (e.g., damages caused by an increase in the frequency of coastal flooding due to sea level rise).
Adaptive Capacity: The ability of a system to adjust to climate

change (including climate variability and extremes) to moderate potential damages, to take advantage of opportunities, or to cope with the consequences. IPCC AR4, TAR WG2

Vulnerability
Two categories:

- Social vulnerability - a state that exists within a system before it encounters a hazard event; Determined by factors such as poverty and inequality, marginalisation, food entitlements, access to insurance, and housing quality
- Biophysical vulnerability - in terms of the amount of (potential) damage caused to a system by a particular climate-related event or hazard ; This combined vulnerability is a function of hazard, exposure and sensitivity

IPCC Vulnerability (Biophysical)

Exposure

UN Risk
Hazard Exposure

Sensitivity

Vulnerability

(Inherent Vulnerability)
Adaptive Capacity Adaptive Capacity

climate change mitigation climate change adaptation

disaster mitigation

NOTE: Not a strict correspondence but a rough mapping to facilitate linking of understanding of frameworks.

Figure SPM.1 Illustration of the core concepts of the SREX (IPCC SREX SPM)

Making Connections and Seeking Synergies

IPCC TAR WG1 2.7.1

DRM that helps build resilience contributes to CCA in the long run; however, climate change may push us into new extremes!
Figure SPM.3, IPCC SREX SPM

DRM and CCA: Points of Convergence

Climate Change Adaptation: Reduce risk to: Disaster Risk Management Reduce risk to:

Gradual changes in climatic parameters

Extreme weather events with increased frequency and severity

Climate- and weather-related events

Geophysical events

Ecological events

Sea level rise

Changes in mean temperature

Changes in precipitation patterns

Direct connection

Other events (e.g. technological, terrorism)

Hazards that are associated with extreme events

Hazards that are associated with changing climate normals

Vulnerability / Risk Assessment

Action (Adaptation & Mitigation) Assessment

Prioritize and Build Capacity

Prioritize and Implement Actions

Monitoring and Evaluation

Amount of climate change not mitigated affects frequency and severity of hazards, requiring DRM to consider shifts in climate patterns.

Development activities determine amount of emissions and thus, amount of mitigation needed. Economic growth presents a challenge to mitigation.

Development decisions affect distribution of vulnerability, exposure and disaster losses.

Disaster Risk Management

Disasters stall socioeconomic development and harm livelihoods.

Climate Change Mitigation

Mitigating climate- and weather-related disasters supports long-term climate change adaptation and helps reduce vulnerability.

Long-term adaptation goals and institutional capacitybuilding, especially regarding extreme weather events, must be streamlined into DRM.

Sustainable Community Development

Success/failure of mitigation dictates amount of adaptation needed.

Climate Change Adaptation

Level of development affects communitys vulnerability and capacity to adapt.

Mitigation asserts the need for low-emission development pathways and lifestyle choices.

CCA necessitates adjustments in livelihoods and lifestyle that must be integrated with development pathways.

Gotangco Castillo, 2007; Adapted from Schipper, Lisa and Mark Pelling.

Thank you!