Monitoring of Climate Change Risk Impacts of Sea Level Rise on Groundwater and Agriculture in the Nile Delta

Final Report

Simulation the Likely Impacts of Conjunct Rise in Temperature as a Direct Impact of Sea Level Rise on Length of Growing Season and Yield of Key Crops in the Nile Delta

Project ID: TCP/EGY/3301 (D) Supporting Agency: Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO)
April 2013

Implemented Institute
Central Laboratory for Agricultural Climate (CLAC)

Contents
Executive Summary 1. Introduction 2. Objectives 3. Methods 3.1. Crop models 3.2. Crop Model Validation 4. Results and discussion 4.1. Faba bean Crop 4.1.1. Crop model validation 4.1.2. Effect of locations and cultivars on simulated faba bean yield: 4.1.3. Effect of locations and cultivars on faba bean Production under climate change conditions: 4.2. Wheat crop 4.2.1 Crop model validation 4.2.2 Direct Impact of rising Temperature on Growing cycle and yield 4.2.2.1. Days to Antheis 4.2.2.2. Days to physiological maturity 4.2.2.3. Yield at harvest maturity 4.3. Rice crop 4.3.1. Crop model validation 4.3.2. Impact of climate change on rice. 6 8 9 9 10 10 11 11 11 11 12 16 16 16 16 17 18 22 22 22

4.3.2.1 Effects of future climate scenario on number of days to flowering 4.3.2.2 Differences of future climate scenario effects on number of days to flowering 4.3.2.3 Effects of future climate scenario on number of days to physiological maturity. 4.3.2.4 Differences of future climate scenario effects on number of days to physiological maturity 4.3.2.5 Effects of future climate scenario on grain yield at harvest maturity 4.3.2.6 Differences of future climate scenario effects on yield at harvest maturity 5. Conclusions References

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List of tables Table (1): Coordinates and the crop pattern of study locations Table (2): Effect of locations and cultivars on simulated faba bean dry yield (t ha-1). Table (3): Effect of locations and cultivars on simulated faba bean dry yield (t ha-1) under climate change (2030). Table (4): Effect of locations and cultivars on simulated faba bean dry yield (t ha-1) under climate change (2060). Table (5): Simulation of days to anthesis for wheat crop using current and future scenarios of rising temperature with increase in SLR at the three different locations. Table (6): Simulation of days to physiological maturity for wheat crop using current and future scenarios of rising temperature with increase in SLR at the three different locations. Table (7): Simulation of yield at harvest maturity for wheat crop using current and future scenarios of rising temperature with increase in SLR at the three different locations. Table (8): Changes in number of days to anthesis (flowering) for rice cultivars under current and future climate at Behera, Kafr El-Sheikh and Damietta locations Table (9): Changes in number of physiological maturity days for rice cultivars under current and future climate at Behera, Kafr El-Sheikh and Damietta locations Table (10): Changes in grain yield (kg ha-1) for rice cultivars under current and future climate at Behera, Kafr El-Sheikh and Damietta locations. 30 27 24 21 20 19 10 13

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List of figures Figure (1): Effect of climate change scenario during (2030 and 2060) on number of days to anthesis (flowering) for rice cultivars at studies locations Figure (2): Effect of climate change scenario during (2030 and 2060) on physiological maturity for rice cultivars at studies locations Figure (3): Effect of climate change scenario during (2030 and 2060) on grain yield (Kg ha-1) for rice cultivars at studies locations 28 25

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Executive Summary
Various agrocilmatic locations from the coastal area of the Nile delta have been selected among the project targeted points to study impacts of future rising in temperature on production of main crops in such area. This selection was dependent on their crop patterns, their elevation from recent sea level, as well as their representation of the three main governorates' summer and winter cultivations. Three locations from Behera, Kafr El-Sheikh, and Damietta governorates have been selected according to their cultivation of wheat in winter and rice in summer. Two other locations have been selected for their cultivation of Faba bean in winter. Faba bean dry yield differed according to locations and cultivars and climate change scenario. The difference between current (season 2009/2010) and predicted yield under climate change was decreased gradually from -8.77 to -21.65% for the years 2030 and 2060 is estimated. The negative impact was minimized when planting date was delayed from 1st November to 1st December. A yield reduction from -4.73 to -19.67% is estimated for the years 2030 and 2060 in the new planting dates. Wheat grain yield of the four different varieties gave different values under current and future conditions. At Behera location under current weather conditions was estimated to be between 1387 and 1871 kg ha-1. These amounts will be reduced between -27.2% and 28.8% in year 2030 and between -57.9% and -60.9% in year 2060. At Kafr El-Sheikh location, plant production under current weather conditions varied in range of 2965 and 3512 kg ha-1. These amounts will be reduced between -1.7% and -6.6% in year 2030 and between 18.4% and -23.7% in year 2060. At Damietta location, yield under current weather conditions was estimated to be between 2265 and 2534 kg ha-1. These amounts will be reduced between -7.4% and -10.8% in year 2030 and between -13.9% and -18% in year 2060. Reduction in yield is varying year over year, and adaptation to the coming weather conditions should take its deserved consideration. Comparing the reduction in Rice grain yield at climate change scenario during 2030 and 2060 showed reduction at 2060 more than reduction caused at 2030 for all locations. At Behera location, reduction gave a range from -5.7 to -20.9% during 2030 and from -17. to 31.8% during 2060. At Kafr El-Sheikh location, reduction gave a range from -8.5 to -20.1%

during 2030 and from -14.7 to -30.5% during 2060, while the reduction gave a range from 8.4 to -22.1 during 2030 and from -11.1 to -32.0% during 2060 at Damietta location. Sakha 101 cultivar at Behera location gave the lowest reduction -5.7 % in comparison with other cultivars at different locations and Giza 181 cultivar at Damietta location gave highest reduction -22.1 % in comparison with other cultivars at different locations during 2030. During 2060, Sakha 102 and Giza 181 cultivars at Damietta location gave lowest and highest reduction -11.1 and -32.0 %, respectively in comparison with other cultivars at different locations.

