risk management cycle; risk mitigation or response because if effective mitigation plans are judge the attributes of every

risk. The attributes were two in number and are: the frequency of occurrence, represented by r!, and the degree of impact, represented by "m!. #hen $%&&'( and )aftery, $'**+( represent this using the equation below: R = Fr x Im equation 4.1 ,here; R - )isk Fr - requency of occurrence of risk; and Im - .egree of impact of risk; /ll the attributes above will be measured numerically and the respondents will make their judgments by using the five level scale of judgment which uses very low, low, medium, high and very high for representing both the degree of impact and frequency of occurrence of risks. The model is applied by converting the opinion judgment scale into numerical scales. This research will apply values as suggested by 01234 $%&&&(, which assigns a value of &.' to very low! and values of &.5, &.6, &.7 and &.* to low!, medium!, high!, and very high! respectively. .ata will be collected and the weightings of all the risks from each respondent!s assessment are called the risk score; and will be calculated using the formula Thuyet, et al. $%&&7(: Rij = Frij x Imij equation 4.2 ,here; Rij - )isk #core Frij - requency of occurrence for risk i assessed by respondent j Imij - .egree of impact for risk i assessed by respondent j /n average score for each risk is determined by calculating the average scores from all the respondents. This is called the risk8inde9 score!, which is used for ranking the risks. The risk8inde9 score is then calculated with the following formula:

RI =
i

R
j =1

:::::::::::::: equation 4.3

,here;

RI i- )isk8inde9 score for risk i Rij - )isk score assessed by respondent j for risk i N - ;umber of respondents

The risk ranking will be done by ordering the risks in increasing numerical order of $', %, 5::.(, with the major risk having the value of '!, the second major risk having the value of %! and so on. 4.1.3 Graphical Illustrations:

0ictorial and graphical presentations will be used as another technique for conveying the results and findings of the research in a non8verbal manner. <raphs and charts will be used as forms of graphical illustration in the research because of their advantage of making research results easy to interpret. 4.2 Questionnaire survey response:

/ sum of forty $+&( questionnaires were sent out to four different types of company groups that speciali=es both in upstream and downstream activities in oil and gas projects in ;igeria as follows: '& questionnaires to public sector companies, '& questionnaires to private $multinational( companies and %& to private $indigenous( companies. %& questionnaires were distributed to the private indigenous companies because there are more companies in this category than any other category. 3ut of +& questionnaires that were distributed, 5& questionnaires were returned. Table +8' shows the details of the distribution and rate of questionnaire responses as presented below:

a!le 4"1: #istri!ution o$ survey responses

S/No 1 2 3 Company type Public sector Private( Multinational) Private (Indigenous) Nos of questionnaires Distributed Return 10 10 20 5 7 18 Return rate (%) 50 70 90

Total

40

30

75

The table above shows that a 76> return rate was recorded in the questionnaire survey. The rate is high as compared to the lower response of ?&> $;guyen, et al., %&&7( as reali=ed in a related study. The table above also shows the percentage distribution of respondents in the survey as follows: 0ublic sector companies 6&>; 0rivate $1ultinational( companies 7&> and 0rivate $indigenous( companies *&>. 4.3 %ection 1: General&!ac'(roun) in$ormation

"n line with the objectives of the research, the first section of the questionnaire will analy=e the effects of the background and general information of the respondents in the survey. This establishes a clear insight into the activities of the companies answering the survey questions with respect to their staff e9perience and number, company history and their general perception to types of risks and the risk effects on risk management as practiced in oil and gas projects in ;igeria. 4.3.1 Respon)ent*s +o! position:

"n distributing the questionnaires, a deliberate effort was made to incorporate more managers in the research due to the fact that managers will have a more comprehensive knowledge about risks and risk management practices in numerous aspects of oil and gas projects. rom the survey, it was found that +?.?7> $'+( of the respondents were managers which comprised of operations, project and marketing managers; while 65.55> $'?( were employees which comprised of project, safety and discipline engineers. The figure below shows their distribution:

a!le 4"2: Results o$ respon)ents* +o! position

S/No 1 2 3 4 5 ' Respondents job position Project anagers anagers Frequency 10 1 2 7 2 7 ercenta!e (%) 35 3 7 24 7 24

!"eration #a$et%

anagers

Project &ngineers #a$et% &ngineers (isci"line &ngineers

Fi(ure 4"1: #istri!ution o$ respon)ents* +o! position

(isci"line &ngineers 24) Project anagers 35)

#a$et% &ngineers 7)

Project &ngineers 24)

!"eration anagers 3) #a$et% anagers 7)

The above table and chart $Table +8% and

igure +8'( shows that the percentage

distributions of the respondents! job position in the survey are as follows: 56> $'&( are 0roject managers; 5> $'( are 3peration managers, 7> $%( are #afety managers, %+> $7( are 0roject engineers, and %+> $7( are .iscipline engineers. rom obtained results, it can be

inferred that the respondents to the questionnaire are individuals who make significant contributions to the risk management practices in ;igerian oil and gas projects. 4.3.2 ,or'in( experience:

a!le 4"3: Results o$ respon)ents* years o$ -or'in( experience

S/No 1 2 3 "ears of #or$in! e%perience 0 to 5 %ears ' to 10 %ears *bove 10 %ears Frequency 4 10 1' ercenta!e (%) 13 33 54

Fi(ure 4"2: #istri!ution o$ respon)ents* years o$ -or'in( experience

0 to 5 %ears 13) *bove 10 %ears 54)

' to 10 %ears 33)

The above table and chart $Table +85 and

igure +8%( shows that the percentage

distributions of the respondents! years of working e9perience in the survey are as follows: '5> $+( have & to 6 years working e9perience; 55> $'&( have ? to '& years working e9perience; and 6+> $'?( have above '& years working e9perience. rom the obtained results, it implies that risk management practices in ;igerian oil and gas sector involves people who have high industry e9perience.

