FOOD AND AGRICULTURE ORGANIZATION

OF THE UNITED NATIONS

TECHNICAL COOPERATION PROGRAMME




Arab Republic of Egypt



TCP/EGY/3301 (D)





Monitoring of Climate Change Risk Impacts of Sea Level Rise on
Groundwater and Agriculture in the Nile Delta







Final Report

National Consultant: Hydro-geologist

Ibrahim Elshinnawy



(March 2013)

2

Table of Contents
Background ............................................................................................................................... 4
Introductory remarks ................................................................................................................ 4
Chapter I .................................................................................................................................... 9
Baseline Data of the Nile Delta ................................................................................................ 9
1.1 Study Area ........................................................................................................................... 9
1.2 Climate Conditions ........................................................................................................ 10
1.3 Topography and Geomorphology.................................................................................... 10
1.4 Land Use in the Nile Delta Region ................................................................................... 11
1.5 Geology of the Nile Delta Region ..................................................................................... 12
1.5.1 Geologic Setting of the Nile Delta Region ............................................................ 12
1.6 Hydrogeology of the Nile Delta Region ........................................................................... 15
1.6.1 Aquifer Geometry .................................................................................................. 15
1.6.2 Irrigation Drainage Network in the Nile Delta Region ...................................... 15
1.6.3 Groundwater Aquifer Systems in the Nile Delta Region ...................................... 17
1.6.4 Recharge-Discharge Sources of the Nile Delta Aquifer ........................................ 18
1.6.5 Groundwater Levels in the Nile Delta Aquifer ..................................................... 19
1.6.6 Groundwater Use in the Nile Delta ....................................................................... 20
1.6.7 Hydro-geochemistry of the Nile Delta Aquifer ..................................................... 22
Chapter II ................................................................................................................................. 25
Sea Water Intrusion in the Nile Delta Aquifer ....................................................................... 25
2.1 Sea Water Intrusion Phenomenon ................................................................................ 25
2.2 Modeling Freshwater-Saltwater Interface ..................................................................... 26
Ghyben-Herzberg Principle ....................................................................................................... 26
Hubbert Theory of the Dynamics of Saltwater-Freshwater Interfaces ...................................... 27
Glover Formula of the Dynamics of Freshwater ....................................................................... 28
Henrys Model to Describe the Mixing Process between Freshwater and Saltwater in
Coastal Aquifers. ....................................................................................................................... 29
Numerical Models of sea water intrusion .................................................................................. 29
Chapter III ................................................................................................................................ 35
3.1 Introduction: ................................................................................................................... 35
3.2 Statistical Analyses for Tide Gauges Data and Land Subsidence .............................. 35
3.3 Expected Sea Level Rise till 2100 ................................................................................. 35
3.4 Vulnerability Assessment .............................................................................................. 36
VA Methodology ....................................................................................................................... 36
Results 37
CoRI scenario ............................................................................................................................ 37
B1 Scenario ............................................................................................................................... 37
A1F1 Scenario ........................................................................................................................... 37
Chapter IV ................................................................................................................................ 39
4 Impact of Sea Level Rise on the Coastal Aquifer of Nile Delta ................................... 39
4.1 Theory of Sea Water Intrusion ...................................................................................... 39
4.2 Saltwater/Freshwater Interface Dynamics ..................................................................... 39
Ghyben-Herzberg Formula ........................................................................................................ 39
Glover Solution ......................................................................................................................... 41
4.3 Sharp Interface Numerical Model ................................................................................. 41
4.4 Results and analysis for a pilot area within the Study Area .......................................... 42
4.5 Remarks on results: ....................................................................................................... 46
3
4.6 Conclusion ..................................................................................................................... 47
Chapter V ................................................................................................................................. 49
5.1 Locations of the observation wells ...................................................................................... 49
5.2 Background Monitoring ..................................................................................................... 49
5.3 Monitoring for Specific Land-Use Impacts on Ground-Water Quality ............................. 50
5.3.1 Selection of Groundwater-Quality Indicators................................................................ 50
5.3.2 Criteria for Indicator Selection .................................................................................. 51
5.3.3 Monitoring chloride to determine the extent of saltwater intrusion...................... 52
5.3.4 Real-time, long-term monitoring of chloride concentration .................................. 53
5.4 Numerical modeling: .......................................................................................................... 54



4
Background
Introductory remarks
The project started on October 1st, 2010, with a total duration of 24 months, i.e.
project closure date is September 30, 2012. While the effective start of project
activities has seen some important delays for several reasons that might first of all
be attributed to setting up the rather complex institutional and project management
arrangements, there can be no doubt that subsequent implementation of the
projects key activities was severely affected by the January / February 2011
revolution and the ensuing deep political crises and turmoil, generally leading to a
climate of insecurity as well as frequent changes at key management and
decision-making levels in almost all Government institutions, including Ministry of
Agriculture and Land Reclemation (MALR) and Agriculture Research Center
(ARC).

The project inception workshop was held on December 26, 2011, i.e. almost 15
months after project start, bringing together a total of 58 participants and key
resource persons, mostly from MALR and its various entities and few
representatives from Ministry of Water Resources and Irrigation (MWRI) and other
specialized institutions.

However, soil and water monitoring activities carried out by Soil, Water and
Environment Research Institute (SWERI) started in June 2011 and so far
represent the projects most important activity with respect to the main project
objective of improving the current knowledge base on the potential impacts of Sea
Level Rise (SLR) and saltwater intrusion on groundwater tables as well as
groundwater and soil salinity in the coastal area of the Nile Delta.

Soil and water monitoring by SWERI

Carrying out the soil and water monitoring activities has been assigned to SWERI
on the basis of 2 letters of agreement (LoA) signed to this effect with the FAO
Regional Office:

LoA 1: Installation of a total of 75 bathometers (or observation wells) to monitor
groundwater levels as well as water and soil quality in the coastal belt extending
from Alexandria to Port Said. This activity was successfully completed in June
2011. It should be noted that in the meantime, SWERI using its own budget has
added approximately 30 bathometers with a view of increasing the sample size
(see figure A.1 on the following page).

LoA 2: Monitoring and data collection for the following parameters: groundwater
depth / depth-to-water table; ground water salinity, and soil salinity. Data collection
started immediately after having completed the installation of the 75 bathometers

Groundwater monitoring is done on a bi-weekly basis for 2 parameters: (1)
groundwater depth / depth to water table; and (2) water salinity (restricted however
to measuring only electrical conductivity (Ec), without analyzing salt composition
and especially sodium contents). The first monitoring period extended over 5
months from June to October 2011. Data analysis has been completed, raw data
5
sets are available and results have been presented mainly in a map format (see
figures A.2 and A.3 as examples for the results observed on June 15th, 2011, for
both groundwater salinity and depth-to-water table).



Source: SWERI / Dr. Mohamed Ismail, The relation among sea level rise, groundwater table and
salinization of soils and groundwater. Presentation given at the project inception workshop.

Figure A.1: Location of the SWERI soil and water monitoring sites

Source: SWERI / Dr. Mohamed Ismail, The relation among sea level rise, groundwater table and
salinization of soils and groundwater. Presentation given at the project inception workshop.

Figure A. 2: Groundwater salinity-SWERI soil and water monitoring sites
(15(6/2012)
6

Source: SWERI / Dr. Mohamed Ismail, The relation among sea level rise, groundwater table and
salinization of soils and groundwater. Presentation given at the project inception workshop.

Figure A.3: Depth-to-water table - SWERI soil and water monitoring sites
(15/6/2012)

It should be noted that at project start and prior to embarking upon the SWERI soil
and water monitoring activities, no comprehensive conceptual framework has
been developed on the potential impacts of SLR and salt water intrusion on
groundwater tables, water and soil salinity and irrigated agriculture. There is no
doubt that a proper understanding of these very complex interactions and its
underlying cause-effect- relationships can only be achieved on the basis of an
integrated and multi-disciplinary approach. Accordingly, the development of the
conceptual framework have required bringing together specialized key resource
persons from all relevant disciplines and institutions, both within MALR and from
outside, particularly the various research institutes established under the National
Water Research Center (NWRC) of MWRI such as Ground Water Research
Institute (GWRI), Coastal Research Institute (CoRI), Drainage Research Institute
(DRI), and Environmental & Climate Research Institute (ECRI) etc.
As indicated, the main preparatory project activity concerning the in-depth review
of all previous work done on the potential impacts of SLR and saltwater intrusion
in the Nile Delta could not be successfully. As a direct consequence, the design of
the soil and water monitoring activities assigned to SWERI did not benefit from
such a systematic review. For this design, the results and experiences already
available, particularly with respect to methodological issues of data collection and
analysis, including the appropriate selection of monitoring sites, seem to have
been hardly taken into consideration and obviously did not sufficiently guide this
research process.
It is also worth mentioning that the national hydro-geologist consultant (Prof.
Ibrahim Abd El Magid El Shinnawy, Director of CoRI) and the national CC
consultant (Prof. Mohamed El Raey, Institute of Graduate Studies and Research,
Centre for Climate Change and Risk Reduction, University of Alexandria) have
only been recruited when the soil and water monitoring activities of SWERI had
7
already started. Consequently, both specialists have not been consulted and
associated for identifying the final selection criteria of the monitoring sites.
Following the discussions that the international CC consultant had in the course of
his first mission with the national hydrology consultant, the national consultant CC,
as well as other key resource persons from DRI and ECRI, has concluded that,
based on the current research design, the soil and water monitoring activities of
SWERI will most probably not provide the data and results that are urgently
needed for improving the current knowledge base on the interaction of SLR,
saltwater intrusion, water and soil salinity and agricultural production / productivity.
Furthermore, these data will definitely not be sufficient for successfully carrying out
groundwater modelling and simulation activities as envisaged under the project as
long as these are not completed and correlated with other relevant data.