1. Introduction
Climate change and sea level rise are now a reality. The recent finding of the fourthassessment report of the world scientific community, represented by the intergovernmentalpanel on climate change (IPCC), demonstrates that human activities are responsible for global warming and global climate change and sea level rise (UNDP, 2007). Various human activities are making the world hot to hotter where the ultimate result is global warming, i.e. climate change. Anthropogenic causes responsible for global warmingare expected to continue to contribute to an increase in global-mean sea level rise during this century and beyond (Church et al., 2001, IPCC; 2007). It is commonly accepted that the global average surface air temperatures have risen by 0.74o C over the last 100 year from 1906 to 2005. Eleven of last twelve years (1995 2006) rank among the 12 warmest years in the instrumental record of global surface temperature (since 1850) (IPCC, 2007). Rising temperature in the atmosphere causes sea level rise and affects low lying coastal areas and deltas of the world. As global warming causes climate change, the effects of global warming on agriculture due to the change in weather conditions is often invoked in arguments on the course of action involving prediction of climate events. These conditions, including temperature, radiation and water, determine the carrying capacity of the biosphere to produce enough food for the human population and domesticated animals. Any short-term fluctuations of the climate can have dramatic effects on the agricultural productivity. Thus, the climate has a direct incidence on food supply. Also, the often thought anthropogenic cause of global warming, an increase in the amount of carbon dioxide levels, would also have effects, both detrimental and beneficial, on crop yields. It is hoped that a positive effect of global warming would be increased agricultural yields, because of the role of carbon dioxide in photosynthesis. Assessment of the effects of global climate changes on agriculture might help to properly anticipate and adapt farming to maximize agricultural production. (www. The climate change - Agriculture conundrum). Agriculture in Egypt is expected to be especially vulnerable because of hot climate. Further warming is consequently expected to reduce crop productivity. These effects are exacerbated by the fact that agriculture and agroecological systems are especially prominent in the economics of Egypt as one of the African countries. Climate change could exacerbate the food security issues that Egypt already faces. Egypts report to the UNFCCC states that climate change may bring about substantial reductions in the national grain production. Grain is only one of Egypts food sources

endangered by unmitigated climate change. In recent years, crop models have been advanced from restricted academic exercises and tools with potential for wide application in agriculture. Crop models are valuable tools for synthesizing our understanding of physiological processes, hypothesizing genetic improvement, and evaluating crop and soil management strategies (Boote et al., 1996). Model building is an enjoyable if arduous task whereas model testing can be heartbreaking. Perhaps, this is why so many crop models are published without being tested. Testing of a model takes two main forms: validation, in which model predictions are compared with field observations, and sensitivity and uncertainty analysis which test the response of the model to change in certain variables and parameters.

2. Objectives
The study objectives follow the general objectives as set by FAO project Monitoring of Climate Change Risk Impacts of Sea Level Rise on Groundwater and Agriculture in the Nile Delta" These redefined objectives are as follows: 1- Impact of rising temperature in the atmosphere which causes sea level rise on some main food crops in Egypt (faba bean, wheat and rice). 2- Calibration and validation tests for the crops under study. 3- Simulation of the impact of climate change on the crops productivity.

3. Methods
For this assessment we have chosen the ideal sowing date for cultivating faba bean, wheat and rice and crops in north Delta. According to a recent crop pattern was done by Soil, Water, and Environment Research Institute (SWERI), three locations were chosen according to their winter and summer cultivation of faba bean, wheat and rice, as well as their lowest elevation to sea level. These locations were chosen from monitoring governorates (Behera, Kafr El-Sheikh, and Damietta), the coordinates and the crop pattern of these locations are presented in (Table 1). The varieties of faba bean, wheat and rice were evaluated under weather conditions of the three locations accordingly. Length of different growth stages and

productivity were evaluated using DSSAT v4.5.1 growth simulation models. This evaluation was done first under current weather conditions (2009, 2010 and 2011 weather data). Scenario for the future impact have been calculated for each location according to Elganzori (2012) sea level rise and its conjunction with rising temperature in years 2030 and 2060. Table (1): Coordinates and the crop pattern of study locations Latitude N Location Behera Kafr El-Sheikh Kafr El-Sheikh Kafr El-Sheikh Damietta 31 31 31 31 31 ` 12 29 20 18 10 `` 38.70 24.99 31.07 40.12 21.50 30 31 31 30 31 ` 22 5 0 43 50 `` 58.60 16.02 1.96 35.04 47.51 Longitude E Elevation from sea level (cm) 50 40 180 140 50 Wheat - Rice Wheat - Rice Faba bean Faba bean Wheat - Rice Crop pattern

3.1. Crop models

Crop yield was estimated using CERES-Rice, CERES-Wheat and CROPGROfaba bean models to simulate and predict faba bean, wheat and rice growth development and yield. These models were developed and adapted by

Hoogenboom et al., (1994b), Singhet.al. 1998 Boot et al., (2002). The CERES and CROPGRO models simulate crop growth and development, soil water dynamics, and soil nitrogen dynamics in response to weather, soil characteristics, cultivar characteristics and crop management.

