Department of 5umanities and )ocial )ciences!

II0 6anpur

Changing Population of China and its impact on future economy and society of China- A Demographic comparison with India
Ved Prakash, M.Sc. Mathematics, Indian Institute of Technology, Kanpur

Abstract: China had a population of just 69 !"#1!$"9 in the year 196 and a %DP measure of&16 6& 'illion () Dollar in 19$#*+ut today China has a population of 1*, +illion and a %DP of $,&1"-# 'illion () dollar* Population e.plosion in China was an outcome of high economic growth as well as a reason of hea/y profits and surpluses of manufacturing industries in China* 0hrough this paper I Intend to compare the similar relation among other countries li1e 2apan and )weden* Aging population 3rings the a/aila3ility of cheap la3or down and hence impacts the economic performance of countries* I will e.amine fertility and mortality and age structure pattern of population in China and conclude that Aging population is one of the reason of China4s declining economic growth*

Introduction China today is the most populated country in the world and the second strongest economy* China had a small population of 69 !"#1!$"9 in 196 * After the economic reforms of 19$9! Chinese economy was rising and families were prospering which led to high fertility rate in China and China4s population started growing at stri1ing rate 7089 : "*"1& in 19$-;* 0he high num3er of Children in China who 3ecame young and entered la3or force in the years starting from 199- pro/ided a/aila3ility of cheap la3or for industries! especially manufacturing industries* China4s e.port encouraging economic policies led to cheap e.ports for the world created hea/y surpluses for the go/ernment and led China to 3ecome the second largest economy in &--9* I try to answer <uestion through my research! which are as follow: Question 1: How changes in fertility and mortality in China changing Chinas age structure? Question 2: What effect Chinas aging o ulation will ha!e in Chinas social and economic conditions? Question ": What can be done now to tac#le the roblems that are being created by changing age structure in China? Question $: What needs to be done in India to bring down the rate of o ulation growth and im ro!e other demogra hic indicators? 0he reason this study is important is 3ecause a high population is li1e a hidden power! it has 3oth positi/e effects as well as negati/e* If used correctly! then it can lead to de/elopment li1e in case of China and if mishandled can lead to economic and political insta3ility* 'ost of the population of the world is concentrated in de/eloping nations* If mi.ed with proper policies of human de/elopment! then these populations could find a way to high economic growth and 3etter li/es through their changing age structures* 0he outcomes of this study might help other nations in managing human de/elopment policies and also help Chinese %o/ernment to ma1e 3atter policies and support for its own economy and for those who are getting old in China*