Project Outputs
The expected outcome of the project is to elaborate a comprehensive monitoring
system able to generate sound forecasts of SLR impacts resulting from CC on soil
and groundwater in the Nile Delta to serve as a decision-support (information)
system for mitigating/adapting to such impacts on the environment, agriculture and
population. More specifically, the following outputs are expected from the project:
- CC impact monitoring sites (for soil and groundwater) identified, observation
wells installed, and geo-referenced;
- likely impacts of SLR on groundwater table, and soil and groundwater
quality known;
- action-oriented information system for predicting the likely impacts and
adaptation measures of CC along the coastal areas of the Nile Delta
established.
The main project inputs to be provided through the contribution of FAO mainly
comprise the mobilization of specialized consulting services, through the
recruitment of international as well as national short-term consultants.

ToR for National Hydro-geologist Consultant

The consultant will perform the following duties and responsibilities:

1. Advise and assist the experts of the implementing institutions in the knowledge
base study to collect data on changes in SLR, groundwater table, and
salinazation of soil and groundwater along the coastal area of the Nile Delta,
2. Assess local conditions in the envisaged sites where the monitoring and data
collection activities would be operational,
3. Work closely with GIS/RS expert and provide technical inputs in the selection
of representative sampling areas for monitoring groundwater tables, and soil
and groundwater salinity levels.
4. Work closely with GIS/RS expert and climate change experts to collect
historical data on soil and groundwater and other geophysical/geological data
necessary for building groundwater and soil models.
5. Undertake calibration and validation of groundwater and soil models for local
conditions
8
6. Work closely with the Statistician/Simulation Specialist and CC Experts and
conduct the simulation of the likely impacts of SLR on groundwater table and
soil and groundwater salinization.
7. Run calibrated and validated groundwater model and soil model with potential
SLR scenarios to assess possible future CC impacts (groundwater table and
salinity) in the coastal area of the Nile Delta.
8. Provide technical assistance in the selection of sites and network installation
points,
9. Check the operation of the observation wells once installed.
10. Act as a resource person for relevant components of national workshops.

Undertake any other duty related to the post that may be assigned by the FAO
Representative/Egypt and direct technical supervisor.

Comments on the ToR

- Regarding responsibilities 1 and 2; According to previous explanation the
consultant has been recruited after the implementation of the observation
system that does not represent the data needed to achieve the project main
objective.

- Regarding responsibilities 3; Institutional setup did not work in an integrated
approach since the beginning of the project to facilitate the cooperation
process needed between the consultant and GIS/RS consultant.

- Regarding responsibilities 4; Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) was
initiated by the consultant between Agriculture Research Center (ARC) and
National Water Research Center (NWRC) to integrate efforts of both
institutions for the purpose of achieving the project objective.

Expected Outputs:

Brief inception technical report indicating the workplan, parameters data that will
be measured / collected, methodology, etc.and an end of assignment technical
report on the activities performed and the results achieved.

Note

Most of the background material is cited from the first mission report presented by
Blanken J., 2012.









9
Chapter I

Baseline Data of the Nile Delta


1.1 Study Area

The area under investigation lies between longitudes 30
0
00

and 32
0
30

East and
latitude 30
0
00

and 32
0
00

North as shown in Figure (1.1). It covers an area of
31,000 km
2
in the Northern Region of Egypt. The area is bounded by the
Mediterranean Sea in the North, the apex of the Delta in the South, the Suez
Canal in the East and Wadi El-Natrun fault in the West. The two branches of the
Nile River form a triangle with its base along the Mediterranean Sea in the North
and the apex at the Delta Barrage in the South.








Figure (1.1) Location Map of the Study Area



10
1.2 Climate Conditions

The study area is located in an arid climate region with an annual rainfall
ranging from 25 mm in the South of the Delta to a maximum value of 200 mm in
the North along the Mediterranean Sea. The low values of rainfall do not
contribute by any means to the aquifer recharge within the study area. The
maximum temperature in the Delta area ranges between 26 and 34
0
C and
minimum temperature between 6 and 13
0
C. The annual mean values for
relative humidity in the morning and the evening are between 60 % and 80 %
respectively.

1.3 Topography and Geomorphology

The Nile Delta region is a morphotectonic depression open to the Mediterranean
Sea in the North. The Nile enters the Delta 20 km north of Cairo, where it is
divided into two branches, Rosetta in the West and Damietta in the East. The
Delta region is bounded from the East and Southeast by two main watershed
areas rising to more than 500 meters above mean sea level. To the West, the
watershed is less developed morphologically, being only 100 meters above
mean sea level. The geomorphologic features of the Nile Delta region are
shown in Figure (1.2) and are discussed below in details:

1.3.1 The Foreshore Plain

The foreshore plain occupies the area determined by the coastal lakes and
their inland extension into brackish water lagoons. Landforms existing in that
plain include the wetland areas of the main lakes and the sabkhas.

1.3.2 The Old Coastal Plain

The old coastal plain occupies a portion of the Northwest corner of the Nile
Delta depression and may be a remnant of the offshore plain, which was
submerged in early Holocene times.

1.3.3 The Young Alluvial Plains

The Young Alluvial Plains dominate the cultivated lands bordering the
channel of the Nile River and its two branches. These plains cover most of
the Nile Delta Region (Shata and El-Fayoumy 1969). The irrigation canals
and drains break through these plains. The ground surface elevation ranges
between 18 meters above mean sea level (msl) in the South to about 5
meters near Tanta sloping gently in the Northward direction by an average
value of 10 cm/km (Saleh 1980). Furthermore, the Nile Delta slopes also from
East to West making Damietta Branch higher in elevation than Rosetta
Branch by about three meters. The area is generally flat and covered by
Recent and Quaternary sediments that were formed from the disintegrated
igneous and metamorphic rocks of the Ethiopian Plateau and South of
Sudan. These sediments were transported by the Nile River and its tributaries
to the Delta during the flood seasons for more than 10,000 years. The old and
traditionally cultivated lands are dominant in these areas.
11

Figure (1.2) Geomorphologic Units for the Nile Delta Region

1.3.4 The Old Alluvial Plains

The old alluvial plains are present along both sides of the Nile Delta and are
exposed at various heights above the young alluvial plains. They occupy the
areas on the Eastern and Western fringes of the Nile Delta. The surface of
this plain is gently undulating and displays classical examples of landforms by
wind deflation. The surface is also incised by the downstream portions of a
good number of dry channels (wadis), which acted as active rivers in Middle
Pleistocene.

1.4 Land Use in the Nile Delta Region

The Nile Delta Region is divided into three sub-regions with respect to the two
Nile Branches, Damietta and Rosetta. These sub regions are mainly the
Western Delta, the Middle Delta and the Eastern Delta. As shown in Figure
(1.3), the Nile Delta can be distinguished into three main regions with respect
to land use: (i) the agricultural land; (ii) the wetland; and (iii) the desert. The
agricultural land includes the traditionally cultivated areas and the newly
reclaimed areas. The wetland portion includes the coastal lakes and the
marshlands. The desert portion borders the Nile Delta from both east and west
sides. Geographically, the traditional cultivated lands are predominated in the
Middle Delta while, the reclaimed lands are present in the Eastern and Western
Fringes of the Nile Delta. Surface water, groundwater or conjunctive use of
irrigation water is applied when appropriate. Many towns and villages and some
industrial zones are scattered in the Delta with an extensive population.

12



Figure (1.3) Land Use Map for the Nile Delta Region


1.5 Geology of the Nile Delta Region

1.5.1 Geologic Setting of the Nile Delta Region

Schlumberger (1984) published a generalized litho-stratigraphic column of the
Nile Delta as shown in Figure (1.4). Deep drilling in the Nile Delta Region
revealed a very thick sedimentary succession. The litho-stratigraphic cross
sections in the Nile Delta are shown in Figure (1.5). There are two main
geological units in the Nile Delta region which are:

(1) The Quaternary deposits that include the Holocene and Pleistocene
sediments. The Holocene comprises sand dunes, coastal deposits,
sabkha deposits and silty clay sediments capping the flood plain. The
Pleistocene comprises desert crusts, kurkar ridges and the graded sand
and gravel that contain the main water bearing formation. The thickness
of the Quaternary aquifer is about 100 m at Cairo, reaches to 1000m at
the coast, and decreases to zero to the east and west of the Nile Delta
fringes. Figure (1.6) shows the contour lines of the base of the
Quaternary aquifer relative to the mean sea level, RIGW (1980)

(2) The Tertiary deposits include the Pliocene, the Miocene, the Oligocene,
the Eocene and the Paleocene sediments. The Pliocene forms the lower
13
boundary of the main water bearing formation. The Miocene deposits
(e.g. the Moghra) exist underneath the surface with thickness that
reaches up to 2000 meters. The Oligocene and Eocene are of a little
hydrogeological interest due to their small contribution to groundwater.







Figure (1.4) The Litho-Stratigraphic Column in the Nile Delta Region.