4.3.3

.)ucational /uali$ication:

The questionnaire results obtained with respect to educational qualification show that each of the respondents possessed at least a form of higher educational qualification $12/, 1sc, 2sc and 2eng(. This implies that the decision makers who are involved in carrying out risk management practices in ;igerian oil and gas projects are educated. 4.3.4 Respon)ents a(e (roup:

a!le 4"4: Results o$ respon)ents* a(e (roup

S/No 1 2 3 4 5 ' Respondents a!e !roup 25 to 30 +ears 31 to 35 +ears 3' to 40 +ears 41 to 45 +ears 4' to 50 +ears ,50 +ears Frequency 2 12 3 7 5 1 ercenta!e (%) 7 40 10 23 17 3

Fi(ure 4"3: #istri!ution o$ respon)ents* a(e (roup

,50 +ears 3) 4' to 50 +ears 17)

25 to 30 +ears 7)

31 to 35 +ears 40) 41 to 45 +ears 23)

3' to 40 +ears 10)

The above table and chart $Table +8+ and

igure +85( shows that the percentage

distributions of the respondents! age groups in the survey are as follows: 7> $%( are %6 to 5& years; +&> $'%( are 5' to 56 years; '&> $5( are 5? to +& years; %5> $7( are +' to +6 years; '7> $6( are +? to 6& years; and 5> $'( are above 6& years. rom the obtained results, it was noticed that the age group with the highest frequency $modal age group( were between 5' to 56 years of age. /lso, all the respondents from +' years and above were managers. "t can be inferred that a considerable number of managers are actively involved in risk management practices in ;igerian oil and gas industry. 4.3.0 ypes o$ pro+ects execute) !y respon)ents:

The ;igerian oil and gas industry was identified from e9tant literature to be divided into two sectors and as indicated in the questionnaire; respondents were requested to select the sector where they carry out their project activities. Table +86 shows the survey results.

a!le 4"0: Results o$ pro+ect types execute) !y respon)ents

S/No 1 2 3 Type of projects e%ecuted by respondents !nl% u"strea !nl% do-nstrea .ot/ Frequency 0 3 27 ercenta!e (%) 0 10 90

Fi(ure 4"4: #istri!ution o$ pro+ect types execute) !y respon)ents

.ot/ 90)

!nl% do- nstrea 10)

!nl% u"strea 0)

The above table and chart $Table +86 and

igure +8+( shows that the percentage

distributions of the respondents! with respect to the oil and gas sector; where they carry out their projects activities are as follows: 5> $'&( carry out only downstream project activities; *&> $%7( carry out both upstream and downstream project activities; and none of the companies carry out only upstream activities. rom the obtained results, it was noticed that only respondents! working with companies that engage in retail and marketing of petroleum products carryout only downstream project activities while others $design@construction, inspection, and drilling@e9ploration( companies; carry out their project activities in both sectors which may be offshore or onshore. "t can be inferred that risk management practices carried out on most of the projects in both the upstream and downstream sectors of ;igerian oil and gas industry. 4.3.1 %ervices ren)ere) !y or(ani2ations:

"n the questionnaire survey; respondents were requested to select the type of projects services that their individual organi=ations where they carry out their project activities; render in ;igerian oil and gas industry. The table below shows the survey results.

a!le 4"1: Results o$ pro+ect services ren)ere) !y respon)ents

S/No 1 2 3 4 Type of projects ser&ices rendered by respondents Ins"ection (esign0construction 1etail0 ar2eting (rilling0e3"loration Frequency 4 18 4 4 ercenta!e (%) 13 '1 13 13

Fi(ure 4"0: #istri!ution o$ pro+ect services ren)ere) !y respon)ents

13) 13) 13) Ins"ection (esign0construction 1etail0 ar2eting (rilling0e3"loration '1)

The above table and chart $Table +8? and

igure +86( shows that the percentage

distributions of the respondents! with respect to the services that their individual organi=ations render in ;igerian oil and gas industry are as follows: '5> $+( are involved in inspection activities; ?'> $'A( are involved in design and construction activities; '5> $+( are involved in retail and marketing activities; and '5> $+( are involved in drilling and e9ploration activities. rom the obtained results and from in8depth telephone interviews, it was gathered that; ;igerian government owned public sector companies like .0), were involved in inspecting and regulating the way the other companies $design@construction, inspection, and drilling@e9ploration( carry out risk management practices in both upstream and downstream oil and gas projects. This they do by giving them guidelines on the risk assessment methodology and when to use them on projects. $.0), %&&?( The retail and marketing companies were private indigenous companies that carry out their project activities only in the downstream sector. 1ost of the drilling and e9ploration companies were private multinationals that have joint ventures with ;;0B $the owner of and ;igerian government representative; in all oil and gas projects(. $;;0B, %&&A( This is because of the inability of the private indigenous companies! lack of finance and e9pertise to carry out *

these high technology and huge capital intensive projects. ?'> distribution was comprised of mostly the private indigenous companies that carry out most design and construction projects which were sublets from the multinational companies. This large percentage is because of the new ;igerian Cocal content policy to carry out 7&> of all design and construction projects in the oil and gas sector by the year %&'&. $;wachukwu, %&&A( This boosted the springing up of new design and construction companies. ,ith respect to the objectives of the research, it can be inferred that risk management practices carried out by the various companies in ;igerian oil and gas projects are regulated and monitored under strict guidelines by ;igerian government bodies responsible for ensuring that project risks are effectively managed and responded to; at the various key stages of oil and gas projects. 4.3.1 3r(ani2ations years o$ experience:

a!le 4"4: Results o$ respon)ents* or(ani2ations years o$ experience

S/No 1 2 3 3 Respondents or!ani'ations years of e%perience 4ess t/an 5%rs 5 to 10%rs 10 to 20%rs 20%rs and above Frequency 0 2 ' 22 ercenta!e (%) 0 7 20 73