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%iterature &e!iew

'he (emogra hic (i!idend: A )ew *ers ecti!e on the +conomic Conse,uences of *o ulation Change by (a!id +- .loom/ (a!id Canning and 0ay ee 1e!illa0his paper discusses /arious theories related to connection 3etween population and economic growth in detail* 'he 2*essimistic3 'heory: *o ulation 4rowth &estricts +conomic 4rowth 0he =pessimistic> theory traces its lineage to 0homas 'althus* ?riting in the 1$9-s! 'althus as1ed whether =the future impro/ement of society> was possi3le in the face of e/er larger populations* 5e reached his famously dismal conclusion: =0a1ing the population of the world at any num3er! a thousand millions! for instance @ the human species would increase in the ratio of 1! &! ! #! 16! ,&! 6 ! 1&#! &"6! "16! etc* and su3sistence as 1! &! ,! ! "! 6! $! #! 9! 1-! etc* In two centuries and a <uarter the population would 3e to the means of su3sistence as "1& to 1-A in three centuries as -96 to 1,! and in two thousand years the difference would 3e incalcula3le>7'althus! 1$9#;* 5e was not the only one who wrote a3out pessimistic /iew of population e.pansion* In year 196#! Paul Bhrlich came with is 3oo1! =Population +om3>! where he declared that =In the 19$-s hundreds of millions of people are going to star/e to death> 7Bhrlich! 196#;* 0his /iew has always remained with the world and resulted in introduction of family planning policies thin1ing that reduced growth of population will result in increased growth of economy* Cne more pessimistic /iew is that e/en if world witness4s period of intensi/e economic growth! it will 3e consumed to sustain the increased population growth* )o the li/ing standards would ne/er impro/e* 'he 25 timistic3 'heory: *o ulation 4rowth Can 6uel +conomic 4rowth 0here are a different set of people who 3elie/e in the great power that population 3rings along* 0he population of the world has dou3led in last - years 3ut along with that a/erage incomes ha/e also increases 3y two- third* As Paul Bhrlich declared! =millions of people> didn4t die* In fact! most of the technical and social inno/ations ha/e come in last ,- years! which is faster than any other period of time* As pressure on natural resources increased! inno/ati/e technologies to o3tain more from fewer resources came up* %reen re/olution is one such e.ample where agriculture produce increased 3y times with just 1D e.tra land utiliEation* 'he 2)eutralist3 'heory: *o ulation 4rowth Has )o 1ignificant +ffect on +conomic 4rowth 'ore recently the neutral /iew towards population growth and economy has come up saying that population has /ery insignificant effect on economic growth* Adam )mith! in his 3oo1
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analyEed that growth is decided 3y distri3ution of la3or and other factors* Countries where s1ills of wor1er were directed towards special di/ision of wor1 de/eloped faster than other* Cther factors li1e in/estment in human capital! openness to trade! economic policies played much more important role in economic growth* Cn carrying out regression 3etween economic growth rate and population growth rate! /ery small dependency was found 7Fational 9esearch Council! 19#6;*

*o ulation Aging and +conomic 4rowth in China by 0udith .anister/ (a!id +- .loom/ and %arry &osenberg 'his a er discusses the possi3le effect of China4s aging pro3lem on economic growth and social structure* ?ith reducing fertility rate and increasing life e.pectancy! the population of the world is aging on an a/erage* 'ore than & 3illion people will 3e aged 7age 6- or more; 3y &-"-* 8or China! this is a serious issue since 3y &-"-! ,-D of its population will 3e aged* Its dependency ratio 7num3er of wor1ing age group populationG num3er of young and old population; is at its pea1 3ut will decline sharply in coming years* Decrease in la3or force will ma1e it hard for China to sustain the le/el of %DP growth that it maintains right now* Also! 3ecause of China4s one child policy! that single child finds it tough to ta1e care of two parents and two grandparents* 0here is suddenly an increase in num3er of a3andoned parents and grandparents* %o/ernment of China and other such countries will soon ha/e to ma1e changes in the employment policies and social arrangements so as to accommodate the changing age structure* )e/eral piece of information from this paper are later used in this paper*

'he (emogra hic 'ransition: Causes and Conse,uences by 5ded 4alor 0his paper discusses the cause and conse<uence of demographic transition* 8irst! the decline in population growth reduced the dilution of the growing stoc1s of capital and infrastructure! increasing the amount of resources per capita* )econd! the reduction in fertility rates permitted the reallocation of resources from the <uantity of children toward their <uality! enhancing human capital formation and la3or producti/ity* 0hird! the decline in fertility rates affected the age distri3ution of the population! temporarily increasing the fraction of the la3or force in the population and thus mechanically increasing producti/ity per capita* Declining fertility rates and mortality rate ha/e caused an increase in population 3ut at the same time ha/e increased the la3or force which was directed towards de/elopment programs*

1ources of (ata and Quality

'ost of the data has 3een downloaded from ?orld +an1 ?e3site 7http:GGdata3an1*world3an1*org; which is one of the most relia3le sources of data on ?orld De/elopment Indicators 7?DI; and Bconomic Indicators*