14


Figure (1.5) Geological Cross Sections in the Nile Delta Region, RIGW (1992)

15



Figure (1.6) Contour Map of the Base of the Quaternary Aquifer Relative to the Mean
Sea Level, RIGW (1980)


1.6 Hydrogeology of the Nile Delta Region

1.6.1 Aquifer Geometry

The hydrogeologic investigation of the Nile Delta aquifer revealed the
existence of well-defined hydraulic boundaries that delimit the aquifer
geometry. As shown in Figure (1.7), the aquifer is bounded by the
Mediterranean Sea in the North and the Suez Canal in the East. Ismailia
Canal in the South East is considered as the limiting boundary of the aquifer
while in the West and South West, Wadi-El-Natrun Fault represents another
distinct boundary of the aquifer. In the vertical dimension, the Nile Delta
aquifer has variable thicknesses as shown earlier in Figure (1.6).


1.6.2 Irrigation Drainage Network in the Nile Delta Region

The Nile River represents an outstanding feature that has shaped not only
the physical characteristics of the area but also its history and the nature of
its settlers. The water resources in the Nile Delta consist of complex irrigation

16
and drainage networks which are hydraulically connected to the underlying
aquifer system. The Damietta and Rosetta branches of the Nile River, the
irrigation system and drains are formed through the area. These hydraulic
features are generally directed to the natural discharging areas where the
Northern lakes and the Mediterranean Sea. The surface water levels in the
Nile River and its irrigation canals are controlled by the Delta Barrages and
the other hydraulic control structures scattered everywhere. At the tail ends
of the two branches, hydraulic dams were constructed to prevent the flow of
the salt water from the Mediterranean Sea to the Nile River.

Since the construction of the Aswan High Dam (AHD), the flow rates in the
irrigation system vary according to the variable water demand. This water
demand does not change significantly from year to year unless new
expansion projects are being implemented. During the low flood periods,
there is a chance to have less flow in the Nile River and hence the water
levels in all the irrigation-drainage system are affected. The great barrages
built on the Nile are controlling the surface water levels in the Nile branches
and the irrigation canals. The lands of the delta were converted to perennial
irrigation at the beginning of the last century.






Figure (1.7): Configuration of Aquifer Systems in the Nile Delta Region.

17
Open drains are extensively constructed in the Nile Delta region and used
principally to drain excess irrigation water. Nowadays, most of the Nile Delta
lands are served by tile drains to improve the agricultural drainage. These tile
drains are constructed at a depth of 1.5 meters below ground surface. Near
the coastal line, the water levels in the open drains are less than the sea
level. Therefore, water has to be discharged mechanically to the Northern
lakes or directly to the Mediterranean Sea.


1.6.3 Groundwater Aquifer Systems in the Nile Delta Region

On the basis of geomorphology, the hydrogeological and hydrochemical
features of the Nile Delta region is divided into three major regions which are:
the flood plain (area of 9,126 km
2
), Eastern Nile Delta fringes (area of 10,220
km
2
) and the Western Nile Delta fringes (area of 11,042 km
2
). There are
different groundwater aquifers with different importance for exploitation in the
Nile Delta region. These aquifers are the semi-confined Quaternary aquifer,
phreatic sandy aquifer, Pliocene aquifer, Moghra aquifer, and sand dunes
aquifer as shown in Figure (1.7). Previous studies revealed that there an
inter-aquifer flow, accordingly this section covers briefly all aquifer systems in
the Nile Delta region.

The Moghra aquifer is located in the Western Delta region. It has an area of
about 50,000 km
2
. The aquifer consists of Lower Miocene sand and gravel.
The aquifer is found in the west of Wadi El-Natrun and extends towards the
Qattara Depression. The aquifer is phreatic south of latitude 30 N, but
confined by Pliocene deposits in the northern direction. Oligocene rocks
(basalts or shales) underlie the Moghra aquifer. The base of the Moghra
aquifer slopes from ground level near Cairo to 100 meters above sea level
near Burg El-Arab area, to the west of Alexandria. The saturated thickness
ranges from 70 to 700 meter (RIGW, 1990). The groundwater flow in the
Moghra aquifer is generally directed westward, towards the Qattara
Depression. Inter-aquifer flow is a minor component of recharge, which
occurs from the Nile Delta towards the Moghra and Pliocene aquifers. The
groundwater salinity is classified as brackish with a maximum value of 7,000
ppm. The salinity values increase from very low in Wadi El-Farigh to high in
the North and Western part. West of Wadi El-Natrun, the groundwater quality
is brackish. The potentiality of Moghra aquifer varies between low and
moderate (RIGW, 1998).

The Pliocene aquifer is present in Wadi El-Natrun depression. The aquifer is
considered a local low productive aquifer. It is a multi-layered aquifer
consisting of an alternation of sand and clayey layers belonging to the
Pliocene age. The aquifer is underlain by the Moghra aquifer but separated
from it by layers of lower Pliocene age. In this area, the groundwater is
discharged through a great number of seepage zones into small lakes,

18
ponds. Groundwater is lost by direct evaporation with an annual rate of 70
million m
3
(RIGW, 1998).

The most important regional aquifer in the Nile Delta is the Quaternary
aquifer. This aquifer consists of Pleistocene graded sand and gravel,
changing to fine and clayey facies in the North. The aquifer is found along
the entire Nile Delta flood plain. The clay cap of the Nile aquifer is a semi-
confining layer and has a thickness up to 20 meters. The Nile Delta aquifer is
underlain by Pliocene marine clay in the Central Delta and wedges out
towards the fringes.

Data were collected and interpreted to outline the hydrogeological environment
of the Nile Delta groundwater aquifer. Simplified latitudinal and longitudinal
hydrogeological cross sections, representing the Nile Delta aquifer were
developed as shown in Figure (1.8). According to these cross sections, the
hydrogeological units of interest in studying the Nile Delta aquifer are as
follows:

(a) Top unit of Holocene clay aquitard;
(b) Quaternary and late Tertiary gravels and sands unit (aquifer);
(c) Basal unit of Pliocene clay aquiclude.


1.6.4 Recharge-Discharge Sources of the Nile Delta Aquifer
1.6.4.1 Aquifer Recharge

The Nile Delta aquifer in the flood plain is continuously recharged by
irrigation water in the southern and central portions. Therefore, the
aquifer acts as a storage reservoir that can be used conjunctively with
the other surface water supplies. Recharge of groundwater is taking
place in the Nile Delta area by three processes: (1) Infiltration of
rainfall; (2) Downward leakage of the excess irrigation and seepage
from the Nile River, irrigation canals and drains and Inter-aquifer flow
of groundwater.

Recharge of the Nile Delta aquifer occurs mainly through direct seepage
from the irrigation canals and drains. In the central and southern parts of
the Nile Delta floodplain, the downward leakage towards the aquifer
varies between 0.25 and 0.80 mm /day (DRI, 1989). In the desert
fringes, high leakage rates of 1-2.5 mm/day are recorded for basin
irrigation whereas low rates of 0.1-0.5 mm/day are occurring for drip
irrigation (RIGW, 1991).
1.6.4.2 Aquifer Discharge

Discharge of groundwater takes place by four components: outflow into

19
the drainage system, direct evaporation, extraction and inter-aquifer flow
of groundwater.

Groundwater discharge to the drainage system occurs in the northern
portions of the Delta through upward seepage with a daily rate of 0.2-0.9
mm/day (DRI, 1989). Discharge of groundwater through evaporation
may occur in low-lying areas with a shallow groundwater table. In Wadi
El Natrun depression, lakes and sabkhas, groundwater is discharged
naturally by evaporation.

Inter-aquifer flow is a minor component of discharge, which occurs
between the Nile Delta aquifer on one hand and the Moghra aquifer and
the Wadi El Natrun aquifer on the other hand. The total amounts of
groundwater flowing from the Nile Delta to the Moghra aquifer is
estimated to vary between 50 and 106 million m
3
/year (RIGW, 1990).
Groundwater extraction from the Nile Delta aquifer will be presented in a
subsequent section.



Figure (1.8) Hydrogeological Cross Section in the Nile Delta Area.


1.6.5 Groundwater Levels in the Nile Delta Aquifer
1.6.5.1 Depth to Groundwater Surface

The depth to groundwater surface depends mainly on the ground surface
elevation at a particular point. The field survey indicates that the depth to the
groundwater surface is less than 5 m in most of the Nile Delta region and
reaches to less than 1m near the coast, Figure (1.9). It is obvious from the
map that the depth to groundwater decreases northward and Northeast. As a
Holoce
ne
Quaternary Basal

20
result, water logging problems are encountered in such areas. In the Nile
Delta Fringes, the depth to groundwater increases to more than 50 meters
due to high topography in these areas.
1.6.5.2 Fluctuations of the Piezometric Heads

Groundwater levels in the Nile Delta aquifer fluctuate in response to the
stage of the Nile River, aquifer recharge from excess irrigation water and
groundwater pumping. Since the construction of the High Aswan Dam, it
was observed that the piezometric head increased within the Nile Delta
aquifer. The agriculture projects that rely on the groundwater resources
caused a severe decline in the piezometric head as noticed in the delta
fringes. On the contrary, the agriculture projects that depend on the Nile
water caused an increase in the water table and the development of water
mounds at some localities.
The piezometric head map for year 2002, Figure (1.10), shows that the
groundwater level decreases gradually towards the North and Northeast
direction with an average gradient of 11 cm/km. The groundwater head
decreases from 15 meters at Cairo to less than one meter near the
Mediterranean coast.