Fi(ure 4"1: #istri!ution o$ respon)ents* or(ani2ations years o$ experience

73) 4ess t/an 5%rs 5 to 10%rs 10 to 20%rs 20) 7) 0) 20%rs and above

The above table and chart $Table +87 and

igure +8?( shows that the percentage

distributions of the respondents! individual organi=ations years of e9perience in ;igerian oil and gas industry are as follows: 7> $%( have 6 to '& years; %&> $?( have '& to %& years; '&

and 75> have above %& years of e9perience. Two companies involved in design and construction were in the 6 to '& years of e9perience range. The rest had above '& years e9perience in the ;igerian oil and gas industry. ,ith respect to the organi=ations that participated in the research survey, it can be seen that most of the companies have been operating in the oil and gas sector for long. Thus, it can be inferred that most of the organi=ations that partook in the survey are very e9perienced in oil and gas projects. 4.3.4 .mployee si2e:

a!le 4"5: Results o$ respon)ents* or(ani2ation*s employee si2e

S/No 1 2 3 4 5 Respondents or!ani'ation(s employee si'e 1 to 100 100 to 250 250 to 1000 1000 to 5000 *bove 5000 Frequency 0 0 4 18 8 ercenta!e (%) 0 0 13 '0 27

Fi(ure 4"4: #istri!ution o$ respon)ents* or(ani2ation*s employee si2e

*bove 5000 27)

250 to 1000 13)

1000 to 5000 '0)

The above table and chart $Table +8A and

igure +87( shows that the percentage

distributions of the respondents! individual organi=ations employee si=e are as follows: '5> $+( have %6& to '&&& employees; ?&> $'A( have '&&& to 6&&& employees; and %7> have above 6&&& employees. 1edium si=ed design and construction companies were the respondents in the third category $%6& to '&&&( employees; while large si=ed indigenous multinationals, public sector government organi=ations and retail and marketing companies ''

had from '&&& to 6&&&D employees. This is because these large si=ed organi=ations have been in e9istence for many years and carry out oil and gas projects in their subsidiaries which are spread around the nation. Thus, it can be inferred that since the large si=ed organi=ations constitute a total of A7> of the survey; they are more organi=ed and have abundance of employees who carry out risk management on their various oil and gas projects. 4.4 %ection 2: Ris' mana(ement rationale

"n line with the objectives of the research, this section of the questionnaire will be used to analy=e the risk management practices carried out by the respondents in the survey. The questions seek to find out how organi=ations identify the sources of risks; the risk response techniques they use; and an analysis of the major risks that emanate in ;igerian oil and gas projects will be carried out so as to determine the five major risks that impede the projects. This will be further analy=ed so as to determine suitable response strategies for these risks. 4.4.1 3r(ani2ations an) ris' mana(ement system:

"n the questionnaire survey results; all the respondents agreed that their individual organi=ations maintained a risk system. /ll also agreed that the identified risks are stored in a risk management database either by recording the risks in a risk register, documenting and storing them as hardcopy files; or by storing them as folders electronically, inside computer hard discs, floppy drives or compact discs. This implies that oil and gas organi=ations pay significant attention to risk management practices so as to effectively mitigate risks on projects.

4.4.2

Ris' ran'in( $or 6i(erian oil an) (as construction pro+ects:

"n the questionnaire survey; the respondents which were thirty $5&( in number; were asked to rate a list of twenty $%&( risks which were identified from e9tensive phone interviews to be the most common sources of risks that emanate in ;igerian oil and gas projects. The average risk scores from the 5& respondents was used to derive the risk inde9 score by putting the numerical values as proposed earlier in equation +.5. This is represented with the formula below:

'%

RI =
i

R
j =1

30

:::::::::::::: equation 4.4

30

,here;

RI i - )isk8inde9 score for risk i Rij - )isk score assessed by respondent j for risk i 30 = ;umber of respondents

The ranking of the identified top twenty $%&( risks was carried out with respect to the risk inde9 score so as to determine the top five $6( major risks so as to further analy=e and develop suitable mitigating strategies for these risks in line with the research objectives. This is similar to a study carried out by Thuyet et al., $%&&7(. The questionnaire results can be shown in table +8* as follows:

a!le 4"7: Ris' ran'in( $or 6i(erian oil an) (as construction pro+ects '5

)ank ' % 5 + 6 ? 7 A * '& '' '% '5 '+ '6 '? '7 'A '* %&

)isk Bode )'%.'6 )'%.6 )'%.? )'%.7 )'%.* )'%.'+ )'%.'& )'%.'' )'%.'5 )'%.5 )'%.'7 )'%.'A )'%.' )'%.A )'%.'% )'%.% )'%.+ )'%.'? )'%.%& )'%.'*

)isk factors #ecurity threats from neighboring residents "ncompetence of project team members 0oor designs Cate internal approvals from clients 0oor and inadequate tendering "nadequate project organi=ation structure Bhanges in design "nadequate budgeting and poor project planning 0oor project feasibility studies "nefficient and poor performance of constructors )educed quality in procured materials 0oor coordination amongst sub8contractors and contractors .amage to work by third party 2ureaucratic project and government approval procedures .ifferences in practices between local and foreign contractors Environmental protection pressure of other groups 0oor relationship with government bodies Cate provision or delivery of materials ,orking conditions deferring from contract specification Cack of e9perience in design and construction

)" &.6?%' &.5A%5 &.576 &.%*7+ &.%A'' &.%7++ &.%+6A &.%57A &.%%7A &.%'%6 &.%&*A &.'*?6 &.'7?+ &.'??6 &.'?5A &.'6*% &.'+6% &.'+6% &.'''% &.'&A?