)ome other we3sites that were used are http:GGwww*inde.mundi*com data*un*org www.chinatoday.com/data/china.population.htm censusindia*go/*in www*demographie*netGdemographicdata )ome more information has 3een used from ?i1ipedia pages which is again /ery relia3le* )ome other information was a/aila3le on %o/ernment we3sites of concerned countries* http:GGwww*india*go/*inG 7Indian %o/ernment ?e3site; http:GGenglish*go/*cnG 7Chinese %o/ernment ?e3site; http:GGwww*stats*go/*cnGenglishGinde.*htm 7)tatistic a3out China; http:GGwww*india*go/*inGcitiEen*php 7)tatistics a3out India; 'ost of the data is deri/ed from census and sur/eys conducted 3y Fational go/ernments and (F agencies* All these results are e.posed to the error of census and sur/eys* Although in de/eloped countries these errors are smaller than countries li1e China and India where a large part of population is not reported and data are often adjusted and changed for political purposes* In China! data for 0i3etan people is not accounted and in India people from Bastern India are often underreported* Cther reason as to why census data are not 1--D correct is: 0here are many reasons why people might not get counted in the Census! including: pri/acy concerns! homelessness! low literacy le/els and not enough time to fill out the forms*

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Analysis
A brief introduction to China It is the worldHs most populous country! with a population of o/er 1*, 3illion* Co/ering appro.imately 9*6 million s<uare 1ilometers! the country is the worldHs second-largest country 3y land area! and the third- or fourth-largest 3y total area! depending on the definition of total area* )ince the introduction of economic reforms in 19$#! China has 3ecome the worldHs fastest-growing major economy* As of &-1&! it is the worldHs second-largest economy! after the (nited )tates! 3y 3oth nominal %DP and purchasing power parity 7PPP;! and is also the worldHs largest e.porter and second-largest importer of goods* *o ulation and *ro7ections
1#----16----1 ----1&----1-----#----6--------&----19"- 196- 19$- 19#- 199- &--- &-1- &-&- &-,- &- - &-"China India

Population 0rends in India and China China and India ha/e followed similar trends in almost all demographic indicators! they only differ in magnitude* China has 3een the most populous country in the world from old days* +ut according to (F estimates India will o/erta1e China as the most populous country 3y year &-,-* China4s population is su3jected to grow till year &-&- and then due to reduced fertility rate and increased mortality rate the net population growth rate will 3ecome negati/e and the population will 3egin to decrease* In India! although fertility rate has come down 3ut still the net population growth rate is positi/e and will 3e so for many decades* 0he reason of such population e.plosion are /ery well e.plained 3y *o ulation (emogra hic 'heory/ which ta1es in account changing patterns of fertility! mortality and life e.pectancy*

(emogra hic 'ransition 'heory Demographers 7e*g*! 8ran1 Fotestein! 6ingsley Da/is! Ansley Coale; characteriEed these three groups of countries! with their distincti/e 3irth rates and death rates! with three different stages of demographic change! 1nown as =demographic transition> which e/ery society has to pass through: 1* 0he stage of high fertility and high mortality &* 0he stage of declining mortality and high or medium fertility ,* 0he stage of low fertility and low mortality The graphs for demographic transition for India and China are given in forthcoming analysis.

6ertility 'rends +oth China and India ha/e witnessed reduction in fertility rate! especially China for which fertility rates came down from 6*11 to 1*"6 in &-1- and are projected to increase a 3it to 1*#1 3y the year &-"-* Although India is witnessing slow changes in fertility rate! we are still o/er the replacement le/el 7&*1;*
$ 6 "

China 7089; , & 1 19"19"" 196196" 19$19$" 19#19#" 199199" &--&--" &-1&-1" &-&&-&" &-,&-," &- &- " &-"India