1.6.6 Groundwater Use in the Nile Delta

Before the construction of the High Aswan Dam, groundwater in the Nile
Delta was used to supplement irrigation water at the tail ends of the
irrigation canals in the coastal zones. In 1957, the first well inventory was
launched and revealed that a total of 0.2 billion cubic meters was pumped
annually from the aquifer through 5600 wells, GWRI (1966). It was reported
that most of the production wells are 70 meters deep and the screen length
ranges between 20 and 30 meters. Shallow wells operated by hand pumps
are still extensively used for domestic purposes especially in the rural
communities of the Nile Delta. Freshwater outflow to the sea was
calculated and it was found that a total of 0.37 billion cubic meters was
flowing directly to the sea in 1958 compared to 0.283 billion cubic meters in
1962. The reduction in the outflow of the freshwater was referred to as the
illegal drilling of new wells by farmers. For coastal aquifers such as the Nile
Delta, such freshwater outflow to the sea is required to keep the balance of
the interface between the saltwater and the freshwater.

In 1980 an extensive study was conducted to evaluate the safe yield of the
Nile Delta aquifer, RIGW (1980). It was reported that the total annual
extraction rate from the aquifer was 1.6 billion cubic meters while the net
recharge rate to the aquifer from the Nile River and the irrigation canals
was 2.645 billion cubic meters. The annual outflow of freshwater to the sea
was estimated as 97 million cubic meters. Despite the reduction in the
outflow to the sea and the increase in the groundwater extraction, the
chemical analysis of the groundwater did not show significant increase in

21
the salinity level. This concluded the fact that the saltwater and freshwater
were in dynamic equilibrium. The study recommended increasing the
annual extraction by 500 million cubic meters to lower the piezometric
surface to a level that prevents water logging and soil salinization. This
recommendation was based on the results of a two-dimensional finite
difference model that did not account for the seawater intrusion
phenomenon.

In 1991, the total annual groundwater extraction from the Nile Delta aquifer
was 2.77 billion cubic meters, RIGW (1992). The total number of wells was
13,000 compared to 5,600 wells in 1958. In 1997, the annual groundwater
extraction was reported as 0.86, 1.6 and 0.56 billion cubic meters for the
Western, Middle and Eastern Nile Delta region respectively, Hefny (1998).
In 2003, the annual extraction rate was 0.9, 2.0 and 0.6 for the three
regions of the Delta, RIGW (2004). From the above, it is obvious that since
1981 the groundwater extraction is increasing annually in a linear fashion
by 0.1 billion cubic meters.





Figure (1.10) Depth to Groundwater in the Quaternary Aquifer, (RIGW, 2002)




22




Figure (1.11) Piezometric Head Map of the Quaternary Aquifer (RIGW, 2002)


1.6.7 Hydro-geochemistry of the Nile Delta Aquifer

1.6.7.1 Groundwater Origins

The main source of groundwater in Nile Delta aquifer is the Nile, which
flows from the Ethiopian Plateau. Therefore, the groundwater is of
meteoric origin. The meteoric water of Pleistocene sediments covers all
Delta except the coastal area up to N 31
0
00
\
which occupied by saline
water of marine origin coming from either the Mediterranean Sea or
from the old marine deep aquifers. In the Miocene aquifer of the
Western Delta, the groundwater is of meteoric origin whereas the same
aquifer in eastern Delta is of marine origin as well. The groundwater of
Pliocene aquifer in Wadi El Natrun is of marine origin.

Groundwater of old marine origin was observed in areas with old active
tectonic movements ascending along fault plains in the northern Delta,
southeastern fringe and in the northwestern fringe. This type of
groundwater is characterized by the considerable presence of CaCl
2
.
Old meteoric groundwater was observed along the old passages of Nile
tributaries in the eastern and western fringes. This type of groundwater
is characterized by the presence of Na
2
SO
4
.

23

1.6.7.2 Groundwater Types in the Nile Delta Aquifer

The water type is classified according to the chemical composition and
the hydrochemical process encountered in the aquifer. Figure (1.11)
shows the different water type zones in the Nile Delta aquifer. In the
Southern part of the Nile Delta (Pleistocene and Moghra aquifer) fresh
Ca (HCO
3
)
2
and Mg (HCO
3
)
2
groundwater types are found. The
chemical composition and the hydrochemical process indicate that
groundwater replenishment is taking place as a result of the continuous
recharge of the aquifer by excess irrigation water.

To the Northwest, North and East part of the Nile Delta, zones of fresh,
brackish Na HCO
3
and Na-mix water type are present. Refreshing of the
aquifer is taking place as a result of the downward seepage of irrigation
water. More to the North and in Eastward and West direction a zone
with NaCl type groundwater is found. In this zone the groundwater is
brackish to saline, but to some extent the aquifer is still flushed by
freshwater. Near the coast NaCl to sea water type is found, indicating
that the groundwater is invaded by the saline water from the
Mediterranean Sea or affected by the saline groundwater flowing
upward from the deeper aquifers.

The present water type distribution in the Northern Nile Delta has been
affected by the encountered shift of shoreline 20,000 years ago. At this
time, the shoreline was at 125 meters below its present level and
located about 50 km north of the present coast. During this period of
time, the coastal region was formed of saline lagoons and depressions.
Following this period, around 10,000 years ago, a rapid sea level rise
and a southward movement of the shoreline occurred. Later, the rate of
sea level rise started to decline and the Holocene clay cap started to
accumulate as an overbank deposit of the Nile River system. As a result
of the Holocene deposits and its depositional evolution, the salinity
distribution in the Northern Delta is highly variable and complex (RIGW,
1999).

The following chapter will discuss the sea water intrusion in the Nile
Delta aquifer. The discussion will include a brief description for the sea
water intrusion phenomenon in the coastal aquifers, a presentation of
the baseline data related to the sea water intrusion, and the previous
studies and new research for simulating the Nile Delta aquifer system.



24



Figure (1.11) Groundwater Type in the Quaternary Aquifer (RIGW, 2002)


25

Chapter II

Sea Water Intrusion in the Nile Delta Aquifer


2.1 Sea Water Intrusion Phenomenon

In coastal aquifers, the general class of groundwater systems consists of a
saturated porous medium containing a miscible fluid of variable density. In such
systems, the denser saltwater tends to remain separated from the overlying
freshwater. However, a zone of mixing known as the transition or dispersion
zone is formed between the two fluids. Cooper 1959 hypothesized that where a
zone of dispersion exists between the saltwater and freshwater, the saltwater is
not static but flows in a cycle from the floor of the sea to the zone of dispersion
and back to the sea, Figure (2.1).




Figure (2.1) Hypothetical Cross Section Showing the Zone of Dispersion and Flow
Patterns in a Coastal Aquifer, (Reilly, T. and Goodman, A., 1985)

The shape and movement of the mixing zone between the two fluids is governed
by the hydrodynamic balance of the fresh and saltwater. Theoretically, the
interface between fresh and saltwater bodies in an intruded aquifer represents a
flow line, which implies no flow across the surface. However, reality has shown
that the interface normally consists of narrow mixing zones. The zones are
resulted from some or from all of the following process: (1) the hydrodynamic
dispersion occurring in porous media; (2) the molecular diffusion; (3) seasonal

26
water table fluctuation and (4) fluctuation in the sea level as a result of the tide
effects.


2.2 Modeling Freshwater-Saltwater Interface

Ghyben-Herzberg Principle

Two European scientists Badon Ghyben and Herzberg in the late 1800s
discovered that saline water occurred underground at a depth
approximately 40 times the height of freshwater above sea level (Reilly
and Goodman, 1985). This phenomenon is attributed to a hydrostatic
equilibrium existing between two fluids having different densities. The
equation derived to explain the phenomenon is generally referred to as
the Ghyben-Herzberg relation which is derived from the following basis as
shown in Figure (2.2).



Figure (2.2) Idealized Sketch of Freshwater-Saltwater Distribution in an
Unconfined Aquifer to Illustrate the Ghyben-Herzberg Relation

27
In the coastal cross-section of unconfined aquifer depicted in Figure (2.2),
the total hydrostatic pressure (P) at points A and B is given by Equation
(2.1) and (2.2) respectively.

s s
h g P
A
= (2.1)

s f f f
h g h g + = P
B
(2.2)

f
and
s
are the freshwater and saltwater density, h
f
and h
s
are shown in
Figure (2.2) and g is the acceleration of gravity. The hydrostatic balance
at the interface leads to the well-known Ghyben-Herzberg formula.

P
A
= P
B


s S s f f f
h g h g h g = +

or in a simpler form
f
f s
f
s
h h

= (2.3)

Taking an average value of
f
= 1.000 and
s
= 1.025 g/cm
3
will lead to

f s
h h 40 = (2.4)

From the Ghyben-Herzberg formula it is important to note that the
freshwater and saltwater equilibrium requires that the water table or
piezometric surface should lie above sea level and the water table should
slope towards the sea. If not, saltwater will advance directly inland
causing the unintended sea water intrusion. The formula also contains a
sever oversimplification because it implies that there is no vertical head
gradient (Dupuit assumption). The most obvious erroneous result of this
assumption is that the thickness of the freshwater zone is represented as
zero at the shoreline where the water table elevation is zero. However,
the fact that freshwater is discharging from the system indicates that it
must have some finite thickness at the shore to act as an exit window.

Hubbert Theory of the Dynamics of Saltwater-Freshwater Interfaces

During the 1930s Muskat and Hubbert studied the dynamics of saltwater
interfaces. Both showed that the continuity of pressure in the flow field
must be maintained across the assumed interface. Thus, the interface
can be treated as a boundary surface that couples two separate fields.
Hubbert showed that if a potential function (head) is defined for each
fluid, the equation governing the interface could be derived in the
following manner.