/ comprehensive list of the ranked risks as deduced from a combination of in8depth telephone interviews and questionnaire survey is shown in the table above. The twenty $%&( risks are sorted accordingly, in ascending order of their overall impact on oil and gas projects in ;igeria. The top ten risks will then be analy=ed further to determine their '+

features, characteristics and causes; so that adequate strategies can be proposed to mitigate the risks. 4.4.3 he analysis o$ the top ten ris's in 6i(erian oil an) (as construction pro+ects:

"n line with the objectives of the study, the top ten major risks in ;igerian oil and gas projects will be analy=ed thoroughly. "n order to analy=e these top ten major risks; the mean of occurrence and the mean of impact degree for each individual risk identified by the respondents where determined. This can be seen as shown in table +8'& as follows:

a!le 4"18: op ten ris's statistics $or 6i(erian oil an) (as construction pro+ects '6

)ank ' % 5 + 6 ? 7 A * '& '' '% '5 '+ '6 '? '7 'A '* %&

)isk code )'%.'6 )'%.6 )'%.? )'%.7 )'%.* )'%.'+ )'%.'&

)isk actors #ecurity threats from neighboring residents "ncompetence of project team members 0oor designs Cate internal approvals from clients 0oor and inadequate tendering "nadequate project organi=ation structure

1ean of 1ean of 3ccurrence "mpact requency .egree $ r( $"m( &.7 &.6'55 &.+*55 &.%? &.6555 &.+%?7 &.+??7 &.6? &.+%?7 &.+% &.+%?7 &.?&?7 &.%755 &.5+ &.5A &.%655 &.%755 &.5% &.%555 &.%655 &.7? &.?655 &.?A &.+A55 &.6%?7 &.6*55 &.+A &.+%?7 &.+A?7 &.+755 &.+655 &.5%?7 &.7 &.+??7 &.5&?7 &.6? &..+*55 &.+&?7 &.5'55 &.%*55

)isk "nde9 #core $)"( &.6?%' &.5A%5 &.576 &.%*7+ &.%A'' &.%7++ &.%+6A &.%57A &.%%7A &.%'%6 &.%&*A &.'*?6 &.'7?+ &.'??6 &.'?5A &.'6*% &.'+6% &.'+6% &.'''% &.'&A?

Bhanges in design "nadequate budgeting and poor project )'%.'' planning )'%.'5 )'%.5 )'%.'7 )'%.'A )'%.' )'%.A )'%.'% )'%.% )'%.+ "mproper project feasibility studies "nefficient and poor performance of constructors )educed quality in procured materials 0oor coordination amongst sub8 contractors and contractors .amage to work by third party 2ureaucratic project and government approval procedures .ifferences in practices between local and foreign contractors Environmental protection pressure of other groups 0oor relationship with government bodies

)'%.'? Cate provision or delivery of materials ,orking conditions deferring from )'%.%& contract specification Cack of e9perience in design and )'%.'* construction

rom table +8'& above, it can be deduced that security threats from neighboring residents! risk take up the first position with a risk8inde9 score $&.6?%'(, to become the risk with the highest risk score8inde9. This is an e9ternal risk and has both the highest mean of impact '?

degree $&.7?( and the highest mean of occurrence frequency $&.7(. "t implies that oil and projects in ;igeria are highly prone to this major risk. "t was gathered from the conducted interviews that the main causes of this risk were disturbances from the local residents and militants in the ;iger .elta region in the form of assault and kidnapping of oil and gas companies employees; vandali=ing of oil and gas pipelines; and sabotage $fire and e9plosion of oil and gas facilities(. "t was also gathered that due to lack of compensation payment which was supposed to be paid to the poor rural dwellers of these oil rich regions for the compulsory acquisition of their lands for oil and gas e9ploration; always generates crisis in the area. $3gedengbe, %&&7( The second to the fifth risks are as follows: "ncompetence of project team members! with a risk8inde9 score $&.5A%5(; poor designs! with a risk8inde9 score $&.576(; late internal approvals from clients! with a risk8inde9 score $&.%*7+(; and poor and inadequate tendering! with a risk8inde9 score $&.%A''(. rom the second down to the tenth $%nd to '&th( ranking risks are all internal risks. ,ithin this limits were risks which also occupied high positions in the risk ranking and were associated with the management activities of the client. They are as follows: "ncompetence of project team members! as the %nd; late internal approvals from clients! as the +th; inadequate project organi=ation structure! as the ?th; inadequate budgeting and poor project planning! as the Ath and improper project feasibility studies! as the * th. The fact that these management associated risks have high ranking signifies that clients and employers in ;igerian oil and gas construction projects are failing in their duties of directing; motivating employees; organi=ing; controlling; and planning oil and gas projects. rom the interviews conducted, it was revealed that the reason for these lapses accrue to lack of a defined system in projects! structure and incompetent workers being used on projects. Thus, it can be inferred that; in order to manage these risks, there should be a focus on improving clients! management skills, abilities and knowledge as well as employees capabilities. "t is worth noting that two risks which had high risk ranking; and found their places as the 5rd and 7th in the top ten risk ranking were associated with the designs. They are: poor designs! with a risk8inde9 score $&.576(; and changes in design! with a risk8inde9 score '7

$&.%+6A(. 0oor designs! risk although occupied the overall third position, had the second highest mean of impact degree $&.?655(. This is because design works which are done at the early stages of oil and gas projects have a very huge impact on the total outcome of projects. / little flaw in a design can cause enormous changes in the construction phase and in allocating resources; thus, reducing quality and causing cost and time overruns on projects. $Thuyet, et al., %&&7( Bhanges in design! risk is common in oil and gas projects and the earlier it occurs, the lesser it has impact on the total project outcome. "t usually occurs in the construction phase of ;igerian oil and gas projects. This risk had &.+A as the mean of impact degree and this implies that changes in design in ;igerian oil and gas projects have a medium effect or impact on the overall project outcome. rom the interviews, it was gathered that this risk is usually caused by changes in design specifications, scope changes and poor quality designs. To curb these risks, design standards are put in place to enable regulators, clients and contractors to reach a mutual understanding about the way to carry out designs. $#nell, %&&A( 0oor and inadequate tendering! risk had the ranking position as 6th; with a risk8inde9 score $&.%A''(, mean of impact degree $&.6%?7( and mean of occurrence frequency $&.6555(. This means that this risk has a severe impact on project outcomes. rom the interviews, it was revealed that risks associated with tendering in oil and gas projects in ;igeria are attributed to poor contractor selection by clients. "ncompetent and unreliable contractors end up winning bids due to inadequacies in the evaluation processes and selection criteria which lacked due processes!. Thus, contractors are appointed by public and private sector clients! not on merit but based on whom they know. $3gunsemi and /je, %&&?( This makes contactor and client ethics during contractor selection and evaluation processes a comple9 and sensitive issue yet to be addressed in ;igerian oil and gas projects. The '&th risk inefficient and poor performance of constructors! with a risk8inde9 score $&.%'%6(; mean of impact degree $&.+755(; and mean of occurrence frequency $&.+%(. This risk was identified to be a very sensitive risk that needs to be addressed in ;igerian oil and gas industry. Blients! projects often end up suffering from overruns in cost, delays in time, poor quality services and decreased productivity due to poor performance on the contractor 'A