0otal 8ertility 0rends in India and China In the late 19$-s and early 19#-s! the go/ernment ad/ocated a Ilater! longer! fewerI lifestyle! encouraging people to marry later! ha/e wide gaps 3etween children and fewer children o/erall* It also instated the contro/ersial one-child policy* 0his policy was introduced in 19$# and initially applied to first-3orn children from 19$9* It was created 3y the Chinese go/ernment to alle/iate social! economic! and en/ironmental pro3lems
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in China! and authorities claim that the policy has pre/ented more than &"- million 3irths 3etween 19#- and &---! and -- million 3irths from a3out 19$9 to &-11* 0hese were attempts to cur3 population growth in a 3id to help moderniEe the economy* 0he results of this policy are well reflected in the drop of 089 in China from J6 in 19$- to J , in years 19#-* In India also se/eral family planning missions were introduced 3ut none of them were implemented effecti/ely and that4s why fertility in India is still <uite high* &easons for declining 6ertility 1* Bducation le/els ha/e increased significantly after the 19#-4s in 3oth the countries* Increased education la3or has ena3led women and families to ma1e 3etter decision for ha/ing children* &* 8amily Planning 'issions! +oth India and China initiated family planning mission in the pea1 years of their population growth* In India! Fational 8amily ?elfare Program was launched in 19"1A (r3an 8amily ?elfare )chemes were introduced in year 19#, and 9eproducti/e and Child 5ealth Program in 199$ Kindia*go/*inL* All these schemes ha/e definitely 3rought awareness among Indian )ociety to reduce the num3er of child 3earing* In China! on the other hand the major policy decision in the name of 8amily planning schemes! was Cne Child Policy which officially restricts married! ur3an couples to ha/ing only one child! while allowing e.emptions for se/eral cases! including twins! rural couples! ethnic minorities! and parents without any si3lings themsel/es*K ++C: China steps up Ione-child policyIL* Although this policy has much faced criticism 3ut has 3rought down fertility to satisfactory le/els* KConse<uences of the one-child policy Perils of motherhoodL ,* ?ith increased awareness in masses a3out use of contracepti/es ha/e lowered 3irth rate* In India! many new projects were started regarding the same 3ut people in India still hesitate to tal1 a3out contracepti/es* 0he go/ernment of China also made sure that contracepti/es are a/aila3le to masses in all rural and ur3an localities* * A/aila3ility of economic opportunities in China has also pro/ided an incenti/e to Chinese women to delay pregnancy*

%ife +8 ectancy and 9ortality Mife e.pectancy is one major important demographic indicator which shows the le/el of growth and a/aila3ility of medical infrastructure* China had rapid increases in life e.pectancy from 196" to 19#- and then it increased smoothly* 8or India also life e.pectancy 3ut has always remained lower than China 3ut the gape is projected to reduce towards the year &-"-* Increased life e.pectancy leads to increase in num3er of old people in the country and thus they 3ecome a lia3ility to the nation instead of 3eing an asset*
9#$6",19"19"" 196196" 19$19$" 19#19#" 199199" &--&--" &-1&-1" &-&&-&" &-,&-," &- &- " &-"China7Mife e.pectancy; India

Mife B.pectancy 0rends! China and India 'ortality has declined all o/er the after the )econd ?orld ?ar! li1e other factors China impro/ed its death rate far more faster than India* 0he impro/ement that India achie/ed in 6years! China achie/ed the same in only &" years* In future China death rate is projected to go high 3ecause of death of old age population* 5igh death rate will also 3ecome a reason of negati/e population growth rate in China in future*
,&" &1" 1" 19"19"" 196196" 19$19$" 19#19#" 199199" &--&--" &-1&-1" &-&&-&" &-,&-," &- &- " &-"China7Crude Death 9ate; India

Death 9ate 0rends! China and Indi

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&easons for decreased 9ortality and Increased %ife +8 ectancy 1* A/aila3ility of 3etter health care facilities has impro/ed life e.pectancies in 3oth countries* According to an article 3y 0ania +renigan in 0he %uardian around 9$D women in China ga/e 3irth in hospitals* In India these statistics are still are still /ery low! $D* &* Proper 5ealth security plans in China ha/e helped China to increase life e.pectancy* ?ith higher income more people in China ha/e access to hospital ser/ices* In India! health facilities are still away from a large segment of old people* ,* Another major achie/ement was that 3oth countries were a3le to 3ring up the a/erage age at first marriage* ?hen a/erage age at marriage goes up! the age at first child goes up automatically* 0his ena3led women to ha/e a 1id only when she was physically ready for it* 0his helped to reduce infant mortality rate as well as maternal mortality rate* * Cld people who are not /ery rich are also treated at good local hospitals* Aging and (e endency China has a /ery low death rate and high e.pectancy rate and this is causing the num3er of old people in the increase to threatening le/el* 0otal population of age 6" and a3o/e will cross 6" million 3y the year &-"- which will account for &6 D of total national population* China4s aging population will lead to se/eral economic and social pro3lems in the future which will 3e discussed later in this paper*