3.2. Crop Model Validation

Experimental conditions and results obtained from those locations (Kafr ElSheikh, Behera and Damietta) were used as a database for calibration and validation of models through DSSAT 4.5.1 software to simulate and predict wheat yield. The comparison between actual data and predicted data were done through the models under DSSAT interface in three steps, retrieval data (converting data to CERES-

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Wheat model), and validation data (comparing between predicted and observed data) and run the DSSAT model provides validation of the crop models that allows users to compare simulated outcomes with observed results. Necessary files were prepared to Calibration and validation of applying models as required.

4. Results and discussion

4.1. Faba bean Crop 4.1.1. Crop model validation The comparisons between observed data, which were obtained through field data and predicted data, which were obtained by the DSSAT Software, for faba bean dry yield (t ha-1) at the single planting dates on the two locations with the four cultivars are presented in Table (2). Value of correlation coefficient was significant (P-value 0.015); this means that the same trend was found in predicted and observed data. Paired T-test value was not significant (T-value 0.75); this means that no difference was found between observed and predicted data. Results of the validation experiment indicated that the CROPGRO-Legume model can be used successfully to predict the yield under Egyptian conditions. It was noticed that the output data from the CROPGRO-Legume model through DSSAT software (predicted data) were in harmony with the observed data for faba bean dry yield. The presented data showed that using 1st of November planting date at Behera location with Giza 716 cultivar was the most effective combination treatment for increasing faba bean dry yield. The lowest of yield was obtained at Kafr El-Sheikh location with Giza 843 cultivar. 4.1.2. Effect of locations and cultivars on simulated faba bean yield: Simulation results of faba bean dry yield (t ha-1) as affected by different locations and cultivars are shown in Table (2). Results show that at Behera location with Giza 716 cultivar it increased gradually faba bean dry yield, followed by Kafr El-Sheikh location with Sakha 1 cultivar. The general trends detected from the overall averages of simulated faba bean dry

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yield indicate that faba bean crop have to be planted on recommended planting date (1st of November) to obtain the maximum tuber yield. 4.1.3. Effect of locations and cultivars on faba bean Production under climate change conditions: The potential impact of climatic changes on faba bean dry yield was evaluated by simulating different single planting date, locations and cultivars on simulated faba bean production with climate change Scenario (A1) by the years 2030 and 2060 compared with that predicted under the current conditions of season 2009/ 2010 (Tables 3 and 4). The faba bean dry yield differed according to locations and cultivars and climate change scenario. The difference between current (season 2009/2010) and predicted under climate change was decreased gradually from -8.77 to -21.65% for the years 2030 and 2060 is estimated. The negative impact was minimized when planting date was delayed from 1st November to 1st December. A yield reduction of -4.73 to -19.67% is estimated for the years 2030 and 2060 in the new planting dates. Predicted temperature increases affected crop production negatively. In order to reduce the negative impact of climate change on faba bean crop productivity, different planting dates were evaluated. The results show that delaying planting date (1st December.) tends to increase yield positively compared to the current conditions and under climate change conditions.

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Table (2): Effect of locations and cultivars on simulated faba bean dry yield (t ha-1). Locations Predicted Cultivars 2009/2010 Sakha1 Nubaria2 Giza 716 Giza 843 3.28 2.90 3.09 2.65 2009/2010 3.27 2.88 3.07 2.63 Kafr El-Sheikh Measured % of Predicted 2009/2010 0.4 0.6 0.6 0.9 2009/2010 2.92 3.23 3.92 3.12 2009/2010 2.90 3.20 3.90 3.10 Predicted Behera Measured % of Predicted 2009/2010 0.7 0.9 0.5 0.6

* Hectare = 2.38 feddan. Correlation coefficient = 0.98 T-Value = 1.81 P-Value = 0.142

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Table (3): Effect of locations and cultivars on simulated faba bean dry yield (t ha-1) under climate change (2030). % of 2030 Predicted 2009/2010 2.96 2.58 2.59 2.75 2.82 3.46 2.39 2.75 -9.70% -11.64% -10.64% -14.90% -8.77% -11.64% -9.82% -11.72%

Cultivars

Locations

Predicted 2009/2010 3.28 2.92 2.90 3.23 3.09 3.92 2.65 3.12

Kafr El-Sheikh Sakha1 Behera Kafr El-Sheikh Nubaria2 Behera Kafr El-Sheikh Giza 716 Behera Kafr El-Sheikh Giza 843 Behera

* Change in planting date +30 days from normal date.

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Table (4): Effect of locations and cultivars on simulated faba bean dry yield (t ha-1) under climate change (2060). % of 2060 2.83 2.44 2.42 2.53 2.69 3.27 2.29 2.60 Predicted 2009/2010 -13.58% -16.57% -16.58% -21.65% -12.87% -16.57% -13.66% -16.63%

Cultivars

Locations

Predicted 2009/2010 3.28 2.92 2.90 3.23 3.09 3.92 2.65 3.12

Kafr El-Sheikh

Sakha1
Behera Kafr El-Sheikh

Nubaria2
Behera Kafr El-Sheikh

Giza 716
Behera Kafr El-Sheikh

Giza 843
Behera * Change in planting date +30 days from normal date.