side. "n8depth interviews revealed that lack of sufficient equipments and technology; appropriate e9perience; financial capability; trained employees; available resources; good quality construction methods; and efficient management skills; were the causes of contractors poor performance on projects. 2esides, ;igeria oil and gas projects which are usually large and comple9, requiring huge capital investment, modern technologies and ever changing up to date construction methods; attracts multinational companies. Bonsequently, conflicts that impede project successes are often generated due to the differences in technology know how between the employees of multinational and indigenous companies. 4.0 Ris' response strate(ies $or miti(atin( the ma+or ris's

"n the previous section, the top ten major risks in ;igerian oil and gas projects were identified with their frequency of occurrence and degree of impact. "n line with the objectives of the study and due to the time constraints and limits of the research; qualitative method of research was used via telephone interviews with e9perienced personnel of the ;igerian oil and gas industry; to find out the characteristics and causes as well as to propose efficient strategies to effectively mitigate only the five major risks on the risk ranking developed from the quantitative analysis because of the severe impacts they have on oil and gas projects in ;igeria. This section will focus on analy=ing each individual risk thoroughly. 4.0.1 %ecurity threats $rom nei(h!orin( resi)ents 9R12.10:

The risks accruing to security threats from neighboring residents on ;igerian oil and gas projects are enormous. These are e9ternal risks that inhibit the achievement of a project!s cost, time and quality objectives. "t was gathered from the conducted interviews that the agitating youths and militants activities on oil and gas fields in the form of assault and kidnapping of oil and gas companies employees $Eweje, %&&7(; vandali=ing of oil and gas pipelines; and sabotage $fire and e9plosion of oil and gas facilities(. "t was also gathered that due to lack of compensation payment which was supposed to be paid to the poor rural dwellers of these oil rich regions for the compulsory acquisition of their lands for oil and gas e9ploration; always generates crisis in the area. $3gedengbe, %&&7(

'*

"n this light, the respondents to the interview that were carried out proposed several strategies which include: '. The compulsory land use act should be amended so that adequate compensation fees should be paid to the owners of the acquired lands by oil and gas companies or the federal government. %. Borporate social responsibility $B#)( $Evuleocha, %&&6( should be enforced by the federal government so as to increase the development of these oil rich communities by oil and gas companies. 5. The federal government of ;igeria should seek to enforce stringent laws on waste disposals so as to stop the oil spillages from activities from oil and gas construction activities. $Essoka, et al., %&&?( +. The C;< production should be introduced fully so as stop the flaring of gases which cause harm to human, animals and the entire ecological environment in the ;iger .elta region. $<albraith, %&&A( 4.0.2 Incompetence o$ pro+ect team mem!ers 9R12.0:

rom the phone interviews, it was gathered that the ;igerian oil and gas projects lack individuals with skills, knowledge and ability to perform their duties efficiently. Even though most project team members possessed at least one form of higher education degree, there is still that lack of insufficient skills needed to manage oil and gas projects. "n this view, the following strategies were proposed by the interviewees as follows: '. Effective teamwork should be enhanced via staff training to update them with the new technologies and industry skills. %. <ood staffing by effectively matching project team members to the right projects where they can function efficiently to achieve optimum productivity. 4.0.3 ;oor )esi(ns 912.1:

The risks of poor designs by contractors in ;igerian oil and gas projects are enormous, and usually cause the non8achievement of projects! cost, time and quality objectives. ,ho absorbs the e9tra cost of incomplete or unclear scopes and specifications, ambiguous design and designers! incompetenceF This question usually causes a lot of conflict between clients %&

and contractors. "n ;igeria, indigenous companies have little e9perience in design of oil and gas facilities, thus there e9ists a dominance of foreign multinational companies that have more e9perience but still run into design difficulties due to the comple9 nature of the designs in the industry. "n this light, the respondents to the interview that were carried out proposed several strategies which include $Thuyet, %&&7(: '. "ndigenous companies partnering with the multinationals to improve cost effectiveness; efficiency; quality of products and services; transparency and transfer of technology, long term commitment and enhanced opportunity for innovation. %. Bontractor selection to be based on e9perience and previous performance so that competent and e9perienced manpower will be carrying out design works efficiently. 5. Gsing concurrent engineering to improve constructability and time savings. +. .esign standards put in place to enable regulators, clients and contractors to have a mutual understanding about the way to carry out designs. $#nell, %&&A( 4.0.4 <ate internal approvals $rom clients 912.4:

This is an internal project risk that usually originates in clients organi=ation. The interview respondents revealed that this risk emanates on ;igerian oil and gas projects due to managers lacking the authority to solve problems and lack of employee commitment. 0roject managers are usually faced with the problem of slow responses from the top management to pressing project issues e.g. allocating resources. This leads to time and at times lead to cost overruns on projects. $Thuyet, %&&A( "n this light, the respondents to the interview that were carried out proposed the following strategies: '. Gsing TH1 $Total Huality 1anagement( practices for enhancing the involvement of all project employees to share in the project vision and goals. %. Empowering project managers with approvals authority so as to make on time and faster decisions which enhances innovation and successful delivery of projects.