Age )tructure China! &-1- )ource: ++C*com

Age )tructure China! &-"- )ource: ++C*com

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China is witnessing its least dependency ratio during current years* It will rise 3ac1 to the le/els of 6" as it was in 19$"* 5igh dependency ratio can 3e /ery threatening in a country li1e China! 3ecause the 3ac13one of China4s economy is its /ast la3or force! with a decrease in la3or force China is doomed to speculate a fall in its economic growth* 0he ageing process in China has two distinguishing features* 8irst! it has happened at a much faster rate than in other countries* According to (F figures! the ratio of those aged 6- and o/er across the world rose 3y , percentage points in the 6- years from 19"- to &-1-! while in China it increased 3y ,*# percentage points in just the 1- years from &--- to &-1-* )econdly! China is one of a few countries in the world in which the population has aged 3efore 3ecoming rich or e/en moderately rich* 0he (F considers a country to 3e ageing when $D of its population is aged 6" or o/er - the threshold used to 3e 1-D of a population 3eing 6- years old or o/er*
9#$6",&119"19"" 196196" 19$19$" 19#19#" 199199" &--&--" &-1&-1" &-&&-&" &-,&-," &- &- " &-"China70otal dependancy 9atio; India

Changing Dependencies ratio in China and India

+ffects and Conse,uences of Aging 1* Noung population of China made a major contri3ution to rapid economic growth of China in a way that it pro/ided a3undant and cheap la3or for Chinese industries* ?ith aging population! industries will find it hard to find cheap la3or for them and hence their profits are going to go down* It4s almost impossi3le for China to maintain its current growth rate in future*

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&* In case of India! it is still a /ery young country with /ast educated youth* India4s has its least dependency ration for years to come* In India future economic growth rate will 3e decided 3y the policy decisions that go/ernment ta1e* ,* ?ith aging spreading fast in China! the institution of family is also 3rea1ing down KAgeing China: Changes and challenges! ++CL* Nouth of that country is finding it hard to pro/ide for two parents and two grandparents* * 0he num3er of a3andoned old people has increased significantly in China and along with that the num3er of old age houses has increased* +ut they are still not enough to contain all the elderly population* (emogra hic 'ransition 'heory in China and India +oth countries were passing through the high fertility and high mortality trends! then 3oth mortality and fertility started to decline and China and India reached the second stage of demographic transition* Currently 3oth countries are in stage three where fertility as well as mortality is /ery low 3ut the life e.pectancy is <uite high*
" ," ,&" &1" 1" 19"- 196- 19$- 19#- 199- &--- &-1- &-&- &-,- &- 16----1 ----1&----1-----#----6--------&----China7C+9; China7Crude Death 9ate; China Population

Demography 0rends in China- 19"--&-"",1-----&119"19"" 196196" 19$19$" 19#19#" 199199" &--&--" &-1&-1" &-&&-&" &-,&-," &- &- " "----&-----1"----India7C+9; India India 7;