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4.2. Wheat crop

4.2.1 Crop model validation CERES-Wheat crop simulation model has been used to evaluate impacts of future rise in temperature on growing cycle length as well as grain yield production. This model has been calibrated and validated under local conditions of three different agroclimatic locations of Egypt (Sakha, Sids, and Shandaweel) using four different bread wheat varieties (Gemmeiza9, Giza168, Sakha93, and Misr1), soil and weather conditions (Hassanein et al., 2012) giving high

accuracy and model simulation and prediction, hence we have used this model in current study as a tool for decision making in the future.

4.2.2 Direct Impact of rising Temperature on Growing cycle and yield

4.2.2.1. Days to Antheis At Behera location (50cm above sea level), wheat plants under current weather conditions among varieties will need from 118 to 121 days to reach anthesis stage. This required duration will decrease with 4 days and 10 days under weather conditions of years 2030 and 2060, respectively (Table 5). Comparing average differences between current and both future years showed that 2030 will be different with -3.4 than current days to anthesis, and 2060 will be different with -7.8 than current days to anthesis. At Kafr El-Sheikh location (40cm above sea level), 135 to 137 days under current weather conditions were needed to transfer plants to anthesis stage. Plants in year 2030 will need 2 days less than current conditions for Gem9 variety and 1 day less than current conditions for Misr1, whereas they will need one day more to move to anthesis. Plants in year 2060 will need 5 to 7 days less than in current years in order to arrive to physiological maturity (Table 5). Comparing average differences between current and both future years showed that 2030 will be different with -2 than current days to anthesis, and 2060 will be different with 3.9 than current days to anthesis.

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At Damietta location (50cm above sea level), plants under current conditions will need from 136 to 140 days to reach anthesis stage. Plants under future weather conditions, comparing different varieties shows that they will need less number of days to arrive to anthesis stage with a range between 3 to 10 days in year 2030 and a range from 12 to 14 days in year 2060 (Table 5). Comparing average differences between current and both future years showed that 2030 will be different with -4.4 than current days to anthesis, and 2060 will be different with -10.2 than current days to anthesis. 4.2.2.2. Days to physiological maturity At Behera location, plants under same condition will need from 145 to 149 days, depending on variety characteristics, to reach the phase of physiological maturity. This duration will also be reduced under future weather conditions to be less with 4-5 days in 2030 and less with 12-13 days in 2060 (Table 6). Comparing average differences between current and both future years showed that 2030 will be different with -3.1 than current days to physiological maturity and 2060 will be different with -7.5 than current days to physiological maturity. At Kafr El-Sheikh location, 166 to 168 days under current weather

conditions were needed to transfer plants to physiological maturity stage. Plants in year 2030 will need 2 days less than current conditions for Gem9 and Misr1 varieties and the same number of days for the other two varieties. Plants in year 2060 will need 6 days less than current needed period in order to arrive to physiological maturity (Table 6). Comparing average differences between current and both future years showed that 2030 will be different with -0.6 than current days to physiological maturity and 2060 will be different with -4.2 than current days to physiological maturity. At Damietta location, plants under current conditions will need from 167 to 170 days to reach physiological maturity stage. Plants under future weather conditions, comparing different varieties shows that they will need less number of days to arrive to physiological maturity stage with a range between 8 to 10 days in year 2030 and a range from 13 to 17 days in year 2060 (Table 6). Comparing average differences between current and both future years showed that 2030 will

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be different with -3.9 than current days to physiological maturity and 2060 will be different with -8.6 than current days to physiological maturity. 4.2.2.3. Yield at harvest maturity At Behera location, yield of the four different varieties under current weather conditions was estimated to be between 1387 and 1871 kg ha-1. These amounts will be reduced between 27.2% and 28.8% in year 2030 and between 57.9% and 60.9% in year 2060 (Table 7). Comparing average differences between current and both future years showed that 2030 will be different with -28 than current yield and 2060 will be different with -59.4 than current yield. This reduction range should be taken into consideration when we are speaking about adaptation cost and strategy. At Kafr El-Sheikh location, plant production
-1

under

current

weather

conditions varied in range of 2965 and 3512 kg ha . These amounts will be reduced between 1.7% and 6.6% in year 2030 and between 18.4% and 23.7% in year 2060 (Table 7). Comparing average differences between current and both future years showed that 2030 will be different with -4.5 than current yield and 2060 will be different with -21.1 than current yield. Reduction in yield in year 2030 will not be considerably high, but in year 2060 it needs to have more concern in adaptation strategy. At Damietta location, yield under current weather conditions was estimated to be between 2265 and 2534 kg ha-1. These amounts will be reduced between 7.4% and 10.8% in year 2030 and between 13.9% and 18% in year 2060 (Table 7). Comparing average differences between current and both future years showed

that 2030 will be different with -9 than current yield and 2060 will be different with -15.6 than current yield. Reduction in yield is varying year over year, and adaptation coming weather conditions should take its deserved consideration.