%'

4.0.0

;oor an) ina)e/uate ten)erin( 912.7:

The risk accruing to poor and inadequate tendering usually, can deviate a project from meeting up with its objectives. 3il and gas projects usually adopt one of the following methods; restricted tendering, open tendering, restricted accelerated, competitive negotiated, competitive negotiated accelerated tendering and dialogues. $0alaneeswaran and kumaraswamy, %&&'( The interviews revealed that lack of due processes! $unethical attitudes of bidders( and inadequate evaluation criteria! are the main sources that pose tendering risks in ;igerian oil and gas industry. 0ublic sector clients often accept lowest price tender so as to show accountability and in defense for criticisms. $,ong, et al., %&&&( 1oreover, these bidders submit low prices to win and after winning, they negotiate with clients at later stages to mark8up their tender. /nother identified source is the collusion of bidders like withdrawal, bribery, and false inflation of covering and tender prices. "n this light, the respondents to the interview that were carried out proposed the following strategies: '. The technique, 1B.1 $1ultiple criteria decision making( should be used for evaluating contractors. %. Blients increasing legal enforcement of collusion by improving the detection of bidders during prequalification and final stages of evaluation. 5. Blients using selective tendering by inviting only credible and professional contractors 4.1 %ummary

The quantitative and qualitative approaches were used to assess the major risks that emanate in ;igerian oil and gas construction projects. The findings from results from the background information of the questionnaire survey reveals that risk management practices in ;igeria oil and gas industry involves people with high industry e9perience; educated; and mostly carry out projects in both upstream and downstream sector. 1ost of the organi=ations have e9perience in oil and gas activities because they have been in e9istence long enough in the industry; with adequate staff strength. The second part the questionnaire revealed that all organi=ations in ;igerian oil and gas industry maintain a risk management system as well as store identified risks in a risk %%

management database either as hard copies or electronic copies in computer hard drives, compact discs and floppy drives. The top ten major risks that emanate on oil and gas construction projects both in the upstream and downstream oil and gas sectors are: 6.% #ecurity threats from neighboring residents ?.% "ncompetence of project team members 7.% 0oor designs A.% Cate internal approvals from clients *.% 0oor and inadequate tendering '&.% "nadequate project organi=ation structure ''.% Bhanges in design '%.% "nadequate budgeting and poor project planning '5.% "mproper project feasibility studies '+.% "nefficient and poor performance of constructors Hualitative method was used via in8depth telephone interviews; to further analy=e the top five major risks due to their high mean of impact degree and high risk inde9 score thoroughly. The causes and characteristics of the top five major risks; as well as mitigating strategies were developed to curb the top five major risks that emanate on ;igerian oil and gas projects.

%5

=hapter 0: =onclusion an) recommen)ations

2.1 =onclusion:

"n recent times, the concept of risk management is an essential process that cannot be neglected in the management of projects in developed countries. ;evertheless, the practice is still new during the implementation of projects in developing countries; which includes ;igeria. 3nly the ;igerian oil and gas sector seems to be the sector amongst others; that is keen on utili=ing risk management practices during the implementation of projects because of the volatile nature of products and characteristics of the project environment where the operation and processes are carried out, in a constantly changing dynamic environment which is e9posed to enormous risks. Thus, this research is very significant and timely considering the fact that the oil and gas sector is the most important contributor to the total revenue of the ;igerian economy. The research dissertation which aimed at identifying the risk factors that affect oil and gas construction projects and to derive risk responses for them was accomplished via reali=ing the following research objectives: The different types of risks as well as the different environments where these risks originate in oil and gas projects where identified from an e9tensive literature review. / closer assessment via a questionnaire survey was systematically used to determine the frequency of occurrence and the degree of impact of the major sources of risks that emanate in oil and gas construction projects in ;igeria. The results of the research via the risk scores of the major risks revealed that the top ten major risks in oil and gas construction projects in ;igeria were: '. #ecurity threats from neighboring residents %. "ncompetence of project team members 5. 0oor designs +. Cate internal approvals from clients 6. 0oor and inadequate tendering ?. "nadequate project organi=ation structure %+

7. Bhanges in design A. "nadequate budgeting and poor project planning *. "mproper project feasibility studies '&. "nefficient and poor performance of constructors

0.2

Recommen)ations

or the successful delivery of projects, it is essential that a thorough e9amination of the major risks affecting a project is e9amined. "n the quest to develop strategies to effectively mitigate the identified major risks; literature and in8depth interviews were carried out in the research and were used to proffer appropriate practical strategies which where proposed for the top five most ranked, major risks in oil and gas construction projects in ;igeria. The research proposed recommendations to effectively mitigate the top8five major risks as follows: '. The compulsory land use act should be amended so that adequate compensation fees should be paid to the owners of the acquired lands by oil and gas companies or the federal government. %. Borporate social responsibility $B#)( should be enforced by the federal government so as to increase the development of these oil rich communities by oil and gas companies. 5. The federal government of ;igeria should seek to enforce stringent laws on waste disposals so as to stop the oil spillages from activities from oil and gas construction activities. +. The C;< production should be introduced fully so as stop the flaring of gases which cause harm to human, animals and the entire ecological environment in the ;iger .elta region. 6. Effective teamwork should be enhanced via staff training to update them with the new technologies and industry skills. ?. <ood staffing by effectively matching project team members to the right projects where they can function efficiently to achieve optimum productivity.

%6

7. "ndigenous companies partnering with the multinationals to improve cost effectiveness; efficiency; quality of products and services; transparency and transfer of technology, long term commitment and enhanced opportunity for innovation. A. Bontractor selection to be based on e9perience and previous performance so that competent and e9perienced manpower will be carrying out design works efficiently. *. Gsing concurrent engineering to improve constructability and time savings. '&. .esign standards put in place to enable regulators, clients and contractors to have a mutual understanding about the way to carry out designs. ''. Gsing TH1 $Total Huality 1anagement( practices for enhancing the involvement of all project employees to share in the project vision and goals. '%. Empowering project managers with approvals authority so as to make on time and faster decisions which enhances innovation and successful delivery of projects. '5. The technique, 1B.1 $1ultiple criteria decision making( should be frequently used for evaluating contractors. '+. Blients increasing legal enforcement of collusion by improving the detection of bidders during prequalification and final stages of evaluation. '6. Blients should be using selective tendering by inviting only credible and professional contractors

0.3

<imitations o$ research

,ith regards to the gap in distance between the author and the target population; and the infle9ible time schedule required for completing the research, the choice of telephone interviews and the use of an electronic questionnaire was the most suitable media for data collection for the research. Iowever, it was recogni=ed that the representation of the entire target population may not be repudiated from the respondents views because; not all the operators in the upstream and downstream sector of the ;igerian oil and gas industry may have access to internet to facilitate the data collection process. ;evertheless, the sample still continues to be a valid and dependable information source since most of the corporate, public and private sector oil and gas organi=ations in ;igeria have internet access.