28



By defining the freshwater head, h
f
, as

Z
g
P
h
f
f
+ =

and the saltwater head h
s
, as

Z
g
P
h
s
s
+ =

where h
f
and h
s
are measured from the same datum and Z is the
elevation (above the datum) of the point at which the head is measured;
P is the fluid pressure at the point of measurement and g is the
acceleration of gravity. Equating these two expressions gives the well-
known Hubbert dynamic formula:

f
f
s
f
h h

=
s
f
s
s
Z (2.5)

This formula defines the position of the interface under equilibrium
conditions, that is when the saltwater is stationary or when both fluids are
in motion.


Glover Formula of the Dynamics of Freshwater

With the theory of Hubbert as a foundation and with accurate field
description of the freshwater and saltwater behavior in coastal aquifers,
several analytical solutions were developed to estimate the saltwater-
freshwater interface under different hydrologic conditions.

In 1959, Glover developed a formula to describe the sharp interface in a
coastal aquifer that accounts for the movement and discharge of
freshwater toward the sea (Glover 1959). When dynamic factors are
considered, it is found that freshwater flows through a narrow gap
between fresh/saltwater interfaces and the water table outcrops at the
coast as shown in Figure (2.3), where G =
f
/ (
s
-
f
) and Z is the
interface elevation. The mathematical formula that determines the
location of the interface under the effect of the freshwater flow to the sea
is given as:


29
0
2
2
2 2
2
=
|
.
|

\
|

K
Q
X
K
Q
Z
o o
(2.6)

Where X represents a distance measured horizontally landward from the
shoreline [L]; Z represents distance measured vertically downward from
the sea level [L]; Q represents the freshwater flow per unit length of the
shoreline [L
2
T
-1
]; K is the hydraulic conductivity of the freshwater zone
[LT
-1
] and o =
f
/ (
s
-
f
) ~ 40 for ordinary saltwater. It should be noted
that the pattern of flow described by Glover is based on the assumption
that saltwater is essentially static.


Henrys Model to Describe the Mixing Process between Freshwater and Saltwater
in Coastal Aquifers.

All the aforementioned solutions accounts for the advection dominated
systems where a distinct interface between the saltwater and freshwater
exists. In 1960, Henry made the first attempt to quantitatively determine
the effects of dispersion and density differences on the seawater
encroachment. The main contribution of Henrys work was that it
cooperated Coopers hypothesis of considering the mixing process of
freshwater and saltwater and open up a new approach which uses the
advection-dispersion equation (miscible fluids) instead of the sharp
interface (immiscible fluids) approach. Results of Henrys analysis for his
idealized mathematical model are depicted in Figure (2.4). Henrys
solution required the simultaneous solution of the flow equation and the
transport equation which are linked through the fluid density and
concentration state.

Numerical Models of sea water intrusion

With the exception of Henry 1960, all of the available analytical solutions
take the sharp interface approach. In addition, the models are based on
simple assumptions about geometry (infinitely deep or of constant
thickness), properties (homogeneous and isotropic) and simple boundary
conditions. if these assumptions are not made it would be difficult, if not
impossible to solve the governing equations analytically. In real situations
where both freshwater and saltwater are in motion and the aquifer
characteristics are complicated, numerical solutions are strongly required.
In seawater intrusion problems, numerical models are defined as FULLY
MIXED and SHARP INTERFACE models.

2.2.5.1 Sharp Interface Models

Simulation of the freshwater-saltwater interface in coastal aquifers
requires a simultaneous solution of the equations that describe the

30
freshwater flow and the saltwater flow. These two equations are
coupled by an interface boundary, which satisfies the Hubbert
equilibrium theory. The governing equations are solved using the
numerical methods such as finite difference, finite element and
boundary integral equation methods.

A schematic diagram and nomenclature of the sharp interface in an
unconfined coastal aquifer are shown in Figure (2.5). The vertically
averaged continuity equations for transient flow condition with fresh
groundwater pumping are given by:

For saltwater domain:

( )
t
h
t
hs
) 1 ( B S
y
h
B K
y x
h
B K
x
f
s s
s
s y
s
s x
s s
c
c

c
c
+ + =
|
|
.
|

\
|
c
c
c
c
+
|
|
.
|

\
|
c
c
c
c
o | o | (2.7)



Figure (2.3) Flow Pattern in Coastal Aquifer (Modified from Glover, 1959)
Land Surface
Sea
Level
Salt Water
Fresh Water
Interface
Shore Line
Stream Line
Equipotential line
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1.0
X
o
Z
o

31


Figure (2.4) Flow and Salt Concentration Patterns in an Idealized Mathematical
Model of Henry: (A) Streamlines and (B) Isochlors (Modified from Reilly and
Goodman, 1985)


For freshwater domain:

( )
f w
s f
f f
f
f y
f
f x
) Q (
t
h
) 1 (
t
h
B S
y
h
B K
y x
h
B K
x
f f
+
c
c
+
c
c
+ =
|
|
.
|

\
|
c
c
c
c
+
|
|
.
|

\
|
c
c
c
c
o | o | (2.8)


where K is the hydraulic conductivity [L/T]; B is the fresh or the saltwater
thickness [L]; h is the vertically averaged head [L]; | is the aquifer
porosity; S is the aquifer specific storage [L
-1
]; o is the density difference
ratio
|
|
.
|

\
|

f s
f


; is the fluid density [M/L
3
]; (Q
w
)
f
is the freshwater
pumping/recharge rate [T
-1
]; t is time [T] and (
f
)
,
(
s
) subscripts refer to

32
freshwater and saltwater respectively and x and y subscripts refer to
directions. The two equations presented above are coupled by equating
the pressure across the interface such that:


f s
h h ) 1 ( Z o o + = (2.9)

where Z is the interface elevation measured below the mean sea level.
To determine the position of the sharp interface at different time
intervals, Equations (2.7) and (2.8) are solved simultaneously using
either the finite element or finite difference methods. In order to obtain a
unique solution for the governing equations described earlier, both
boundary and initial conditions should be specified at the model
boundaries.




Figure (2.5) Schematic Diagram of a Typical Cross Section
of an Unconfined Coastal Aquifer, Sakr (1992).


2.2.5.2 Freshwater-Saltwater Interface in the Nile Delta Aquifer

To describe the geometry and position of the mixing zone between the
freshwater and the saltwater in the Nile Delta aquifer, salinity data is required in
the three dimensions to represent both the lateral and vertical extent of this
zone. It is worth to mention that before 1996, there was not any monitoring
system for seawater intrusion except for some shallow wells to monitor the top
portion of the aquifer. The collected data from such shallow wells indicated that
the salinity distribution in the Quaternary aquifer is very complicated to describe
and raised a lot of concerns. The existing drainage and irrigation systems, the
return flow from irrigation, the dissolution of the salt in the clay layer overlaying

33
the aquifer and the historical geologic evolution have direct impact on the salinity
distribution.

To better understand the nature of the mixing zone between the freshwater and
the saltwater, three deep observation wells were drilled at Qtour (located 50 km
south of the Mediterranean Sea) to a depth of 225, 400 and 600 meters.
Respectively, the field measurements in the three wells revealed that the water
salinity is 2000, 15,000 and 60,000 ppm while the water level is 2.6, 3.1 and
11.5 meters measured from the sea level (Sakr 2004). The deeper well is fully
penetrating the Quaternary aquifer and tapping the lower Basal aquifer. The
objective of this well was to investigate the hydrochemical and the hydraulic
characteristics of the underneath formation. The increase in the hydraulic head
with depth in the Quaternary aquifer indicates that there is a saltwater-
freshwater circulation and the freshwater is pushing the saltwater seaward.

Using the available data from the deep oil boreholes and after calibrating these
data, the salinity distribution along the entire thickness of the aquifer was
constructed. Figure (2.6) represents the salinity distribution across the middle
region of the delta. The salinity distribution indicates that the transition zone of
brackish water (concentration from 2000 to 10,000 ppm) and saltwater
(concentration greater than 10,000 ppm) forms a wedge extending into the
aquifer to a distance of 90 km from the coast. Using the Ghyben-Herzberg
assumption, the historical records of the measured water levels revealed a
freshwater-saltwater interface as shown in Figure (2.6). The proximity of the
sharp interface position with the brackish water zone validates the use of the
sharp interface model to simulate the flow pattern in the Nile Delta aquifer and to
estimate the movement of the assumed sharp interface under any proposed
scenarios.

0 20,000 40,000 60,000 80,000 100,000 120,000
Distance in meter
D
e
p
t
h

b
e
l
o
w

s
e
a

l
e
v
e
l
,

m
Q
t
o
u
r
M
e
d
i
t
e
r
r
a
n
e
a
n

S
e
a
D
e
l
t
a

B
a
r
r
a
g
e
Base of Quaternary
Assumed sharp interface position
Salinity, ppm
0
-200
-400
-600
-800
-1000
mean sea level


Figure (2.6) Salinity Distribution along a Vertical Cross Section through the Middle Delta
(Sakr, 2004).