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Table (5): Simulation of days to anthesis for wheat crop using current and future scenarios of rising temperature with increase in SLR at the three different locations.
Days to anthesis Cultivars Current Gem9 121 118 118 120 119.3 2030 117 114 114 116 115.3 Diff. -3.3 -3.4 -3.4 -3.3 -3.4 Days to anthesis Cultivars Current 2030 135 136 136 136 135.8 Diff. -1.5 0.7 0.7 -0.7 -0.2 Days to anthesis Cultivars Current Gem9 Giza168 Sakha93 Misr1 Average 140 136 136 139 137.8 2030 130 133 133 131 131.8 Diff. -7.1 -2.2 -2.2 -5.8 -4.4 2060 123 124 124 124 123.8 Diff. -12.1 -8.8 -8.8 -10.8 -10.2 2060 130 131 131 131 130.8 Diff. -5.1 -3.0 -3.0 -4.4 -3.9 2060 111 109 109 111 110.0 Diff. -8.3 -7.6 -7.6 -7.5 -7.8

Behera

Giza168 Sakha93 Misr1 Average

Kafr El-Sheikh

Gem9 Giza168 Sakha93 Misr1 Average

137 135 135 137 136.0

Damietta

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Table (6): Simulation of days to physiological maturity for wheat crop using current and future scenarios of rising temperature with increase in SLR at the three different locations.
Days to physiological maturity Cultivars Current Gem9 149 145 145 148 146.8 2030 144 141 141 143 142.3 Diff. -3.4 -2.8 -2.8 -3.4 -3.1 2060 137 135 135 136 135.8 Diff. -8.1 -6.9 -6.9 -8.1 -7.5

Behera

Giza168 Sakha93 Misr1 Average

Days to physiological maturity Cultivars Current 2030 165 166 166 166 165.8 Diff. -1.2 0.0 0.0 -1.2 -0.6 2060 159 160 160 160 159.8 Diff. -4.8 -3.6 -3.6 -4.8 -4.2

Kafr El-Sheikh

Gem9 Giza168 Sakha93 Misr1 Average

167 166 166 168 166.8

Days to physiological maturity Cultivars Current Gem9 Giza168 Sakha93 Misr1 Average 170 167 167 169 168.3 2030 160 163 163 161 161.8 Diff. -5.9 -2.4 -2.4 -4.7 -3.9 2060 153 154 154 154 153.8 Diff. -10.0 -7.8 -7.8 -8.9 -8.6

Damietta

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Table (7): Simulation of yield at harvest maturity for wheat crop using current and future scenarios of rising temperature with increase in SLR at the three different locations.
Yield at harvest maturity Cultivars Current Gem9 1505 1746 1387 1871 1627.3 2030 1095 1267 994 1333 1172.3 (kg ha-1) Diff. -27.2 -27.4 -28.3 -28.8 -28.0 2060 634 683 554 770 660.3 Diff. -57.9 -60.9 -60.1 -58.8 -59.4

Behera

Giza168 Sakha93 Misr1 Average

Yield at harvest maturity Cultivars Current 2030 2864 3292 2857 3290 3075.8 (kg ha-1) Diff. -3.4 -6.3 -6.6 -1.7 -4.5 2060 2357 2743 2333 2732 2541.3 Diff. -20.5 -21.9 -23.7 -18.4 -21.1

Kafr El-Sheikh

Gem9 Giza168 Sakha93 Misr1 Average

2965 3512 3058 3348 3220.8

Yield at harvest maturity Cultivars Current 2030 2082 2332 2035 2305 2188.5 (kg ha-1) Diff. -10.8 -8.0 -10.2 -7.4 -9.0 2060 1915 2145 1916 2142 2029.5 Diff. -18.0 -15.4 -15.4 -13.9 -15.6

Damietta

Gem9 Giza168 Sakha93 Misr1 Average

2335 2534 2265 2488 2405.5

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4.3. Rice crop 4.3.1. Crop model validation

CERES-Rice model was used to quantify variability in rice production and growth at the three locations (Behera, Kafr El-Sheikh and Damietta). The model simulated growth and rice production of eight cultivars (Giza 177, Giza 178, Giza 181, Sakha 101, Sakha 102, Sakha 103, Sakha 104, and Egyptian Yasmine). CERES-RICE model was validated and evaluated for these cultivars at Kafr El-Sheikh Governorate by Khalil (2004), the results showed that acceptable agreement between observed and predicted values and the validation of CERES-Rice model proved to have high accuracy in comparison to measured parameters at Kafr El-Sheikh location. Therefore, the model can be employed in future projection of climate change.

4.3.2. Impact of climate change on rice.

The climate change scenario A1F1 during 2030 and 2060 have been implemented in CERES- Rice model files in order to study effects of future climate changes on rice plant growth and yield. Eight cultivars have been used in this study. These cultivars have been calibrated using previous field experiments in the three different locations. 4.3.2.1 Effects of future climate scenario on number of days to flowering Simulation of rice growth (number of days to flowering) at Behera, Kafr El-Sheikh and Damietta locations under current and future climate change scenario are presented in (Table 8). Results indicated that the climate change scenario (2030 and 2060) will cause a reduction in growing cycle length of rice for all cultivars under study. Reduction will be from 4-6 days required for flowering during 2030 and from 9-13 days during 2060 for all cultivars at three locations. Giza 181, SAKHA 104, and Egyptian Yasmine cultivars will have longer period to flowering than other cultivars with 6 days during 2030 and from 11 to 12 days during 2060 at Behera location. At Kafr El-Sheikh location, Giza 181 and Egyptian Yasmine cultivars will have longer period to flowering than other cultivars with 6 days during 2030 and 11 days during 2060. Giza 181, Sakha 103, Sakha 104, and Egyptian Yasmine cultivars will have longer period to flowering than other cultivars with