%?

0.4

Recommen)ations $or $uture research

Iaving undertaken the research on risk management in oil and gas construction projects in ;igeria; opportunities are open for future research to be aimed at using the ascertained major sources of risks and recommended strategies proposed in the research dissertation; for developing a practical risk management model for future use by clients, investors, researchers and all stakeholders that have interest in the ;igerian oil and gas industry.

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"brahim, 1.M. $%&&A(, <rowth prospects of oil and gas abundant economies: the ;igerian e9perience $'*7&8%&&&(, ournal o" /conomic Studie!, Jol. 56 ;o. %, pp. '7&8'*&. Mones, B. $'**+(, A!!e!!ment and $ontrol o" So"t5are %i!k!, 0rentice8Iall, Englewood Bliffs, ;M 4artam, ;./. and 4artam, #./. $%&&'(, )isk and its management in the 4uwaiti construction industry: contractors! perspective, "nternational Mournal of 0roject 1anagement, Jol. '*, ;o. ?, pp. 5%68556. 4han, #./., $'**+(, 9igeria: The Political /conomy o" -il, 39ford Gniversity 0ress. 4iel, 1., Bule, 0.E., Cyytinen, 4. and #chmidt, ).B., $'**A(, A "rame5ork "or identi"ying !o"t5are .ro*ect ri!k!, Bommunications of the /B1, Jol. +', ;o. '', pp. 7?8A5. 4ieserman, 2.M. $'***(, 0rofits and principles: promoting multinational corporate responsibility by amending the /lien Tort Blaims /ct, The $atholic )ni0er!ity 4a5 %e0ie5, Jol. +, spring, p. AA' Cee, L.#., 4im, L., 4im, #.I., 4im, B., Bhung, B.I. and ET Mung, ,..., $%&&+(, /nalysis of human error and organi=ational deficiency in events considering risk significance, 9uclear /ngineering and 7e!ign, %5&, pp. ?'8?7. Ceedy, 0... O 3rmrod, M.E. $%&&6(, Practical %e!earch: Planning and 7e!ign, Ath edn, Bollier81acmillan, 0rentice Iall, ;ew Mersey. Cong, ;..., 3gunlana, #., Huang, T. and Cam, 4.B. $%&&+(, Carge construction projects in developing countries: a case study from Jietnam, International ournal -" Pro*ect +anagement, vol. %%, ;o. 7, pp. 66586?'. Couca, C./., and 1ohammed /li, ).1. $%&&A(, "mproving the ductile behaviour of offshore topside structures under e9treme loads, /ngineering Structure!, 5&, pp. 6&?86%'. Cuu, J.T., 4im, #.L., ;guyen, J.T. and 3gunlana, #.3. $%&&A(, Huantifying schedule risk in construction 0rojects using bayesian belief networks, International ournal o" Pro*ect +anagement, doi:'&.'&'?@j.ijproman.%&&A.&5.&&5. 1ills, /. $%&&'(, / systematic approach to risk management for construction, !tructural !ur0ey, Jol. '*, ;o. 6, pp. %+68%6% 1ohammed /li, ).1. and Couca, C./., $%&&A(, 0erformance based design of blast resistant offshore topsides, 0art ": 0hilosophy, ournal o" $on!tructional Steel %e!earch, ?+, pp. '&5&8'&+6 1unn, 0. and .rever, E. $'**&(, )!ing :ue!tionnaire! in Small&Scale %e!earch, #B)E, #cotland 5&

;aoum, #.<. $%&&7(, 7i!!ertation re!earch and 5riting "or con!truction !tudent!, %nd edn, 2utterworth8Ieinemann, 39ford, G4 ;igerian ;ational 0etroleum Borporation $;;0B( $%&&A(, A'out 99P$. /vailable: http:@@www.nnpcgroup.com@retail.htm P/ccessed %6 Muly %&&AQ. ;igerian ;ational 0etroleum Borporation $;;0B( $%&&A(, A'out 99P$. /vailable: http:@@www.nnpcgroup.com@potential.htm P/ccessed %6 Muly %&&AQ. ;igerian ;ational 0etroleum Borporation $;;0B( $%&&A(, A'out 99P$. /vailable: http:@@www.nnpcgroup.com@aboutus.htm P/ccessed %6 Muly %&&AQ. ;igerian ;ational 0etroleum Borporation $;;0B( $%&&A(, 7o5n!tream -..ortunitie!. /vailable: http:@@www.nnpcgroup.com@downstream.htm P/ccessed %6 Muly %&&AQ. ;igerian ;ational 0etroleum Borporation $;;0B( $%&&A(, ).!tream -..ortunitie!. /vailable: http:@@www.nnpcgroup.com@upstream.htm P/ccessed %6 Muly %&&AQ. ;wachukwu, B. $%&&A( ;igerian investors make steel, pipes for oil and gas industry, The Punch 9e5!.a.er, Thursday, 1ay %*, %&&A, pp. %58%6. 3deh, /.1. and 2attaneih, I.T. $%&&%(, Bauses of construction delay: traditional contracts, International ournal o" Pro*ect +anagement, vol. %&, ;o. ', pp. ?7875 3gedengbe, 0.#. $%&&7(, Bompulsory acquisition of oil e9ploration fields in .elta #tate ;igeria: The compensation problem, ournal o" Pro.erty In0e!tment 3 1inance, Jol. %6, ;o. ', pp. ?%87?. 3gunsemi, ..). and /je, ".3. $%&&?(, The "mpact of Bontractors 0requalification on construction 0roject .elivery in ;igeria, Proceeding! o" the International $on"erence in the Built /n0ironment in the 21!t $entury ;I$IB/ 2<<=>, eds. M.J. Torrance, I. /dnan O ). Takim, 4uala Cumpur: 1alaysia, pp. '''8'%& 3kpala, ..B., Evaluation and selection of construction projects in ;igeria. $on!truction management and economic!, Jol. *, ;o. ', '**', ebruary, 6'8?'. 3lsen, M.E. $%&&%(, <lobal ethics and the /lien Tort Blaims /ct: a summary of three cases within the oil and gas industry, +anagement 7eci!ion, Jol. +&, ;o. 7, pp. 7%&87%+ 0alaneeswaran, E. O kumaraswamy, 1.1. $%&&'(, )ecent advances and proposed improvements in contractor prequalification methodologies, Building and /n0ironment, Jol. 5?, ;o. ', pp. 758A7. 0atterson, ... and ;eailey, 4. $%&&%(, / risk register database system to aid the management of project risk, International ournal o" Pro*ect +anagement, Jol. %&, ;o. 6, pp. 5?6857+.

