2014's hottest trends: Tracking the major stories set to shape the consumer landscape in 2014

Jason Mander Future Foundation November 2013

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2014's hottest trends: Tracking the major stories set to shape the consumer landscape in 2014 Jason Mander Future Foundation November 2013

2014's Hottest Trends: Tracking the major stories set to shape the consumer landscape in 2014
Jason Mander The 5 trends you need to know for 2014
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Probability Gets Personal: predicting life events with ever greater accuracy Recovery Blues: financial behaviours acquired in the downturn remain highly influential Catwalk Computing: wearable tech gets more mainstream Once Is Not Enough: evolving life-stages spell the end of age-dependent landmarks Narrative Data: big data generates big, meaningful stories for the consumer

Each year, Future Foundation releases a top trends report highlighting the social, technological and demographic stories we believe will shape the attitudes and behaviours of consumers over the next 12 months. Here we showcase five of our hottest UK trend predictions for 2014. 1. Probability Gets Personal Soon, ignorance will no longer be bliss: it will be impossible. The reason? The rise of smart prediction tools which draw on data about our lives, and those of others with similar demographic profiles/ interests/ histories, to assess the benefits and risks of every life decision and create personalised predictions/ recommendations. Want to know whether a chosen career carries a good chance of long-term success? Whether a certain neighbourhood is likely to see its property values rise in the next five years? Whether someone with your demographic profile and lifestyle habits is likely to contract a disease? And then recover? With ever sharpening accuracy, an algorithm will soon be able to tell you. Of course, the technologies driving this trend are still in their very early stages. And consumer awareness, let alone acceptance, is low. We don't believe we will witness the arrival of a Minority Report-style society in the short-term future. But developments are happening here, and the first consumer-facing applications of this trend are already on the streets. We might look, for example, at 23andMe, a service through which consumers can order a DNA kit, provide a sample of saliva and receive personal health and ancestry reports as well as bespoke recommendations. Asthmapolis is a platform which invites asthma sufferers to use inhalers containing small sensors which broadcast info about when, where and how often the inhalers are being used letting people see the times/ locations/ activities which are helping or aggravating their condition. Elsewhere,
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Good.co sorts job hunters and companies into different personality types to provide scores showing how well the two sides are matched.

It's not hard to see how this sort of service could enter the mainstream. Google Now, for instance, claims it can give people the "right information at the right time" monitoring a user's data such as calendar slots and location to anticipate information that may be useful at a given time (when a flight is delayed, what route to take to a meeting, etc). In future, could such tools anticipate when we might need to protect ourselves from a bout of flu, or when we should be applying for a new job? Very probably. The algorithm will come to know us better than we do. And as it does, concepts such as fate and chance will be redefined. 2. Recovery Blues 2014 will be the year when a more sustained sense of economic recovery takes hold in many Western nations. But any feelings of optimism will be tentative: modest economic growth, static living standards and a deep-rooted caution about personal finances will combine to limit the consumer's confidence. One consequence is that we will not simply snap back to pre-recession patterns. Behaviours acquired during the downturn will remain ingrained in the consumer psyche with discount-hunting, severe price sensitivity, savvy budgeting and relentless value-maximising all remaining prominent.

Source: nVision Research | Base: 1,000 online respondents aged 16+, GB, 2013 But what's particularly striking is how widespread this mindset is: as our chart here shows, consumers in all demographic
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breaks say they intend to be more careful with their money in future. There is relatively little variation by social grade or household income indeed respondents in the top groups express some of the strongest levels of agreement. So too can we note that the overall figure is higher than in 2009 or 2012. Despite a series of more positive headlines about the economy, then, it's clear that consumers have become too accustomed to operating on tight budgets and chasing ultimate value-for-money to abandon such activities, especially now they have seen the benefits they bring. What's more, the 10s will see automated budgeting and financial tools making the process of money management much easier one that requires only minimal personal intervention/attention. Many of us will become default budgeters, with obvious implications for marketing and brand loyalty.

Source: nVision Research | Base: 3,000-5,000 online respondents aged 16+, USA, 2013 3. Catwalk Computing It's hard to avoid the buzz surrounding wearable technology. From Google Glass to smart wristbands and watches, the momentum behind this trend is growing quickly something which will be galvanised further in 2014 as brands look to establish themselves as leading suppliers within an ultra-competitive marketplace. But while some of the more obvious and immediate impacts have already been much discussed from improved navigation to instant access to text messages or social network updates we need to take stock of how quickly wearable tech is likely to enjoy widespread, day-to-day usage as well as the implications this brings for our mobiles and other portable devices. Our most recent wave of research in the UK reveals that there is already a healthy level of interest. Although only a very small minority of consumers say they have so far used a device (defined here as "wearable technology that connects to the internet e.g. a smart watch, a smart wristband, Google Glass"), a further 1 in 5 see appeal (with a predictable rise among Gen Ys as well as smartphone and tablet owners). As the marketing energy behind wearable tech increases, these figures are bound to grow and probably quite quickly.