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6 days during 2030 and from 12-13 days during 2060 at Damietta location. Greater impacts will be observed by adding climate change scenario during 2060 creating more reduction in period required to flowering days. 4.3.2.2 Differences of future climate scenario effects on number of days to flowering Comparing the reduction in days to flowering at future climate change scenario during 2030 and 2060 showed reduction at 2060 doubled than reduction caused at 2030 at all locations (Figure1). At Behera location, reduction gave a range from -4.9 to -7.5% during 2030 and from -12.3 to -13.9% during 2060. At Kafr El-Sheikh location, reduction gave a range from -6.1 to -6.9% during 2030 and from -12.4 to -15.1% during 2060, while the reduction gave a range from -5.5 to -7.9 during 2030 and from -13.6 to -15.9% during 2060 at Damietta location (Table 8). Giza 178 and Sakha 101 cultivars at Behera location during 2030 gave the lowest reduction -4.9 % in comparison with other cultivars at different locations and Sakha 103 cultivar at Damietta location gave the highest reduction 7.9% in comparison with other cultivars at different locations. During 2060, Sakha 103 cultivar at Behera location gave the lowest reduction -14.3% in comparison with other cultivars and Sakha 104 cultivar at Damietta location gave the highest reduction -15.9% in comparison with other cultivars at different locations.

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Table (8): Changes in number of days to anthesis (flowering) for rice cultivars under current and future climate at Behera, Kafr El-Sheikh and Damietta locations
Cultivars Current GIZA 177 GIZA 178 74 81 88 81 72 73 80 86 79.4 2030 69 77 82 77 67 69 74 80 74.4 Anthesis day Diff. -6.8 -4.9 -6.8 -4.9 -6.9 -5.5 -7.5 -7.0 -6.3 Anthesis day Cultivars Current GIZA 177 75 82 89 82 73 75 81 87 80.5 2030 70 77 83 77 68 70 76 81 75.3 Diff. -6.7 -6.1 -6.7 -6.1 -6.8 -6.7 -6.2 -6.9 -6.5 Anthesis day Cultivars Current GIZA 177 GIZA 178 75 82 89 82 73 75 81 87 80.5 2030 70 77 83 77 68 70 76 81 75.3 Diff. -6.6 -6.0 -6.7 -6.0 -5.5 -7.9 -7.3 -6.8 -6.6 2060 65 71 78 71 62 65 70 76 69.8 Diff. -15.8 -14.5 -14.4 -14.5 -15.1 -15.8 -15.9 -13.6 -14.9 2060 65 71 78 71 62 65 70 76 69.8 Diff. -13.3 -13.4 -12.4 -13.4 -15.1 -13.3 -13.6 -12.6 -13.4 2060 64 70 76 70 62 64 69 75 68.8 Diff. -13.5 -13.6 -13.6 -13.6 -13.9 -12.3 -13.8 -12.8 -13.4

Behera

GIZA 181 SAKHA 101 SAKHA 102 SAKHA 103 SAKHA 104 EGYPTIAN YASMI Average

Kafr El-Sheikh

GIZA 178 GIZA 181 SAKHA 101 SAKHA 102 SAKHA 103 SAKHA 104 EGYPTIAN YASMI Average

Damietta

GIZA 181 SAKHA 101 SAKHA 102 SAKHA 103 SAKHA 104 EGYPTIAN YASMI Average

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Difference percentage during 2030

1.0 -1.0 -3.0 -5.0 -7.0 -9.0 Behera Kafr El-Sheikf Damietta

Difference percentage during 2060

1.0 -1.0 -3.0 -5.0 -7.0 -9.0 -11.0 -13.0 -15.0 -17.0 Behera Kafr El-Sheikf Damietta

Figure (1): Effect of climate change scenario during (2030 and 2060) on number of days to anthesis (flowering) for rice cultivars at studies locations. 4.3.2.3 Effects of future climate scenario on number of days to physiological maturity. Simulation of rice growth (number of days to physiological maturity) at Behera, Kafr El-Sheikh and Damietta locations under current and future climate change scenario are presented in (Table 9). Results indicated that the climate change scenario (2030 and 2060) will cause a reduction in growing cycle length of rice for all cultivars under study. Reduction will be from 5-9 days required for physiological maturity during 2030 and from 12-18 days during 2060 for all cultivars at three locations. Giza 181 cultivar will have
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longer period to physiological maturity than other cultivars with 8 days during 2030 and 16 days during 2060 at Behera location. At Kafr El-Sheikh location, Giza 181, Sakha 101 and Egyptian Yasmine cultivars will have longer period to flowering than other cultivars with 8 days during 2030 and 16 days for Egyptian Yasmine cultivar during 2060. Giza 181 cultivar will have longer period to physiological maturity than other cultivars with 9 days during 2030 and 18 days during 2060 at Damietta location. Greater impacts will be observed by adding climate change scenario during 2060 creating more reduction in period required to physiological maturity days. 4.3.2.4 Differences of future climate scenario effects on number of days to physiological maturity Comparing the reduction in days to physiological maturity days at future climate change scenario during 2030 and 2060 showed reduction at 2060 doubled than reduction caused at 2030 at all locations (Figure2). At Behera location, reduction gave a range from 5.1 to -6.9% during 2030 and from -11.4 to -13.1% during 2060. At Kafr El-Sheikh location, reduction gave a range from -6.0 to -7.0% during 2030 and from -12.2 to -13.1% during 2060, while the reduction gave a range from -5.8 to -7.3 during 2030 and from 12.7 to -14.8% during 2060 at Damietta location (Table9). Sakha 103 cultivar at Behera location gave the lowest reduction -5.1 % in comparison with other cultivars at different locations during 2030 and Giza 181 cultivar at Damietta location gave highest reduction 7.3 % in comparison with other cultivars at different locations. During 2060, Sakha 104 cultivar at Behera location gave the lowest reduction -11.4% in comparison with other cultivars at different locations and Sakha 101 cultivar at Damietta location gave the highest reduction -14.8% in comparison with other cultivars at different locations.