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0etroleum 0roducts 0ricing )egulatory /gency $000)/( $%&&A(, 7eregulation Policy: A %e0ie5. /vailable: http:@@www.pppra8nigeria.org@articledetails.aspF/rticle".-' P/ccessed &5 /ugust %&&AQ. 0etroleum 0roducts 0ricing )egulatory /gency $000)/( $%&&Ab(, Petroleum 1acilitie! in 9igeria. /vailable: http:@@www.pppra8nigeria.org@retailRoutlets.asp P/ccessed &5 /ugust %&&AQ. 0roject 1anagement "nstitute $01"( $%&&+(, a guide to the Pro*ect +anagement Body o" ?no5ledge ;P+B-? guide>, 5rd edn, 01", G#/ 0roject 1anagement "nstitute $01"( $%&&&(, a guide to the Pro*ect +anagement Body o" ?no5ledge ;P+B-? guide>, 01", G#/ )afiu, ". $%&&6(, Accident! at retail outlet!, .aily Bhampion, Cagos. )aftery, M. $'**+(, %i!k Analy!i! in Pro*ect +anagement, EO ; #pon, Condon )isk 1anagement #tandard /#@;N# +5?& $'***(, %i!k +anagement Standard AS89@S 43=<, #tandards /ssociation of /ustralia, #ydney )oberts, /. ,allace, ,. and 1cBlure, ;., $%&&5(, Strategic %i!k +anagement, Edinburgh 2usiness #chool, Ieriot8watt Gniversity, Edinburgh, G4. #haluf, ".1. $%&&A(, / flare incident at an oil field, 7i!a!ter Pre0ention and +anagement, Jol. '7, ;o. ', pp. ?8'6. #hen, C.L., ,u, <.E.B. and ;g, B.#.4. $%&&'(, )isk /ssessment for Bonstruction Moint Jentures in Bhina, ournal o" $on!truction /ngineering and +anagement, Jol.'%7, ;o. ', Manuary@ ebruary: pp. 7?8A'. #immons, 4. and .uhaney, 2. $%&&A(, Escravos float8over installation dictates platform design, -""!hore maga6ine: 7rilling technology8India re.ort, /pril, Jol. ?A, ;o. +, pp.'&%8 '&+. #nell, ). $%&&A(, 3ffshore #tructures 8 #tandardi=ation, -""!hore Technology International, %&&A, pp. '?78'?*. #tevens, 0. $%&&6(, 3il markets, -A"ord %e0ie5 o" /conomic Policy, Jol. %', ;o. ', pp. '*8 +%. Tchankova, C. $%&&%(, )isk identification K basic stage in risk management, /n0ironmental +anagement and ,ealth, Jol. '5, ;o. 5, pp. %*&8%*7. Toor, #. and 3gunlana, #.3. $%&&A(, Bonquering the Bonstruction 2attle: 3vercoming the problems on large construction projects in a developing economy, Proceeding! o" the International con"erence in the Built /n0ironment in the 21!t $entury ;I$IB/ 2<<=>, eds. M.J. Torrance and /dnan, I. and Takim, )., 4uala Cumpur: 1alaysia, pp. *7. 5%

Thuyet, ;.J., 3gunlana, #.3. and .ey, 4.0., $%&&7(, )isk 1anagement in 3il and <as Bonstruction 0rojects in Jietnam, International ournal o" /nergy Sector +anagement, Jol. ', "ssue: %, pp. '768'*+. ,ard, #.B. $'***(, /ssessing and 1anaging "mportant )isks. International ournal o" Pro*ect +anagement, Jol. '7, ;o. ?, pp. 55'855? ,alliman, ;. $%&&6(, Bour %e!earch Pro*ect, %nd edn, #/<E, Condon ,illiams, B./., #mith, 1.". and Loung, 0.B. $'**A(, %i!k +anagement and In!urance, "rwin, 1c<raw Iill ,hittaker, 2. $'***(, ,hat went wrongF Gnsuccessful information technology projects, In"ormation +anagement and $om.uter Security, Jol. 7, ;o. ', pp. %58%*. ,isker, <. $%&&A(, The Po!tgraduate %e!earch ,and'ook, %nd edn, 0algrave, 1acmillan, ;ew Lork. ,ong, B.I., Iolt, <... and Booper, 0./. $%&&&(, Cowest price or valueF "nvestigation of G4 construction clients! tender selection process, $on!truction +anagement and /conomic!, Jol. 'A, ;o. 7, 00. 7?7877+ ,orld 2ank $'**7(, Corld 7e0elo.ment %e.ort, ,orld 2ank, ,ashington, .B Nafra8Babe=a, /.N., )idao, 1./., Bamacho, E. ., $%&&A(, Gsing a risk8based approach to project scheduling: / case illustration from semiconductor manufacturing, /uro.ean ournal o" -.erational %e!earch, '*&, pp. 7&A87%5.

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