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Source: nVision Research | Base: 1,000 online respondents aged 16+, GB, 2013 What this means for our underlying attitudes about speed, convenience and levels of connectivity is clear: everything can be and has to be now! All objects have to be super-functional, wired and personalised. And delays and inefficiencies of any type will be increasingly unacceptable. But what of our love affair with the smartphone (and tablet)? We have already witnessed the migration of countless internet activities from fixed to mobile platforms. Now it is plausible that the revolution will enter a new phase, with wearable tech delivering the type of instant, seamless access to information that even mobiles cannot replicate. The Culture of Immediacy trend will be elevated and portable devices will have to compete for attention in ways they have not so far encountered. Certainly, smartphones and tablets will not be eclipsed. But they will have to innovate and evolve to ensure that their appeal is not tarnished or their relevance diminished. 4. Once Is Not Enough Life-stages are changing no single age is any longer defined by a pre-packaged set of expectations and behaviours. A woman has her first child at 20 and her second at 40. More take their first university degree in their late 30s. A female politician becomes a minister for the first time in her 70s. It is not strange for a professional to work at multiple companies rather than commit to one firm for most of their working life. No eyebrows are raised when Gen Ys return to the homes of their parents, or when silver-haired entrepreneurs are born in their 60s (when once they would have settled with their pre-programmed retirement income).

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What we see in these developments is the end of linear lives and age-defined landmarks the death of never again and the rise of starting-over. As this trend plays out, it seems inevitable that age will represent a less and less robust way of segmenting and analysing consumers, or for understanding the attitudes and lifestyles of certain groups. This carries obvious implications for any age-based marketing campaigns, NPD and brand positioning. Such consumer-facing activities will in many contexts need to become increasingly ageless a trend that is already in progress. TK Maxx, for example, uses 85-year-old Daphne Selfe in its latest campaign. Heineken runs a 60+ challenge to find ideas which "better fit the lifestyles and needs of the 60+ generation". Barclays offers a "Springboard Mortgage" so that parents can help their adult children access the property market. Many more such initiatives will follow, speaking increasingly to life-stages rather than simple ages. 5. Narrative Data So far, Big Data has preoccupied brand strategists much more than the consumer on the street. But this is set to change, fuelled in particular by tools and services that convert personal datasets into meaningful and useful insights about our lives and behaviours. Indeed, as information begins to flow seamlessly between platforms / devices and across more and more aspects of our lives, Big Data will generate Big Stories. This is a trend powered by The Quantified Self (the consumer's ability/ willingness to track various aspects of their lives). It heralds a new era of brand engagement, where personal data is analysed and harnessed to create unique experiences tailored to the individual. Companies like TicTrac are leading the field here, promising to analyse the consumer's data and then create valuable insights about their lifestyles ultimately allowing people to "discover what makes them tick". Already, we've seen such a proposition harnessed on Red Bull's Personal Best platform, where individuals can compare their own sporting performances against those of professional athletes. Elsewhere, E.ON has been inviting its customers to "see how much energy you use compared to other similar E.ON customers' homes in your area"; a scheme designed to drive understanding of energy consumption and, ultimately, help people to improve their habits and save money.

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Of course, there is a potential danger here: data overload and/or fatigue could occur all too quickly. But as Big Data initiatives continue to prove their value, this is an area where we have to expect a frenetic level of branded activity in 2014. For the consumer, it will be the year when Big Data = Big Benefits. Other Future Foundation trend predictions for the coming year span a multitude of sectors, ideas and developments, and make essential reading for marketers. They include The Power of Anon (the rise of selective social sharing where anonymity empowers), Wired Guanxi (the move from the cold click to warm, human interactions), The Death of Risk (charting a societywide move from anything considered risky or dangerous to a more curated form of safety), Breaking the Fourth Wall (brands using space to enthral and captivate consumers), The Versat-Aisle Shopper (the consumer expectation for flexible experiences and superior service both on- and offline) and Totally Bespoke (in the age of Big Data, consumers become singles rather than segments). For more information on the trends we expect to be shaping consumer behaviour over the next 12 months, get in touch and ask for a preview of our "Trends for 2014" report; or visit futurefoundation.net/2014s-hottest-trends.

About the author Jason Mander is Head of Insight of Future Foundation. For more information about the Future Foundation, an overview of our nVision service and a wide selection of sample trends, reports and insights, visit www.futurefoundation.net or call Josie Watson on 0203 008 4889. For more information on the Future Foundation's book The Big Lie and to download a free chapter, visit www.thebigliebook.net.

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