Demography 0rends in India 19"--&-"1&

Conclusion and (iscussion

'any scholars around the world ha/e 3een carrying out studies of comparison 3etween India and China for past &- years or so* )ome of the most famous studies are =0he demography of China and India-&-,-> 3y 'ichael 2* ?hite and =A 3rief comparison 3etween India and china as emerging economy in Asia>! 3y Dr*8eisal 'ir1aEehi 9igi* +oth India and other nations of de/eloping world ha/e much to learn from China and its policies* 0he main idea that comes out this paper is that 3oth countries made efforts to 3ring down population growth! fertility! mortality etc* 3ut what made difference is the fact that how efficiently these planning were implemented and e.ecuted* 5ealth care plans failed in India for a /ariety of reasons such as poor infrastructure! failing to pro/ide pri/ate sector important role in health care and more recently the issue of corruption K5ealth care in India - /ision &-&-! 9 )rini/isanL* Cther factors that contri3ute to Chinese success are education and go/ernment policies* India was too late to 3ring economic reforms and that too for a short period of time* 'ost of the major reforms! related to health! education or other important issue too1 so many months and years in some cases! that their importance diminished 3y the time they were passed* Indian go/ernment4s failure in pro/iding proper infrastructure for health care facilities made it impossi3le for health reforms to reach local masses* Fum3er of physician per 1--- person is just *6 in India while it is 1*"1 for China K?orld 5ealth )tatistics! &-11L* Cnly the rich in India ha/e access to high tech medical care while poor still find it hard to ta1e gains from 3asic health care* Bducations also help a lot to tac1le the issues of fertility and population growth* Bducation is one of the most important in/estments that a go/ernment has to ma1e in de/eloping the human resources* Bducated people are more li1ely to contri3ute to income generationA they ta1e 3etter decision for their family and social life* Miteracy rate in India is $ D as compared to 99D in China* Bspecially for women! literacy rate is $9D in China while it is mere 6 D in India K?orld +an1! De/elopment IndicatorsL* )imilar 1ind of analysis and results are e.hi3ited 3y many other studies such as =5ealth care in India - Oision &-&-! Issues and prospects> 3y 9* )rini/isan! =China and India> 3y Fational Defense 9esearch Institute and =Assessing the impact of fertility change and demographic masculiniEation on population structures in China and India> 3y Christophe P %uilmoto*

1,

0he reason I carried out this study as to show how these two giant countries are mo/ing in the same path 3ut with great differences in the rate of change* ?hat I e.pect from readers is to ta1e the message that the solution lies within our hand* It4s onto our policy ma1ers that how they tac1le this pro3lem and how they can implement those policies efficiently*

&ecommendation
hat can !e done in India" 1* A lot of policies and programs ha/e 3een declared and initiated in India for family planning! education! girl education! gender e<uality and female employment! 3ut most of them could not deli/er the desired result* Cur policy ma1ers need to design a mechanism for trac1ing the performance of any scheme* &* 0here is a need to redirect the 3udget allocation for many such schemes to areas on a 3asis of a sur/ey conducted without political influence* ,* 'ost of the money of such programs is consumed 3y corrupt 3ureaucracy and middle man K(ttar Pradesh F95' scam! http:GGen*wi1ipedia*orgGwi1iG(ttarQPradeshQF95'QscamL* In (ttar Pradesh! more than Cne 0rillion IF9 was lost in corruption* 0he amount of medical care facilities that could ha/e 3een achie/ed 3y that money is unimagina3le* %o/ernment need to ensure that such cases are dealt with and they ne/er occur again in India* * Pro/iding an efficient infrastructure for medical infrastructure should 3e go/ernment prime o3jecti/e* Achie/ing low mortality rates and high life e.pectancy such as of China will not 3e possi3le with such shortage of doctors! hospitals! 3eds and medical colleges* "* B/en if there is no corruption! no shortcoming on 3ehalf of go/ernment in the implementation of these programs! they still might pro/e to 3e ineffecti/e if people don4t 1now a3out them* 'ost of the Indian Population! especially rural population doesn4t 1now a3out many 5ealth programs that are run for them* Proper information a3out all facilities should reach /illages through the medium of tele/ision and radios* 6* Bducation! one of the 3uilding 3loc1s of human resource should 3e gi/en importance* 0he law of 9ight to Bducation should 3e implemented and the loopholes of the law should 3e remo/ed* )mall shows and seminars should 3e organiEed in /illages to persuade parents to send their daughters to school so that in their future they can 3ecome independent and ha/e e<ual say in decision ma1ing* $* Increasing employment opportunities through small go/ernment programs will ma1e women 3usy with their jo3s and they will delay marriage and pregnancy* #* %o/ernment should continue their mission to 3ring awareness a3out use contraception among the masses*