34

For the groundwater wells located within the Quaternary aquifer, the temporal
variation of the water salinity is an indicator for the impact of the seawater
intrusion. Historical records showed that salinity is changing as a result of the
water levels in the Nile and the irrigation canals. Between 1957 and 1984, the
water quality analysis indicated that the groundwater salinity was improving with
time and the freshwater is pushing the saline water seaward. It was also
reported that the groundwater heads increased as a result of the construction of
the Aswan High Dam. In 1985, the groundwater salinity increased in some
shallow wells as a result of the groundwater over pumping and reducing the Nile
water flow during the 1980s drought. In 1990, the groundwater salinity
decreased again when the Nile flow was back to its normal rate and due to the
excess irrigation water especially in the fringes. In 2000, groundwater salinity
increased again in the eastern and western fringes due to over pumping.

To simulate the Nile Delta aquifer system taking into consideration all the
hydrologic complications is not a straightforward task. Therefore, assumptions
should be made according to the objective of the simulation. The first attempt to
simulate the Nile Delta aquifer and to account for the seawater intrusion was
carried out by Farid, 1985. In this research he assumed a sharp interface that
exists between the two fluids and this interface is static. Nevertheless, this
model is considered the platform for managing the Nile Delta aquifer. Darwish
(1994) and Gaame (2000) simulated the mixing zone between the two fluids
using the USGS 2-dimensional cross sectional model (SUTRA). Using this
model they predicted the aquifer response for different operational scenarios.
Lack of salinity data, which is required for model calibration and verification,
made the results questionable. However, the results are still acceptable for the
planning purposes.

When there is no historical record or enough data to describe the aquifer
system, analytical models provide an extremely useful first order approximation
of a field problem. An example is the impact of sea level rise on the movement
and geometry of the mixing zone between the two fluids in costal aquifers. Since
there are no historical records for such phenomenon, analytical solutions are
ideal for such problem. Again, there is no such analytical solution that accounts
for the mixing phenomenon between the two fluids. Therefore the sharp
interface analytical models are the only available models that can be used to
simulate the impact of the sea level rise on the interface position and movement.

35
Chapter III

3 Coastal Zones ulnerability to Sea Level Rise (SLR)

3.1 Introduction:

Similar to other deltas worldwide, the Nile Delta is presently subjected to changes;
including shoreline changes either erosion or accretion, subsidence of the delta, and
sea level rise, due to climate changes. The impacts of climate changes on the Nile
Delta have been addressed on local and international level as the Nile Delta coastal
zones are vulnerable to sea level rise. Accordingly, the main objective of the current
work is to assess the vulnerability of the Nile Delta coastal zone to climate
change/sea level rise. To achieve these objectives, elevation maps through GIS
process were developed. After developing the elevation maps, three scenarios (CoRI,
B1, and A1F1) were introduced to assess the vulnerability for the three Nile Delta
regions. Aerial photos and about two hundred hydrographic profiles were used to
illustrate the vulnerable areas associated with the three scenarios chosen for the
study till the end of the current century.

3.2 Statistical Analyses for Tide Gauges Data and Land Subsidence

Tide gauges measurements at Alexandria, Al-Burullus, and Port Said have been
collected and statistically analyzed to estimate sea level rise (SLR) over the last three
decades at each of these regions. Results indicate that SLR varies from region to
another because of the land subsidence effect. Land subsidence studies revealed
that land subsidence rate is about 0.4 mm/y at Alexandria, 1.2 mm/y at Al-Burullus,
while at Port Said the value is 4.0 mm/y. Estimated average rates for SLR at
Alexandria, Al-Burullus, and Port Said are 1.6, 2.3, 5.3 mm/year respectively. These
values associate the effect of both SLR and land subsidence, Table (3.1).

Table (3.1) Sea Level Rise and Subsidence Rates at the Nile Delta Coastal zone

Region Alexandria Al-Burullus Port Said
Tidal rate (mmly) 1.6 2.3 5.3
Subsidence (mm/y) 0.4 1.1 4.0
SLR (mm/y) 1.2 1.2 1.3

3.3 Expected Sea Level Rise till 2100

The projected values of the mean surface air temperature, 2000-2100, for the low
scenario (B1) and high scenario A1F1 of Special Report on Emission Scenario
(IPCC-2007) are given in table (3.2).





36
Table (3.2) Projected Values of Mean Air Temperature

Temperature Change for Years 2025, 2050, 2075 and 2100 (C)
2000 Scenario 2025 2050 2075 2100
0.6 (C) B1 0.9 1.3 1.8 1.8
0.6 (C) A1F1 1.2 2.2 3.2 4.0

The average increase in global warming at the end of the twenty century was about
0.6 C (IPCC- 2007). Assuming linear variation of global warming with time during the
last two decades, the value of 0.006 C/y could be accepted as the average annual
temperature change during the last century. Assuming that the land subsidence will
occur with the same rates, the projected average sea level rise at the end of years
2025, 2050, 2075, and 2100 has been estimated by applying the projected average
surface warming given in table (3.2).

3.4 Vulnerability Assessment

VA Methodology

After creating elevation maps for the Nile Delta, three scenarios have been
introduced to assess the vulnerability for the three Nile Delta regions. The three
scenarios named; CoRI scenario which assumes the same increase rate of SLR till
2100; B1 and A1F1 scenarios of IPCC.

In these three scenarios, Alexandria represents the western region of the Nile Delta,
Al-Burullus represents the middle Delta region, and Port Said represents the eastern
Nile Delta region. Nile River branches have been considered as the natural divide
between the three regions. In order to present the actual situation in the coastal
zones, natural and man-made supporting systems have been considered in the
modeling processes. Simulated SLR rates for Nile Delta regions by the three
scenarios are presented in Table (3.3)

Table (3.3) Projected Sea Level Rise (cm), (Base year is 2000).
(After Elshinnawy I. A. 2008)

City Scenario 2025 2050 2075 2100
Port Said
Eastern Region
CoRI 13.25 26.5 39.75 53
B1 18.12 39.5 64.3 72.5
A1F1 27.9 68.8 109.6 144
Al-Burullus
Middle Region
CoRI 5.75 11.5 17.25 23
B1 8.75 19.5 32.25 35
A1F1 14.75 37.5 60.3 79
Alezandria
Western Region
CoRI 4 8 12 16
B1 7 16 27 28
A1F1 13 34 55 72


37
Results

CoRI scenario

Results of CoRI scenario indicate that the sandbar located between Al-Manzalla Lake
and the Mediterranean in the east region is vulnerable to SLR. Regarding the middle
region of the Delta, the area located between Gamasa City and New Damietta is also
vulnerable as well as Al-Burullus sandbar. Estimated areas expected to be flooded by
sea level rise till the end of the current century in the Nile Delta coasts are illustrated
in Figure (3.1) and presented in table (3.4).

Table (3.4) Total flooded area and its percentage to the Nile Delta area
According to CoRI measurements till 2100

Year 2025 2050 2075 2100
Total Area Flooded (km2) 93.68 134.0 139.2 183.8
% of the Nile Delta Area 0.37 0.54 0.56 0.74


B1 Scenario

Results of B1 scenario presented in table (3.5) and figure (3.1) indicate the same
trend of vulnerability in the coastal zone of the Nile Delta as mentioned in CoRI
scenario with some increase in the vulnerable areas in the middle region.

Table (3.5) Total flooded area and its percentage to the Nile Delta area (B1 scenario)

Year 2025 2050 2075 2100
Total Area Affected (km2) 118.5 169.45 221.83 243.1
% of the Nile Delta Area 0.45 0.68 0.89 0.97


A1F1 Scenario

Results of the this scenario presented in table (3.65) and figure (3.1) represent the
actual situation that the Nile Delta could face in terms of flooding considering the fact
that the boundaries of the lakes are above zero level and the low lands at Abu-Quir
Bay are protected by Mohammed Ali sea wall constructed in 1830.

Table (3.6) Total affected area and its percentage to the Nile Delta area
(A1F1 scenario)

Year 2025 2050 2075 2100
Total Area Affected (km2) 152.86 256.27 450 761.4
Total % of the Nile Delta
Area
0.61 1.03 1.8 3.01

38
According to previous analysis, it's concluded that the vulnerable areas in Nile Delta
coastal zones vary from scenario to another. Results of CoRI scenario that depend
on actual measurements are compatible with results obtained by B1 scenario.

The vulnerable areas account for less than 1% of the Nile Delta area for CoRI and B1
scenario and reaches up to 3% for the worst case represented by A1F1 scenario of
IPCC. These results are based on the assumption that the natural and man-made
protection systems are functioning well till the end of the century.

Although the vulnerable areas (>1% - 3%) seem small, the consequences of SLR
could be sever on sea water intrusion, soil salinity, water quality, waves & current
pattern, shore line retreat and erosion pattern.



Figure (3.1) Simulated flooded areas due to SLR till 2011
by CoRI, B1, and A1F1 Scenarios



39


Chapter IV

4 Impact of Sea Level Rise on the Coastal Aquifer of Nile Delta

4.1 Theory of Sea Water Intrusion

Being hydraulically connected with the sea, groundwater in coastal aquifer has
special characteristics and flow conditions. Basically the denser saltwater tends to lay
under the less in density freshwater with a zone of mixing known as the transition or
dispersion zone formed between the two fluids. Equilibrium of the fluids dynamic
pattern is principally governed by, given certain medium/soil characteristics, rates of
groundwater recharge/withdrawal and sea level. However, under normal conditions,
fresh water flows from inland aquifers to the sea.

Early researches have commonly dealt with position movement of the
saltwater/freshwater interface in relation to freshwater recharge into the aquifer
versus withdrawals and resulting advance or retreat in position. Recently, however,
climate change and potential sea level rise added a new dimension to consider in this
arena. Climate change is likely to have impressive effects on the hydrologic cycle
through altered precipitation, evapotranspiration, runoff and soil moisture
patternsetc. These changes will lead to altered groundwater recharge and flow
regime as well as rate of saltwater intrusion in coastal aquifers.