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Table (9): Changes in number of physiological maturity days for rice cultivars under current and future climate at Behera, Kafr El-Sheikh and Damietta locations
Days to physiological maturity Current GIZA 177 GIZA 178 103 115 122 115 102 98 114 120 111.1 2030 97 108 114 108 95 93 107 113 104.4 Diff. -5.8 -6.1 -6.6 -6.1 -6.9 -5.1 -6.1 -5.8 -6.1 2060 90 101 106 100 90 86 101 106 97.5 Diff. -12.6 -12.2 -13.1 -13.0 -11.8 -12.2 -11.4 -11.7 -12.3

Cultivars

Behera

GIZA 181 SAKHA 101 SAKHA 102 SAKHA 103 SAKHA 104 EGYPTIAN YASMI Average Cultivars

Days to physiological maturity Current GIZA 177 104 116 123 116 103 100 116 122 112.5 2030 97 109 115 108 96 93 109 114 105.1 Diff. -6.7 -6.0 -6.5 -6.9 -6.8 -7.0 -6.0 -6.6 -6.6 2060 91 101 108 101 90 87 101 106 98.1 Diff. -12.5 -12.9 -12.2 -12.9 -12.6 -13.0 -12.9 -13.1 -12.8

Kafr El-Sheikh

GIZA 178 GIZA 181 SAKHA 101 SAKHA 102 SAKHA 103 SAKHA 104 EGYPTIAN YASMI Average Cultivars

Days to physiological maturity Current GIZA 177 GIZA 178 103 115 123 115 102 100 116 121 111.9 2030 97 108 114 108 96 93 108 113 104.6 Diff. -5.8 -6.1 -7.3 -6.1 -5.9 -7.0 -6.9 -6.6 -6.5 2060 89 99 105 98 89 86 99 104 96.1 Diff. -13.6 -13.9 -14.6 -14.8 -12.7 -14.0 -14.7 -14.0 -14.0

Damietta

GIZA 181 SAKHA 101 SAKHA 102 SAKHA 103 SAKHA 104 EGYPTIAN YASMI Average

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Difference percentage during 2030

1.0 0.0 -1.0 -2.0 -3.0 -4.0 -5.0 -6.0 -7.0 -8.0 Behera Kafr El-Sheikf Damietta GIZA 177 GIZA 178 GIZA 181 SAKHA 101 SAKHA 102 SAKHA 103 SAKHA 104 EGYPTIAN YASMI

Difference percentage during 2060

1.0 -1.0 -3.0 -5.0 -7.0 -9.0 -11.0 -13.0 -15.0 -17.0 Behera Kafr El-Sheikf Damietta GIZA 177 GIZA 178 GIZA 181 SAKHA 101 SAKHA 102 SAKHA 103 SAKHA 104 EGYPTIAN YASMI

Figure (2): Effect of climate change scenario during (2030 and 2060) on physiological

maturity for rice cultivars at studies locations.

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4.3.2.5 Effects of future climate scenario on grain yield at harvest maturity Simulation of grain yield at Behera, Kafr El-Sheikh and Damietta locations under current and future climate change scenario are presented in (Table10). Results indicated that the climate change scenario (2030 and 2060) will cause a reduction in grain yield of rice for all cultivars under study. Reduction will be from 229 to 939 Kg ha-1 during 2030 and from 477 to 1359 Kg ha-1 during 2060 for all cultivars at three locations. Egyptian Yasmine cultivar gave the lowest grain yield during 2030 and 2060 at all locations and sakha 102 and sakha 103 at Behera location gave the highest grain yield during 2030 and 2060, respectively. At Kafr El-Sheikh location, Giza 178 and sakha 103 cultivars gave the highest grain yield during 2030 and 2060, respectively while Giza 178 and sakha 102 cultivars at Damietta gave the highest grain yield during 2030 and 2060, respectively.

4.3.2.6 Differences of future climate scenario effects on yield at harvest maturity Comparing the reduction in grain yield at climate change scenario during 2030 and 2060 showed reduction at 2060 more than reduction caused at 2030 at all locations (Figure3). At Behera location, reduction gave a range from -5.7 to -20.9% during 2030 and from -17. to -31.8% during 2060. At Kafr El-Sheikh location, reduction gave a range from -8.5 to -20.1% during 2030 and from -14.7 to -30.5% during 2060, while the reduction gave a range from -8.4 to -22.1 during 2030 and from -11.1 to -32.0% during 2060 at Damietta location (Table10). Sakha 101 cultivar at Behera location gave the lowest reduction -5.7 % in comparison with other cultivars at different locations and Giza 181 cultivar at Damietta location gave highest reduction -22.1 % in comparison with other cultivars at different locations during 2030. During 2060, Sakha 102 and Giza 181 cultivars at Damietta location gave lowest and highest reduction -11.1 and -32.0 %, respectively in comparison with other cultivars at different locations.