hat can !e done in China" 1* 8or China! situation is completely different* 0heir almost all the policies are implemented efficiently* Bducation le/el is close to 1--D and female participation in la3or force is <uite high* &* 0he pro3lem that China needs to sol/e is their aging population! se. ratio at 3irth and marriage s<ueeEe KDamian %rammaticasL* ,* China4s fast economic growth is 3ecause of its e.port and for that the cheap la3or was a chief reason* +ut now this la3or is reducing* China4s needs to do economic restructuring to o/ercome the pro3lem of lac1 of la3or* * Mi1e India! China will also ha/e to in/est in I0 sectors where cheap la3or is not such an important factor* "* China is also going through a social change where young people are a3andoning their parents and grandparents 3ecause of their financial ina3ility to pro/ide for the needs of four e.tra people* China needs to increase the num3er of old age shelters and ha/e to ma1e ade<uate health care arrangements for these poor old people* 6* After the massacre of 19#9! the only reason of sta3ility of Chinese Communist Party is the fast economic growth* If this goes down then the legitimacy of this go/ernment will also 3e <uestioned* Chinese go/ernment needs to 3e ready for such a situation* $* 0he last 3ut not the least! China needs to thin1 a3out whether it should continue with Cne child policy or not* +ecause of Cne child policy! most couples a3ort their child if it is a girl! so the 3irth ratio at 3irth is highly in fa/or of 3oys* 0his is something a nation can ta1e a century to o/ercome* 0he pro3lem of marriage s<ueeEe needs to 3e dealt with* #* 8or many years! China has 1ept its doors closed for immigrants! may 3e its time for Chinese go/ernment to allow entry of young professionals! researcher and academicians in China*

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&eferences
1* 5istorical %DP of the PeopleHs 9epu3lic of China http:GGen*wi1ipedia*orgGwi1iG5istoricalQ%DPQofQtheQPeopleHsQ9epu3licQofQChina &* 0he Demographic 0ransition: Causes and Conse<uences 3y Cded %alor http:GGwww*n3er*orgGpapersGw1$-"$*pdfRnewQwindow:1 ,* Population Aging and Bconomic %rowth in China 3y 2udith +anister! Da/id B* +loom! and Marry 9osen3erg * 0he Demographic Di/idend: A Few Perspecti/e on the Bconomic Conse<uences of Population Change 3y Da/id B* +loom! Da/id Canning and 2aypee )e/illa*
"* http:GGwww*rand*orgGcontentGdamGrandGpu3sGresearchQ3riefsG&-11G9AFDQ9+9"9#*pdf 6* http:GGwww*demographie*netGguilmotoGpdfGIPA9&*pdf $* http:GGwww*33c*co*u1GnewsGworld-asia-196,-11-

#* China4s economic growth and la3or employment S structural change! institutional e/olution and policy issues 3y Dic Mo! 9enmin (ni/ersity of China and )CA)! (ni/ersity of Mondon 9* A study on )ocio- economic determinants 3ehind infant mortality and maternal mortality http:GGplanningcommission*nic*inGreportsGsereportGserGstdyQimmm*pdf 1-* A 3rief comparison 3etween India and china as emerging economy in Asia 3y Dr*8eisal 'ir1aEehi 9igi!P5*D in Bconomics from uni/ersity of Pune 11* Assessing the impact of fertility change and demographic masculiniEation on population structures in China and India* Century-long forecasts with and without high se. ratios at 3irth 3y Christophe P %uilmoto 1&* (ttar Pradesh F95' scam! http:GGen*wi1ipedia*orgGwi1iG(ttarQPradeshQF95'Qscam 1,* 5ealth care in India - /ision &-&-! 9 )rini/isan

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