4.2 Saltwater/Freshwater Interface Dynamics

Early studies on salt water intrusion were raised from concerns of over extraction of
fresh ground water near coastal region. Main objective has been to reach safe
withdrawal level that balances the recharge rates so that saltwater/freshwater
interface advancement inland, along with accompanied threats of increased salinity
levels, can be avoided. Among the reviewed approaches, following is a brief of
selective ones considered in this report.


Ghyben-Herzberg Formula

Despite the oversimplifications encountered in the Ghyben-Herzberg
formula, this formula could be used to understand the interface behavior
under different hydrologic conditions. This Equation estimates the interface
elevation for a given freshwater head at any point in the aquifer. The
equation is written as:


f
h Z o = (4.1)

|
|
.
|

\
|

=
f s
f


o
(4.2)

40

where Z is the interface elevation measured downward from the mean sea
level, h
f
is the freshwater head measured above the mean sea level and o is
given by Equation (4.2). The Ghyben-Herzberg equation is only valid when
both freshwater and saltwater are stationary which unlikely to occur in
nature.

To evaluate the impact of the sea level rise (Ah
s
) on the movement of the
interface AZ, the hydrostatic equilibrium between the two fluids is assumed,
Figure (4.1). Applying the Ghyben-Herzberg formula for each state will lead
to the following expressions:

For the present situation

o
f o
h Z o =

For the new situation with the sea level rise

n
f n
h Z o = .

Then

) ( ) (
s f f n o
h h h Z Z Z
n o
A ~ = = A o o (3.3)


Figure (4.1): Applying the Ghyben-Herzberg Formula to the sea level rise.


41

From the above, it is obvious that using the Ghyben-Herzberg formula allows
predicting the position of the sharp interface between the two fluids at any
given point. The major assumption in the above analysis is that the
freshwater domain remains static without any change in its hydraulic head
values. Although this assumption is not true but still provides a preliminary
assessment to what could happen when sea level rises by a value of (Ah
s
).


Glover Solution

In 1959, Glover developed an analytical model that describes the sharp
interface position in coastal aquifers. This model accounts for the movement
and discharge of freshwater towards the sea. When flow dynamics are
considered in such systems, it is found that freshwater flows through a
narrow gap between the interfaces and the water table at the coast. The flow
pattern described by Glover is based upon the assumption that saltwater is
essentially static. The Glover model is expressed as follows:

0
2
2
2 2
2
=
|
.
|

\
|

K
Q
X
K
Q
Z
o o
(4.4)



From the previous analysis it is worth mentioning that the Ghyben-Herzberg
model assumes that both freshwater and saltwater are static. On the other
hand, the Glover model accounts for the freshwater movement towards the
sea while the saltwater remains static. Also, the boundary conditions at the
coast for the Glover model are more realistic than the Ghyben-Herzberg
model. The two analytical models indicated that there is an impact on the
Nile Delta aquifer system if sea level rises by one meter. The sea level rise
or the inland movement of the shoreline will cause the freshwater-saltwater
interface to move inland by approximately 5 km. Except for the East Delta
cross section, the two models showed little differences in the interface
position. The high discrepancies for the Eastern Delta cross section are due
to the existence of two saltwater boundaries, which are the Mediterranean
Sea from the North and the Suez Canal from the East. These two boundaries
were not considered in the analytical models. Therefore, numerical models
are needed to simulate such complexity.

4.3 Sharp Interface Numerical Model

The above mentioned analytical solutions assume sharp interface with steady
state flow conditions and fairly simplified aquifer characteristics, geometry,
heterogeneity, anisotropy and boundary condition. However, in real situations
both freshwater and saltwater are in motion and the aquifer characteristics are
complicated (Sakr, 2005). While many approaches follow the assumed sharp

42
interface for simplifying computations, yet considering that the boundary
between saltwater and freshwater is not sharply distinct and a zone of
dispersion or transition zone exist have been covered in certain researches.

A number of studies have presented numerical modeling approaches for
seawater intrusion, while considering either fully mixed or sharp
saltwater/freshwater interface condition (details can be found in Sakr, 1992 and
Sakr, 2005). Governing equations are customary simultaneously solved using
numerical methods such as finite difference, finite element and boundary
integral equation methods (Sakr, 2005). In 1992, another numerical model for
saltwater/freshwater interface predictions (GWCH2O) has been introduced by
Sakr, using the Finite Element method. Applications of GWCH2O model in Nile
Delta aquifer have been presented in studies by Sakr et al. (Sakr et al., 2004
and Sakr 2005).

The simplified analytical solutions are widely-applied and found satisfactory in
many early researches. Therefore, and with the limitation in historical field
data, this research study is presenting an application of potential
saltwater/freshwater interface movement and groundwater level elevation
resulting from predicted sea level rise, using Ghyben-Herzberg and Glover
approaches.

4.4 Results and analysis for a pilot area within the Study Area

Studies curried out by Coastal Research Institute (CoRI, 2012) with the
cooperation of Drainage Research Institute (DRI) and Research Institute of
Ground Water (RIGW) revealed that the Groundwater flow is directed from
south to north where the Piezometric level decreases gradually from more than
15m + MSL at Cairo City to less than 1m + MSL near the Mediterranean coast
(Sakr, 2005 and RIGW, 2002).

To investigate the potential impact of Sea Level Rise (SLR) on shifting
saltwater/freshwater interface position and consequent elevation of
groundwater levels, predicted rise in sea levels for years 2025, 2050, 2075 and
2100 have been considered. Additionally, to investigate the salinity distribution
and to calibrate the model, water salinity samples were taken from locations
across the shore line as presented in figure (4.2).

According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth
Assessment Report (IPCC-AR4, 2007), predictions of Sea Level Rise by A1F1
scenario have been used in applying the analytical methods and concluding
inland/upward movement of the saltwater/freshwater interface.

With the predicted Sea Level Rise, shoreline is expected to move inland at
variable rates in relation to the topography and, accordingly, new boundary
conditions are formed.

43



Figure (4.2) Location of salinity measurement points


Expected water heads in different time periods for shallow and deep ground
water have been simulated as shown in figures (4.3) and (4.4). Simulations
indicate that water table of the shallow aquifer that affects plants root zone will
raise to less than 50 cm from ground level. To simplify modeling process,
simulations have been carried out with SLR increase of 0.5 and 1.0 meter as
average values for the three regions of Nile Delta. Simulations also have been
modeled for one of the most vulnerable areas to SLR located between
Gamassa Ciry and Ras-El Bar city as a pilot area. The pilot area chosen has
been extensively investigated by CoRI for such studies as well as the coastal
hydro-dynamic processes.

Simulations of salinity distribution presented in figures (4.5) and (4.6) indicate
high water salinity for shallow aquifer in the coastal strip that would affect the
root zone. Knowing that water depth will be less than 50 cm from ground level,
it is worth mentioning that the case will be more serious as the area is subject
to up-coining pressure of groundwater.


44


Figure (4.3) Calculated heads for shallow groundwater (CoRI, 2012)


Figure (4.4) Simulated Head of Deep Groundwater (CoRI, 2012)

45


Figure (4.5) Simulated salinity concentration of shallow groundwater (CoRI, 20012)






















Figure (4.6) Simulated salinity concentration of deep groundwater (CoRI, 2012)

46
4.5 Remarks on results:

Results illustrated in figures (4.7) & (4.8) conclude that the effect of sea level
rise will affect the groundwater aquifer system to a certain limit. In this respect,
the applied mechanism of sea level rise is assigned to the model as a vertical
component only as data collected within the project do not present the actual
situation of the aquifer system. In addition, the selected simulated time of the
model was chosen by trial and error methods till the model reached the steady
state. In general this output is satisfied at the present time and can be taken as
an indication for the predicted impact of sea level rise on both quality and
quantity groundwater system.

As the process of sea water intrusion is a dynamic process, the expected
variation of heads after 30 years due to sea level rise will lead to a change in
head ranging from 0.1 to 0.5 meters from land levels. The change expected in
groundwater salinity will be marked only at a distance of 7 km from the shore
line (southwards) and will affect the groundwater aquifer system to a certain
limit.






Figure (4.7) change in salinity for the shallow aquifer for 0. 5m SLR (CoRI, 2012)



47



Figure (4.8) change in salinity for shallow aquifer for 1 m SLR (CoRI, 2012)



4.6 Conclusion

The mixing zone between freshwater and saltwater in the Nile Delta aquifer is not
accurately represented due to the lack of water quality data. To simulate this
mixing zone an assumption was made that there is a distinct sharp interface
between the two fluids. Using the available field data and some theoretical
hypothesis, this assumption was proved to be valid. Not too many analytical
models were developed to present the position of the interface and its
movement. This is due to the fact that the sea water intrusion is not a straight
forward phenomenon and has its complexity in terms of the hydraulic properties,
boundary conditions ...etc. Therefore, numerical models were developed instead
for better simulation of the aquifer conditions.

In this study, three analytical models and one numerical model were used to
evaluate the sharp interface between the freshwater and saltwater. The
evaluation includes the position of the interface and its movement under present
conditions and for the effect of the possible sea level rise. The model results
indicated that the predicted maximum sea level rise of 1.0 meter will definitely
has an impact on the movement of the sharp interface, water salinity and shallow
water table.