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Table (10): Changes in grain yield (kg ha-1) for rice cultivars under current and future climate at Behera, Kafr El-Sheikh and Damietta locations
Cultivars Current GIZA 177 GIZA 178 4019 4135 4014 4030 4280 4364 4073 3131 4005.8 2030 3658 3818 3177 3801 3831 3707 3751 2526 3533.6 Yield (kg ha-1) Diff. -9.0 -7.7 -20.9 -5.7 -10.5 -15.1 -7.9 -19.3 -12.0 Yield (kg ha ) Cultivars Current GIZA 177 3986 4162 4075 4103 4253 4408 4112 3229 4041.0 2030 3549 3782 3255 3644 3712 3568 3762 2580 3481.5 Diff. -11.0 -9.1 -20.1 -11.2 -12.7 -19.1 -8.5 -20.1 -14.0 Yield (kg ha-1) Cultivars Current GIZA 177 GIZA 178 4013 4205 4252 4144 4291 4500 4238 3356 4124.9 2030 3676 3823 3313 3756 3729 3691 3820 2635 3555.4 Diff. -8.4 -9.1 -22.1 -9.4 -13.1 -18.0 -9.9 -21.5 -13.9 2060 3503 3521 2893 3388 3814 3659 3453 2344 3321.9 Diff. -12.7 -16.3 -32.0 -18.2 -11.1 -18.7 -18.5 -30.2 -19.7 2060 3399 3347 2832 3338 3329 3525 3345 2251 3170.8 Diff. -14.7 -19.6 -30.5 -18.6 -21.7 -20.0 -18.7 -30.3 -21.8
-1

2060 3351 3371 2737 3274 3405 3386 3380 2255 3144.9

Diff. -16.6 -18.5 -31.8 -18.8 -20.4 -22.4 -17.0 -28.0 -21.7

Behera

GIZA 181 SAKHA 101 SAKHA 102 SAKHA 103 SAKHA 104 EGYPTIAN YASMI Average

Kafr El-Sheikh

GIZA 178 GIZA 181 SAKHA 101 SAKHA 102 SAKHA 103 SAKHA 104 EGYPTIAN YASMI Average

Damietta

GIZA 181 SAKHA 101 SAKHA 102 SAKHA 103 SAKHA 104 EGYPTIAN YASMI Average

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Difference percentage during 2030

1.0 -4.0 -9.0 -14.0 -19.0 -24.0 Behera Kafr El-Sheikf Damietta

Difference percentage during 2060

1.0 -4.0 -9.0 -14.0 -19.0 -24.0 -29.0 -34.0 Behera Kafr El-Sheikf Damietta

Figure (3): Effect of climate change scenario during (2030 and 2060) on grain yield (Kg ha-1) for rice cultivars at studies locations.

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5. Conclusions: Studying impacts of conjunct rise in temperature as a direct impact of sea level rise on growth and productivity of three key cultivated crops (faba bean, wheat, and rice) in coastal Nile delta zone (Behera, Kafr El-Sheikh, and Damietta governorates) gave important remarks for growers. Length of growing cycle for the two grain crops (wheat and rice) will be shortened moving from current conditions and arriving to year 2030 then year 2060. This will give a chance for anticipating the sowing date of such crops in order to avoid negative impacts of future rise in temperature at both spring and summer seasons. This is considered as an adaptation option which should be evaluated in further studies. Moving from current years to year 2030, we found from model simulation that difference in days needed for plants to move from one phonological stage to another was in some cases stable, wheareas in all cases arriving to year 2060 will cause decline in duration needed to complete chronological stages of growing cycle. More reduction in yield for the three crops under study was observed by arriving to year 2060 for almost all locations considered under this study. Reduction in yield at year 2030 will be lower than in year 2060 but such reduction can be avoided by changing the sowing date as an adaptation option, in addition to choosing optimum variety/varieties with highest productivity for each area. Difference between current (season 2009/2010) and predicted under climate change was decreased gradually from -8.77 to -21.65% for years 2030 and 2060 is estimated. Comparing average differences for wheat grain yield between current and both future years for Behera, Kafr ElSheikh, and Damietta locations showed that 2030 will be different with -28, -4.5 and -9, respectively, than current yield and 2060 will be different with -59.4, -21.1 and -15.6, respectively, than current yield.

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Comparing average differences for rice grain yield between current and both future years for Behera, Kafr El-Sheikh, and Damietta locations showed that: at Behera location, reduction gave a range from -5.7 to -20.9% during 2030 and from -17. to -31.8% during 2060, whereas at Kafr El-Sheikh location, reduction gave a range from -8.5 to -20.1% during 2030 and from -14.7 to -30.5% during 2060, while the reduction gave a range from -8.4 to -22.1 during 2030 and from -11.1 to -32.0% during 2060 at Damietta location. These reduction ranges should be taken into consideration when we are speaking about adaptation cost and strategy.

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