The interface movement is eventually reducing the groundwater potential in the
coastal zones of Nile Delta. It was found from the models results that the
interface will move vertically by an average value of 0.5 meter. For the inland

48
movement, the interface will move for a distance that varies between 5 km to 9
km (7 km on average) from its present position.

49
Chapter V
Monitoring of Sea Water Intrusion and Groundwater Quality
5.1 Locations of the observation wells

A detailed investigation was done by RIGW to determine the location of observation
gaps in the groundwater monitoring network. According to existing observation wells
in the Nile Delta, RIGW proposed drilling of 10 wells with different depths located in
the gaps. The exact location of these wells needs a detailed Geo-electric and Geo-
physical survey. In addition, the assessment of the stratigraphy of the well drilling,
exact depths and location of screens will be identified. Table (5.1) summarizes the
preliminary locations and depths for the observation wells needed. Figure (5.1) shows
the location of the existing and proposed observation wells used to monitor the sea
water intrusion in the Nile Delta Aquifer

5.2 Background Monitoring

According to the objectives of the project, water quality monitoring would cover the
water column to indicate source of pollution that could happen from land use or as a
result of sea water intrusion. A wide variety of chemical, physical, and biological
contaminants may affect ground-water quality. As a result, background and ambient-
ground-water-monitoring programs are designed to establish baseline water-quality
characteristics and to investigate long-term trends in coastal groundwater conditions.
The parameters measured in baseline-monitoring programs provide a set of
descriptive data on general ground-water conditions.

Table (5.1) preliminary locations and depths for the observation wells:
Number Well Location Governorate Proposed well depth
1 Faraskour Dommita 100
2 Sun El Hagar Elsharkia 150
3 Faqous Elsharkia 150
4 Alstamony Eldaqahlia 150
5 Alhamoul Kafr Elsheik 150
6 Elmahala Elgharbia 150
7 Tanta Elgharbia 150
8 Altawfeqia Elbehera 150
9 Etay Albaroud Elbehera 150
10 Abou Keer Alexandria 150

50

Proposed wells in Red
Existed wells in Green

Figure (5.1) Location of observation wells


5.3 Monitoring for Specific Land-Use Impacts on Ground-Water Quality

Monitoring programs also typically focus on assessing the impact from contaminant
sources that are related to specific land uses to indicate the impact of irrigation
application on water level and water quality. For these regional or localized
monitoring efforts, monitoring parameters are identified on the basis of a thorough
understanding of the resource to be evaluated and the sources of contamination.


5.3.1 Selection of Groundwater-Quality Indicators

One of the key elements in the design of a water-quality-monitoring program, whether
the program is focused on background conditions or land use impacts, is the
selection of the properties, elements, and compounds (indicators) to be measured.

Ground- and surface-water quality may be characterized by literally thousands of
indicators. Selection of indicators for monitoring programs should be based on their

51
relevance to important water-quality issues, such as human health protection, the
monitoring objectives, and the existence of appropriate analytical methodologies. For
some water-quality issues, the choice of indicators to be monitored is a simple task;
for example, the substances relevant to the issues of nutrient enrichment and salinity
are of limited number, and their chemical analysis is inexpensive.
.
5.3.2 Criteria for Indicator Selection

Indicators appropriate for ground-water-quality monitoring should meet two general
criteria. First, a parameter should be a candidate for monitoring because it fulfills any
of or all the following:
- Impairs the suitability of the water for general use; for example, hardness, iron,
manganese, taste, odor, and color.
- Is of interest in surface water and may be transported from ground- to surface-
water systems; for example, nitrogen species ammonia, nitrite, and nitrate.
- Is an important "support variable" for interpreting the results of physical and
chemical measurements; for example, temperature, specific conductance,
major ion balance, depth to the water table, and selected isotopes.

Second, analysis of the candidate indicator should be affordable by using well-
established analytical methods at appropriate minimum-detection and reporting levels
necessary to achieve the objectives of study.

Based on these criteria, the following general groups of indicators should be
considered for ground-water-monitoring programs to indicate land use and irrigation
application.
- Field measurements (temperature, specific conductance, pH, dissolved
oxygen, alkalinity, depth to water).
- Major inorganic ions and dissolved.
- Nutrients.
- Dissolved organic carbon.
- Pesticides.
- Volatile organic chemicals.
- Metals and trace elements.
- Bacteria.
The main indicator for sea water intrusion is the chloride. Sea water intrusion into a
coastal aquifer depends on many factors, including:
- Total rate of groundwater withdrawals compared to recharge rates
- Presence of freshwater drainage canals that lack salinity control structures
- Distance of stresses, such as wells and drainage canals, from the source(s) of
saltwater intrusion
- The length of time that aquifer levels are lowered.
- Fluctuations in tide stages
- Sea level rise

52
- Seasonal and annual variations in groundwater recharge and
evapotranspiration rates


5.3.3 Monitoring chloride to determine the extent of saltwater
intrusion

According to the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), no standard practice exists
for defining the transition zone. However, the USGS typically characterizes the
transition zone as having total dissolved solid (TDS) concentrations ranging
from about 1,000 to 35,000 mg/L and chloride concentrations ranging from
about 250 to 19,000 mg/L.

Chloride is the main constituent of seawater with an average concentration of
19,000 mg/L (Hem 1992). Due to the high concentration of chloride in
seawater, the chloride concentration of groundwater samples is the most
commonly used indicator of saltwater occurrence and intrusion into coastal
aquifers.

Specific conductance (SC) of groundwater also can be used to identify
saltwater intrusion because it is a direct measure of TDS and salinity. SC also
has been shown to be strongly correlated to chloride concentrations. Chloride,
one of the main constituents of seawater and a charged ionic species, makes
water conductive. As chloride concentrations increase, so does the solutions
conductivity. A rather well-defined relationship exists for SC and chloride (Hem
1992; Christensen et al. 1999), which implies a linear relationship between
these two parameters.

The USGS notes that SC and chloride usually have a long and reliable analytical
record, and are useful for evaluating long-term trends. Using chloride concentration
as an indicator of saltwater intrusion offers several advantages:
- Both SC and chloride are chemically and biologically conservative, or stable,
water quality indicators and tracers.
- Chloride moves at about the same rate as the intruding seawater and is not
retarded by the aquifer matrix (Roberts et al. 1986).
- Circulation of the chloride ion occurs largely through physical processes rather
than chemical or biochemical processes (Hem 1992).
- Chloride is least affected by movement away from the source and provides a
true representation of contamination levels

Several analytical methods are available for determining chloride concentration.
Chloride ion-selective electrodes (ISEs) can be used to continuously monitor chloride
in the field. Figure (5.2) illustrates vertical up-coning of saltwater that results in
chloride increase in water abstracted from coastal well.


53


Figure (5.2): Vertical movement or up-coning of saltwater.



5.3.4 Real-time, long-term monitoring of chloride concentration

Chloride-concentration profiles of several monitoring sites distributed along a
coastline can determine changes in the transition zone and the degree of saltwater
intrusion. Continuous, long-term monitoring of SC can alert water managers to a
potential saltwater intrusion problem and upconing of saltwater resulting from aquifer
withdrawals. Continuous chloride monitoring via SC can be used to:
Understand the extent and degree of saltwater intrusion
Evaluate the relative quality or potability of water
Monitor acute and chronic exposure levels in freshwater supplies
Evaluate aquifer recharge and recovery operations
Trace chloride concentrations in groundwater studies
Conduct chloride profiling

To monitor saltwater conditions in the coastal zone, some of the activities of the
Sound Science Initiative are:
- Construction of temporary monitoring wells offshore where saltwater enters the
Nile Delta aquifer system as mentioned earlier.

54
- Development and expansion of a network of ground-water monitoring wells
and an associated information database to measure and report changes in
ground-water levels and chloride concentrations;
- Development of ground-water flow and solute-transport models to investigate
the paths and rates of ground-water flow and saltwater intrusion in the coastal
aquifer
- Evaluation of alternative and supplemental sources of water such as seepage
ponds, rivers and streams, reclaimed water, and ground water withdrawn from
aquifers other than the Nile Delta coastal aquifer; and
- Feasibility studies and assessments of engineered and non-engineered
methods that might be used to prevent saltwater intrusion.

5.4 Numerical modeling:

The data that will be collected from the sea water intrusion monitoring network will be
used to determine accurately the interface between the sea water and the fresh water
in the groundwater aquifer using numerical models. Numerical models are, generally,
required to solve complex geometry, boundary conditions and equations describing
coupled and uncoupled processes in heterogeneous and anisotropic formations
under various initial and boundary conditions. In most numerical models the
governing equations are formulated to simultaneous equations relating unknown
variables at discrete nodal and different times. Many powerful methods are available
for this purpose. The various numerical models differ mainly in the method of
numerically formulating the problem. Numerical models for groundwater flow and
solute transport are important tools for helping decision makers in planning for future
management and development policies taking the environmental aspects into
considerations.

Visual MODFLOW Pro.V.4.2 is an appropriate numerical model to simulate the
problem as the most complete and user friendly, modeling environment for practical
applications in three-dimensional groundwater flow and contaminant transport
simulation. This software developed by Waterloo Hydro-geologic Inc. The SEAWAT
engine is used to allow modeling of variable density flow such as seawater intrusion
modeling problems. SEAWAT combines a flow code (MODFLOW) with a solute-
transport code (MT3DMS) to form a single program that solves the coupled flow and
solute-transport equations. It formulates flow equations using mass conservation
instead of volume conservation.





55
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